2025年美国假日购物预测

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AdobeDigitalInsights|September2025

2025USHoliday

ShoppingForecast

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Methodology

Onlyindustryreportthatmeasuresdirectconsumertransactions

•Over1TrillionvisitstoU.S.retailwebsites

•100millionproductSKUs,across18productcategories

AdobeAnalyticsistheleadingdatainsightstoolforretailers

•85ofthetop100*U.S.InternetretailersuseAdobeExperienceCloudtopowertheirdigitalbusiness

•OnlyAdobecanaccessahighvolumeofconsumertransactions

•Dataisaggregatedandanonymizedtoprovideinsights

Complementarysurveybasedonresponsesfrom5,000U.S.consumers,fieldedbetweenSeptember9thandSeptember16th,2025

Disclaimer:TheinformationandanalysisinthisreleasehavebeenpreparedbyAdobeInc.forinformationalpurposesonlyandmaycontainstatementsaboutfutureeventsthatcoulddifferfromactualresults.AdobeInc.doesnotwarrantthatthematerialcontainedhereinisaccurateorfreeoferrorsandhasnoresponsibilitytoupdateorreviseinformationpresentedherein.AdobeInc.shallnotbeliableforanyrelianceupontheinformationprovidedherein.

*PertheDigitalCommerce360Top500report(2021)

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ExecutiveSummary

•Onlineholidaysalesaresettosurpass$250billionforthefirsttime,drivenbyresilientgrowthacrosscoreretailcategoriesandapronouncedseasonalsurgeabovepre-holidaylevels.

•Mobileisnowthedominantchannelforonlineshoppingyear-round,withitsshareexpectedtoclimbevenhigherthisholiday.Ensuringaseamlessmobileexperienceisnowmission-criticalforcapturingholidaydemand.

•Deep,strategicdiscountingwillbeessentialtounlockgrowth,asvalue-consciousconsumersactivelyseekthebestdeals.

•BuyNow,PayLater(BNPL)adoptionwillaccelerate,withCyberMondayprojectedtobethefirstdayevertoexceed$1billioninBNPLtransactions.

•Socialnetworks,affiliates,andpaidsearchwillbetheprimaryenginesofholidayrevenuegrowth.Influencerandaffiliatestrategiesaredeliveringoutsizedconversiongains.

•RedditandInstagramareemergingastop-performingreferralsources,drivingsignificantincreasesinbothtrafficandvisitorshareforbrands.

•GenAI-poweredreferralstoretailsitesareexpectedtogrowbyover500%year-over-year,withtrafficpeakinginthedaysleadinguptoThanksgiving—especially10daysprior.

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2025HolidaySeasonOnlineSpendingtocross$250BillionDollars

•Onlineretailisexpectedtoseemoderategrowth

thisseason(Nov-Dec)whichispoisedtomake2025thefirstquarterofatrillion-dollarholidayseason.

•Adobeforecastsarecord$253.4billiondollarswillbespentonlinethisholidayseason(Nov-Dec).

•Holidayspendgrowthisexpectedtoreach5.3%YoY(year-on-year)butcouldfluctuatebetween

3.7%($250.3B)to6%($255.9B).

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BlackFridayGainsShareofCyberWeekGrowth

•BlackFridaywillseethehighestgrowthovertheCyberWeekperiod

at8.3%YoYand$11.7Binrevenue,continuingtocapturealargershareofholidayspending.

•CyberMondaygrowthisprojectedataslightlylower6.3%YoYthoughitstillmaintains

dominanceasthetoponlinespendingdayoftheyearat$14.2B.

•StrongdiscountsdrivetheseasonalCyber

Week(ThanksgivingtoCyberMonday)growthtoabout6.3%YoYanddrawin$43.7B,that’s17.2%oftheseason'srevenue.

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"Mobile-first"HolidaySeasontoClosetheFirstMobile-firstyear

•Mobiledeviceshavecementedtheirpositionas

thedominantonlineshoppingformat,with2025poisedtobecomethefirstfullyearwithmore

than50%ofonlinespendinghappeningonmobiledevices.

