2026年第一季度全球天然气市场报告（英文版）-

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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issuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyand

demand,renewableenergytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuch

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affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits32MemberCountries,13Associationcountriesandbeyond.

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GermanyGreece

HungaryIreland

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Netherlands

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PAGE|3

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Abstract

Abstract

Naturalgasmarketscontinuedtorebalancein2025.GlobalLNG

supplyreturnedtodouble-digitgrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,supportedbytheramping-upofnewLNGliquefactionprojectsin

theUnitedStates,CanadaandAfrica.Thisstronggrowthis

graduallyeasingmarketfundamentalsandcontributingtoamoresecureandresilientglobalgasmarket.

GlobalLNGsupplygrowthissettoacceleratefurtherin2026,

fosteringastrongerincreaseinnaturalgasdemand,whichis

expectedtoreachanewall-timehigh.AlthoughtheLNGsupply

growthisreducingmarkettightness,geopoliticaltensionsand

weatherimpactsmaystillcausepricevolatility.Closeinternationalco-operationbetweenresponsibleproducersandconsumers

remainsimportanttoreinforcethearchitectureforsecureglobalgassupplies.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)continuesto

supportthisprocess,includingthroughthepermanentWorkingPartyonNaturalGasandSustainableGasesSecurity(GWP),establishedinlate2024.

ThiseditionofthequarterlyGasMarketReportprovidesathoroughreviewofmarketdevelopmentsin2025andanoutlookfor2026.

Thereportincludesasectiondedicatedtokeypoliciesundertakenin2025,withaspecialfocusonmarketreformsintroducedinfast-growingmarketsinAsia.

PAGE|4

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Tableofcontents

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 5

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025 12

Gasmarketupdate 29

Annex 66

PAGE|5

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Executivesummary

Executivesummary

PAGE|6

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Executivesummary

TheunfoldingLNGwaveisexpectedtodrivestrongergasdemandgrowthin2026

2025wasatransitionalyearfornaturalgasmarkets.While

supplyfundamentalsremainedtightinthefirsthalfoftheyear,

strongLNGproductiongrowthgraduallyeasedmarketconditionsstartingfromJuly.Followingarelativelystrongincreasein2024,globalgasdemandgrowthslowedmarkedlyin2025duetoacombinationofweakerindustrialactivityandrelativelyhighspotLNGpricesinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Marketopeningreforms

continuedtogatherpaceinAsiawhiletheEuropeanUnion

reachedahistoricdecisiontophaseoutRussiannaturalgasimportsbyNovember2027atthelatest.

GlobalLNGsupplygrowthissettoacceleratefurtherin2026toitsfastestpacesince2019.Thisisexpectedtofosterstronger

globalgasdemandgrowth,primarilydrivenbyChinaandemergingAsianmarkets.

GlobalLNGsupplyhitdouble-digitgrowthinthesecondhalfof2025,helpingtoeasemarketfundamentals

GlobalLNGproductionincreasedbyalmost7%(or38bcm)in2025,witharoundthree-quartersofthegrowthconcentratedinthesecondhalfoftheyear.ThePlaqueminesLNGplantinLouisianaaloneaccountedforover60%oftheincreaseinLNGsupply

throughtheyearandplayedakeyroleintheeasingofmarketconditions.

Supplyremainedrelativelytightinthefirsthalfof2025.While

globalLNGsupplyincreasedby4%(or10bcm)year-on-year(y-o-y)inthefirsthalfof2025,thiswaspartiallyoffsetbylowerRussianandNorwegianpipedgasdeliveriestoEurope.Inaddition,stronger

storageinjectionsintheEuropeanUnioncontributedtotighter

markets.ThiskeptEuropeanandAsianbenchmarkprices30%and40%,respectively,abovetheirlevelsinthesameperiodayearearlier.

GlobalLNGsupplygrowthacceleratedto10%(or28bcm)y-o-yinthesecondhalfof2025,whichgraduallyeasedmarket

conditionsstartingfromJuly.TTFandAsianspotLNGpricesfell

14%and17%respectivelyinH22025comparedwiththesame

periodin2024.ThecorrelationbetweenEuropeanandAsian

benchmarkpricesrosetoanewall-timehighof0.955in2025.Thisreflectstheincreasinglyinterconnectednatureofregionalmarkets

amidthegrowingshareofdestination-flexibleLNGsupplies.

