房地产 -2025年第四季度墨尔本工业与物流数据 Melbourne Industrial and Logistics Figures Q4 2025

CBRE

FIGURESIINDUSTRIAL&LOGISTIcslQ42025

Melbourne

2H25MelbourneIndustrialvacancy

vc.190,000sqmc.150,000sqm5.9%

4Q25GrossTake-up4Q25supplycompletionsAveragesuperprimeMidpointyield

Note:Arrowsindicatechangefrompreviousquarter.

keypoints

--on-

astenantenquiryremainedsubdued.

-

majorityofcompletionstakingplaceinMelbourne'swest.Asignificantshareoftheforwardpipelineisnotyetunderconstruction,elevatinguncertaintyaroundstartdatesand

completiontiming.

-

declineanddecreasedby0.7%overthequarter.

-

theInnerandNorthprecincts.Elsewhere,feasibilityconstraintscontinuetoweighonpricing.

-

valuedatoraboveAUD5million.

-

source:CBREResearch

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|4Q25

2CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Demand

Leasingmoderatesasoccupiersprioritiserenewals

Grosstakeupin4Q25totalledc.190,000sqm,representingamoderatedeclinefromthepriorquarter.Leasingmomentumremainsmeasured,withoccupiersincreasinglyfavoringleaserenewalsovernewcommitments,with2025renewalvolumesequatingtoroughlythreetimesthoserecordedin2024.Amaterialvolumeoffloorspaceiscurrentlyinlate-stagenegotiationandisexpectedtosupport

quarterlytake-upoverthecomingperiods.

AcrossMelbourne'sprecincts,activetenantenquiryremainssubdued,withonlyalimitednumberoflargeoccupierbriefs(>10,000sqm)presentlyinthemarket.

Notabletransactionsin4Q25included:

Apre-leasebycostwayinthewest(c.25,000sqm).

AleasebyNewAiminthewest(c.25,000sqm).

ApreleasebyyidaFoodsinthesouthEast(c.14,000sqm).

Take-upactivityconcentratedinthewest

Melbourne'swestaccountedfor~60%ofquarterlygrosstakeup,followedbythesouthEastat26%.Mostleasingactivityinthewestwasconcentratedinexistingstock.Demandforspeculativeproductwasalsostrongthisquarter,comprising~37%oftotaltake-up.

FIGURE1:MelbourneTakeUp4Q25byIndustrysector(TOP3sectorsbyfloorspace)

mmwestmnsouthEastmmNorthmmEastmnInner--10-yearAverage

FIGURE3:MelbourneQuarterlyGrossTake-up,1Q23-4Q25

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25

QuarterlyTake-upvolume5-yearaverage

source:CBREResearch

*Tonote:Reflectstransactions>5,000sqm.source:CBREResearch

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|4Q25

3CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

supply

Feasibilitypressurestodefernon-commencedprojects

supplycompletionsin4Q25totalledapproximately148,000sqm,whichis26%ofthecy2025supplytotal.Around13%ofthecy2026supplytotalisexpectedtobedeliverednextquarter.Total

completionsforcy2025areprojectedtoreacharound690,000sqm,slightlyabovethe10-yearhistoricalaverage.

Notablecompletionsin4Q25Included:

warehouse3,427451somervilleRoad,Tottenham(c.22,000sqm)

Lot2,100MissensRoad,cranbournewest(c.21,000sqm)

warehouse5c,590&620westernportHighway,cranbournewest(c.11,000sqm)

Melbourne'sforwardsupplypipelineisforecasttoremainmoderatelybelowthe10-yearlong-runaverageoverthenextfouryears.Asignificantshareofdevelopmentapprovedand

developmentappliedprojectsisexpectedtobedelayedorfacepotentialcancellationdueto

feasibilityconstraints.Indicatively,economicrents(cost-coveringrents)exceedaveragefacerentsby47%inthewestand⃞25%intheNorth,underscoringthefeasibilitygapfornewproduct.Asaresult,asubduedsupplyenvironmentisanticipatedoverthenext18-24months,untilfacerents

adjusttosupportmoreviabledevelopmentconditions.

