2026-2027年全球经济展望报告逼近极限（英文）-

Economicoutlook

2026-27:Stretching

the

limits17

December2025Allianz

ResearchContent4Executive

Summary9Global

outlook:

Exceeding

previous

expectations

butdownside

risks

remain12Inflationandcentral

banks:divergence

ahead14Developed

markets:

running

on

two

speeds16Emerging

markets:selectivity

after

a

year

of

rally19Corporates:

Earnings

to

continue

to

grow

amidfragmentationandcapex

divergence28Capital

markets

outlook:

Resilience

despite

late-cycleconditionsAllianz

Research2•GlobalGDPgrowthremainsstrong...fornow.

It

is

expected

to

reach+2.9%

in2026

and

+2.8%

in2027,following

a

robust

+3%

in2025.

Carryovergrowth

from

a

strong2025in

the

US

and

China,

as

well

as

sustainedmomentum

in

the

face

of

disruptions,

account

for

over

two-thirds

of

theupward

revisioncomparedto

lastquarter.•TheUSeconomyisincreasinglyrunningontwospeeds.The

impact

ofthe

trade

war

has

been

milder,

at

just

-0.6pp

in2025

vs

-1.6pp

estimatedin

Q2.This

improvement

is

due

to

reduced

tariffs

(to

11%

effective

from27%announcedon2April)through

sector

exclusions

and

strategic

trade

dealswith

key

partners.Additionally,the

information

and

communicationsector,

including

AI,

has

fueled

more

than

half

of

US

GDP

growth

in2025,contributing

a

substantial

+1.1pp,

and

this

trend

is

expected

to

continue

in2026.We

have

revised

on

the

upside

our

forecast

for2026

to

+2.5%

on

theback

of

a

more

resilient

consumer,

a

higher

credit

impulse

andthe

positiveimpact

of

AI.•China’sexportgrowth

remainsthefront-runner–despitethetradewar!

Growth

hasexceededexpectations,

buoyed

bystronger-than-anticipated

externaldemand

(andsoft

imports).Thissurgewas

driven

by

frontloadingfrom

the

US

in

the

first

half

of

the

year,

strategic

rerouting

to

circumventtariffs,

expanding

marketshares

inthe

restoftheworld,

a

weaker

currency

and

competitive

prices.

Meanwhile,

domestic

demandstillstrugglesto

recoversustainably,withfurther

policysupport

neededand

likelyto

be

announced

by

Q12026.

In

this

context,

and

with

many

sectors

inovercapacity,

price

pressures

remain

low.•TheEurozoneoutlookremainsparforthecourse,withmoderategrowthaheadamidstructuralchallenges.GDP

growth

is

expected

at

+1.1%

in2026

after

+1.4%

in2025.

Excluding

volatile

national

accounts

in

Ireland,the

Eurozone

economy

will

accelerate

from

+0.9%

in2025to

+1.2%

in2026and

+1.3%

in2027.

Germany’s

economy

should

reach

+0.9%

growth

in

2026

–

astrong

reboundafterthreeconsecutiveyears

of

stagnation

or

recession

butstill

underwhelminggiventheavailablefiscal

stimulus

as

structuralheadwinds

persist.

France’s

GDP

will

grow

by

+1.1%

despite

the

ongoingpolitical

challenges,

benefitingfrom

a

renewed

investment

cycle.•Globaltradesurprisedontheupsideascompaniessteppeduptotheplatewithreroutingandmitigationstrategies.Half

ofthe

improvementin

our

forecast

for

trade

growth

(from

+2%to

+3.5%

in2025

and

from

+0.6%to

+1.3%

in2026)

has

been

driven

by

lower

tariffs,firms’

rerouting

andmitigationstrategies,

aswell

as

asurge

inAI-related

investments.

