2026-2027年全球经济展望报告逼近极限（英文）-安联Allianz

Economicoutlook2026-27:Stretchingthelimits

17December2025

AllianzResearch

AllianzResearch

2

Content

4

ExecutiveSummary

9

Globaloutlook:Exceedingpreviousexpectationsbutdownsiderisksremain

12

Inflationandcentralbanks:divergenceahead

14

Developedmarkets:runningontwospeeds

16

Emergingmarkets:selectivityafterayearofrally

19

Corporates:Earningstocontinuetogrowamidfragmentationandcapexdivergence

28

Capitalmarketsoutlook:Resiliencedespitelate-cycleconditions

3

17December2025

Executive

Summary

LudovicSubran

ChiefInvestmentOfficer&ChiefEconomist

ludovic.subran@

JordiBascoCarrera

HeadofPrivateMarketsInvestmentStrategy

jordi.basco_carrera

@

AnaBoata

HeadofEconomicResearch

ana.boata@

MaximeDarmetCucchiarini

SeniorEconomistforUK,US&France

maxime.darmet

@

LluisDalmauTaules

EconomistforAfrica&MiddleEast

lluis.dalmau

@

GuillaumeDejean

SeniorSectorAdvisor

guillaume.dejean

@

BjoernGriesbach

HeadofMacroeconomicandCapitalMarketsResearch

bjoern.griesbach@

JasminGröschl

SeniorEconomistforEurope

jasmin.groeschl

@

MichaelHeilmann

SeniorInvestmentStrategist

michael.heilmann

@

AmericaHernandez

SeniorInvestmentStrategist

america.hernandez

@

AlexanderHirt

HeadofCreditandEquity

alexander.hirt

@

BernhardHirsch

HeadofRatesandEmergingMarkets

bernhard.hirsch

@

FrançoiseHuang

SeniorEconomistforAsiaPacific

francoise.huang@

PatrickKrizan

SeniorInvestmentStrategist

patrick.krizan@

AnoKuhanathan

HeadofCorporateResearch

ano.kuhanathan@

MariaLatorre

SectorAdvisor,B2B

maria.latorre

@

•GlobalGDPgrowthremainsstrong...fornow.Itisexpectedtoreach

+2.9%in2026and+2.8%in2027,followingarobust+3%in2025.Carryovergrowthfromastrong2025intheUSandChina,aswellassustained

momentuminthefaceofdisruptions,accountforovertwo-thirdsoftheupwardrevisioncomparedtolastquarter.

•TheUSeconomyisincreasinglyrunningontwospeeds.Theimpactofthetradewarhasbeenmilder,atjust-0.6ppin2025vs-1.6ppestimatedinQ2.Thisimprovementisduetoreducedtariffs(to11%effectivefrom

27%announcedon2April)throughsectorexclusionsandstrategictradedealswithkeypartners.Additionally,theinformationandcommunicationsector,includingAI,hasfueledmorethanhalfofUSGDPgrowthin2025,contributingasubstantial+1.1pp,andthistrendisexpectedtocontinuein

2026.Wehaverevisedontheupsideourforecastfor2026to+2.5%onthebackofamoreresilientconsumer,ahighercreditimpulseandthepositiveimpactofAI.

•China’sexportgrowthremainsthefront-runner–despitethetradewar!Growthhasexceededexpectations,buoyedbystronger-than-anticipatedexternaldemand(andsoftimports).ThissurgewasdrivenbyfrontloadingfromtheUSinthefirsthalfoftheyear,strategicreroutingtocircumvent

tariffs,expandingmarketsharesintherestoftheworld,aweakercurrencyandcompetitiveprices.Meanwhile,domesticdemandstillstruggles

torecoversustainably,withfurtherpolicysupportneededandlikelytobeannouncedbyQ12026.Inthiscontext,andwithmanysectorsinovercapacity,pricepressuresremainlow.

•TheEurozoneoutlookremainsparforthecourse,withmoderategrowthaheadamidstructuralchallenges.GDPgrowthisexpectedat+1.1%in

2026after+1.4%in2025.ExcludingvolatilenationalaccountsinIreland,

theEurozoneeconomywillacceleratefrom+0.9%in2025to+1.2%in2026and+1.3%in2027.Germany’seconomyshouldreach+0.9%growthin2026–astrongreboundafterthreeconsecutiveyearsofstagnationorrecessionbutstillunderwhelminggiventheavailablefiscalstimulusasstructural

headwindspersist.France’sGDPwillgrowby+1.1%despitetheongoingpoliticalchallenges,benefitingfromarenewedinvestmentcycle.

