地方政府债务对企业投资的影响-基于本地和溢出效应视角的分析

方债务的增加对本地及其它地区企业投资均会产生负面挤出效在新发展阶段，正确认识和妥善化解地方政府债务风险是2民币，约占中国国内生产总值（GDP）的48%。在风险整体可控目前已经有诸多文献研究地方债规模扩张对当地经济发展何通过金融市场影响其它地区的企业投融资行为是需要深入研4支出，地方财政收支长期存在显著缺口。在200算，2009年城投债发行规模就从以前的不足千亿元增长到了三千亿元以上。根据国家审计署2011年《加到6500余家，其中大部分是区县级平台；地方融资平台中，政府负有偿还责任的部分约为3.14万亿地方政府债务余额已增至约60万亿元人民币，相对于生产总值(GDP)的比例越近50%。这一债务规模的急剧扩张不仅2014年新版《预算法》出炉，赋予了地方省级政府发债的具，而融资平台债务不再确认为地方政府债务。2015年起，地6单位：亿元来源：中国地方政府债券信息公开平台比重逐步提高，面临的偿债压力也逐渐增大。根据单位：亿元来源：中国地方政府债券信息公开平台地方债规模扩张在拉动经济发展和增加债务风险正反两个于地方债规模与企业投资的研究成果来看，一般存在三种观点：本积累和缩小城乡收入差距，间接推动企业投资。DeLong和Summers（2012）发现，地方政府举债扩大财政支出，可以有效8地方债务能够促进地区投资和GDP增长，地方债务“自发自还”用效率低下，从而恶化企业的投融资环境。Huang（2016）发现基于以上分析，提出假设H1:地方政府债务扩张不仅会对据此，本文提出以下假设：H2:与国有企业相比，地方政府考HUANG(2020)的方法，数据主要来源于中国工业企业数据库数据库（ATS）将两者进行了匹配补充。而地方政府债务数据则参照徐军伟等（2021）的方法，根据2018年的“新融资平台”债务ADEBTt=ΣSc×DEBTc,t，Χc,t是城市层面控制变量的滞后，VariableObsMeanStd.Dev.MinMaxInvest(%)3378.027.061-.246DEBT(%).067.1020.924ADEBT(%)3378609.038628.60402090.389M2225318.7733.95826INF(%)2253.0723.141-6.2324.028LLOAN2Y(%)261786.53448.8237.532391.731LGOVBAL2Y2619-7.3125.567-224.847LGROWTH(%)285113.4563.136524LlGDPPC-1.448.777-3.591LlPOP5.807.7442.8687.988Llandprice16.038.7643.9128.102Cityid33774010.4291466.0716590也验证了上文的假设H1：地方债政府债务扩张的同时，不仅会本文按照持股比例对总样本进行了国有企业和私营部门的差异。本文按照资产规模分布的前25%和后75%进行大小企够通过多元化的融资渠道和更广泛的业务网络来缓解地方债务这些回归结果与之前地方政府债务挤出企业投资的研究一(1)Invest(2)Invest(3)Invest(4)Invest(5)Invest(6)InvestDEBT-0.04464**-0.10220***-0.10361***0.00054-0.07359**-0.00234**(0.020)(0.032)(0.026)(0.006)(0.032)(0.001)ADEBT-0.00001***-0.00001***-0.00001***-0.00005***-0.00005-0.00001***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.00113***-0.00088**-0.00018-0.00042***-0.00069-0.00004*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF-0.00501***-0.00508***-0.00325***-0.00046***-0.00374***-0.00023***(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y0.000020.00004-0.000010.00005-0.00001**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.00003-0.000080.000200.00060-0.00008(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LGROWTH0.000730.00039-0.000000.00062-0.00000(0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LlGDP_PC0.010050.02068***-0.00685***0.013050.00153***(0.008)(0.006)(0.002)(0.009)(0.000)LlPOP0.019000.02992***-0.00620***0.014480.00197***(0.013)(0.011)(0.002)(0.013)(0.001)Lland_price10.00175-0.000640.00191*0.00015-0.00034(0.004)(0.004)(0.001)(0.004)(0.000)_cons0.08063***-0.03832-0.096760.03168***-0.01408-0.00483*(0.007)(0.068)(0.060)(0.012)(0.060)(0.003)NFirmsAllAllPrivateStateLargeSmallCityFEYESYESYESYESYESYESANND(ALLNEWNETDEBT)为表2是不包含城投债的存量有息债务对企业投资的回归结(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)InvestInvestInvestInvestInvestInvestNND-0.07493***-0.13382***-0.12833***-0.00473-0.10926***-0.00277**(0.023)(0.033)(0.027)(0.007)(0.033)(0.001)ANND-0.00001***-0.00002***-0.00001***-0.00006***-0.00005-0.00001***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.00103***-0.00077*-0.00008-0.00042***-0.00060-0.00003*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF-0.00497***-0.00506***-0.00324***-0.00046***-0.00374***-0.00023***(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y0.000030.00005-0.000010.00007-0.00001**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.00003-0.000090.000200.00060-0.00008(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LGROWTH0.000730.00039-0.000000.000630.00000LlