全球能源转型展望2025-全球和区域预测至2060（英）

WHENTRUSTMATTERSD

NVENERGYTRANSITIONOUTLOOK2025A

global

and

regional

forecast

to2060Facedwiththesedevelopments,acasualobservermightconcludethattheenergytransitionisstalledorinreverse.Thatis

mostdefinitely

notthecase.The

energytransitionisrollingon.DNV’s

annualEnergy

TransitionOutlookhas,consistently,forecastashiftfrom

today’s80/20fossil/non-fossil

primary

energymix

to

a50/50mix

by2050.That

is

still

our

predictionthisyear,althoughsomeaspectsof

thetransitionare

superchargedandprogressingrapidly,whileotheraspectsof

thetransitionhavehitturbulenceandare

delayed.Thisleadstoamarginallyslowertransition

thanourforecastlastyear.It

is

now

widely

acknowledged

that

the

worldwillnotachievenetzeroemissionsby2050,

whichmeanswarmingwillexceed1.5°C.Hydrogenanditsderivatives,floatingoffshorewind,

andnovelnuclearsolutionscomprisetheexpensive

sideofdecarbonization,withuptakedrivenbypolicy

ratherthanmarketforces.Thesetechnologiesallplay

amoremutedrole

inthisyear’sforecast,only

reallyscaling

in

the2040s.Incontrast,cheaprenewableelectrons,storedwhen

necessaryinever-cheaperbatteries,are

already

an

unstoppableforce.Weforecastthatsolar(bothwith

andwithoutstorage)andwindwillbe32%of

theglobalpowermixby2030.Weexpect

a

resurgencein

offshore

wind

by2030,such

that

variable

renewableswill

provide

more

than50%of

all

electricity

by

2040.By

then,electricity

will

have

grown55%

from

today’s

levels.Whatisstoppingrunawaydevelopmentsinelectrificationisalagginggridbuildout.Weestimate

thatinEurope,absentthepresent‘gridlock’,solarcapacity

could

be

16%higher

by2035,

and

windcapacity8%

higher.SoaringpowerdemandfromAIdatacentresisplacingadditionalstrainonalreadycongestedgrids,

particularlyinNorthAmerica.OuranalysisfindsthatAI’senergydemandgrowthislikelytobecome

morelinearovertime(outpaced,forinstance,by

EV

chargingdemand)evenasthecognitiveservicesof

AI

expand

exponentially.

That

is

due

to

many

efficiencyeffectsworkingtogether,athemeweexploreinsomedepthinthisyear’sforecast.Inourview,theheightenedfocusonenergysecurity

bypolicymakersworldwideslightlyfavoursnon-fossil

overfossilsourcesinthelongrun.Thatincludes

aresurgenceofinvestmentinnuclear

power,whichwepredict

will

grow

150%from

today’s

levels

by2060.

Onthefossilsideof

themix,policyreversals

intheUSwillseeitsemissionreductionsset

backaround

5years.The

US

accounts

for

one

seventh

of

globalprimaryenergyuseandthusexertssomeinfluence

ontheoverallpicture.However,

massivescaledecarbonizationof

theChineseeconomycontinues,

coupledwithlow-costelectro-technologyexports

fromChinatootherregions.This

year,our

forecast

runs

to2060,

not2050.Thatis

mainly

becausethetransitionis

by

no

means

completein2050andthereis

avery

importantdynamicunfoldinginthedecadethereafterastheworldtrendsfurthertowardsadecarbonizedenergymix.Thattrendisunstoppable

buttooslow,

settingupgrave

risksforfuturegenerations.Ten

years

have

passed

since

representatives

from

196nations

signed

the

Paris

Agreement.

