mckinsey -2035年汽车软件与电子市场展望报告 The automotive software and electronics market through 2035

Mcsey

&company

Automotive&AssemblyPractice

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough2035

Despitechallengessuchasadvancedautonomousdrivingdelays,ourlatestresearchrevealssignificantgrowthareas—somepoweredbyAI—intheautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough2035.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeefortbyDominikHepp,MartinKellner,andSörenJautelat,withMichaelGuggenheimerandTomásAloise,

representingviewsfromMcKinsey’sAutomotive&AssemblyPracticeandtheMcKinseyCenterforFutureMobility.

January2026

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough20352

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketis

transitioningtozonalandcentralcomputingarchitecturesthathelpenablemorescalable,software-definedvehicles(SDVs)thatsupportadvancedfeaturessuchasover-the-airupdates,enhancedconnectivity,andgenAIintegration.1

Otherfactorsinfluencingmarketgrowthandinvestmentincludechangingcustomerpreferences;regulationsthatprioritizesafetyandpermithigherautonomous-driving

(AD)levels;andtechnologyinnovationssuchashigh-performancecomputers,advancedsoftware,andlightdetectionandranging(LiDAR)sensors.

GenAIisacceleratinginnovationasautonomousdriving,connectedvehicles,electrification,andsharedmobility

(ACES)continuestoreshapetheautomotiveindustry.2

Infact,incontrasttotheoverallvehiclemarket,whichisgrowingbyaround1.0percentCAGRannually,theglobalautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketcouldgrowby4.5percentCAGRandreach$519billionby2035.Thispotentialdisparityingrowthreflectshowvitalsoftware

andelectronicsmaybetoachievingdifferentiationamidelectrification,nonownershipmodels,andevolving

consumerexpectations.Nonetheless,viewingthis

growthmoregranularlyandwithinthebroadervehiclemarketrevealsthatsoftwareandelectronicsgrowthis

nothomogenousandthatconsiderablechallengesanduncertaintiespersist.

Forexample,continuedadvancementsincapabilitieshavebeenaccompaniedbysignificantdelaysinthedeploymentoflevel

3orlevel4drivingautomation.3Thesedelayshavetempered

expectationsforfullyautonomousvehiclestobedeployedin

thenearterm.Likewise,whileelectricvehicle(EV)penetration

hasgrownsinceMcKinsey’slastautomotiveelectronicsand

softwaremarketoutlookin2023,regulatorydemanddrivers

aroundEVshavechangedconsiderably.BecausenewEV

platformsareoftenthefirstadopterofanewelectricand

electronic(E/E)architecture,delaysinEVplatformsoftenalsodelaytheintroductionofadvancedE/Earchitectures.WhilefewOEMshavelaunchedlevel3–capablevehiclesinrecentyears,overalldisseminationofautonomousvehiclescapableoflevel3orhigherisslowerthanexpectedpreviously.Thus,whileOEMscontinuetomakelong-terminvestmentsinfullyautonomous

vehicles,theyhaveshiftedtheirinvestmentfocustomore

immediateopportunities,suchasadvanceddriverassistancesystems(ADAS)andconnectedservices.

Allofthesedevelopmentshavereducedoveralldemand

inthesoftwareandelectronicsmarket.Further,itis

importanttonotethatwhileourresearchshowsadvanced

architecturesandADAScouldpromotegrowthforthe

automotivesoftwareandelectronicsindustry,various

factorscouldcomeintoplaythatmayalterthefuture

landscape.Disruptionsindemand,forexample,could

delaylaunchofnewplatformsaswellastheadvanced

technologiesthatsupportthem,potentiallyleadingto

stagnationwithintheindustry.IntheEuropeanmarket,theoutlookcouldshiftascostpressuresmountformaterialsaswellasdevelopmentefforts.

Atthesametime,however,infotainmentsystemcomplexityanddisseminationhaveincreaseddemandforthese

systems,andgenAIhasyieldedsignificantgainsincomplexfeaturesforvehicles.Thus,despitesetbacksandbroader

uncertainty,software,electronics,andgenAIhaveemergedascriticalenablersofinnovation,transformingvehicle

developmentandcustomerexperienceandbusinessmodelsforOEMsandsuppliers.

