房地产 -2025年第四季度法国投资数据 France Investment Figures Q4 2025

CBRE

FIGUREslINVESTMENTFRANCEIQ42025

Ayearofupsanddowns

Retail

office

Note:cumulativevolumesinvestedsincethebeginningoftheyear.Thearrowindicatesannualchanges.

volumessavedbyafewlargetransactions

Although2025hadstartedwell,withanencouragingQ1,themomentumunfortunatelydidnothold

overthesubsequenttwoquarters,primarilyhamperedbyanunstablepoliticalandinternationalenvironmentandinsufficientpriceadjustments·Despitetheslowdownafterthesummerbreak,volumesweresavedbyafewlargetransactionsandafairlygoodQ4.

whilevolumesa「erecoveringalittle(13.7bn,+8%),thenumberoftransactionshasonlymarginallychanged·Thereisadichotomywith,ononeside,amarketthatremainsverygranularwithasignificantshareofinvestmentsinthe50millionsegmentand,attheopposite,a>200millionsegmentshowingasignificantincrease·Averageunitamounts,whichareontherise,arecrystallizingarounda

flagshiptransactions:parisTrinity,thekeringportfolio,signature/solstys,Renaissance,these5transactionsalonerepresentingnearly20%ofthevolumesinvestedin2025·

whilebetterfluidityseemstobeconfirmed,therecoveryremainsgradual,timidanduneven·Indeed,comparedtothevariousquartersthathavepassedsincethebeginningof2023,Q4wasrelativelygood,butisneverthelessbelowthefive-yearaverageofQ4.Annualperformancealsoremainsbelow

averageofthelast5years·

4,25%

primeyield

office(Dec.2025)

FIGURE1:CREinvestmentinFrance

4,90%

primeyield

classALogistics(Dec.2025)

4,50%

primeyield

Retail(Dec2025)

source:CBREResearch/Immostat,Q42025

FIGURES|INVESTMENTFRANCE|Q42025

2CBRERESEARCH©2026CBRE,INC.

FIGURES|INVESTMENTFRANCE|Q42025

FIGURE4:comparativechangeinyields

5%

4%

4.90%

4.50%

4.25%

3.55%

3%

2%

-1%

13141516171819202122232425

pariscBDoffice---10y.GVTBond

LogisticsRetail(high-streetparis)

source:CBREResearch,BanquedeFrance,Q42025(endofDecember)

yieldshaveeasedslightlyin2025(exceptforI&L),followingtheriseinthe10y.GVTBondbutalsoduetoapersistentmisalignmentwithvalues:whilewehopedthatthepricingissuewouldbebehindusin2025,ithasstillnotbeenfullyresolved(andthisappliestoallassets).ACertainnumberofpropertiesarestilwithdrawnfromthemarketduetoalackofagreementbetweenbuyersandsellersonthevalues·

TheECBKeptitskeyinterestratesstableinQ4,acknowledgingthatinflationwasclosetoitstargetdespitelimitedeconomicgrowthintheEurozone.In2026,itisexpectedtofavourthestatusquoandthefinancialenvironmentmaynotallowforfurthercompressionofrealestateyields·Moreover,inthecomingmonths,theirevolutionwilldependlessonmonetarypoliciesthanonFrance'snationalcontextandtherelativelyrobustperformanceoftheEuropeaneconomy·

FrancehasasomewhatspecificstatusinEuropeduetoitspoliticalinstabilityandbudgetarydifficulties·ThefailureofthediscussionsontheFinanceLawhasledforasecondconsecutiveyeartotheadoptionofaspeciallaw:publicactionisunfoldingwithinadeterioratedframework·uncertaintyisbecominganinputparameterthatmustbecontendedwith,butultimately,growthprospectsareprovingtobebetterthanexpected·

Thecomingyearshouldbemarkedbylessfinancialvolatility·The10y.GVTBondseemstobestabilisingataround3.50%andtheprospectofa4%yieldseemstobereceding·whiletheriskpremiumisfurtherreducedcomparedtothe10y.GVTBond(<70bpsfortheprimeoffice),itisrebuildingcomparedtothe5-yearswap·

Theimprovementinfinancialconditionsisapositivepoint:competitionbetweenlendersisincreasingandmarginsarecompressing·Banks,whicharelessfocusedonrefinancing,areexpectedtograduallyincreasetheiroriginationactivity·Thefinancingwillhavebecomeaccretiveagain·Althoughnotadriverof「ecoveryontheirown,thefinancialconditionsarelessrestrictive·2026willstillbeamarketofadaptation,whichwillgradually

adjustandreorganise·

contacts

MarionvION-DURY

AssociateDirectorResearchTel.:+33(0)153642275

marion.viondury@cbre.fr

sabineECHALIER

DirectorMarketResearchTel:+33(0)153643704sabine.echalier@cbre.fr

pierre-EdouardBOUDOTExecutiveDirector

HeadofResearch

Tel:+33(0)153643686pe.boudot@cbre.fr

NicolasvERDILLON

ManagingDirector

Investmentproperties

Tel.:+33(o)153643081nicolas.verdilloncbre.fr

TasosvEZYRIDIS

ExecutiveDirector

HeadofResearch,uk&IandcontinentalEurope

tasos.vezyridis@cbre.com

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