Incrementum-递增比特币指南针-2026年第二季度 Bitcoin Compass Q2 2026

BitcoinCompass

Q22026

Ronald-PeterStöferle

MarkJ.Valek

1

2

TableofContent:

1.

NewsandSocialMedia

2.Bitcoin

3.BitcoinSpotETF

4.BitcoinOn-Chain

5

.

Bitcoinvs.Altcoins

6.BitcoinTreasuryCompanies

7

.

BitcoinComparisons

3

1.NewsandSocialMedia

“17yearsafterthewhitepaper,theBitcoinnetworkisstill

operationalandmoreresilientthanever.Bitcoinnevershuts

down.”

ScottBessent

News

•Reuters,01/13/2026(EN):USsenatorsintroducelong-awaitedbilltodefinecryptomarketrules(

link

)

•Bloomberg,03/17/2026(EN):BitcoinSurprisesasOasisofCalmWhileIranWarJoltsMarkets(

link

)

•Bloomberg,03/23/2026(EN):StrategySeeks$42BilliontoAccelerateBitcoinBuying(

link

)

•Decrypt,03/26/2026(EN):MARAStockPopson$1.1BillionBitcoinSaleasBTCMinerBuysBackConvertibleDebt(

link

)

•Decrypt,03/26/2026(EN):Coinbase,FannieMaetoEnableCrypto-BackedMortgages(

link

)

•FinancialTimes,03/27/2026(EN):TetherhiresKPMGasauditoraheadofUSexpansion(

link

)

•Decrypt,03/31/2026(EN):GoogleQuantumPaperBoostsOddsofBitcoin‘Q-Day’by2032,ResearchersWarn(

link

)

•TheBlock,03/31/2026(EN):InteractiveBrokerslaunchescryptotradinginEEA,includingBTC,ETH,SOLandXRP(

link

)

incrementum

4

SocialMedia

incrementum

5

RenéwillRendite,02/08/2026(DE)

DERKOLLAPS!WieesbeiGoldundBitcoinweitergeht/InterviewmitMarkValek

SwanBitcoin,03/05/2026(EN)

DidtheFederalReserveJustOpentheDoortoBitcoin?

WhatBitcoinDid,02/25/2026(EN)

DollarDominancevsBitcoin:WhatHappensNext|BrentJohnson

BitcoinForCorporationsundBitcoinMagazine,02/25/2026(EN)

MichaelSaylor'sStrategyWorld2026Keynote:DigitalCredit

2.Bitcoin

“Nothingstopsthistrain…Becauseit’stheopposite.Scarce,

decentralized,andmathematicallycapped…Bitcoinisthe

mirrorofthissystem–andthebestprotectionfromit.”

