寒武纪25Q4存货大幅增加供应链稳步改善

20257.4202596.9549518.725Q317.33.1业规律，为其后续季度给下游互联网等商业客户的产品交付做好了充足准备。AI根129H200芯片H200当前英伟达的主力产品为BlackwellH200200H00AI（二）主要财务数据分析：202555.3%1.6202564.81.47PCT。33948.1%44.5%6.98PCT。IP229455.0%100.0%。146670.3PCT。1)2026022916；2)2022093015；(3)2025年，研发费用13.5亿元，同比增加11.1%，研发费用率20.8%，上年同期103.5%。-5.0-16.269.3202418.064.3202430.933.5-45.3-4.1202539.9亿元，上年同期47895. 202549.4202431.720256.92024298418.991%25Q419.020.4亿元。表1：年度财务关键数据（单位：百万元）2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年2025年营业收入458.93721.05729.03709.391174.466497.20营业成本158.87271.15249.62218.80508.412913.88销售费用44.9371.4282.7182.0770.0668.03管理费用165.10395.69296.63153.56180.53198.09研发费用768.281135.741523.111117.511215.871350.80财务费用-22.25-52.93-51.89-44.77-19.3210.96投资净收益118.4490.1091.3974.2522.688.89营业利润-434.46-824.21-1324.25-875.81-455.752061.39归母净利润-434.51-824.95-1256.56-848.44-452.342059.23扣非净利润-658.75-1110.75-1579.48-1042.86-864.951769.93主要比率毛利率65.38%62.39%65.76%69.16%56.72%55.15%销售费用率9.79%9.91%11.35%11.57%5.96%1.05%管理费用率35.97%54.88%40.69%21.65%15.37%3.05%研发费用率167.41%157.51%208.92%157.53%103.53%20.79%营业利润率-94.67%-114.31%-181.64%-123.46%-38.80%31.73%归母净利率-94.68%-114.41%-172.36%-119.60%-38.51%31.69%YOY营业收入3.38%57.12%1.11%-2.70%65.56%453.21%归母净利润63.15%-89.86%-52.32%32.47%46.69%-扣非净利润-74.86%-68.61%-42.20%33.97%17.06%-财报数据（百万元）24Q324Q425Q125Q2财报数据（百万元）24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q4营业收入120.54989.161,111.401,769.241,726.781889.77营业成本58.82425.45489.13780.50790.21854.04销售费用14.8829.2314.3913.7314.5525.35管理费用88.01-89.7843.0754.9239.7560.35研发费用211.57556.83272.57269.32300.93507.98财务费用-2.665.7510.18-2.108.20-5.31投资净收益12.90-210.42-4.76营业利润-195.15272.17355.35683.10567.25455.69归母公司净利润-194.38272.15355.47682.62566.56454.58扣非净利润-253.57-2.50275.96636.60506.32351.05主要比率毛利率51.20%56.99%55.99%55.88%54.24%54.81%销售费用率12.34%2.96%1.29%0.78%0.84%1.34%管理费用率73.01%-9.08%3.88%3.10%2.30%3.19%研发费用率175.52%56.29%24.53%15.22%17.43%26.89%营业利润率-161.89%27.52%31.97%38.61%32.85%24.11%归母净利率-161.26%27.51%31.98%38.58%32.81%24.05%YoY营业收入284.59%75.51%4,230.22%4,425.01%1332.52%91.05%归母净利润26.06%768.58%---67.03%扣非净利润17.61%97.35%----QoQ营业收入208.30%720.60%12.36%59.19%-2.40%9.44%归母净利润35.94%240.01%30.61%92.03%-17.00%-19.76%扣非净利润27.08%99.01%11,145.91%130.68%-20.47%-30.67%二、盈利预测与投资建议143.4%/68.8%/59.0%；47.0/84.4/144.111.15/20.01/34.17元/AIAIAI再考虑当前AIAIAI以OpenClaw为代表的Agent相关应用以及AI辅助编程工具在最近三个月突破加AgentTokensAI20263月9日AI2026（三）：OpenClaw25%综合考虑公司行业地位、竞争优势、下游需求前景以及独立第三方平台的稀缺性等因素，基于审慎原则，参考可比公司估值水平，我们维持公司合理价值为1367.31元/表3（2026.03.12收盘公司名称公司代码业务类型市值（亿元）公司名称公司代码业务类型市值（亿元）2024A 2025E2026E2024A 2025E2026E澜起科技688008内存接口芯片18191412 2236315255 6057景嘉微300474图形处理芯片343-165 28108- 1224317海光信息688041GPU+CPU56251931 25424649180 205121备注：澜起科技、景嘉微和海光信息的预测来自 一致预测。