climatebonds -可再生能源是日本能源安全的关键 Renewable Power is Key to Japan's Energy Security

RenewablePowerIsKeytoJapan’s

EnergySecurity

Summary

Energysecurityunderpinsnationaldefence,economic

resilience,andstrategicautonomy.ForJapan,

strengtheningdomesticenergyproductionisnolonger

solelyamatterofclimateoreconomicpolicy;itis

increasinglycentraltothecredibilityofitsnationalsecurity

anddefencepositioninamorecontestedgeopoliticalenvironment.

WiththeLiberalDemocraticPartysecuringasupermajorityunderTakaichi’sadministration,Japan’senergysecuritychallengehasgainedrenewed

urgency–andopportunity.Thegovernmenthasamandatetoaddresssecuritychallengesandtopushthroughnecessarypolicychanges.

Thegovernment’sintentionistonowrevisetheNationalSecurityStrategy

(NSS),NationalDefenseStrategy(NDS),andDefenseBuildupProgram.EnergysecuritycannowbepositionedasacorepillarinJapan’sbroaderdefenceandnationalresiliencestrategy.

Japan’sover-dependenceonenergyimportsisnothingnew;ithasbeen

constantsincetheindustrialrevolution.Itnowstandsat87.4%in2024,the

highestlevelamongmajoreconomies.Successivegovernmentshavesoughttoreducethisvulnerabilitybydiversifyingtheenergymixthroughinitiativessuchasthe7thStrategicEnergyPlanandtheGreenTransformation(GX),

whileelevatingsecurityasanationalpriority.Japan’senergysystemmustberecognisedasastrategicvulnerabilitythatrequiressystematicintegrationintosecurityplanning.

Theseambitionsrestonasimplereality:advanceddefensesystemscannotfunctionwithoutareliableandresilientdomesticpowersupply.Japan’senergysystemmustbeacknowledgedasstrategicvulnerabilitytobe

addressedasapartofitssecurityplanning.

Expandinginvestmentincleanpower-includingsolar,wind,andnuclearcanstrengthenenergyindependencewhileenhancingeconomiccompetitivenessandsocialstability.

TheNSSsignalsJapanwillmaximizeenergysourcesthatcontributetoself-suficiency,however,achievingthisobjectivewillrequireasubstantialandsustainedexpansionofdomesticrenewablepower.

PreparedbytheClimateBondsInitiative

Givenlimitedattentiontoenergyconstraintsinthecurrentdraft,the

forthcomingrevisionsundertheTakaichigovernmentwillshedlightonitsstrategicprioritiesanditsintentionstoaddressthislong-standingenergy

securitygap.IftherenewedNSSfailstointegrateenergysecurity,and

specificallyrenewableexpansion,Japanwillremainstrategicallyvulnerable.SuchacontextisanopportunityforJapantoscaleupinvestmentincleanpower-powergeneratedfromsolar,windandnuclearsources,todeliver

energyindependenceandsecuritywhilesimultaneouslyenhancingitseconomicandsocialperformanceasacountry.

Japanenjoysamplephysicalspaceavailabilitytorampupofshorewind

alongitscoastline;onland,solardeploymentisawinner,bothforformerfarmconversionandforsharedagriculturalphotovoltaics.Infact,accordingtoMinistryofEnvironmentresearch,windandsolarresourcescouldpowerthecountrytwiceover.1,2Thelatest7thStrategicEnergyPlantakesstockofthispotentialbytargetinganambitious60-70%shareofcleanpoweronthegridby2040.Ourresearchshowsthatthelevelofambitioncouldevenbepushedfurtherbyaimingfor80%ormorecleanpowerby2040.Thiscouldbeachievedwithafour-stepsystematicandfastpolicyaction:

1.Upscaletransmissionanddistributioncapacityinpowergrids,asperMETI’splan

2.Fast-trackingplanningandpermittingforrenewableenergydeployment

3.Expanddistributedenergy

4.Uselong-termofftakeagreementstomobilizelow-interestcapital

Elevatingenergypolicytothelevelofnational

securityconcernisalsoanopportunityfor

consolidatingpoliticalcapitalbothatthenationalandregionalandlocallevels.

