穆迪评级：2026全球汽车市场更新-2026-01-市场解读

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

Agenda

1

2

3

4

5

TheframeworkforUStariffsonautosandautopartsissettling

Howwillglobalautomakersandpartssuppliersadapttoalleviatetheburden?

Changesinemissionregulationsandpurchase

incentiveswillimpacttheadoptionofelectricvehiclesinChina,EuropeandtheUS

Canlowersalestranslateintobetterearnings?

FiercecompetitionintheChineseautomarket

Willglobalautomakersandsuppliersadaptorretreat?

Challengedexportmarkets,increasedcompetitionandmuteddomesticdemand

HowareEuropeanautomakerspreparingforlower-for-longervolumes?

USconsumersarebecomingmoreanxiousaboutinflation,tariffsandthelabormarket

Shouldautocaptivefinancecompaniesbeconcerned?

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

Globallightvehiclesalestogrowunder2%in2026

SlowdowninsalesgrowthexpectedinUS,China

Inthousandunits202320242025E2026E

一AffordabilityandmodestuptickinunemploymentratetoholdbackUSsales

一SalesinWesternEuropepickingupafterflattish2025

一Chinasalesexpectationstemperedby:

.Possiblemoderationin

governmentstimulusmeasures

GlobalLightVehicleSales

86,850

88,795

90,650

92,176

.Effectofglobaltradetensionsonexports

US15,55215,81616,07516,200

1.7%1.6%0.8%

WesternEurope13,27913,38013,37013,560

0.8%-0.1%1.4%

China25,18425,57726,85627,393

1.6%5.0%2.0%

Chinaexports

4,910

5,859

6,328

6,581

19.3%8.0%4.0%

Chinatotal30,09431,43633,18433,974

2.2%2.1%1.7%

4.5%5.6%2.4%

TotalnumberofgloballightvehiclesexcludesChinaexports,inlinewithGlobalDatanewdefinition.

Sources:GlobalData,EuropeanAutomobileManufacturersIAssociation(ACEA),ChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturers(CAAM),Moody’sRatings

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

Electrificationdriveslocalbrands’sharegainsinChina

30

25

Unitsales(million)

20

15

10

5

-

Chinapassengervehicleunitsales(leftaxis)

Domesticbrandas%ofChinapassengervehicleunitsalesmarketshare(rightaxis)

2020202120222023202410M25

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source:ChinaAssociationofAutomobileManufacturers

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

EndofEVtaxcreditswilldownshiftadoptionrateinUS

CanlowersalesimproveEVeconomics?

BEVadoptionrateBEVprioradoptionrate

一Adoptionratetodroptopre-taxcreditsaleslevels

一RecoverydependentonqualityofEVofferings,pricepointand

consumerinterestinEVs

一Changeinemissionregulationsmeansautomakerswillbenefitfrom:

.Lowercompliancecost

.Powertrainflexibility

.Manufacturingfootprintadjustments

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

2021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Source:ArgonneNationalLaboratoryandMoody'sRatings

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

TariffRollerCoaster

U.S.tariffrate,%

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

30%ontheEU&Mexico

10%“90-day”pause145%onChina

Electronicsexempt

▲

EU,Japandeals,CanadaUSMCAexemption

50%onBrazil&India

10%

reductiononChina

▲

20%

Vietnamdeal

50%onsteel&aluminum

Switzerlanddeal&foodexemptions

“Liberation

Day”reciprocaltariffs

Non-USMCA25%

30-daypauseforMexico&Canada

Returnto

100%on

20%onChina 25%Canada(10%onenergy)

Automakers

30%

reciprocal

onChina

Koreadeal,Mexico

extension

pharma,25%-50%on

furniture,trucks,

25%Mexico

1-month

exemption

etc.

35%on

Canada

135%onChina,

REE

retaliation

Rising

USMCA

Steel&aluminumto25%

25%on

10%China25%Canada25%Mexico

30-daypauseforMexico&Canada

▲

compliance

autos

Aug1globalchange

25%onJapan,Korea,etc.&

Federalpauses

50%oncopperFederalappealscourt

uilfriffscieiliwn

Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25

U.S.statedtariffrateU.S.effectivetariffrate(actualhistory)

Sources:BEA,CensusBureau,APNews,Moody’sAnalytics.Timingbasedontariffannouncements,notimplementation.Juntariffrateisestimated.

