2025年净零进展报告-

Scaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsand

Net-Zero

Progress

in2025W

H

IT

E

PA

P

E

RD

E

C

E

M

B

E

R

2

0

25WJR

LDE

CCNOMI

CF

ORUMIncollaboration

withAccentureImages:AdobeStock,UnsplashContentsForeword

3Executivesummary

41

Trendsand

progress

in

industrialtransformation51.1Theyear

in

review

61.2Stateofplay

ofthe

industrialtransition91.3Industrialtransitiondynamics

in

2025112

Enablingsystemsfor

industrialtransformation132.1Technology

landscape

isadvancing

but

uneven142.2Low-carbondemandis

growing

too

slowly152.3Policy

isfragmenting

172.4Infrastructure

isexpanding

butstrained192.5Capitalflowsare

resilient

butunevenly

distributed20Strategic

priorities

23Appendix24Contributors27Endnotes

29DisclaimerThisdocumentis

published

bytheWorld

Economic

Forumasacontributionto

a

project,

insight

area

or

interaction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedherein

are

a

resultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitated

andendorsedbytheWorld

Economic

Forumbutwhoseresultsdo

not

necessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorld

EconomicForum,nor

the

entirety

of

its

Members,Partnersorother

stakeholders.©2025World

Economic

Forum.All

rightsreserved.

No

part

of

this

publication

maybereproducedortransmitted

in

anyformorbyany

means,

including

photocopyingandrecording,or

by

any

informationstorage

and

retrieval

system.Scaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in

20252The

industrialtransition

hasentereditsdecisive

period.Acrosshard-to-abatesectors,thetechnologiesrequiredtocutemissionsare

proven.About

half

ofindustrialemissionscan

already

be

abatedwith

maturesolutions;the

restwilldepend

ondeeper

innovation,stronger

policyandenablinginfrastructure.Thetaskahead

is

rapidlyscalingsolutionsgloballyand

profitably,ensuringthe

path

to

netzerostrengthens

industrialcompetitiveness

andeconomicgrowth.ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin2025,developed

bytheWorld

Economic

Forum

incollaborationwithAccenture,capturesthis

pivotal

moment.

Buildingonthe

Net-Zero

IndustryTrackerframework,

itassesses

progressacross

eightsectorsthattogetheraccountfor

nearly40%ofglobalgreenhouse

gas

emissions.Thisyear’sanalysis

marksa

momentofadjustment

andacceleration:

progress

is

real

but

uneven.The

next

phasewill

hinge

lesson

breakthroughsandmoreondeploying

provensolutionsthat

deliver

security,competitivenessandsustainability.Cleantechnologiesareadvancing,

butdeployment

isconstrained

by

highcosts,

policyfragmentation

and

infrastructuregaps.Thefocus

isshiftingfrom“Canwe?”to“Canwedeployatcostand

at

scale?”

under

tighteningeconomic,

policyandenergyconstraints.Climatepolicy

is

movingfromvoluntaryambitiontoenforced

accountability,

but

unevenlyacross

regions,complicatingtradeand

investment.Artificialintelligence

(AI)anddigitalizationare

projectedtodrivenearly

10%ofglobalelectricity

growth

by2030,forcingindustriestosecurelow-carbon

power.

Meanwhile,supplychainconcentrationin

criticalmineralshasbecomea

key

areatopic

of

discussion.Fourtrendscharacterizethis

next

phase:1

Economicviability:Technologiesareavailable,

butscaledepends

on

costcompetitiveness,financing

modelsand

risk

sharing.A5%

rise

in

interest

ratescan

raisewindandsolarcosts

by

about

30%.2

Integration:Synchronizedinvestmentin

grids,

carbondioxideand

hydrogen

infrastructure,portsand

industrialclusters

isessential.Gridspending,about$400

billion

annually

today,

may

riseto$483

billion

by2030,yet

BloombergNEF(BNEF)estimates$811

billion

peryearwill

be

requiredfor

netzero.3

Accountability:Verifiedcarbon

intensity

is

becomingcentralto

licensing,financingand

trade.The

EU’sCarbon

BorderAdjustment

(CBAM)andexpanding

EmissionsTradingSystem

(ETS)frameworkswillcoverover45%ofregional

industrialemissions

by

2030.4

Innovation:Progressdepends

onloweringthecostofcapital,

building

shared

infrastructureandaligningglobal

standards.