Sincethen,onlysixcountrieshavereducedtheiremissionsinlinewiththeirpledges,while

theUShasexitedtheAgreement,again.Itisnowwidelyacknowledgedthattheworldwill

not

achieve

net-zero

emissions

by2050.This

means

warming

will

exceed

1.5°C

and

thenincreaserelentlesslyuntilwereducegreenhousegasemissionstozero.Net-zeroemissionsinourforecastisonly

achieved

towards

theendof

thiscentury,and

theaccumulation

ofemissionsuntilthentakesusbeyond2°Cofwarming

by2100.Science

has

shown

beyond

anydoubtthathumanitywillthenbeexperiencing,to

itsgreatcost,howcriticaleachtenthofadegreeof

globalwarmingistoourplanetandsociety.GroupPresidentand

CEODNVDNVEnergy

TransitionOutlook2025FOREWORDELECTRIFICATIONRemi

EriksenDEVELOPMENTSHARDSECTORSFOSSIL

FUELSETO

MODELEMISSIONSFORECASTREGIONSFINANCEPOLICY2BlockIslandWindFarm-thefirstUSoffshorewindfarm—

off

RhodeIsland.(PhotobyDennisSchroeder

/

NREL)1.

PolicyreversalsintheUSwill

have

only

amarginalimpactontheglobalenergytransition—

Thisyear,we

projectanenergytransitionthatis

marginallyslowerthanthetransitionweforecast

lastyear,

bothintermsofemissionsandfossil's

shareofprimary

energy.—

Inthe

US,fossilfuel

promotionandthereversal

ofcleanenergysupportpolicies

markedlyslow

thatnation’stransition.

Emissionreductionsare

delayed

byaboutfiveyears(Highlight

1)andthroughto2050annualCO2

emissionsare

reset500to

1000

Mthigherthanwepredictedoneyear

ago.—

Chinacontinuestosetrenewables

buildoutrecords

with390GW

of

solar

PV

(56%

share

ofnew

global

capacity)and

86GW

of

wind(60%share)expectedto

beinstalledthisyear.Chinese

cleantechexportscontinuetopropelthetransitionintherest

of

theworld.—

Europeisseekingto

balanceclimateactionwith

competitiveness.

Harder-to-decarbonizesectors

are

progressingslowly.While

Europe’srenewable

energybuildoutremains

relativelystrong,

itfalls

shortofthe

EU’s2030renewableenergytargets.Policyreversalsinthe

USwill

haveonlyamarginalimpactontheglobal

energytransitionEnergysecurityactionsglobally

produceanet

resultof

loweremissionsovertimeEVandsolarsetnew

milestonesas

electricityproductiongrowsand

greenswithaprogressivelyhigher

non-fossilshareAI’senergyusemayseem

alarming,

butatonly3%ofglobalelectricity

by2040,isprojectedtostay

below

boomingsectorslikeEV

charging

andspacecoolingEmissionsarenoteven

halving

by

2050,andurgentactionis

requiredtoreachthe‘wellbelow2°C’target—

Intherestoftheworld,most

countries

areembracingcompetitiveChinesetechnologies,withyear-on-yeargrowthininstallationsat

around

25%.

Fossil

energy

use

is

also

rising,

but

not

asquickly.The

primaryenergyfossilfuelshareonlyshrinks

from79%to75%

over

the

next

10

years.—

Thisyear,

DNVforecaststheenergytransitionto2060forthefirsttime.Weprojecttheglobal

transitionwillcontinuethroughthe2050s,with

accelerationatthattimeinnuclearand

negative

emissiontechnologies.Ein

is\

bmissionNorthAslowedy

5yearsdeclinemericadown...2024

forecastEvolutionofenergy-relatedCO2

emissionsinNorthAmericaand

in

the

rest

of

the

world(GtCO2/yr)...while

the

rest

oftheworld

follows

asimilartrendDNVEnergy

TransitionOutlook2025403020100HIGHLIGHTS6543210ELECTRIFICATIONDEVELOPMENTSHARDSECTORSFOSSIL

