2026年人力资本优势：全球职场未来趋势研究报告-

TheHumanEdge

GlobalFutureofWorkTrends

Rapid

Relearning

HybridSuperTeams

TheDrivingForces

ShapingtheWorkforce

Formorethan10years,wehavepartneredwithourclients

toexplorefourunderlyingforcesshapingthefutureofwork.

Thisyear’sresearchincludesinsightsfromsurveysofmore

than12,000workersand40,000employersacross41

countries.Asthepaceofchangeaccelerates,theseforces

areevolvingmorerapidlythaneverbefore.

ChangingTheSuccession

NormsCrisis

2

3

TheHumanEdge:FutureofWorkTrends

Hybrid

SuperTeams

Trend1:

RoleRedesign

Trend2:

AIAugmentation

Trend3:

BluntForceAutomation

Trend4:

GigGoesBig

Rapid

Relearning

Trend5:

AILiteracy

Trend6:

Pre-IndustrialSkills

Trend7:

ProductivityPush

Trend8:

UpskillingRenaissance

ChangingNorms

Trend9:

RTOMandates

Trend10:

DecliningTrust

Trend11:

EquityGaps

Trend12:

PowerSurge

TheSuccessionCrisis

Trend13:

TalentDroughts

Trend14:

DegreeDoubts

Trend15:

BrainDrains

Trend16:

LeadershipWanes

Hybrid

SuperTeams

Ratherthanexistinginatraditional,hierarchical structurefutureteamswillincludeamixofhuman,machine,andfreelancetalentandjobs willbeflexiblyreconfiguredwiththeuniquestrengthsofpeopleandAIinmind.

Trend1:RoleRedesign

Althoughsomejobsmayberenderedobsoletebyemergingtechnologies,manymorewillbereconfiguredtoincorporatetheuniquestrengthsofhumanworkersandAI-basedcomponents.WewillseemanyorganizationsmovefrominformaluseofAIinexistingjobstotargeted,workflow-specificuseinredesignedhumanroles.

31%

CustomerService

33%

Ethical

Judgement

30%

Team

Management

Onethirdof

employersworldwide

sayethicaljudgment,

customerserviceand

teammanagement

skillsarethemost

difficulttoautomate.2

WorkforceImplications

Withamandatefromthetop,jobredesignmusttakeplaceatthedepartmentlevel.It’sathoughtful,

objectives-drivenprocesswithcollaborationbetweenleadersandtheindividualemployeesdoingthework.Workforceplanningnowincludesbreakingdowntraditionaljobsintovalue-addedparts,assigningthose

partstohumanandAIpartners,andcreatingalignedjobcategoriesandroles.

39%

>>Today’sAction

Haveyoudocumentedthecriticaltasksassociatedwitheachjobandnoted

areaswheretechnologycouldbeefficientlyintegrated?

ofthecoreskillsworkersneedwillchangeby2030.1

LookingAhead

Thecorporateorganizationalcharthasnotchangedinmanydecades,butjobredesignwillrequireustorethinkthesizeofourcompaniesandhowmuchhierarchyisneededandfeasible.

1.

WorldEconomicForum

2.

ManpowerGroupEmploymentOutlookSurvey,Q22025

5

Trend2:AIAugmentation

Organizationswilldevelopandreplicateusecasesthatmovebeyond

usingbasicindustrialandsoftwareautomationforadministrativetasksandgenerativeAIforresearchandmeetingsummaries.Ratherthanservingaslimitedadd-ons,intelligentAIagentswillfullyparticipateineveryworkflow,workinginconcertwithhumansandwitheachother.

30%

AsAIadoptioncontinuestoscale,businessleaderssaytheirgreatestchallengesare:1

33%

34%

HighCosts

WorkforceSkillsGaps

DataPrivacyConcerns

>>Today,sAction

WhenyouintegrateanAI-basedcomponentintoatraditionally

human-drivenprocess,areyouengaginginchangemanagementpracticestoensureproperrolloutandadoption?

