银行业华创金融红利资产月报：10月红利板块交易占比上升险资举牌热情延续

目 录TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\u一、月度行情表现：2025年10月银行板块上涨 5（一）2025年10银板块涨红资表较好 5（二）市环：10国债率荡行红资产交比升 7二、银行基本面跟踪 8（一）行月数跟踪 8（二）3Q25银板持降至史位投价凸显 10三、险资动态：举热延续，全年迄今34起 10四、投资建议 五、风险提示 12图表目录图表1 225年来业涨幅申一行分类（至10） 5图表2 2023年今各子块值况至10/31） 5图表3 2025.1.1-2025.10.31 A银板个跌幅 6图表4 2025.1.1-2025.10.31 H银板个跌幅 7图表5 债债期益率势（%） 7图表6 行块月交额占市热情（亿，%） 8图表7 行块史值指标 8图表8 9月融据览 9图表9 2015-2025险举牌数计未增） 图表10 2025年资牌标行分布 图表2025险牌的A/H股布 图表12 2025年资牌参方数计 20252一、月度行情表现：2025年10月银行板块上涨（一）2025年101、银行板块上涨4.36%，继续调整2025年10月1日至10月31日，银行业累计上涨4.36%，跑赢沪深300指数4.36pct，31图表1 225年以来各业涨跌幅（申万一行分类（截至10）4.36%12.00%4.36%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%-2.00%-4.00%-6.00%沪深300计算机房地产电子传媒2、各子板块表现：国有行、城商行估值上升明显20251011031PB0.70XPB0.64X0.67XPB0.59X0.58X。图表2 2023年至今银各子板块估值情况截至10/31）0.85000.80000.75000.70000.65000.60000.55000.50000.45000.4000CS国有银行Ⅲ CS股份制银行 CS城商行3、个股表现：业绩改善的城商行和国有行领涨1020251031行以及农行、中行等国有行领涨，涨幅靠前的银行为重庆银行（194%、农业银行（19.34%）、厦门银行（12.26%）、上海银行（9.30%）、青岛银行（8.82%）。业绩不及预期的几家股份行和城商行本月下跌，包括浦发银行（-3.45%）、成都银行（-2.55%）、民生银行（-1.76%）、（-0.6%）。-3.053.54%3.50%3.48%-3.053.54%3.50%3.48%3.23%3.20%3.07%6.60%%.503.51%-4%62.5%5.0812.50%%浦发银.47%0.63%-60%7.11.22%-14.19%6%3.6.71%-3.00%0%1-6.6-2.55%2.95%成都银行.48%0.72%-04%-5.35%2.0%9.300%4.15.93%-%-10.59-1.76%-1.06%民生银行2%.72.84%-23%0.50.00%5.03%3%4.5.53%-06.67%-%-11.11-0.60%-9.65%光大银行2.77%-.71%-14%1.71.42%-%9.250%3.73%0.3.85%8%6.94-0.00%10.36%西安银行2.13%-.66%-17%2.0-0.34%4.10%.63%24%4.9.23%5%0-4.80.00%6.21%邮储银行0.34%-.38%-1%02.80%1.7%7.6910.06%0%0.04.42%-%8.02-0.34%7.42%浙商银行0.65%-.16%-24%1.82.53%-%7.413%5.20%0.00.67%-%.04-61.07%2.88%紫金银行%.443%.443%52.95.89%-0%5.89%0.93.57%-%.78-51.19%8.55%招商银行2.22%-.80%-5%95.43%2.0%8.46.02%3.73%2-4.92%-1.35%4.33%苏州银行0.61%-.50%-2%23.40.66%-5.00%.88%2-6.98%-%8.17-1.45%-4.62%北京银行4.76%-.00%-23%1.5-4.15%-3%7.04%4.08%2.30.48%-%1-4.81.52%-3.42%郑州银行1.18%-.10%-23%-0.42.16%-7%6.13%3.71%0.7.40%0%4-4.81.69%1.58%兰州银行.00%67%.12%04.13.38%-%8.48%7.90.00%3-1.02%-%-11.421.91%10.51%兴业银行1.97%-.52%04%2.3-3.11%-6%5.9%7.683%1.31.47%-%.89-51.94%1.90%平安银行.03%1.37%-21%0.20%1.813.33%0.96%.00%3-1.12%-%8-3.72.82%9.23%杭州银行2.11%-.69%-70%1.9%4.16%9.099%5.57%0.26%.71%7.20-7.82%常熟银行1.07%-.92%-54%1.32.45%-12.98%.84%2.42%2-0.71%-%.35-51.18%瑞丰银行1.35%-.26%-32%1.43.32%-%10.31.44%3.26%1-3%.31%1-3.66.29%无锡银行.38%0.52%-5%82.27%0.8%9.98.11%3.20%1-3.14%-%-1.717.99%南京银行3.84%-.00%-55%8.47.15%-3.58%1%0.54.78%-%-13.08-10.61%华夏银行1.64%-.33%-0%93.69%1.2%10.544%4.35%0.02.29%-%9.06-9.30%青农商行3%.11.67%-4%43.10.38%-15.08%8%5.3.81%-40.94%-%6-4.33%4.212.91%