LynAlden

6

incrementum

7

BitcoinPerformanceinMajorCurrencies,2011–2026

Year

USD

EUR

GBP

CAD

CNY

JPY

CHF

INR

XAU

Average

2011

1,473.3%

1,526.8%

1,479.7%

1,509.0%

1,402.6%

1,391.7%

1,480.2%

1,765.8%

1,328.1%

1,484.2%

2012

186.2%

180.7%

173.9%

178.6%

183.3%

222.7%

179.5%

196.9%

167.3%

185.5%

2013

5,481.1%

5,257.9%

5,373.3%

5,874.4%

5,323.1%

6,675.3%

5,342.7%

6,172.3%

7,655.3%

5,906.2%

2014

-57.4%

-51.6%

-54.7%

-53.4%

-56.4%

-51.6%

-52.6%

-56.6%

-56.7%

-54.6%

2015

33.8%

49.1%

41.4%

59.4%

40.0%

34.5%

34.9%

40.6%

49.3%

42.6%

2016

124.9%

132.3%

168.7%

118.3%

140.6%

118.5%

128.5%

130.9%

107.3%

130.0%

2017

1,385.6%

1,202.1%

1,256.3%

1,291.2%

1,292.2%

1,332.2%

1,322.1%

1,295.6%

1,213.4%

1,287.9%

2018

-73.5%

-72.2%

-71.9%

-71.2%

-71.9%

-74.2%

-73.3%

-71.1%

-73.0%

-72.5%

2019

87.8%

92.1%

80.6%

78.9%

90.2%

86.2%

85.2%

92.7%

58.8%

83.6%

2020

305.0%

271.7%

292.9%

297.0%

279.6%

285.0%

270.4%

314.6%

223.9%

282.2%

2021

59.8%

71.6%

61.5%

58.6%

55.5%

78.1%

64.6%

62.9%

65.7%

64.3%

2022

-64.3%

-62.1%

-60.1%

-61.7%

-61.2%

-59.3%

-63.8%

-60.3%

-64.2%

-61.9%

2023

157.0%

149.3%

144.2%

151.2%

164.5%

176.5%

133.9%

158.5%

127.3%

151.4%

2024

120.4%

135.0%

124.2%

139.3%

126.7%

145.6%

137.6%

126.7%

73.3%

125.4%

2025

-6.4%

-17.5%

-13.1%

-10.7%

-10.3%

-6.7%

-18.3%

-1.7%

-43.1%

-14.2%

2026YTD

-22.2%

-21.0%

-20.8%

-21.2%

-23.3%

-21.2%

-21.6%

-19.1%

-28.2%

-22.0%

CAGR

116.2%

118.2%

118.4%

120.7%

116.8%

125.4%

114.1%

126.4%

100.7%

117.4%

Source:Glassnode,LSEG(asof03/31/2026),IncrementumAG

incrementum

8

AnnualizedPerformanceofBitcoin,inUSD,ifBoughtontheLastDayof

theMonthandHelduntil03/2026(HoldingPeriod≥1Year)*

Purchase

Date

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May.