WorkforceImplications

AsAIagentstakeovermoretraditionallyhuman-drivenworkflows,knowledgeablehumansmustremaininthelooptopreventunexpectedAIbottlenecksand

mistakes,aswellasdilutedexpertise.Wewillredefinewhatitmeanstobeamanagerskilledinoptimizingthestrengthsofhumansandtechnology.

LookingAhead

AlthoughhumanswillworkwithmanytypesofAIagents,one“rideordie”

assistant-typemayemergebytheearly2030s.ThebondbetweenhumanandAIpartnersmayconstituteathirdrelationshipthatinvolvespersonalrapportand

blursthelinesbetweensimulatedandrealemotion.

1.

ManpowerGroupEmploymentOutlookSurvey,Q22025

6

Trend3:BluntForceAutomation

Manyleadersareconsideringwhatprocessescouldbe

automatedversuswhatwouldbemostbeneficialtoautomate,oftenhighlightingeffortstostreamlineoperationsinshareholdercommunications.Whileworkforcereductionshavebecomemorecommon,someleadersarebeginningtorehireemployeesafterrealizingthatcurrentautomationsolutionsmaynotbefully

Employersbelievethejobfunctionsthatwillchangethemostduetoautomationinthenextfiveyears:2

Tech

Manufacturing

Sales&Marketing

76%

71%

71%

61%

capableofoperatingindependently.ofemployersworldwideplanto

increaseautomationinvestments.1

WorkforceImplications

Bluntforceautomationreflectsshort-termthinkingandamisplacedbeliefthatautomationandAI-basedtechnologiescancategoricallyreplacehumanworkers.Withouteffectivejobredesignandhuman

oversight,businessesrunmostlybysmartmachinelaborwillquicklyfalter.

>>Today’sAction

Haveyoudiscussedhowworkersmightbeupskilledandredeployedbeforedecidingonalayoff?

LookingAhead

Fiveyearsfromnow,itwillbetypicaltoenterretailandotherbusinesslocationsandseefewtonopeopleinthespace.Today,wemustthinkthroughthehumanexperienceofthisdevelopment–whathappenstocustomersandotherstakeholderswhoneedsomethingcomplexandcan’tfindanyonetotalkto?

1.

MakingIndustrialandSoftwareAutomationFullPartnersatWork,Manpower

2.

ManpowerGroupEmploymentOutlookSurvey,Q32025

7

Trend4:GigGoesBig

Theglobalworkforceismovingquicklytowardthetrendofrapidtalent

assembly,orconstructingshort-termteamscomprisedofdifferent

employmentresources(e.g.,employees,contractors,freelancers,AI

agents)forthepurposeofsolvingaspecificbusinessproblem.Recognizingthatfewerfull-timeemployeesmeansfeweroverheadexpensesandan

increasedneedforagility,theseroleswilldeclineinprevalence.

By2027,uptohalftheworkforceinthedevelopedworldcouldparticipateinthegigeconomy.1

WorkforceImplications

Althoughgigandtemporarycareersmakesense,rewardingmostworkersthiswayrequiresasocietalshift.Mostworkersarenottrainedinhowtosetupandrunacontractcareer,don’thavetheinclinationormindsetforit,andrelyheavilyonfull-timeemployersforholisticcaresuchasmedicalandlifestylebenefits.

>>Today’sAction

Haveyouconsideredhowtheemploymentstructureofeachteammightvarybasedonthebusinessproblemthatneedstobesolved?

LookingAhead

Thedeclineofthefull-timerolewillresultinmanyhumanworkersfallingthroughthecracks,unabletoearnafamily-sustainingwageorprogressintheirskills.

Thismaypromptrenewedcallsforuniversalbasicincomeoranothertypeof

safetynettotaketheplaceofthefull-timeemployer.

27%ofGenZworkerscurrentlysupplementtheirprimaryincomewithpart-timeorgigwork.2

1.

OgilvyConsulting

2.

ManpowerGroupGlobalTalentBarometer,Jan2026

8

Rapid

Relearning

Thefutureofworkwillbewonbythosewho trulyqualifyasfastlearners.Workerswill continuallybecalledupontodevelopnewskillsinkeepingwithongoingAIintegration,andtheirjobeffectivenessandproductivitywillbescrutinizedlikeneverbefore.