FUELSHIGHLIGHT

1

|ETO

MODELEMISSIONSFORECAST2030205020602040202420302040205020602024REGIONSFINANCEPOLICY325431—

By

the

end

of2025,global

solar

PV

capacity

willexceed3,000GW,with

47%installed

in

Chinaand20%in

Europeasthetwo

leading

regions.Rapidgrowthwillcontinuein

all

regions:

solar

PV

is

10%ofallpower

producedworldwidetoday;itwill

be20%in

2029

and

40%

in

2045.—

The

plungingcostsofsolarpanels

and

batteries

havemade

behind-the-meter(BTM)solutionsattractiveforarangeofhouseholds

and

business.BTM

will

represent30%of

all

solar

and

13%

of

allpower

generated

by2060.—

Globally,electricityisgrowing

and

greeningrapidly

and

at

scale.A

120%expansion

fromtoday

to2060will

see

electricity

shift

from

a21%

shareofglobalenergydemandto43%.Thisencompassesgrowthintransport,buildings,and

manufacturinginallregions.Thefossil

share

of

electricitysupplyoverthesameperiodfallsfrom

59%to

just4%.—

For

hard-to-decarbonizesectors,

like

heavytransportandhigh

heat,weseethatglobalrivalryandtheeconomicslowdownare

havingan

impact.Overthelastthreeyears,ourforecastfor

the

hydrogenshareofthe2050energymix

hasshrunk

from4.8%to3.5%.—

Whenweremovetheenergysecuritydimensionin

ourglobalenergymodel,leavingonlytheafforda-

bilityvssustainabilitydilemma,sustainabilitysuffersmore.Theeffectsaremoderate,

butwefindenergysecurityactionstakentogetherlower

globalemissionsbyapercentortwodepending

on

year.For

Europe,the

effect

is

marked:emissions

9%

lower

in

2050.—

Security-focusedgovernmentsarepushingnuclear

power,anditwillaccountfor9%ofelectricitysupplyin2060.Withouttheenergysecurityboost,

nuclearpowerwouldbeathird

lower.—

Energyandnationalsecurityconcernsproduceseveraldilemmas,includingvaryingdegreesofwillingnesstoimportcheapChinesetechnologies.—

Buildingupeffectivedomesticproduction,alternativesupplychains,andsourcingmaterials

fromnewsitesareall

lengthyand

expensiveexercises,butfullypossible.Increasing

globaltensionisweaponizingbothenergyandenergytechnologies,with

the

US

and

China

at

the

forefrontof

thatrace.806040200Solar

PV(behind-the-meter)Solar

PV(utility-scale)WindOther

RESNuclearFossil-fired3.EVandsolarsetnew

milestones

aselectricityproductiongrowsandgreenswith

aprogressivelyhigher

non-fossilshare—

Thisyear,theworldreachedthemilestoneofmore

than50millionEVs

onthe

road.

Mostof

them(60%)are

in

China,with

Europe

at21%,

and

NorthAmerica

at

13%.By2030,we

expect

there

to

be200millionEVsontheroad.The

pointofinflection—

EVs

at50%of

global

new

passenger

vehiclesales

—

will

be

reached

in2032.2.Energysecurityactionsgloballyproduce

a

netresultoflower

emissions

overtime—

Energysecurityprioritiesresult

ina

decrease

in

emissionsamongenergy-importingcountries,

whileenergy-exportingcountriestendtoseean

increaseinemissions.Thistrendendureseven

withtheincreasedemphasisondomesticcoal

productioninChinaand

India.-3.2%-2.9%-2.0%Energysecuritypoliciesleadtolowerglobal emissions

in20402010

2020

2030

2040

20502060HIGHLIGHT3

|EuropeIndianSubcontinentGreaterChinaWorldEffectofenergysecuritypoliciesonenergy-relatedCO2

emissions

in

year2040,in

selected

regionsWorldelectricitygenerationbypowerstationtype(PWh/yr)NorthAmericaMiddle

EastandNorthAfricaDNVEnergy

TransitionOutlook2025+1.1%+0.9%HIGHLIGHTSELECTRIFICATIONDEVELOPMENTSHARDSECTORSFOSSIL

