花旗-全球主题投资框架：2026年投资主题重新评估-Global Theme Machine：Reassessment of Themes for 2026-20260324

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24Mar202616:00:50ET│49pages

GlobalThemeMachine

ReassessmentofThemesfor2026

CITI'STAKE

Citi’sGlobalThemeMachineentersits14thyearin2026,followingourannualrefreshofinvestmentthemes,stockmappings,andexposureclassifications.Thelatestiterationspans83investmentthemescreatingacomprehensivedatasetofmorethan20,000stockthemelinkages.Thisdepthandcontinuityprovidearobustfoundationforthematicanalysisandportfolioconstruction.Wewouldbepleasedtodiscussthefulldatasetanditsapplicationsinmoredetailuponrequest.

NewThemes—For2026,weintroducetwonewthemestoourthematicsuite,reflectingtheGlobalThemeMachine’sabilitytoidentifyandmapemerginginvestmentopportunitiesinatimelyandsystematicmanner.ThemeselectionisinformedbyextensivedialoguewithinvestorsandcollaborationwithCitiResearchteamsglobally.Thisyear,wetakeamorenuancedviewofartificialintelligencebyintroducingPhysicalAI,whichfocusesonAI-enabledsystemsinteractingwiththephysicalworld,andAI&PowerGeneration,whichcapturesthecriticallinkbetweenAI’srapidgrowthandtheenergyinfrastructurerequiredtosupportit.

ThemePerformanceinVolatileMarkets—Overthepastdecade,along/shortstrategybasedondynamicthemeattractivenesshasremainedresilientthroughmultiplemarketstressperiods,consistentlydifferentiatingwinnersfromlaggards.AttractivethemeshavehistoricallyoutperformedUnattractivethemesbymorethan6%,reinforcingtheallocativestrengthoftheframework.

What’sontheThemeRadar?—FintechandMobilePaymentsrankasrelativelyattractivebasedonourfactorframework,whileBiotech,SportsTechandSpaceRacewerethestrongest-performingthemesoverthepast12months.ThelargestrecentimprovementsinoverallfactorrankingswereobservedinAI&PowerGenerationandLuxurySpend,withanotableimprovementalsoobservedinPhysicalAI.

Europe

DavidTChewAC

+44-20-7986-7698

david.chew@

PatrickPflughaupt,Ph.D.

+44-20-7508-6264

patrick.pflughaupt@

US

AnjuBhandari

+1-212-816-3812

anju.bhandari@

RichardWSchlatter

+1-212-816-0591

richard.w.schlatter@

Asia-Pacific

KamleshLahoti

+91-22-4277-5019

kamlesh.lahoti@

YueHinPong

+44-20-7986-3953

yue.hin.pong@

KuldeepMTilara

+912242775039

kuldeep.tilara@

SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations.

NotfordistributioninthePeople'sRepublicofChina,excludingtheHongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegionandQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestors.

2

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

ThemeInvesting

Launchedin2013,Citi’sGlobalThemeMachineisaresearch-drivenanalytical

frameworkthatcombinesglobalfundamentalequityresearchwithadisciplined

quantitativemethodology.Theplatformevaluatestherelativeattractivenessof

investmentthemesacrossarangeoffinancialandquantitativemetrics,providingastructuredandscalableapproachtothematicinvesting.Ongoingengagementwithinstitutionalinvestorsindicatesthatfewcomparablesolutionsintegrate

bottom-upanalystinsightwithsystematicquantitativeanalysistoasimilar

degree.

TheGlobalThemeMachinewasdevelopedinresponsetoincreasinginvestor

demandforthematicinvestmentstrategies,reflectingheightened

interconnectednessacrosscompanies,economies,andfinancialmarkets.The

objectivewastointroducegreaterconsistency,transparency,andanalyticalrigor

intotheme-basedinvestmentanalysis.

Asaninitialstep,Citi’sequityanalysts—coveringmorethan3,500stocks,

alongsideselectednon-coverednames—mappedcompaniestoover80

investmentthemes.InFebruary2014,theframeworkwasenhancedthroughthe

introductionofanalyst-assessedrevenueexposure,wherebycompanieswere

evaluatednotonlyforthematicrelevancebutalsofortheproportionofrevenues

attributabletoeachtheme.Thismateriallyimprovedtheprecisionandinvestabilityofthethematicclassifications.