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons0.08033***(0.007)(0.001)0.00820(0.008)0.01689(0.013)0.00163(0.004)-0.02984(0.067)(0.000)0.01884***(0.006)0.02776**(0.011)-0.00080(0.004)-0.08796(0.060)(0.000)-0.00677***(0.002)-0.00612** (0.002)0.00193*(0.001)0.03147***(0.012)(0.001)0.01220(0.008)0.01356(0.012)0.00017(0.004)-0.01237(0.060)(0.000)0.00139***(0.000)0.00183***(0.001)-0.00034(0.000)-0.00423*(0.002)NFirmsAllAllPrivateStateLargeSmallCityFEYESYESYESYESYESYES上文测算了地方政府债务存量规模对企业投资乘数的影响，而政府债务在借贷和发行环节同样会在信贷市场占用大量资金，因此接下来本文将测算新增地方政府债务对企业投资乘数的影其中ND（NEWDEBT）为新增地方债务规模，AND(ALLNEWDEBT)但地方债规模扩张对信贷无序占用和对企业投资的挤出更多集(1)Invest(2)Invest(3)Invest(4)Invest(5)Invest(6)InvestND-0.14569***-0.11863***-0.14041***-0.01317-0.10520***0.00054(0.041)(0.041)(0.042)(0.010)(0.038)(0.002)AND-0.00004***-0.00012***-0.00006**-0.00002-0.00126***-0.00006***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M20.00001-0.00080*-0.00006-0.00041**-0.00034-0.00001(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INFLATION-0.00361***-0.00733***-0.00394***-0.00057***-0.00581***-0.00032***(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y-0.00012*0.000050.00001-0.00017**-0.00001***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y0.000060.000070.000190.00031-0.00009(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LGROWTH0.00152***0.000910.000080.00038-0.00000(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LlGDP_PC-0.03745***0.01556**-0.00691***-0.001000.00058(0.008)(0.007)(0.002)(0.007)(0.000)LlPOP-0.02724**0.02460*-0.00827***-0.001310.00095(0.011)(0.013)(0.003)(0.011)(0.001)Lland_price10.00013-0.002460.00186-0.00152-0.00040(0.004)(0.004)(0.001)(0.004)(0.000)_cons0.07530***0.20283***-0.073540.04019**0.10202*0.00029(0.007)(0.059)(0.065)(0.017)(0.061)(0.003)NFirmsAllAllPrivateStateLargeSmallCityFEYESYESYESYESYESYES与前文基础回归类似，首先将被解释变量更换为Nc,t，即某一城市所有新增企业数量该城市滞后一期(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1DEBT-1.91579***-0.57172*-0.28926***-0.08989**-0.13944**-0.09509(0.217)(0.323)(0.107)(0.045)(0.063)(0.146)ADEBT0.00003***0.00003**0.00001**0.00000**0.00000-0.00000(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.00512*-0.02692***-0.00544***-0.00257***-0.00539***-0.00925***(0.003)(0.003)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.002)INF-0.01638***-0.04447***-0.00937***-0.00435***-0.00896***-0.01852***(0.003)(0.004)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)LLOAN2Y0.00118***0.00019*0.000120.00022*0.00018LGOVBAL2YLGROWTHLlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons1.04631***(0.051)(0.000)-0.02902***(0.007)-0.00538(0.005)-0.49708***(0.045)-0.57765***(0.056)-0.08799***(0.026)4.31891***(0.323)(0.000)-0.00501***(0.002)-0.00108(0.001)-0.12084***(0.013)-0.15314***(0.017)-0.00767(0.007)1.04680***(0.086)(0.000)-0.00497***(0.001)-0.00065(0.001)-0.04481***(0.009)-0.05502***(0.011)-0.00801**(0.004)0.41441***(0.050)(0.000)-0.00657***(0.002)0.00156(0.002)-0.08081***(0.014)-0.09412***(0.018)-0.01292**(0.005)0.68610***(0.088)(0.000)-0.01241***(0.003)-0.00375(0.002)-0.26325***(0.022)-0.27692***(0.025)-0.04005***(0.013)2.00262***(0.143)N分组情况全部观测全部观测微型企业小型企业中型企业大型企业增地方债务规模ND（NEWDEBTAND(ALLNEWDEBT)全国新增这说明政府债务的增加可能导致了资本和资源在不同地区间的重新分配。