FUELSHIGHLIGHT2

|

-0.9%ETO

MODELEMISSIONSFORECASTREGIONSFINANCEPOLICY45.Emissionsarenot

even

halving

by

2050,andurgentactionisrequiredto

reachthe‘wellbelow2°C’target—

Global

CO2

emissions

reduce43%from

todayto2050and63%to2060—and

are

expected

toreach

net

zero

only

after2090.Emissions

reductioninbothabsoluteandrelativetermsisstrongest

inthe

power

sector

with

an88%(13Gt)decrease,followed

by

the

transport

sector

with

a58%(5Gt)

reduction.—

CCSandnet-negativeemissiontechnologiesremove35Gt

of

emissions

from

today

to2060,equalling4%ofcumulativeemissionsintheperiod.Althoughthecontributionismoderate,CCSisanimportantpart

ofemissions

reduction.

Beyondourforecastperiod,anenormousamount

ofcarbondioxideremoval(CDR)alongsidenature-basedsolutionswillberequiredtoensurenet-negativeemissions,whichweestimatewillonly

occur

after2090.—

The

carbon

budget

for

1.5°C

is

exhausted

in2029and2°C

in2052;limiting

global

warming

to1.5°Cwithoutatemporaryovershootisnolonger

possible.4.AI’senergyusemayseemalarming,

butatonly3%ofglobalelectricityby2040,weprojectitwillstaybelowboomingsectors

like

EVchargingandspacecooling—

Withpower-hungrydatacentres

multiplyingto

servicetherapidgrowthofAIapplications,we

findthattheinitialexponentialgrowthin

power

demandswillgivewaytoamore

linear

pattern

overtime.—

Datacentreenergyusewill

quintupleto2040,equalling5%ofallglobalelectricity.

3%

ofthis

is

forAIand2%forgeneral-purposedatacentres.

Thereare

largeregionalvariations;

in

NorthAmerica

the2040share

is

16%of

all

electricity,with

12%

being

AI.—

Lookingatshort-termelectricitygrowth,AI

isthebiggestdriverofelectricityconsumptionthenextfiveyearsin

NorthAmerica.

In

Europe,

EVcharginggrowthfarexceedsAI’sdemandgrowth,asdoboth

EV

charging

andthecooling

ofbuildingsin

China

and

India.403020100PowerTransportBuildingsManufacturing(incl.processesOthercharging

/3

/

/2

1

Data

excluding

AIdemand

0

—

Emissionsinourforecastareassociatedwithatemperatureriseof2.2°Cabovepre-industriallevels

by2100.There

is

an

additional

risk

of

higherwarmingbasedonnew

researchon

climatesensi-

tivitynotyetincludedin

IPCCcarbon

budgets.—

Limiting

global

warming

to‘well

below2°C‘is

stillpossibleandurgentactionsinallsectors

and

in

all

countriesandregionsarecrucialtoensurethis.—

Thedirectinvolvementofbigtech

in

data

centre

energysupplyisa

new

driverfor

new

nuclearR&D,in

part

because

big

tech

is

less

cost-sensitivethantraditional

powerconsumers.