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

2011

117.49%

111.26%

113.63%

95.78%

81.86%

76.69%

79.23%

85.68%

92.74%

99.43%

101.49%

95.85%

2012

94.56%

97.00%

97.89%

98.20%

98.27%

95.79%

91.42%

91.57%

89.26%

91.46%

90.58%

90.32%

2013

85.20%

79.07%

66.11%

61.55%

63.00%

67.27%

66.61%

63.97%

64.74%

59.69%

39.44%

44.45%

2014

43.67%

49.04%

51.76%

52.47%

48.69%

48.79%

50.33%

53.46%

56.79%

59.17%

58.15%

61.05%

2015

67.36%

65.72%

66.89%

68.03%

69.20%

67.73%

67.15%

71.24%

71.52%

67.70%

65.38%

63.95%

2016

67.17%

65.09%

66.60%

66.00%

63.82%

60.75%

62.55%

64.73%

64.37%

62.70%

62.31%

58.44%

2017

59.16%

56.14%

58.66%

55.27%

46.79%

45.71%

44.24%

36.48%

38.90%

32.55%

26.37%

20.79%

2018

26.55%

26.00%

33.15%

28.68%

32.47%

35.83%

32.94%

34.92%

36.47%

37.86%

47.57%

48.87%

2019

51.85%

50.33%

49.09%

44.93%

35.63%

30.37%

33.31%

34.93%

38.37%

36.66%

41.57%

43.43%

2020

37.94%

40.46%

48.06%

41.29%

40.18%

41.83%

37.24%

37.17%

40.01%

34.24%

26.61%

17.70%

2021

15.55%

9.41%

2.96%

3.79%

13.69%

15.37%

11.21%

8.46%

10.54%

2.69%

4.17%

9.53%

2022

14.76%

12.84%

10.48%

15.86%

22.03%

41.13%

33.45%

40.42%

43.16%

42.33%

51.45%

54.63%

2023

41.04%

41.97%

33.92%

33.52%

38.47%

34.17%

37.44%

45.21%

44.70%

32.34%

28.85%

23.38%

2024

24.45%

5.13%

-1.88%

7.03%

0.46%

5.71%

3.34%

9.64%

4.56%

-1.75%

-23.12%

-22.44%

2025-29.27%-17.73%-17.28%

Source:Glassnode,LSEG,IncrementumAG*Purchasedate=lastdayofthemonth

incrementum

9

BitcoinPerformanceTriangle(USD),in%,Q1/2020–Q1/2026

of

Q1/2020

Q2/2020

Q3/2020

Q4/2020

Q1/2021

Q2/2021

Q3/2021

Q4/2021

41.2

65.5

17.1

347.7

217.0

170.6

810.6

544.7

450.3

103.4

434.1

571.0

615.3

607.0

278.1

375.0

406.4

400.5

222.8

305.5

332.3

327.3

189.4200.0155.5338.5 104.9112.480.9210.5 74.981.354.4165.1

-35.4-33.0-42.9-2.1

369.4

318.2

556.5

994.2

232.3

196.1

364.8

674.7

183.7

152.8

296.8

561.4

855.9

885.2

1,347.1

1,173.3

576.8

597.5

924.5

801.5

477.7

495.5

774.6

669.6

113.5

120.0

223.2

184.4

1,562.3

1,670.7

1,254.5

953.4

1,076.9

1,153.7

859.0

645.8

904.7

970.2

718.7

536.7

271.3

295.5

202.5

135.3

19.349.959.857.9

4.8-6.646.6144.4

-41.3

-26.3

-21.4-22.4

-68.2

-67.1

-71.9

-51.8

-45.8

-43.8

-52.2

-17.9

-56.9

-55.3

-61.9

-34.6

-59.5

-58.1

-64.3

-38.7

-48.4-54.1-27.920.2 -12.1-21.722.9104.9 -30.0-37.7-2.163.1

-34.4-41.5-8.253.0

5.0

79.0

42.5

33.6

58.939.8

8.2

171.0138.4

115.789.8

84.5

46.8

102.378.0

37.7

15.7

97.2

57.047.3

82.694.548.8211.2231.5153.6147.8163.9101.9

132.4147.589.4

25.6

33.932.4

6.65.4

-1.2

theEnd

Q1/2022

Q2/2022

-59.1

-57.6-63.9-38.0

-33.6-40.8-7.154.8

62.244.5126.9278.1

35.239.4104.780.1 230.3240.5400.1340.0

135.1

474.5

150.5

511.9

91.6

368.1

49.0

264.0

3.7-11.751.5

Q3/2022

-14.846.2

56.539.4118.8264.7

218.6228.4382.3324.4

454.1490.2351.5251.1

Q4/2022

71.7

83.763.7157.0328.3

274.2285.6466.4398.4

550.7593.1430.2312.3

rchaseat

Q1/2023

Q2/2023

Q3/2023

Q4/2023

7.0

-4.649.7149.5

-10.939.9133.157.0161.6

66.7

118.0

124.7

230.0

190.4

103.6

109.9

208.3

171.3

128.6

135.6

246.0

204.5

279.1303.8208.9140.2254.1277.2188.6124.4297.5323.4223.9151.9

153.2169.7106.360.4

45.650.1120.493.9

Pu

Q1/2024

Q2/2024

Q3/2024

Q4/2024

-12.6

-10.0

3.1

32.251.446.9

16.433.229.2-12.0

51.961.823.8-3.773.985.241.710.2

68.779.737.56.9

14.922.4-6.4-27.2

Q1/2025

Q2/2025

Q3/2025

Q4/2025

30.5

39.1

6.5

6.4-17.3-18.5-36.6

-23.5-40.5

-22.2

Q2/2020

Q3/2020

Q4/2020

Q1/2021

Q2/2021

Q3/2021

Q4/2021

Q1/2022

Q2/2022

Q3/2022

Q4/2022

Q1/2023

Q2/2023

Q3/2023

Q4/2023

Q1/2024

Q2/2024

Q3/2024

Q4/2024

Q1/2025

Q2/2025

Q3/2025

Q4/2025

Q1/2026

SoldattheEndof

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

10

Bitcoin(MonthlyCandlestickChart,log),inUSD,01/2015–03/2026

100

201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

100,000

10,000

1,000

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

11

Bitcoin(WeeklyCandlestickChart),inUSD,03/2024–03/2026

130,000

110,000

90,000

70,000

50,000

30,000

10,000

03/202406/202409/202412/202403/202506/202509/202512/2025

incrementum

12

CryptoFear&GreedIndex,02/2018–03/2026

02/201802/201902/202002/202102/202202/202302/202402/202502/2026

CryptoFear&GreedIndex

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

CurrentValue:11

Source:

alternative.me

,IncrementumAG

BitcoinDrawdownsinUSDfromAll-TimeHigh,01/2011–03/2026

incrementum

13

2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

BitcoinDrawdownsHalvings

-76.9%

-83.1%

ATH

0%

-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%-80%

-90%-100%

-85.1%

-93.1%

Source:

,LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

14

BitcoininVariousDevelopedMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh,

