2025电力科技革命：未来能源图景前瞻报告 The Electrotech Revolution The shape of things to come

EMB三R

TheElectrotech

Revolution

Theshapeofthingstocome

DaanWalter

SamButler-Sloss

KingsmillBond,CFA

September,2025

2

TheAgeofElectrotech

Humanityisgraduatingfromburningfossil

commoditiestoharnessingmanufactured

technologies—fromhuntingscarcefossilstofarmingtheinexhaustiblesun,fromconsumingEarth'sresourcestomerelyborrowingthem.

Thisisn'tamarginalclimatesubstitution.It'sanenergyrevolution.

Themagneticcentreistheelectron:weare

revolutionisinghowwegenerate,use,andconnectelectrons.Solarandwindareconqueringelectricitysupply.EVs,heatpumps,andAIareelectrifyingmajornewuses.Batteriesanddigitalisationareconnectingsupplyanddemand.

Threereinforcingshifts.Oneenergyrevolution.Theelectrotechrevolution.

Atitscore,thisrevolutionisdrivenbyphysics,

economics,andgeopolitics.Afterall,thearcofenergyhistorybendstowardssolutionsthatareleaner,

cheaperandmoresecure.

Short-termssetbacksmatter,butfundamentalsmattermore.Andthefundamentalsarestackedin

electrotech’sfavour.

Physics.Electrotechmakesamockeryofsettingfossilsonfireandlosingtwo-thirdsoftheenergytoheat.

Electrotechisthreetimesasefficient.

Economics.Technologiesgetcheaperwithscale.

Commoditiesgetmoreexpensivethedeeperyoudig.

Geopolitics.Threequartersoftheworldisdependentonfossilimports.92%ofcountrieshaverenewables

potentialover10xtheircurrentdemand.

Electrotechhasgrownexponentiallyfordecades.Thedifferencetodayisthatit'stoocheaptocontainandtoobigtoignore.Ifcurrentexponentialsholdforfive

moreyears,globalfossildemandwillfalloffitsplateau.

WelcometotheAgeofElectrotech.

DaanWalter,SamButler-Sloss,KingsmillBond

3

Contents

1

Anew

perspective

2

Theriseof

electrotech

3

Peakfossil

demand

4

Fundamental

drivers

6

Seizethe

opportunity

5

Profound

impact

4

Chapter1

ANewPerspective:TheElectrotechRevolution

01

Electrotechisabetterwaytoexplainreality

Mostofthedebateonthefutureofenergyisbetweenfossil

gradualistsandnetzero

advocates.Weproposeathird

approach—theelectrotech

revolution—whichbetterexplainstheextraordinarychangestakingplaceintheenergysystemtoday.

02

Electrotechiselectricitytechnology

Electrotechdescribesexponentialenergytechnologies

revolutionisinghowwegenerate,connectanduseelectrons–

technologiesenjoyinglearning

curvesandrapidgrowth,suchassolar,wind,batteries,anddigitalsolutions.

03

Electrotechreleases100xmoreenergy

Electrotechenablesustoharnessthesun'senormousenergy

resources.ThesunsuppliesEarthwithasmuchenergyeveryfive

daysasallfossilfuelreserves

combined.Thismakespossibleanewenergyera.

>>ReturntoTableofContents

Twoviewsonenergydominatetheconversation.Weproposeathird

ThedominantenergyviewsintheenergydebatetodayAthirdway:theelectrotechview

Theincumbentenergyview,centredonfossilfuels,slowchangeandbusiness-as-usual

EIA–Primaryenergysupply

QuadrillionBritishthermalunits

1,000

500

Renewables

Oil

NaturalGas

Coal

0

Other

201020302050

Source:EnergyinformationAdministration

Theclimateview,centredonemissions,policytargetsandthemoralobligationtofixclimatechange

IPCC–Pathwaystonetzeroemissions

50GtCO2emissionsperyear

25

0

-25

2010204020702100

Source:IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

Thenewelectrotechview,centredongrowthandinnovation

Rystad–Globalusefulenergydemand

EJofusefulenergy

500

Solarandwind, powering electrifiedenergyservices

250

FossilfuelspoweringOther

fossiltechenergy

0

2010204020702100

Source:RystadEnergy

5

Thisisatechnologyrevolutioninenergy

Electrotechistechnologythatrevolutionisesthesupply,connectionanddemandofelectricity

Supply

Newwaystogenerateelectricity

Renewablesasvectorsofchange

SolarPVWind

deployment(GW)deployment(GW)

___20102020___20102020

Connections

Newwaystotransportandstoreelectricity

Demand

Newwaystouseelectricity

Flextech/gridtechasvectorsofchange

Electrificationasvectorofchange

HVDClines

deployment(km)