However,new

nuclearenergywillnot

be

readyanytimesoon,

andforthenear-tomedium-term,additionalsupplyneededby

data

centreswill

comefrom

fossilfuelsandrenewables,with

regionalvariations.Worldelectricitydemandfromdatacentres(PWh/yr)4

EV2010201520202025203020352040HIGHLIGHT4|World

demand

for

EV

charging

given

for

comparison.2010

2020

2030

2040

20502060HIGHLIGHT5

|WorldCO2

emissionsbysector(GtCO2/yr)centres

DatacentresDNVEnergy

TransitionOutlook2025HIGHLIGHTSELECTRIFICATIONDEVELOPMENTSHARDSECTORSFOSSIL

FUELSETO

MODELEMISSIONSFORECASTREGIONSFINANCEPOLICY/565.3

Natural

gas5.4Non-energy

demandPolicy6.0

Highlights6.1Theenergytransition’spolicytoolbox6.2

Thepolicytoolboxatworkin

ETO

regions6.3Carbonprice:essential

but

uncertain6.4

Theeffectofpolicyon

hydrogen

development83868788899092937Financingtheenergytransition7.0

Highlights7.1

The

investment

transition—from

fossilfuelstoelectricityinfrastructure7.2A

diverging

financial

landscape—mapping

the

new

realities

of

energyinvestment7.3The

regional

picture

for

energyinvestments949596971008Emissionsandclimateimplications8.0

Highlights8.1

Emissions8.2

Globalwarmingfromcompounding

emissions1011021031052.3

Energy

efficiency

212.4AI

as

a

major

source

of

energy

demand

242.5

Demand

sectors

262.6Transport

272.7

Buildings

322.8

Manufacturing353

Electrification

393.0

Highlights

403.1

Electricity

demand

and

supply413.2

Solar

473.3

Wind

523.4

Nuclear

power

553.5

Hydropower593.6

Power

grids

603.7Storage

and

flexibility654Hard-to-decarbonize

sectors

684.0The

challenges

for

electrification

694.1

Hydrogen704.2

CCS744.3

Bioenergy

754.4

Direct

heat

765

Theevolvingfossilfuelrole

775.0

Highlights

785.1

Coal

795.2Oil

809Regional

transitions

108Aglobaldirection,butdifferentregional

pathways

109Greater

China

110North

America

111Indian

Subcontinent

112Middle

East

and

North

Africa113Europe

114HighlightsfromourEuropeancountry

reports115North

East

Eurasia116South

EastAsia117OECD

Pacific

118Latin

America

119Sub-Saharan

Africa

12010

The

ETO

Model

12110.1

Systems

thinking:How

we

model

theinterconnections

inthe

energy

system12210.2How

the

ETO

Model

operates

12310.3What’s

new

in

the

ETO

Model

this

year12410.4

Policy

factors

in

the

ETO

Model12510.5Assumptions(GDP,population)126References

128The

project

team

133Foreword

2Highlights

3Introduction

71Key

developments

over

the

last

year

81.0

Highlights

91.1

Geopolitics

and

the

energy

transition

101.2

Policy

debrief

121.3Other

energy

trends

141.4

Updates

to

the

model

151.5

Forecasting

to2060162DNV

forecast

172.1

Summary

of

energy

supply

and

demand

182.2

Thecompetitionbetweenfossilandnon-fossil

energy

20DNVEnergy

TransitionOutlook2025CONTENTSELECTRIFICATIONDEVELOPMENTSHARDSECTORSFOSSIL

FUELSETO

MODELEMISSIONSFORECASTREGIONSFINANCEPOLICY6Web

resources-www.dnv.com/etoMoredetaileddescriptionsof

theregionaltransitionscanbefoundon

ourmainETOwebhub,alongwithmorespecialized

reports

ontheenergytransition,country-levelreports,anddownloadableversionsof

mostof

thechartsinthisandotherreports.Ourforecastdatamay

be

freelyaccessedat/data.Forourreadersinmaritimeandrelated

industries,

our

annualMaritime

Forecastisawidelyconsultedsourceonthemaritimeenergytransition.OurapproachOurguidingprinciplesinproducing

thisforecastinclude:—Producing

a

best

estimate

of

the

energy

future,which

differs

in

manywaysfromthefuturewe

want

to

seeunfold—Publishing

a

single‘most

likely’forecast,and

not

a

range

of

scenarios,

whichoftenservetoconfuseratherthaninform—

Emphasizingandexploringlong-termdynamicsratherthanshort-term

imbalances—

Focusingonproventechnologiesandexcludingunprovenorfuture

potentially‘breakthrough’

technologies—

Incorporatingmainpolicytrends;treatinguntestedpolicycommitments

withcaution—Modelling

effects

of

behavioural

changes—e.g.in

relation

to

energyefficiency.Chapter10containsmoredetailsonourmodellingmethodologyandpresents

an

overview

of

the

updates

to

our

model

over

the

last12months.Ourbestestimate,notthefuturewewantLong-termdynamics,notshort-termimbalancesMainpolicytrendsincluded;cautionon

untestedcommitments,e.g.NDCs,

etc.A

singleforecast,notscenariosContinueddevelopmentofproventechnology,notuncertainbreakthroughsBehaviouralchanges:some

assumptionsmade,e.g.