•Adobeforecastsmobilerevenuesharetohita

record56.1%fortheholidayseasonwith7in10onlineretailvisitshappeningonmobiledevices.

•Arecord$142.7billionwillbespentviamobilethisholidayseason,up8.5%YoY

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VariedgrowthexpectedfromMajorCategories

•Electronicsareprojectedtogenerate$57.5billionwitha4%YoYgrowth.

•Grocerywilldrive$23.5Binrevenue,with9.3%YoYgrowth.Overindexingseasongrowth,butslowerthanlastyear's

12.9%increase.

•Cosmeticswillnet$8.4B,with9.1%growth,continuingtooverperformandgainrevenueshare.

•Apparel:Expectedtodrive$47.6billioninspend,reflectinga4.4%YoYgrowthfortheseason.

•Toys:Anticipatedtogrowby7.3%YoY,generating$8.8billion.

•FurnitureandHomegoodswillgrowat6.5%and$31.1B.

•SportingGoodswilldrive$8.2B,with5.1%growth.

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PriceSensitivityhasModerated,butPromotionalEventsStillDriveGrowth

•Sensitivitytopricechangehasdecreasedby12.8%on

averagesofarin2025,witha1%changeinpriceeffectinganaverage1.09%changeindemandin2025comparedtoa1.25%changein2024.

•Thedeclineinsensitivitytodiscountedpriceshasbeenslightlysteeperat13.2%.

•Themutedsensitivitypricechangeislikelydueinparttoconsumerwillingnesstopurchasefull-priceitemsorevenitemsthathaveincreasedinpricewiththeexpectation

thatpricesmaybesignificantlyhigherinthefuture.

•Whilethedirectresponsetodiscountsonindividual

productsmaynotbeasstronginthe2025holidayseasonasin2024,thepresenceofdeepdiscountswillbevitaltoassureprice-consciousconsumersthattheyaregettingthebestpossiblepricesontheproductstheypurchase.

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High-endgoodswillcaptureagreatershareduringtheholidayseason

•Thewillingnessofconsumerstospendwhentheybelieve

pricesareaslowastheywillbeisparticularlytrueforhigh-dollaritems.Duringthe2025holidayseasontheshareof

goodssoldfromthemostexpensivegoodsisexpectedtorisebymorethan19%acrossretailcategories.

•Holidayunit-shareboostformostexpensiveproductsacrosscategoriesisexpectedtoreach:

oSportingGoods:+56%

oElectronics:+52%

oAppliances:+39%

oPersonalCareProducts:+32%

oToolsandHomeImprovement:+26%

oBooks:+5%

oToys:+3%

oApparel:+8%

oHomeandGarden:4%

oGrocery:-3%

oFurnitureandBedding:-8%

Deepestdiscountsfortheseasonareexpectedtoreachupto28%

•Deepdiscountsareexpectedtocontinuetopushearlierintheseason,withdiscountsinthefirst2weeksofNovemberasdeepas13%offandpre-Thanksgivingdiscountsupto21%offbeforepeakseasondiscountsreach28%offduring

cyberweek.

•DiscountsareexpectedtoremainstrongthroughCyberweek(Nov27-Dec1),withCyberMonday(Dec1)expectedtoseethedeepestdiscountsofupto28%offlistprices.

•DecemberdiscountswillbeslightlyweakerthanNovember,thoughstillinthedouble-digitsintherangeof11-17%off.

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BlackFridayexpectedtoofferthedeepestdiscountsonmostcategories

•Toencouragehigherspendingfromprice-sensitiveconsumers,weexpectretailerstoprovidesignificantseasonaldiscountsbetween10%-28%,

•WhileCyberMondayhashistoricallydominatedCyberWeek(Thanksgiving-CyberMonday)intermsofthedeepestonlinediscounts,trendstowardearlierdiscountingandthegrowingpopularityofBlackFridayasanonlineshoppingdayarepushingsomeofthebestdealsoftheseasonfromCyberMondaytoBlackFriday.