Fewerthan

10%ofhydrogen

projects

andunder

halfofcarboncapture,

utilizationand

storage

(CCUS)

projects

have

reachedfinal

investmentdecision

(FID).The

main

barrier

is

nottechnology,

buta

lackofclear

policy

and

reliabledemand.Thetransitionisenteringamore

complexphasemarkedbyregionaldivergence

and

systeminterdependence.Successwilldependonhoweffectivelymarkets,governmentsandindustriesalignacrossdemand,policy,infrastructureandcapital

tomakeproventechnologiesinvestableat

scale.Thispapercallsforcollectiveactiontoscalewhat

workstoday,de-riskthenextwaveofinnovation

anddelivercompetitive,cleanindustrialsystems.Scalingthe

IndustrialTransition:Hard-to-AbateSectorsandNet-ZeroProgress

in

2025ForewordRoberto

BoccaHead,Centre

for

Energyand

Materials;

Memberofthe

ExecutiveCommittee,World

Economic

ForumDavid

RableyManaging

Director;Global

EnergyTransition

Lead,AccentureScaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in

20253December2025Severalstructural

lessonsemerge.Policyfragmentationisreshapingmarkets:

Regionsare

movingtowardscomplianceandaccountability,

butthroughdivergentmixesofincentives,

carbon

pricing

anddisclosureframeworks.Economic

viability

defines

scale:Rising

financingcosts,combinedwithweakdemandforlow-carbon

solutions,constrain

investment.Competitivenessdependson

reducingemissionswhile

maintaining

costadvantagethrough

bankable

projects,predictableofftakesandcredible

policyframeworks.Integrationforscalewilldeterminesuccess:The

next

phasedependsonaligningtechnology,infrastructure,

policyandcapitalso

provensolutions

canscale

profitablyand

predictably–connectingpowergrids,CO2

transportandstorage

networks,

hydrogencorridorsandintegrated

industrialclusters.

Lookingahead,several

priorityactionsstand

out.–Createdemandcertaintythroughstandardized

green-materialcontracts,

public

procurementand

buyers’alliances.–Build

shared

infrastructure–

integratedpower,

hydrogenandCO2

transportand

storagenetworks–that

reducescostsanddrivescross-sector

scaling.–Lower

the

cost

of

capital

via

blended

finance,

carboncontractsfordifferenceand

risk-sharing

tools,

particularly

inemerging

markets.–

Scalemarket-readysolutionswhilenurturinginnovation–fast-trackelectrification,

efficiencyandstorage;support

hydrogenandCCUSwhereviableand

enhance

energy

securityand

growth.–

Balancetop-downframeworkswithbottom-

up

innovationbyaligningstable

policy

direction

withflexible,

locallydriven

businesssolutions.The

messagefrom2025

isclear:

industrialtransformation

isadvancing,

but

progress

remains

incomplete.The

nextfrontier

requiresgovernments

and

industriestoworkintandemsothat

low-carbontechnologies

become

investable,scalable,

inclusiveandglobally

competitive.This

pastyearwasadefining

momentfortheindustrialtransition–defined

bythe

realitiesofscalingamidtighteningeconomicsand

risingenergydemand.Acrosshard-to-abatesectors–

aviation,shipping,trucking,steel,cement,aluminium,

primarychemicals,andoil

andgas–technologiestocutemissions

exist,

butscaling

nowdependson

bankability,

profitability,

infrastructureandexecution

ratherthan

invention.Thisyear’seditionfindsthatconfidenceintechnology

remains

high,

but

progress

isconstrained

byenablingsystems.