Ourlatestresearchprovidesanupdatedperspectiveonthe

modeledtrajectoryoftheautomotivesoftwareandE/Emarketthrough2035(seesidebar,“Howwederivedourinsights”).

1“Gettingreadyfornext-generationE/Earchitecturewithzonalcompute,”McKinsey,June14,2023.

2“TheriseofedgeAIinautomotive,”McKinsey,August25,2025.

3AccordingtotheSocietyofAutomationEngineers(SAE),therearesixlevelsofdrivingautomation,fromlevel0(nodrivingautomation)tolevel5(fulldrivingautomation);see“Taxonomyanddefinitionsfortermsrelatedtodrivingautomationsystemsforon-roadmotorvehicles,”SAE,March29,2021.Level3(conditionaldrivingautomation)isavailableundercertainweatherandtrafficconditions,butthehumandrivermustmonitortheroadandremainalerttotakecontrolasneeded.Level4(highdrivingautomation)isalsoavailableonlyundercertainconditionsoralongspecifiedroutes,buthumanoccupantsofavehicledonotneedtobealertortakecontrol.

Howwederivedourinsights

Thequalitativeresearchthatinformsthisarticleincludesinter-

viewswithexecutivesintheautomotivesectorandinsightsfromtheexpertswithinMcKinsey’sAutomotive&AssemblyPractice.Wegleanedquantitativemarketinsightsusingbottom-upmarketmodelsforeachofthecorecomponentsintheautomotivesoft-

wareandelectricalandelectronicmarket,includingthefollowing:

—softwaredevelopment,integration,verification,andvalidation

—controlunits,includingelectronic,domain,zonal,andcentralcontrolunits

—sensors

—powerelectronics

—othercomponents(harnesses,controls,switches,anddisplays)

Marketsizeisdeterminedbythenumber(pervehicle)ofagiven

component,itsaveragesellingprice,andthenumberofvehicles

producedinayear.Toensureeachmodelisappropriatelygranular,weclassifymarketsbyautomotivedomains(forexample,ad-

vanceddriverassistancesystems,body,andinfotainment)aswellascharacteristicssuchasvehiclesegment,OEMtype,orSocietyofAutomationEngineerslevel.Thenumberofvehiclesproducedeachyearcomesfromaseparatemodelthatincorporatesdata

fromthelatestMcKinseyinsights.Theautomotivesoftware

marketsizeiscalculatedusingtheworkforceinvolvedinsoft-

ware-relatedactivitiesthroughoutthesupplychain,thenumberandvariantsofvehicleplatformsatOEMsandsuppliersandanyalterationstothoseplatforms.Theefficiencygainsandcostre-

ductionsfromgenAIinsoftwaredevelopmentaresignificantandloweredtheoverallmarketsizemorethanexpected.

Allresearchinthisarticleappliestolightvehicles,includingpas-sengercarsandlightcommercialvehicles.

VehiclesalesbySAElevel.AccordingtoMcKinseyanalysis,

vehicleswithlevel2ADAScouldmakeup52percentofvehiclesalesby2030.Safetyregulationsthatrequirenewvehicles

tohavemoreofthesensorsusedinlevel2ADASwilllikely

spurmuchofthismarketgrowth;asadoptionincreases,the

overallcostoftherequiredhardwareandsoftwarewilllikely

decrease.OEMsnowofferlevel2ADASpackagesatamuch

moreaffordablepricethaninthepast,forexample.Meanwhile,increasingcustomerpreferenceforandwillingnesstobuy

AD-capablevehiclescouldboostsalesofvehicleswithlevel

3ADto16percentofvehiclesalesby2035,comparedwith

lessthanonepercentin2025.Inanticipationofthisshift

incustomerpurchasingpatterns,technologyreadinessis

increasingasOEMsdevelopsoftwareandalgorithmstoenablelevel3ADcapabilities.Incontrast,only1percentofvehicle

salesin2035willcomefromvehiclescapableoflevel4ADandabove(Exhibit1).

