汇丰-中国房地产：从“离场”到“升级”：为何二手房流动性至关重要-China Real Estate From'exit'to'upgrade：why resale liquidity matters-20260324

HSBCGicbanvestmentResearch24March2026

Equities

REMD

ChinaRealEstate

From‘exit’to‘upgrade’:whyresaleliquiditymatters

China

uFivereasonswhythesurgeinsecondaryvolumematters

uOwnersnolongerdesperatetoexit,andbuyersareentering

uKeypicks:CRL,C&DandSeazen,allBuy-rated

Thesurgeinsecondarysalesvolumeinkeycitieshascontinuedtomakeheadline

news.Inthisnote,weelaborateonwhyaliquidsecondarymarketmatters,restartingthetransactionchainthatultimatelysupportsprimarysell-through,anddevelopers’

cashconversion.Wemaintainourconstructiveviewonthesector.

1.Secondaryliquidityisshiftingfrom‘exitchannel’to‘upgradeenabler’.

Inpriordown-cycles,secondarytransactionswereofteninterpretedas

householdsrushingtode-risk.Thistime,improvedliquidityisincreasinglybeingviewedasamechanismtosupportgenuinefirst-timedemand(helpedbymoreaffordablesecondarypricing)andupgraderdemand(conditionalonsuccessfuldisposalofanexistinghome).Thedeclineinsecondarylistingsinkeycities(asmuchasc25%inthecaseofXiamensinceDec-25)reinforcesthispoint:sellersappearlessdesperatetoexit,andbuyersaremorewillingtotransact.

2.Unlockingthehouseholdbalancesheet.Unlikefinancialassets,housing

wealthisonlyrealisableuponsale.Hence,afunctioningresalemarketmatters

forconfidenceandconsumption:ifhouseholdscanmonetiseorrecyclehousingequity,theycanredeploycapitalintoabetterhomeand/orintogoodsand

services.Ourviewisthathouseholdwealth(RMB309trnhousingandRMB167trndeposits)willstabilisein2026,reducingriskthatspendingpowerremains“stuck”inilliquidproperty

(Housingwealthreset

,16Mar2026).

3.Primaryrecoveryneedssecondarychurn–otherwisebuyersaretrapped.

Aliquidresalemarketfacilitatesprimarymarketchurnandcandirectlybenefit

developerssellingnewhomes.Iftheresalemarketisfrozen,potentialnew-homebuyersareeffectivelylockedinplace:eveniftheywanttoupgrade(orneedto

duetofamilyformation),theycan’ttransactiftheycan’tselltheirexistingunit.

4.Pricediscoveryisapre-conditionforconfidence.Afunctionalsecondary

marketbringsmoreparticipantsintothemarket,reinforcingthestabilityofnewlydiscoveredtransactionprices.Thismattersbecauseconfidenceisnotrestoredbypolicyheadlinesalone;it’srestoredwhenhomebuyers/sellerscanseetheirmostimportantfinancialdecisionisfeasibleagainattransparentclearingprices.

5.Fromspeculativeassettoconsumptiongoods.Finally,improvedsecondaryliquidityhelpshousingbehavemorelikeaconsumptiongoodratherthana

speculativeasset,dampeningboom-bustcycles.Whentransactionsarefrequentandpricesareanchoredtofundamentals,expectationsbecomelessreflexive–creatingahealthierset-upforasustainedrecovery.

MichelleKwok*

HeadofAsiaRealEstateandHKEquityResearch

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

michellekwok@.hk

+85229966918

OliverYu*

Analyst,AsiaRealEstate

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

oliver.y.o.x.yu@.hk

+85222882050

StephenWang*,CFA

Analyst,AsiaRealEstate

TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

stephen.wang@.hk

+85222841675

CharlotteYe*

Associate

Guangzhou

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

HSBCGlobalInvestmentSummit

14to16April2026

Findoutmore

Disclosures&Disclaimer

ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited

ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:

Equities●REMD

https://www

HSBC

24March2026

2

Secondarymarket–fromexitchanneltoupgradeenabler

Volumeup,pricestabilising

Shanghaihasattractednewsheadlinesoveritsheatedsecondarymarket,withweekly

transactionvolumeduring16-22Marchhittinganewhighsince2021.However,itisnotjustShanghaithatisexperiencingastrongrecovery–othermajorcitiesarealsoshowing

momentuminMarch(Figure2).