Overall,the

trade

war

pushed

volume

of

containers

back

to

2017

highs,mainlydriven

by

Asia.Ludovic

SubranChief

Investment

Officer&

Chief

Economistludovic.subran@alJordi

BascoCarreraHeadof

Private

Markets

InvestmentStrategyjordi.basco_carrera@Ana

BoataHeadof

Economic

Researchana.boata@Maxime

Darmet

CucchiariniSenior

Economist

for

UK,

US

&

Francemaxime.darmet@alliaLluis

DalmauTaulesEconomistforAfrica

&

Middle

Eastlluis.dalmau@allianz-trGuillaume

DejeanSenior

SectorAdvisorguillaume.dejean@allianz-trade.comBjoernGriesbachHeadof

Macroeconomicand

Capital

Markets

Researchbjoern.griesbach@Jasmin

GröschlSenior

Economistfor

Europejasmin.groeschl@aMichael

HeilmannSenior

Investment

Strategistmichael.heilmann@alAmerica

HernandezSenior

Investment

Strategistamerica.hernandez@allianz.comAlexander

HirtHead

of

Credit

and

Equityalexander.hirt@allBernhard

HirschHeadof

Ratesand

Emerging

Marketsbernhard.hirsch@Françoise

HuangSenior

EconomistforAsia

Pacificfrancoise.huang@allianz-traPatrick

KrizanSenior

Investment

Strategistpatrick.krizan@Ano

KuhanathanHeadofCorporate

Researchano.kuhanathan@Maria

LatorreSector

Advisor,

B2Bmaria.latorre@allianz-17

December

2025ExecutiveSummary3•Emergingmarketsarenot

justwatchingfromthesidelines:Theyremainresilientoverall,stillenjoyingamorepositivecyclethandevelopedmarketsandgenerallysolidexternalpositions.EMs

overall

remain

resilient,

still

enjoying

a

more

positivecyclethandeveloped

marketsand

generally

solid

externalpositions.

Supportfrom

a

lower

USD

andthe

Fed

easing

cycle

had

allowed

manyEM

central

banks

to

cut

rates

more

than

expected

in2025.

But

some

countriesmay

face

slowing

momentum

going

forward

(e.g.

India,

Indonesia,

Romania,

Russia

orTaiwan),while

current

account

deficits

have

beenwideningforsome

(Argentina,

Chile,

Colombia,

Indonesia,

Philippines,

Romania,Türkiye)

andsurpluses

haveturned

into

deficitsfor

others

(SaudiArabia,

Czech

Republic,Poland),

requiring

close

monitoring.•Monetaryandfiscalpolicy:supportiveintheUS,neutralinEurope.We

strongly

believethe

Fedwill

end

its

easing

cyclesoonerthan

markets

expect,withtheFederal

Funds

rate

to

settle

at3.5%

after

one

more25bps

cut

in

Q1.

Sticky

coreinflationandacceleratinggrowthwill

prevent

rates

from

going

too

far

belowtheTaylor

rule.

In

contrast,the

ECB

is

poisedto

hold

rates

at2.0%,with

riskstitledtothe

downside.

Onfiscal

policy,the

US

benefitsfrom

atangible

growthimpulsesupported

bythe

One

Big

Beautiful

Bill’s

loosening

offinancial

conditions

whereas

Europe’s

lingeringfiscal

concerns

arevisible

in

France’sstruggletocutspending

(leaving

deficits

near–5.1%

of

GDP)

and

contribute

to

higher

long-termyields.

Germany’s

fiscal

deficit

is

set

to

reach

-4.0%

of

GDP

in2026

after

-3.1%

ofGDP

in2025,the

highest

in

more

than

a

decade

outside

the

pandemic.•Corporatesaregoingthedistancein2026withstrongmomentumUS

earningsrose

+15%

in

Q32025,

and

global

AI

capex

is

set

to

reach

USD571bn.

Europehas

rebounded,

led

bytechand

pharma,whileauto

lags.

Balancesheets

aresolid,though

refinancingwill

be

costlier.As

manycorporates

havedeleveraged,

they

have

roomto

increase

borrowingtofund

necessarycapex.

Insolvenciesareexpected

to

increase

by

+3%

in2026,

especially

in

the

US

and

Europe.

Despiterobustfundamentals,geopoliticalfragmentationand

default

risksstill

cloud

theoutlook.•Despitebeinginthelatecycle,capitalmarketsarestillgoingforgold.Avolatileyeardrawstoa

close,

but

global

equities

posted

athird

year

of

robustgains.

Rates

remained

broadlystable,giventhe

heavy

news-flow,whiledollarthe

weakness

come

to

a

halt

in

the

second

half

of

2025.

Beneath

the

surface,however,

caution

prevails:

Defense

stocks

and

gold

emerged

as2025’s

standoutperformers

-

notAI.