The2025holidayseason'sdeepestdiscountsareexpectedtoreachthefollowinglevels:

Electronics-28%

Televisions-23%

Toys-27%

Apparel-25%

Computers-23%

Appliances-18%

Furniture-18%

SportingGoods-

CyberMonday12/01

BlackFriday11/28

BlackFriday11/28

CyberMonday12/01

CyberMonday12/01

BlackFriday11/28

BlackFriday11/28

19%

Thanksgiving11/27

SeasonGrowthsustainedbystrongHolidaySpendingBoostAcrossKeyCategories

•Throughouttheholidayseason,onlinespendingisexpectedtobeup45%abovethedailyaverage

fromJan-Aug,drivenbysubstantialupticksincategorieslike:

oToys+460%(relativelysmallshareofspend)

oApparel+85%

oElectronics+80%

oSportingGoods+60%

•Andevenstronger205%liftinonlinespendingisexpectedduringCyberWeekledbycategories

including:

oToys:+845%

oApparel:+290%

oElectronics:+280%

oSportingGoods:+225%

oFurniture:+190%

oCosmetics:+160%

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TopSubcategoriesWillSignificantlyOverperformDuringCyberWeek

•Whilebroadupticksacrossecommerceproductsare

expectedduringCyberWeek,asubstantialportionoftheuptickwillbedrivenbykeysubcategoriesthatseean

outsizedbenefit.

•TopperformingproductsubcategoriesduringtheCyber5periodareexpectedtoseea900%-1100%uptickinsalescomparedtothedailyaveragefromJan-Aug.

oPowerTools:+1060%

oActivityTrackers:+1055%

oHomeSecurityProducts:+1050%

oVideoGameConsoles:+1040%

oGames:+1010%

oHeadphonesandspeakers:+985%

oSmartWatches:+950%

oVacuumCleaners:+920%

oTelevisions:+915%

oRefrigeratorsandFreezers:+910%

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OnlineShoppersSeekValueforMoney,NotJustSavings

•Manyholiday-favoriteproductsubcategories

includinggames,videogames,largeappliances,vacuumcleaners,televisions,andothersareexpectedtosee

elevatedholidayspendingduetoagrowingpreferenceforpremiumgoods.

•In2025,consumershavedemonstratedashiftinvalue-consciousonlineshoppingthatseeksabetterbalanceofpriceandqualityratherthansimplythelowestprice.

•Thisshifthasbeenfacilitatedinpartbyashrinkingprice-gapbetweenpremiumproductsandtheirmorebudget

friendlyalternatives.

•In2025,pricesofthecheapestquartileofproductshavefallenby8tenthsofapercentlessonaverageduring

periodsofdiscountsanddeflationandhavebeen

disproportionatelyaffectedbyinflationbyroughlythesameamount.

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ConsumersTurntoRenovationOverRelocation

•Consumersareexpectedtocapitalizeonholidayprice-cutstoinvestintheirlivingspaces,especiallyondurablegoodsandhigher-ticketitemslikepowertools,largeappliances,smarthometech,andhomesecurityproducts.

•Harvard’sLIRAreportprojectsarecoveryof1.2%growthinremodelingactivityin2025followingadeclinein2024,likelyaidedbyarelativelyweakseller’smarket

incentivizingimprovementoflivingspaceswhetherforcomfort,convenience,orcurbappeal.

•Theshrinkingprice-gapbetweencheaperandmore

expensiveproductsandstockpilingactivitygiven

consumerexpectationsofrisingpricesinthefuturewillprovideaddedfueltorenewedinterestinhome

improvement,furtherboostingholidayspending.

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Trackingmorethansteps,consumersareembracingbio-monitoring

•Fitnesstrackersandsmartwatcheshavelongbeena

holidayfavorite,andthisyeargrowingadoptionofbio-monitorsandwearabletechisexpectedtoprovideanextralifttoonlinesalesthisholidayseason.

•Interestinhealthmonitoringbroadlyhasseenanuptickin2025,evidencedbythe53%liftinonlinesales

oftraditionalbio-monitoringdevicesduringPrimeDay2025comparedtothe6%liftduringprimeday2024(comparedtoJuneaverages).