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

CompositionofTariffPass-Through

DivisionoftariffcoststhroughAugust2025

Consumers29%

U.S.companies53%

Foreign

exporters

18%

Sources:BLS,BEA,Moody’sAnalytics

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

ImprovementinAffordabilityHalted

CoxAutomotive/Moody’sAnalyticsVehicleAffordabilityIndex,wksofmedianincometopurchasenewvehicle

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0-2.0-3.0

-4.0

Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25Apr-25Jul-25Oct-25

%changemoago(L)Wks(R)

39.5

39.0

38.5

38.0

37.5

37.0

36.5

36.0

35.5

35.0

Sources:CoxAutomotiveInc.,Moody’sAnalytics

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

JapaneseAutomakers’DiscountingIsEnding

Exportpricedeflatorindexes,yenbasis

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

“LiberationDay”tariffsannounced

22232425PassengercarsforNorthAmericaPassengercarsforrestofworld

Sources:BankofJapan,Moody’sAnalytics

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

UStariffshurtautomakers

50%oflightvehiclesalesareimported50%ofvehicleimportsfromMexico,Canada

Source:InternationalTradeAdministration

Europeansuppliers'marginstorecovermoderatelyin2026

BenefitsfromrestructuringandlowertariffexposureenablespartssupplierstogeneratetemporarilyhigherEBITmarginsversusautomakers

AggregatedEBITmargins(Moody'sadjusted)ofratedEuropeanautomakersandpartssuppliersSources:Moody'sFinancialMetrics(MFM),Moody'sRatingsestimates

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

ConfidenceNearRecordLows

Overallconsumersentimentindex

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Jul-24Jan-25Jul-25

ConferenceBoard,1985=100Univ.ofMichigan,1966Q1=100

-·ConferenceBoard,long-runavg-·Univ.ofMichigan,long-runavg

Sources:TheConferenceBoard,Univ.ofMichigan,Moody’sAnalytics

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

TheWell-To-DoArePoweringConsumerSpending

Personaloutlaysbyincomegroup,1999Q4=100

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

19Q420Q421Q422Q423Q424Q4

Lowerincome:0to39.9%Middleincome:40to79.99%Highincome:80to100%

Veryhighincome:96.6to100%--Consumerpriceindex

Sources:BLS,Moody’sAnalytics

Assetqualitystabilizes,althoughdelinquenciesincreasemoderatelyinQ32025

Discrete,annualizednetcharge-offs/averagegrossloansvs

unemploymentrate,Q32024–Q32025Delinquencystatusofretailconsumerreceivables

1.2%

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%

Q32024Q42024Q12025Q22025Q32025UnemploymentRate

FordCredit

(ba2stable)

GMF

(ba2stable)

HondaFinance

(ba1stable)

AverageToyotaCredit

(ba2stable)

5.4%

4.4%

3.4%

2.4%

1.4%

0.4%

-0.6%

1)HondaFinancereferstoAmericanHondaFinanceCorporation,FordCreditreferstoFordMotorCreditCompanyLLC,ToyotaCreditreferstoToyotaMotorCreditCorporationandGMFreferstoGeneralMotorsFinancialCompany,Inc..2)FordCredit'searly-stagedelinquencyis31-59dayspastdue,mid-stageis61-120dayspastdue,andlate-stageis120+dayspastdue.3)GMFinancial’searly-stagedelinquencyis31-60dayspastdue,andmid-stageis61+daypastdue.4)ToyotaCreditandHondafinance'searly-stagedelinquencyis30-59dayspastdue,mid-stageis60-89dayspastdue,andlate-stageis90+dayspastdue.