RenewablePowerIsKeytoJapan’sEnergySecurityClimateBondsInitiative2

Strategicautonomyviamore

renewablepowerinvestment

Japan’ssecuritysignificantlydependsontheresilienceofitselectricitysystem.3Poweristhefoundationalblockofdigitalinfrastructure,manufacturing,andeconomicsecurity.Powerautonomyandresiliencemeanwinningoverstrategicriskssuchasnaturalhazardsandsupplychaindisruptions.

The2025EnergyWhitePaperdescribesrenewablesascoredomestic

energysourcesfornationalresilience,whiletheSeventhStrategicEnergy

Planstressesthatloweringimportdependenceisessentialforeconomic

security.4Together,thispointstoacleardirection:scalingupdomesticcleanpowerisnotonlyaboutmitigatingemissionsbutaboutsecuringamore

stableandeconomicallyresilientfutureforJapan.

Japanpossessesfarmorerenewableenergyresourcesthanrequiredto

meetitsenergydemand,withsolarpotential(excludingmega-solar)holds1.5to2.3timesandfloatingofshorewindpotentialaloneholding2-9timesJapan’sannualelectricity.5Therefore,currentissuesdonotlieinresourceconstraint,butratherhowfastJapancandeployrenewablesgiventhe

securityimperativeandthewindowofopportunity.

Japan’spowerdemandisprojectedtoincreaseby5.8%by2034from

2024levels,notablyduetoconstructionofnewdatacenters,AIfacilitiesandsemiconductorfactories.Peakdemandassociatedwithnewdata

centersandsemiconductorfactoriesisprojectedtobeapproximately

13timeshigherin20346comparedto2025.Ifthisgrowthisnotsuppliedbydomesticsources,Japanriskslockinginadditional7strain..Atthe

sametime,ifmanagedefectively,risingdemandfromAIdatacenters

couldhelpsupportthesecuringoflong-termpowersupplyagreementsforrenewablestomatchprojecteddemandgrowth.Asanislandnationwithoutcross-bordergaspipelinesorelectricityinterconnections,Japanreliesheavilyondomesticgenerationandimportedfuels,makingenergysecurityacentralconcerninitspowersystemplanning.Japan’smain

importroutespassthroughstrategicchokepointsincludingtheMalaccaStrait,StraitsofHormuz,andTaiwanStrait,exposingthenationto

concentratedrisksduringregionalcrises.

Whilediversifyingfuelsuppliersorshiftingtransportroutesmayoferlimitedrelief,itdoesnotfundamentallyreduceexposure,asvolatilityinglobal

energymarketsandlong-distanceshippingriskscannotbeavoided.

AsstatedinJapan’sNationalSecurityStrategy,“Turningoureyestothe

neighboringregion,Japan’ssecurityenvironmentisassevereandcomplexasithaseverbeensincetheendofWorldWarII”.

Expandingdomesticrenewableenergyreducesthesestructuralbarriers

byloweringexposuretosupplyinterruptions,stabilizinglong-termenergycosts,andlimitingtheneedforforeign-currencyoutflowsforfuelpurchases.Inaneraofheightenedgeopoliticalrisk,strengtheningdomesticclean

powercapacitythereforeappearsasanessentialcomponentofJapan’snationalresilience.

Afeasible80%in2040clean

powerplan

Expandingcleanpowergenerationto60%by2030,andthento80%by2040,canbedoneandwillbringthemuchneededenergysecurity.Onepossiblescenario8even

modelsa90%shareofcleanpoweronthegrid.Thisisachievedbygeneratingabout20%ofconsumptionfromnuclearsourceswhilebalancingpeakswithflexiblegas.

Renewablegenerationgrowsfrom188to254GWfrom

2030to2035,asignificantrampupwhichisalsoamassiveinvestment

opportunitytobuildingaresilientdomesticbasedpowersysteminJapan.MoredetailsareprovidedintheAnnexbelow.