Vehiclesequippedwithadvanceddriverassistancesystemsandautonomousdrivingcouldaccountfornearly70percentofvehiclesalesby2035.

Level4+

Level3

Level2

Levels0and1

VehiclesalesbySAE1level,%ofvehicles

<1<11

/

36

5

/

16

52

52

64

43

31

202520302035

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

1SocietyofAutomotiveEngineers.

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityCurrentTrajectoryscenario

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough20354

McKinsey&Company

AI-enabledsoftwarefunctions.AIhasthepotentialto

improvesoftwarefeaturesthatmakeup70percentof

thetotalmarketsize.ThemarketshareforADASand

infotainmentissignificantlyhigher—duetoend-to-endlearningforlevel2andaboveADASandvoicecontrolorpersonalizationinin-vehicleinfotainment,forexample.

Nonetheless,AIalsoshowspotentialtoimprovethefunctionalityoffeaturesinotherdomains,suchasin

body(57percentofthemarketin2035),powertrain(49

percent),andconnectedservices(41percent).Someof

thekeyfeaturesAIcouldenableincluderangeestimation,lightingpersonalization,predictivemaintenance,and

intrusiondetection.Giventhehighshareofsafety-relevantbutalsoreal-timecapablesoftwareinchassiscontrol(in

electronicstabilityprograms,forexample),thedegreeofAIenablementislower,butsomeusecasesdoexist,suchasadaptivesuspension(Exhibit2).

AIcouldimproveorenablenumeroussoftwarefunctionsby2035,especiallyinadvanceddriverassistancesystems,automateddriving,andinfotainment.

LikelyshareofsoftwaremarketabletobeaddressedbyAI(perdomain),%

20252035

TotalAIsoftwaremarketenhancement

59

78

Advanceddriverassistance

systemsandautomateddriving

79

95

Infotainment

94

95

Bodyandcomfort

58

57

Powertrain

33

49

Connectedservicesandsecurity

40

41

Chassis

31

29

Note:PercentageofaddressabilityisdefinedastheextenttowhichAIcouldimproveexistingsoftwarefunctions(forexample,usingAIinthedevelopmentprocessbyhavingAIactivelywritecode)ortowhichAIcanenablenewfunctions(forexample,predictivemaintenance)ineachmarketdomain.

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough20355

McKinsey&Company

OverallautomotivesoftwareandE/Emarket.Ourmodelingfor2025–35CAGRintheoverallmarketreflectsthe

integrationofAItoenhanceADAScapabilities,because

thepotentialCAGRsforsoftwareandpowerelectronics

componentsfaroutpaceCAGRsforcontrolunitsand

sensors.MorepowerelectronicswilllikelybeneededasEVsalesrise,givenEVs’greaterrelianceonthesecomponentscomparedtointernalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicles.

SDVsandAI-poweredcapabilitiescouldalsocontribute

toincreasesinthesoftwaremarket.ThecentralandzonalarchitecturesthatenableSDVsrequireless-complex

(andless-costly)wiringharnesses;however,becausethenecessarycontrolunitshaveincreasedprocessingpower,theycancarryaddedcost.Furthergrowthinthecontrol

unitmarketmaybepossibleifsynergiesinhardwarecentralizationlagorfailtomaterialize(Exhibit3).

Between2025and2035,overallautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketgrowthcouldreach4.5percentCAGR.

CAGR

2025–35,%+4.5

AutomotivesoftwareandE/E1market,$billion

Overall

Softwaredevelopment

+10.2

Softwareintegration,verification,andvalidationservices

+11.9

Controlunits2

+4.0

Sensors

+2.8

Powerelectronics3

+9.7

67

Others(boardnet,harness,andinfotainment)+0.3

519

428

42

45

27

336

26

206

14

169

139

45

41

34

53

39

21

106

103

107

202520302035

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.Appliestolightvehicles,includingpassengercarsandlightcommercialvehicles.1Electrical/electronic.

2Hardwareonly.

3Includesonboardchargers,DC/DCconverters,andhigh-voltageinverters;excludesbatterycells.

