波士顿咨询（BCG）-比尔盖茨基金会：全球厕所革命可行性战略研究

Reinvented

Toilet:

Early

Adopter

CompendiumAs

developed

by

the

Boston

Consulting

Group

for

the

Bill

and

Melinda

Gates

FoundationEarly

adopters1AgendaIntroduction

and

exemplars

Framework

for

prioritizationEA

launchstrategySegment

deep

divesEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptxBackground

on

thisreport2Between

2017-18,

the

Boston

Consulting

Group

(BCG)

undertook

a

series

ofstudies

to

investigate

the

potential

market

size

for

the

Reinvented

Toilet

andpotential

market

entry

strategies

for

this

set

of

novel

sanitation

solutions.

This

workwas

commissioned

by

the

Sanitation

Technology

Platform

(STeP)

and

funded

bythe

Bill

and

Melinda

Gates

Foundation,

which

launched

the

Reinvent

the

Toilet

Challenge

(RTTC)

in

2011.The

following

report

profiles

8

potential

early

adopter

segments

for

the

ReinventedToilet:

U.S.

Military,

Refugees,

Tourism

Sites

in

China

and

India;

Hospitals

inIndia;Eager

Municipalities

in

China;

Green

Buildings;

Trains

in

India;

U.S.

National

Parks.Admittedly,

some

ofthese

early

adopter

segments

(e.g.,

U.S.Military,

U.S.

NationalParks)

do

not

target

the

populations

for

which

the

RTTC

was

designed

–

those

4.5billion

people

in

the

world

living

without

access

to

safely

managed

sanitation.However,

many

of

these

early

adopter

segments

hold

potential

to

‘unlock’

these‘global

access’

markets,

such

as

by

demonstrating

the

transformative

power

ofthese

technologies,

by

driving

down

costs,

by

generating

insights

to

refine

productdesign

for

mass

market

appeal,

etc.It

is

this

‘unlock’

potential

that

proves

critical

in

early

adopter

segments,wherever

they

might

happen

to

be

in

the

world.

This

report

explores

where

thathighestunlockpotential

for

the

ReinventedToilet

mightreside,and

how

those

earlyadopter

segments

might

beleveraged

to

expand

into

other

‘globalaccess’

markets,specifically

those

serving

populations

with

limited

or

no

access

to

safely

managedsanitation.Consumer

adoption

of

new

products

typically

follows

S-curve

pathInnovatorsEarly

AdoptersEarly

MajorityRelative

saturationEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx3Late

MajorityLaggardsEarly

adopters

represent

the

secondphase

of

product

adoption...and

are

crucial

for

developingunderstanding

of

product

potentialand

building

momentumDemonstrate

proof

of

concept

and

designfor

manufacturing,

supply-chain

set-upProvide

feedback

onearly

model—"betatest"—and

learnings

onimplementationAct

as

"product

evangelicals"

and

opinionleadersGenerate

aspiration

for

product

as

visibletrendsettersTime

PeriodSource:

BCG

framing

based

on

"Diffusion

of

Innovations"

by

Everett

RogersProvides

additional

opportunities

for

iterative,

openfeedback

loop–

Time

to

incorporate

learnings

before

mass

launchHowever,

longer

lead

time

to

reach

scale

and

servecore

areas

ofneedOpportunity

to

achieve

scale

more

quickly–

Drives

both

higher

cost

efficiency

from

thebeginning

and

facilitates

reaching

core

areas

ofneedfasterHowever,will

need

a

solid

partner

willing

to

invest

atrisk

ahead

of

demandLaunch

with

early

adopter

segment(s),then

broaden

scope

to

mass

marketCore

market

need

exists,

but

requires

influence

tomotivate

switch;

begin

with

niche

segments

togenerate

momentum

and

proof

points

to

expand

intothecoreDirectly

enter

mass

market,

leveragingpockets

of

early

adopters

in

the

coreTime

to

enter

the

core

is

now:

