机构研究报告-中国豆类期货跨境套利分析报告-培训课件

中国豆类期货跨境套利框架ChinaSoybeanFuturesCross-BorderArbitrageFrameworkJanuary

2025目录CONTENT基Bas本ic概Co念ncepts理The论or基ies础市Ma场rket析Analy

sis分基本概念Basic

Concep理论基础Theories

02市场分析Market

Analysis0ts103Click

thehyperlink

tothe

specific

chapter点击链接跳转至相应章节01R返e回turnT录oContent目返回目录

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Content基本概念BasicConcepts1.1

套利

Arbitrage◼◼套利实际上是一种对冲交易，通常是指利用不同标的的价格差异，扣除交易成本，从中获得价差收益的交易模式。由于收益稳定，风险相对较小，套利交易目前已经成为国际金融市场中的一种主要交易手段。随着我国期货市场的规范发展以及上市品种的多元化，套利交易已经成为一些大机构参与期货市场的有效手段。◼◼Arbitrage

is

essentiallyahedgingstrategy

that

typically

exploits

pricediscrepanciesamong

different

targets

toearn

profitfromthe

spread,

after

accounting

for

transaction

costs.Arbitrage

hasbecome

amajor

trading

method

in

international

financialmarkets

dueto

itsstable

returns

andrelatively

low

risk.With

the

standardizeddevelopmentanddiversificationof

futures

products

in

China,

ithasalso

become

aneffective

means

forlarge

institutions

toparticipate

in

the

futures

market.豆粕期现套利

Soybeans

Futures-Physical

Arbitrage期现套利

Futures-Physical

Arbitrage菜粕期现套利

Rapeseed

Meal

Futures-Physical

Arbitrage跨期套利

Calendar

SpreadArbitrage盘面压榨利润套利

Crushing

MarginArbitrage

InFuturesMarket套利

Arbitrage跨市套利

Cross

MarketArbitrage现货压榨利润套利

Crushing

MarginArbitrage

InSpotMarket进口利润套利

Import

ProfitArbitrage豆菜粕价差套利

SoybeanMeal

-Rapeseed

Spread

Arbitrage油粕比套利

Oil-meal

RatioArbitrage跨品种套利

Cross-Product

ArbitrageSource:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.1.2

跨市场套利

Cross

Market

Arbitrage◼◼在两个或者两个以上的市场同时建立方向相反的头寸，以利用不同市场上资产价格的变化差异来赚取低风险利润的投资方式。低成本、同种（有关联的同类）商品、一买一卖、利用相对价格变化获利。形成跨市套利前提的两个重要因素，第一，商品是同一种商品，而且具有相同的质量品级；食糖、玉米、棉花看国内外价差，进口由进口利润决定；第二，进出口贸易顺畅，不存在限制因素（如进出口配额等）◼◼Establishing

offsetting

positionsintwoor

more

markets

to

profit

from

pricediscrepancieswith

lowrisk.

Lowcost、same

orrelated

commodity、buy

andsell、take

advantage

of

relativepricechanges.Twokey

factors

for

cross-market

arbitrage

preconditions:

First,

the

commodity

is

the

same

withidentical

qualitygrade;

asforsugar,

corn,

cotton:

domestic

andinternational

pricespreads

determine

import

profitability.

Second,smooth

import

andexport

trade

without

restrictive

factors

(e.g.,

quotas).Source:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

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report.02R返e回turnT录oContent目返回目录

Return

To

Content理论基础Theories2.1

期现套利成本

Cost

of

Futures-Spot

Arbitrage◼◼国际大豆定价中心在CBOT，中国是世界最大买家，生产企业、贸易商能够在两个市场完成完整的进口套利和套期保值操作。International

Soybean

PricingCenter

is

at

CBOT,

andChina

isthe

world‘s

biggest

buyer,international

anddomestic

producersandtraders

cancomplete

import

arbitrage

andhedgingoperations

in

both

markets.全球大豆产量分布全球大豆进口分布Global

Soybean

ProductionGlobal

Soybean

Import巴拉圭美国欧盟27国2.6%0.2%0.7%墨西哥其他其他美国0.0%11.5%巴拉圭23.0%29.1%阿根廷0.0%11.9%欧盟27国8.2%中国61.3%巴西39.4%墨西哥3.8%中国4.8%阿根廷3.4%巴西0.1%美国=

USA；巴西=Brazil；阿根廷=Argentina；墨西哥=Mexico;