Roughly

halfofindustrialemissionscan

be

abatedwith

mature

solutions;theother

halfdependson

deeperinnovation,stronger

policysupport,

plusenabling

infrastructure.

Hydrogenandcarboncapture,utilizationandstorage

(CCUS)

remain

inearlystages,

progressingthrough

pilots,

butfewerthan

1

in

10

projects

reachthefinal

investmentdecision.The

primaryconstraint

hasshiftedfrom

technicalfeasibilitytoeconomicandoperationalviability.

Energycosts,

policyfragmentationandinfrastructuregaps

nowdeterminewhatcan

scale.Reaching

net-zeroacrossthesesectorswill

require

around$30trillion

inadditional

investment,57%fromthe

broaderecosystem–grids,ports,

carbon

dioxide

(CO2)and

hydrogen

infrastructure–and43%from

industry

itself.While

Europetightenscompliance,the

US–traditionally

incentive-led–facesgrowing

uncertaintyfollowingthe

rollbackof

severalclean-energy

measures,

including

renewable

andelectricvehicletaxcredits.Thisfragmentation

is

redefining

industrialcompetitiveness–

markets

now

operate

underdifferentenvironmentalstandards,andcostsand

incentives

rarelyalign.The

result

is

a

multi-speedtransition.Cleanenergy

investment

will

reach$2.2trillion

in2025–twicethat

offossil

investment–

but90%ofthiscapitalsince

2021

has

gonetoadvancedeconomiesand

China

aswell

as

proventechnologies,

leavingemerging

marketsand

early-stagesolutions

underfunded.Executivesummary2025

marksadefining

momentforindustry–wherecompetitivenessand

productivity,

nottechnologyalone,

definesustainabletransformation.Scaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in

20254KeytakeawaysPolicyfragmentationisredefiningcompetitivenessTrends

and

progress

inindustrial

transformationFragmented

policiesandtradeare

reshapingindustrialtransition–

progress

is

real,

butscaling

nowdependsoneconomics

and

execution.IntegrationisthenextfrontierScaling

requires

moving

beyondone-offlow-carbon

projectstowards

integratedportfolios,supportedby

aligned

innovation,

infrastructureandfinance.Technologyisadvancing,butviabilitysetsthepaceRoughly50%ofindustrialemissions

can

already

be

abated

with

maturetechnologies,yetscalingnowdepends

onbankability,demandcertaintyandfinancialfeasibility.Cleantechnologydeployment

is

progressing–for

instance,

globalelectricity

use

in

industrygrew

byalmost4%

in20241

–yet

overalldelivery

isconstrained

by

input

prices,

infrastructuregapsand

unevendemandgrowth.Divergent

regionalframeworksandcarbonstandards

aredrivingasymmetries

intradeand

investment,creating

uneven

playingfieldsacross

markets.Realmomentum,

butprogressunder

pressureScaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in

202551

2025

update

Progress

is

uneven;corporateambitioncontinues

torise,yetregionalpolicy

momentum

is

diverging

(EU,

Middle

East,

India

positive;

US

rollback);companiesshiftingtowardscommerciallydriven

decarbonizationstrategiesRateseasedslightly,

but

bottlenecksshiftedto

projecteconomics/bankabilitywithexchange-

ratevolatility

raisingcosts

inemerging

marketsNowcentral,with

newtariffs

and

policyuncertaintyaffectingsupply

chains,

raising

costsand

refocusingon

self-relianceDeployment

remains

uneven:

maturetechnologies

(renewables,electrificationandstorage)arescaling

rapidly,

while

hydrogen

progress

remainssubduedamidcost

pressures

anddemand

uncertaintyNowfullyoperational,

driving

a

surge

inelectricitydemandand

a

race

for

greenelectronsandgrid

access,while

also

openingnewopportunitiestooptimise

energy

assets

and

systemselectrificationsignals

progress

butalso

intensifies

pressureongrids,supplychains

and

power

costs.Meanwhile,carbondioxide(CO2)emissions

rose0.9%to38.2gigatonnes(Gt)of

CO2

in2024arecordhigh(Figure

1).