Batterystorage

deployment

EVHeatpumps

salessales

___20102020___20102020___20102020___20102020

6

Sources:Ember,IEA,RMI,ThunderSaid

7

Source:EmberEMB

Acenturyofevolutionisconvergingintoadecadeofrevolution

ILLUSTRATIVE

The2020smarkagreattechnologyconvergence

1991–Sonycommercializes

thefirstLi-ionbattery

Battery

1976–Lithium-ionbatteryconceptproposed

EV

Modern

1921-IntroductionofUniversalMotors

1983–BrushlessDC

Electricmotors

motorscommercialized,

ELECTROTECHCONVERGENCE

2020s

19001975

2006–Firstsmartmeterswith

1971–firstchipsmadecommerciallyavailable

embeddedchipsdeployed

atscale

Chips

1954–BellLabsDevelops

FirstSiliconSolarCell

Solarenergy

Windenergy

1979–firstmodernwindturbine

1991–firstoffshore

windfarm

Heatpumps

1938–Firstfunctionalresidentialheatpumpinstalled

2008–Breakthroughincold-climateheatpumptech

8Sources:CarlotaPerez(firstfivewaves),EmberFutures(6thwave)

Thisistheageofelectrotech

Itisthelatestinalonglineoftechnologyshifts

IndustrialRevolution

1stwave

Iron

Waterpower

Mechanisation

因

Ageofsteamandrail

2ndwave

Steamengines

SteampowerRail

Ageofsteelandelectricity

Electricity

Steel

Heavy

engineering

3rdwave

Ageofoilandmassproduction

Mass-produced

automobiles

Cheapoil

Petrochem

4thwave

DigitalAge

Informationtechnologies

TelecomsSoftware

5thwave

ElectrotechAge

Renewable

energy

Electrification

AI

6thwave

9

Source:EmberanalysisEMB

Electrotechisthechildofdigitaltech

Electrotechismadeofthesamecomponentsasdigitaltech,and

inheritsitsmomentum

Drones/electric

aircraft

Datacenter

Smartphones/laptops

Processor

Coolant

Electric

motor/

generator

Heatpump

Battery

Batterystationary

storage

Solarpanel

Inverter

Solarfarm

Satellite

EV

Windfarm

10Sources:EI;Emberanalysis.Notethisisallsolarenergyreceivedbytheearth.Weonlyneedtoextractasmallfractionofit.

Fromburningoldsunshinetousingitreal-time

ThesunsuppliesmoreenergytoEarthevery5daysthanallfossilfuelreserves

Fossilfuels

Totalterrestrialenergyreservesfortherestoftime,currentestimates,global,EJ

Gas

7,500

10,600

26,600

Coal

Oil

Electrotech–

solar

WeeksTodayago

Solarenergyreceivedfromthesunevery

5days,EJ

Solarenergyreceived

350millionyearsago

Monthsago

50,000

11

Sources:IanMorris:Foragers,FarmersandFossilfuels;CarbonTracker:TheSky’sthelimit;Emberframing.

Foragers,Farmers,Fossils,Photovoltaics

Electrotechenablesanother100xleapinenergyabundance

Photovoltaics

2025-onwards

Solarand

electrificationenable

100xmoreenergy

potential

Fossils

1750-2025

Fossilsunlockancient

Farmers

9,000BC-1750

Foragers

250,000-9,000BC

Energyfromhuman

andanimallabour,andfire

sunshineandenablea50xincreaseinenergycapture

Agricultureenablesenergycaptureperhectareto

increase100x

12

Chapter2

Theriseofelectrotech

01

Electrotechcostshavefallenfast

Electrotechcostshavebeenfallingfordecadesonestablished

learningcurvesofaround20%foreverydoublingindeployment.Theynowchallengefossilfuelsoncost,withDolphinEVsretailinginChinabelow$10,000andsolar-plus-

storageinIndiaat$40perMWh.

Asaresult,capitalisshifting,andtwo-thirdsofenergyexpenditureisgoingintoelectrotech.

02

Growthhasbeenexponential

Keyelectrotechtechnologieshaveenjoyedexponentialgrowth.We

seethisforgeneration(solarandwind),connections(batteriesandsoftware)andusage(EVandheatpumps).ChangeisledbyChina,andisnowcascadingintothe

emergingmarkets.ASEAN,forexample,leapfroggedtheUSinelectrificationin2023.

03

Theceilingofthepossibleishighaboveus

Wealreadyknowhowtogetsolarandwindto70-80%ofgenerationatacostcomparablewithfossilfuelsandhowtoelectrifyaround75%ofenddemand.Sowecan

morethantriplerenewablesandelectrification.

