杰富瑞-欧洲清洁技术：中东冲突是否会加速能源转型？-EUROPEClean Technology：Will the Middle East Conflict Speed Up the Energy Transition-20260318

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WilltheMiddleEastConflictSpeedUptheEnergyTransition?

Europe’srenewedenergyshockfromtheIranwarechoestheupheavalfirsttriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,onceagainexposingEurope’srelianceonvolatileglobalfossil-fuelmarkets.Asoilandgaspricesrise,policymakersarescramblingtoshieldconsumerswhilereaffirmingrenewablesasastrategicpillarofenergysecurity.Inthisreport,wehighlightstockspositionedtobenefit.

WehighlightbeneficiariesacrossOEMs(Nordex,NKT,Vestas,SMASolar)anddevelopers/utilities(RWE,EDPR,Enel,SSE,Engie,&Elia-see

here

)inthisreport.

Addingtotheenergydependence/securitynarrative-TheIranwarhasreignitedEurope’senergy-securityvulnerabilityviaglobaloil/LNGpricing,liftingriskpremiaandtighteningconditionsforenergy-intensiveindustry.Intheimmediatemarketresponse,Brenthassurged,andEuropeangasbenchmarkshaveswungonfearsofdisruptionthroughtheStraitofHormuz,revivinganinflationnarrativeandraisingtheprobabilityofrenewedpolicyinterventioninpowermarkets.Atthesametime,Europe’slargerwind/solarbaseversus2022iscushioningwholesaleelectricitypricesinmanyhours,evenasgasstillmattersatthemargin.

Keypoliticalandmarket-playerresponsessupporttransition-Politically,thedebatehasshiftedquicklytowardaffordabilityandresilience,withtheEUleadershipdiscussingemergencymeasures(taxcuts,stateaidflexibility,potentialgaspriceinterventions)whilesimultaneouslypromotinglong-termsolutionssuchasPPAs/CfDs,grids,andacceleratedinvestmentin“homegrown”cleanenergy.Memberstatesaresplit,withsomepushingforstrongercrisistoolsandETSrelief,whileothersargueagainstweakeningsanctions/ETSsignals,thelatterwhichwebelieveshouldprevail.Inmarkets,thefirst-ordertradehasfavoredhydrocarbonswhilerate-sensitivecleantechhaslagged,yetinvestorsincreasinglycreditrenewablesandflexibilityforreducinggaspass-through,supportingthemedium-termtransitioncapexcase.

We’veseenthisbefore:Russia’sinvasionofUkraineandwhatchangedsince-SinceFeb-2022,energysecurityhasbecomeaprimarycatalystforEurope’stransition.REPowerEU(May-2022)mobilisedc€300bnandraisedambition(e.g.,≥700GWsolar/425GWofWindby2030),reinforcedbyabroaderregulatorystack:REDIII(Nov-2023)liftingthebindingrenewablestargetto≥42.5%(aspiration45%),plustheGreenDealIndustrialPlan,Net-ZeroIndustryAct,CriticalRawMaterialsAct,IndustrialAcceleratorAct,andnewpermittingrulestoaccelerateapprovals(seetheEUregulatoryagenda

here

.)AreformedEUelectricitymarketdesignenteredintoforceinJuly2024,aimingtoreduceconsumers’exposuretogas-drivenvolatilityandexpandlong-termPPAs/CfDs.Quantitatively,solarinstallationsrose4xfrom16.7GWin'19to65.6GWin'25,whereaswindisupto19.2GWin'25from14.8GWin'19.Renewablesrosefromc30%ofEUpowerin'19tonearly50%in'25,whileRussiangasdependencefellfrom45%to13%.

Howthetransitioncanwork:Spainasaliveexample+howEUpowerispriced-EUwholesalepowerpricesaresetviamarginalpricing(“meritorder”),meaningthelastplantneeded,oftengas,setstheclearingprice.Spainhassuccessfullydecoupled.GashasinfluencedSpain’spowerpriceinonlyc15%ofhourssofarin2026vsc89%inItaly,supportedbyrapidrenewablesbuildout(solar+windc42%of2025generation.)Whatwe’rewatching:(i)EUCouncil/Commissionfollow-throughonpricereliefvstransitiontools(PPAs/CfDs,grids,storage),and(ii)storageacceleration(Spaintargets22.5GWby2030)andpermittingstreamlining.