Therehavebeenbroaderdeclinesinsecondaryhomelistingsyear-to-date(Figure3),whichalleviatesconcernthathomeownersareinarush-to-sellmode.Also,theaskingpriceindex

(Figure4)impliesmorehomesellersareraisingtheirlistingprice,indicatinganacceleratedclearingpricediscovery.

Onproductmix,unitsvaluedatRMB3morbelowrepresentthemajorityofsecondary

transactionsinBeijingandShanghai(Figures9-10),andthedivergencebetweenprimaryandsecondaryASP(Figures7-8)increasinglysuggestsanupgradetrend.Webelievethe

secondarymarketwillserveasanupgradeenablerratherthananexitchannel,benefitingdevelopersthatfocusonhigher-endmarkets.

Finally,homepricestabilisationisthekeyindicatorofabroadmarketrecoveryandcriticaltorebuildhomebuyers’confidence.Bothprimaryandsecondarypriceshaveseennarrower

declinesoverthepastfewmonths,andweexpectfurtherimprovementonthebackofstrongsalesvolumesandcontinuedpolicymomentum.

WebelieveourpreferreddevelopersCRLandC&D(bothratedBuy)wouldbenefitfromresilientupgraderdemandandthemarginrecoverytrendintheresidentialsegment.Inaddition,we

thinkCRLandSeazen(ratedBuy)willrideaK-shapedconsumptionrecoveryandC-REITtailwind,giventheirleadingpositionsintoptierandlowertiercities,respectively.

Figure1:Shanghai’sweeklysecondarytransactionvolumehitnewhighssince2021

0

Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26Weeklysecondarytransactions

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

16-22Mar:7,488unitsArecordhighsince2021

Source:WIND,HSBC

Equities●REMD

https://www

HSBC

24March2026

3

Figure2:Dailyaveragesecondaryunitssoldm.t.dexceedthelevelpostSep.24stimulus

215204160160

92

FoshanShenzhenSuzhouHangzhouXiamenGuangzhou

Jan-Feb20261-23Mar

270

ShanghaiChengduBeijingNanjing

Nov-25Dec-25

973

711

627

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Source:WIND,HSBC

Figure3:Secondarylistingsdecline8%onaveragevsend.2025

21%10%79%

-3%-3%-2%-1%-1%

-3%-24%

-16%-24%

68%

-34%

-7%-6%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%

-40%

Feb-26vsFeb-25Feb-26vsDec-25

1%

-5%

-3%

-13%

-6%

-9%

-4%

-7%

Source:CREIS,HSBC

Figure4:Centalineaskingpriceindex

70%

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26ShanghaiBeijingShenzhenGuangzhouTier-1average

Source:Centaline,HSBC

Equities●REMD

https://www

HSBC

24March2026

4

Figure5:PrimaryASPm-o-mdeclineturnaroundintier-1citiesinFebruary

1.2%

0.8%

0.4%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.8%

-1.2%

Jan21Feb22Mar23Apr24May25

Tier-1Tier-2Tier-3/4

Source:NBS,HSBC

Figure7:Beijing–decliningaverageunitpriceforsecondarytransactions

7.66.7

5.45.6

20212022Primary

7.2

4.8

2024

Secondary

RMBm

6.3

5.7

2020

7.5

4.2

2025

7.3

5.3

2023

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Source:CREIS,CRIC,Anjuke,Lianjia,HSBC

