2026年首席经济学家展望报告

CentrefortheNewEconomyandSocietyChiefEconomists’OutlookI

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ORUMImages:Getty

Images,UnsplashContentsExecutivesummary1

Economic

risksoutlook

AssetvaluationsDebtand

spending2Growth,policyand

geoeconomic

outlook

Tradeand

investmentoutlookRegionalgrowthandpolicy

expectations3AIadoption

outlook

Regionaladoption

Industryadoption

Firm-leveladoptionContributorsEndnotesDisclaimerThisdocumentis

published

bytheWorld

Economic

Forumasacontributionto

a

project,

insight

area

or

interaction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedherein

are

a

resultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitated

andendorsedbytheWorld

Economic

Forumbutwhoseresultsdo

not

necessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorld

EconomicForum,nor

the

entirety

of

its

Members,Partnersorother

stakeholders.©2026World

Economic

Forum.All

rightsreserved.

No

part

of

this

publication

maybereproducedortransmitted

in

anyformorbyany

means,

including

photocopyingandrecording,or

by

any

informationstorage

and

retrieval

system.4568131315212122242629ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

2January2026ChiefEconomists,

OutlookThis

briefing

buildsonthe

latest

policydevelopment

researchaswellasconsultationsandsurveyswith

leadingchiefeconomistsfrom

boththe

public

and

privatesectors,organized

bytheWorld

Economic

Forum’sCentreforthe

New

EconomyandSociety.Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthe

current

economicenvironmentand

identify

prioritiesforfurtheraction

by

policy-makersand

business

leaders

in

responsetothecompoundingshockstotheglobal

economyfromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.Thesurveyfeatured

inthis

briefingwasconductedfrom

19

November

to3

December2025.ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

3With53%ofchiefeconomists

expecting

globaleconomicconditionstoweaken,28%expectingnochangeand

19%expectinga

stronger

economy,theprospectsfortheglobaleconomy

tilt

towardsthe

negative

intheyearahead,albeitwith

improved

sentimentcomparedto

lastyear’soutlook.Drawingonasurvey

and

dialoguewith

leadingchiefeconomists,theWorld

Economic

Forum’slatest

Chief

Economists’Outlookidentifiesdownside

risks

intheformofinflated

assetvalues,

building

debtpressuresand

intensifyinggeopoliticaltensions,

whichareshiftingtradeand

investment

patterns.Inthe

mediumterm,the

integrationofartificial

intelligence

(AI)

remainsa

keysourceof

bothopportunitiesand

risksfortheglobaleconomy.Inavolatileenvironment,financial

markets

have

maintainedan

upwardtrend,sparkingdebate

aboutthesustainabilityofcurrentvaluations.Someeconomists

have

highlighted

risksassociated

withasset

bubblesandthe

possibilityofabruptcorrections,whileothers

pointoutthe

underlying

profitabilityand

real

investmentthatdistinguish

thesefirmsfrom

previousspeculativeepisodes.Traditionalsafe-havenassetssuch

as

gold

have

regainedappeal

inan

uncertainenvironment,whilethetrajectoryofthe

USdollar

remains

a

keyquestionforglobal

investors.The

issueofdebt,

both

publicand

private,has

movedtotheforefrontasgovernmentsandcorporationscontendwiththe

legacyofprolonged

borrowingand

managingelevateddebt

levels,promptinga

reassessmentoffiscalapproaches.Areassuchasdefence,

digital

infrastructure

and

energyareexpectedtocommand

larger

shares

ofpublic

budgets,

reflectingthedemandsof

amore

unpredictableworldandthe

imperativesoftechnologicalchange.Atthesametime,the

needto

balancethese

prioritieswithotherobjectives

is

intensifyingdebatesaboutthefuture

directionofmonetaryand

fiscal

policies.Tradeand

investmentflowsareadaptingto

aneweracharacterized

bystrategiccompetitionandevolvingalliances.The

USand

China

havede-escalatedtradetensions,

but

many

underlying

frictions

remain

unresolved.Asglobalsupplychainsadjust,

regionaland

bilateralagreementsare

expectedto

multiplywhilecountriesworktosecureaccesstoessentialtechnologiesandresources.The

outlookforglobaltrade

is

mixed,withsome

regions

positionedto

benefitfromemergingopportunitieswhileothersfacechallengesfrom

protectionistmeasuresand

policy

uncertainty.

