野村-中国：2026年猪肉价格会成为通胀驱动因素吗？-China：Will pork prices become an inflation driver in 2026-20260313

【价值目录】网整理：

https://www.valuelist

AsiaInsights

GlobalMarketsResearch

13March2026

Economics-Asiaex-Japan

China:Willporkpricesbecomeaninflationdriverin2026?

Sinceporkpricestendtobecyclical,the21%fallinporkpricesin2025evokessome

hopethatpricescouldreboundin2026andhelpChinaescapefromdeflation.However,theabsenceofseasonalporkpriceincreasesinthelead-uptotheLunarNewYear

holidaypointstoanotheryearofmutedporkpriceinflation.Withthechangingdynamicsofporksupplyanddemand,weexpectporkpricestobemuchlesscyclicalthantheyoncewere.Astableporksupply,togetherwithaweakdemand,couldprecludeanysharp

reboundinporkprices.Still,wedonotexpectafurtherdeclineofporkpricesafterthe

sizabledropin2025andconsideringhighertransportationcostsduetotheriseoffuel

prices.Weexpectporkpricestorisebyamoderate0.3%in2026afterthe6.1%declinein2025.Givenitsweightingof1.9%intheCPIbasket,thepatternofporkpricesthisyearcouldcontribute0.1pptothechangeinCPIinflation,whichweexpecttoriseto0.6%in2026from0.0%in2025.

Thepre-holidaypricesurgewasmuted

PorkpricesusuallysurgeaheadoftheLNYholiday,asfamiliessplurgeonfestivefeasts.Inrecentyears,however,theseasonalpriceuptickhasbecomelesssignificant.Inthelasttwoweeksbeforethisyear’sLNYholiday,porkpricescounterintuitivelydroppedby1.7%.Whilethismayhavebeenpartlyduetotheabundantsupply,itmayalsoreflectaweak

appetiteforlargespendingoncatering.Theabsenceofaseasonalpriceuptickinthelead-uptotheLunarNewYearholidayin2026impliesanotheryearofmutedporkpriceinflation.

ThediminishedroleofporkintheCPIbasket

PorkinflationusedtoplayanimportantroleinChina’sheadlineCPIinflation,duetoits

highpricevolatilityandlargerweightingintheCPIbasket.Chinaeconomistshadto

becomeexpertsonpigfarmingtomakeaccurateCPIinflationforecasts,butthishasnotbeenthecasesincetheendoftheAfricanSwineFever.Asporkpriceshavestabilizedatrelativelylowlevelssince2021,theaveragemonthlyweightingofporkintheCPIbasketimpliedbytheNBSyear-on-yeardatahasdeclinedfromthepeakof3.2%in2020to1.9%in2026.

Factorsbehindthedepressedporkprices

Onthesupplyside,webelieveporkproductionwilllikelyremainstableandabundantin2026.First,thereproductiveefficiencyofthebreedingherdhasincreasednotablysincetheAfricanSwineFever,thankstotechnologyupgradesandindustryconsolidation.

Second,thecapacityofpigproductionhasexpandedduetothestructuralshifttowardslarge-scalefarminginthehogfarmingindustry.Ontheotherhand,porkdemandis

weakeningonslowingincomegrowthformid-and-low-incomehouseholdsamidthe

propertysectordownturn,depressedcateringgrowthduetoausteritymeasures,aswellasevolvinghouseholdpreferences.

ResearchAnalysts

AsiaEconomics

HannahLiu-NIHK

hannah.liu@

+85222521082

TingLu-NIHK

ting.lu@

+85222521306

ProductionComplete:2026-03-1303:33UTC

SeeAppendixA-1foranalystcertification,importantdisclosuresandthestatusofnon-USanalysts.

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Nomura|AsiaInsights【价值目录3a整rc理h2：026

Pre-holidaypricesurgeshavebecomeincreasinglymuted

TheseasonalpricechangesaheadoftheLunarNewYear(LNY)holidayisanimportantgaugeofeconomicactivity.TheLNYholidaycapturesthemomentwhenmigrantworkers,everydayfamiliesandthebroadermassmarketwrapupayearoftoilandsplurgeon

festivitiestoreuniteandcelebrate.AstheChinesefolksayinggoes,"butcherapigto

preparefortheNewYearfeast"(腊月二十六杀猪割年肉),demandforporkusuallystartsafterwintersolsticeandspikesaheadoftheLNYholiday.