Emissionstrendsvarysharply

bysector,withrecentdeclinesin

cement

and

steel,

whileaviation,aluminiumandprimarychemicalsshownotableincreases.Under

current

policies,emissionsareprojectedtoremain

near

38

Gtthrough2035,showingnosustaineddecline.Stated

policypledgescouldmodestlycutemissionsabout

1%peryearto2050butonlythe

NetZeroby

2050

Scenario,asoutlinedbythe

International

EnergyAgency(IEA),deliversastructuraltransformation,requiringanearly7%annual

drop

in

global

emissions

thisdecade

(Figure2).5

Thisdivergenceunderscores

thatreducingemissionsin

hard-to-abatesectorsremainsthedefiningchallengeofthedecade.

Heavy

industries,suchassteel,cement,aluminium,oilandgas,andtrucking,remaincentralto

industrialvaluechainsandaccountforadominantshare

ofglobalemissions(nearly40%),exposingthedelicate

balancebetweenenergysecurity,affordability,andclimateambition.Together,theseshifts

mark2025as

a

year

of

transition

undertension.Thefoundationsforreducingemissions

in

heavy

industryexist,

but

are

increasinglyshaped

by

regionalasymmetry

andtechnologicaldisruption.Newgrowthenginesarereshapingenergydemand.Thesurgeofelectrification(+4.3%

in2024),2

automationandartificial

intelligence

(AI)hascreated

new

industrial

loadsandalteredthegeographyofenergy

use.

In2024,global

energydemand

rose2.2%,wellabovethe

decade

saverage,withAIanddatacentres

alone

projected

todrive

nearly

10%ofglobal

powerdemand

growth

by2030.3

Theseconcentratedand

inflexible

loads

are

redefining

howgridsare

planned,financedand

operatedtesting

resilience,

reliabilityandcostefficiency

in

realtime.Industryaloneaccountedfor

nearly40%

ofglobal

electricitydemandgrowth

in2024.

Industrialelectricity

use

rose

nearly4%a

markedaccelerationfrom2023,driven

byexpansion

inelectro-intensive

manufacturingand

broader

industrial

recovery.4

Thissurge

in

industrialNet

zeroEconomic/capitalTariffs

andtrade

policyGreentechnologyAI–energy

nexus2024snapshotStrong

policy

momentumandexpandingcorporate

net-zeropledges;some

efficiency

andemissions

improvements,though

progress

remains

insufficientHigh

interest

rates

madecapital

availabilitya

binding

constraintLimited

policyattention;marginalto

analyseStrong

policysupportforemergingsolutions

such

ashydrogen,

biofuelsand

CCUS;

early

pilotsshowing

promise1.1TABLE

1TopicInaworldof

rising

demand,

shiftingtradepatternsanddigitalandtechnological

disruption,

thecentralquestion

is

how

industrycan

remaincompetitivewhileacceleratingtheenergytransition.Can

industrialsystemssustaingrowth

andefficiencywhilecuttingemissions,

adaptingto

newenergydynamics,and

maintainingsecurityandcohesion

inan

increasinglyfragmented

global

landscape?Table

1summarizes

how

keydynamics

haveevolvedsince2024highlightingwhere

progress

hasstalled,

momentum

hasshiftedand

newconstraints

haveemerged.Note:Arrow

indicates

the

overall

trend

in

momentum

since

2024.Source:World

Economic

Forum.The

year

in

reviewScaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in

20256Strategicrelevance

2025in

review–what

has

changed?Nascenttechnologywith

speculative

benefits个个-0.9%-2.2%10.1%0.0%+2.7%-5.3%+9.7%-3.8%403530

2520YoYchange*AviationShippingTruckingSteelAluminium**CementPrimarychemicalsOilandgas***FIGURE2World