>>ReturntoTableofContents

13Sources:IEAWEO2024;Emberanalysis.Othercleanelectronsaremainlynuclearandhydro.

Thetwovectorsoftheenergytransition

Renewablesreplacefossilelectricity;electrificationreplacesfossilmolecules

Shareoffinalenergy100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

Otherclean

0%

Globalfinalenergydemandin2023

Fossil-fueledpower

Fossilfuelmolecules

1

Renewables

2Electrification

Solarandwind

Biomassandheat

ElectronsMoleculesShareoffinalenergy

14Sources:IEAWEI,Emberanalysis–Note:Oilinvestmentontherighthandsideisupstreaminvestment

Electrotechinvestmentistwiceasbigasfossils

Andwespendmoreonsolarcapexthanonoil

EnergyinvestmentbycategorySolarandoilinvestment

2,000

billionUSD

Electrotech

2x

1,500

Fossil

1,000

500

Other

0

201520172019202120232025

600

450

300

150

0

billionUSD

Solar

Oil

201520172019202120232025

15Sources:RMIX-ChangeBatteries,USDOE,USNREL;Emberanalysis

Electrotechkeepsgettingbetter

Decadeafterdecadeofinnovationraisestheceilingofthepossible

Solarcellefficiency

30%

25

20

15

10

5

0

197519851995200520152024

Moreefficientsolarcellsmeanmorespaceandmaterialefficiencyandlowercost

Top-tierbatterycelldensity

Wh/kg

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1990199520002005201020152020

DenserbatteriesmeanlongerEV

ranges;newEVapplicationsopeningupandmorematerialefficiency

Heatpumpcoefficientofperformance,USsalesaverage

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1970198019902000201020202030

HigherCOPmeansamoreefficientandpowerfulheatingsystem

16Sources:OWID;IRENA;BNEF/Avicenne

Costshavebeenfallingfordecadesonlearningcurves

Decadesofsteadycostinnovationimprovedelectrotecheconomics

\

\since1980

SolarPVmoduleprice

$/W,globalprice

Logarithmicscale

3699.6%

0.1

19802020

Windinstallationcost

$/kW,globalprice

Logarithmicscale

5,69480%

19802020

since1984

-

\

\

1,157

Batterycellprice

$/kW,globalprice

Logarithmicscale

8,888

78

19802020

99%

since1991

\

\

\

\

\

17Sources:IRENA,BNEF(Batteries),Ember

Cheapenoughtochallengeincumbents

Afterdecadesofcostinnovationelectrotechisnowcheaperthanfossils

Wind

Solar

Battery

200

150

100

50

0

$/MWhLCOE(2024real)

-58%

Offshore

Onshore

20142024

$/MWhLCOE(2024real)

200

150

\

77%

100

Fossilfuel

range(LCOE)

50

Fossilfuelrange(marginalcost)

0

20142024

$/kWh(2024real)

800

600

400

-84%

200

ICEcarTCObreak-even

ICEcarstickerpricebreak-even

0

20142024

18Sources:IEA;Emberanalysis.TheIEAnetzerooutlookischosenasanillustrationthatcapacityisaboveeventhislevel.

Themanufacturingcapacityisinplace

Outpacingprojecteddemandofevennetzeroscenarios

SolarPVmanufacturingcapacityBatterymanufacturingcapacity

1,600

1,200

800

400

0

GWPlannedcapacity

IEANetZerooutlook

Demand

2015202020252030

16

12

8

4

0

TWh

Plannedcapacity

IEANetZerooutlook

Demand

2015202020252028

19

Sources:BNEF

Sunrise

Solarhasgonefromsmallesttolargestsourceofcapacityin15years

Globalinstalledelectricitycapacity

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

GW

Solar

Coal

Naturalgas

Wind

Other

renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Bioenergy

2000201020202025E

Solarandwinddeploymentisaglobalstory

Frommatureeconomiestoemergingmarkets

MaturemarketsGreaterChinaEmergingmarketsPetroregions

%generation

fromsolar/wind

20

15

10

5

0

201020152020

20

15

10

5

0

201020152020

20

15

10

5

0

201020152020

20

15

10

5

0

201020152020

20

Sources:Ember.Note:EmergingmarketsincludeLatinAmerica,Africa,SouthAsiaandSoutheastAsia;PetroregionsincludetheMiddleEastandEurasia.