Inrecentyears,however,theseasonalpriceuptickhasbecomelesssignificant.In2022-25,aftertheAfricanSwineFever(excluding2024whensupplywastemporarilydisruptedbyextremeweather),theaveragepricechangefrom30daysaheadoftheholiday

towardstheholidayhasdroppedto0.6%from2.9%in2015-2018(Figure1).Thetepidpre-holidaypricesurgereflectsnotonlyamplesupplyamidthenationalfoodsecuritydrive,butalsolessenthusiasmfromthedemandside.

Thisyear,porkpricesexhibitedevenmorepronouncedweaknessinthelead-uptothe

LNYholiday.AccordingtodatafromtheMinistryofAgricultureandRuralAffairs(MARA),wholesaleporkpricesaveragedonlyRMB18.4/kginthemonthbeforetheLNYholiday,notablybelowRMB23.7/kgin2025(-18.9%).Inthelasttwoweeksbeforethisyear’sLNYholiday,porkpricescontradictedtheusualpatternbydroppingby1.7%.Whilethismayhavebeenpartlyduetoabundantsupply,itmayalsoreflectaweakappetiteforlarge

spendingoncatering.Theabsenceofaseasonalpriceuptickinthelead-uptotheLunarNewYearholidayin2026impliesanotheryearofmutedporkpriceinflation.

PorkpriceshaveremaineddepressedsincetheAfricanSwineFever

TheoutbreakofAfricanSwineFeverin2019triggeredanacuteshortageinporksupply

anddrovepricestorecordhighs.Averageannualwholesaleporkpricessurgedfrom

RMB18.6/kgin2018toRMB28.8/kgin2019andRMB44.9/kgin2020(Figure2).Since

early2021,astheviruswascontained,porksupplyhasgraduallyreturnedtonormal.Porkpricesplungedby63%fromthepeakofRMB47.6/kginJanuary2021toRMB17.5/kgin

October2021.

SincetheendofAfricanSwineFever,porkpriceshavegenerallystayedatcomparativelylowlevels,despitesomefluctuations.AverageannualwholesaleporkpricesfellsteadilyfromRMB28.3/kgin2021toRMB25.8/kgin2022andRMB20.8/kgin2023.Followingatemporaryuptickinporkpricesin2024,thepaceofdeclineacceleratedin2025,with

averagewholesaleporkpricesfallingby13.2%toRMB20.1/kgin2025fromRMB23.2/kgin2024.InbothNovemberandDecember2025,averagewholesaleporkpricesdippedbelowRMB18/kg,hittingthelowestmonthlyaveragesincemid-2018.

Fig.1:Seasonalchartofwholesaleporkprices

Note:TrepresentsChineseNewYearholiday.2020-2022excludedduetodistortionsfromtheAfricanSwineFever.

Source:MARA,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.2:Historicalwholesalesporkprices

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

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ThediminishedroleofporkintheCPIbasket

Traditionally,porkinflationplayedasanimportantroleinChina’sCPIinflation,duetoitshighpricevolatilityandmeaningfulweightingintheCPIbasket.ChinaeconomistshadtobecomeexpertsonpigfarmingtomakeaccurateCPIinflationforecasts,butthishasnotbeenthecasesincetheAfricanSwineFeverbreakoutwascontained.Asporkprices

returnedtonormal,theaveragemonthlyweightingofporkintheCPIbasketimpliedbytheNBSyear-on-yeardatahasdeclinedfromthepeakof3.2%in2020to1.4%in2025

(Figure3).

On11February,theNBSannouncedonce-in-five-yearrevisionstoitsCPIbasket.Forthefirsttime,theNBSdisclosedtheweightingsofeachmajorcomponentinitsCPIbasket

ratherthanonlyprovidingthechangeofweightings.Theweightingofporkunderthe

revisedbasketis1.9%.AlthoughtheNBSdidnotprovidethechangeofweightingfromthe2020baseperiod,webelievethisshouldrepresentaslightdownwardrevision.

Accordingtoourestimate,theaveragemonthlyweightingofporkintheCPIbasketimpliedbytheNBSyear-on-yeardataduring2020-24was2.0%.Thatsaid,the1.9%weightingstillrepresentsasharpreboundfromtheaverageof1.4%in2025.

TheNBSyear-on-yeardataforJanuaryandFebruary2026impliedamonthlyweightingof2.0%forbothmonths,whichalignscloselywiththerevisedweightingof1.9%.Historically,theweightingsofporktendtolagtheporkpriceinflationbyoneyear.Webelievethe

recentincreaseintheweightinglikelyreflectsalaggedeffectfromthetemporarysurgeofporkpricesaroundmid-to-late2024.Astheporkpriceinflationdroppedsharplyin2025,webelievetheimpliedmonthlyweightingofporkintheCPIbasketcoulddropfurtherlaterin2026.