core

is

ready,

excited

forproduct

and

sanitation

ecosystem

supports

the

switch;decision-making

taking

place

requires

immediateaction

to

avoid

missing

out

on

opportunityEarly

adopterscan

be

thought

of

both

as

distinct

segments

and

subsets

ofcoremarket,

driving

two

dominant

strategies12When

to

use?Key

considerationsEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx4Meal

replacement

beverage

tofill

the

void

of

cheap,

healthyalternatives

to

costly

food

prepFirst

was

created

by

andlaunched

for

"techies"Product

has

expandedwithdifferent

flavors

and

forms(powderto

liquid)

and

is

shelfstable,

broadening

massmarket

appeal

to

become

themost

popular

beverageonAMZN;

further

investigatingtherapeutic

use

cases1Technology

to

create

drinkingwater

from

humidity

in

the

air,addressing

Israel's

severedroughtsProduct

first

developed

withthe

Israeli

Defense

Force

inmind,

to

reduce

burden

ofcarrying

water

in

the

fieldHave

broadened

to

civilianproducts

(smaller

size,

waterATM),

including

in

developingmarkets

e.g.

signed

MOUinHyderabad,

India2Freestanding

mobile

minirefrigeratorMass

adoption

was

ultimategoal;

identified

strategic

in

torural

market

working

with

theIndian

postal

service

totarget

rural

communitiesHired

local

entrepreneursassales

reps;

facilitated

loans

&financing

and

sold

15,000units

in

first

year

(2011)3

andnow

have

variety

of

chotukooltypes

(office,

personal,

party)Microgrid

solution

for

"off-the-grid"/"near-grid"

areasDeep

market

due

diligence

toidentify

high

unmet

needareas

and

targeted

localcommunity

leaders

to

act

asearly

adopters

and

installgridon

their

land,

offering

visibilityand

securityHave

constructed

40

micro-grids

(highest

of

any

firm

inAfrica)

serving

thousands

ofcustomersin

7

countries4Strategic

choice

to

target

early

adopter

segments

or

pockets

of

early

adopters

inmass

marketearly

adopter

segment,

then

broadenscope

to

mass1.

Website/employee

information

2.

Website

3.

INSEAD

case

study

4.

PowerGen

websitemarket,

leveraging

pockets

of

earlyadopters

in

core

mass

market1

Strategy

1:

Develop

product

for

an

2

Strategy

2:

Directly

enter

massEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx5AgendaEarly

adopters6Introduction

and

exemplars

Framework

for

prioritizationEA

launchstrategySegment

deep

divesMature

and

emerging

economies

present

varied

shape

of

Reinvented

Toilet

(RT)opportunity

across

the

globe+3.2

BEmerging

economies

withhighRT

need

andset

for

improvement

NOWMature

economies

buildingto

an

inflection+1.7

B+0.5BEmerging

economies

withhigh

RT

need

butrequires

effort

to

unlockEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx7Source:

BCG

analysisEarly

adopter

strategy:

Leveragestrategy

1,

building

momentumwith

early

adopter

segments

suchas

pockets

of

remaining

need

(e.g.remote,

current

solutions

failing)and

eager

innovators,

to

unlockmass

opportunityEarly

adopter

strategy:

Leveragestrategy

2,

directly

entering

massmarket

with

one

product,withfocus

on

countries

activelypursuing

sanitation

programs,seeking

support

from

earlychampionsEarly

adopter

strategy:

Leveragestrategy

1,

either

with

blue/greenmarkets

serving

as

"early

adopters"or

directly

entering

yellow

markets,targeting

opportunities

wheregovernment

or

aid

organizationsupport

is

likelyMature

economiesbuilding

to

an

inflectionMarket

vision:

Become

analternative

to

sewer

in

thedeveloped

worldHigh

RT

need

and

setfor

improvement

nowMarket

vision:

Attain

profitablemass

market

product

distribution

–in

a

compressed

time

frameHigh

RT

need,

butrequires

effort

to

unlockMarket

vision:

Attain

profitablemass

market

product

distribution

–over

a

longer

time

horizonDifferent

early

adopter

paths

can

guide

Corporate

Partner

(CP)

vision

acrossgeographic

segmentationsPotential

"quick

win"

for

visibility:

Emergency

situationsEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx8Short-list

of

early

adopters

considered

in

geographic

framework

and

deep

diveselectionsSegments

with

current

burningplatform

and

clear

procurementpath,

high

visibility/potential

todriveaspiration

and

ability

to

be

atrendsetter

and

unlock

bothmature/developing

marketsBlue:

Mature

economiesbuilding

to

an

inflectionMilitary

remote

sitesGreen

buildings

(commercial

&

mixed)National

and

state

parksGreen

consumersRV

parksRoadside

reststopsSegments

with

high

willingness

totake

the

plunge,

current

burningplatform

and

clear

procurementpath,

high

visibility/potential

todriveaspiration

and

ability

to

influencebroader

mass

marketGreen:

High

RT

need

and

set

forimprovement

nowTourism/religious

sitesEager

or

high-profile

municipalitiesRural

hospitalsTrainsRural

schoolsYellow:

High

RT

need,

butrequires

effort

to

unlockRefugeesBeta

test

segments

with

clearpotential

for

government/aidorganization

support,

to

capturelearnings

for

broad

rolloutContainer-based

sanitation=

indicates

segment

selected

for

deep

diveGeographic

market

Segment Overarching

criteriaEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx9Early

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx10Summary:

Unlock

potential

across

short-listed

segments

include:Geo

unlockSegment

unlockRationaleMilitaryRural

marketsPotential

to

generate

key

learnings

about

getting

product

to

remote

sitesGreen

buildingsGreen

consumersNewconstructionLikely

to

generate

trickle

down

to

green

consumersPotential

to

more

broadly

influence

other

builders

beyond

currently

green-focused

onesNational

ParksRural

marketsPotential

to

generate

key

learnings

about

getting

product

to

remote

sitesGreen

consumersGreen

developers

Will

be

challenging

for

individual

consumers

to

exertsame

level

of

influence,

exceptperhaps

with

those

already

in

the

greenspaceRV

parksTiny

homes/greenconsumersMay

generate

upstream

interest

with

those

currently

in

green

homes/RV

situationsRoadside

reststopsAdjacent

segments(e.g.

RV

park)

Demonstration

of

proof

of

concept

could

lead

to

nearby

sites'adoption,

e.g.

RV

parksor

perhaps

other

parks/public

sitesTourist/religious

sitesPublic

sitesLikely

to

generate

key

learnings

for

servinghigh-traffic,

public

areas

(e.g.

deal

withchallenges

of

overuse,

potential

vandalism,

etc.)Eager

municipalitiesHigh

mass

marketpotential

Adoption

by

a

municipality

(for

commercial

areas,

in

high

profile

locations)willincrease

exposure

and

drive

broader

movement

to

adoptRural

hospitalsHigh

mass

marketpotential

Product

placement

in

hospitals

likely

to

inspire

confidence

in

RT,

allowingfor

broaderadoption;

further,

could

providelearnings

of

rural

procurement/product

deliveryRural

schoolsBroader

rural

marketadoption

Learnings

could

be

applied

to

schools

in

rural

yellow

areas,

but

also

more

broadly

torural

areas

(e.g.

procurement

relationships,

tackling

supply

chain

challenges)TrainsDemonstration

of

value

prop

could

allow

for

broadening

to

trains

in

"blue

markets"

tooRefugeesPublic

sites

Likely

to

generate

key

learnings

for

servinghigh-traffic,

public

areas

(e.g.