Macroeconomicuncertaintyandtightersupplyinthe

firsthalfof2025weighedonglobalgasdemandgrowth

Followingarelativelystrongincreasein2024,naturalgasdemandgrowthslowedsignificantlyin2025.Preliminarydataindicate

thatglobalnaturalgasconsumptionincreasedbylessthan1%in2025.Incontrastwithpreviousyears,thisgrowthwaslargely

drivenbyEuropeandNorthAmericawhilenaturalgasdemandremainedsubduedinAsiaanddeclinedinEurasia.

PAGE|7

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Executivesummary

InOECDEurope,naturalgasdemandgrewby3%,partly

supportedbystrongergasburninthepowersectoramidlowerwindandhydropoweroutput.InNorthAmerica,naturalgas

consumptionincreasedbyanestimated1%,primarilydrivenbycolderwintertemperatures.Asiasnaturalgasdemandin2025

slowedtoitsweakestpacesince2022andremainedclosetoits2024levels.InChina,subduedgasdemandcombinedwitha

continuedincreaseindomesticgasproductionandhigherpipedgasdeliveriesfromRussia,ledtoasteepdeclineinLNGimports,whichdroppedby14%comparedwith2024.InEurasia,naturalgasdemanddeclinedbyaround2%amidmildwinterweather

conditionsinRussia.CombineddemandinAfricaandtheMiddleEastgrewbyanestimated2.5%,partlydrivenbyoil-to-gas

switchingdynamicsinthepowersector.

TheUnitedStatesledanewwaveoffinalinvestmentdecisionsinLNGliquefactioncapacityin2025

Despitemacroeconomicuncertainty,finalinvestmentdecisions(FIDs)inLNGliquefactionplantsremainedrobustin2025.Over90bcmperyearofLNGliquefactioncapacityhasbeengiventhe

go-ahead,making2025thesecondstrongestyearforLNGFIDs,after2019.

TheUnitedStatesisleadingthenewinvestmentcycle.Morethan80bcmperyearofLNGliquefactioncapacityreachedfinalinvestmentdecisionsintheUnitedStatesin2025anewall-timehighfortheUSLNGindustry.TheLNGprojectsincludeLouisiana

LNG,CorpusChristiTrain8&9,CP2phase1,RioGrandeLNG

Train4andPortArthurphase2.Thisnewwaveofprojectsis

expectedtofurthersolidifytheUnitedStates’positionasthe

world’slargestLNGsupplier.TheUnitedStatesmarketshareintheglobalLNGmarketisexpectedtoincreasefromaround25%in2025toaround33%bytheendofthedecade.

StrongLNGprojectdevelopmentwasaccompaniedbyan

increaseinLNGcontractingactivity.Morethan130bcmper

yearofLNGcontractsweresignedin2025representingthe

largestvolumecontractedinthepastdecade.TheUnitedStatesaloneaccountedforaroundhalfofthetotalcontractedvolumesin2025.LNGvolumescontractedbyEuropeanbuyersfrompost-FIDprojectsmorethandoubledcomparedwith2024,reachingnearly25bcmin2025.

Gasmarketliquiditycontinuedtoimprovein2025whilegasmarketreformsgatheredpaceinAsia

Naturalgastradingvolumesandhubliquidityreachednewall-timehighsacrossallkeymarketsin2025.IntheUnitedStates,gasvolumestradedonHenryHubroseby8%,whileinthe

EuropeanUnionandtheUnitedKingdomgastradeincreasedbyanestimated17%in2025.InNortheastAsia,tradinginkeygas

derivativesroseby35%despiteadeclineinChinasspotLNGprocurements.

PAGE|8

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Executivesummary

Thiscontinuedgrowthissupportedbyanumberoffactors,

includingtherisingshort-termvariabilityingas-to-powerdemandandthegrowinginterconnectivityofregionalgasmarkets.Thesedevelopmentsnecessitatemoresophisticatedhedgingstrategiesandmoreactivetradingalongtheforwardcurve.