Endingfossilfueldependency

Currently,JapanprovidesontheorderofJPY1trillionperyearindirect

fossilfuelsupport.IncreasingdomesticcleanpowersharplyreducestheneedforimportedfossilfuelsandcouldsaveuptoJPY3.4trillionby2035.Thiswouldnotonlysavepreciouscurrencyflowsbutalsoreduceexposuretoheightenedpriceshocksandvolatility.TheresultingbudgetquantitativeandqualitativeimprovementwillbenefitJapan’s

economicexpansioninmultipleways.9

Afordablecostandprice

Giventhelong-termtrendofdecliningcostsofsolarPV,ofshorewind,floatingwind,andbatterystorage,itisfeasibletoexpandrenewablewholesalepowerpricesdecliningby6%by2035.Therequiredinvestment,approximatelyJPY38trillionthrough2035,representsapproximately25%ofJapan’splannedJPY150trillionGXprogrammeandisofsetbyavoidedfossilfuelimports.Cleanenergythereforeincreasesafordabilityaswellassustainability.

ThereisconcernthatthesupplyofsolarPVcellsisdominatedbyChinesesuppliers.However,thekeydiferenceisthatthiswouldbereplacingthe

constantsupplychallengesoffossilfuelswithone-ofpurchasing;thiscouldbedoneaspartofatradeagreementwithJapantohelpcalmroughseas.

Scalingupdomesticdemandalsohassignificantpotentialtoimprovethefinancialviabilityfordomesticmanufacturers,especiallyinnewtechnologieslikeperovskitecells.

ItmustbeemphasizedthatevenwherepanelsareimportedfromChina,thissubstitutesaone-ofcapitalpurchasefordecadesofvolatilefossilfuelimports,whilecreatingdomesticvaluethroughJapaneseinstallation,gridintegration,operations,and,increasingly,next-generationtechnologies

suchasperovskiteandfloatingsolarinwhichJapanalreadyholdsacompetitiveedge.

Manageablegridinvestment

Japanhasalreadyinitiatedreformstoexpandgridcapacityand

interregionalconnectivity.METIandOCCTO’sMasterPlansoutlineanunifiedbackbonetransmissionnetworklinkingrenewable-richregionstomajor

demandcentres.Digital-twinmodelling,successfullyusedinEurope,can

helpoptimizetiming,routing,andprioritization.Batterystorage,demandresponse,pumpedhydro,andinter-regionaltransferscollectivelyallow

renewablestooperatereliablyevenduringlow-generationperiods.Thegridisnotabarrier;itistheenablerforasecure,domestic-ledpowersystem.

RenewablePowerIsKeytoJapan’sEnergySecurityClimateBondsInitiative3

Strongerindustrialbaseandregionaleconomies

PrefecturessuchasFukushima,Saga,Akita,andHokkaidodemonstratethatcoordinatedregionaltargets,communityengagement,andlocalfinancingcanacceleratecleanenergydeployment.Thesesubnationalexamplesshowthatunderstandablelocalresistancetochangecanbeovercomethrough

structuredengagementandsharedbenefits.

TheglobalPVmarketisstillheavilyconcentratedincrystallinesilicon

(c-Si),whereChinacontrolsover80%ofmanufacturing.However,next-generationtechnologiesoferroomforinnovationandleadership.Japancanleadinperovskitesolarcells(PSC)thankstoitsworld-classresearchandstrongdomesticsupplyofiodine,akeyrawmaterialforperovskites.

Thegovernmenttargets20GWofperovskitecapacityby2040,supportedbytheGreenInnovationFund(JPY157billionsubsidy).SekisuiChemicalandPanasonicaredevelopingcommercial-scaleproductionby2027.

Japanalsoholdscompetitiveadvantagesinnext-generationtechnologiessuchasfloatingsolar,agrivoltaics,andadvancedgeothermal,enabling

domesticalternativestoChinesecrystalline-siliconPV.Japanalreadyholds60%ofglobalfloatingsolarcapacity,leveragingitswaterreservoirs.