deal

withchallenges

of

overuse,

potential

vandalism,

etc.)Container-basedsanitationIndividual

consumercoreCould

be

an

early

in

to

core

high-need

segment;

however,

must

recognize

this

is

acurrent

niche

product/would

be

disrupting

this

still

fringe

spaceBackupEarlyAdopterCompendium

vUploaded.pptx11Initial

consideration

set

to

frame

early

adopter

segmentation

and

strategy

(I/II)CategoryEarly

adopter

segmentsRationaleTimingAspirationVisibilityValue

chainMatureeconomiesbuilding

toinflectionMilitary

remote

sitesClear

procurement

path,

potential

to

growGreen

buildings(commercial

&

mixed)Highly

visible;

precedent

for

adoption;

potentialto

generate

broader

product

aspirationNational

and

state

parksRemaining

area

of

need;

clear

product

applicationGreen

consumersHigh

risk

tolerance/innovatorsin

sanitationRV

parksClear

area

of

need;

test-drive

"rural"

supply

chainRoadside

reststopsClear

area

of

need;

test-drive

"rural"

supply

chainHigh

RT

needand

setforimprovementnowTourism/religious

sitesClear

procurement

path/area

of

focus

for

China'stoilet

revolution

and

Swachh

Bharat

campaignEager

ruralmunicipalitiesGovernmentt

procurement;

area

of

focus

forChina's

toilet

revolution

campaignSchoolsStrong

procurement

opportunities

withgovernments,

NGOs;

highlyvisiblesegment/marketing

potentialRural

hospitalsStrong

potential

aid

funding/governmentprocurement

opportunity;likely

to

generateaspiration/belief

in

productTrainsPotential

for

compelling

financial

value

propPublic

housingClear

govt

procurement

path;

area

of

focus

for

India'sSwachh

Bharat

missionInformal

settlementsHigh

area

of

need;

clear

product

applicationGreen

buildings

(esp.commercial)Strong

product

fit;

easier

to

enter

into

newconstructionCriteria

for

market

unlocksBackupInitial

consideration

set

to

frame

early

adopter

segmentation

and

strategy

(II/II)Criteria

for

market

unlocksCategoryEarly

adopter

segmentsRationaleTimingAspirationVisibilityValue

chainHigh

RT

needbut

requireseffort

tounlockSchoolsStrong

procurement

opportunities

w/govts,NGOs;highly

visible

segment/marketing

potentialPublic

toilets,

markets

&transport

hubsHigh

area

of

need;

clear

product

applicationContainer-basedsanitationTap

into

segment

of

people

already

open

to

innovatingin

sanitation"Quick

win"emergencyuse

casesRefugee

campsCurrent

area

of

need,

withsubstantial

supportNatural

disastersHigh

area

of

need;

clear

product

applicationDifficultto

predictBackupEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx12Initial

criteria

set

and

methodology"Unlock"

CriteriaScoringExplanationTiming"Burning

platform"

for

product

adoption,

often

due

to

government

campaigns

and/or

buyer

stated

interestNeed

for

product

is

current;

however,

no

factor

driving

why

adoption

must

happen

right

nowN/A;

all

potential

early

adopters

ready

for

product

nowAspirationEarly

adopter

segment's

perceived

innovativeness

driving

"cool"

factor,

or

represents

a

"feel-good"

product

applicationSegment

neither

detracts

from

nor

strongly

bolsters

product's

perceptionAssociation

of

product

withthis

segment

not

likely

to

positively

impact

perception;

may

slightly

detractVisibilitySegment

in

highly

public/trafficked

places

and/or

likely

to

generate

substantial

presscoverageSegment

located

in

medium

to

lower-trafficked

areas;

moderate

press

coverage

expectedSegment

not

highly

publicized

and/or

located

in

remote

areas

where

low

traffic

expectedValue

ChainProcurement

path/potential

buyer

is

clear

and

easily

accessible

at

the

current

timeProcurement

path/potential

buyer

identified,

but

some

roadblocks

may

be

anticipatedN/A;

any

segments

deemed

too

difficult

to

reach

not

a

candidate

for

early

adoptionCommercialPartner

FitN/ANotes

to

indicate

anywhere

CPs

have

expressed

interest/have

promising

leadsTechnologyPartner

FitN/ANotes

to

indicate

anywhere

technology

has

progressed

farther/higher

degree

of

readinessBackupEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx13AgendaEarly