•Globaltradesurprisedontheupsideascompaniessteppeduptothe

platewithreroutingandmitigationstrategies.Halfoftheimprovementinourforecastfortradegrowth(from+2%to+3.5%in2025andfrom+0.6%to+1.3%in2026)hasbeendrivenbylowertariffs,firms’reroutingand

mitigationstrategies,aswellasasurgeinAI-relatedinvestments.Overall,thetradewarpushedvolumeofcontainersbackto2017highs,mainly

drivenbyAsia.

AllianzResearch

PierreLebard

PublicaffairsOfficer

pierre.lebard

@

MaximeLemerle

LeadAdvisor,InsolvencyResearch

maxime.lemerle@

YaoLu

InvestmentStrategist

yao.lu

@

LinaManthey

InvestmentStrategist

lina.manthey

@

MaddalenaMartini

SeniorEconomistforItaly,Greece,Spain&Benelux

maddalena.martini@

LucaMoneta

SeniorEconomistforEmergingMarkets

luca.moneta@

GiovanniScarpato

EconomistforCentral&EasternEurope

giovanni.scarpato@

SivagaminathanSivasubramanianESGandDataAnalyst

sivagaminathan.sivasubramanian@allianz-

KatharinaUtermöhl

HeadofThematicandPolicyResearchkatharina.Utermöhl@

ZiqiYe

InvestmentStrategist

4

ye.ziqi@

•Emergingmarketsarenotjustwatchingfromthesidelines:Theyremain

resilientoverall,stillenjoyingamorepositivecyclethandevelopedmarkets

andgenerallysolidexternalpositions.EMsoverallremainresilient,stillenjoyingamorepositivecyclethandevelopedmarketsandgenerallysolidexternal

positions.SupportfromalowerUSDandtheFedeasingcyclehadallowedmanyEMcentralbankstocutratesmorethanexpectedin2025.Butsomecountries

mayfaceslowingmomentumgoingforward(e.g.India,Indonesia,Romania,RussiaorTaiwan),whilecurrentaccountdeficitshavebeenwideningforsome(Argentina,Chile,Colombia,Indonesia,Philippines,Romania,Türkiye)and

surpluseshaveturnedintodeficitsforothers(SaudiArabia,CzechRepublic,Poland),requiringclosemonitoring.

•Monetaryandfiscalpolicy:supportiveintheUS,neutralinEurope.WestronglybelievetheFedwillenditseasingcyclesoonerthanmarketsexpect,withthe

FederalFundsratetosettleat3.5%afteronemore25bpscutinQ1.Stickycore

inflationandacceleratinggrowthwillpreventratesfromgoingtoofarbelow

theTaylorrule.Incontrast,theECBispoisedtoholdratesat2.0%,withrisks

titledtothedownside.Onfiscalpolicy,theUSbenefitsfromatangiblegrowth

impulsesupportedbytheOneBigBeautifulBill’slooseningoffinancialconditionswhereasEurope’slingeringfiscalconcernsarevisibleinFrance’sstruggletocut

spending(leavingdeficitsnear–5.1%ofGDP)andcontributetohigherlong-termyields.Germany’sfiscaldeficitissettoreach-4.0%ofGDPin2026after-3.1%ofGDPin2025,thehighestinmorethanadecadeoutsidethepandemic.

•Corporatesaregoingthedistancein2026withstrongmomentumUSearningsrose+15%inQ32025,andglobalAIcapexissettoreachUSD571bn.Europe

hasrebounded,ledbytechandpharma,whileautolags.Balancesheetsare

solid,thoughrefinancingwillbecostlier.Asmanycorporateshavedeleveraged,theyhaveroomtoincreaseborrowingtofundnecessarycapex.Insolvenciesareexpectedtoincreaseby+3%in2026,especiallyintheUSandEurope.Despite

robustfundamentals,geopoliticalfragmentationanddefaultrisksstillcloudtheoutlook.