•Theemergenceofnewwearableformfactorsandtheexpansionoffeaturestoincludemorecomprehensivehealthandwellnessmonitoringhavepositionedbio-

monitoringdevicestotapintothisexpandingconsumerinterestforastrongholidayseason.

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NewConsoletoDriveSeasonalSalesSurge

•Thereleaseofthefirstnewmajorgamingplatformsince

2020isexpectedtoinjectnewlifeintoonlinesalesofVideoGamesthisholidayseason.

•TheNintendoSwitch2soldoutimmediatelyafteritsearlyJunereleaseandboostedoverallonlinesalesofgaming

productsbynearly70%inthedaysfollowingitsrelease.

•PromotionaleventsthroughoutJulyhelpedpushdailyonlinevideogamessalesinJulyup109%overtheYTDdailyaveragecomparedtojusta25%uptickinJulyof2024.

•Withvideogamesalreadyaperennialtop-performing

categoryduringtheholidayseason,thismostrecent

releaseisexpectedtoboostonlinesalesofvideogames,consoles,andaccessories,especiallyduringthecyber5periodwhendiscountsareattheirstrongest.

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Buynow,paylatermomentumbuildsheadedintoholiday

•Afteraslowerstartto2025,BuyNow,PayLater(BNPL)growthisgainingmomentumandisexpectedto

continuetogrowthroughtheholidayseason.

•Thisholidayseasonisforecastedtosee$19.8b-$20.4binBuyNow,PayLaterspend.Thisisanincreaseof9%

-12%fromthe2024holidayseason.

•ThebigshoppingdayswillcontinuetoseehighlevelsofBNPLspend.BlackFridayisforecastedtosee

between$748m-$775.5minBNPLspend,up9%-13%yearoveryear.

•CyberMondaywillsetanewrecordforthemostspentonasingledaythroughBNPLwithaforecasted$1.02b

-$1.06bspentthroughthepaymentmethod.Thisisup3%-7%fromlastyear,andwillbethefirstdaytocross$1billioninBNPLspend

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MobiledevicesdriveBNPLspend

•ThemajorityofBuyNow,PayLaterspendisbeing

predominatelydrivenbypeopleusingtheir

smartphone,ratherthanadesktop,laptoportablet.

•Sofarthisyear(Jan1-Aug21)79.8%ofbuynow,paylaterrevenuehascomethroughamobiledevice.

•Mobile'sshareofBNPLrevenueisforecastedtoremainhighduringtheholidayseason,atbetween79%-85%.

•Thismeansbetween$15.6billionand$17.3billionofBNPLspendwillbemadethroughamobiledevice

duringtheholidayseason.

•Duringthe2024holidayseason(Nov1-Dec31)$14.4billiondollarsofBNPLspendwasmadeonamobile

device.

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Lastminuteholidaygiftsdrivecurbsidepickup

•Curbsidepickupseeslowerusageoutsideofpeakperiodsbutremainsago-to

optionduringtheholidayseasonforlastminutegifts.

•Curbsidepickuphasbeenusedin16.9%oforderssofarthisyear(Jan1-Aug21),

down8.2%from2024whenitwasusedin18.4%oforders.

•BOPISisexpectedtopeaklaterinthe

seasononDecember22ndand23rdforlastminutegiftpurchasesat32%-37%oforders.

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SocialNetworks,Affiliates/PartnersandPaidSearchleadRevenueGrowth

•SocialNetworksdeliveredthestrongestyear-to-dategrowth(+41%YoY).

•AffiliatesandPartnersgrew+14%YoY,showingconsistentmomentumas

brandsleanonpartnership-drivensales.

•PaidSearchincreased+4.3%YoY,

maintainingitspositionasasteadyandreliablecontributortorevenue.

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MarketingChannelsForecast

•SocialNetworksareexpectedtocontinueitsstronggrowth,withrevenuesharerisingananticipated50%-53%year-over-yearin

NovemberandDecember.

•AffiliatesandPartnersareprojectedtogrow

13%-17%year-over-year,sustainingtheirstrongmomentumintotheholidayseason.

