2026年首席经济学家展望报告

CentrefortheNew

EconomyandSociety

ChiefEconomists’Outlook

WJRLD

ECCNMIC

FORUM

INSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2026

Images:GettyImages,Unsplash

Contents

Executivesummary

1EconomicrisksoutlookAssetvaluations

Debtandspending

2Growth,policyandgeoeconomicoutlookTradeandinvestmentoutlook

Regionalgrowthandpolicyexpectations

3AIadoptionoutlookRegionaladoptionIndustryadoptionFirm-leveladoption

Contributors

Endnotes

Disclaimer

Thisdocumentispublishedbythe

WorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.

Thefindings,interpretationsand

conclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedand

endorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,

Partnersorotherstakeholders.

©2026WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformation

storageandretrievalsystem.

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ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary2

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary3

January2026

ChiefEconomists,Outlook

Thisbriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicydevelopmentresearchaswellas

consultationsandsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomistsfromboththepublicandprivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety.

Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthecurrenteconomic

environmentandidentifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-makersandbusinessleadersinresponsetothecompoundingshockstotheglobaleconomyfromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.

Thesurveyfeaturedinthisbriefingwasconductedfrom19Novemberto3December2025.

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary4

Executivesummary

With53%ofchiefeconomistsexpectingglobal

economicconditionstoweaken,28%expecting

nochangeand19%expectingastrongereconomy,theprospectsfortheglobaleconomytilttowards

thenegativeintheyearahead,albeitwithimprovedsentimentcomparedtolastyear’soutlook.

Drawingonasurveyanddialoguewithleading

chiefeconomists,theWorldEconomicForum’slatestChiefEconomists’Outlookidentifiesdownsiderisksintheformofinflatedassetvalues,buildingdebt

pressuresandintensifyinggeopoliticaltensions,whichareshiftingtradeandinvestmentpatterns.

Inthemediumterm,theintegrationofartificialintelligence(AI)remainsakeysourceofboth

opportunitiesandrisksfortheglobaleconomy.

Inavolatileenvironment,financialmarketshavemaintainedanupwardtrend,sparkingdebateaboutthesustainabilityofcurrentvaluations.

Someeconomistshavehighlightedrisksassociatedwithassetbubblesandthepossibilityofabrupt

corrections,whileotherspointouttheunderlyingprofitabilityandrealinvestmentthatdistinguishthesefirmsfrompreviousspeculativeepisodes.

Traditionalsafe-havenassetssuchasgoldhaveregainedappealinanuncertainenvironment,

whilethetrajectoryoftheUSdollarremainsakeyquestionforglobalinvestors.

Theissueofdebt,bothpublicandprivate,

hasmovedtotheforefrontasgovernmentsand

corporationscontendwiththelegacyofprolongedborrowingandmanagingelevateddebtlevels,

promptingareassessmentoffiscalapproaches.

Areassuchasdefence,digitalinfrastructureandenergyareexpectedtocommandlargersharesofpublicbudgets,reflectingthedemandsofa

moreunpredictableworldandtheimperatives

oftechnologicalchange.Atthesametime,

theneedtobalancetheseprioritieswithother

objectivesisintensifyingdebatesaboutthefuturedirectionofmonetaryandfiscalpolicies.

Tradeandinvestmentflowsareadaptingtoa

neweracharacterizedbystrategiccompetition

andevolvingalliances.TheUSandChinahave

de-escalatedtradetensions,butmanyunderlyingfrictionsremainunresolved.Asglobalsupply

chainsadjust,regionalandbilateralagreementsareexpectedtomultiplywhilecountriesworktosecure

accesstoessentialtechnologiesandresources.Theoutlookforglobaltradeismixed,withsomeregionspositionedtobenefitfromemergingopportunities

whileothersfacechallengesfromprotectionist

measuresandpolicyuncertainty.Foreigndirect

investmentisalsobeingredirectedinresponsetothesedevelopments,resultinginvariedprospectsformajoreconomies,accordingtochiefeconomists.

TherapidadoptionofAIstandsoutasbotha

sourceofoptimismandacatalystfordisruption.

Whilethepotentialforsignificantproductivity

improvementsiswidelyacknowledged,thepaceanddistributionofthesebenefitsareexpectedtovaryconsiderablyacrossregions,industriesandfirmsizes.Theimpactonemploymentremains

uncertain,withdivergentviewsonthelongterm

andmodestdisruptionpredictedintheshortterm.