苏农银行2%.13.29%-62%7.42.66%14%5.8-0.06%.04%-57.23%-4.77%1%5.019.88%渝农商行.94%5%.1546%0.69%0.9%8.50-2.77%.59%-47.63%-3.05%0%5.413.28%齐鲁银行1.88%-.43%-4%14.50.72%7%6.610.32%0%2.43.13%-%6.95-6%5.55.07%沪农商行1.67%-.71%-2%12.62.04%-2%5.7%7.370%2.43.13%-%6.95-6%5.56.36%贵阳银行2.29%-.04%-3%62.61.18%-%9.95.04%2.44%-09%.80%.87-45%5.68.86%张家港行0.57%-.35%-0%63.70%2.64-%.33-44%6.08.75%建设银行.64%0.73%09%0.24%1.71-%-1.758%6.517.15%工商银行.00%0.60%-43%7.22.32%-%10.124%3.9.89%1-%.003%7.29-4%6.714.37%江阴银行4.37%-.55%-0%33.34%2.91.74%6%5.2.38%-44.97%-%7.57-5%6.8-2.76%交通银行.52%8.96%-7%46.37.44%-11.76%.43%26%5.26%.21%.34-63%7.220.46%宁波银行0%.44.06%-8%54.06.95%%8.07.72%-34.16%-%7.39-8%7.415.30%江苏银行4.87%-%.923%43.01%1.4%10.40%6.78.78%1-3.54%-%8.86-0%7.513.03%中信银行0%.21.92%-0%03.70.83%-0.18%.81%1.25%1-0.54%-%.16-60%8.36.36%中国银行1%.73.05%-72%7.11.42%-%8.401%5.6.60%-02.73%-%.03-68%8.314.74%长沙银行1%.639%.41%33.47.58%%9.91.97%2.62%-4%.373%2%8.837.75%青岛银行4%.61.65%0%45.2%5.381.93%.39%2.58%-36.74%-%.08-60%9.39.28%上海银行1.60%-.26%-18%7.42.21%-12.50%%7.268%0.82.19%-%.27-6%12.2627.96%厦门银行1.11%-.58%-07%0.9%4.632.03%%6.330%9.41.43%1%.99-419.34%55.76%农业银行0.81%-.88%-3.87%110.20%14.58%-0.77%.91%-62.67%-%9.25-19.48%19.84%重庆银行25/0125/0225/0325/0425/0525/0625/0725/0825/0925/10年初至今涨跌幅25/0725/06-13.83----25/0725/06-13.83---------------%0.00%0.00%76.66%1.53.08%3%13.43%0.76.76%5%-1.4-8.82%6.90%中原银行%4.487%8.5-3%3.12%-12.10%6.930.65%7%6.10.00%6%1.1-8.05%19.40%哈尔滨银行1%.4-7%6.670%0.05%3.7-0.00%5.15%8%13.32.25%7%0.5-5.71%5.05%广州农商银行7%-19.7%2.833%.1-43%-8.3%11.606.99%3%6.50.00%7%.0-5-4.78%-16.63%东莞农商银行%6.949%5.1-4%-2.70%-0.7-0.71%3.57%9%2.70%5.04%.4-5-4.32%-1.67%晋商银行%0.007%-1.32%9.73%-6.36%6.7.86%84%-15.8%10.146%.2-5-4.17%-0.85%江西银行%7.857%-0.21%.4-50%4.0%10.712.07%19%6.26.13%1%.2-4-3.16%21.51%民生银行1%-2.90%-1.05%.0-53%2.1-3%5.4%21.659%13.93.03%4%.9-2-3.03%26.63%郑州银行%0.400%7.6-%35.63%-5.32.60%1.81%13%9.43.45%3%-8.9-2.75%-0.40%甘肃银行%1.35%5.78%87.95%1.9%7%.3-3-1.94%20.60%浙商银行%4.84%7.593%-1.54%14.6%57%3.0-1.61%55.49%青岛银行%4.69%3.296%0.9%16.32%7.77.99%8%.5-35.15%3%-7.4-1.54%12.52%中国光大银行%5.473%11.67%1.89%-1.19%7.02.70%6%1.25%4.57%9.6-1.19%49.56%汇丰控股%5.621%8.5-3%2.31%3.4-1.10%-1.11%3%15.70.97%8%0.9-0.97%14.61%渤海银行5%.9-43%-1.70%10.07%4.313.89%%20.981%-1.20.82%4%3.6-0.39%51.93%天津银行%2.08%0.684%0.34%0.3-0.33%3.07%5%-1.30.00%3%-1.00.00%3.77%威海银行%1.31%6.250%2.00%2.02.00%2.00%0%2.02.00%0%2.0.00%222.75%邮储银行%0.00%4.863%1.93%10.20%7.9%22.935%-9.0%11.825%-11.6.45%243.86%徽商银行%1.01%4.11%04.43%4.1-%10.342.50%14%1.66.71%0%-0.4.94%227.02%建设银行%4.80%9.70%56.35%4.6-7%5.00.00%4%-0.46.17%0%0.0.29%318