Figure9:Beijing–percentageofunitsworth<RMB3mintotalsecondary

transactions

37%

32%28%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

25%

2022

24%

2021

22%

2020

<RMB3m

2023

2024

2025

Source:CREIS,HSBC

Figure6:Allcitytiersseerecovering

secondaryASPm-o-mtrendinFebruary

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%

-1.5%

Jan21Feb22Mar23Apr24May25

Tier-1Tier-2Tier-3/4

Source:NBS,HSBC

Figure8:Shanghai–wideningaverage

unitpricegapforprimaryandsecondarytransactions

7.26.2

3.33.3

20212022Primary

RMBm

6.5

3.3

2020

10.0

3.5

2025

9.3

3.5

2024

7.6

3.4

2023

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Secondary

Source:CREIS,CRIC,Anjuke,Lianjia,HSBC

Figure10:Shanghai–percentageofunitsworth<RMB3mintotalsecondary

transactions

84.6%85.6%86.1%84.7%82.7%83.1%59.1%61.3%63.6%61.1%61.1%63.9%

202020212022202320242025

<RMB5m<RMB3m

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Source:CRIC,HSBC

Equities●REMD

https://www

HSBC

24March2026

5

Valuationcharts

Figure11:SOEdevelopers’forwardPE(x)

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

Apr-10Apr-12Apr-14Apr-16Apr-18Apr-20Apr-22Apr-24

12MforwardPE-1SD

Mean+1SD

Note:TheaverageforwardPEmultiplesofCOLI,CRL,Vanke,Greentown,Yuexiu,C&DInt’l,andLongforarebasedonBloombergconsensus.

Source:Bloomberg,HSBC

Figure13:2026YTDsharepriceperformance

10

9

5

-2

-3

-3

-5

-5

-6

-6

-8

-9

-12

-14

-19

-28

%

ChinaJinmaoGreentown CRLand Seazen Yuexiu COLI LongforHSI

Agile

SZInvestment

CoverageaverageVankeShimaoYanlord

C&D

CG

CIFI-57

-60-50-40-30-20-1001020

Note:Pricedasof23March2026.

Source:Bloomberg,HSBC

Figure12:SOEdevelopers’NAVdiscount(%)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

0%

-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%

-80%

%toNAVMean

+1SD

-1SD

Source:Bloomberg,HSBCestimates

Figure14:SOEdevelopers’trailingPB(x)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

TrailingPB(x)Mean

+1SD

-1SD

Note:TheaveragetrailingPBmultiplesofCOLI,CRL,Vanke,Greentown,Yuexiu,andC&DInternationalarebasedonmonthlydata.

Source:Bloomberg,HSBC

Equities●REMD

https://www

HSBC

24March2026

6

Figure15:Valuationsummary

SharePrice

Target

Price

(HKD)

MktCap3MADTV

(USDbn)(USDm)

NAV(HKD/sh)

(Disc)/Prem(%)

PE(x)

Yield(%)

PB(x)

2024a

NetGearing(%)

CompanyTickerRating

(HKD)

2025e

2026e

2027e

2025e

Propertydevelopers

Agile3383HK

Hold

0.26

0.40

0.2

0.2

1.6

(84)

n.m.

n.m.

n.m.

-

0.0

116

C&DInt’l1908HK

Buy

12.63

20.10

3.6

12.3

42.8

(70)

7.0

5.5

5.0

7.4

0.6

26

COLI688HK

Hold

11.89

14.70

16.6

38.4

28.1

(58)

9.0

9.0

8.6

4.4

0.3

34

CRLand1109HK

Buy

28.50

39.00

26.0

74.0

57.4

(50)

8.2

7.6

7.0

4.5

0.7

35

ChinaVanke2202HK

Reduce

3.00

3.00

6.5

19.9

7.2

(58)

n.m.

n.m.

n.m.

-

0.2

85

CIFI884HK

Hold

0.07

0.24

0.2

1.9

1.5

(95)

n.m.

n.m.

n.m.

-

0.0

38

CountryGarden2007HK

Hold

0.30

0.50

1.6

19.6

3.1

(90)

n.m.

n.m.

n.m.

-

n.m.

n.m.