Trend5:AILiteracy

Whenmentionedinjobdescriptionstoday,AIliteracyisanamorphousconcept.WewillseespecificcompetenciesassociatedwithAIliteraryorfluencyemerge,includingpromptengineeringforexistingsystems,criticalanalysisofAIinput,andethicaldeploymentofnewAI-basedworkflows.Farfromapanaceaforlazyhumans,trueAIliteracywillinvolvethinkingmore,notless.

WorkforceImplications

TheAIliteracyskillwillbeagreatdemocratizer,becauselearningitdoesn’trequireanadvanced

degree,andeveryonehasaccesstofreeonlinetraining.ThechallengeliesinensuringAIworkforcebestpracticesarestandardizedacrosscountries,regionsandevenindividualorganizations.

LookingAhead

AswecrystallizewhatwemeanbyAIliteracy,weriskincreasingtheskillsgapbetweenthosewho

haveitandthosewhodon’t.Inpreviousdigitaltransformations,womenandunderservedcommunitieswereoftenleftbehind.Businessleadersmustensurethesecommunitiescanfullyparticipateinthe

workplaceofthefutureasAIinnovationaccelerates.

>>Today,sAction

HowareyoutrainingemployeeswithlimitedexposuretoandenthusiasmforAI-basedtechnologies?

44%

Lessthanhalfofglobalworkersreceivedskills

traininginthepastsixmonths.1

1.

ManpowerGroupGlobalTalentBarometer,Jan2026

10

>>Today,sAction

Howareyoucapturingandtrackingpre-industrialskillsinyourskillstaxonomies?

WorkforceImplications

LookingAhead

Today’sworkforcetrainingtendstooveremphasizehardskillsthatarejob-specificandhaveashorthalf-life.Andcombinedwithaneducationsystemsetupsolearningmaybeobsoletebythetimeastudentgraduates,wewillcontinuetoexperienceskillsgapsuntilweteachhumanworkersskillsthatwillhelpthemsucceedinanyjob.

Employersworldwidesayethicaljudgmentisthemostdifficultskilltoautomate.2●

Aswerelymoreandmoreontechnologyforbasicorganizationalfunctioning,weincreasethe

probabilitythatwhensomethinggoeswrong,humanworkerswon’thavethecoreskillsorwherewithaltofixit.Byteachingourchildrenpre-industrialskillsinschool,wecanprotectourselvesagainstalackofdisasterpreparedness.

Trend6:Pre-IndustrialSkills

Pre-industrialskillsincludedcompetenciessuchasagriculture,survival,manualworkandprecisioncraftsmanship.Theyalso

includesoftskillssuchasproblem-solving,cognitiveflexibility,self-reflection,creativity,empathy,intuition,andinterpersonal

communication.Humanworkerswillneed

theseskillstodifferentiatethemselvesfromtheirAIteammatesandtokeeppacewiththedemandsofthemodernworld.

Sevenofthetoptenfastest-growingskillsworkers

willneedin2030aresoftskills.1

1.

WorldEconomicForumFutureofJobsReport2025

2.

ManpowerGroupEmploymentOutlookSurvey,Q22025

11

Trend7:ProductivityPush

Thedefinitionofwhatittakestobeconsideredcompetentatajobisshiftinginreal-timeandiscomplicatedbythefactthatmanyleadersthinkAIimplementationwillresultinimmediate

productivitygains.Asemployeesurveillancegrowsmoresophisticated,performancemetricsarebecomingmoreobjectivebutalsonarrowerinscope.

>>Today’sAction

Doyourcurrentperformanceevaluationandcompensationstructuresaccountforevolvingjobresponsibilities?

Theglobalproductivityimpactoflowemployeeengagementis$438billion.1

WorkforceImplications

63%

Humanworkersarecollapsingundertheweightofleaders’unrealisticexpectationsaboutAI’s

impactonproductivity.Today,it’smoretypicalforproductivitytodecreaseasemployeesstruggletoretrofitnewsystemsintoestablishedprocesses,performanceusingthesetoolsissubjective,andmanyworkersyearnforAImanagerssotheycanbeevaluatedimpartially.