.19%中国银行%6.62%6.688%0.82%-7.515.19%2.17%13%.2-35.88%8%.5-2.02%426.55%招商银行%1.20%8.321%14.85%2.53.71%7.23%2%3.50.23%2%4.5.49%461.89%中银香港%4.65%3.973%0.77%3.9-3%7.3.93%89%-0.34.15%2%-0.5.88%422.57%工商银行%7.695%18.96%.8-41%1.3-%8.876.60%8%8.41.53%4%4.5.41%569.40%渣打集团%1.69%4.93%55.43%0.91.03%6.26%5%.1-34.81%7%.9-2.67%515.24%交通银行7%-1.0%8.631%-3.88%-2.53.71%5.59%5%-1.821.23%1%-0.7.77%537.81%大新金融%2.37%2.73%87.99%12.6%10.662.47%3%6.0-7.54%4%4.3.32%639.85%重庆农村商业银行4%-1.6%3.68%38.29%16.95%7.10.74%1%4.9-3.74%7%-1.45%9.237.33%重庆银行%0.002%16.0%84.99%-8.03.37%.60%93%0.35%5.86%.8-24%10.744.90%东亚银行%3.54%2.88%76.46%0.612.72%0.90%17%-2.24.79%8%.8-36%10.741.37%中信银行5%-3.0%210.82%-2.73%-2.33%6.36.84%9%0.9%2%.3-34%12.244.67%大新银行集团6%-0.5%8.188%1.08%1.23%6.31.11%14%5.7-1.94%0%0.06%12.740.98%农业银行%%511.80%-0.45%2.72.57%7.10%5%-2.51.69%7%6.329.03%68.64%恒生银行25/0125/0225/0325/0425/0525/0825/0925/10年初至今涨跌幅（二）市场环境：10年期国债利率震荡下行，红利资产成交占比上升1、利率环境：10年期国债利率震荡下行2025年10月，101101.85%1.80%1期债率上行下，初在1.37%-1.38%右。图表5 中债国债到期益率走势图（%）3.002.502.001.501.000.500.00

0.900.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.0010年-1年利差（右轴） 中国中债国债到期收益率:10年 中国中债国债到期收益率:1年2、市场交易情况2025年10月市场防御避险需求上升，银行板块交易占比环比提升0.37pct至1.82%。截1031AB10图表6 银行板块每月交额及占比市场热情（亿元，%）银行板块成交额和热度2023年1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月成交额（亿元）2,192.32,531.73,547.63,334.35,134.72,609.22,667.03,592.1042,627.32,553.6262,545.12,600.2成交额1.6631.542.7681.361.5011.8961.8271.8171.311.5822024年3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月成交额（亿元）4,258.03,892.93,545.04,117.44,092.73,457.54,362.33,773.54,709.46,641.25,569.46,119.3成交额占比总AB成交额2.622.7121.6622.2472.4142.5182.8922.8723.111.8321.3481.7262025年1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月成交额（亿元）4,404.504,228.874,811.305,651.294,873.706,398.637,889.567145.187,698.626,696.49成交额占比总AB成交额2.031.2771.52.182.112.402.101.471.451.82截至10月31日）截止10月3101780）整体PE为6370470B为0.427.65。4.02%31.96%。图表7 银行板块历史值指标二、银行基本面跟踪（一）行业月度数据跟踪10月15年期LPR1LPR35年期LPR3.5%。9月社融：10152025993.5322971.2930009月社融点评：。202593.5322978.7%0.7pct8910681.23471203150037291.6366270%1869现票据同比多增1923亿元。信贷基本延续891.29300081）企业端：91.222700/7100亿/40262500471291005002）居民端：93890亿/1421/25001279/200亿9306.79.99月M1增速继续走高，M2增速回落至8.4%，居民和企业存款有所回流。9月M1增速环比上升1.2pct至7.2%，连续5个月上升，既有去年手工补息的低基数效应，也有企业和居民资金活化度提升的影响。M2-M1剪刀差收窄至1.2pct，或表明企业生产经营活跃度提升、居民投资消费需求回暖等积极信号。存款增量方面，在资本市场波动加剧，季末月部分存款回流至表内的背景下，部分非银存款流向居民和企业部门。9月居民存款、企业存款分别新增2.96万亿/9194亿元，同比分别+7600/+1494亿元，财政存款/非银存款则分别减少8400亿元/1.06万亿元。分别同比多减6042亿元/少增1.97万亿元。