资金可能被吸引到更有潜力或更具增长前景的地区，(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1ND0.07537(0.380)0.19325(0.369)0.02748(0.110)0.01827(0.079)0.08431(0.068)0.09047(0.151)AND0.00097***0.00029***0.00009***0.00005***0.00006***0.00008*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.01566***-0.02891***-0.00622***-0.00300***-0.00593***-0.01003***(0.003)(0.003)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.002)INF0.00348-0.03766***-0.00698***-0.00309***-0.00724***-0.01633***(0.003)(0.004)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.002)LLOAN2Y0.00087**0.00020**0.00015**0.00023**0.00016(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.02855***-0.00501***-0.00494***-0.00650**-0.01228***(0.007)(0.002)(0.001)(0.003)(0.003)LGROWTH-0.00792*-0.00103-0.000620.00156-0.00421*(0.004)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.002)LlGDP_PC-0.49628***-0.12443***-0.04223***-0.07955***-0.25416***(0.046)(0.014)(0.009)(0.014)(0.023)LlPOP-0.57845***-0.15859***-0.05278***-0.09419***-0.27436***(0.054)(0.017)(0.011)(0.018)(0.025)Lland_price1-0.08416***-0.00947-0.00834**-0.01380**-0.04159***(0.024)(0.007)(0.004)(0.005)(0.013)_cons0.90395***4.29652***1.06195***0.39869***0.68104***2.00450***(0.053)(0.283)(0.089)(0.049)(0.081)(0.132)N分组情况全部观测全部观测微型企业小型企业中型企业大型企业前文的分析中一直使用的是工业企业数据库和全国税收调(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)I1I1I1I1I1DEBT-0.000190.002340.003610.003160.001500.00458(0.005)(0.005)(0.005)(0.003)(0.005)(0.009)ADEBT-0.00020***0.000000.00099*-0.00027**-0.00013-0.00039(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.002)M20.00028**0.00012-0.000080.00013*0.000080.00023(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF0.000380.00021-0.000270.00046**0.000090.00031(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)LLOAN2Y-0.00002-0.000030.000010.00004*-0.00004(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.000020.000040.000020.00019*-0.00017(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGROWTH0.000160.00023-0.00010-0.000080.00051*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LlGDP_PC-0.00497*-0.01126***0.00230-0.00215-0.00248(0.003)(0.003)(0.002)(0.002)(0.005)LlPOP-0.01808*-0.02459**0.005050.00087-0.03353***(0.010)(0.010)(0.004)(0.015)(0.009)Lland_price10.00174**0.000940.00067*0.00107**-0.00056(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.002)_cons-0.029950.079990.16723**-0.07218**-0.015040.17102*(0.035)(0.065)(0.066)(0.033)(0.098)(0.087)N35073507234029362048ObsAllAllStatePrivateEastC&EFixEFYYYYYY述结果可能说明地方政府债务对上市公司投资的挤出效应主要Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1NERDEBT0.00001***_cons2.89349***2.80102***2.47138***NCityFirmsIc,t=βDEBTc,t+YNERDEBTc,t+ΓXc,t+αc+mt+εc,t(3)其中Ic,t为被解释变量，某一城市中所有企业的投资额Investc,t与方债存量余额Debtc,t与滞后GDPc,t—1的比。构建方式：通过构建权重，进行加总，得到相邻城市的政府债务NERDEBTc,t=ΣSc,t×DEBTc,t。NERGDPc,t—1为某一城市与之相邻城市GDP加β+γ/M，溢出平均效应：γ(1-1/M)，其余控制(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)I1I1I1I1I1I1DEBT-0.01704-0.11304**-0.11058***-0.00218-0.08790*-0.00492***(0.031)(0.035)(0.029)(0.006)(0.034)(0.001)NERDEBT0.00003**0.00002*0.000020.000030.00007*0.00000(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M20.000520.00109**0.00146***-0.00021*0.00118**0.00005**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF-0.00389***-0.00245***-0.00193**-0.00066***-0.00118-0.00021***(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y-0.00011*-0.00006-0.000020.00003-0.00000LGOVBAL2YLGROWTHLlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons0.43505***(0.072)(0.000