InAsia,naturalgasmarketreformscontinuedtogatherpace.InChina,theNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission

introducednewmeasurestofostereffectivethird-partyaccessto

thegastransmissionsystem.Indiaintroducedasimplifiedunifiedgastransporttariffwiththeaimtoreducevariationsintransmissionpipelineutilisation.MalaysialaunchedaNaturalGasRoadmapthataimstoexpandthird-partyaccesstothecountrysgas

infrastructure.Singaporeestablishedanewgovernment-ownedentitytocentralisetheprocurementandsupplyofnaturalgasforthecountryspowergenerators.

TheEuropeanUnionreachedahistoricagreementtophaseoutRussiangasimports

Russiasfull-scaleinvasionofUkrainein2022disrupteditsdecade-longenergytieswiththeEuropeanmarket.Russianpipedgas

deliveriestotheEuropeanUnionfellby90%between2021and

2025.InDecember2025,theEuropeanUnionreachedahistoricagreementtofullyphaseoutRussiangasbyNovember2027atthelatestendingoverfivedecadesofgasdependence.Overall,theEUmeasuresareexpectedtoreduceRussiaspipedandLNG

deliveriestotheEuropeanUnionby33bcmbetween2025and

2028.Thiscouldcreateadditionalmarketspacefornon-RussianLNGsupplierstotheEuropeanUnion.

StrongerLNGsupplygrowthisexpectedtofosterhigherglobalnaturalgasdemandgrowthin2026

GlobalLNGsupplygrowthissettoacceleratefurtherin2026toitsfastestpacesince2019.Inourforecast,globalLNGproductionincreasesbymorethan7%(orover40bcm)in2026.North

Americaisagainsettodrivethisgrowth,withtheUnitedStates,CanadaandMexicoaccountingforover85%oftheincreaseinglobalLNGsupplyin2026.

Easingsupplyfundamentalsareexpectedtofosterstronger

globalgasdemandgrowth,drivenprimarilybyChinaand

emergingAsianmarkets.NaturalgasdemandintheAsiaPacificregionisexpectedtoincreaseby4%in2026,accountingfor

aroundhalfofglobalgasdemandgrowth.Naturalgasdemandis

forecasttoremainbroadlyflatinNorthAmerica,anditisexpectedtodeclineby1%inCentralandSouthAmericaamidimproving

hydropowergeneration.InEurope,thecontinuedexpansionof

renewablesisexpectedtoreducegasdemandby2%.InEurasia,gasconsumptionisforecasttoincreaseby3.5%assumingareturntoaverageweatherconditions.GasdemandinAfricaandthe

MiddleEastcombinedisexpectedtoincreaseby3.5%amidhighergasuseinindustryandthepowersector.

PAGE|9

Executivesummary

Naturalgasdemandgrowthslowedtobelow1%in2025acrosskeymarkets

bcm

4290

4270

4250

4230

Estimatedyear-on-yearchangesinnaturalgasdemandinkeyregions,2025

Lowerwindandhydropower

outputsupportedEuropean

gasdemandgrowth

Oil-to-gasswitchingin

thepowersector

ColderwinterdroveupgasdemandinNorthAmerica

Weakerindustrialactivity

andhighspotLNGprices

slowedgasdemandgrowth

inAsia

MildwinterweighedonEurasia'sgasdemand

Demandgrowthin

Brazilwasoffsetby

declinesinother

markets

2024AsiaEurasiaCentralandSouthAmerica

NorthAmericaEuropeAfricaand

MiddleEast

2025

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Executivesummary

CorrelationbetweenAsianandEuropeangaspricesrosetoanewall-timehighin2025

CorrelationbetweenTTFmonth-aheadandPlattsJKMpricesin2025

TTFmonth-ahead(USD/MBtu)

18

Correlationfactor:0.955

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

024681012141618PlattsJKM(USD/MBtu)

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCMEGroup(2026),

DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements;

S&PGlobalInc(2026),

S&PGlobalCommodityInsights.

PAGE|11

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Executivesummary

ImprovingLNGavailabilityisexpectedtofosterstrongergasdemandgrowthin2026

Year-on-yearchangeinkeypipednaturalgastradeandglobalLNGsupply,2019-2026

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

Post-lockdown

recoveryUnfolding

LNGwave

LNGflood

Gradualrebalancing

Covidpandemic

Gassupplyshock

20192020202120222023202420252026(estimate)(forecast)

aRussianpipedgastoEuropeaOtherpipelineimportstoEuropeaRussianpipedgastoChina

uCentralAsiatoChinaaGlobalLNGsupplyOTotaly-o-ychange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

PAGE|13

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

Ayearoftransition:Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

Naturalgasmarketsaretransitioningtolooserfundamentalsfromthetightconditionsthatemergedwiththe2022-2023gassupplyshock.ThissectionofthequarterlyGasMarketReportprovidesanoverviewofthekeynaturalgasmarkettrendsandpoliciesthatemergedin2025.