•PaidSearchisforecastedtoremainsteady,withamodest1%-3%increasethroughoutthe

holidayseason,reflectingitsconsistentperformance.

•NaturalSearchisexpectedtodropby3%-6%thisholidayseason,continuingitsdownwardtrend.

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ConversionRate:SocialNetworksvsSocialMediaAffiliates

•SocialMediaInfluencers/Affiliatesrepresenta

segmentwithinthebroaderAffiliatesmarketing

channel.SocialMediaAffiliatesconvertatahigherratethantheoverallSocialNetworksmarketing

channel.

•SocialMediaAffiliatesconvertedataratemorethan11timeshigherthantheoverallSocialNetworks

marketingchannelin2025.

•HighconversionfromSocialMediaAffiliatesis

expectedtopersistintotheholidayseason,asbrandsincreasinglyleanoninfluencer-drivenmarketing.

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RedditSurgesastheFastest-GrowingSocialReferralPlatform

•Redditisemergingasthefastest-growingsocialreferralplatform,withvisitsharenearly

doublingyear-over-year(+97%).

•Redditalsoleadsallplatformsinrevenuesharegrowth,upnearly37%year-to-date,makingitthestandoutperformerinsocialreferrals.

•WhileReddit’soverallshareremainssmallerthanlargerplatforms,Reddit’srapidgrowthsignalsstrongmomentumheadingintotheholidayseason.

•Withthisacceleration,Reddit’svisitshareis

projectedtoclimbfurtherby43.1%comparedtolastholidayseason.

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InstagramExtendsLeadOverTikTok

•SocialMediareferralvolumeisprojectedto

reachitsannualpeakonBlackFriday,withananticipated80%-83%surgeduringtheholidayseasoncomparedtotheyear-to-dateaverage.

•Year-to-date,socialmediareferralshavegrownby

37.7%comparedtothesameperiodin2024.

•Instagramvisitssurgedby41.0%andisexpectedtoincrease60%-65%year-over-yearduringthe

holidayseason.

•TikTokreferralsgrewby29.5%andisprojectedtogrow45%-47%duringthesameperiod.

•Importantly,Instagramrevenueshareroseby31%,whileTikTokslippedslightly.

•Redditleadsoverallgrowth,withInstagram

followingcloselyandmaintainingaclearleadoverTikTok.

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RedditGeneratesStrongestCommerceValue

•Redditstandsoutasthemostvaluable

referrer,withvisitvalueup~7%year-over-yearandexpectedtoriseanother16%thisholidayseason.

•Instagramremainssteadyandreliable,witheachvisitworthabout5xmorethanaTikTokvisitacrossJan-Jul2025.

•TikTokdrivenvisitsareexpectedtogenerateabout70-74%lessvaluethanInstagram

leadingintothisholidayseason.

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RedditandInstagramDriveQuality;TikTokStrugglestoEngage

•Reddit,InstagramandPinterestdeliverthe

strongesttrafficquality,withlowandimprovingbouncerates(~32%)thatreflectmoreengagedvisitors.

•Redditdeliversthemostefficientreferrals,with

visitsworth~1.5xmorethanotherreferralsand

lowerbouncerates—momentumitisexpectedtocarryintotheholidayseason.

•Instagramtrafficisprojectedtobe30-35%lesslikelytobouncethanTikTokduringthepeak

holidayperiod

•Withbounceratesaveraging49%inJan-Jul2025,TikTokcontinuestobetheoutlier,highlightingitsfunctionasanupper-funnelchannelfocusedonreachandawareness.

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GenAITrafficContinuestoGrow;PoisedtospikeThisHolidaySeason

•InAugust,trafficfromGenAIsourcestoretailsitesisup1500%YoY,withnearly300%growthsinceJanuary—underscoringtheexplosivemomentumAIassistants

havebuiltthisyear.

•Thisholidayseason,trafficisexpectedtorise515%-

520%YoY,withThanksgivingalonegrowingan

expected725%-730%YOY.Thesegainsremainmassive,andthepercentagesreflectgrowthcomingontopoflastyear’sholidaysurge—amuchstrongerstartingpoint.