ExpectationsforporkpricesandimpactonCPIin2026

Theextremelydepressedporkpricesin2025evokesomehopethattheycouldreboundnotablyin2026undertheircyclicalnatureandboostheadlineCPIinflation.Indeed,porkpricesdidexhibitsomeupwardmomentuminJanuary,withwholesalepricesrisingby7.9%toRMB18.66/kgon28JanuaryfromthetroughofRMB17.35/kgon24December

2025.However,thismomentumquicklyfadedinthelead-uptotheLunarNewYearon17February,withwholesalepricesdroppingby2.9%from28Januaryto16February.Themutedpricesinthepre-holidayseasonimplyanotheryearofmutedporkpriceinflationin2026.

Intheabsenceofexternaldisruptionslikeviraloutbreaks,wedonotexpectasharpporkpricereboundin2026.Weexpectporkpriceinflationtoimproveto0.3%in2026from-6.1%in2025.Givenitscurrentweightingof1.9%intheCPIbasket,thereduceddrag

fromporkpricedeflationcouldcontribute0.1pptotheimprovementinheadlineCPI

inflation,whichweexpecttoriseto0.6%in2026from0.0%in2025.Below,weprovideourrationalefortheseforecasts.

Fig.3:PorkweightandporkpriceinflationintheCPIbasket

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.4:Theprofitabilityofhograising

Note:Ahog-to-cornpriceratioof6:1representsthebreakeventhresholdforprofitablehogproduction.

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

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Nomura|AsiaInsights【价值目录3a整rc理h2：026

Supply-sidefactorsbehinddepressedporkprices

Fromthesupplyside,thereareseveralfactorspreventingporkpricesfromsurging

materially.First,thereproductiveefficiencyofthebreedingherdhasincreasednotably

sinceAfricanSwineFeverwascontained,thankstotechnologyupgradesandindustry

consolidation.Theaveragenumberofpigsweanedpersowperyear(PSY)hasincreasedfrom19in2018tonearly24in2025,accordingtoWePig.Duetothisenhancedefficiencyinpigproduction,theMARAin2024reviseddownthenormalretentionlevelforthestockofbreedingsowsfrom41mnheadto39mnhead.

Second,thecapacityofpigproductionhasexpandedduetostructuralshifttowardslarge-scalefarminginthehogfarmingindustry.Thepenetrationratioofhogenterpriseswith

annualsalesabove500headhasincreasedfrom49%in2018to72%in2025,accordingtoFrost&Sullivan(Figure5).Industrializationhasbroughtstandardizationandstabilitytothehogfarmingindustry.Astheindustrybecomesmoreconsolidatedwithlarge-scale,

professionallymanagedoperationsreplacingsmall-scalehogfarms,productionprocesseshavebecomemorestandardized,withproductionvolumesbecomingmorepredictable

andstable.

Datashowthatthenumberofbreedingsows,whichleadporksupplyby10months,hasremainedabovethenormalinventorylevelof39mnheadsetbytheMARAsinceearly

2025(Figure7).Growthinporkproductionvolumesincreasedto4.7%y-o-yin2025from

-1.5%in2024(Figure8).Althoughthehog-to-cornpriceratiohasremainedbelowsix,thetraditionalbreakevenpointabovewhichhog-raisingbusinessesbecomeprofitableand

porkproducersareincentivizedtoincreasethenumberofbreedingsows,webelievethechanceofasubstantialcutinporksupplyishighlyunlikely.

Fig.5:Thepercentageofpigslaughteredfromindustrialisedbreedingfarms

Note:Industrialisedbreedingfarmsaredefinedbythosefarmswithannualslaughtervolumesabove500head.