In2015,theplatformwasfurtherrefinedthroughtheintroductionofnewand

emergingthemes,theconsolidationofoverlappingthemes,andtheexpansionof

stockcoverage.Wherefeasible,coveragewasextendedtoincludeconstituentsof

theMSCIAllCountryWorldIndexbeyondCiti’scoreanalystuniverse,broadening

therepresentativenessandglobalapplicabilityoftheframework.

EvolutionoftheGlobalThemeMachine

Overthepastdecade,theGlobalThemeMachinehasevolvedthroughastructuredgovernanceprocesstoremainalignedwithlong-termstructuraltrends.Themes

areperiodicallyadded,merged,orretiredtoreflectchangesintheinvestment

opportunitysetandtomaintainconceptualclarityacrossthethematicuniverse.

Figure1illustratestheevolutionofthethemesetovertime,highlightingtheme

introductionsatsuccessiverebalancepoints.Thehistoricalprogressionofthemesreflectsshiftinginvestorfocus,particularlythegrowingimportanceof

technology-enabledtransformationacrosssectors.Increasedrepresentationof

themesrelatedtofinancialtechnology,artificialintelligence,humancapital,

sports,andeducationtechnologyhighlightstheexpandingroleofinnovation

acrosstheglobaleconomy.

Collectively,thisevolutionunderscoresCiti’scommitmenttomaintaininga

forward-looking,institutionallyrobustthematicframework,supportedby

fundamentalresearch,quantitativediscipline,andclearlydefinedgovernance

standards.

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

Figure1.ThemeMachineEvolutionsince2013

3

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

ThematicPortfolioMethodology

4

IntegratedUseofCitiResearchResources

TheconstructionofCiti’sthematicportfoliosisbasedonthesystematic

integrationofCitiResearch’sglobalanalyticalcapabilities.Investmentthemesareidentifiedthroughcollaborationamongtheequityquantitative,strategy,and

productmanagementteams.Followingthemeidentification,Citi’sglobalanalystnetworkissurveyedtodeterminewhichstockswithintheircoverageuniverse

provideexposuretotherelevantinvestmentthemes.

Tostrengthenanalyticalrigorandenhancedifferentiation,analystsassessand

classifyeachcompany’sthematicexposureashigh,medium,orlow,basedontheproportionofrevenuesattributabletothetheme.Asastandardizedguide,

companiesareclassifiedashighexposurewhenmorethan50%ofrevenuesare

linkedtothetheme;mediumexposurewhen10–50%ofrevenuesareattributable;andlowexposurewhenlessthan10%ofrevenuesareexposed.Thisstructured,

revenue-basedexposureframeworkrepresentsakeymethodological

enhancementanddistinguishesCiti’sapproachfromcomparablethematicproductsinthemarket.

Portfoliosareconstructedusingcascadingweightsalignedwithexposure

intensity.Portfolioperformanceisevaluatedonanongoingbasis,andstock-levelfinancialmetricsareaggregatedtogenerateportfolio-levelindicators,providingacomprehensiveassessmentofrelativevaluationandfundamentalattractivenessacrossthemes.

AnnualThemeandPortfolioGovernance

Allthemesandportfoliosaresubjecttoaformalannualreview.Thisprocess

evaluatesthecontinuedrelevanceofexistingthemesandconsidersthe

introductionofnewthemeswhereappropriate.Themeremovalsareuncommon,reflectingtheobjectiveofidentifyinglong-term,structuralinvestment

opportunitieswithmulti-yearhorizons.

Aspartoftheannualgovernanceprocess,analystsarere-surveyedtoconfirmthatportfolioconstituentscontinuetoprovidemeaningfulexposuretotheunderlyingtheme.Stocksmayberemovedwherecompaniesdivestrelevantbusinesslines,

undergocorporaterestructuring,ornolongeralignwiththethematicdefinition.Conversely,newconstituentsmaybeaddedfollowingacquisitions,initialpublicofferings,orstrategicdevelopmentsthatincreasethematicrelevance.Stocksthataredelistedareremovedautomaticallyatthetimeofdelisting.