Forofshorewind,fishermenandtheircommunitiescanbeintegrated

throughrevenuesharing,discountedelectricity,co-ownershipmodels,orbenefit-sharingagreementswithinPowerPurchaseAgreements(PPAs)andprojectfinancestructures.

Abandonedfarmlandrepresentsaprovenandexpandinglandpoolavailableforsolardeployment,asdemonstratedbyexistingconversionrates.Case

studiespresentedshowagrivoltaicsprojectsinTochigiandKanagawa

wheresolarstructuresco-existwithrice,wheat,soybeansandberries,

illustratinghowsolar“sharing”cansimultaneouslyraiseenergyandfoodself-suficiencywhilereturningabandonedfarmlandtoproductiveuse.

Besides,properlydesignedagrivoltaicsarealsoaddingspaceavailabilitytosolardeployment,whileoferingthemultiplebenefitsforagricultureofdiversifyingproducemixandsecuringcheapandcleanpower.

Domesticcleanenergycanthereforeanchornewindustrialclusters,stimulateregionalrevitalization,andreduceexternaldependencies.

Activelyengagingwithcommunities,coupledwithtransparentandeficientplanning,buildstrustanddeliverstangiblebenefitssuchasimproved

energysecurityandlocaleconomicopportunities.Theimplementationofcommunitybenefitagreementsensuressharedvalue.Suchmeasureshavethepotentialtoturnresistanceintopartnership,byaligninginfrastructuredevelopmentwithlocalprioritiesandglobalclimateleadership.

Thefourstepstoenergysecuritythroughcleanpoweropportunity

1.UpscaleTransmissionandDistributionCapacityinPowerGrids

TheexpansionofrenewableenergyinJapanhasfaced

multiple,interrelatedbarriers.

Amongthemoststructurallysignificanthasbeenthelackofaunifiednationaltransmission

securitygridtomoverenewablepowerto

demandcenters,unlockregionalresources,andmaintainresilienceinemergencies.

Regionalenergygeneratorshavedificultyscalingupbecausetheydonothavetheabilitytosell

intoTokyo’selectricitymarket.

Gridfragmentationandlimitedinterconnectioncapacityconstraindeploymentandexposethepowersystemtosupplyrisks.

METIhasdevelopedacomprehensiveplanforaunified,expandedtransmissionbackbonethatwillserveasJapan’sstrategicenergyshield.Itenablesemergencyenergyrouting,strengthensindustrialcontinuityunderstress,andunlocksdomesticpowerpotentialatscale,including

regionswithstrongrenewableresourcesthatarecurrentlyconstrainedbylimitedgridaccess.

Foranislandnationwithnocross-border

electricitytransmissionconnections,grid

infrastructureisanationalsecurityasset,not

onlyanenergyasset.Expandingtransmission

capacity,buildingunderseacables,and

strengtheninginterregionallinksareessentialtounlockingrenewablepotential,ensuringsupplycontinuityinemergencies,andsupportingfutureindustrialhubs.

2.Fast-trackingPlanningandPermittingforRenewable

EnergyDeployment

Renewableenergydevelopmenthasthepotentialtorevitalize

regionaleconomiesbutiscurrentlyblockedbylengthyandcomplexpermittingandapprovalprocessesdueto

regulatoryuncertainties,limitedavailabilityoflandforlarge-scaleprojects,andthedominantroleofincumbentutilities,whichcanslowthedeploymentofrenewables.

Legislatingforfast-trackpermittingand

regulatoryapprovaltobuildcriticalcleanenergyandgridinfrastructure,forexamplethrough

designatedrenewableenergyzones,clearer

approvalpathways,andmodernizedgridaccessrules,willaccelerateinvestmentandimproveenergysecurity.

Strategicpermittingagilityisnotjustadministrativereform;itisanationalcapabilityinaneraof

geopoliticalcompetitionandenergyvulnerability.