欧盟27国=EU

27countries；巴拉圭=Paraguay；其他=OthersSource:Wind,

USDA,

CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

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content

ofthis

report.2.2

大豆提油套利基础

Soybean

Oil

Extraction

Arbitrage◼大豆国内市场和国际市场相互联动，通过期货市场进行套利和套保，规避价格波动风险，赚取稳定盈利。Soybeandomestic

andinternational

markets

areinterlinked,

usingfutures

markets

for

arbitrage

andhedgingto

mitigate

pricevolatility

risks

andearn

stableprofits.◼国际市场InternationalMarket期货市场Future

Market国内市场Domestic

Market采购运输仓储加工销售SalesPurchaseTransportStorageProcessing历时3个月3months期间有庞大的管道库存，包括：During

thisperiod,

there

isasubstantialpipelineinventory,

including:工厂库存FactoryInventory在途库存In-transitInventorySource:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.2.2

大豆提油套利的基础

Soybean

Oil

Extraction

Arbitrage锁定CBOT对应合约大豆期货价格、汇率、港口基差可以计算出对应合约（一月、五月、九月）船期按照压榨公式，计算出对应合约的评估国内期货价格相对强弱推算压榨亏损时折合生产成本推算油脂油料套保成本推算大豆到岸成本盘面压榨利润Locking

inCBOTsoybean

futuresprices,exchangerates,andport

basisallows

forcalculating

thelanded

costofsoybeans

forcorrespondingcontractmonths(Jan,May,

Sep).Assess

therelativestrength

ofdomesticfutures

prices.Calculate

thecorrespondingcontract'scrushmarginusing

theEstimateproductioncostswhencrushingis

ataloss.套保基差Estimate

thehedging

costsforoils

andmeals.Calculate

thehedgebasis.crushingformula.Source:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.2.3

大豆现货采购流程

Soybean

SpotPurchase◼大豆现货贸易生产环节众多，物流和程序较长。◼其中几个非常重要的关注点（成本、利润、升贴水）。◼◼Soybeanspot

trade

hasmany

production

stages

andinvolves

lengthy

logisticsandprocedures.Keyareas

offocus

include

costs,

profits,

andbasisadjustments.SalesPlanPurchase

PlanConfirm

SailScheduleCrush

Margin

FollowPurchasing

OpportunityPriceEnquiryConfirm

Terms&ConditionsSail

Schedule

AdjustmentConfirm

PriceTrack

contract

executionSource:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.2.4

大豆提油套利成本

Soybean

Crush

Cost◼◼完税价（人民币/吨）=到岸价格CIF（美元/吨）*1.09（9%增值税）*1.03（3%关税，其中美豆33%）*美元兑人民币汇率Tax-inclusive

price(CNY/ton)=CIFprice(USD/ton)

*1.09

(9%VAT)

*1.03

(3%customsduty,

33%

forUSsoybeans)

*USD/CNYexchange

rate.◼◼到岸价格（美元/吨）=离岸价格（美元/吨）+海运费（美元/吨）CIFprice(USD/ton)

=FOB

price(USD/ton)

+ocean

freight

(USD/ton).到岸价格（CNF）离岸价格（FOB）完税价格到岸价格（CIF）◼◼离岸价格（美元/吨）=（CBOT期货价格（美分/蒲）+升贴水（美分/蒲））*0.36745（转换系数）◼◼到岸价格CIF=到岸价格CNF（美元/吨）+保险费CIFprice=CNF

price(USD/ton)

+insurance

fee.FOB

price

(USD/ton)

=(CBOT

futures

price

(cents/bushel)

+basis(cents/bushel))

*0.36745

(conversion

factor)Source:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.2.5

大豆提油套利成本

Soybean

CrushMargin进口大豆成本

Import

Soybean

Cost压榨利润

CrushMargin◼进口大豆成本=进口大豆大船舱底完税价+100（港杂费+短倒费）◼=产品产出-进口大豆成本-压榨费用=豆粕出厂价格*0.79+豆油出厂价格*0.19-进口大豆成本-180（压榨费、包装费、财务费）◼

Import

SoybeanCost

=

Tax-inclusiveprice

+100◼=Product

output

-imported

soybean

cost-crushing

costs

=Soybeanmeal

ex-factoryprice

*0.79

+Soybean

oilex-factoryprice

*0.19-imported

soybeancost-180

(crushing,packaging,

and

financial

costs).关键要素

KeyFactors◼

测算的压榨利润决定于：CBOT期货点价，FOB

升贴水，海运费;豆粕销售价格、豆油销售价格；生产成本及各项费用。◼

由于期货定价时豆粕销售价格和豆油销售价格并不确定，油脂厂就用套期保值来采购并锁定压榨利润。◼

The

calculated

crushingmargin

dependson:

CBOTfutures

pricing,

FOBbasis,

ocean

freight;

soybean

meal

sales

price,soybeanoilsalesprice;production

costs

and

various

fees.◼

Sincethemeal

and

oilsalespricesareuncertain

atthe

timeof

futures

pricing,

oilmills

use

hedgingto

secure

purchases

and

lockincrushing

margins.Source:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.2.6

大豆提油套利升贴水

Soybean

CrushPremium公式

Formula◼◼升贴水（期现基差）＝现货价格－期货价格。Premium=

spotprice-

future

price定义

Definition影响因素

Factors基差主要包括运费、运输期内的仓储、装运等费用。受供求状况（天气与产量、市场需求量，汇率因素，税收政策，码头状况等）影响。还受大豆品质影响。各地的基差也是每天变化。◼◼现货升贴水也称为期现基差（BASIS

ORPREMIUM），指某一特定地点的现货价格与当时同种商品临近交割的期货合约价格间的差额。◼◼升贴水premiumThedifference

between

thespotpriceat

aspecificlocationand

the

futures

contractpricefor

the

samecommodity

nearing

delivery.Basis

primarily

includes

freight

costs,

storageduringtransportation,

and

loading

fees.Itisinfluenced

by

supplyand

demand

conditions

(weather

and

production,

marketdemand,exchange

rates,taxpolicies,port

conditions,etc.),as

well

asthe

qualityof

soybeans.

Basis

varies

dailyacrossdifferent

locations.特点

Characters◼◼比期货波动范围小，仅为几十美分。一定季节性规律，通常播种前和收割季较低。与期货有时正相关，有时负相关。Fluctuateslessthan

futures,and

has

acertainseasonalpattern,

usuallylower

beforeplanting

and

during

harvest

season.Sometimes

positivelycorrelated,

sometimesnegatively

correlatedwith

futures.Source:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

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content

ofthis

report.2.6

大豆提油套利升贴水

Soybean

CrushPremium◼中国油厂将期货多单转单给贸易商（EFP)，贸易商借以平掉手中的期货空头。在此前后，贸易商将相应数量的大豆现货转移给买方。该过程完成后贸易商手中的大豆现货多头和期货空头同时平仓了结。◼

Chinese

oil

mills

transfer

futureslong

positions

totraders

viaEFP,allowingtraders

toclose

their

short

futures

positions.

Traderstransfer

thecorresponding

amount

of

physical

soybeans

tothe

buyer.Uponcompletion

ofthis

process,

thetraders'

long

positions

in

physical

soybeans

and

shortpositions

infutures

aresimultaneously

closed

out.◼中国油厂接受升贴水报价，并在一定期限内购买相应数量的期货（点价）◼

Chinese

oil

mills

accept

thebasis

quote

and

purchase

acorrespondingamount

of

futures

withinacertain

period.◼贸易商计算自己的成本和利润，确定向中国油厂的升贴水报价，并和中国油厂签订出口合同；◼

Traderscalculate

their

costs

and

profits,

determine

thebasis

for

Chinese

crushers,

and

sign

export

contracts

withChinese

oilmills.◼贸易商向农场主收购大豆，同时在期货市场卖出相应期货合约进行保值，该过程完成后手中持有大豆现货多头和相应期货空头；◼

Traderspurchase

soybeans

fromfarmers

and

simultaneously

sellcorresponding

futures

contracts

in

thefutures

market

for

hedging,resulting

in

holding

long

positions

in

physical

soybeans

and

shortpositions

in

futures.Source:CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

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only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

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CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

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ofthe

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ofthis

report.2.7

现货套利总结

Arbitrage

with

SoptSummary锁定CBOT对应合约大豆期货价格、汇率、港口基差可以计算出对应合约（1月、5月、9月）船期的大豆到岸成本CalculateCIF

For

Soybean

Price,ByLockingCBOT、exchange

Rate

Etc.1、进口大豆压榨利润计算/Import

Soybean

CrushMargin

Calculation否/No2、是否盈利?