Foreigndirectinvestment

isalso

being

redirected

in

responseto

thesedevelopments,resultinginvaried

prospectsfor

majoreconomies,accordingtochiefeconomists.The

rapidadoptionofAIstandsout

as

both

asourceofoptimismanda

catalystfor

disruption.Whilethe

potentialforsignificant

productivityimprovements

iswidelyacknowledged,the

pace

anddistributionofthese

benefitsareexpected

to

varyconsiderablyacross

regions,

industriesand

firmsizes.The

impactonemployment

remainsuncertain,withdivergentviewsonthe

longtermand

modestdisruption

predicted

intheshortterm.Regionalgrowthtrajectories

reflectthecomplexinteractionoftheseforces.The

US

isexperiencing

asurge

in

investment

inAIanddata

centreinfrastructure,fuelling

hopesfora

productivityrevivalevenasquestions

persist

aboutthe

scopeanddurabilityofthesegains.

China

is

managingadelicate

balance

betweenexternaldemand

anddomestic

pressures,

leveragingtechnologicalinnovationto

maintain

momentum.

Europefacesamoresubduedoutlook,weighed

down

bydemographictrendsandthecostsassociatedwithconflictandfragmentedregulatoryframeworks,

while

regionssuchasSouthAsiaand

East

Asia

and

the

Pacific

remain

relative

brightspots,supported

by

reformand

integration.Other

regions,suchasSub-SaharanAfricaand

LatinAmerica,are

grapplingwiththedualchallengesof

debt

and

the

needforstructuraltransformation.The

prevailing

mood

isoneofvigilantanticipation,

withthe

potentialfor

rapidshifts

insentimentever-

present.Thedecisions

made

bygovernments,businessesandworkers

intheyearaheadwillbe

pivotal

indeterminingwhetherthis

periodoftechnological,geopoliticalandeconomicchange

leadstoshort-term

riskmanagementonly

or

lays

thefoundationsforbroad-basedprosperity.As

theworld

moves

into2026,thecentralchallenge

isto

harnessthe

relative

resilienceandcontinued

creativityoftheglobaleconomyto

ensurethat

as

many

peopleas

possiblecanaccessthe

rewards

ofthenew

economy.ExecutivesummaryChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

4TheJanuary2026ChiefEconomists’Outlookopens

onacautiouslybrighter

notethanthe

pastyear.Although53%ofrespondentsstillexpect

the

global

outlooktoweakenintheyearahead,this

is

animprovementcomparedwiththe72%whoexpectedthisoutcomeinSeptember2025.Yet

even

astherelativeresilienceoftheglobaleconomy

to

shocks

inthepastyearhas

brightenedviews

oftheyear

ahead,therealso

remainsignificantuncertainties.Tradeand

investmenttensionsremaina

concern,

whileongoingartificial

intelligence(AI)adoption,

thoughproceedingunevenlyacross

geographies,

industriesandfirms,raiseshopes

for

meaningful

productivitygains.

Largedownsiderisks

remain

intheformofinflatedasset

prices,

increased

levels

ofpublicdebtand

highgeopolitical

uncertainty.Chiefeconomistssurveyedfrequently

listedthepotentialofa

burstingasset

bubbleas

well

as

rising

debt

pressuresamongthe

mostworrying

potentialmacroeconomicdevelopments.Chapter

1takesa

closer

lookat

bothsetsof

risks.

Chapter

2

explores

tradeand

investment

intheglobaleconomy

as

well

as

regionalgrowthand

policyexpectations.Thethirdchapterexplorestheexpected

productivityimpactfromtheadoptionand

deployment

ofAI,

aswellasthetechnology’s

potential

impacts

on

labour

markets.Source:Chief

Economists

Surveys

and

Outlooks.(May

2023–November2025).Note:ChiefEconomistsSurveysareconducted

7–8weeksahead

ofthe

launch

of

a

new

Chief

Economists’

Outlook.