LookingAhead

Wenowhaveanopportunitytoredesignperformanceandrewardssystemstomeasureconcretecontributionstoandlastingimpactontheorganization.Hopefully,bytheearly2030s,wewillseerecognitionandincentivesofferedinrealtimeforthespecificworkthatmatters,andanincreaseinimpactproductivity.

Sixintenworkersworldwidesaytheyareburnedout.2

1.

Gallup

2.

ManpowerGroupGlobalTalentBarometer,Jan2026

12

©ManpowerGroup1.

LinkedIn

2.

ManpowerGroupGlobalTalentBarometer,Jan2026

13

Trend8:UpskillingRenaissance

Upskilling,orteachingemployeesnewskillsrelevanttotheirexistingjobs,hasbecomemandatoryforallfrontlineandofficeworkerswhointerfacewithdigitalandAI-basedsystems.Organizationshave

outgrownthetraditionalonsiteLearning&Development(L&D)model,withavarietyofinternaland

externaloptionsfromwork-basedlearningviaapprenticeshipstotuitionreimbursementforcertificationsanddegreesatpartnerschools.

WorkforceImplications

Workerswiththebenefitoffull-timeemploymenthavetheadvantageofintelligentlearningmanagementsystemstoadviseonandprovideaccesstoupskillingactivities.However,governmentsupportis

neededtobridgetheupskillingopportunitygapforpart-time,freelance,andunemployedindividuals.

LookingAhead

Inthe2030s,manyhumanworkerswillbebroadlyupskilled,capableofmanagingavarietyofroleswithinanorganization.Aslearningagilitymovesintofirstplaceasthemostvaluablehumanattribute,peopleatalllifestageswillseekinnovativeandimmersivesolutionsforquickbutcomprehensiveskill

mastery,whicharelikelytoincludemetaversetrainingenvironmentsandindustryguilds.

91%

ofL&Dprosagreecontinuouslearningis

moreimportantthaneverforcareersuccess.1

62%

Mostworkers(62%)wanttopursuetheircareergoalsattheircurrentemployer.2

>>Today’sAction

Doyouencourageandsupport

microcredentialingandcertificationsforallemployeelevels?

Changing

Norms

Amidstanepidemicofsocialloneliness,geopoliticaldisruptions,andenvironmental stress,weareseeingthesystemswe knowandtrusthintatcollapse.Currentleadersyearntoturntheclockback.

Trend9:RTOMandates

Inadramaticreversalofpandemic-erapolicy,manymultinationalorganizationsarenowmandatingfive-dayreturn-to-office(RTO)policies.Someleadersarerequiringemployeestoworkinthesamephysicalofficeastheirteams(knownas“returntoteam”),whichrepresentsafurtherreversalofdistributedandremotework.

Femaleemployeesaresignificantlymorelikelytoleavepost-RTO,withaturnoverincreasenearly

3xhigherthanthatofmaleemployees.1

WorkforceImplications

Whilesomein-personcollaborationiscriticalforinnovation,leaderswhoinsistonrigidofficeattendanceandwhoremoveflexibilityfromworkarrangementsaresucceedingatpruningtheirhumanworkforces.Unfortunately,theycan’tchoosewholeaves,andit’softenthehighestperformerswhoseekmoreversatileemploymentelsewhere.

LookingAhead

OngoinggeopoliticalandclimatedisruptionswillrenderRTOvirtuallyimpossibleinthe

2030s.Asthetrailblazermillennialsbeginleadingglobalcompanies,RTOpolicieswill

relax,andmanyfull-timeknowledgeworkerswillreturntodistributedworkinthirdplaces.

>>Today’sAction

AreyouusingyourownretentionandproductivitydatatoassesstheutilityofRTOonateam-by-teambasis?

23%longertofill

Full-timeonsiterolestake23%longertofill

comparablehybridorremotejobs.2

1.2.AuraIntelligenceBaylorUniversity

15

Trend10:DecliningTrust

68%

Ourglobalsocietyisexperiencingaperiodofchange,where

establishedcertaintiesandnorms—suchasgeopoliticalstability,apredictableclimate,andstraightforwardcareerprogression—arerapidlyevolving.Bothleadersandworkersarestrugglingwithlessclarityaroundourcoresystems,data,andbusinessintelligence.