Countriesthatcanbuildinfrastructurefaster

gaineconomicandsecurityadvantages.Japan’sregulatorymodernizationmustmatchthe

scaleofitsambitionandpotential,treatingcleanenergydeploymentascriticalnationalstrategicinfrastructureratherthanastandardinfrastructureapprovalflow.

3.Expanddistributedenergy

Japanshouldsecureindustrialandcommunityresilience

throughdistributedenergyandlocalmicrogridsystems.

Distributedenergysystems

reducetheloadoncentralizedelectricity

generationandaremoreresilientinthefaceofemergencies,whethernaturalorsecurityrelated.

Aidedbysmart-powermanagementsystems,distributedenergysystemsareplayingan

importantpartintheswitchtoelectrifiedeconomiesthataremoreresilientandmoresecureinthefaceofconflict.

JapanisalreadyseeingsuccessinHokkaidoandKyushuwherecommunitiesproduceelectricitylocally,andprefecturessuchasFukushima,Saga,Akita,andHokkaidoprovidereplicablemodelsforlocalenergydeployment.

Localminigridsprovidecontinuityofelectricityforhospitals,semiconductorplants,defense

RenewablePowerIsKeytoJapan’sEnergySecurityClimateBondsInitiative4

facilities,andessentialservicesevenifnationalsupplychainsaredisrupted.Batterystorage

significantlycontributestodependability.

Distributedsystemscreatetheconditionfortheformationofasecure,flexible,andfuture-readypowersystem.

4.Uselong-termofftake

agreementtomobilizelow-

interestcapital

Japanwillhavetomobilize

privatefinancetodelivercleanenergyinvestmentatnationaldefencescale.

Thesinglemostimportantmeasurewillbe

theprovisionoflong-termrenewableenergy

purchasecontracts.Inmarketsallaroundthe

world,successivewavesofcontractshavedrivendownthecostsofgeneration.Securityofofftakeagreementswilldeliverlow-costcapital.

Renewableenergydevelopmentrequireshighlevelsofcapitalandlowoperatingcosts.Japanhasacriticaladvantageovermostcountries—ithaslargepoolsofcapitalworkingandalow-interestrateenvironmentwithanappetiteforlong-datedinvestments.

Theprimarychallengeforrenewableenergy

developmentisnottechnologicalorconstruction;

it’sthecostofcapital.Apartfromfast-trackingpermitting,themostimportantmeansof

reducingcapitalcostsistoprovidelong-

termofftakeagreements.Thiscanbeinitiallysupportedbycreditguarantees.

SubsequentfinancialengineeringwillbewhatliberatesJapantoachieveenergysecurity.

Elevatingenergysecuritytoa

matterofnationalconcern

Toscaleupcleanenergyasacorepowersource,Japanmustprioritizeenergyatthelevelofnationalsecurity

concern.Achievingthisrequirestwocomplementary

approaches:regulatoryreformandlocalbenefit-sharing.

First,regulatorychangesmustbemadetoensurethatrelevantenergyinfrastructureistreatedasamatterof

nationalimportance.Germanyadoptedthenational-priorityapproachalongsidesweepingpermittingandland-usereforms,whichhas

dramaticallyacceleratedwindenergyapprovals.10,11Reformsincludeddigitizedpermitting,streamlinedapprovalpathways,moreflexible

repoweringconditions,andexpandedpermittedsites.12

Second,tangiblebenefitsmustbeensuredtoflowbacktolocal

communitiesintheformoffinancialbenefits(e.g.sharedtaxationrevenuefromrenewableenergy),coupledwithtransparentplanningtobuild

trust,deliverlower-costenergy,andcreateeconomicopportunities.In

Japan,policyguidanceandenergy-transitionstrategiesemphasizethat

renewable-energydevelopmentshouldbeaccompaniedbyfinancial

returnstolocalareasandtransparentplanningprocessesthatbuildtrust

andsocialacceptance.13,14Thisincludesmechanismssuchaslocalrevenuesharing,communityfunds,andparticipatoryplanning.Ofshorewindportdevelopmentshouldbedesignednotonlyasanenergyinfrastructurebutasanengineforregionalgrowththroughsupportingjobs,supplychains,andwidereconomicactivity.15,16

AchievingJapan’senergysecurity

•Theneededtechnologyexists;Japan’sengineering,constructionandfinancialsectorsareworld-leading,asarethecountry’smanagersofcapital.Whatisrequiredispoliticalwillandsupportivepolicy.