In

May’s

edition,

chief

economists

lookedat

the

remainder

of

the

year.

In

other

editions,the

outlook

for

the

year

ahead

is

given.The

numbers

in

the

graphs

may

not

add

up

to

100%

because

figures

havebeenrounded

up/down.Figure1:The

global

economic

outlookLookingtotheyearahead,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy? Much

weaker

Somewhat

weaker

Unchanged

Somewhat

stronger

Much

strongerEconomicrisksoutlook100May23Jan24May24Sep

24Jan

25May

25Sep25Jan2634294231117693500501928476232053395437ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

5414117Share

of

respondents

(%)17285616139100

SignificantdecreaseDecrease

No

change

Increase

Significant

increaseAI-relatedstocksin

China2465Europeanstocks212159Gold3123

433Otherstocksinthe

US2929

43AI-relatedstocksinthe

US43 9

40Otherstocksin

China2445

30US

dollar5426

20Cryptocurrencies125021

18Globalmarketsinthe

pastyear

have

beendriven

by

aconcentratedUSequityboom

amongAI

leaders.

Thoughstillbelowthelevels

reachedat

the

peak

of

thebubble,valuationsofthetopsevenUS

techfirms(the“magnificentseven”,

M7)have

nowreachedthetop

10%oftheirhistoricaldistributions.1

Equitygainshavebeen

largelyconcentrated

inthese

techfirms:the

M7shareinthetotalindex

marketcapitalizationhasgrowntonearly35%,fromabout20%in

November2022.2

Yetotherassetsalso

saw

remarkabledevelopments.Whilebitcoinandother

cryptocurrenciesslumped,goldhassurged60%thisyearonthebackofhigh

uncertainty,supported

bysafe-havendemand,includingfromcentralbanks–itsbestannual

performancesince

1979.3

Meanwhile,theUSdollarhaltedthe

depreciation

pathithadentered

inApril,

postinggains

against

othermajor

currencies.4Figure2:Asset

developmentsLookingattheyearahead,whatdoyouexpecttohappentothevalueofthefollowingcategoriesofassets?Share

of

respondents

(%)Source:Chief

Economists

Survey.(November

2025).AssetvaluationsChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

6993Figure3:Breadth

of

impactInthecaseofasignificantdecrease,whatisyourexpectationofthebreadthofthe

impactonthe

global

economy?

WidespreadContainedGold1189

AI-related

stocks

in

China1189

Other

stocks

in

China17

83European

stocks17

83Cryptocurrencies2971

Other

stocks

in

the

US

6337USdollar66

34AI-related

stocks

in

the

US74

26Share

of

respondents

(%)Source:Chief

Economists

Survey.(November

2025).Intheyearahead,a

narrow

majority

of

52%ofchiefeconomistssurveyedexpectAI-relatedstocks

inthe

UStodecline,with9%

anticipatingasignificantdecline.

However,40%of

respondents

expectfurthergains,

highlightingthe

uncertaintyofthecurrentsituation.ComparedtoAI

stocks,otherstocks

inthe

USareviewedsomewhat

more

favourably,althougha

majorityof58%

also

expect

valuesto

plateauordecline.Concerns

aboutvaluations

inthe

UScontrastwithexuberanceaboutAI-relatedstocks

inChina.Overtwo-thirdsofchiefeconomistssurveyedanticipate

increases

invalue

intheyearahead.On

other

Chinesestocks,

respondentsaresplit,with45%anticipating

nochange

ineitherdirection.