ChinaJinmao817HK

Hold

1.33

1.50

2.3

9.4

3.6

(63)

11.1

9.5

8.6

3.3

0.4

84

3900HK

GreentownChina

Hold

9.24

11.80

3.0

15.8

22.3

(59)

12.0

7.1

5.3

3.8

0.6

61

Longfor960HK

Hold

8.16

11.60

7.3

22.3

41.6

(80)

14.6

12.3

7.3

2.1

0.3

42

Seazen1030HK

Buy

2.00

3.20

1.9

10.7

7.7

(74)

27.9

8.8

6.5

-

0.3

56

ShimaoGroup813HK

Hold

0.17

0.40

0.2

1.2

1.9

(91)

n.m.

n.m.

n.m.

-

n.m.

n.m.

ShenzhenInv604HK

Hold

0.74

0.80

0.8

1.0

2.3

(68)

n.m.

n.m.

29.2

-

0.2

82

Yanlord(SGD)YLLGSP

Hold

0.60

0.53

0.9

1.8

1.6

(63)

n.m.

16.1

15.0

-

0.2

39

Yuexiu123HK

Hold

3.86

5.20

2.0

6.3

18.5

(79)

43.8

9.8

7.2

1.0

0.3

71

Average

(72)

16.7

9.5

10.0

1.8

0.3

59

Propertybrokerageservice

providers

BEKEUS

KEHoldings

(Beike)(USD)

Buy

15.42

19.10

18.7

81.9

n.a.

n.a.

24.2

20.6

15.8

1.7

1.8

netcash

Propertymanagers

A-Living3319HK

Hold

1.94

3.20

0.4

0.7

n.a

n.a

3.7

3.4

3.1

6.8

0.3

netcash

COPL2669HK

Hold

3.99

4.40

1.7

6.2

n.a.

n.a.

7.5

7.1

6.7

3.9

2.3

netcash

CRMixc1209HK

Hold

43.72

47.00

12.7

23.1

n.a

n.a

23.1

20.9

19.2

4.5

5.5

netcash

CGServices6098HK

Hold

5.65

6.20

2.4

6.6

n.a.

n.a.

5.6

5.3

4.9

10.6

0.4

netcash

GreentownServ2869HK

Buy

4.26

5.10

1.7

1.9

n.a

n.a

13.9

12.5

11.4

5.6

1.6

netcash

ShimaoServices873HK

Hold

0.60

0.78

0.2

0.1

n.a.

n.a.

3.2

3.0

2.9

-

0.2

netcash

SunacServices1516HK

Reduce

1.07

1.40

0.4

2.4

n.a

n.a

8.4

5.2

5.0

6.5

0.6

netcash

Average

9.3

8.2

7.6

5.4

1.6

Note:Pricedasof23March2026.NA–Notapplicable/available.NM–Notmeaningful.

Source:Bloomberg,HSBCestimates

Equities●REMD

https://www

HSBC

24March2026

7

Valuationandrisks

ValuationRiskstoourview

CRLand1109HK

Currentprice:

HKD28.50

Targetprice:

HKD39.00

Upside:

36.8%

Methodology:TheNAViscalculatedbyaddingupthegrossassetvalues(GAVs)

ofdevelopmentprojects(DPs)andinvestmentprojects(IPs),thensubtractingnet

debt,basedoncompanyreports.Ourassignmentofatargetdiscountisona

relativebasis;companiesthatsharesimilaroperational/financialstrengthsand

executiontrackrecordsshouldbeassignedthesametargetdiscount.

Assumptions:ANAVdiscountof32%,setat0.25SDabovethehistoricalmean,

isappliedtoourNAVpershareestimateofHKD57.40(allunchanged).Weuse

0.25SDabovethehistoricalmeaninthevaluationtoreflectCRLand’sincreasein

salesmomentum,strongrecurrentincome,andsolidexecutiontrackrecord.

OurunchangedtargetpriceofHKD39.00impliesc37%upsidetothecurrentshare

price;accordingly,wemaintainourBuyratingonthestock.