21Sources:EnergyInstitute,IEA;ThunderSaid;Emberanalysis

Theriseofnewconnections

Flextechandgridtechsmartlyconnectsupplyanddemand

BatterystoragecapacityHighvoltageDCtransmissionInternetconnecteddevicesSmartmetersinstalled

150

100

50

0

GWtotalgrid-scalestoragecapacity

201020202024

450GWinstalledcapacity

300

150

0

199720102023

20billionunits

15

10

5

0

2010201520202024

1,200millionunits

900

600

300

0

20082012201620202024

22

Sources:IRENA,EmberEMB

Thecheaperitgets,thefasteritgoes

Thevirtuouscyclebetweencostandvolumeisself-sustaining

Utility-scaleenergystoragecost,global

3,0002024USD/kWhusable

Utility-scaleenergystoragesales,global

200GWh

2,400\160CAGR

1,800\120+71%

FallingcostsRisingvolumes

1,20080

40

600

00

20102015202020242010201520202024

23Sources:Pintoetal,2023;Emberanalysis.Electricityconsumptionbyend-uses.

Thelongmarchofelectrification

We’vebeenelectrifyingtheglobaleconomyforoveracentury

Machinetools&pumps

CoolingHeatingAppliancesLightingElectronics

8PWh

4

2

0

6

1900194019802020

19001940198020201900194019802020190019401980202019001940198020201900194019802020

Electricityisthekingofenergy

Electricityovertookoilaslargestsupplierofusefulenergyin2007

UsefulenergydemandShare

oftotal

2007Electricity34%

60EJ

Oil26%

40Gas22%

20Coal11%Biomass7%

0

1900192019401960198020002022

Sources:IIASA,IEA,Emberanalysis.Allfiguresexcludefeedstockuse.Usefulenergydemandreferstotheamountofenergyusedto

24performaspecifictask,afteraccountingforenergylossesintheprocess

25Sources:IEA.Notethesefiguresareforthesizeofthefleet

TheEVrevolutionistakingoff

Electricmobilityisgrowingexponentiallyacrossvehiclesizes

2&3wheelerCarsEVTrucks&vansPublicchargingpoints

80million

60

40

20

0

2010201520202024

60million

40

20

0

2010201520202024

3million

2

1

0

2010201520202024

6million

4

2

0

2010201520202024

26Sources:IEA,Emberanalysis–Note:showingtotalfleetnumbersforcars

EVdeploymentisgrowingexponentially

Doubledigitgrowthacrosstheworld

China

35million

28

21

14

7

0

2010201520202024

NorthAmerica&Europe

25million

RestofWorld

4million

20

15

10

5

0

2010201520202024

3

2

1

0

2010201520202024

EMB

27

Sources:Ember,IEA

Chinaismovingatlightningspeed

Acrossrenewablesandelectrification

SolarandwindgenerationElectrificationElectricvehicles

2,000TWh

1,500

1,000

500

0

2010201520202024

30%offinalconsumptionfromelectricity

25

20

15

10

5

0

1990200020102020

50%ofsales

Cars

40

30

20

10Vans

0

2010201520202024

Emergingmarketsareleapfrogging

TwothirdsareaheadoftheUSinsolardeploymentandaquarterinelectrification

ShareofEM

aheadofUSinsolaruptake

63%

2023

ShareofEM

aheadofUS

electrification

Examplecountries

25%ofgeneration

Chile

20

15

10

Brazil

SouthAfrica

Mexico

India

US

0

20102023

Vietnam

5

2023

25%

Examplecountries

%ofenergydemandfromelectricity

Vietnam

Malaysia

Lao

BangladeshChile

Mexico

PhilippinesParaguay

15

10

5

0

19902023

35

20

25

30

US

28

Sources:IEA;Emberanalysis–Emergingmarkets(EM)definedasLatinAmerica,Africa,SouthAsiaandSoutheastAsiaanddonotincludethepetroregions.Shareofemergingmarketsisashareofelectricitydemand(l)andenergydemand(r).

Changeishappeningfasterthanitcanberecorded

Centralgridstatisticscannotkeepupwithwhatishappeningontheground

Solarcapacityimported/installed

Importsgenerallyconverttoreportedinstalledcapacitywithinayearorso.

Australia

8

6

4

2

0

GW

Imported

Added

capacity

accordingtoofficialstats

20172024

Acrossemergingmarkets,thereisagrowinggapbetweenofficialstatisticsandimportfigures,whichimpliesimportedsolarpanelsarenotcentrallyconnectedandcountedbutinstalleddecentrally.

Pakistan

20

1.5

16

1.2

12

0.9

8

0.6

4

0.3

0

20172024

20172023

20172024

Colombia

Nigeria

0.8

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.2

1.8

1.0

29

Sources:Emberdata;Emberanalysis•Notes:ImportedstatisticsareinDC,whilereportedcapacityisinAC.Theyshouldmatchwithintheexpectedinverterclippingratio.

30Sources:EmberChinaSolarExportExplorer

Africaisturningtothesun

Solarimportsareupby60%inthelast12