adopters14Introduction

and

exemplars

Framework

for

prioritizationEA

launchstrategySegment

deep

divesConsequently,

need

to

seedearly

adopters

in

all

marketswhere

you

want

to

playStagger

within

early

adoptersegments,

first

starting

withthose

most

eager

and

tolerantof

being

"guinea

pig"Need

someone

toplayaggregator

role

acrosssegments,

tocross-subsidizeproduct

developmentUnlock

betweengeographic

markets

likelyto

take

too

longGeographic

"trickle

down"more

a

question

of

years,oreven

decade(s)Willingness

to

try

now

andaccept

iteration

variesbyearly

adopter

segmentsIn

some

segments,

earlychallenges

may

precludebroader

adoption

later

onNecessary

to

aggregatedemand

across

markets

toensure

attractivenessRT

unlikely

to

initially

generateenough

scale

to

be

financiallysustainableThree

key

learnings

guide

early

adopter

launch

strategyEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx15Focusing

efforts

on

high

potential

deals

and

phasing

within

early

adopters

haspotential

to

quickly

drive

broader

unlockPhase

3early

adoptersPhase

1early

adoptersPhase

2early

adoptersUnlock

additionalsegmentsandgeographiesto

reach

individualconsumer

coreExpand

to

ForwardOperating

Bases(FOBs)Green

buildings(expand

withdevelopers)Expand

tootherpublic

sites

in

India(ex.

school)Further

expansion

totrains;

potentiallygrowing

into

stationsGrow

number

ofpublic

sites

with

RTChina

tourism

sitesMilitary

housingHospitals

in

IndiaTrains

(where

therehas

been

interest)Expand

to

publicsites

more

broadlyExpand

to

increasednumberofdevelopmentsEager

municipalitiesFurther

expansion

toother

municipalitiesExpand

to

otherglobal

access

sites(ex.

schools)Refugee

campsExpand

to

increasednumber

of

campsEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx16Military

housingWork

withlarge-scale developer

(e.g.

Corvias)

to install

in

homes

on

basesChina/India

govtsponsored

procurementWork

with

government

to introduce

RT

in

tourism

site revamp

in

ChinaWork

on

SwachhBharat related

procurement,

e.g. hospitals,

schools

(TBD)Refugee

campsWork

with

UNHCR

team

to introduce

RT

in

established Zaatari

campWork

with

UNHCR

to launch

inhighunmet-need camp

for

Rohingya refugees

in

BangladeshThree

key

opportunities

to

explore

with

potential

partnersEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx17Several

key

criteria

evaluated

to

arrive

at

prioritized

listIdentified

partyof

interestThere

is

already

a

RT

champion,

with

decision

making

power,

who

hasexpressed

interest

in

piloting

RTNo

additional

proofpointneeded

tobewillingtopilot

RTWilling

to

be

a

first-mover

and

try

RT

now,

with

the

information

currentlyknown/minor

clarification

questionsWillingness

toaccept

failureInitial

product

failure

will

not

preclude

later

usage;

willing

to

accept

risks

withinitial

implementation

and

iterate

on

productAs

compared

to

a

user

segment

where

this

could

sour

taste

of

the

product

fordistribution

later

onQuick

turnaround

for

RTto

get

in

the

fieldSegment

has

an

urgent

need

driving

RT

to

be

deployed

now,

and/or

there

is

aclear

path

for

RT's

introduction

avoiding

a

lengthy

procurement

cycleActivities

needing

tosupport

overlap

with

otherkey

segmentsSegment

is

a

“two

birds,

one

stone”

strategyE.g.