MichelleKwok*|

michellekwok@.hk|

+85229966918

Keydownsiderisks

uInabilitytomaintainsalesmomentum

uLower-than-expectedmargins

uAnymaterialslowdownintheshoppingmallsegment

uInabilitytomaintaindividendstability

uUncertaintiesrelatedtomacroeconomicandproperty-specificpolicies

Buy

C&D

International1908HK

Currentprice:

HKD12.63

Targetprice:

HKD20.10

Upside:

59.1%

Methodology:TheNAViscalculatedbyaddingupthegrossassetvalues(GAVs)

ofdevelopmentprojects(DPs)andinvestmentprojects(IPs),thensubtractingnet

debt,basedoncompanyreports.Ourassignmentofatargetdiscountisona

relativebasis;companiesthatsharesimilaroperational/financialstrengthsand

executiontrackrecordsshouldbeassignedthesametargetdiscount.

Assumptions:ANAVdiscountof53%,setat0.25SDabovethehistoricalmean,

isappliedtoourNAVpershareestimateofHKD42.80(allunchanged).Weusea

discountthatis0.25SDabovethehistoricalmeantoreflecttheencouraging

marginrecoverytrendanduniquecompetitiveedgesupportedbyayoung

landbank.

OurunchangedtargetpriceofHKD20.10impliesc59%upsidetothecurrentshare

price;accordingly,wemaintainourBuyratingonthestock.

StephenWang*,

CFA|stephen.wang@.hk|

+85222841675

Keydownsiderisks

uLandacquisitionslowdown

uSharpsalesdeterioration

uSteepmargincompression

uShareplacementatdeepdiscounts

uJVprojectrisks

uPolicyuncertainties

Buy

Seazen1030HK

Currentprice:

HKD2.00

Targetprice:

HKD3.20

Upside:

60.0%

Methodology:TheNAViscalculatedbyaddingupthegrossassetvalues(GAVs)

ofdevelopmentprojects(DPs)andinvestmentprojects(IPs),thensubtractingnet

debt,basedoncompanyreports.Ourassignmentofatargetdiscountisona

relativebasis;companiesthatsharesimilaroperational/financialstrengthsand

executiontrackrecordsshouldbeassignedthesametargetdiscount.

Assumptions:ANAVdiscountof59%,setatthehistoricalmean,isappliedtoour

NAVpershareestimateofHKD7.70(allunchanged).Weuseadiscountatthe

historicalmeantoreflecttheimprovingriskappetiteonretaillandlordsand

increasingrecurringrevenuecontribution.

OurunchangedtargetpriceofHKD3.20impliesc60%upsidetothecurrentshare

price;accordingly,wemaintainourBuyratingonthestock.

StephenWang*,

CFA|stephen.wang@.hk|

+85222841675

Keydownsiderisks

uRisingliquiditypressureandcreditdefaultrisk

uSignificantslowdowninrentalincome

uLarger-than-expectednetlossfromDPs

uShareplacementatdeepdiscounts

uRisksrelatedtojointly-developedprojects

uMacroeconomicandpolicyuncertainties

Buy

Note:Pricedasof23March2026.

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.andnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations.Source:Bloomberg,HSBCestimates

8

Disclosureappendix

AnalystCertification

Thefollowinganalyst(s),economist(s),orstrategist(s)whois(are)primarilyresponsibleforthisreport,includinganyanalyst(s)whosename(s)appear(s)asauthorofanindividualsectionorsectionsofthereportandanyanalyst(s)namedasthecoveringanalyst(s)ofasubsidiarycompanyinasum-of-the-partsvaluationcertifies(y)thattheopinion(s)onthesubjectsecurity(ies)orissuer(s),anyviewsorforecastsexpressedinthesection(s)ofwhichsuchindividual(s)is(are)namedasauthor(s),andanyotherviewsorforecastsexpressedherein,includinganyviewsexpressedonthebackpageoftheresearchreport,accuratelyreflecttheirpersonalview(s)andthatnopartoftheircompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orviewscontainedinthisresearchreport:MichelleKwok,OliverYuandStephenWang,CFA.