•3outof4consumersarefamiliarwithAIassistants,andoverathirdhaveusedthemforonlineshopping.

•Nearly80%ofconsumerssaytheyuseAIassistantsmorefrequentlyduringorleadinguptohigh-stakesshoppingevents,suchasmajorsalesorholidays.

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AIAssistantsAreReshapingtheOnlineShoppingExperience

•72%ofconsumerswhohaveusedAIforonlineshoppingsaidtheyarelesslikelytoreturn

itemspurchasedwiththehelpofanAIassistant.

•AmongconsumerswhomadeapurchaseusinganAIassistant,95%reportedbeingsatisfied

withtheirpurchase.

•ConsumersrelyonAIassistantsforavarietyofshopping-relatedtasksincluding:

oResearch(53%)

oProductRecommendations(40%)

oDealSeeking(36%)

oGiftInspiration(30%)

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AI-ReferredTraffic:DesktopFirstbutShiftingTowardMobile

•AImobilevisitsharehasconsistentlyrisen

throughouttheyear,increasing44%sincethestartof2025.

•InAugust,nearly27%ofAItraffichascomefrommobile,comparedto73%fromdesktop

•Mobileshareisexpectedtocontinueitsgrowththroughouttherestoftheyear,reaching

approximately30%duringtheholidayseason.

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ProductCategoriesPoisedforAI-DrivenBoostThisSeason

•41%ofconsumerssaytheyturntoAIforinspirationandideas—mostoftenbeforetheybeginshopping.

•AIreferralvisitsareexpectedtopeakinthedaysleadinguptoThanksgiving,specificallyonNovember17th,10dayspriortoThanksgivingandagainonNovember25th,just2daysbeforeThanksgiving.

StrongBoost

•Toys

•Electronics

•Jewelry

•PersonalCareProducts

ModerateBoost

•HomeImprovement

•Home&Garden

•Apparel

•Appliances

WeakerBoost

•PetProducts

•SportingGoods

•Grocery

•Furniture&Bedding

•ProductsexpectedtoseestrongAI-drivenreferralgrowththisseasonincludeBluetoothHeadphones,Computers,TVs,DysonAirwraps,Fragrances,CoffeeMakers,AirFryers,EducationalSTEMKits,LegoSets,andPokémonTradingCards.

Holidayhotproductstowatch

Toyswatchlist

•DisneyStitchPuppetronic

•LabubuDolls

•MrBeastLabToys

•Fisher-PriceLittlePeople

•LEGOsets

•MiniBrandsCapsules

•BlueyUltimateLightsandSoundsPlayhouse

•SquishmallowPlushToys

VideoGameswatchlist

•NintendoSwitch2

•PS5

•XboxSeriesX

•DonkeyKongBananza

•EldenRing:Nightreign

•MaddenNFL26

•NBA2k26

•EASportsFC26

•CallofDuty:BlackOps7

•GhostofYotei

•NinjaGaiden4

Additionalhotproducts

•iPhone17

•GooglePixel10

•SamsungGalaxyS25

•OuraRing4

•KindleColorsoft

•AirpodsPro3(IfReleased)

•DJIOsmoPocket3

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•DysonAirwrapMultiStyler

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Shoppingcapturesimaginationsthroughtheholidayseason

ConsumersspendmoremoneyduringNovemberandDecemberthanatanyothertimeintheyear,andthat’sreflectedinAIimagegeneration

•Imagesrepresentingshoppinghittheir2024peakinNovemberinthelead-uptoBlackFridayandCyberMondayat+28%Jan-Octaverages

•ElectronicslikePhones(+29%)andTVs(+21%)hittheir2024peaksinNovemberaswell

•ImageswithtoysjumpedinNovemberbutpeakedinDecemberat+50%Jan-Oct,asChristmasapproached,mirroringthecategory’slaterpurchasingcycle

Imageswithgiftsspikedto200%Jan-OctaveragesinNov,andthenupagaintoawhopping315%abovetheJan-OctaverageasChristmas-relatedimageryspiked

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Three