)0.00059(0.001)0.00020(0.001)0.03302***(0.009)0.04436**(0.015)0.00021(0.005)0.08075(0.099)(0.000)0.00026(0.001)0.00008(0.001)0.03686***(0.007)0.05002***(0.013)-0.00219(0.004)-0.00488(0.087)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)0.000250.00102-0.00004(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)-0.000050.000580.00003(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)-0.00577**0.02545**0.00177***(0.002)(0.008)(0.000)-0.00541*0.03357**0.00265***(0.002)(0.013)(0.001)0.001780.00101-0.00024(0.001)(0.004)(0.000)0.09294***-0.025260.00996*(0.022)(0.091)(0.005)City283283282282258258FirmsAllAllStatePrivateEastC&EN(1)(2)(5)(6)(7)(8)I1I1I1I1I1I1DEBT-0.004790.002020.004420.002430.003100.00184(0.004)(0.005)(0.006)(0.003)(0.005)(0.009)NERDEBT0.000020.000010.00006-0.00002-0.00007***0.00017**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M20.00042***0.00012-0.000050.00013*0.000090.00022(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF0.000540.00021-0.000260.00045**0.000110.00029(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)LLOAN2Y-0.00002-0.00002-0.000000.00003-0.00005(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.000030.000020.000080.00017-0.00017LGROWTHLlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons-0.04984(0.036)(0.000)(0.000)0.000160.00015(0.000)(0.000)-0.00490*-0.00993***(0.003)(0.003)-0.01839*-0.02308** (0.010)(0.010)0.00171**0.00099 (0.001)(0.001)0.082280.15943**(0.066)(0.065)(0.000)-0.00002(0.000)0.00080(0.001)0.00383(0.004)0.00068*(0.000)-0.06583**(0.032)(0.000)-0.00005(0.000)-0.00341*(0.002)0.00250 (0.014)0.00123** (0.001)-0.02893 (0.088)(0.000)0.00055**(0.000)-0.00272(0.004)-0.03512***(0.009)-0.00065 (0.002)0.18250** (0.086)City283283282282283283ObsAllAllStatePrivateEastC&EFixEFYYYYYY方政府债务扩张并没有对区域内上市公司投资产生明显的影响可能区域内债务的扩张会引起与之相邻城市的非国有控股企业(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1DEBT-2.03859***(0.305)-1.88923***(0.385)-0.41587***(0.114)-0.14019*(0.082)-0.30142***(0.078)-0.73163***(0.195)NERDEBT0.00016***(0.000)0.00014***(0.000)0.00010***(0.000)0.00020***(0.000)0.00019**(0.000)0.00017***(0.000)M2-0.01354***(0.003)-0.02291***(0.003)-0.00397***(0.001)-0.00179***(0.000)-0.00394***(0.001)-0.00845***(0.001)INF-0.05522***-0.07422***-0.01394***-0.00556***-0.01387***-0.03160***(0.006)(0.006)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.003)LLOAN2Y0.00051*0.00017**-0.000060.00025**0.00007(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.01723**-0.00364**-0.00450***-0.00529**-0.00671*(0.007)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.004)LGROWTH0.008870.001230.000250.00307**0.00389(0.005)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.003)LlGDP_PC-0.31261***-0.11219***-0.03042***-0.07980***-0.17388***(0.076)(0.012)(0.010)(0.014)(0.039)LlPOP-0.32981***-0.12010***-0.03328***-0.07377***-0.17665***(0.069)(0.015)(0.010)(0.016)(0.031)Lland_price1-0.05790**0.00071-0.01330-0.00037-0.02830**(0.023)(0.006)(0.010)(0.008)(0.012)_cons6.97019***(0.686)10.55123***2.21770***0.91676***1.89709***4.69469***(0.701)(0.176)(0.112)(0.168)(0.373)NCityFirms区的负面挤出效应都更大。这也与之前的相关研究结果相吻本文还检验了地方政府债务规模扩张和新注册公司之间的格执行“增量防范+存量化解”的治理逻辑，对地方政更符合市场规律，受到市场监控，提高政府借贷活动的透明度，员即便在离任后也需对其任期内所作出的债务决策负起完整的科技创新等高附加值产业，可以助力地方经济从“虚”向“实”[1]白重恩,张琼.中国的资本回报率及其影响因素分析[J].世界经济,2014,37(10):3-30.[2]陈斌开,张鹏飞,杨汝岱.政府教育投入、人力资本投资与中国城乡收入差距[J].管理世界,2010(01):36-43.[3