03/31/2026

0%

-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%-80%

-90%-100%

-41.86%

KRW

-42.53%

JPY

-44.49%

GBP

-44.82%

EUR

-45.27%

CHF

-45.55%

USD

-45.66%

CAD

-45.80%

SGD

-47.32%

NOK

-47.78%

AUD

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

15

BitcoininVariousEmergingMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh,

03/31/2026

-3.99%

-42.63%-41.94%

-47.58%-47.41%-47.36%-47.24%-46.77%-46.39%

CLPBRLARSCNYMXNZARINRTRYVES

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-50.19%

-60%

-70%

-80%

-90%

-100%

RUB

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

RollingBitcoinVolatility(30days),03/2022–03/2026

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

03/202209/202203/202309/202303/202409/202403/202509/202503/2026

BitcoinVolatility

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

16

incrementum

17

Bitcoin(log),inUSD,01/2011–03/2026

Profitablevs.UnprofitableEntryPoints

1,000,000.0

100,000.0

10,000.0

1,000.0

100.0

10.0

1.0

0.1

2011201220132014201520162017

Profitable

ProfitableDays180D1Y2Y4YSince2011

Profitable12.8%6.3%28.2%63.1%90.3%

Unprofitable87.2%93.7%71.8%36.9%9.7%

201820192020202120222023202420252026

Unprofitable

Source:

,LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

18

BitcoinHalvingEpochs(log),inUSD,07/2010–03/2026

5%658%

1,223%

Open:USD64,978

23,900%

Open:USD0.05

5,146%

Open:USD8,574

High:USD126,223

Low:USD49,445

Close:USD68,196

Close:USD12

High:USD32

Low:USD0.01

High:USD73,794

Low:USD8,535Close:USD64,990

Open:USD648

High:USD19,666

Low:USD465

Close:USD8,572

Open:USD12

High:USD1,242

Low:USD12Close:USD648

07/17/2010–11/28/2012

11/29/2012–07/09/2016

07/10/2016–05/11/2020

05/12/2020–04/20/2024

04/21/2024–

03/31/2026

1,000,000.00

100,000.00

10,000.00

1,000.00

100.00

10.00

1.00

0.10

0.01

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

19

BitcoinPriceTrajectoryAfterPastHalvings(Indexedto2024Halving

PriceofUSD64,773onApril20th,log),11/2012–03/2026

6,400,000

3,200,000

1,600,000

800,000

400,000

200,000

100,000

50,000

04/202410/202404/202510/202504/202610/202604/202710/2027

2012201620202024Average

Source:

,LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

20

1,000,000.0

100,000.0

10,000.0

1,000.0

100.0

10.0 1.0 0.1

20112015

20192023

2012

2016

2020

2024

InfoBox:

•ThisgraphillustratestheevolutionoftheBitcoinprice,whichis

exponentialduetotheshortageofsupplythatoccurseveryfouryearsafterahalving.

•ThepriceofBitcoinhasnotyet

recordedanegativeperformanceintherolling4-yearcomparison,whichhasledtoanever-increasingspiral.

2014

2018

2022

2026

Halving#4:

04/20/2024

Halving#3:

05/11/2020

Halving#2:

07/09/2016

Halving#1:

11/28/2012

20132017

20212025

Bitcoin,inUSD,01/2011–03/2026

Halving#1:

Start:11/28/2012,12.35

High:12/04/2013,1,151.17

Low:11/28/2012,12.35

Close:07/08/2016,662.97

Halving#2:

Start:07/09/2016,652.95

High:12/18/2017,18,690.00

Low:08/02/2016,540.00

Close:05/10/2020,8,668.45

Halving#3:

Start:05/11/2020,8,633.99

High:11/09/2021,73,157.00

Low:05/11/2020,8,633.99

Close:04/19/2024,64,045.70

Halving#4:

Start:04/20/2024,64,773.12

High:10/06/2025,126,223.18

Low:08/05/2024,49,445.08

Close:03/31/2026,68,195.55

2011–20142015–20182019–20222023–2026

Source:@therationalroot,

,LSEG,IncrementumAG

Source:Glassnode,IncrementumAG

incrementum

21

HalvingEffects

Halving

ReductionofNewSupplyperBlock

TotalReductionover

480Days(mn)

OutstandingBitcoins

(mn)