Followingthe

strong

performanceof

Europeanstocks

in2025,a

majority

of59%ofrespondentsexpect

further

increasesintheyear

ahead.5Whilea

majorityof54%

expect

goldto

havereached

its

peak,46%ofrespondents

expect

its

valueto

increaseevenfurther

intheyearahead.World

Bankanalysisattributesthe2025

surgemainlytosafe-havendemandamid

geopoliticaltensionsand

policy

uncertainty,alongside

robustcentral

bankpurchasesthat

havesignificantlyincreasedtheirshareoftotaldemand

comparedwithadecadeago.6

The

precious

metaltraditionally

fulfilsa

portfoliodiversification

roleand

maycontinuetofulfilthis

roleagain

intheyear

ahead.7When

itcomestocryptocurrencies,62%anticipatefurtherdecreases

invalue

intheyearahead.Aftera

marketcrashon

10

Octoberexposedweaknesses

inthewidercryptocurrency

infrastructure,

bitcoin

lostaquarterof

itsvalueinjusttwo

months.8

Furthermore,a

majorityof54%expectthe

USdollarto

resume

itsdownward

trajectory.Adepreciatingdollaraffects

bothborrowers’andforeign

investors’balancesheets

andcouldeasefinancialconditionsfor

emerging

markets

by

loweringdebtservicing

burdens.9Valuationsand

investor

behaviour

raisethespectreofassetbubbles.Accordingto

Bankfor

InternationalSettlements

(BIS)

research,

USequitiesandgoldexhibit

patterns

historicallyassociatedwith

bubbleepisodes,surging

inlockstepforthefirsttime

inthe

last50years.10The

EuropeanCentral

Bank’s

(ECB)

latest

FinancialStability

Reviewalso

highlights

“stretched”valuationsofmajor

UStech

stocks,

driven

byfearofmissingout,

and

warns

that

negativesurprises,

including

politicalshocksaroundtheFederal

Reserve,couldtriggersharpcorrections.11

The

International

Monetary

Fund’s

(IMF)October

Global

FinancialStability

Reportaddsthat

ralliescentredonthe

magnificentsevensignificantlyraisethe

riskthatdisappointment

inafewfirms

could

reverberateacrossglobalequity

andbond

markets.12Atthesametime,thereare

credible

arguments

againstviewingtheAI

boomasa

bubble,which

temperthecaseforadownward

correction.Unliketheera,today’s

leadingAIfirmsarealready

highly

profitable,withstrongearnings

growth

underpinning

risingshare

pricesandsignificant

real

investment

indatacentresandinfrastructure.13

Price-to-earnings

multiplesfortop

AI

namessitat

levelsthatassume

multiple

years

ofuninterruptedgrowth,

but

remain

belowsome

peaks

reachedduringthebubble.14

The

OECD(Organisationfor

EconomicCo-operation

and

Development)and

IMF

both

notethatAI-relatedcapitalspending

has

materiallysupported

USgrowth

in2025,evenafter

stripping

out

front-

loadedactivity

linkedtotariffs.15ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

7Figure4:Timeframe

of

impactInthecaseofasignificantdecrease,whatisyourexpectationofthetimeframeoftheimpactonthe

global

economy?

Short-lived

Long

lastingUSdollar4456

AI-related

stocks

in

the

US

5941

Other

stocks

in

the

US

6832

Cryptocurrencies74

26

AI-related

stocks

in

China82

18

Gold82

18

European

stocks

8812

Other

stocks

in

China

919

Share

of

respondents

(%)Source:Chief

Economists

Survey.(November

2025).crises

likely,

unlikelyand

uncertain.

Inemerging

markets,almost

half(47%)sawthem

as

a

likely

outcomewhileonly9%saw

it

as

unlikely

in

theyearahead.Global

publicdebt

stood

at

a

record

$102trillion

in2024and

is

projectedto

riseabout

100%ofGDP(gross

domestic

product)by2029.18

Althoughonlyaccountingfor

lessthanathirdofglobal

debt,

levels

in

developingcountriesaregrowingtwiceasfast

since

2010.19

Whilesovereign

bond

markets

inadvancedeconomies

increasingly

relyon

price-sensitiveinvestors,growingdependenceon

domesticsourcesoffinancing

iscreating

newvulnerabilities

inemerging

markets.20Chiefeconomistswereaskedtoassessthelikelihoodofa

rangeof

macroeconomiccrisesrisks

inadvancedandemerging

economies

intheyearahead,

includingsovereigndebt

crises,

currencycrises,corporatedebtcrises,

bankingcrisesand

householddebtcrises.