•Japanhasalreadyincreasedrenewablegeneration2.5-foldoverthepast

12years;itcanandmustdosoagainby2040.

•Reaching80%cleanpowerwillmakeJapanstronger-energysecure,

economicallyresilient,andaglobaltechnologyandclimateleader.A

trulysustainablepathwayrequiresprioritizingdomesticrenewable

deployment,gridmodernization,anddemand-sideeficiency,ratherthansubstitutingoneimportedenergysourceforanother.

•Thetransitionmaynotbeeasy,however,maintainingthestatusquoisbothmoreriskyandmorecostly.Thetimetoaccelerateisnow.

RenewablePowerIsKeytoJapan’sEnergySecurityClimateBondsInitiative5

ANNEX:Raisingtheambitionlevelofthe7thStrategicplan

The7thStrategicEnergyPlan

Toachieve2030’stargetsandcarbonneutralityby2050,Japan’sbiggest

challengeistointroducemaximumpracticableamountofrenewableenergysourceswhilesolvingthelackoftransmissioncapacitiesandweakgrid

connectionstraversingregions.Japan’sStrategicEnergyPlanfunctionsasaframeworkforJapan’senergypolicyandisrevisedeverythreeyears.

InFebruary2025,the7thStrategicEnergyPlanwasapproved.17ItoutlinesthefundamentaldirectionofJapan’senergypolicy,andmaintainstheS+3Eprinciples(Safety,EnergySecurity,EconomicEficiency,andEnvironmentalProtection).Itemphasizestheneedtorespondtoenergycrisesand

economicsecuritydemands.

Theplandoesnotindicateanexitfromcoalandmaintainshighthermal

powergenerationtargetsevenin2040.ThinktanksandNGOshaveissuedstatementsandopinionscriticizingthedraftplanasinadequatetolimitingthetemperatureriseto1.5°C,ontopoftheseriousenergysecuritychallengefromoverrelianceonimports.18Thegovernmentpredictsthatelectricity

demandinFY2040willhaveincreasedfromthecurrentlevel(985.4billionkWhin2023)toaround1.1-1.2tnkWh.

Excessshareofthermalpowergenerationisnotconsistentwith1°5Ctarget

ThebiggestissuewiththenewStrategicEnergyPlanisthatthermalpowerwillbe30-40%ofJapan’senergymixin2040,whichisinconsistentwiththe1.5°Ctargetdemandedbytherestoftheworld.Thegovernmentalsostatesthatitwillcontinuetousenuclearpowertothemaximumextentpossibleandsetittoaround20%in2040,atargetthatmaybeexceedinglydificulttoachieve.Ifnuclearpowercannotsupplyelectricityasexpected,thermalpowerwillhavetobeusedtocoverthecost,andtheratioofthermalpowercouldincreasefurther.

Theprevious6thStrategicEnergyPlandividedtheshareofthermalpowerinto19%coal,20%LNG,2%oil,and1%hydrogenin2030,butthenew2040energymixonlyindicatesabout30%to40%forthermalpower,without

abreakdownofthefuelsources.AttheApril2040Climate,Energyand

EnvironmentMinister’smeeting,theG7membersincludingJapanagreedtophaseoutcoal-firedplantswithoutemissionsreductionsmeasuresby

2035.Japanmaintainsthatammoniaco-firingconstitutes“implementingemissionsreductionmeasures”,showingnomorestringentstancetophaseoutcoal.Similarly,thereisnospecifictargetgivenregardingLNG,whichhasbeensteadilyincreasingoverthepastfewyears,andtowhatextenthigh-costhydrogen/ammoniaco-firingwillbeutilized.