•Despitebeinginthelatecycle,capitalmarketsarestillgoingforgold.A

volatileyeardrawstoaclose,butglobalequitiespostedathirdyearofrobust

gains.Ratesremainedbroadlystable,giventheheavynews-flow,whiledollar

theweaknesscometoahaltinthesecondhalfof2025.Beneaththesurface,

however,cautionprevails:Defensestocksandgoldemergedas2025’sstandoutperformers-notAI.Lookingahead,weexpectratesandcurrenciestotrade

largelysidewaysandequityreturnstoslowbutnotfalterastheAIboom

continuesataslowerpace.Weseeacriticaljunctureforprivatemarketsin2026:Risingenergyandgridinvestment,theongoingAIboomandshiftingreal-estatevaluesareclarifyingwherelong-termvalueisreturning,evenasweakerassetsshowstressinamoremainstreammarket.Inthisenvironmentofstructural

demandandselectivepressure,disciplinedinvestorsfocusingonresilientcashflowsandearlypositioningacrossprivatemarketsarebestplacedtocapturedurable,risk-adjustedreturns.

•Thefollowingdownsiderisksneedtobeconsidered:institutional,geopoliticalandfinancial.Firstly,institutionalrisks,includingcentralbankindependence,

protectionismandelectionoutcomes,increasethelikelihoodofnegativepolicyshifts.Secondly,geopoliticalrisksandnationalsecurityprioritieswillcontinuetocausevolatility.Finally,financialrisks,suchasthepossibilityofanAI-equitycorrection,renewedde-dollarizationpressures,turbulenceinprivatecredit

marketsandconcernsoverthesustainabilityofpublicdebt,willcontinuetoincreasethroughout2026,pushingthelimitsofabenignlatefinancialcycle.

17December2025

5

Globaloutlook:Exceedingprevious

expectationsbutdownsiderisksremain

GlobalGDPgrowthisexceedingexpectations:We

nowexpectittoreach+2.9%in2026followingarobust+3%in2025.The+0.4ppupwardrevisioninourforecast

islargelydrivenbytheUSandChina,whichtogether

accountforovertwo-thirdsoftheadjustment.IntheUS,

thenegativeimpactofthetradewarhasbeensignificantlyreduced,witharevisedestimateof-0.6ppin2025,down

fromthe-1.6ppprojectedbackinQ2.Thisstemsfrom

strategictradedealsandsector-specifictariffreductions,whichhavesignificantlyreducedthetradeuncertainty

andtheimpactongrowthandinflation.Theinformationandcommunicationsector,particularlyAI,isamajor

contributor,drivingoverhalfofUSGDPgrowthin2025

(+1.1pp),atrendexpectedtopersistinto2026.Therest

isexplainedbythepositivefiscalimpulse(+0.4pp),a

highercreditimpulse(+0.3pp)andamoresignificant

positiveimpactfromAIinvestments(+0.2pp).Alltogether,thisraisesourUSGDPgrowthforecastto+2.5%.China

isalsooutperformingexpectations,fueledbystronger-

than-anticipatedexternaldemand,thankstostrategic

maneuverssuchasfrontloadingfromtheUS,tariff

circumvention,aweakercurrencyandexpandingmarketsharesinemergingmarkets.Eurozonegrowthisprojectedtoincreaseto+1.1%in2026followinga+1.4%risein2025.Germanyissettobreakfreefromitseconomicstagnation,acceleratingto+0.9%growthin2026,whileFrance'sGDPisexpectedtogrowby+1.1%,bolsteredbyarenewed

investmentcycleandadynamicexportlandscapedespiteongoingpoliticalchallenges.Althoughtheregionfaces

highfiscalconcernsaffectinglong-terminterestrates,itbenefitsfromlowershort-termratesthatarefacilitatingacredit-growthresurgence.

AllianzResearch

6

Table1:RealGDPgrowthforecasts,%

2025f2026f2027f

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.1

2.5

2.0

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.2

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.1

1.4

0.2

0.9

1.3

0.8

1.1

1.1

0.6

0.8

1.0

2.9

2.1

2.0

2.3

2.6

2.7

3.4

3.8

2.6

0.9

2.0

2.0

3.4

3.5

3.8

4.5

4.2

4.0

5.0

4.7

4.4

1.4

1.4

1.0

7.4

6.5

6.3

2.5

3.1

3.3

3.8

3.9

3.7

3.9

3.9

4.0

1.1

1.3

1.5

Growth(yearly%)