Importantdisclosures

Equities:Stockratingsandbasisforfinancialanalysis

HSBCanditsaffiliates,includingtheissuerofthisreport(“HSBC”)believesaninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstancessuchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings,risktoleranceandotherconsiderationsandthatinvestorsutilisevariousdisciplinesandinvestmenthorizonswhenmakinginvestmentdecisions.Ratingsshouldnotbeusedorreliedoninisolationasinvestmentadvice.Differentsecuritiesfirmsuseavarietyofratingstermsaswellasdifferentratingsystemstodescribetheirrecommendationsandthereforeinvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsoftheratingsusedineachresearchreport.Further,investorsshouldcarefullyreadtheentireresearchreportandnotinferitscontentsfromtheratingbecauseresearchreportscontainmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalysts'viewsandthebasisfortherating.

From23rdMarch2015HSBChasassignedratingsonthefollowingbasis:

Thetargetpriceisbasedontheanalyst’sassessmentofthestock’sactualcurrentvalue,althoughweexpectittotakesixto12monthsforthemarketpricetoreflectthis.Whenthetargetpriceismorethan20%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaBuy;whenitisbetween5%and20%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockmaybeclassifiedasaBuyoraHold;whenitisbetween5%belowand5%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaHold;whenitisbetween5%and20%belowthecurrentshareprice,thestockmaybeclassifiedasaHoldoraReduce;andwhenitismorethan20%belowthecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaReduce.

Ourratingsarere-calibratedagainstthesebandsatthetimeofany'materialchange'(initiationorresumptionofcoverage,changeintargetpriceorestimates).

Upside/Downsideisthepercentagedifferencebetweenthetargetpriceandtheshareprice.

Priortothisdate,HSBC’sratingstructurewasappliedonthefollowingbasis:

Foreachstockwesetarequiredrateofreturncalculatedfromthecostofequityforthatstock’sdomesticor,asappropriate,regionalmarketestablishedbyourstrategyteam.Thetargetpriceforastockrepresentedthevaluetheanalystexpectedthestocktoreachoverourperformancehorizon.Theperformancehorizonwas12months.ForastocktobeclassifiedasOverweight,thepotentialreturn,whichequalsthepercentagedifferencebetweenthecurrentsharepriceandthetargetprice,includingtheforecastdividendyieldwhenindicated,hadtoexceedtherequiredreturnbyatleast5percentagepointsoverthesucceeding12months(or10percentagepointsforastockclassifiedasVolatile*).ForastocktobeclassifiedasUnderweight,thestockwasexpectedtounderperformitsrequiredreturnbyatleast5percentagepointsoverthesucceeding12months(or10percentagepointsforastockclassifiedasVolatile*).StocksbetweenthesebandswereclassifiedasNeutral.

*Astockwasclassifiedasvolatileifitshistoricalvolatilityhadexceeded40%,ifthestockhadbeenlistedforlessthan12months(unlessitwasinanindustryorsectorwherevolatilityislow)oriftheanalystexpectedsignificantvolatility.However,stockswhichwedidnotconsidervolatilemayinfactalsohavebehavedinsuchaway.Historicalvolatilitywasdefinedasthepastmonth'saverageofthedaily365-daymovingaveragevolatilities.Inordertoavoidmisleadinglyfrequentchangesinrating,however,volatilityhadtomove2.5percentagepointspastthe40%benchmarkineitherdirectionforastock'sstatustochange.

9

Ratingdistributionforlong-terminvestmentopportunities

Asof31December2025,thedistributionofallindependentratingspublishedbyHSBCisasfollows:

Buy57%(12%oftheseprovidedwithInvestmentBankingServicesinthepast12months)Hold37%(13%oftheseprovidedwithInvestmentBankingServicesinthepast12months)Sell6%(5%oftheseprovidedwithInvestmentBankingServicesinthepast12months)

Forthepurposesofthedistributionabovethefollowingmappingstructureisusedduringthetransitionfromtheprevioustocurrentratingmodels:underourpreviousmodel,Overweight=Buy,Neutral=HoldandUnderweight=Sell;underourcurrentmodelBuy=Buy,Hold=HoldandReduce=Sell.Forratingdefinitionsunderbothmodels,pleasesee“Stockratingsandbasisforfinancialanalysis”above.