Regionalgrowthtrajectoriesreflectthecomplex

interactionoftheseforces.TheUSisexperiencingasurgeininvestmentinAIanddatacentre

infrastructure,fuellinghopesforaproductivity

revivalevenasquestionspersistaboutthescope

anddurabilityofthesegains.Chinaismanaging

adelicatebalancebetweenexternaldemandand

domesticpressures,leveragingtechnological

innovationtomaintainmomentum.Europefaces

amoresubduedoutlook,weigheddownby

demographictrendsandthecostsassociated

withconflictandfragmentedregulatoryframeworks,whileregionssuchasSouthAsiaandEastAsiaandthePacificremainrelativebrightspots,supportedbyreformandintegration.Otherregions,such

asSub-SaharanAfricaandLatinAmerica,aregrapplingwiththedualchallengesofdebtandtheneedforstructuraltransformation.

Theprevailingmoodisoneofvigilantanticipation,withthepotentialforrapidshiftsinsentimentever-present.Thedecisionsmadebygovernments,

businessesandworkersintheyearaheadwill

bepivotalindeterminingwhetherthisperiodof

technological,geopoliticalandeconomicchangeleadstoshort-termriskmanagementonlyorlaysthefoundationsforbroad-basedprosperity.Astheworldmovesinto2026,thecentralchallengeistoharnesstherelativeresilienceandcontinuedcreativityoftheglobaleconomytoensurethatasmanypeopleaspossiblecanaccesstherewardsoftheneweconomy.

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary5

Economicrisksoutlook

TheJanuary2026ChiefEconomists’Outlookopensonacautiouslybrighternotethanthepastyear.

Although53%ofrespondentsstillexpecttheglobaloutlooktoweakenintheyearahead,thisisan

improvementcomparedwiththe72%whoexpectedthisoutcomeinSeptember2025.Yetevenasthe

relativeresilienceoftheglobaleconomytoshocksinthepastyearhasbrightenedviewsoftheyearahead,therealsoremainsignificantuncertainties.

Tradeandinvestmenttensionsremainaconcern,whileongoingartificialintelligence(AI)adoption,thoughproceedingunevenlyacrossgeographies,industriesandfirms,raiseshopesformeaningfulproductivitygains.Largedownsiderisksremainin

theformofinflatedassetprices,increasedlevelsofpublicdebtandhighgeopoliticaluncertainty.

Chiefeconomistssurveyedfrequentlylistedthe

potentialofaburstingassetbubbleaswellasrisingdebtpressuresamongthemostworryingpotentialmacroeconomicdevelopments.Chapter1takesacloserlookatbothsetsofrisks.Chapter2explorestradeandinvestmentintheglobaleconomyaswellasregionalgrowthandpolicyexpectations.The

thirdchapterexplorestheexpectedproductivityimpactfromtheadoptionanddeploymentofAI,aswellasthetechnology’spotentialimpactsonlabourmarkets.

Figure1:Theglobaleconomicoutlook

Lookingtotheyearahead,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy?

MuchweakerSomewhatweakerUnchangedSomewhatstrongerMuchstronger

Shareofrespondents(%)

100

3

41

50

9

19

28

17

28

23

20

42

11

41

54

17

9

0

17

42

61

53

56

47

37

69

50

3

3

6

39

3

100May23Jan24May24Sep24Jan25May25Sep25Jan26

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Source:ChiefEconomistsSurveysandOutlooks.(May2023–November2025).

Note:ChiefEconomistsSurveysareconducted7–8weeksaheadofthelaunchofanewChiefEconomists’Outlook.InMay’sedition,chiefeconomistslookedattheremainderoftheyear.Inothereditions,theoutlookfortheyearaheadisgiven.Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary6