Figure1-InstalledrenewablecapacityintheEUacceleratedpostRussia'invasionofUkraine(GW)

,,

1,200BioenergyCoalGas

HydroNuclearOtherfossil

1,000OtherrenewablesSolarWind

800

600

400

200

0

2000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Source:GEMIRENAJefferies

Figure2-ShareofelectricitygenerationintheEU(%)

b,ff

FossilHydroWindandsolarNuclearOtherclean

30%29%

23%

12%6%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Source:EmerJeeries

Figure3-Spainbenefittingfrommateriallylowergasexposurethankstorenewablerollout

Italy

89%

Netherlands

42%

Germany

40%

Spain

15%

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Gasinfluenceonelectricitypricein2026(%hours)

Source:Montel,GME,MIBGAS,ENTSO-E,Ember,Jefferies

ConstantinHesse*|EquityAnalyst

44(0)207029

8543|chesse@

AhmedFarman*|EquityAnalyst

44(0)207029

8987|afarman@

LucasFerhani*|EquityAnalyst

44(0)

2075484728|lferhani@

LukeSussams*|Sust.&TransitionStrategist

44(0)

2075484404|lsussams@

ArturoMurua*|EquityAnalyst

+44(0)

2075484344|amurua@

AlejandraBotbol*|EquityAssociate

+44(0)

2075484326|abotbol@

MartinComtesse,CFA^|EquityAnalyst

4969719187107|mcomtesse@

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TableofContents

AnotherConflictLeadingToHeightenedEnergyIndependeceDiscussionsAndTheStocksWeLike

3

Recentpoliticalandmarketparticipants'response5Forcontext:whathappenedsinceRussia'sinvasionofUkraine9HowisEUelectricityproducedandsold?12Spain'sSuccesswithRenewablesandStorage15

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AnotherConflictLeadingToHeightenedEnergy

IndependeceDiscussionsAndTheStocksWeLike

TheescalatingwarinIranhasreignitedEurope’slongstandingvulnerabilitiesaroundenergysecurity,triggeringarapidpoliticalandmarketresponseacrosstheregion.WhileBrentcrudehassurgedandgasbenchmarkshaveswungsharplyonfearsofsupplydisruptionthroughtheStraitofHormuz,EUleadershaveshiftedenergyaffordabilityandresiliencebacktothetopofthepolicyagenda,debatingemergencyinterventionsalongsiderenewedcallstoaccelerateinvestmentinhomegrownrenewables.Atthesametime,marketparticipantsarenavigatingafamiliarinflationaryshock,withhydrocarbonsoutperformingandfinancing-sensitiveclean-energynameslagging,evenasEurope’sexpandedwindandsolarfleethelpscushionpowerpricesmoreeffectivelythanduringthe2022crisis.

Belowwehighlightkeystockthatwebelievearewepositionedtobenefit:

OEMs/ComponentManufacturers

•Nordex(BUY,TP€50,ConstantinHesse)-Thecompanyhasenteredastructurallystrongerphaseinaconsolidatedmarketenvironment.ThenewMTEBITDAmargintargetof10-12%isanover-cyclemargin(mgmtnotexcludingthepossibilitytorunabovethatlevelincertainyears),+150-200bpsaheadofmarketestimates.Orderoutlookremainssolid,despitethelowerauctionvolumesinGermany(asweshowed

here

),withupsidepotentialfromtheUS,whilepricingisresilient.Asaresult,weexpectinstallationstomovetoward9GW+(closerto10GW)from2027vs8.5GWin'25,whileservicecrossesthe€1bnrevenuemark,likelysupportinggroupEBITDAmarginof10%+,oratleast€950mof'27EBITDA.Also,managementsoundedprettyconstructiveonthecall,pointingtoenoughcapacityat€200mannualcapextohandlemarketgrowthestimatedatc10%CAGRthrough2030.Withanadditional€400m+inFCFin'26,theB/Smovestoc€2bn,implyinganEVof€8.5bn,oranEV/EBITDAof8.8x,ac10%withits3yraverage,only2pointsabovethe3yraveragepre-COVIDand3.5pointsabovethehistoricalbottom,despitemuchimprovedfundamentals.(LatestUpdate

here

.)