Profitable？是/Yes3、CBOT大豆点价买入/

Long

CBOTSoybean

With

Basis4、DCE豆粕豆油卖出/

Short

Soybean

OilAndMeans

In

DCE5、大豆压榨成豆粕和豆油/Soybeans

ArePressed

Into

Meal

AndOil6、油粕现货高于期货价?Spot

>Futures?否no是yes9、与7或8中豆粕、豆油等销售量同时空单平仓

CloseTheShort

PositionWhen

Sales7、豆粕豆油现货销售

SalesInSpot

Mkt8、豆粕豆油存储交割

Storage&Delivery10、轮转库存

Rotating

Inventory12、库存完结

Inventory

Ends11、与10中轮转库存等量期货合约展期

RollingFuturesContract13、期货平仓

CloseTheShort

Position14、套利完结评估

AssessmentSource:CITIC

FuturesThis

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The

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do

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advice

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CITICFutures

donot

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due

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report.2.7

现货套利总结

Arbitrage

withoutSpot

Summary锁定CBOT对应合约大豆期货价格、汇率、港口基差可以计算出对应合约（1月、5月、9月）船期的大豆到岸成本CalculateCIFForSoybeanPrice,By

LockingCbot、1、进口大豆压榨利润计算/Import

Soybean

CrushMarginCalculation否

N2、盈利?Profitable?是

Y3、CBOT大豆点价买入/Long

CBOTSoybeanWith

Basis4、DCE豆粕豆油卖出/Short

Soybean

OilAndMeans

inDCEAsImport

CrushingMargins

TurnToLosses,ClosePositionsOnBothSidesSimultaneously.5、双边持仓过程至压榨利润走弱（套利窗口关闭），双边同时平仓Source:CITIC

FuturesThis

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The

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Content市场分析Market

Analysis3.1

利润复盘

CrushMargin

Historical

Data◼从历史情况来看，国内进口大豆压榨利润整体处于-500-1500元/吨区间，2022年达到峰值，此后呈现出趋势性回落。◼From

ahistorical

review,

the

crushingmargin

of

imported

soybeansfor

Chinese

oilmill

hasgenerallybeenwithin

the

range

of

-500to

1500CNY/ton,

reachingitspeakin2022,

andthen

showing

atrend

of

fallingthereafter.中国油厂压榨利润China

Mills’

Crushing

Margin广东江苏大连山东天津GuangdongJiangsuDalianShandongTianjin150010005000-500-10002013-01-31

2013-10-31

2014-07-31

2015-04-30

2016-01-31

2016-10-31

2017-07-31

2018-04-30

2019-01-31

2019-10-31

2020-07-31

2021-04-30

2022-01-31

2022-10-31

2023-07-31

2024-04-30Source:

USDA,iFind,CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.3.1

利润复盘

CrushMargin

Historical

Data◼◼◼近十年，我国进口大豆压榨利润变化整体可以分为三阶段。1）2013-2020年：国内豆油和豆粕供需矛盾并不突出，价格相对稳定，进口大豆压榨利润维持在-500-500元/吨。2）2020年-2022年：由于原油价格大幅上涨，印尼、马来棕榈油产量不及预期，油脂价格持续上行，国内进口大豆压榨利润中枢明显上移。◼3）2023年-至今：由于全球经济低迷，原油价格下跌，大豆进入增产周期拖累油脂价格，叠加人民币汇率持续贬值，国内进口大豆压榨利润呈现趋势性下滑。◼◼Over

the

past

decade,

the

changes

inChina‘s

imported

soybeancrushingmargin

canbebroadlydivided

intothree

stages.From

2013to

2020:

The

supplyanddemand

contradiction

of

domestic

soybeanoilandmeal

was

not

prominent,

priceswererelativelystable,

andthe

crushingmargin

of

imported

soybeanswasmaintainedat-500

to500CNY/ton.From

2020to

2022:

Dueto

the

significant

increaseincrude

oil

pricesandthe

unexpectedproduction

of

palmoil

inIndonesiaandMalaysia,

the

prices

ofedibleoils

continued

to

rise,

resulting

in

anoticeableupwardshift

in

the

central

tendency

of

China'simported

soybeancrushingmargin.◼◼From

2023to

the

present:

Dueto

the

globaleconomic

downturn,fallingcrude

oil

prices,

andthe

soybeanproduction

cycledragging

down

the

priceof

edible

oils,

coupledwith

the

continuousdepreciationof

the

Chineseyuan,the

crushingprofit

ofimported

soybeansinChinahasshown

atrend

of

decline.Source:

USDA,iFind,CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.3.2

压榨利润季节性

Seasonality

of

Crushing

Margin◼第一季度和第四季度的大豆压榨利润明显强于第二季度和第三季度。主要成因如下：

1）四季度美豆集中上市，原材料的供应宽松导致压榨成本较低；2）四季度和一季度是油脂消费的旺季，对于油脂价格有一定支撑；3）一季度油厂的开机率和压榨量相对较低，油脂供应相对有限。◼The

soybeancrushingprofit

inthe

first

andfourth

quarters

is

significantly

stronger

than

inthe

secondandthird

quarters.