Global

USA

LatinAmerica

Brazil

UK

Eurozone

GermanyFrance

ItalySpain

CentralandEasternEurope

Poland

Russia

Türkiye

Asia-Pacific

China

JapanIndia

MiddleEast

SaudiArabia

Africa

SouthAfrica

2024

2.9

2.8

1.8

3.0

1.1

0.9

-0.5

1.1

0.5

3.5

2.3

3.0

4.3

3.3

4.1

5.0

-0.2

6.7

1.8

2.0

3.4

0.5

2023

2.9

2.9

2.1

3.2

0.3

0.6

-0.7

1.6

1.1

2.5

1.3

0.2

4.1

5.1

4.5

5.4

1.2

8.8

2.1

0.6

2.7

0.8

Sources:LSEGDatastream,AllianzResearch

Yet,severalrisksarelooming.USinstitutionaluncertainty,includingFederalReserveleadershipchanges,tariff

fluctuationsandmid-termelectionoutcomes,increasetheprobabilityofanegativepolicyshift.Geopoliticaltensionsmayintensify,rangingfromanescalationinUkraine

includingaNATO-Russiainvolvementtoabreakdown

oftheUS-Chinatradetruce,withtariffspotentially

reaching100%.FinancialrisksincludeapossibleAI-equitycorrection,renewedde-dollarizationpressures,turbulenceinprivatecreditmarketsand“Truss-style”instabilityin

governmentbondmarketsinhigh-deficiteconomies.InEurope,thelackofreforminGermanycouldlimiteffortstostimulateeconomicgrowthwithfiscalstimulus.Anyofthesefactorscouldleadtolessgrowth,unfavorableinflationdynamicsandmarketinstability.

FiscalpolicydivergencewillpersistbetweentheUS

andEurozone.IntheUS,fiscalpolicyissettobelessofadragongrowthin2026.Thefederaldeficitisexpectedtoincreaseonlymarginally,reaching-6.7%ofGDP.

Highercustomsreceipts(+USD75bnexpectedrelativeto2025)andwelfarespendingcutsshouldlargelyoffsettheimpactoftaxreductionsandincreasedspendingondefenseandhomelandsecurity.Thiswillshiftthefiscalstancefromnegative(-0.9%ofGDP)in2025tobroadlyneutralin2026.TheEurozone’sfiscaloutlookismarked

bydivergingnationalpositionsandshapedbythedual

challengeofdeployingNGEUfundsandadaptingtonewsecuritypriorities.Theslowpaceoffundabsorptionandtheneedtobalanceeconomicrecoverywithincreased

spendingpressuresaretestingpolicymakers’ability

tosustaingrowthandresilience.Germanyispursuing

anexpansionarystance,withmajorinfrastructure

investments,butslowimplementationandadditional

fiscalpressuresarelimitingtheimmediateimpacton

growth.Francecontinuestograpplewithalargedeficit

andfiscaluncertaintyaseffortstoconsolidatepublic

financesarecomplicatedbypoliticalpressuresand

competingbudgetarydemands.Italyhasadopteda

prudentapproachbutfacesfiscalchallengesasNGEU

supportphasesoutandnewcommitmentsemerge.In

Spain,robusteconomicgrowthisovershadowedby

politicalgridlock,withthegovernmentunabletopassa

newbudgetandatriskofmissingoutonthefullbenefitsofitsNGEUallocation.Nevertheless,theoverallEurozonefiscalstanceisexpectedtoremainbroadlyneutralin2026and2027.

17December2025

7

Figure1:Fiscalbalance,%ofGDP

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

USUK

-10

GermanyFrance

-12

-14

ItalySpain

-16

20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

Sources:LSEGDatastream,AllianzResearch

Amidatransformativeyearforglobalsupplychains,globaltradeshowedresiliencethrough2025,andwillcontinuetodosothroughthebeginningof2026.Yet,

thenegativeimpactofhighertariffsshouldultimately

translateintoslowergrowth.Reroutingandtrade

diversificationmeantthathigherUStariffrateshavehadamilderimpactonglobaltradethanpreviouslyfeared.