PortfolioConstructionandOngoingMaintenance

Thematicportfoliosareconstructedannually,withconstituentweightsdeterminedbyassessedthematicexposure.Portfoliosarerebalancedmonthlytomaintain

proportionalexposureacrossconstituents.Whenastockisremoved,theweightsofremainingconstituentsareadjustedonapro-ratabasistopreserveportfolio

structureandthematicintegrity.

UpdatedportfolioconstituentsandthemerankingsarepublishedmonthlyonCitiVelocity,ensuringtransparencyandconsistentaccesstocurrentportfolio

information.

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

Figure2.ThemesPortfolioMethodology

5

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

EvaluatingThemeAttractiveness

ThebasisforourstyleclassificationandchoiceofstyledescriptorscomesfromtheCitiEquityStyleFrameworkthatwasdevelopedin2006andformsthebedrockofmuchofourequitystyleanalysisTheoverallstockuniverseisbasedontheMSCIACWorldindexbutcanbeextendedtomoststockuniversesorindicesaroundtheworld.

Aggregatestyle‘scores’foreachthemeareconstructedfromthebottomupusingconstituentstockdataand/orfundamentalmetrics.Foreverystockacomposite

stylefactoriscreatedbasedonanequalweightingofeachstyledescriptor.Abroadrangeofdescriptorsareusedtoprovideanunbiasedrepresentationofthestyleweareaimingtomimic.Forexample,forValueweusearangeofcyclicalanddefensivevaluationfactors.ForLowRisk,welookatnumberoffacetsofcompanyriskthat

aren’tjustrestrictedtopricerisk:wealsoconsiderbalancesheetandearningsriskfactors.Intermsofinterpretationofstyleranks,allshouldbeconsideredas“high”(e.g.HighPriceMomentum,highrank),exceptValuationandRiskwhereLowRiskandLowValuationscorehighest.

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

Figure3.InvestmentStylesandDescriptors(EquallyWeighted)

6

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

WhathasChangedfor2026

Inthe2026updateoftheGlobalThemeMachine2newthemesareadded,9

existingthemesarediscontinued,andwehavefurtherrefinedthedefinitionof20

7

existingthemes.Thenewthemesareasfollows:

Figure4.NewThemesfor2026andDefinitions

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

ThedeprecatedthemesincludeE-Commerce,EMConsumer,NetZero,PropTech,Internet-DrivenBusinessModels,RemoteWorking,EMinDM,Recurring

Revenue/LowRiskofDisruption,andInfrastructure.

TheupdatedthemedescriptionsareavailableintheAppendix.

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

Themesfor2026atGlance

Thefollowingtablesshowthemecoveragefor2026.FulldefinitionsforthemescanbefoundintheAppendix.

8

Figure5.AllThemesOverview

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

Figure6.AllThemeOverview(continued)

9

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

CoverageStatistics

10

NumberofStocksMapped

Aspartofthemostrecentannualrebalance,theGlobalThemeMachinemapsinvestmentthemesto3,524companies.

Figure7

illustratestheevolutionofthemappedstockuniverseoverthepastdecadeofannualsurveys,highlightingthesteadygrowthandincreasingdepthoftheplatform.

Aspartofthereassessmentofthethemeexposures,thenumberofmediumandhigh-exposureclassificationshavebeenreduced(

Figure8

),andlow-exposuremappingsarelargelyunchanged.

LowMediumHigh

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

(16607)(20803)(25051)(24566)(26368)(29602)(31568)(31804)(29900)(29189)(20644)

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

Figure7.StocksIncludedinThemeMachineFigure8.High/Medium/LowTotalConstituentsCount

0

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

(3333)(3751)(4334)(4674)(4796)(5474)(5237)(5942)(5193)(5192)(3524)

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

CitiCoveredNon-covered

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

MarketCapDistribution

The

Figure10

showsthetotalmarketvalueofcompaniesmappedtotheThemessurveyasashareofregionalS&PBMIindices.Mostofthelargecapcompaniesfromlastyear’sthemesarestillcovered,butwehavereducedsmallercap

companies(

Figure9

).