Employertrustisdecliningaroundtheworld,andmostbelievebusinessleaderspurposelymisleadpeople.1

WorkforceImplications

Organizationsandpeopledon’tknowwheretoturntoclearlyassesswhat’shappeningintheworkforceandhowtosensiblyproceed.Whenconfusionandcontradictoryinformationabound,workersmaysufferfromdecisionwhiplash.

LookingAhead

Ascentralizedgovernmentandmainstreammediacontinuetolosecredibility,multinationalconglomeratesandindustrygroupswillhaveanopportunitytobecomethenextmajorsourceoftrusteddataandinsights.Wemustensureoversightofthesegroupssothatthecontenttheyprovideisobjectiveratherthanself-serving.

>>Today’sAction

Doyouevaluateinternaldatafor

alignmentacrosssystems,anddoyoucommunicateconsistentdata-drivenmessagingtoyourstakeholders?

59%

Mostpeopleworldwidebelievefakenewsand

misinformationisamajorproblemintheircountry.2

1.

EdelmanGlobalTrustBarometer

2.

PewResearchCenter

16

Trend11:EquityGaps

>>Today,sAction

Inchallengingtimes,howdoyouhelpyourfrontlineandessentialworkforce?

Accordingtoa2025UNreport,despitesignificantgainsinpovertyreduction,manypeopleteeteronthebrinkevenastheymoveuptheincomeladder.1Whilewealthandprosperityareincreasinglyconcentrated,economicshocks,persistentinflation,andgrowingcareerinstabilityarecreatingahumanexperienceformostofusmarkedbyfear,anger,andgeopoliticalpolarization.

WorkforceImplications

Leadershavearesponsibilitytoleveragepayequityandtransparencystrategiestoensurefaircompensationacrosslevelsandfunctions.Individualcareerpathsmustbedesignedtoprovidefamily-sustainingincomes,andemployersmustbewillingtoprovideholisticwell-beingbenefitsfortheirfull-timeworkforces.

LookingAhead

39%

offrontlineworkers

36%

offrontlineworkers

Nearlyhalfof

frontlineworkers

areunsatisfiedwith

theirincome.2

Morethanone-thirdof

frontlineworkersneeda

secondjobtosupplement

theirincome.2

Projectingthecurrentlayofftrendintothe2030s,wewillseerenewedinterestinand

executionofgovernment-sponsoredprogramsofferingsubsidiesinexchangeforupskilling.Themacroeconomicenvironmentcouldalsosetthestageforincreasedlaborunionactivism.

1.

UnitedNations

2.

ManpowerGroupGlobalTalentBarometer,Jan2026

17

Trend12:PowerSurge

By2028,AIalonewillconsumeasmuchelectricity

annuallyasnearlyone-quarterofallU.S.households.1

22%

TheriseofAI-drivendatacentersisdramaticallyincreasingglobalenergyconsumption,asthesefacilitiesrequirevastamountsofelectricitytosupportpowerfulalgorithmsandnonstopoperations.Thiswillincreasetheneedforscalablegreenenergysolutionsandaskilledworkforcetobuildandmaintainthem.

Mostenergyandutilityemployerssaytheyarestrugglingtofindtheskilledtalenttheyneed.2

WorkforceImplications

76%

AIbudgetsmustaccountnotjustforthetechnologyitself,butfortheelectricityandpeoplethatpowerit.Runawaydemandmayresultinshortagesthatleadtothecollapseof

individualworkflowsandevenentiresystems.Asoutagesbecomearegularoccurrence,leadersneedtocreateliteral“backup”planstocontinuewithbusinessasusual.

>>Today’sAction

AreyoumindfuloftheelectricityrequirementsofAI-basedtechnologies,andhaveyouprotectedyourcoreworkflowsagainstoutages?