Additionally,therehasbeenavisiblesofteninginthetoneofUStradepolicysinceautumn.Inthiscontext,global

tradewilllikelycontinuetoshowresiliencethroughthe

endof2025andwehaveraisedourforecastforfull-yeargrowthinvolumetermsby+1.5ppsto+3.5%(seeFigure4).ThedealsandsofteninginUStradepolicyexplain0.1ppoftherevision,andstrategicfrontloading,reroutingand

tradediversificationexplainanother0.3pp.Withmore

resilienttradeingoodsthanpreviouslyexpected,trade

inserviceshasalsobeensupported,contributinganother0.3pp.ThecontinuedoutperformanceofAI-relatedsectorsandtheresilienceoftheglobaleconomyhavealsoliftedglobaltradethisyearmorethanwehadforecast.This

resilienceshouldcontinueinthebeginningof2026andweexpectgrowth+1.3%forthefullyear,withpotentialupsideasuncertaintypersists.NorthAmericaandAsia-Pacificareexpectedtofacethelargestdecelerationsthrough2026,whileEuropeshouldcomeoutamongthemostresilient,

drivenbyimprovementsinGermanyandtheUKcomparedtothepreviousyear(seeFigure2).

Figure2:Globaltradeofgoodsandservices,annualgrowth,%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

APAC(excl.China)

China

World

Europe

LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Africa&MiddleEast

4.2%

3.50%

2.0%

1.1%1.3%

20232024202520262027

-1%

Sources:CPB,AllianzResearch

8

AllianzResearch

Figure3:Totalglobalcontainervolume,thousandTEUs

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

AsiaEuropeNorthAmericaOther

13585

3600

1195

2049

6740

16256

4467

1039

1988

8763

October2017October2025

Sources:CTS,AllianzResearch

GlobalcontainertradeisshiftingtowardsAsiaand

emergingregions,whilefreightpricesnormalizefrompost-pandemicextremes.BetweenOctober2017andOctober2025,globalvolumesroseby+19.7%(from

13.5mnto16.2mntwenty-footequivalentunits(TEUs)),almostentirelydrivenbyAsia(+2.0mnTEUs,liftingits

sharefrom50%to54%)and“other”regions(from3.6mnto4.45mn),whileEuropeslippedslightly(from2.04mnto

1.98mn)andNorthAmericafellmoresharply(from1.19mnto1.04mn).ComparingOctober2024andOctober2025

showsthattraderelationshipsaregraduallyrebalancing:Intra-Asiaflowsrosefrom27.1%to27.6%ofworldTEUs,

whileAsia–NorthAmericaandAsia–Europedeclined

(from12.8%to11.5%and9.6%to9.1%,respectively).SinceJanuary2024,CTSfreightindiceshavemovedfroma

briefpost-pandemicrepricingphaseintoaclearcooling.Afterthesharp2021–22surge(Asiaat270,totalaround

200),pricesfellbacktowardtheirlong-run60–80range

in2023beforeasmaller,Asia-ledreboundin2024,whichleftindicesstillrelativelyelevatedinOctober2024(Asiaat103,Europeat74,NorthAmericaat64).Sinceearly

2025,however,theadjustmenthasturneddecisively

disinflationary:FromApriltoOctober2025,theglobal

indexdeclinedfrom78to73,pulleddownmainlybyAsia(from86to80),withEuropeandNorthAmericaeasingfurtherto67and61.A70%volume/30%weightedpricecompositethereforestillsignalsexpandingtradein

levelterms,butmomentumhasclearlyrolledover:Themixedindicatorpeaksinmid-2024whenhighervolumescoincidewithtemporarilyfirmerrates,thenturnsmildlycontractionarybylate2025asfallingpricesandsofter

AsiangrowthmorethanoffsetresilientNorthAmericanvolumes,leavingNorthAmericaastheonlyregionwithamodestlypositivemixedsignal.

17December2025

9

Figure4:AIboom,servicesandreroutingbehindglobaltradeupsiderevision,%

4.0

3.5

3.50.3

0.3

3.0

0.3

0.1

0.32.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Q3forecast

Globalgrowth

upgradeLowertariffs

Firmmitigation

strategiesServices

AIinvestment

surgeQ4forecast

Sources:AllianzResearch

Goinginto2026,softertradegrowthwilllikelybedrivenbyaslowdownofAsianexports,inparticularfrom

Taiwan,Thailand,Indonesia,VietnamandChina.Yet,ongoingnegotiationsoffree-tradeagreements,includingthosewiththeEU,India,ASEANandtheUAE,aswell

astheimplementationofalreadysignedones(suchas

theEU-MERCOSUR),couldprovideupsideriskstotradegrowthin2026,andinthelong-termcouldcontributetoshiftingtheshapeofglobaltradeinthefuture.Theyearaheadwillnotbewithoutsurprises.WithtariffslikelytobeoverturnedbytheUSSupremeCourt,theWhiteHousemayresorttoothertools,suchasSection338orSection122,tokeepthematahighlevel.Inparallel,ongoing

Section232investigationscouldresultintheintroductionoftariffsonnewproducts.