•Vestas(BUY,TPDKK200,LucasFerhani)-Thegroupisstillonanupcycle,with1)ahigh-marginonshorebusinessinEuropeandtheUS,2)arapidlygrowingEUoffshorewindbusinessthatshouldreachbreakeventhisyearandreachmarginsmoreinlinewithonshoremid-term,and3)animprovingServicebusinessinthelastphaseoftherecoveryplanthisyear.WiththewarinIranandhigherenergyprices,wewouldexpecttoseemorefocusandregulatorysupportforwindinEurope,withsecurityofsupplyandindependencecomingbacktothetable,similartotheCOVIDcrisisandUkrainewar.Withmarginsimprovingtowardthemidtermtargetof10%,thegroupcoulddeliverDDearningsgrowthtradingon9xEV/EBITand14xP/E2027e.Wenotethegroupisinacomfortablenetcashposition,withanincreasedguidanceonpayoutratiothroughamixofdividendsandbuybackthathasalreadystartedandshouldfurtherjuicethereturns.(LatestUpdate

here

.)

•SMASolar(BUY,TP€39,ConstantinHesse)-WeexpectSMAtoenteraperiodofmorestructurallysustainableprofitabilityoverthecomingyears.WhileweremaincautiousonthepaceofrecoveryinHomeandBusinessSolutions(HBS),givenitscontinuedrelianceonregulatoryincentives,weanticipateongoingstrengthinthelarge-scalesegmentinto2026,supportedbyrisingpowerdemandandgrowingstorageintegration.InEurope,weexpectsustainedgrowth,drivenbytheEU’sdecarbonizationagendaandits2030solardeploymenttargetof600GWAC/750GWDC(vs.c400GWbyFY25),alongsiderisingdemandforgridflexibilityandstoragesolutions,whichalreadycompriseroughlyhalfoftheorderintake.ArecentreportbyAuroraestimatestotalinstalledcapacityof80GWby2030,upfrom17GWin'25.IntheUS,recentforecastspointtoadeclineinutility-scalePVinstallationsin2026tothemid-30sGWfromc40GWin'25,droppingfurthertoc30GWbeyond'26.Thatsaid,utility-scalestorage(BESS)isexpectedtocontinuegrowingat+26%,or62GWh/20.2GWin'26,andisanticipatedtoexceedannualinstallationsof110GWh/47GWby2030(includingbehind-the-meter).Inaddition,SMA’sdecisiontoexpandUS-basedmanufacturingfrom2026shouldhelp

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reduceexposuretotariffsandtrade-policyuncertaintywhileimprovingalignmentwithlocalcontentrules.Withthis,combinedwithlowercapexfrom2026onward,weforecastimprovedfreecashflowandanetcashpositionexceeding€200m(ex-leasing),equivalenttoroughly20%ofmarketcap.(LatestUpdate

here

/

here

.)

•NKT(Buy,TPDKK1,008,LucasFerhani)-Thegroupisonthevergeofasignificantgrowthwaveinthe2027-2030periodwiththeadditionalhigh-voltagecapacitycomingonlinefromnextyear,andweseetheTransmissionbusinessdoublingmediumtermwithadditionalvolumesandbetterpricesinthebacklog.NKTisalsobringingnewcapacityinthemedium-voltagesegment,givenelevateddemandtoreplaceandimprovethegrid.ThewarinIranislikelytopushdemandformorehome-grownrenewableenergyinEurope,whichwillboostmedium-voltagedemand.Asrenewablespenetrationincreasesfurther,thiswillinturndrivetransmissiondemandwithoffshorewindandtheneedforinterconnectorstomakethebestuseofenergytowardenergydemandcentresandavoidcurtailments.Weseeover30%EPSCAGRmid-termforNKT,tradingat11xEV/EBITDAand19xP/E2027e,attractivegiventhegrowth.Thegroupisinanetcashposition,andastheramp-upprogresses,capexcomesdown,andFCFinfects,wealsoseeroomformoreshareholderreturnsoropportunisticM&A.(LatestUpdate

here

.)

See

here

forUtils.