Forthedistributionofnon-independentratingspublishedbyHSBC,pleaseseethedisclosurepageavailableat

/gbm/financial-regulation/investment-recommendations-disclosures

.

Sharepriceandratingchangesforlong-terminvestmentopportunities

C&DInternational(1908.HK)sharepriceperformanceHKDVsHSBCratinghistory

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

Source:HSBC

ChinaResourcesLand(1109.HK)sharepriceperformanceHKDVsHSBCratinghistory

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

44

39

34

29

24

19

Source:HSBC

Rating&targetpricehistory

Price1

Price2

Price3

Price4

Price5

Price6

Price7

Price8

Price9

Price10

47.9046.2044.2029.6035.6032.5036.3043.2043.00

39.00

2023

2024

2024

2024

2024

2025

2025

2025

2025

2026

KwokKwok

KwokKwok

KwokKwok

KwokKwok

KwokKwok

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

Michelle

FromToDateAnalyst

N/A

Buy03Oct2023

StephenWang,CFA

Buy

Hold16Jan2025

StephenWang,CFA

Hold

Buy27Mar2025

StephenWang,CFA

Targetprice

ValueDate

Analyst

Price1

25.9003Oct2023

StephenWang,CFA

Price2

25.4011Jan2024

StephenWang,CFA

Price3

18.8014Mar2024

StephenWang,CFA

Price4

19.5022Mar2024

StephenWang,CFA

Price5

22.7030May2024

StephenWang,CFA

Price6

20.7023Aug2024

StephenWang,CFA

Price7

21.1001Oct2024

StephenWang,CFA

Price8

12.8016Jan2025

StephenWang,CFA

Price9

19.6027Mar2025

StephenWang,CFA

Price10

21.2017Apr2025

StephenWang,CFA

Price11

19.9023Jul2025

StephenWang,CFA

Price12

21.7022Aug2025

StephenWang,CFA

Price13

Source:HSBC

20.1027Jan2026

StephenWang,CFA

Rating&target

pricehistory

From

ToDate

Analyst

Hold

Buy12Aug2015

MichelleKwok

Targetprice

ValueDate

Analyst

09Jan

11Jan

26Mar

28Aug01Oct16Jan23Apr24Jul27Aug15Jan

Source:HSBC

10

SeazenGroup(1030.HK)sharepriceperformanceHKDVsHSBCratinghistory

Rating&targetpricehistory

FromToDateAnalyst

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

Mar-25

Mar-26

Source:HSBC

N/A

Buy

15Sep2025

StephenWang,CFA

Targetprice

Value

Date

Analyst

Price1

3.30

15Sep2025

StephenWang,CFA

Price2

3.20

05Feb2026

StephenWang,CFA

Source:HSBC

Toviewalistofalltheindependentfundamentalratings/recommendationsdisseminatedbyHSBCduringthepreceding12-monthperiod,andthelocationwherewepublishourquarterlydistributionofnon-fundamentalrecommendations(applicabletoFixedIncomeandCurrenciesresearchonly),pleaseusethefollowinglinkstoaccessthedisclosurepage:

ClientsofHSBCPrivateBank:

/Disclosures

Allotherclients:

/A/Disclosures

HSBC&Analystdisclosures

Disclosurechecklist

Company

Ticker

Recentprice

Pricedate

Disclosure

C&DINTERNATIONAL

1908.HK

12.92

24Mar2026

–

CHINARESOURCESLAND

1109.HK

28.76

24Mar2026

1,4,5,6,7,11

SEAZENGROUP

1030.HK

2.06

24Mar2026

–

Source:HSBC

1HSBChasmanagedorco-managedapublicofferingofsecuritiesforthiscompanywithinthepast12months.

2HSBCexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromthiscompanyinthenext3months.

3Atthetimeofpublicationofthisreport,HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.isaMarketMakerinsecuritiesissuedbythiscompany.

4Asof28February2026,HSBCbeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthiscompany.

5ThiscompanywasaclientofHSBCorhadduringthepreceding12monthperiodbeenaclientofand/orpaidcompensationtoHSBCinrespectofinvestmentbankingservice