Figure9.CountofCompaniesbyMarketCapitalisation

10BN-50BN3BN-5BN<500M

300

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

330

1197

907

769

1948

670

2023

388

1161

841

657

1576

569

2025

341

1145

850

692

1615

540

2024

350

1215

880

737

1672

377

2022

289

1108

784

550

1281

316

2018

354422569

201920202021

383

967

617

448

841

162

2026

203

872

672

523

1152

311

2017

185

768

584

431

1045

291

2016

>50BN

5BN-10BN500M-3BN

228

1006

790

675

1598

247

998

788

669

1648

1126

857

749

1873

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

Figure10.MarketCapRepresentationofMappedCompaniesRelativetotheRegionalMarkets

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

NorthAmericaLATAMEMEAPACIFICASIA

120%

100%

2020

2026

2019

2025

2017

2023

2018

2024

2016

2022

2021

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

ThemePerformance

11

Overthelongterm,theThemeMachinehasdemonstratedstrongandpersistent

valuecreation.FromJune2013throughFebruary2026,theAttractive(topquintile)themesdeliveredanannualizedreturnof13.3%,materiallyaheadofthe

Unattractive(bottomquintile)themes,whichreturned6.8%,resultinginatop–bottomperformancespreadofover6%.Overthesameperiod,MSCIWorld

generatedanannualizedreturnofabout11.7%.

However,despitestrongperformancefromthetopquintile(34.7%)overthepast12monthscomparedtoMSCIWorldgenerating21.8%,thetop-bottomspreadgot

draggedduetothebottomquintiledelivering47.3%.

Figure11.QuintileThemesPerformanceSinceInception

2013201520172019202120232025

520

470

420

370

320

270

220

170

120

70

BottomThemesTopThemes

Middle

Long/Short

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

Figure12.PerformanceStatistics(fromJun2013toFeb2026)

TopQuintileThemes

MSCIWorld

AnnualisedReturn

AnnualisedVolatility

13.3%

14.9%

6.8%

18.4%

11.7%

14.0%

SharpeRatio

0.89

0.37

0.84

Beta1.001.16

AnnualisedActiveReturnAnnualisedTrackingError

1.2%

5.2%

-4.2%

9.0%

InformationRatio

0.23

-0.47

HitRate

54%*

55%**

*percentageoftimewhentopquintileoutperformsbenchmark

**percentageoftimewhenbottomquintileunderperformsbenchmark

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

Top/Bottom5Themes:Performance

ThetablessummarizeUSDtotalreturnsforthemesacrossmultiplehorizons;givenrecentmarketvolatility,resultsarecontextualizedagainstthepast12months.ThestrongestmonthlygainswereinGreeningtheHomeandBiodiversity,representing1.85and2.23standard-deviationmoves,respectively.

Figure13.TotalReturnsinUSDOver3m,6m,12mandYTDWindows–SortedbyLastMonthReturn

LastMonth

PortfolioTheme

Return

MSCIWorld

0.76%

3.90%

3.03%

21.83%

77.68%

-0.37

GreeningtheHome

IndustrialTrends/Environment

10.33%

16.25%

17.24%

34.55%

23.91%

1.85

Biodiversity

Environment

9.05%

16.03%

12.09%

41.70%

49.18%

2.23

ManufacturingOnshoring

IndustrialTrends

8.62%

20.00%

15.71%

37.44%

78.60%

1.57

SustainableMaterials

Environment

8.26%

18.60%

15.33%

42.02%

41.56%

1.89

AdditiveManufacturing

IndustrialTrends

8.23%

18.53%

14.62%

44.79%

75.38%

1.66

***

ContactlessEconomy

InformationTechnology

-3.76%

3.11%

0.47%

20.00%

64.42%

-1.29

ITServices

InformationTechnology

-4.39%

-0.55%

-1.36%

13.33%

49.42%

-1.88

DigitalLeisure

InformationTechnology

-4.55%

-0.88%

-0.67%

19.01%

53.62%

-1.26

HRTech

InformationTechnology

-5.83%

-6.50%

-8.39%

-1.65%

8.54%

-1.58

SoftwareasaService

InformationTechnology

-8.08%

-12.23%

-12.47%

-10.14%

19.28%

-1.81

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.

Note:TheLastMonthReturnsarecurrentlypreliminary.AsmallnumberofAnalystupdatesarepending,whichmayleadtominorrevisions.

Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

Thistableranksthemesby12-monthUSDtotalreturns.BiotechandSportsTech

12

showanotablecomebackovertheperiod,whileSoftwareasaServicesitsatthebottomoftherankingsastheweakest12-monthperformer.