Looking

ahead,we

expect

rates

and

currenciestotradelargelysideways

and

equity

returnstoslow

but

notfalter

astheAI

boomcontinues

at

a

slower

pace.We

see

a

critical

juncture

for

private

markets

in2026:

Rising

energy

and

grid

investment,the

ongoingAI

boom

andshifting

real-estate

valuesareclarifyingwhere

long-termvalue

is

returning,even

as

weaker

assets

showstress

in

a

more

mainstream

market.

Inthis

environment

ofstructuraldemand

andselective

pressure,

disciplined

investorsfocusingon

resilientcash

flowsandearly

positioningacross

private

marketsare

best

placed

to

capturedurable,

risk-adjusted

returns.•Thefollowingdownsiderisksneedtobeconsidered:institutional,geopolitical

and

financial.Firstly,

institutional

risks,

including

central

bank

independence,protectionism

and

election

outcomes,

increasethe

likelihood

of

negative

policyshifts.

Secondly,

geopolitical

risks

and

nationalsecurity

prioritieswill

continueto

causevolatility.

Finally,financial

risks,such

asthe

possibility

of

anAI-equitycorrection,

renewed

de-dollarization

pressures,turbulence

in

private

creditmarkets

and

concerns

overthesustainability

of

public

debt,will

continuetoincrease

throughout2026,

pushing

the

limits

of

a

benign

late

financial

cycle.Pierre

LebardPublicaffairs

Officerpierre.lebard@allianz-Maxime

LemerleLeadAdvisor,

Insolvency

Researchmaxime.lemerle@alliaYao

LuInvestment

Strategistyao.lu@allianz.comLina

MantheyInvestment

Strategistlina.

manthey@allianz.comMaddalena

MartiniSenior

Economistfor

Italy,

Greece,

Spain&

Beneluxmaddalena.

martini@alliaLuca

MonetaSenior

Economistfor

Emerging

Marketsluca.

moneta@Giovanni

ScarpatoEconomistfor

Central

&

Eastern

Europegiovanni.scarpato@allianSivagaminathan

SivasubramanianESGand

DataAnalystsivagaminathan.sivasubramanian@allianz-

Katharina

UtermöhlHeadofThematicand

Policy

Research

katharina.Utermöhl@Ziqi

YeInvestment

Strategistye.ziqi@allianz.comAllianz

Research4GlobalGDPgrowthisexceedingexpectations:Wenowexpectittoreach+2.9%in2026followingarobust+3%in2025.The

+0.4pp

upward

revision

in

ourforecastis

largely

driven

bythe

US

and

China,whichtogetheraccount

for

over

two-thirds

of

the

adjustment.

In

the

US,the

negative

impactofthetradewar

has

beensignificantlyreduced,with

a

revised

estimate

of

-0.6pp

in2025,

downfrom

the

-1.6pp

projected

back

in

Q2.This

stems

fromstrategictradedealsandsector-specifictariff

reductions,

which

havesignificantly

reducedthetrade

uncertaintyandthe

impact

on

growth

and

inflation.The

information

and

communicationsector,

particularlyAI,

is

a

majorcontributor,

driving

over

half

of

US

GDP

growth

in2025(+1.1pp),

a

trend

expected

to

persist

into2026.The

restis

explained

by

the

positive

fiscal

impulse

(+0.4pp),

ahigher

credit

impulse

(+0.3pp)

and

a

more

significantpositive

impact

from

AI

investments

(+0.2pp).All

together,this

raises

our

US

GDP

growth

forecast

to

+2.5%.

Chinaisalsooutperformingexpectations,fueled

by

stronger-than-anticipatedexternaldemand,thankstostrategicmaneuverssuch

asfrontloadingfromthe

US,tariffcircumvention,aweakercurrencyand

expanding

market

shares

in

emerging

markets.

Eurozone

growth

is

projectedto

increase

to

+1.1%

in2026following

a

+1.4%

rise

in2025.Germany

issetto

breakfreefrom

its

economicstagnation,accelerating

to

+0.9%

growth

in2026,while

France's

GDPis

expected

to

grow

by

+1.1%,

bolstered

by

a

renewedinvestmentcycleandadynamic

export

landscape

despite

ongoing

politicalchallenges.Althoughthe

regionfaceshighfiscal

concerns

affecting

long-term

interest

rates,

itbenefitsfrom

lowershort-term

ratesthat

arefacilitating

acredit-growth

resurgence.Global

outlook:

Exceeding

previousexpectations

but

downside

risks

remain17

December

20255Yet,severalrisksarelooming.US

institutional

uncertainty,

including

Federal

Reserve

leadershipchanges,tarifffluctuations

and

mid-term

election

outcomes,

increasetheprobability

of

a

negative

policyshift.