GaspricesinbothAsiaandEuropefacedchangingpressurescomparingthefirsthalfof2025withthesecond.Whiletighter

supplyfundamentalsdroveupbothTTFandPlattsJKMinH12025,theyfellwellbelowtheir2024levelsinthesecondhalfoftheyearamidthestrongincreaseinglobalLNGsupply.Thecorrelation

betweenAsianandEuropeangaspricesincreasedtoanall-timehighof0.955.Thisreflectstheincreasinglyintertwinednatureof

regionalmarketsamidthegrowingshareofdestination-flexibleLNGsupplies.IntheUnitedStates,HenryHubpricesrecoveredtotheirfive-yearaverageafterreachingunsustainablylowlevelsin2024.

Naturalgastradingvolumesandhubliquidityreachednewall-timehighsacrossallkeymarketsin2025.Thiscontinuedgrowthissupportedbyanumberoffactors,includingtherisingshort-term

variabilityingas-to-powerdemandandthegrowinginterconnectivityofregionalgasmarkets.Thesedevelopmentsnecessitatemore

sophisticatedhedgingstrategiesandmoreactivetradingalongtheforwardcurve.

LNGcontractingsurgedtoitshighestlevelinourrecords,highlightingitsroleasanessentiallong-termrisk-sharing

mechanismbetweensellersandbuyers.Morethan130bcm/yrofLNGcontractswereconcludedin2025,withanaveragedurationofaround15years.ThiswaspartlydrivenbythestrongmomentumbehindLNGprojectdevelopment.Over90bcm/yrofnewLNGliquefactioncapacitywassanctionedin2025,makingitthesecondstrongestyearonrecordforliquefactionFIDs.IntheUnitedStatesalonemorethan80bcm/yrofLNGliquefactioncapacityreached

FID–anall-timehighfortheUSgasindustry.

InAsianaturalgasmarketreformscontinuedtogatherpace.InChinatheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission(NDRC)introducednewmeasurestofostereffectivethird-partyaccessto

thegastransmissionsystem.Indiaintroducedasimplifiedunifiedgastransporttariffwiththeaimofreducingdistortionsin

transmissionpipelineutilisation.MalaysialaunchedaNaturalGasRoadmap,whichaimstoexpandthird-partyaccesstothecountry’sgasinfrastructure.Singaporeestablishedanewgovernment-

ownedentity(Gasco)tocentralisetheprocurementandsupplyofnaturalgasforthecountry’spowergenerators.

TheEuropeanUnionreachedanhistoricagreementin

December2025tophaseoutRussiannaturalgasimportsbyNovember2027atthelatest.Overall,theregulationisexpectedtoreduceRussia’spipedandLNGdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnionby33bcmbetween2025and2028.Thiscouldcreateadditionalmarketspacefornon-RussianLNGsupplierstoEUcountries.

PAGE|14

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

2025wasthesecondstrongestyearonrecordforLNGliquefactionFIDs

FinalinvestmentdecisionsfornewLNGliquefactioncapacity,2014-2025

bcm/yr

100

80

60

40

20

0

201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

NigeriaSenegalRussiaOmanMozambique

MexicoMalaysiaIndonesiaGabonRepublicoftheCongo

CanadaCameroonAustraliaArgentinaUnitedArabEmirates

回Qatar.UnitedStates

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|15

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

NaturalgaspricesstrengthenedacrossallkeymarketsinH12025,beforesofteninginH2

Followingtheall-timehighsreachedin2022,naturalgasprices

moderatedsignificantlyacrossallkeymarketsduring2023-2024.Thistrendreversedin2025.Tightersupplyfundamentalsprovided

upwardpressureonAsianspotLNGandEuropeanhubpricesinthefirsthalfoftheyear,beforesofteninginH22025amidimprovingLNGsupplyavailability.IntheUnitedStates,strongerdemandgrowth

supportedpricerecoveryfromtheunsustainablylow2024levels.