establish

distribution

model

in

key

market,

create

point

of

contact

inimportant

market

where

potential

Commercial

Partners

need

data

beforeengaging,

technology

modifications

support

otherusagesDegree

of

importance12345Early

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx18BackupSeveral

key

success

factors

across

segments

for

"new"

productlaunch,particularly

in

"green"

and

"yellow"

marketsProduct

usage

depends

oneducating

users

on

both

the“why”

and

“how”

of

the

productNot

just

how

to

use

it,

butwhy

should

someone

switchfrom

Open

Defecation

tothis?Kiosks

showed

bacteria

in

untreated

water

undera

microscope

to

help

women

realize

this

washarming

them

and

their

familiesSuccessful

uptake

requiresproduct

is

suited

to

localcultural

preferencesLack

of

cultural

fit

mostcommon

reason

productswill

go

unused

and

failCommunal

toilets

introduced

in

Jordan

wentunused

while

refugees

made

individual

makeshiftones

because

of

preference

for

private

facilitiesGenerating

aspiration

forproductis

necessaryIt

is

not

enough

that

there

isan

unmet

need—willnotguarantee

uptakeDry

toilets

were

turned

down

in

Bolivia,

a

water-scarce

area

lacking

sanitation—as

peoplewanted

the

"real"

flush

toilets…

but

aspiration

is

verysegment/geography

specificWestern

products

can

benefit

from

"halo"

effect,

butit's

not

necessarily

impactfulor

sufficient;

scale/prestigedo

not

always

transferCurrently

advertising

on

Indian

billboards“I’m

not

sure

that

you

can

get

to

a

scale

withRTthat

is

so

loud

and

successful

in

the

Westernmarket

that

it's

flashy

enough

to

make

an

impact

in

the

developing

world"—BCG

Consumer

Durables

expertFor

a

product

to

be

credible,pilots

alone

may

not

suffice—will

benefit

from

credibleendorsementsDon’t

be

afraid

to

leveragepartners’

brand

and/or

seekout

NGO

partnerships

tobolster

the

product'scredibilityPartnership

with

US

Agency

for

InternationalDevelopment

credited

with

helping

the

productgain

initial

recognition"Proof

of

concept

isn’t

just

a

pilot;

it’s

alsohaving

credible

people

believe

in

it"–CEO

WaterHealthExampleEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx19AgendaEarly

adopters20Introduction

and

exemplars

Framework

for

prioritizationEA

launchstrategySegment

deep

divesMilitaryEarly

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptx21Early

Adopter

Compendium

vUploaded.pptxU.S.MilitaryKey

considerations:Must

be

able

towithstand

extremeweather

conditionsMust

develop

supplychain

topotentiallyservice

remote

areasMilitary

procurementapt

to

changebetweenadministrationsMust

provide

pleasantuser

experience—keydecision

criteria

formilitary

homesprocurementCurrent

administration

is

seeking

to

privatizeservice

provision

where

possible—therefore,depending

on

specific

opportunity

may

beable

to

avoid

an

otherwise

potentiallylengthy

competitive

bid/request

forproposal

(RFP)

process.

Further,

themilitary

is

traditionally

willing

to

pay

a

pricepremium

for

the

best

possible

product—functionality

and

user

experience

is

key—butimportant

to

demonstrate

the

cost

efficiencyof

conservation

aspects

of

toiletUnder

past

administration

army

piloted"Net

Zero"

conservation

initiatives22Military

sustainabilityinitiatives

and

baselocations

necessitatewater,

waste

as

focus—many

RT

use

cases,including

for

homesRT

could

help

address

army'sdesire

to

innovate

to

tacklewater

scarcity,

particularly

inhard-to-reach

areas,

inparallel

developing

credibilitywith

a

segment

that

hasproven

its

early

adopterpotential

and

has

potential

toinfluence

broader

policy

shiftsSource:

Expert

interviews,Army

Net

Zero

initiative

reportSegment

deep

dive:

US

MilitaryUnlock

PotentialOther

US

military

segments: FOBs,

ranges,proving grounds,

navalshipsOther

commercial

developer segments

closer

to

core: same

developermayhave other

holdingssuch

as

student housing,

apartments,Individual

consumers:

RT exposure

to

first-time homeowners

may

encourage them

to

adopt

RT

after

militaryFEMA/disaster

relief:

Initial

in with

DoD

could

allow

to expand

to

other

government departmentsSegment

less

pricesensitive

andmorefocused

on

performanceSegment

overviewSeveral

potential

RTmilitary

applications:Housing

(120k+homes

on

base)Forward

Operating