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityCurrentTrajectoryscenario

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough20356

McKinsey&Company

Softwaremarket.Delaysindeployinghighlyautonomous

vehicleshasshiftedwhichsegmentsoftheautomotive

softwaremarketcouldgrow(andbyhowmuch)between

2025and2035.ThelargestpotentialgainsinCAGRremaintiedtoADASandAD,whichwillstilllikelymakeuparound

halfofthemarketby2035;thepotential2025–35CAGR

forthissegmentisnearly20percent,comparedwitha

2019–30CAGRofaround12percent.Notably,the2025–35CAGRforoperatingsystemsandmiddlewarecouldreach

around16percent.Thisgrowthreflectsthecomplexities

involvedindevelopingADAS,includingthemuchgreater

andmorecomplexcodingandcomplexintegrationrequiredfordomaincontrolunits(DCUs),centralcontrolunits

(CCUs),andzonecontrolunits(ZCUs)relativetocodingforelectroniccontrolunits(ECUs).ADASandADsoftwarewilllikelyrepresentthelargestsoftwaremarketin2030and

beyond,stemmingfromnotonlythedevelopmentofthe

softwarebutalsotheverificationandvalidationofsoftwarefeatures,aswellasOEMs’integrationofsoftwaresystem

componentsfromvarioussupplierswithvehicleelectronicssystemsandthevehicleoverall(Exhibit4).

Marketshareforautonomousdrivingandadvanceddriverassistance

systemsandinfotainmentsoftwarecouldreachabout70percentby2035.

CAGR

2025–35,%

Totalautomotivesoftwaremarket,$billion

109

19

3

50

72

16

2

27

39

13

2

25

19

9

13

13

7

Overall+10.8

Powertrainandchassis

+3.8

Bodyandenergy

+2.1

ADAS1andAD2

+19.4

Infotainment,connectivity,security,andconnectedservices

+6.8

Operatingsystemandmiddleware

+16.2

3

202520302035

Note:Figuresdonotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.Softwareincludesfunctiondevelopment,integration,andverificationorvalidation.1Advanceddriverassistancesystems.

2Autonomousdriving.

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityCurrentTrajectoryscenario

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough20357

McKinsey&Company

E/Earchitecturemarket.DevelopmentinACESrequires

theadvancedin-vehiclecomputationalcapabilitiesthat

advancedE/Earchitecturesenable.4Autonomousdriving,forexample,requiresthedevelopmentofnew,complex,

andsafety-relatedsoftwarealgorithmsalongsidehigh-

performancecomputerscapableofanalyzingmassive

amountsofsensordatainrealtime.DelaysinEVplatformshavedelayedadoptionofadvancedE/Earchitectures.

Nonetheless,by2035,thesharesofE/Earchitecture

productioncouldbenearlytheinverseofwhattheyare

today:Generation-threedistributedarchitectures’current70percentshareofproductioncoulddeclinebynearly68

percent,whileproductionofgeneration-fourdomain-basedarchitecturesandgeneration-fiveZCUarchitecturescouldaccountformorethan75percentofproduction(Exhibit5).

4“Gettingreadyfornext-generationE/Earchitecturewithzonalcompute,”McKinsey,June14,2023.

By2035,thebulkofelectrical/electronicarchitecturesproducedmaybeadvanceddesigns.

Shareofelectrical/electronic(E/E)architecturebasedonproductionvolume,%

23

47

71

44

41

33

27

12

2

202520302035

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityCurrentTrajectoryscenario

McKinsey&Company

Generation3andprior(distributed)

Generation4(domainfullanddomainlight)

Generation5(zonalandzonalwithfusion)

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough20358

Controlunitmarket.AccordingtoMcKinseyanalysis,thecontrolunitmarketsizecouldrisebetween2030and

2035.ThemarketsizeforDCUsusedinthesafetyandautonomousdrivingdomainscouldnearlydoublewhilealsorisingininfotainment.Thepotentialincreasein

cross-domaincontrolunits—zonalandcentral—couldbe

substantial,morethantriplingbetween2030and2035,asproductionofgeneration-fiveE/Earchitecturesthatrequirethesecontrolsrises.Meanwhile,theECUmarketsizeinthebodydomainmayremainrelativelysteadywhiledecreasingslightlyinallotherdomains,becauseECUsareincreasinglyreplacedbyDCUsandCCUs(Exhibit6).