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Recentpoliticalandmarketparticipants'response

TheIranwarhasonceagainre-elevatedenergysecurityandaffordabilitytothetopoftheEuropeanpoliticalagenda,butthenear-termpoliticalresponsehasbeenasmuchaboutcushioningconsumer/industrialbillsasitisaboutacceleratingrenewables.EUleadershipmessagingbroadlyframesrenewablesaspartof“strategicautonomy,”yetthemostintensepolicydebateamongmemberstatesiscurrentlyaroundemergencypricemeasures(taxcuts,stateaid,gaspriceinterventions)andeventweakstotheEUcarbonmarket(ETS),which,ifpursued,couldreducepower-pricesignalsthattypicallysupportrenewablecompetitiveness.

Frommarkets’perspective,thefirst-orderreactionhasbeenaclassicrotationintooil&gasonhighercrudeprices,whilepartsofthelistedclean-energycomplexhavelaggedonconcernsthatrenewedenergy-driveninflationcouldkeepfinancingcostshigherforlonger.Atthesametime,power-marketcommentaryincreasinglyhighlightsthatEurope’sexpandedwind/solarfleetisdampeningwholesaleelectricitypricespikesversus2022,strengtheningthestrategiccaseforelectrificationandrenewables,thoughthisdoesnotautomaticallytranslateintonear-termoutperformanceforrenewableOEMs.

Figure4-SharepriceperformancesinceIranconflictbegan

-10%

-6%

-5%

-2%

1%

7%

7%

13%

13%

24%

28%

36%

SiemensEnergy SaipemSubsea7

VestasWindSystemsNordex

SMASolarTotalEnergiesBP

Shell

EquinorVerbio

Neste

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%

PerformancesinceFeb.27marketclose

Source:FactSet,Jefferies

PoliticalresponseinEurope:security-of-supply+billreliefnow,renewablesframinginparallel

Intherun-uptotheMarchEuropeanCouncil,CommissionPresidentUrsulavonderLeyencirculatedoptionsaimedatloweringpowercosts(promotingPPAsandCfDsforlow-carbongeneration,possiblegas-generationpricecaps/subsidies,limitingtheelectricityimpactofcarboncosts,andgrid-utilizationmeasures).Thisframingexplicitlylinkscompetitivenessand“independence”toenergyaffordabilitywhileacknowledgingthatsupplyis“assured”butfossilpricesareweighingontheeconomy.

Separately,theEuropeanCommissionpresentedapackageexplicitlyarguingthatthegeopoliticalcontextunderscoresrisksfromimportedfossilfuelsandpositioninginvestmentin“homegrown”cleanenergyasamid-termaffordabilitysolution,pairedwithconsumer-billmeasures(tax/levyreduction,supplierswitching,transparency)andaclean-energyinvestmentstrategysupportedbysubstantialEIBfinancingintentions(see

here

).

Whatmemberstatesarepressingfor(andtheinternalEUfrictionpoints)

Anumberofcountries(reportedprominently:Italy,Austria,Slovenia,Slovakia)havepubliclypressedBrusselsforamore“concrete”crisisresponse,includingrevisitingthepost-Ukraineemergencytoolbox(state-aidrelaxations,coordinateddemandreduction,potentialgaspricecaps).ItalyhasbeenamongthemostvocalonETS-relatedrelief,whiletheCommission’sclean-transitionleadershiphaspushedbackagainstsuspendingtheETS.Germanyhasalsobeenreportedcallingforacceleratingareviewofemissionstrading.

Asweseeit,thisisadouble-edgedsignal.Politicalurgencyaround“independence”cansupportfasterpermitting,grids,storage,andPPAs,butshort-termaffordabilitypoliticscanalsodriveinterventions(tax

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cuts,ETStweaks,gaspricecaps)thatdistortpricesignalsandmayredirectfiscalcapacityawayfromrenewablesupportschemes.

Parliament-levelnarrative:“GreenDeal=strategicautonomy”

IntheEuropeanParliament,theconflicthasbeenusedtoreinforcethe“security/autonomy”casefortheGreenDeal.ThenewlyelectedEnvironmentCommitteechair,PierfrancescoMaran,arguedthatsoaringfossilpricesunderlinerenewablesandefficiencyasastrategyofEuropeanautonomyand“freedom.”