Geopoliticaltensions

may

intensify,

rangingfrom

an

escalation

in

Ukraineincluding

a

NATO-Russia

involvementto

a

breakdownofthe

US-Chinatradetruce,withtariffs

potentiallyreaching

100%.

Financial

risks

include

a

possible

AI-equitycorrection,

renewedde-dollarization

pressures,turbulencein

private

credit

markets

and“Truss-style”

instability

ingovernment

bond

markets

in

high-deficit

economies.

InEurope,the

lack

of

reform

in

Germany

could

limit

effortstostimulate

economic

growthwithfiscalstimulus.Anyofthesefactorscould

leadto

lessgrowth,

unfavorable

inflationdynamicsand

market

instability.FiscalpolicydivergencewillpersistbetweentheUSandEurozone.Inthe

US,fiscal

policy

is

setto

be

less

ofa

drag

on

growth

in

2026.The

federal

deficit

is

expectedto

increase

only

marginally,

reaching

-6.7%

of

GDP.Higher

customs

receipts

(+USD75bn

expected

relative

to2025)andwelfarespendingcuts

should

largely

offset

the

impactoftax

reductionsand

increasedspending

on

defense

and

homelandsecurity.Thiswillshiftthe

fiscalstance

from

negative

(-0.9%

of

GDP)

in2025to

broadlyneutral

in2026.The

Eurozone’s

fiscal

outlook

is

markedbydiverging

national

positionsandshaped

bythe

dualchallengeofdeploying

NGEUfundsand

adaptingto

new

security

priorities.Theslow

paceoffund

absorption

and

the

needto

balanceeconomic

recoverywith

increasedspending

pressuresaretesting

policymakers’abilitytosustain

growth

and

resilience.

Germany

is

pursuinganexpansionarystance,with

major

infrastructureinvestments,

butslow

implementation

and

additionalfiscal

pressures

are

limitingthe

immediate

impact

ongrowth.

France

continuestograpplewitha

large

deficitandfiscal

uncertaintyaseffortsto

consolidate

publicfinancesarecomplicated

by

political

pressuresandcompeting

budgetarydemands.

Italy

hasadoptedaprudentapproach

butfacesfiscalchallenges

as

NGEUsupport

phases

out

and

new

commitments

emerge.

InSpain,

robust

economic

growth

is

overshadowed

bypolitical

gridlock,withthegovernment

unableto

passanew

budget

and

at

risk

of

missing

out

onthefull

benefitsof

its

NGEU

allocation.

Nevertheless,the

overall

Eurozonefiscal

stance

is

expected

to

remain

broadly

neutral

in2026and2027.2025f2026f2027f3.02.92.82.12.52.02.52.32.52.42.22.21.41.01.21.41.11.40.20.91.30.81.11.10.60.81.02.92.12.02.32.62.73.43.82.60.92.02.03.43.53.84.54.24.05.04.74.41.41.41.07.46.56.32.53.13.33.83.93.73.93.94.01.11.31.5Growth(yearly%)GlobalUSALatinAmericaBrazilUKEurozoneGermanyFranceItalySpainCentralandEasternEuropePolandRussiaTürkiyeAsia-PacificChinaJapanIndiaMiddleEastSaudiArabiaAfricaSouthAfrica20232.92.92.13.20.30.6-0.71.61.12.51.30.24.15.14.55.41.28.82.10.62.70.820242.92.81.83.01.10.9-0.51.10.53.52.33.04.33.34.15.0-0.26.71.82.03.40.5Table1:Real

GDP

growthforecasts,

%Sources:

LSEG

Datastream,Allianz

ResearchAllianz

Research6Amidatransformativeyearforglobalsupplychains,

globaltradeshowedresiliencethrough2025,andwill

continuetodosothroughthebeginningof2026.Yet,the

negative

impact

of

highertariffsshould

ultimatelytranslate

intoslowergrowth.