IntheUS,theeffectivetariffratelikelyremainedaround11-12%inOctober,stillatthehighestlevelsincethe

1940s.Butthereislikelylimitedroomforfurtherupsidegoingforward:Weestimateitcouldreach14%atmostbyyearend.DataoncollecteddutiesinUSDtermsarealreadyavailableuntilOctober,butimportsdataarenotyetavailabletocalculatetheactualtariffrate.Judgingfromavailablesurveydata(e.g.theimportsindexoftheISMmanufacturingsurvey)andtakingintoaccountthetrendinthepastfewmonths,theeffectiveUStariffrateislikelytohaveonlymarginallycreepedupinSeptember

andOctober,fromthe11.2%reportedforAugust.In

comparison,wehadestimatedatheoreticaltariffrateof17%inSeptemberand15%inOctober,withthegaplikelyexplainedbycontinuedmitigationstrategiesfromfirms.

Thisgapislikelytocontinuetodeclineuntiltheendoftheyearascorporateadaptativebehaviorsruntheircourse.

Moreover,anumberofrecentchangesinUStradepolicyhavefurtherloweredourestimateofthetheoreticaltariffrateto14%.Mostimportantly,thelistofgoodsthatare

exemptfromUSreciprocaltariffshasbeenexpanded

further,mainlyincludingmorefoodproducts.ThisisaclearsignofUStariffpolicysofteningastheUSconsumerstartstofeeltheeffects:USinflationstoodat3%inSeptember

(withcategoriessuchascoffeeandbeefseeingthefastestaccelerationsincethebeginningoftheyear)ascompaniesseemtobepassingonthehighercosts.Weestimate

thatinflationlikelyrosefurtherto3.2%inOctober.In

November,theWhiteHouseissuedanewexecutiveorderthatreducedfoodtariffsacrosstheboard.

AllianzResearch

10

Inflationandcentralbanks:divergenceahead

Weexpectinflationtoremainfirmlyaroundtarget

intheEurozone,butovershootstopersistintheUS,

theUKandJapan.IntheEurozone,moderategrowth,

anchoredprivate-sectorinflationexpectationsandlowerenergypriceshaveweighedoninflationthroughout2025,keepingitaroundthe2%ECBtargetformostoftheyear.Thereisnotableregionaldispersion,though,withSpain,theNetherlandsandothersmallercountriesrecording

higherpricegrowth.Weexpectinflationdispersiontofadethrough2026.Eurozoneinflationisexpectedto

slightlyundershootonthebackoflowenergyprices

feedingthrough,butshouldremaincloseto2%.IntheUS,inflationhashoveredaround2.8-3.0%recently,andweexpectlittleprogresstowardstheFed’s2%targetby2027amidgoodgrowthmomentum,limitedspare

capacityandhighprivatesectormedium-terminflation

expectations.IntheUK,weakeninggrowthmomentum

andalooseninglabormarketshouldhelptomoderate

lingeringinflationarypressuresin2026,asindicatedin

businesssurveys.Inflationisexpectedtoslipbelow3%byearly2026andapproach2%byend2026.InJapan,whilethesupplementarybudgetannouncedbythegovernmentinlate-Novemberislikelytotemporarilyreduceheadlineinflation(throughenergysubsidiesandtaxcuts),itshouldalsostimulatedomesticdemandinanalreadyinflationarycontextofweakcurrencyandelevatedwagegrowth.Coreinflationislikelytoremainabove2%inourforecastperiod,whileheadlineinflationisexpectedtoaverage1.9%in

2026and2.4%in2027(after3.2%in2025).