Assetvaluations

GlobalmarketsinthepastyearhavebeendrivenbyaconcentratedUSequityboomamongAIleaders.Thoughstillbelowthelevelsreachedatthepeakofthebubble,valuationsofthetopsevenUStechfirms(the“magnificentseven”,M7)havenow

reachedthetop10%oftheirhistoricaldistributions.1Equitygainshavebeenlargelyconcentratedinthesetechfirms:theM7shareinthetotalindexmarket

capitalizationhasgrowntonearly35%,fromabout

20%inNovember2022.2Yetotherassetsalsosawremarkabledevelopments.Whilebitcoinandothercryptocurrenciesslumped,goldhassurged60%

thisyearonthebackofhighuncertainty,supportedbysafe-havendemand,includingfromcentral

banks–itsbestannualperformancesince1979.3Meanwhile,theUSdollarhaltedthedepreciationpathithadenteredinApril,postinggainsagainstothermajorcurrencies.4

Figure2:Assetdevelopments

Lookingattheyearahead,whatdoyouexpecttohappentothevalueofthefollowingcategoriesofassets?

Significantdecrease

Decrease

Nochange

Increase

Significantincrease

AI-relatedstocksinChina

24

9

65

3

Europeanstocks

21

21

59

Gold

31

2343

3

OtherstocksintheUS

29

2943

AI-relatedstocksintheUS

9

43

940

OtherstocksinChina

24

4530

USdollar

54

2620

Cryptocurrencies

12

50

2118

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(November2025).

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary7

Intheyearahead,anarrowmajorityof52%

ofchiefeconomistssurveyedexpectAI-related

stocksintheUStodecline,with9%anticipating

asignificantdecline.However,40%ofrespondentsexpectfurthergains,highlightingtheuncertainty

ofthecurrentsituation.ComparedtoAIstocks,

otherstocksintheUSareviewedsomewhatmorefavourably,althoughamajorityof58%alsoexpectvaluestoplateauordecline.Concernsabout

valuationsintheUScontrastwithexuberance

aboutAI-relatedstocksinChina.Overtwo-thirds

ofchiefeconomistssurveyedanticipateincreasesinvalueintheyearahead.OnotherChinese

stocks,respondentsaresplit,with45%anticipatingnochangeineitherdirection.FollowingthestrongperformanceofEuropeanstocksin2025,amajorityof59%ofrespondentsexpectfurtherincreases

intheyearahead.5

Whileamajorityof54%expectgoldtohave

reacheditspeak,46%ofrespondentsexpectitsvaluetoincreaseevenfurtherintheyearahead.

WorldBankanalysisattributesthe2025surge

mainlytosafe-havendemandamidgeopolitical

tensionsandpolicyuncertainty,alongsiderobust

centralbankpurchasesthathavesignificantly

increasedtheirshareoftotaldemandcompared

withadecadeago.6Thepreciousmetaltraditionallyfulfilsaportfoliodiversificationroleandmay

continuetofulfilthisroleagainintheyearahead.7

Whenitcomestocryptocurrencies,62%

anticipatefurtherdecreasesinvalueintheyear

ahead.Afteramarketcrashon10October

exposedweaknessesinthewidercryptocurrencyinfrastructure,bitcoinlostaquarterofitsvalue

injusttwomonths.8Furthermore,amajorityof

54%expecttheUSdollartoresumeitsdownwardtrajectory.Adepreciatingdollaraffectsboth

borrowers’andforeigninvestors’balancesheetsandcouldeasefinancialconditionsforemergingmarketsbyloweringdebtservicingburdens.9

Valuationsandinvestorbehaviourraisethe

spectreofassetbubbles.AccordingtoBank

forInternationalSettlements(BIS)research,US

equitiesandgoldexhibitpatternshistorically

associatedwithbubbleepisodes,surgingin

lockstepforthefirsttimeinthelast50years.10

TheEuropeanCentralBank’s(ECB)latestFinancialStabilityReviewalsohighlights“stretched”

valuationsofmajorUStechstocks,drivenby

fearofmissingout,andwarnsthatnegative

surprises,includingpoliticalshocksaroundthe

FederalReserve,couldtriggersharpcorrections.11TheInternationalMonetaryFund’s(IMF)OctoberGlobalFinancialStabilityReportaddsthatralliescentredonthemagnificentsevensignificantly

raisetheriskthatdisappointmentinafewfirmscouldreverberateacrossglobalequityand

bondmarkets.12

Atthesametime,therearecredibleargumentsagainstviewingtheAIboomasabubble,whichtemperthecaseforadownwardcorrection.