Japan’spowergenerationmixbased

oncurrentpolicies

Source:

/blogs/the-edge/walking-japans-energy-tightrope/#:

~:text=Driven%20by%20AI%2Dled%20data%20centres%20and%20wider,remain%20in%20the%20generation%20mix%20for%20longer.

Table1:Preliminary(2023,actual)andtarget

(2040)figuresforthecompositionofeachenergy

FiscalYear2023

FiscalYear2040

Energyself-suficiencyrate

15.2%

Approx.30-40%

Renewableenergy

22.9%

Approx.40-50%

SolarPVpower

9.8%

Approx.23%to29%

Windpower

1.1%

Approx.4-8%

Hydropower

7.6%

Approx.8-10%

Geothermalpower

0.3%

Approx.1-2%

Biomass

4.1%

Approx.5-6%

Nuclearpower

8.5%

Approx.20%

Thermalpower

68.6%

Approx.30-40%

Source:METI(2025)

https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/en/category/others/basic_plan/pdf/7th_outline.pdf

Atechnicallyfeasible1。5C

pathwayforJapan’spower

TostayontheJapan’s2050netzeropath,Japancouldadopta1.5°C

compatibletargetby2035,supportedbyclearrenewabledeploymentgoalsandenablingpolicyreforms,whilerecognizingthatrenewableexpansionalonemaybeinsuficientandthatcontinuedinnovationincomplementarytechnologies,aswellasinfrastructurebuild-outandpermittingtimelines.19

Withcostsforsolar,ofshorewind,andbatterystorageonarapiddecliningtrend,Japancouldreacha90%cleanelectricityshareby2035,withagoalofnon-fossilenergycommandinga59%shareofelectricitygenerationby2035.

Achievingthiswouldcutpowercosts,almosteliminatedependenceonimportedLNGandcoal,andsharplyreducepowersectoremissions—allwhilemaintainingareliableandresilientgridwithoutaddingnewgasorcoalcapacity,ifinfrastructuredeployment,permitting,andsystem

integrationprogressinatimelymanner.

TheJapan2035reportfromBerkeleyLAB20presentsonescenario,alongsideotherdomesticandinternationalanalysis,inwhicha90%cleanenergygridthatfeaturesacceleratedsolarandwindcapacityadditions,newbattery

storage,andnewinterregionaltransmissioninfrastructurecanbecombinedwithasmallpercentageoftheexistingfossilfuel-basedgenerationcapacitytodependablymeetJapan’selectricitydemand,whilemaintainingplanningreservemarginandoperatingreserves.

Anadditionof116gigawatthours(GWh;29gigawattsfor4hours)of

batterystorageand11.8gigawatts(GW)ofnewinterregionaltransmissionlines,coupledwithexistingflexiblemethodsofgeneration(dispatchablehydropower,pumpedhydropower,andnaturalgas),cancost-efectivelycontributetobalancingoperationofa90%cleanenergygrid,evenduringperiodsoflowREgenerationand/orhighdemand.

InthisCleanPowerScenario,REgeneratedmainlyfromsolarphotovoltaic,(residentialandutilityscale),andwindsources(on-shore,of-shoreand

floating)formsthebackboneofthesystem,totals70%ofannualelectricitygenerationby2035,Nuclearpowerandnaturalgas-firedpoweraccountfor20%and10%ofelectricitygenerated,respectively.

Allexistingcoalplants,whichgenerated32%ofthetotalelectricitysupplyinFY2019,arephasedoutby2035,andnonewfossilfuel-poweredplantsarebuilt.

RenewablePowerIsKeytoJapan’sEnergySecurityClimateBondsInitiative6

Thegraphbelowshowstheenergymixandthetotalcapacitychangesbetween2020and2035.

Source:Shiraishietal.,(2023)p.4

/sites/

/files/pdf-actualites/lbnl_2035_japan_report_english_02.27.pdf

Scalinguprenewables

Achievinga90%cleanelectricitymixappearstechnicallyfeasibleunder

mo