Source:Frost&Sullivan

Fig.6:Top10ChineseHogFarmingEnterprisesby2025SlaughterVolume

Rank

Company

2025Slaughter

Volume

(10,000heads)

Market

Share

(%)

1

MuyuanFoods

7,798

10.8

2

WensFoodstuff

4,048

5.6

3

TwinsGroup

2,643

3.7

4

NewHope

1,755

2.4

5

ChiaTai(China)

1444

2.0

6

DekonAgribusiness

1,083

1.5

7

ZhengbangTechnology

854

1.2

8

TianbangFoods

666

0.9

9

COFCOJoycome

603

0.8

10

Tangrenshen

533

0.7

CR10

30

Source:Companystatements,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Weakeningdemandforporkconsumption

China'sporkconsumptionhasgraduallystabilizedafterexperiencingperiodicfluctuations.In2024,China'sporkconsumptionreached58.2mntons,andfrom2025to2029,China'sporkconsumptionitexpectedtofluctuatearoundapproximately59mntons,enteringa

relativelystableconsumptionphaseoverall(Figure9).AccordingtotheNBS,Chinesehouseholds’averageporkconsumptionplateauedat30.5kgpercapitain2023and

decreasedto28.1kgin2024(Figure10).

Therearethreereasonsbehindweakeningporkconsumption.First,theprolonged

propertycrisishasseverelydiminishedhouseholdincomes,especiallyamonglow-and-middle-incomegroupsthatpreviouslyworkedintheconstructionorpropertyindustry.

Thoselow-incomefamiliesandmigrantworkersaremoreprice-sensitiveandrelyheavilyonporkasanaffordableproteinstaple.Theytendtoprioritizeessentialsandcheaper

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Nomura|AsiaInsights【价值目录3a整rc理h2：026

alternativesovermeatvolume.

Second,thenewausterityruleimposedinMay2025discouragedhouseholdsfromdiningout.AccordingtotheNBS,growthincateringservicesslowedto3.2%in2025from5.3%in2024.Asconsumersshiftfromrestaurantstohomecooking,totalporkdemandoftenfalls.Thisisbecauserestaurantandcateringmealstendtoinvolvelargerportions,morevariety,andsignificantlyhigherfoodwasterates.

Third,Chinesedietshavediversifiedsignificantlyasincomesroseandhealthawarenessincreased.Pork,traditionallythedominantmeat,hassteadilylostrelativeshare.Risinghealthconsciousness,particularlyinurbanareasandamongyoungerconsumers,favorsmorebalancedor“lighter”proteins.Porkissometimesviewedashigherinfatcomparedtochickenorfish.AccordingtoOxforddata,pork’sshareofChinesemeatconsumptionhasfallenfrom80%tobelow60%overthepasttwodecades.

Fig.7:Numberofbreedingsowstock

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.9:Percapitaporkconsumptionvolume

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.8:Domesticproductionvolumeofpork

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Fig.10:Apparentconsumptionvolumeofpork

Note:Apparentconsumptioniscalculatedbyaddingproductionwithnetexportsvolumes.

Source:Wind,NomuraGlobalEconomics.

Nomura|AsiaInsights【价值目录3a整rc理h2：026

6

AppendixA-1

ThisreporthasbeenproducedbyNomuraInternational(HongKong)Ltd.(NIHK),HongKong.

SeeDisclaimersforNomuraGroupentitydetails.

AnalystCertification

We,HannahLiuandTingLu,herebycertify(1)thattheviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersreferredtointhisResearchreport,(2)nopartofourcompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisResearchreportand(3)nopartofourcompensationistiedtoanyspecificinvestmentbankingtransactionsperformedbyNomuraSecuritiesInternational,Inc.,NomuraInternationalplcoranyotherNomuraGroup

company.

ImportantDisclosures

Onlineavailabilityofresearchandconflict-of-interestdisclosures

NomuraGroupresearchisavailableon

/research

,Bloomberg,CapitalIQ,Factset,LSEG.

Importantdisclosuresmaybereadat

/research/m/DisclosuresorrequestedfromNomuraSecuritiesInternational

,Inc.Ifyouhaveanydifficultieswiththewebsite,pleaseemailgrpsupport@forhelp.

Theanalystsresponsibleforpreparingthisreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactorsincludingthefirm'stotalrevenues,aportionofwhichisgeneratedbyInvestmentBankingactivities.Unlessotherwisenoted,thenon-USanalystslistedatthefrontofthisreportarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystsunderFINRArules,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofNSI,andmaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcoveredcompanies,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

NomuraGlobalFinancialProductsInc.(NGFP)NomuraDerivativeProductsInc.(NDP)andNomuraInternationalplc.(NIplc)areregisteredwiththeCommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissionandtheNationalFuturesAssociation(NFA)asswapdealers.NGFP,NDPI,andNIplcare

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,(g)NomuraSingaporeLtd.(‘NSL’),Singapore(Registrationnumber197201440E,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore)(h)NomuraAustraliaLtd.(‘NAL’),Australia

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