Unliketheera,today’sleadingAIfirms

arealreadyhighlyprofitable,withstrongearningsgrowthunderpinningrisingsharepricesand

significantrealinvestmentindatacentresand

infrastructure.13Price-to-earningsmultiplesfortopAInamessitatlevelsthatassumemultipleyearsofuninterruptedgrowth,butremainbelowsomepeaksreachedduringthebubble.14TheOECD(OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)andIMFbothnotethatAI-

relatedcapitalspendinghasmateriallysupportedUSgrowthin2025,evenafterstrippingoutfront-loadedactivitylinkedtotariffs.15

Figure3:Breadthofimpact

Inthecaseofasignificantdecrease,whatisyourexpectationofthebreadthoftheimpactontheglobaleconomy?

WidespreadContained

Gold1189

AI-relatedstocksinChina1189

OtherstocksinChina1783

Europeanstocks1783

Cryptocurrencies2971

OtherstocksintheUS6337

USdollar6634

AI-relatedstocksintheUS7426

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(November2025).

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary8

Chiefeconomistswereaskedtoassessthebreadthofimpactofasignificantdecreaseinthevalueof

certainassetsontheglobaleconomy.ThecentralityoftheUSintheglobaleconomystandsout.16

Almostthree-quartersofrespondents(74%)expectasignificantdecreaseinthevalueofUSAIassetstohavewidespreadimpactsontheglobaleconomy,whileaquarterexpectittobemorecontained.

Toalesserextent(63%),thisisalsothecasefor

otherstocksintheUS.Someestimatessuggest

thatastockmarketcrashintheUScouldgeneratepotentiallossesupto$35trillion.17Two-thirdsof

chiefeconomistssurveyedalsoforeseewidespread

impactsshouldtheUSdollardecreasesignificantlyinvalue.Whenitcomestogold,cryptocurrenciesorstocksinChinaorEurope,themajorityanticipatetheimpactofasignificantdecreasetobecontained.

Chiefeconomistswerealsoaskedtoassessthe

timeframeoftheexpectedimpact.Asignificant

decreaseinthevalueoftheUSdollarisexpectedbyamajorityofrespondents(56%)tohavealong-lastingimpact.Allotherassets,includingAI-relatedstocksintheUS,areanticipatedbythemajority

ofrespondentstohaveshort-livedimpactsontheglobaleconomy.

Figure4:Timeframeofimpact

Inthecaseofasignificantdecrease,whatisyourexpectationofthetimeframeoftheimpactontheglobaleconomy?

Short-livedLonglasting

USdollar4456

AI-relatedstocksintheUS5941

OtherstocksintheUS68

32

Cryptocurrencies74

26

AI-relatedstocksinChina82

18

Gold82

18

Europeanstocks88

12

OtherstocksinChina91

9

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(November2025).

Debtandspending

Chiefeconomistswereaskedtoassessthe

likelihoodofarangeofmacroeconomiccrises

risksinadvancedandemergingeconomiesin

theyearahead,includingsovereigndebtcrises,currencycrises,corporatedebtcrises,banking

crisesandhouseholddebtcrises.Overall,noneofthepotentialcriseswereconsideredtobelikelybyamajorityofthesurveyedchiefeconomists.

However,allriskswereassessedtocarryahigherlikelihoodinemergingmarketscomparedto

advancedeconomies.

Inadvancedeconomies,viewsweresplitequallybetweenthosewhoconsideredsovereigndebt

criseslikely,unlikelyanduncertain.Inemergingmarkets,almosthalf(47%)sawthemasalikelyoutcomewhileonly9%sawitasunlikelyinthe

yearahead.Globalpublicdebtstoodatarecord$102trillionin2024andisprojectedtorise

about100%ofGDP(grossdomesticproduct)

by2029.18Althoughonlyaccountingforless

thanathirdofglobaldebt,levelsindeveloping

countriesaregrowingtwiceasfastsince2010.19Whilesovereignbondmarketsinadvanced

economiesincreasinglyrelyonprice-sensitive

investors,growingdependenceondomestic

sourcesoffinancingiscreatingnewvulnerabilitiesinemergingmarkets.20

Figure5:Macroeconomicrisks

Lookingattheyearahead,howdoyouassessthelikelihoodofthefollowingmacroeconomicrisks?