OtherKeyPoliticalDiscussionPoints&Proponents

UnitedNations:SimonStiell,ExecutiveSecretaryoftheUNFrameworkConventiononClimate

Change(UNFCCC),hasbeenhighlyvocal,describingtheIranwarasan"abjectlesson"inthe

dangersoffossilfuels.HewarnedEUpolicymakersthatfossilfueldependencyis"rippingaway

nationalsecurityandsovereignty"andlabeledanycallstoslowtheshifttorenewableenergyas

"completelydelusional."

EuropeanCommission:ExecutiveVice-PresidentTeresaRiberahaspushedbackagainst

proponentsofdomesticoilandgas,statingthatthe"answerisnotnewdependencies,butfaster

electrification,renewablesandefficiency."SheemphasizedthatthecleantransitionisEurope's

"shieldagainstvolatility."Furthermore,EuropeanCommissionPresidentUrsulavonderLeyenhighlightedtheimmediatefinancialtoll,notingthattheIranwarhadalreadycostEuropeancitizensanadditional€3billioninfossilfuelimports,callingit"thepriceofourdependency."

UnitedKingdom:Inadirectpolicyresponsetothecrisis,UKEnergyMinisterEdMilibandannouncedthatthegovernmentisbringingforwarditsnextrenewableenergyauctiontoJuly,declaringthatthereis"notamomenttowaste"andthatrelianceonfossilfuelsisincompatiblewithenergysecurity.PrimeMinisterKeirStarmerechoedthis,statingthattheUK'splanistobuild"cleanBritishenergylikeneverbefore"todecreasedependenceonvolatileinternationalmarkets.

Spain:TheSpanishgovernmentviewsdomesticrenewablegenerationasitsprimarydefensestrategy.ForeignMinisterJoséManuelAlbaresnotedthatintoday'sclimate,"talkingaboutdefensemeanstalkingaboutenergy."Spain'sMinisterofEcologicalTransition,SaraAagesen,announcedthatMadridisfinalizinga"comprehensiveresponseplan"featuringbothshort-termreliefandstructurallong-termenergytransitionmeasures.

HungaryandBelgiumDemandRelief:HungarianForeignMinisterPéterSzijjártócomplainedthatthecombinationoftheIranwarandthebanonRussianoilhascreateda"doublewhammy"forEurope,leavingitwiththetightestenergymarketintheworldanddemandingthatBrusselsliftRussiansanctionstoprotecttheeconomy.Surprisingly,Belgium'sPrimeMinisterBartDeWeverechoedthissentiment,suggestingthatEuropeneedstoapply"commonsense"andnormalizerelationswithRussiatoregainaccesstocheapenergy,claimingthatmanyEuropeanleadersagreeprivatelybutareafraidtosayitoutloud.

GermanyHoldstheLine:GermanChancellorFriedrichMerzhasfiercelypushedbackagainstthesecalls.Hestatedpubliclythatitwouldbea"mistake"toeasesanctionsonRussiaforanyreason,arguingthatlettingPutinexploittheIranwartoweakenUkrainesendsthewronggeopoliticalsignal.MerzalsonotedthateasingRussiansanctionswouldnotdefinitivelyleadtoloweroilprices.

Market-participantresponse:commoditiesfirst,theninflation/financing,withpower-marketresilienceemerging

TheInternationalEnergyAgencydescribedtheconflictascreatingthelargestsupplydisruption

inthehistoryoftheglobaloilmarket,notingflowsthroughHormuzcollapsingandIEAmembers

agreeingtoarecord400millionbarrelemergencystockrelease.Thisframinghasanchoredmarket

expectationsaroundelevatedenergy-pricevolatility.InEuropecoveragelikewisefocusedonthe

riskofanenergy-driveninflationimpulse(thoughwithdebateaboutwhetheritreaches2022-

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stylemagnitude),highlightingthesensitivityofEuropeangasbenchmarksandtheroleofstrategicreleasesincalmingoil.

RenewablescushioningEUPowerPrices

Weseeanotableshiftinmarketnarrativevs2022,withEurope’sexpandedrenewablefleettranslatingtowholesaleelectricitypricesbeingmoreoftensetbycheaperwind/solar,reducingthepass-throughfromgasspikes,dampeningpricespikes,andmakingthepowersystemmoreresilientwhilestillleavingeveningscarcity“spikes”asakeyresidualrisk.