Table2:Inflationforecasts,yearly,%

Inflation(yearly%)

Global

2023

6.1

2024

4.5

2025f

4.0

2026f

3.5

2027f

3.0

USA

LatinAmerica

Brazil

UK

Eurozone

GermanyFrance

ItalySpain

CentralandEasternEurope

Poland

RussiaTürkiye

Asia-Pacific

ChinaJapanIndia

MiddleEast

SaudiArabia

Africa

SouthAfrica

4.1

14.8

4.6

7.3

5.4

6.0

4.9

5.6

3.5

11.0

11.4

5.9

53.9

3.1

0.2

3.3

5.7

16.3

2.5

16.9

5.9

3.0

16.6

4.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.0

1.0

2.8

3.9

3.8

8.4

58.5

2.2

0.2

2.7

5.0

10.4

1.5

15.0

4.4

2.8

11.1

5.3

3.4

2.1

2.2

0.9

1.6

2.6

5.0

3.9

8.9

35.0

1.3

0.0

3.2

2.5

17.3

1.9

11.5

3.1

3.0

9.2

4.3

2.6

1.9

2.1

1.3

1.7

2.1

3.9

3.1

6.1

25.1

1.6

0.4

1.9

4.2

12.4

2.6

9.1

3.0

2.8

4.9

3.1

2.3

2.0

2.2

1.6

2.0

2.1

3.2

2.9

2.6

15.7

1.9

0.9

2.4

4.4

9.1

2.2

7.5

3.1

Sources:national,AllianzResearch

17December2025

11

USandEurozonelabormarketsbothshowsignsof

resilience,buttheirdynamicsaresomewhatdiverging.

IntheUS,labordemandhassoftenedsincethesummer,influencingrecentmonetarypolicymovesdespite

persistentinflation.Hiringisweigheddownbypolicy

uncertainty,tariffpressuresandweaknon-techsector

demand(non-ICTindustriesrepresent93%oftheeconomybutcontributedlessthanhalfofGDPgrowthinearly

2025).Weaklaborforcegrowth,partlyduetotighter

immigration,haskeptunemploymentfromrisingfaster,

butrecentdatapointtotherateclimbingtoward4.7-

4.8%byMarch2026,upfrom4.4%inSeptember,beforestabilizing.Incontrast,theEurozonelabormarketremainsrobust,withunemploymentsteadyat6.4%foreight

months,supportinggrowthdespiteeconomicheadwinds.Employmentgrowthisexpectedtoslow,butasactivityaccelerates,productivityshouldimprove.Wagegrowthremainsstrongbutissettoeasegradually,helping

balancehouseholdincomesandinflation.Overall,theEurozone’sstableemploymentandmoderatingwagegrowthshouldsupportabalancedrecovery,withonlyaslightuptickinunemploymentexpectedin2026beforestabilizingin2027.

TheUSFedisexpectedtodeliveronefinalratecutin

Marchamidlabormarketweakness.Fromthatpoint

on,however,stickyinflationandgoodunderlyinggrowthmomentumshouldkeeppolicymakersonholdandshifttheirfocusbacktowardinflationrisks.Althoughthere

aresignsthatlabordemandhasstabilized,weexpectthepick-upoftheunemploymentratetocontinuethrough

early2026,whichwillkeeptheFedfocusedonlabormarketrisks.AfterapauseinJanuary,amidinternal

divisionswithintheFOMC,weexpecttheFedtodelivera25bpscutinMarch.Furtherout,goodgrowthmomentum,partlyfueledbymonetaryeasing,shouldstartto

reinvigoratelabordemand,easingtheFed’sconcerns.

Thefocuswillthenshiftbacktoinflationpersistence.

TheFedFundsratewouldsettleat3.5%upperbound.

However,withinternaldivisionsgrowingtherecouldbe

lessconsensusoverfuturedecisions.Thebalanceofdovesversushawkswillnotchangemuch,withthearrivalof

somehawkishregionalFedgovernorsinthe12-voting

memberCommitteeoffsettingaprobablyverydovishnewFedChairman.TheremovalofGovernorCook,ifvalidatedbytheSupremeCourt,couldnonethelesstipthebalancetowardslowerFedFundsratesthanweexpect.

TheECBwillremainonholdandcontrarytorecent

speechesandmarketpricing,wedonotseearatehikeasthemostlikelynextstep.TheECBisexpectedto

keepitsdepositrateunchangedat2.0%goingforward.

Whilethecentralbank’srecentspeechhasturnedmorehawkishandmarketsarepricinginhikesasthenext

move,wedisagree.Eveninthenearter