社会融资规模单位：亿元2024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-04社会融资规模单位：亿元2024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-09社融存量同比增速8.1%8.0%7.8%7.8%8.0%8.0%8.2%8.4%8.7%8.7%8.9%9.0%8.8%8.7%社融当月新增30,32337,63514,12023,28828,53770,54622,33158,96111,59922,89942,25111,30725,66835,338社融同比多增-956-3,691-4,321-1,2669,2115,8127,37210,62612,2572,2769,2663,600-4,655-2,297其中：人民币贷款-3,001-5,627-1,872-5,904-2,6903,793-3,2455,314-2,465-2,2741,673-3,488-4,158-3,662外币贷款-411103-862-111-40-1,381-272-8381806211,132803521351表外融资155-1,2971,129805362-283-258-631,386-41-184-9109981,869——委托贷款-7218421020323808-56300-91-157-397-522-190-110——信托贷款705-396-221-106-196-109-901-443-219-5168175-13456——未贴现银行承兑汇票-478-1,0851,140708535-982699801,696167145-5631,3221,923直接融资2,4292,663-5,3712,63910,8004,17111,1695,28311,5043,5715,4036,587-2,546-1,068——企业债券融资-1,085-2,576-1919932,582134279-5,1426331,211322712-3652,031——非金融企业境内股票融资-904-198-3769-2451-381852054149274324372——政府债券4,4185,437-5,1431,5778,2423,98610,92810,24010,6662,3195,0325,601-2,505-3,471其他融资-1284672,6551,305779-488-229301,6523991,242608530213信贷数据单位：亿元2024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-09人民币贷款当月新增9,00015,9005,0005,8009,90051,30010,10036,4002,8006,20022,400-5005,90012,900人民币贷款同比多增-4,600-7,200-2,384-5,100-1,8002,100-4,4005,500-4,500-3,3001,100-3,100-3,100-3,000其中：居民户贷款-2,022-3,5851,946-2251,279-5,3632,016447-50-217267-2,793-1,597-1,110——短期贷款-1,604-5151,543-964-171-4,0252,127-67-501-451150-1,671-611-1,279——中长期贷款-402-3,1703936691,538-1,337-112531435232151-1,200-1,000200非金融企业及机关团体贷款-1,088-1,934-3,863-5,721-4,0169,200-5,3005,000-2,500-2,1001,400-700-2,500-2,700——短期贷款-1,499-1,086-130-1,8054352,800-2,0004,600-7002,3004,900-2,6002,500-1,482-8693,0034,5844,460514-40-2,826-3,7163,125-4,920-4,712-2,128-2,360-8,2121,500-7,500-200-1,600-1,700400-3,900-200-500非银行金融机构贷款-997-860-988-494475-2,257-1,201256-973226391-31225356——其他贷款-493-8215211,34046252085-203-977-1,209-958424772454货币增长22025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-09M1同.2%0.4%0.1%1.6%1.5%2.3%4.6%5.6%6.0%7.2%M2同比增速6.3%6.8%7.5%7.1%7.3%7.0%7.0%7.0%8.0%7.9%8.3%8.8%8.8%8.4%M2-M1剪刀差9.3%10.1%9.8%7.8%6.1%6.6%6.9%5.4%6.5%5.6%3.7%3.2%2.8%1.2%（二）3Q25银行板块持仓降至历史低位，投资价值凸显3Q251）2Q2519.5%4.14301.153%2Q2052）市场风偏提升，银行股持仓占比下降：三季度成长风格明显，银行作为低风偏的防御性板块，受主动型公募基金减持。其中增持前五的行业分别为电子（+69pct、通信（+.91p2.43pc+1.3pc（0.5pc（3.07c.79pc（1.6c（1.43c1.25pc307pct至1.1205Q23的198三季度被动指数型基金规模大幅扩张。三季度全部基金规模35.9万亿，较二季度上升4.526.8%（+25.5（+22.3万股（+12.3亿股。从持仓市值来看，主要是电子（3133.9亿元、非银金融（2417.8亿元）（1923.23Q2521.1（-9.96（-6.62（-1.52。主动型基金主要减配机构持仓较重的标的。分银行类型来看，主要减配优质城商行和股份行，国有行/股份行/城商行/农商