CorrelationbetweenAsianandEuropeanpricesreachedanewall-timehighreflectingtheincreasinglyglobalisednatureofnaturalgasmarkets.

InEuropetheaverageTTFmonth-aheadpricewas9%higherin2025thanin2024,averagingjustbelowUSD12/MBtuin2025,morethandoublethefive-yearaveragebetween2016and2020.Highergas

demand,togetherwithstrongstorageinjectionsandreducedpiped

gasflows(bothfromRussiaandNorway)droveupaverageTTF

pricesby40%y-o-yinH12025.Incontrast,averageTTFmonth-

aheadpricesstood14%belowtheir2024levelsinH22025amid

strongLNGinflows,improvingwindavailabilityandmildweather

conditionsinQ4.Pricevolatilitycontinuedtosoftenin2025and

averaged40%albeitstandingalmost30%aboveitsten-year

averagebetween2010and2019.MonthlyvolatilityreacheditshighestlevelinJunedrivenbygeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEast.

ImprovingLNGavailabilitytogetherwithmilderwinterweathersoftenedpricevolatilityinQ4toitslowestlevelsince2017.

AsianspotLNGpricesfollowedasimilartrajectory.AveragePlattsJKMpricesstood2%higherin2025comparedwith2024toaveragejustaboveUSD12/MBtu,almostdoubletheirfive-yearaverage

between2016and2020.StrongercompetitionforLNGfromEuropedroveupJKMpricesbyalmost30%y-o-yinH12025,beforedecliningbymorethan15%y-o-yinthesecondhalftheyearamidimproving

LNGavailability.ThespreadbetweenTTFandJKMprices

tightenedfromanaverageofnearUSD0.95/MBtuin2024tojust

USD0.23/MBtuin2025,makingEuropemoreattractiveonanetbackbasisformajorLNGsuppliersintheAtlanticBasin.Consequently,

EuropesLNGimportsrosetoanall-timehighin2025,whichwas

necessarytorefilltheregionsvastundergroundstoragespace.ThecorrelationbetweenTTFandPlattsJKMreachedanewall-time

highof0.955.Thisreflectstheincreasinglyintertwinednatureof

regionalmarketsamidthegrowingshareofdestination-flexibleLNGsupplies.Oil-indexedLNGcontractsoscillatedinanestimatedrangeofUSD10-12/MBtu,averagingaround10%belowtheir2024levels.

IntheUnitedStatesHenryHubmonth-aheadpricesroseby50%

comparedwith2024toanaverageofUSD3.6/MBtu,standing3%

abovethefive-yearaveragebetween2019and2023.Stronger

demandgrowthtogetherwithhigherstorageinjectionssupportedtherecoveryinUSgasprices.Short-termpricevariabilityremainedaboveaveragedrivenbycoldspellsinQ1andQ4,aswellasstrongergas-to-powerdemandvolatilitythroughtheyear.

PAGE|16

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

Afterstronggainsinthefirsthalfoftheyear,AsianandEuropeanpricessoftenedinH22025

ChangeinAsianandEuropeannaturalgaspricescomparedwith2024averagepricelevel

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

01-Jan-25

15-Jan-25

29-Jan-25

12-Feb-25

26-Feb-25

12-Mar-25

26-Mar-25

09-Apr-25

23-Apr-25

07-May-25

21-May-25

04-Jun-25

18-Jun-25

02-Jul-25

16-Jul-25

30-Jul-25

13-Aug-25

27-Aug-25

10-Sep-25

24-Sep-25

08-Oct-25

22-Oct-25

05-Nov-25

19-Nov-25

03-Dec-25

17-Dec-25

31-Dec-25

TTFPlattsJKM

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCMEGroup(2026),

DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements;

S&PGlobalInc(2026),

S&PGlobalCommodityInsights.