linked

toachangingenvironment

IndependentviewDNV

was

founded

161years

ago

to

safeguard

life,property,andtheenvironment.Weareownedbyafoundationandaretrusted

byawiderangeofcustomerstoadvancethesafetyandsustaina-

bilityof

theirbusinesses.70%ofourbusinessrelatestotheproduction,generation,transmission,and

transport

of

energy.63%of

that

work

isnon-fossil-fuel

related

and37%related

to

the

oil

and

gas

industry.Developinganindependentunderstandingof,andforecasting,theenergytransitionisofstrategicimportancetobothusandourcustomers.ThisOutlookdrawsontheexpertiseofover

150professionalsinDNV.Inaddition,wearevery

gratefulfortheassistanceprovidedbyexternalexperts.Allcontributorsarelisted

onthelastpageof

this

report.About

this

Outlook:This

is

the9th

edition

of

our

annualEnergy

Transition

Outlook

(ETO),which

presents

the

results

ofourindependentmodelof

theworld’senergysystem.It

covers

the

period

through

to2060and

forecasts

the

energytransitiongloballyandin

10worldregions.INTRODUCTIONDNVEnergy

TransitionOutlook2025ELECTRIFICATIONDEVELOPMENTSHARDSECTORSFOSSIL

FUELSETO

MODELEMISSIONSFORECASTREGIONSFINANCEPOLICY7KEYDEVELOPMENTS

OVER

THELAST

YEAR1.0

Highlights91.1

Geopoliticsandtheenergytransition101.2Policy

debrief121.3

Otherenergytrends141.4

Updatestothemodel151.5Forecasting

to2060161

DEVELOPMENTS

FORECASTDNVEnergy

TransitionOutlook2025ELECTRIFICATIONHARDSECTORSFOSSIL

FUELSETO

MODELEMISSIONSREGIONSFINANCEPOLICY82060forecastFor

the

first

time,we

are

modelling

to2060,not2050.Although

the

energy

system

of2050will

be

significantlydifferentfromtoday,

theworldwillstillbeinthemiddleof

a

transition.Many

national

decarbonization

plans

set

a

net-zeroemissions

target

date

closer

to2060.PolicydebriefGeopoliticsandtheenergytransitionOthertrendsaffectingtheenergytransitionModelsensitivitiesandimprovementsEnergysecurityandpolicyrevisions:

Energysecurityconcernsare

adefining

feature

of

today’s

energy

landscape.On

a

global

scale,

theseconcernsleadtopoliciespromotingdomesticenergysources(bothfossil

and

non-fossil)that

collectively

tilt

slightly

in

favour

of

renewables.

Our

modelling

suggests

that

absent

these

measures,global

emissions

in2040would

have

been0.9%

higher.GDPlong-termforecast:

Followingthe

IMFandOECD,we

haverevisedour

GDP

outlook

to

reflect

slower

near-term

growth

and

a

less

optimistic

long-termtrajectory.Otheradjustments:Datacentresarenowmodelledwithfeedbackbetweencomputingperformance,chip

supply,and

server

costs,with

separate

treatment

forAI-focused

facilities.Behind-the-meter

solar

and

storage

are

captured

in

more

detail.Carbon

pricing

is

represented

more

dynamically,

rising

not

only

withabsolute

emissions,but

also

with

the

pace

of

decarbonization,strengtheningthelinkbetweenpolicyambit