银行业2026年2月金融数据点评：M1超预期非银存款少增

性投放将有所收紧的信号，值得关注。中期来看，根据政府工作报告测算，预计2026年政府债规模预算约13.89万亿元，同比略多增0.21宏观视角下“资产荒”现象可能将回归，债券利率有向下调整的空间。对股市流动性而言等宏观流动性指标仍有下行压力，开年资本市场情绪的维持2徽商银行进入港股通》中的选股思路。风险提示：资本市场波动加大；资金活化，银行资负管理难度加大；经济恢复不及预期，资产质量恶化等。表1：社融、存贷款、货币同比增速同比增速2026/22026/12025/122025/112025/102025/92025/82025/72025/62025/5社融8.2%8.2%8.3%8.5%8.5%8.7%8.8%9.0%8.9%8.7%扣政府债6.1%5.9%6.1%6.0%5.9%5.9%5.9%6.0%6.1%6.0%各项贷款6.0%6.1%6.4%6.4%6.5%6.6%6.8%6.9%7.1%7.1%各项存款8.7%9.9%8.7%7.7%8.0%8.0%8.6%8.7%8.3%8.1%非财政存款8.8%9.4%8.7%7.7%8.0%8.0%8.4%8.4%8.0%7.8%M29.0%9.0%8.5%8.0%8.2%8.4%8.8%8.8%8.3%7.9%新M15.9%4.9%3.8%4.9%6.2%7.2%6.0%5.6%4.6%2.3%M1-M2-3.1%-4.1%-4.7%-3.1%-2.0%-1.2%-2.8%-3.2%-3.7%-5.6%老M18.0%2.0%3.8%5.4%6.2%5.8%4.9%3.1%0.7%M014.1%2.7%10.2%10.6%10.6%11.5%11.7%11.8%12.0%12.1%单位活期9.5%0.1%2.2%4.1%5.0%4.4%3.3%1.2%-1.8%，国联民生证券研究所图1：新老口径M1增速 新M1 老M130.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%2011-032011-082011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-092024-022024-072024-122025-052025-10-5.0%-10.0%，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债社融口径贷款人民币贷款人民币贷款+政府债人民币贷款+政府债-财政存款M2M0新M1单位&居民活期20208,7376,9137,2029,05710,88110,6737,764-5,062-3,2801,782202117,24316,22613,41313,60014,61723,09622,9832,299-22,951-25,251202212,1709,4489,08412,30015,0229,02010,466-8,961-18,383-9,422202331,61023,47218,18418,10026,23821,68017,177-6,999-18,093-11,094202414,9598,9489,77314,50020,51124,30919,323-389-26,982-26,594202522,3315,3926,52810,10027,03914,46319,926-9,498-30,087-20,590202623,8009,7648,5009,00023,03626,53620,3405,261-20,381-25,642同比多增1,4694,3721,972-1,100-4,00312,07341414,7599,707-5,052，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融人民币贷款年份社会融资规模社融人民币贷款新增外币贷款新增委托贷款新增信托贷款新增未贴现银行承兑汇票企业债券融资票融资政府债券其他20208,7377,202252-356-540-3,9613,8944491,824-27202117,24313,413464-100-9366391,3566931,017697202212,1709,084480-74-751-4,2283,6105852,722742202331,61018,184310-7766-693,6625718,138825202414,9599,773-9-172571-3,6861,4231146,011934202522,3316,528-281-228-330-2,9871,7027616,939912202623,8008,500-35-181309-1,7551,52145414,036951同比多增1,4691,972246476391,232-181378-2,90339，国联民生证券研究所年份金融机构:新增人民币贷款社融人民币贷款(投向实体)年份金融机构:新增人民币贷款社融人民币贷款(投向实体)社融人民币贷款(扣票据）对公:中长期对公:短期对公:票据融资居民户:中长期居民户:短期非银行业金融机构贷款其他20209,0577,2026,5684,1576,549634371-4,5041,78664202113,60013,41315,26811,0002,497-1,8554,113-2,691180356202212,3009,0846,0325,0524,1113,052-459-2,9111,7901,665202318,10018,18419,17311,1005,785-9898631,218173-50202414,5009,77312,54012,9005,300-2,767-1,038-4,8684,045928202510,1006,5284,8355,4003,3001,693-1,150-2,7412,84475420269,0008,5008,8508,9006,000-350-1,815-4,693-1051,063同比多增-1,1001,9724,0153,5002,700-2,043-665-1,952-2,949309，国联民生证券研究所年份新增人民币存款年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款新增居民存款新增企业存款财政存款非银金融机构存款其他单位存款机关团体存款境外存款其他202010,2001,640-1,2002,8402084,9243,4283,42449-45202111,5008,40032,600-24,200-8,47916,100-4,521-4,610107-18202225,400-1,534-2,9231,3896,00213,9007,0326,77023230202328,10020,8267,92612,9004,558-5,1637,8797,952-58-1420249,6002,10032,000-29,900