CO2

emissions

projection

in

Gt

CO2e,

2024–205045*Year-on-year(YoY)change

represents2024vs.2023

(except

for

oil

and

gas

which

is

2022

vs

2021);**Aluminium

and

primary

chemicals

2024

data

based

onAccenture

analysis;***Oil

and

gas

data

for2018–2022

since

data

onwards

2023

not

available;oil

and

gas

refers

to

Scope

1and2

emissions.Source:World

Economic

Forum.+6.4%+2.7%+0.6%-0.4%

+4.1%-3.5%

+2.3%-6.4%CO2

emissions

in

hard-to-abate

sectors

in

Gt

CO2

equivalent

(CO2e),

2019vs.

2024201020242035204020500.01.0

2.03.04.05.06.0Scaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in

20257Source:

International

Energy

Agency(IEA);World

Economic

Forum.●2019●2024●NetZero

Emissions

by2050●

Current

PoliciesScenario●Stated

PoliciesScenarioGt

CO2eFIGURE1015105shipping,trucking,steel,cement,aluminium,

primarychemicals,andoil

and

gas–

the

NZIT

benchmarksactualsystem

performanceand

readinesstotransform.System

performance

isassessedthroughindicatorssuchas

industryoutput,operational

process

intensity,energy

mix,andvaluechain

emissionsandoffsets,

providinga

clearview

ofactualsectoral

progress.

Readiness

isassessedacrossfiveenablers:technology,

demand,

policy,

infrastructureandcapital.Thesedimensions

highlightwherestructuralconditionsare

in

place–andwheregaps

remain

–

toaccelerate

industrialtransformation.Eacheditionalternates

between

acomprehensivequantitativeassessment(2024edition)andafocused

update

(this

edition),

ensuringcontinuityofinsightswhile

balancingdepthwithefficiency.The

NZIT

integratesglobal

net-zero

pathwaysfrom

key

international

andsectoral

bodiesand

industry

roadmaps,comparing

business-as-usualtrajectorieswith

net-zero-aligned

pathwaysto

revealthescale

ofaction

required.Bycombiningannual

pulsechecks

withperiodicdeepdives,the

NZIT

helps

decision-

makers

prioritize

interventions,tracksectoral

progress,andacceleratethetransitionofthe

hard-to-abatesectors.ScalingtheIndustrialTransition:Hard-to-Abate

SectorsandNet-ZeroProgressin2025marks

a

new

phase

intheevolutionofthe

Net-Zero

IndustryTracker

(NZIT)focusingonaqualitativeassessmentofprogress,

readiness

andsystemalignmentacrosstheworld’s

most

emission-intensivesectors.

Itfocusesontwo

corequestions:1How

fast

are

sectors

progressing

today?2

Whatconditionsmust

bestrengthened

toacceleratetheirtransformation?Thisyear’seditiontakesadifferentform.Ratherthanservingasa

data

tracker,

which

willbe

madeavailableonline,the2025

white

papersynthesizesthe

mainsystem-level

barriersandenablersshaping

industrialtransition.

It

buildsonthe

NZIT’sanalyticalframeworkbutfocuseson

interpretation,

readinessandscalingdynamics.

Thequantitativedashboardsandsectordatawill

be

releasedseparately,providingdata-driven

snapshotsandindicatorsthatcomplementthis

narrativeassessment.Launched

bytheWorld

Economic

Forumin2022,the

NZITprovides

a

fact-basedframeworktoassessthedecarbonizationprogressofhard-to-abate

industriesagainst

net-zerotargetsfor2030and2050.