HighlyunlikelyUnlikelyNeitherlikelynorunlikelyLikelyHighlylikelySovereigndebtcrises

Advancedeconomies3333328

3

Emergingmarkets94447

Currencycrises

Advancedeconomies115317

19

Emergingmarkets124741

Corporatedebtcrises

Advancedeconomies3334417

3

Emergingmarkets2456

21

Bankingcrises

Advancedeconomies65031

14

Emergingmarkets3244

24

Householddebtcrises

Advancedeconomies115625

8

Emergingmarkets33256

9

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(November2025).

Currencycriseswereviewedasunlikelyorhighly

unlikelyinadvancedeconomiesby64%of

respondents.MeasuresofUSdollarvolatilityrecentlydeclinedtolevelslastseenbeforethelastUS

presidentialelection.21Ontheotherhand,foremergingmarkets,thissharedropstoonly12%,comparedto41%whovieweditasalikelypossibility.AdamagingrunontheArgentinianpesoinOctoberwasareminderofhowquicklycurrencycrisescouldmanifest.22

Viewsoncorporatedebtcrisesweremixed.In

advancedeconomies,36%viewedthemasunlikelyorhighlyunlikely,comparedto20%whoviewed

themaslikelyorhighlylikely.InlateSeptember2025,UScarpartscompanyFirstBrandsfiled

forbankruptcy,butcontagionremainedlimited.23

Inemergingmarkets,24%sawthemasunlikely

comparedto21%whoconsideredthemalikely

outcomeintheyearahead.Bankingcrisesin

advancedeconomieswereviewedasunlikelyby

mostrespondents(56%).Inemergingmarkets,thissharestoodat32%,comparedto24%ofthose

whoviewedthemaslikely.Lebanon’songoingturmoilservesasareminderofthepotential

dangersofabankingcrisis.24

Inadvancedeconomies,householddebtcrises

wereseenasunlikelyby56%andhighlyunlikelyby11%ofrespondents.Inbothadvancedeconomiesandemergingmarkets,lessthan10%of

respondentsconsideredhouseholddebtcrisesalikelypossibilityintheyearahead.

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary9

ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary10

Figure6:Publicdebtmanagementstrategies

Inthenextfiveyears,howlikelyisitthatgovernmentswilladoptthefollowingstrategiestomanagehighdebtlevels?

HighlyunlikelyUnlikelyNeitherlikelynorunlikelyLikelyHighlylikelyRelyonhigherinflationtodecreasedebtburden

AdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarkets

6

13

58

55

24

26

3

9

6

Increasepublicrevenuesthroughtaxes

AdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarkets

31

56

53

21

18

16

6

Relyonhighergrowthtodecreasedebtburden

AdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarkets

41

38

61

15

13

19

3

3

6

Directprivatesavingsandinvestmentstofundpublicdebt

Advancedeconomies9242129

18

Emergingmarkets193838

6

Increasepublicrevenuesthroughtariffs

Advancedeconomies123256

Emergingmarkets63153

9

Cutpublicspendingandinvestment

Advancedeconomies63832

24

Emergingmarkets283438

Debtrestructuringordefault

AdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarkets

38

32

50

24

28

16

3

3

6

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(November2025).

Chiefeconomistswerealsoaskedtoassess

thestrategiesgovernmentsarelikelytoemploytomanagehighdebtlevels.Withinadvanced

economies,higherinflation,taxationandtariffsareexpectedtobemorelikelystrategies.Withinemergingmarkets,highergrowth,inflation,

taxationanddebtrestructuringareexpectedtobemorelikelystrategies.

Inbothadvancedeconomiesandemergingmarkets,largemajoritiesofchiefeconomistssurveyedexpectgovernmentstorelyonhigherinflationtodecreasethedebtburdenoverthenextfiveyears(67%and

61%,respectively).Inmanyrichereconomies,thislooksincreasinglylikely.25Taxincreasesarealso

seenaslikely,inadvancedeconomiesby62%andinemergingmarketsby53%ofrespondents.Thisremainsadifficultpathforpolicy-makers,asrecentexperiencesintheUKhaveshown.26

Growingoutofdebtismoreoftenviewedasa

likelystrategyinemergingmarkets.In2026,the

averagepublicdebt-to-GDPratioisprojectedat

nearly112%inadvancedeconomies,comparedwitharound77%inemergingmarketsandmid