Approximately90,000sqmofsupplycompletionsareexpectedacrossMelbournein1Q26.keyprojectsanticipatedtoreachpracticalcompletioninclude:

warehouse2&3,115southGippslandHighway,Dandenongsouth(c.14,000sqm)

warehouse4A,60GreenhillsRoad,pakenham(c.10,000sqm)

2Batterycourt,cranbournewest(c.10,000sqm)

pre-commitmentactivityremainslowamidstrisingvacancy

Theprecommitmentrateforprojectscurrentlyunderconstructionandscheduledfordeliveryin

Cy2026-2027standsatapproximately28%.Thisincludesthemajorpre-commitmentfromAmazon's209,000sqmfulfilmentcentreinMelbourne'SNorth.Excludingthisproject,pre-commitmentactivityremainssubdued,albeitconstructionstartshavealsosignificantlyslowedinrecentquarters.

FIGURE4:MelbourneDevelopmentsupplypipeline20102028F

completeunderconstruction

mnDAApprovedDevelopmentApplicationstage

—-Historic10-yearAverage

Tonote:Reflectsnewprojects>5,000sqm.

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE5:Developmentsupply2026F-2028FFloorspaceshare,byprecinct

Tonote:Reflectsnewprojects5,000sqm.source:CBREResearch

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|4Q25

4CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

LeasingMarket

Facerentsendtheyearflatasenquirysoftens

Averagenetfacerentsforsuperprimeandprimeassetswerestablein4Q25.secondaryassetsrecordedmodestgrowthof2.4%,drivenexclusivelybygainsinthesouthEast

precinct.

superprimeeffectiverentsdeclined0.7%quarter-on-quarterin4Q25,takingthe

year-on-yearoutcometo-4.2%.Thecontractionineffectiverentsreflectsrising

incentives.whilelandsupplyconstraintspersistacrossMelbourne,landlordsinselect

precinctshaverespondedmoreaggressivelytopreserveoccupancyamidweaker

enquiry.Thishasoccurredagainstthebackdropofacontinuedriseinindustrialvacancynowthehighestnationallywhichisweighingonlandlordpricingpower.

onanannualbasis,facerentalgrowthacrossMelbourneaveraged1.6%forsuperprime,2.7%forprime,and4.9%forsecondarygradeassets.Lookingahead,superprimerentalgrowthisexpectedtooutperformoverthemediumterm,consistentwithhistorical

trends.whilstvacanciesinspeculativelybuiltstockareimpactingcurrentleasingrates,asthefuturepipelinecontinuestoshrink,superprimestockislikelytoregainleasing

momentum,albeitlaterthanexpected.

IncentivesexpandacrossselectMelbourneprecincts.

IncentivesincreasedacrosssouthEast,East,andwestprecinctsin4Q25.Notably,superprime(west)andprime(southEast)bothroseby+250bpsquarter-on-quarter.

incentivesinmostprecinctsareexpectedtohavenowreached/closetoreachingtheir

cyclicalpeaks.withsignificantmarketbifurcationalreadyevident,manylandlordshavefront-loadedincentivestosecureshort-termleasingoutcomesamidsubduedenquiry.AStheforwardsupplypipelinecontinuestocontract,incentivesareexpectedtotrendlowertowardslate-2026andinto2027.

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

FIGURE6:MelbourneAverageNetFaceRentGrowthyear-on-yearbyGrade

superprimeprimesecondary

Q42023Q42024Q42025

FIGURE7:MelbournesuperprimeNetFaceRentsbyprecinctandyear

Inner*EastsouthEastNorthwest

Note:RentsintheInnermarketcorrespondtoprimegradeassets.source:CBREResearch

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|4Q25

5CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

Landvalues

Landvaluesmixedasfeasibilitypressurcspersist

Theaveragevalueforsmallindustriallots(0.25ha)acrossMelbourneheldflatoverthe

quarter.Incontrast,landvaluesfor1.6halotsincreasedby3.3%overthequarter,bringingtheannualgrowthto1.9%,LandvaluesexperiencedmoderateappreciationintheNorth

andInnerprecinctsthisquarter,drivenbyanuptickindealevidenceparticularlyamongsmallerlots,withlocalprivatedevelopersrepresentingthemostactivesub-setofthe

market,

LandvaluedepreciationpersistedinthesouthEastandEast,wheresmalllotsdeclined

1.3%q-o-qand1.0%q-o-q,respectively.Theseprecinctsfaceheightenedpressure,with

somelandownersacceleratingdisposalsandshowinggreaterpriceflexibilityamidshiftingvacancyandleasingrates.