Reroutingandtradediversification

meantthat

higher

UStariff

rates

have

hada

milder

impactonglobaltradethan

previouslyfeared.Additionally,there

has

been

avisiblesoftening

inthetone

of

UStrade

policysince

autumn.

Inthis

context,

globaltradewill

likely

continuetoshow

resiliencethroughtheend

of2025and

we

have

raised

our

forecast

for

full-yeargrowth

in

volume

terms

by

+1.5pps

to

+3.5%

(see

Figure4).

Thedealsandsoftening

in

UStrade

policy

explain

0.1pp

ofthe

revision,

andstrategicfrontloading,

reroutingandtradediversificationexplainanother

0.3pp.With

moreresilienttrade

ingoodsthan

previouslyexpected,tradeinservices

hasalso

beensupported,contributing

another

0.3pp.ThecontinuedoutperformanceofAI-related

sectors

andthe

resilienceoftheglobal

economy

have

also

lifted

globaltradethisyear

morethanwe

hadforecast.

Thisresilience

should

continue

in

the

beginning

of2026

and

weexpect

growth

+1.3%for

the

full

year,with

potential

upsideas

uncertainty

persists.

NorthAmericaandAsia-Pacificareexpected

to

face

the

largest

decelerations

through2026,

while

Europeshould

come

out

amongthe

most

resilient,driven

by

improvements

in

Germany

andthe

UK

comparedto

the

previous

year

(see

Figure2).3.50%2.0%1.1%

1.3%-1620142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027Sources:

LSEG

Datastream,Allianz

ResearchUS

UKGermany

FranceItaly

Spain20232024202520262027Figure2:Global

trade

of

goods

and

services,

annual

growth,%NorthAmericaAfrica&Middle

East20-2-4-6-8-10-12-146%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%Sources:

CPB,Allianz

ResearchFigure1:Fiscal

balance,

%

of

GDPEuropeLatin

AmericaAPAC(excl.China)ChinaWorld17

December

20254.2%78GlobalcontainertradeisshiftingtowardsAsiaandemergingregions,whilefreightpricesnormalizefrom

post-pandemicextremes.Between

October

2017

andOctober2025,

global

volumes

rose

by

+19.7%

(from13.5mn

to

16.2mn

twenty-foot

equivalent

units

(TEUs)),almost

entirely

driven

byAsia

(+2.0mnTEUs,

lifting

itsshare

from

50%to

54%)

and“other”

regions

(from3.6mnto4.45mn),while

Europe

slipped

slightly

(from

2.04mn

to1.98mn)

and

North

America

fell

more

sharply

(from

1.19mnto

1.04mn).

Comparing

October2024and

October2025showsthattrade

relationshipsaregradually

rebalancing:Intra-Asiaflows

rosefrom27.1%to

27.6%

ofworld

TEUs,whileAsia–NorthAmericaandAsia–Europedeclined(from

12.8%to

11.5%

and

9.6%to

9.1%,

respectively).

SinceJanuary2024,

CTS

freight

indices

have

moved

from

abrief

post-pandemic

repricing

phase

into

a

clear

cooling.After

the

sharp2021–22surge

(Asia

at270,

total

around200),

prices

fell

back

toward

their

long-run60–80

rangein2023before

a

smaller,Asia-led

rebound

in2024,

whichleft

indices

still

relatively

elevated

in

October2024

(Asiaat

103,

Europe

at

74,

North

America

at

64).

Since

early2025,

however,the

adjustment

has

turned

decisivelydisinflationary:

From

April

to

October2025,the

globalindex

declined

from78to

73,

pulled

down

mainly

by

Asia(from

86to

80),with

Europe

and

North

America

easingfurther

to67and61.A

70%

volume

/

30%weighted

pricecompositethereforestillsignalsexpandingtrade

inlevel

terms,

but

momentum

has

clearly

rolled

over:Themixed

indicator

peaks

in

mid-2024when

higher

volumescoincidewithtemporarilyfirmer

rates,thenturns

mildlycontractionary

by

late2025asfalling

pricesand

softerAsian

growth

morethan

offset

resilient

NorthAmericanvolumes,

leaving

NorthAmerica

asthe

only

regionwith

a

modestly

positive

mixedsignal.