Overall,

none

ofthe

potentialcriseswereconsideredto

be

likely

bya

majorityofthesurveyed

chiefeconomists.However,all

riskswereassessedto

carry

a

higher

likelihood

inemerging

marketscomparedtoadvancedeconomies.Inadvancedeconomies,viewsweresplit

equally

betweenthosewhoconsideredsovereigndebtChiefeconomistswereaskedtoassessthebreadth

ofimpactofa

significant

decrease

inthe

value

ofcertainassetsontheglobaleconomy.Thecentralityofthe

US

intheglobaleconomystands

out.16Almostthree-quartersofrespondents(74%)

expect

asignificantdecrease

inthevalue

of

USAI

assets

to

havewidespread

impactsontheglobaleconomy,

whileaquarterexpect

itto

be

more

contained.Toa

lesserextent

(63%),this

isalso

the

case

forotherstocks

inthe

US.Someestimatessuggestthatastockmarket

crash

inthe

US

could

generate

potential

losses

upto$35trillion.17

Two-thirdsofchiefeconomistssurveyedalsoforeseewidespreadimpactsshouldthe

USdollardecrease

significantly

invalue.When

itcomestogold,cryptocurrencies

or

stocks

inChinaor

Europe,the

majorityanticipatethe

impactofasignificantdecreaseto

be

contained.Chiefeconomistswerealsoaskedto

assessthetimeframeoftheexpected

impact.Asignificantdecrease

inthevalueofthe

USdollar

is

expected

bya

majorityofrespondents

(56%)to

have

a

long-

lasting

impact.Allotherassets,

includingAI-related

stocks

inthe

US,areanticipated

bythe

majorityofrespondentsto

haveshort-lived

impactsonthe

globaleconomy.DebtandspendingChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

8Figure5:Macroeconomic

risksLookingattheyearahead,howdoyouassessthelikelihoodofthefollowingmacroeconomicrisks?

Highly

unlikelyUnlikelyNeither

likely

nor

unlikelyLikelyHighly

likelySovereigndebtcrisesAdvanced

economies

33333

283

Emerging

markets

9

44

47CurrencycrisesAdvanced

economies

11531719

Emerging

markets

124741CorporatedebtcrisesAdvanced

economies

33344173

Emerging

markets

245621

BankingcrisesAdvanced

economies

6503114

Emerging

markets

324424

HouseholddebtcrisesAdvanced

economies

1156258

Emergingmarkets332569

Share

of

respondents

(%)Source:Chief

Economists

Survey.(November

2025).Currencycriseswereviewedas

unlikelyor

highlyunlikely

inadvancedeconomies

by64%

ofrespondents.

Measuresof

USdollarvolatility

recently

declinedto

levels

lastseen

beforethe

last

USpresidentialelection.21

Ontheotherhand,foremerging

markets,thissharedropstoonly

12%,

comparedto

41%whoviewed

itasa

likely

possibility.Adamaging

runontheArgentinianpesoinOctoberwasareminder

ofhowquicklycurrencycrisescould

manifest.22Viewsoncorporatedebt

criseswere

mixed.

Inadvancedeconomies,36%viewedthemasunlikely

or

highly

unlikely,comparedto20%whoviewedthemas

likelyor

highly

likely.

In

lateSeptember

2025,

UScar

partscompany

First

Brandsfiledfor

bankruptcy,

butcontagion

remained

limited.23Inemerging

markets,24%sawthem

as

unlikelycomparedto21%whoconsideredthema

likelyoutcome

intheyearahead.

Bankingcrises

inadvancedeconomieswereviewedas

unlikely

bymost

respondents(56%).

Inemerging

markets,thissharestoodat32%,comparedto

24%

ofthosewhoviewedthemas

likely.

Lebanon’songoing

turmoilservesasa

reminder

ofthe

potentialdangersofa

banking

crisis.24Inadvancedeconomies,

householddebtcriseswereseenas

unlikely

by56%

and

highly

unlikely

by

11%ofrespondents.

In

bothadvancedeconomies

andemerging

markets,

lessthan

10%ofrespondentsconsidered

householddebtcrises

a

likely

possibility

intheyearahead.ChiefEconomists’OutlookJanuary

9Chiefeconomistswerealsoaskedto

assessthestrategiesgovernmentsar