三、风险提示供应链完善节奏的不确定性；国产AI芯片产品迭代和落地加剧行业竞争；国产AI芯片产业链自主可控建设节奏的不确定性；以互联网公司为代表的商业客户，国产化提升的需求节奏的不确定性。资产负债表 单位:人民币百万元 现金流量表 单位:人民币百万元 2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E 2024A 2025A2026E2027E2028E流动资产总额5,80012,08018,35527,41142,702经营活动现金流净额-1,618-498-1,5382,2197,277货币资金1,9861,3173,3955,14511,724合并净利润-4572,0584,7028,44414,408应收及预付1,1081,4212,9615,2788,396折旧摊销209285340345360存货1,7744,94410,32115,23321,221营运资金变动-1,443-3,258-6,539-6,512-7,501其他9314,3981,6781,7551,360其他00-371-240332非流动资产总额9171,3571,1571,086991投资活动现金流净额-412-4,5303,792-213-275长期股权投资247300265274259资本性开支-366-569-280-300-300固定资产231373277197117投资-90-3,9633,577-915在建工程150164144124104其他4414959610使用权资产1617171717融资活动现金流净额483,986212-256-422无形资产183189209229249股本融资564,137000其他91315245245245债权融资100-10020700资产总额6,71813,43819,51228,49743,692股利分配与偿付利息0-4-143-256-432流动负债总额8181,3332,6983,4924,702其他-108-47148010短期借款1000100100100现金净增加额-1,982-1,0432,4661,7506,580应付及预收5161,1172,3003,0574,261期初现金余额3,9541,9729293,3955,145其他203216298335341期末现金余额1,9729293,3955,14511,724非流动负债总额469261420420420长期借款00000应付债券00000其他469261420420420负债总额1,2871,5943,1183,9125,122股本417422422422422主要财务比率其他5,00511,41415,96524,15638,142 2024A 2025A2026E2027E2028E归母权益合计5,42311,83616,38724,57738,563成长能力少数股东权益87777营业收入增长率65.6%453.2%143.4%68.8%59.0%负债和股东权益6,71813,43819,51228,49743,692营业利润增长率--128.1%79.6%70.6%归母净利增长率--128.3%79.6%70.6%获利能力利润表 单位:人民币百万元毛利率56.7%55.2%47.8%48.6%48.6% 2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E净利率-38.9%31.7%29.7%31.6%34.0%营业收入1,1746,49715,81526,69142,426ROE-8.3%17.4%28.7%34.4%37.4%营业成本5082,9148,25713,71021,827偿债能力营业税金及附加32640670资产负债率19.2%11.9%16.0%13.7%11.7%销售费用706895133170有息负债率1.5%0.0%0.5%0.4%0.2%管理费用181198316400594流动比率7.89.1研发费用1,2161,3512,6894,2715,515利息保障倍数-504.21076.53079.12770.0财务费用-1911-41-740营运能力资产信用减值损失84-189-35-35-20应收账款周转率2.513.312.014.414.4公允价值变动收益05000存货周转率0.91.0投资收益239789610应付账款周转率1.05.1营业利润-4562,0614,7028,44514,410每股指标营业外收支0-2000每股收益-1.084.8811.1520.0234.17利润总额-4562,0594,7028,44514,410每股净资产12.9928.0738.8658.2891.45所得税费用11011每股经营现金流-3.88-1.18-3.655.2617.26合并净利润-4572,0584,7028,44414,408估值比率少数股东损益-5-1000PE-277.698.654.932.2归母净利润-4522,0594,7028,44414,408PB50.748.328.318.912.0EPS（元/股）-1.084.8811.1520.0234.17EV/EBITDA-225.292.853.030.6广发计算机 小组刘雪峰：家项组 入 。吴祖鹏周 源：于王钰翔：高级研究员，哥伦比亚大学运筹学硕士，2024年加入。戴亚敏：高级研究员，北京大学金融硕士，2024年加入。广发证券—行业投资评级说明：