Covering

eightemission-intensivesectors–aviation,growthhasslowedto

11%

in2024,

down

fromthe24–29%expansionof

previousyears.9

Volatile

interest

rates,fiscaltighteningand

riskaversion–particularly

inemergingeconomies–

have

madecleancapital

moreexpensive,withexchange-rate

volatilityfurther

raisingfinancingcostsanddeterring

foreign

investment.Overlaying

all

of

this

is

a

new

geography

ofenergyandtrade.Tariffs,regionalcarbonpricesand

exportcontrolsareredrawingtradeandtechnologyroutes,reshapingcoststructuresandsupplychains,

andcreatingamoreregionalized

energy

landscape.

Demandforkeymineralssurged

in2024–

lithium

up

nearly30%,nickel,cobalt,graphiteand

rare

earthsrising6–8%year-on-year(YoY),10

andbattery

demand

up25%,drivenby

electrification.11

Yetsupply

remains

highlyconcentrated:Chinacontrolsaround70%ofglobalearthproductionandprocesses

almost90%oftheworld’srareearthelements,12

intensifying

competitionforaccessandcreatingpressureonotherregionstosecurealternativesuppliersanddiversifysourcing.Asglobalsupplychainsreorganize

aroundresilienceratherthanefficiency,affordability

andsecurityareincreasinglyseenas

prerequisitesforsustainability,nottrade-offs.Thetransitionwill

advanceonlyasfastasaccesstotheseessential

materialsallow,becausecriticalminerals

underpin

manylow-carbontechnologies.Technology

progress

is

real,

but

scalingremains

constrained

by

system

readiness.Energysourcesarediversifying,but

investmentandpolicyclaritycontinuetolag.

Renewables

and

nucleararecompetingtoanchorsupplyforboth

industrialanddigitaldemand,yetcoststructures,

permittingtimelinesandinfrastructurebottlenecks

remainconstraints.Sustainableaviationfuel(SAF)isadvancingfrompilotsto

early

scale:

global

outputisexpectedtoroughlydoubleto

about

2milliontonnes(MT)in2025(approximately

0.7%

of

jet

fuel)6

–a

step

up

that

is

still

far

short

of

needs.Asia

isaddingcapacityfasterthanlocaldemand,likelyexportingsurplusandeasingpricesatthe

margin.The

EU’s

ReFuelEUmandates(2%SAF

in

2025,rampingsteeplythereafterto70%by

2050)7

are

set

tostrengthendemandsignalsandaccelerateuptake.Yetthetransitionisadvancingunderfinancial

andstructuralstrain.

Energyprices

haveeased

fromtheircrisis

peaks,

butvolatility

persists,erodingcompetitivenessforenergy-intensiveuserssuchaschemicals,

aluminium

and

digitalinfrastructure,andexposing

howfragile

industrial

competitiveness

remains

incompetitivecostenvironment.

Investment

patternsareshiftingtoo:cleanenergy

investment

remains

resilient,expectedto

reach$2.2trillion

in2025,

roughlytwicethecapitaldirectedtofossilfuels.8

Yetannual In2024,global

CO2

emissionsrose0.9%

to

about38Gt–the

highest

on

record–asenergydemand

climbedroughly

2%,includinga4%

increaseinelectricityuse.BOX

1Scaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in2025Scaling

the

Industrial

Transition:Hard-to-Abate

Sectors

and

Net-Zero

Progress

in

20258

Aviation

Shipping Trucking Steel

Aluminium CementPrimarychemicals Oil

and

gas8.8trillion

RPK*(actual

passengertrafficcarried)121.7trillion

tkm*

(annual

distancecovered)35.1trillion

tkm*(annualdistance

covered)1,883

MT(annual

production)113

MT(annual

production)3,950

MT(annual

production)754

MT(annual

production)*RPK=revenue

passenger-km;tkm=

tonne-km;

mbpd=

million

barrels

per

day;

bcfd

=

bi