Withtheexceptionofelectroniccontrolunits,allcontrolmarketscouldexperiencesignificantgrowthbetween2030and2035.

Controlunitmarketbydomain,$billion

Body

Chassis

Powertrain

Infotainment

SafetyandADAS/AD1Centralcontrol

Zonalcontrol

2030

104

26

10

56

3

32

1

2

23

27

27

54

9

ECU2DCU3CCU4ZCU5

2035

91

85

4

2

20

2

8

31

34

17

46

13

21

7

ECUDCUCCUZCU

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.1Advanceddriverassistancesystemsandautomateddriving.2Electroniccontrolunit.

3Domaincontrolunit.4Centralcontrolunit.5Zonecontrolunit.

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityCurrentTrajectoryscenario

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough20359

McKinsey&Company

Sensormarket.Between2025and2035,thepowertrainsensormarketcoulddeclinegradually,giventhatEVs

requirefewerandlower-costsensorsperpowertrainthanICEvehicles.Additionally,ICEvehiclesensorsaretypicallyexpensivetoproduce—especiallynitrogen-oxideand

fuelratiosensors.Meanwhile,theLiDARsensorsmarketcouldseeanexceptionalspikeingrowthasADASandADadoptionincreases.Inourexperience,thereisgeneral

consensusamongOEMsthatforlevel3andhigherAD

systemstofunctionreliably,LiDARsensors(potentiallymultiplepervehicle)areessential.Duetotheirhigh

resolutionandaccuracy(greaterthaneithercamerasorradars),LiDARsensorscandetectandclassifyobjectsreliably,evenindifficultlightingandweatherconditions.

ThepotentialdeclineinpowertrainsensorswouldbelinkedtoadeclineintheICEvehiclemarket.Nonetheless,demandforICEvehiclesensorscouldstilloutpacedemandforEV

sensors;asnotedabove,ICEvehiclescontainmoresensorsthantheirelectriccounterparts(Exhibit7).

Between2025and2035,lightdetectionandrangingsensorgrowthcouldbesubstantial,whiletheoverallsensormarketcouldexperiencesteadygrowth.

Totalautomotivesensormarket,$billion

CAGR

2025–35,%

45

8

5

2

2

7

34

5

4

41

7

5

2

6

9

8

4

5

5

3

7

10

11

4

2025

20302035

Overall+2.8

Powertrain

–4.0

Chassis

–0.4

Body

+2.6

LiDAR1

+11.1

Camera

+3.5

Radar

+8.0

Safety

–1.3

Note:Figuresmaynotsumtototals,becauseofrounding.1Lightdetectionandranging.

Source:McKinseyCenterforFutureMobilityCurrentTrajectoryscenario

Theautomotivesoftwareandelectronicsmarketthrough203510

McKinsey&Company

Conclusion

Accordingtoourresearch,ultimatelytwotrendscould

shapethefutureofautomotiveelectronicsandsoftware:

theshifttowardzonalandcentralE/Earchitecturesand

theincreasingintegrationofgenAIintovehicles.Zonal

andcentralarchitecturessimplifyvehicledesign,reduce

complexity,andenablescalability,whilegenAIcanhelp

enhancein-carexperienceswithadvancedpersonalization,predictivecapabilities,andsafetyfeatures.Beyondthe

vehicle,genAIisloweringcostsandshorteningR&Dcyclessignificantlyforsoftwaredevelopment,enablingfaster

innovationandmore-efficientresourceallocation.5

Toadapt,OEMsmustaligntheirstrategieswiththesetrends.How?BysimplifyingE/Earchitectures,fosteringcross-

functionalcollaboration,andbuildingend-to-endsoftwarecapabilities.LeveraginggenAItoolscanfurtherenhancedevelopmentefficiency,reducecosts,andacceleratetimetomarket.AndthemoreAI-centricanADASandADstackis,themoreitwilldetermineavehicle’sE/Earchitecture.

Largeperceptionandplanningmodelsmeanth