ReductioninNew

SupplyasPercentage

ofOutstanding

ReductioninNew

Supplyas%of

PreviousHalving

2012

25BTC

1.7

10.5

16.5%

2016

12.5BTC

0.9

15.8

5.5%

33.0%

2020

6.25BTC

0.4

18.4

2.4%

43.0%

2024

3.125BTC

0.2

19.7

1.1%

47.0%

incrementum

22

Bitcoin(log,lhs),inUSD,andM2(US,EU,JP,CN,GB,CH)(3month

lead,rhs),inUSDtrn,01/2015–05/2026

1,000,000

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

201520172019202120232025

BitcoinM2(US,EU,JP,CN,GB,CH)

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

GoogleTrends:Bitcoin,01/2012–03/2026

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

GoogleTrends:Bitcoin

Source:Google,IncrementumAG

incrementum

23

DistributionofBitcoinHoldings,asa%ofTotalSupply,12/03/2026

incrementum

24

7.1%

7.6%

62.2%

8.6%

OtherLostCoins*CompaniesFunds/ETFsSatoshiLefttobeminedGovernmentsDeFi/SmartContracts

2.5%1.8%

5.3%

5.4%

Source:

,Chainalysis,Fortune,IncrementumAG

BitcoinHoldingsofGovernments,inBitcoin,03/31/2026

incrementum

25

198,021

190,000

61,245

46,351

7,609

UKUkraineElSalvador

Official(Strategic)Reserve

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

3,544803

KazakhstanNorthKorea

UnofficialReserve

240

Venezuela

4,973

Bhutan

90

Finland

6,420

UAE

China

USA

Source:

,IncrementumAG

3.SpotBitcoinETFs

“BitcoinETFsarepoisedforsignificantexpansion,withthepotentialtotripletheassetbaseofgoldETFsinthenextthreetofiveyears…Goldtookoveradecadetogetthere.

BitcoinETFshavedoneitinmonths.”

EricBalchunas

26

SpotBitcoinETFOverview,03/31/2026

..

Issuer

Ticker

MarketShare

Holdings(₿)

Holdings(USDbn)

Fee

BlackRock

IBIT

60.8%

782,293

51.9

0.25%

Fidelity

FBTC

14.6%

187,905

12.5

0.25%

Grayscale

GBTC

12.0%

154,710

10.3

1.50%

GrayscaleMini

BTC

4.0%

51,673

3.4

0.15%

Bitwise

BITB

2.9%

37,574

2.5

0.20%

21Shares

ARKB

2.7%

35,230

2.3

0.21%

VanEck

HODL

1.3%

17,005

1.1

0.25%

FranklinTempleton

EZBC

0.5%

6,303

0.4

0.19%

Valkyrie

BRRR

0.5%

6,301

0.4

0.25%

Invesco

BTCO

0.5%

6,108

0.4

0.25%

WisdomTree

BTCW

02%

2,163

0.1

030%

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

27

incrementum

28

WeeklySpotBitcoinETFFlows,inBitcoin,01/2024–03/2026

125,000

100,000

75,000

50,000

25,000

0

-25,000

-50,000

-75,000

-100,000

-125,000

01/202404/202407/202410/202401/202504/202507/202510/202501/2026

GBTCIBITFBTCARKBBITBBTCBTCOHODLBRRREZBCBTCW

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

SpotBitcoinETFHoldings,inBitcoin,01/2024–03/2026

incrementum

29

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

01/202404/202407/202410/202401/202504/202507/202510/202501/2026

GBTCIBITFBTCARKBBITBBTCBTCOHODLBRRREZBCBTCW

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

incrementum

30

SpotBitcoinETFHoldings,asa%ofBitcoinSupply,01/2024–03/2026

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

01/202404/202407/202410/202401/202504/202507/202510/202501/2026

AvailableBitcoinSupplyTotalBitcoinSupply

incrementum

31

CumulativeBitcoinSpotETFFlows(lhs),inUSDbn,andBitcoinPrice

(rhs),inUSD,01/2024–03/2026

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

01/202404/202407/202410/202401/202504/202507/202510/202501/2026

CumulativeFlowsBitcoinPrice

130,000

120,000

110,000

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG

4.BitcoinOn-Chain

“Youpersonallyhaveagency.Runanode.Spendinit.You

don’thavetowaitforanyoneoraskforpermission.Youcan

justgo.”

JeffBooth

32

AddressesHolding>XBitcoin,2011–2026

..

14,000,000

12,000,000

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

0

20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

>001>01>1

Source:

,IncrementumAG

incrementum