Figure14.TotalReturnsinUSDOver3M,6M,12MandYTDWindows–Sortedby12M

LastMonth

PortfolioTheme

Return

MSCIWorld

0.76%

3.90%

3.03%

21.83%

77.68%

-0.37

Biotech

Healthcare

4.19%

7.54%

7.29%

104.77%

182.13%

-0.54

SportsTech

InformationTechnology

3.13%

33.70%

22.92%

103.81%

78.77%

-0.42

SpaceRace

Miscellaneous

6.13%

42.25%

30.07%

100.16%

139.24%

-0.01

DigitalCurrency

Financial

-0.50%

20.40%

14.85%

92.76%

195.57%

-1.03

QuantumComputing

InformationTechnology

4.12%

32.77%

24.50%

92.51%

82.00%

-0.26

***

HealthcareIT

Healthcare

-3.76%

-3.40%

-1.81%

10.13%

26.78%

-1.30

SocialVices

Consumption

3.55%

3.89%

5.15%

6.89%

6.32%

1.16

HRTech

InformationTechnology

-5.83%

-6.50%

-8.39%

-1.65%

8.54%

-1.58

CreatorEconomy

InformationTechnology

-3.59%

-12.14%

-11.31%

-7.23%

19.56%

-0.57

SoftwareasaService

InformationTechnology

-8.08%

-12.23%

-12.47%

-10.14%

19.28%

-1.81

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.

Note:TheLastMonthReturnsarecurrentlypreliminary.AsmallnumberofAnalystupdatesarepending,whichmayleadtominorrevisions.

Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

GlobalThemeMachine

24March2026CitiResearch

Thesechartsshowvisualperspectiveoftheabovetables

13

Figure15.Top10/Bottom10ThemePerformance:LastMonth

GreeningtheHome

Biodiversity

ManufacturingOnshoring

SustainableMaterials

AdditiveManufacturing

CircularEconomy

WindEnergy

FossilFuels

FuelCells

Hydrogen

MSCIWorld

AI&PowerGeneration

InteractiveEntertainment

ArtificialIntelligenceAdopters

CreatorEconomy

HealthcareIT

ContactlessEconomy

ITServices

DigitalLeisure

HRTech

SoftwareasaService

-9%-6%-3%0%3%6%9%12%

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

Figure17.Top10/Bottom10ThemePerformance:Last12M

Biotech

SportsTech

SpaceRace

DigitalCurrency

QuantumComputing

ScarceResources

Defence

EnergyEfficiency

CleanTech

ElectricVehicles

MSCIWorld

ArtificialIntelligenceAdopters

ExperientialCommerce

MedicalTech

ITServices

ValueHealthcareSpend

HealthcareIT

SocialVices

HRTech

CreatorEconomy

SoftwareasaService

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

Figure16.Top10/Bottom10ThemePerformance:Last3Months

SpaceRace

SportsTech

QuantumComputing

Defence

ScarceResources

DigitalCurrency

ManufacturingOnshoring

NuclearEnergy

CircularEconomy

WindEnergy

MSCIWorld

FinTech

ValueHealthcareSpend

ITServices

Generics&Biosimilars

DigitalLeisure

ArtificialIntelligenceAdopters

HealthcareIT

HRTech

CreatorEconomy

SoftwareasaService

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

Figure18.Top10/Bottom10ThemePerformance:Last3Years

DigitalCurrency

Biotech

Defence

SpaceRace

AI&PowerGeneration

NuclearEnergy

PhysicalAI

ScarceResources

MobilePayments

DataStorage(BigData)

MSCIWorld

FightingObesity

GreeningtheHome

MedicalTech

CreatorEconomy

SoftwareasaService

FeminineHealth&FemTech

BeautifulPeople

ValueHealthcareSpend

HRTech

SocialVices

0%50%100%150%200%250%

©2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup’swrittenpermission.Source:CitiResearch,MSCI

EvaluatingThemeAttractiveness–WhatShouldyouBuyorSell?

Themescanbeviewedasinvestableassetsintheirownright,wherethepricepaidshouldreflectbothcurrentandprospectivefundamentals,aswellasotherrelevantfactors.Tosupportthisassessment,werankthematicportfoliosacross

establishedinvestmentstylesandacompositeofallstyles,asdiscussedearlierinthisreport.ThesestylesincludeValuation,Growth,Quality/Risk,