PAGE|17

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

Globalgastradingvolumesreachedanall-timehighin2025

Naturalgashubsenablemarketparticipantstotradegasinopen,competitivegasmarkets.Tradedproductsrangefromshort-term

contractstoproductswithadeliveryhorizonseveralyearsahead

(derivatives).Derivativesallowmarketparticipantstodevelop

sophisticatedriskmanagementstrategies.Hubliquidityensuresthatdemandfrommarketparticipantsismatchedbysupplyina

time-andcost-efficientmannerwithoutcausingsignificantprice

changes.Thechurnrateindicatesliquidity,measuringhowmanytimesaunitofgasisexchangedbeforebeingdeliveredtoend

consumers.Achurnrateabove10usuallyindicatesaliquidmarket.

Followingadeclineinhubliquidityin2022amidsoaringmargin

requirements,naturalgastradingvolumesstartedtorecoverin

2023.Thistrendcontinuedin2024and2025,withnaturalgas

tradingvolumesandchurnratesrisingtoall-timehighsacrossallkeymarkets.Thisstronggrowthhasbeendrivenbyanumberoffactors.Theshort-termvariabilityofgas-to-powerdemand

continuedtoincreaseacrosstheEuropeanandUSmarkets,

supportinghighertradingvolumes.Thegrowinginterconnectivityofregionalgasmarketsisalsosupportedbyadditionaltradingactivity,withglobalportfolioplayersactivelyhedgingonhubsoutsidetheirregionofphysicaldelivery.

IntheUnitedStatesgasvolumestradedonHenryHubroseby

8%in2025y-o-ytotheirhighestlevelinourrecords.Thechurnrateaveraged60throughtheyear,itshighestlevelsinceatleast2014.

ThisgrowthwaslargelyconcentratedinH12025,withtraded

volumesrisingbynearly15%y-o-y.Monthlytradedvolumes

reachedanall-timehighofover5500bcminDecember.Cold

weatherboostednaturalgasdemand,necessitatingmoreshort-

term-focusedtradingoperationstooptimisedeliveriesamidasharpincreaseindemand.Inaddition,therisingshort-termvariabilityofgas-to-powerdemandprovidedadditionalincentivesforgastradingduringtheyear.

GastradedvolumesintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnited

Kingdomrosebyanestimated17%in2025toanall-timehigh.

ThisgrowthwaslargelydrivenbytheDutchTTF,aloneaccountingforaround80%ofincrementaltradevolumes.Consequently,its

shareoftotalEuropeangastradefirmedupatjustover80%in

2025.Monthlytradedvolumesreachedanall-timehighofaround

900bcminFebruary,whenthecombinationofcoldweatherand

lowwindoutputboostedEUandUKgasdemandbyaround20%

andrequiredanoptimisationofpositionsthroughshort-termtradingoperations.ThechurnrateofthecombinedEUandUKgasmarketsroseby15%in2025tocloseto25–itshighestlevelonrecord.

InAsiatradinginICEJKMderivativesroseby35%in2025despiteadeclineinspotLNGprocurementsbyChina.Thisindicatesmorepronouncedhedgingactivityalongtheforwardcurveamidgreaterdemanduncertainty.ThechurnrateremainedlowintheJKMarea,althoughimprovedcomparedwith2025,risingtonear5.

PAGE|18

Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

Liquiditycontinuedtoimproveacrossallkeymarketsin2025

Estimatedtradedvolumesandchurnratesacrosskeynaturalgasmarkets,2020-2025

60000

Tradedvolumes(bcm)

55000

50000

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

UnitedStates

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

25

20

15

10

5

0

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

NortheastAsia*

5

4

Churnrate

3

2

1

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

0

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026

TradedvolumesChurnrate

IEA.CCBY4.0.

*NortheastAsia=China,JapanandKorea.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonvarioussources,includingCME(2025),

VolumeandOpenInterest;

ICE(2025),

ReportCenter;

LondonEnergyBrokers’Association(2025),

Monthly

VolumeReports.

GasMarketReport,Q1-2026Keygaspoliciesandmarkettrendsin2025

PAGE|19

NorthAmericaandtheMiddleEastledtheincreaseinLNGcontractsin2025

LNGcontractingcontinuedtoexperiencestrongmomentumin2025.TotalLNGcontractedvolumesreached130bcm,

standing38%abovetheirfive-yearaverage.Thisalsorepresentsthelargestvolumerecordedoverthepastdecade.Post-FID

projectsaccountedfor85%ofthetotalvolumesconcludedin

2025.TheaveragedurationoftheLNGcontractssignedin2025wasaround15years,highlightingthecrucialro