Beyondthis,wecontinuetoobservemultiplekeythemesthatareinfluencinglandvaluesacrossMelbourne:

Themostsignificantfactoristheongoingeconomicheadwindsfacingdevelopmentgroups.Elevateddebtcostshaveraisedfeasibilityconcerns,leadingtoincreased

cautionamongdevelopersandinvestors.CBREResearchestimatesthateconomic

rentsexceedcurrentmarketrentsby47%inMelbourne'swestand25%intheNorth.whilethishasdampenedactivityamongdevelopersandinvestors,owner-occupiersremainactiveinthemarket.

Elevatedconstructioncostscontinuetoexertdownwardpressureonlandvalues.

Althoughsomecostcomponentshaveeasedfromthepeaksof20212022,highpricesforcementandsteel,drivenbyelevatedenergycosts,remainachallengeforindustrialdevelopers.

Despitetheseheadwinds,pricinginseveralprecinctsisbeingsupportedbyconsistentowner-occupierdemandandnon-traditionalindustrialbuyers,whoarelesssensitivetodevelopmentfeasibilityconstraintsandcanunderwriteacquisitionsonoperationalorstrategicgrounds.

Q42024Q42025

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE9:AverageLandvalues(1.6halots),byprecinctandyear.

wQ42024Q42025

source:CBREResearch

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|4Q25

6CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

InvestmentMarket

smallertransactionsunderpinquarterlyvolumes

Investmentsalevolumesin4Q25totalledapproximatelyAUD339million,representingaslight

increasefrom3Q25.ActivityremainssubduedacrossMelbourne,withtheaveragetransaction

sizeatapproximatelyAUD26million,moderatelybelowoftheaveragerecordedIncy2024.Totaltransactionactivityforcy2025endedatapproximatelyAUD1.5billion.whilstthisissignificantlybelowthe10yearaverage,itremainsconsistentwiththelevelsseenincy2022andcy2023,asinvestmentsentimenthasreturnedtonormalisedlevels.

Investmentvolumesareexpectedtoremainwellbelowhistoricallevels.ThisismainlyduetotheimplementationoftheabsenteeownersurchargeandelevatedlandtaxratesacrossMelbourne.whileindustrialfundamentalsareanticipatedtoimproveassupplymoderatespost-2026,

uncertaintysurroundingthefutureofMelbourne'staxregimepresentsakeyheadwind.

Melbourneyieldsarealsobeingimpactedbytaxationpolicy,withtheyieldspreadbetween

MelbourneandotherEasternseaboardcitieswidening.yieldsacrossallassetgradesremainedstablein4Q25.currentmidpointyieldsarerecordedat5.89%forsuperprime,6.19%forprime,and6.79%forsecondarygradeassets.yieldsareexpectedtoremainstableforthefirsthalfof2026,withexpectationsofrisinginterestratesdampeningyieldcompressionforecasts.

FIGURE10:AveragecurrentyieldsandyieldMovementsbyGrade.

FIGURE11:MelbourneIndustrialInvestmentsales(greaterthanAUD5million)

salesvolume10-yearaverageNumberofDeals(RHS)

Tonote:doesnotincludeland/developmentsales.

source:RCA,CBREResearch

FIGURES|Industrial&Logistics|4Q25

7CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

FIGURE12:superprimeIncentives,byprecinctandyear

Inner*EastsouthEastNorthwest

Q42023Q42024Q42025

Note:IncentivesintheInnermarketcorrespondtoprimevalues.

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE13:MelbournesuperprimeoutgoingpercentageIncreasefromBaseperiod(Q32021)byprecinct

EastsouthEastNorthwest

Q42022Q42023Q42024Q42025

source:CBREResearch

FIGURE14:MelbournesuperprimeNetEffectiveRentsbyprecinct

Inner*EastNorthsouthEastwest

Note:Neteffectivere