LookingAhead

Energyconservationwillbecomeacorehumanskillinthe2030s.Notonlywillthe

demandforutilityworkersincrease,buttheaverageworker’sjobwillinvolveoverseeingAI-basedpartnersandwillalsorequiresmartrationingofelectricity.

1.

U.S.DepartmentofEnergy

2.

ManpowerGroup2025GlobalTalentShortage

18

The

SuccessionCrisis

Four-yeardegreesnolongerguaranteegainful employment,and“bluecollar”jobsaregainingpopularity,butthepathstothemremainstigmatized andelusive.Incorporations,adearthofavailable leaderstooverseeAImeansthatintermediatetoadvancedhumanexpertisewillbeprized.

Trend13:TalentDroughts

Indevelopednations,fertilityrateshavedroppedbelowreplacementlevelsduetolatermarriages,economicinstability,andconcernaboutthedirectionglobalsocietyistaking.Atthesametime,thelaborforceparticipationratecontinuestodecrease,potentiallyreflectingahigherpercentageof

discouragedworkers.

By2030,morethan1in4workersinmanyadvancedeconomieswillbeoverage55.1

>>Today’sAction

Howareyoumaintainingasteadypipelineofyoungworkers?

57%

WorkforceImplications

ofemployers

worldwidesay

workforceagingisimpactingtheir

hiringstrategy.2

Whiletodaysmediacoveragemightpointtoanemployersjobmarket,manyorganizationsarealreadyfacingsignificantlaborshortagesespeciallyinindustrieslikeadvancedmanufacturing.Wecontinuetocreatenewjobsandjobcategories,butfewerworkerswiththerightskillsetsareavailabletofillopenpositions,andrecruitmenthasbecomecommoditizedanddemoralizing.

LookingAhead

Bythe2030s,thelargemillennialgenerationwillbeholdinguptheglobaleconomy.AsmallerGenerationXandGenerationZwillstruggletosupportanagingpopulationamidstreduced

governmentsupport.Organizationswillhopefullyrefocusrecruitmentprocessesonahumanizedcandidateexperience,withstrategicpersonaltouchpointsratherthantotalautomation.

1.

Bain&Company

2.

ManpowerGroupEmploymentOutlookSurvey,Q32025

20

Trend14:DegreeDoubts

Whilethefour-yearcollegedegreeremainsanentrenchedglobalstatussymbol,itsutilityisdecreasing.Unemploymentandunderemploymentamonggraduatesisrisingduetothecombinationofachallengingbusinessenvironmentand

leadership’shopesthatAIcanreplaceentry-levelroles.

WorkforceImplications

Employersneedtodotheirparttoensurenewgrads’

preparednessfortheworkforcethroughearlierengagementwithcollegestudents.Theyalsoneedtobewillingtoinvestinnewgradupskillingandmentorship,andtothinkflexiblyaboutthelevelofpostsecondaryeducationrequiredforagivenrole.

Theemploymentgapbetweendegreeandnon-degreeholdersisthenarrowestin

30years.1

LookingAhead

Anincreasedemphasisonsecondaryschool-initiatedwork-basedlearninginthisdecadeislikelyto

leadtomoreGenZ-erschoosingfull-timepathsintheskilledtradesandingigcareersinthe2030s.Theirpost-secondaryeducationwillbemorefluidandongoing,andtieddirectlytoskillacquisitionandthebusinessobjectivesoftheircurrentorganizations.

>>Today,sAction

Whereareyousourcingyoungtalent,anddoyourrequirementsfortheentry-levelstillmakesenseforthework?

MorethanhalfofGenZworkersworryautomationwillreplacetheirrolesinthenexttwoyears.2

1.

BurningGlassInstitute

2.

ManpowerGroupGlobalTalentBarometer,Jan2026

21

Trend15:BrainDrains

Whiletheprojectedbraindrainofthe2010swasstavedoffbyeconomicrecession,delayedretirements,andmoreflexibleworkforceparticipationamongagingBabyBoomers,westilllackacohesiveinfrastructureforprotectingandtransferringtheknowledgeofexperiencedhumanworkerswithjudgmentandexpertisethatcan

onlybedevelopedthroughdecadesof