Themainreasons

are

asfollows.In

Q4,

U.S.

soybeansenters

the

market,

andthe

amplesupplyof

raw

materials

leadsto

lowercrushingcosts;

Q4

andQ1

arethe

peakseasons

for

edibleoil

consumption,

which

providessome

support

for

oilprices;

the

oilmills'operational

rates

andcrushing

volumesare

relatively

low,

resulting

in

arelatively

limitedsupplyof

oils.油厂榨利季度均值全球大豆进口分布Average

Quarterly

Crush

ofOil

PlantsGlobal

Soybean

Import元/吨2005-2024元/吨大豆压榨利润Yuan/Ton1402000大连山东天津江苏广东均值120100806040200DalianShandongTianjinJiangsuGuangdongMean150010005000-500-1000一季度

Q1二季度

Q2三季度

Q3四季度

Q4全年

All

Year2020/062021/01

2021/08

2022/032022/10

2023/052023/12

2024/07Source:Wind,

USDA,

CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.3.2

压榨利润季节性

Seasonality

of

Crushing

Margin◼在丰产年份期间，美豆压榨利润通常处于-300-600元/吨区间，南美大豆利润通常处于-600-400元/吨区间，美豆的压榨利润整体高于南美大豆，导致这种原因的差异在于升贴水的不同。◼Duringyearsof

abundant

harvest,

the

crushingprofit

for

U.S.soybeanstypically

fallswithin

the

range

of

-300

to

600CNY/ton,while

the

profit

for

South

Americansoybeansusuallyfallswithin

the

range

of-600

to

400CNY/ton.

The

overall

crushingprofit

forU.S.

soybeansishigherthan

that

for

SouthAmerican

soybeans,andthisdifference

is

primarily

attributed

to

the

variations

inbasisdifferentials.美豆、南美豆榨利季节性Seasonality

ofUS

Soybean

and

South

American

Soybean元/吨

Yuan/Ton美豆榨利季节性-增产年份

U.S.

Soybean元/吨

Yuan/Ton

南美豆榨利季节性-增产年份

SouthAmerican

Soybean2013

年2014

年2016

年2024

年2013

年2014

年2016

年2024

年700600500400300200100060040020002020

年2021

年2020

年2021

年-200-400-600-800-100-200-300-400第1周

第5周

第9周

第13周第17周第21周第25周第29周第33周第37周第41周第45周第49周第53周第1周

第5周

第9周

第13周第17周第21周第25周第29周第33周第37周第41周第45周第49周第53周Source:Wind,

USDA,

CITIC

FuturesThis

report

is

not

a

service

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

The

opinions

and

information

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

do

not

constituteinvestment

advice

to

anyone.

CITICFutures

donot

consider

relevant

personnel

asclient

due

totheir

attention,

receipt,

orreading

ofthe

content

ofthis

report.3.2

压榨利润季节性

Seasonality

of

Crushing

Margin◼在减产年份，我国进口大豆压榨利润会呈现一定程度下滑，核心原因在于成本下降对于产成品价格的拖累。其中，进口美豆压榨利润通常在-500-400元/吨区间，进口南美大豆压榨利润通常在-800-400元/吨区间。◼In

yearsof

reduced

production,

the

crushing

profit

of

imported

soybeansinChina

will

showacertain

degree

of

decline,

with

thecore

reason

beingthat

the

reduction

incosts

drags

down

the

pricesof

finishedproducts.

Among

them,

the

crushingprofit

ofimported

U.S.

soybeansis

usuallyinthe

range

of-500

to

400CNY/ton,

andthe

crushingprofit

of

imported

SouthAmericansoybeansisusually

inthe

range

of-800to

400CNY/ton.美豆、南美豆榨利季节性Seasonality

ofUS

Soybean

and

South

American

SoybeanYuan/Ton元/吨美豆榨利季节性-减产年份

U.S.

Soybean元/吨Y