5)Quartersandyearsintheexhibitrefertocalendarquartersandyears.6)Graphsabovedonotshowthedatafrom2021-2022Source:Moody’sRatings,companyfilings

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

Leaseportfoliosaresupportedbyusedvehicles’valuestability

%ofleasesinassetportfolios,asof30September2025

40%

37%

35%

30%

27%

25%

portfolio

23%

%ofleasesin

20%

16%

15%

10%

5%

0%

HondaFinanceGMFToyotaMotorCreditFordMotorCredit

Moody’sAnalytics'usedcarpriceindex(Index2010=100,seasonallyadjusted)

HistoricalForecast

300

Dec2021–Dec2023declineof15%

250

200

150

100

50

Dec-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Apr-21

Aug-21

Dec-21

Apr-22

Aug-22

Dec-22

Apr-23

Aug-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-24

Dec-24

Apr-25

Aug-25

Dec-25

Apr-26

Aug-26

Dec-26

Apr-27

0

1)Unlessotherwisementioned,thex-axislabelsincludethefirms'standaloneassessmentsSources:Moody’sRatings.companyfilings,Moody’sAnalytics

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

Thankyou

MatthiasHellstern

MD-CorporateFinance

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Matthias.Hellstern@

+496970730745

ReneLipsch

SeniorVicePresident,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Renier.Lipsch@

+1(212)553-1908

EricGreaser

VP-SeniorAnalyst,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Eric.Greaser@

+1(212)553-6031

MatthiasHeck

VP-SrCreditOfficer,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Matthias.Heck@

+496970730720

GötzGrossman

VP-SeniorAnalyst,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Goetz.Grossmann@

+49(697)073-0728

CindyYang

VP-SeniorAnalyst,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

liu.yang@

+86(138)104-48986

RomanSchorr

VP-SeniorAnalyst,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Roman.Schorr@

+81(354)084-154

MoritzMelsbach

VP-SeniorAnalyst,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Matthias.Heck@

+49(697)073-0720

InnaBodeck

VP-SrCreditOfficer

FinancialInstitutions,Moody’sRatings

inna.bodeck@

+1(347)205-0528

MichaelBrisson

HeadofUSAutosEconomicsMoody’s

michael.brisson@

+1(610)235-5267

GerwinHo

VP-SrCreditOfficer,

CorporateFinance,Moody’sRatings

Gerwin.Ho@

+8523758-1566

Appendix

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

(onoutlookorrating)

Lastratingactionwasan

RatingMap:GlobalAutomobileManufacturersLastratingactionwasnegative

affirmationwithoutlook

Toyota

A1-Stable

A1

unchanged

Mercedes-Benz

A2-Stable

BMW

A2

A3

A2-Stable

Kia

A3-Stable

HyundaiMotor

A3-Stable

HondaMotor

A3-Stable

Baa1

VolkswagenBaa1-Stable

GeneralMotors

Baa2-Stable

Stellantis

Baa2

Baa2-Negative

Tesla

Baa3

Baa3-Stable

TataMotors

Ba1-Negative

Renault

Ba1-Positive

JLR

Ba1-Negative

Geely

Ba1-Stable

VolvoCars

Ba1-Negative

Ford

Ba1

Ba1–Stable

Ba2

NissanMotorBa2-Negative

Ba3

B1

B2

B3

AstonMartin

Caa1

Caa1-Stable

Caa2

Note:Ratingsasof09December2025

Ratingsasof3November2025

Source:Moody’sRatings18

RatingMap:EuropeanAutomotiveSuppliers

OUTLOOK:●Negative●Stable●Positive●RURUp●RURDown

INVESTMENTGRADE

A1

●

●

●

Michelin

Autoliv

Continental

●Aptiv

A2

A3

Baa1

Baa2

Baa3

SPECULATIVEGRADE

Ba1

●

Hella

●Schaeffler

●Cyprium

●Valeo

Ba2

●

GarrettMotion

●Gestamp

●MAHLE

●ZFFriedrichshafen

Ba3

●

Benteler

●FORVIA

B1

●

Goodyear

B2

●

AdlerPelzer

●Kongsberg

●Pasubio

B3

●

GrupoAntolin

Caa1

Caa2

Asof09December2025

Source:Moody’sRatings

GlobalAutosMarketUpdate2026

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