Othermarketparticipants'commentary

TenneTemphasizedthatthegeopoliticaltensionscausedbyconflictsintheMiddleEastshowcase

thesevererisksoffossil-fueldependence.Managementstatedthatinvestinginrenewablesources,

electricityinfrastructure,andarobustcross-bordernetworkisabsolutely"essentialforEuropean

energyindependence."

Statkraft:Whilebullishonthelong-termoutlook,Statkraft'smanagementacknowledgedthe

friction,notingthathighgeopoliticaltensionshaveaddeduncertaintytothepaceoftheenergy

transition,particularlyforlessmaturetechnologiesreliantonsubsidies.However,theyreaffirmed

that"energysecurityhasbecomeanimportantdriveroftheenergytransitionascountriesseek

localsourcesofpower."

Keydiscussionpointstotrack

Emergencyaffordabilitymeasuresvs.pro-transitionmarketdesign

•Gaspriceinterventions/decouplingindustrialpowerbillsfromvolatility:floatedatEUlevelbyvonderLeyen(gas-generationpricecaps/subsidies;broadenPPAs/CfDstolowcarbon).

•Cuttingenergytaxes/leviesasimmediatebillrelief:highlightedinCommission/pressreportingandurgedasalevertolowerbillsquickly.

•Renewables-supportingcontracting(PPAs/CfDs):positionedbytheCommissionasawaytostabilizepricesandexpandlow-carbongeneration.

Asweseeit:supportiveforutilities/IPPswithcontractedrenewablespipelines;neutraltonegativeformerchantexposureifinterventionscapupside;watchforimplementationdetailsbycountry.

ETS/carbon-price“relief”debate

•Member-statepressuretochange/suspendETS:reportedespeciallyfromItalyandothers;broadercallstodeployemergencypowers.

•CommissionresistancetoscrappingETS:reportedpushbackfromtheEUclean-transitionleadershipagainstsuspendingETS,evenasleadersdiscusslimitingelectricity-priceimpactwhilepreservingETS’srole.

•PotentialtechnicalETSadjustments(e.g.,MarketStabilityReservediscussion):referencedaspartoftheEU’smenuofoptionstocurbpowercosts.

Asweseeit:anyperceiveddilutionofETScouldcompresslong-termpower-priceassumptionsandweakencarbon-drivenswitchingeconomics;however,itcouldalsoeasenear-termpoliticalbacklashandprotectdemandforelectrification.

“Energyindependence”narrative:renewablesassecuritypolicy

•GreenDealasstrategicautonomy:voicedprominentlybyPierfrancescoMaran(EPENVIchair)linkingrenewables/efficiencytoautonomypost-Iranshock.

•Commission’s“homegrowncleanenergy”push:presentedasamid-termaffordabilityandresiliencesolutionviainvestmentmobilizationandcitizen-energymeasures.

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Asweseeit:higherprobabilityofincrementalmeasuresonpermitting,grids,storage,andinvestmentderisking,butpoliticalbandwidthissharedwith“billshock”firefighting.

Power-marketresilience:renewablesdampvolatility

•Renewablescushioningeffectinwholesalepowerpricing(vs2022)isbeingexplicitlycitedinmarketcommentary,withseasonalsolarupliftandstrongerFrenchnuclearavailabilityaddingresilience,but“eveningpeak”pricingstillpronetospikes.

Asweseeit:supportsmedium-termstructuralcaseforrenewables+flexibility(storage,demandresponse,peakers),butnear-termequityperformancecouldremaindominatedbyratesandinput-costperceptions.

Macro/financingchannel:inflationriskandratespath

•Energy-driveninflationconcernispresentinmarketcommentary,withattentiononhowsustaineddisruptioncouldaffectcentralbankeasingtrajectories;notealsocorporatecommentaryaboutdiversifiedgassourcingandreducedRussiandependence.

Asweseeit:higher-for-longerratesaretypicallyaheadwindforcapital-intensiverenewablesandOEMs,lesssoforcontractedcashflows(utilities/IPPs)dependingoninflationindexationandregulatoryframeworks.

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Forcontext:whathappenedsinceRussia'sinvasionofUkraine

Russia丿sfull-scaleinvasionofUkrainetriggeredtheEU丿smostconsequentialenergy-policypivotindecades:securityofsupplybecamepoliticallyfusedwithdecarbonisation丿andthe