AsiaEuropeNorthAmerica

Other1358536001

19520496740162564

46710391988876320000150001000050000Figure3:Total

global

containervolume,thousandTEUsOctober2017October2025Sources:

CTS,Allianz

ResearchAllianz

ResearchSources:Allianz

ResearchGoinginto2026,softertradegrowthwilllikelybedriven

byaslowdownofAsianexports,inparticularfromTaiwan,Thailand,Indonesia,VietnamandChina.Yet,

ongoing

negotiationsoffree-tradeagreements,

includingthose

with

the

EU,

India,ASEAN

and

the

UAE,

as

wellasthe

implementationofalreadysigned

ones

(such

asthe

EU-MERCOSUR),

could

provide

upside

risks

to

tradegrowth

in2026,

and

in

the

long-term

could

contribute

toshiftingtheshapeofglobal

trade

in

the

future.

The

year

aheadwill

not

bewithoutsurprises.Withtariffs

likelytobe

overturned

bythe

US

Supreme

Court,theWhite

Housemay

resort

to

other

tools,such

as

Section338

or

Section122,to

keep

them

at

a

high

level.

In

parallel,ongoingSection232

investigations

could

result

in

the

introductionoftariffs

on

new

products.IntheUS,theeffectivetariffratelikelyremainedaround

11-12%inOctober,stillatthehighestlevelsincethe1940s.Butthereislikelylimitedroomforfurtherupside

goingforward:Weestimateitcouldreach14%atmostby

yearend.Data

on

collected

duties

in

USDterms

are

alreadyavailable

until

October,

but

importsdataare

not

yetavailabletocalculatethe

actualtariff

rate.Judgingfrom

available

survey

data(e.g.the

imports

index

of

theISM

manufacturingsurvey)andtaking

intoaccountthetrend

in

the

past

few

months,the

effective

US

tariff

rateis

likelyto

have

only

marginally

creeped

up

in

Septemberand

October,from

the

11.2%

reported

for

August.

Incomparison,we

hadestimatedatheoreticaltariff

rate

of

17%

in

September

and

15%

in

October,with

the

gap

likelyexplained

by

continued

mitigationstrategiesfromfirms.This

gap

is

likely

to

continue

to

decline

until

the

end

of

theyearascorporateadaptative

behaviors

runtheir

course.Moreover,

a

number

of

recent

changes

in

UStrade

policyhavefurther

lowered

our

estimate

ofthetheoreticaltariffrateto

14%.

Most

importantly,the

list

of

goodsthat

areexemptfrom

US

reciprocaltariffs

has

beenexpandedfurther,

mainly

including

morefood

products.This

is

a

clearsign

of

UStariff

policysoftening

asthe

US

consumerstartsto

feel

the

effects:

US

inflation

stood

at3%

in

September(with

categoriessuchascoffeeand

beef

seeing

the

fastest

accelerationsincethe

beginningoftheyear)

as

companies

seemto

be

passing

onthe

higher

costs.We

estimatethat

inflation

likely

rosefurtherto3.2%

in

October.

InNovember,theWhite

House

issued

a

new

executive

orderthat

reducedfoodtariffsacrossthe

board.Figure4:

AI

boom,services

and

rerouting

behind

global

trade

upside

revision,

%0.30.30.1Globalgrowthupgrade

Lower

tariffsAIinvestmentsurge

Q4forecastFirmmitigationstrategiesServices4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.00.3

2.03.5

0.317

December

2025Q3forecast9Inflation(yearly%)Global20236.120244.52025f4.02026f3.52027f3.0USALatin

AmericaBrazilUKEurozoneGermanyFranceItalySpainCentralandEasternEuropePolandRussiaTürkiyeAsia-PacificChinaJapanIndiaMiddleEastSaudiArabiaAfricaSouthAfrica4.114.84.67.35.46.04.95.63.511.011.45.953.93.10.23.35.716.32.516.95.93.016.64.42.52.42.32.01.02.83.93.88.458.52.20.22.75.010.41.515.04.42.811.15.33.42.12.20.91.62.65.03.98.935.01.30.03.22.517.31.911.53.13.09.24.32.61.92.11.31.72.13.93.16.125.11.60.41.94.212.42.69.13.02.84.93.12.32.02.21.62.02.13.22.92.615.71.90.92.44.49.12.27.53.1Weexpectinflationtoremainfirmlyaroundtargetin

the

Eurozone,but

overshoots

to

persist

in

the

US,theUKandJapan.Inthe

Eu