-3,79811,574-276-511253-18202544,200-2,8406,100-8,94012,57628,3006,1645,558638-32202611,7004,55531,100-26,545-3,50013,900-3,255同比多增-32,5007,39525,000-17,605-16,076-14,400-9,419，国联民生证券研究所年份居民贷款居民存款年份居民贷款居民存款居民部门净融资对公社融融资对公存款对公部门净融资政府债券财政存款政府部门净融资非银贷款款2020-4,133-1,200-2,93315,0396,2688,7711,8242081,616-3,13820211,42232,600-31,17813,119-28,72141,8401,017-8,4799,496-15,9202022-3,370-2,923-44716,0658,4217,6442,7226,002-3,280-12,11020232,0817,926-5,84520,42820,779-3518,1384,5583,5805,3362024-5,90632,000-37,90617,360-30,17647,5366,011-3,7989,809-7,5292025-3,8916,100-9,99111,332-2,77614,10816,93912,5764,363-25,4562026-6,50831,100-37,60816,618-29,80046,41814,036-3,50017,536-14,005同比多增-2,61725,000-27,6175,286-27,02432,310-2,903-16,07613,17311,451，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债年份社会融资规模社融扣政府债社融口径贷款人民币贷款人民币贷款+政府债人民币贷款+政府债-财政存款M2M0新M1单位&居民活期202059,27249,83542,12642,45751,89447,68444,34210,998-13,344-24,342202169,12765,67351,59549,40052,85449,63349,2347,610-24,028-31,638202273,92965,18151,07252,10060,84848,99758,5896,403-24,310-30,713202391,56679,28867,49867,10079,37867,99290,9282,897-18,082-20,979202479,69370,73558,17463,70072,65867,85272,8607,565-6,723-14,288202592,87769,00558,72261,40085,27269,37269,8514,562-18,699-23,261202696,00872,20857,51656,10079,90067,90089,25210,1394,154-5,985同比多增3,1313,203-1,206-5,300-5,372-1,47219,4015,57622,85217,276，国联民生证券研究所年份社会融资规模社融口径人民币贷款年份社会融资规模社融口径人民币贷款新增外币贷款新增委托贷款新增信托贷款新增未贴现银行承兑汇票企业债券融资非金融企业境内股票融资政府债券其他202059,27242,126765-382-108-2,5587,8611,0589,4371,073202169,12751,5951,562-9-1,7785,5415,2731,6843,4541,805202273,92951,0721,511354-1,4315059,4482,0248,7481,698202391,56667,49817950742,8945,3001,53512,2781,371202479,69358,174980-5311,3031,9505,7435368,9582,580202592,87758,722-6732212931,6676,15654923,8722,070202696,00857,516433-3733054,5386,55474523,8002,490同比多增3,131-1,2061,106-594122,871398196-72420，国联民生证券研究所表9：历年前2月累计新增贷款结构（单位:亿元）年份新增人民币贷款社融口径人民币贷款(投向实体)对公:中长期对公:短期对公:票据融资居民户:中长期居民户:短期非银行业金融机构贷款其他202042,45742,12637,89620,75714,2484,2307,862-5,653219794202149,40051,59554,85531,4008,252-3,26013,561587-1,812672202252,10051,07246,23226,05214,2114,8406,965-1,9053731,564202367,10067,49872,61446,10020,885-5,1163,0941,559-412990202463,70058,17470,67446,00019,900-12,5005,234-1,3404,2942,112202561,40058,72262,17840,00020,700-3,4563,785-3,2388362,773202656,10057,51666,60540,70026,500-9,0891,654-3,596-1,9871,918同比多增-5,300-1,2064,4277005,800-5,633-2,131-358-2,823-855，国联民生证券研究所年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款年份新增人民币存款居民+企业存款新增居民存款新增企业存款财政存款非银金融机构存款其他企业存款（主要机关团体存款）机关团体存款境外存款其他202039,00027,94041,200-13,2604,21010,625-3,775-3,604324-495202147,20032,68447,400-14,7163,22114,980-3,685-3,433426-678202263,70038,56651,177-12,61111,85112,0641,2191,130-81170202396,80075,67169,9265,74511,3864,9374,8065,062534-790202464,40038,80057,300-18,5004,80617,1003,6942,8341,339-479202587,40050,30061,300-11,00015,90017,2004,0002,1062,462-569202692,60051,95552,400-44512,00028,400245同比多增5,2001,655-8,90010,555-3,90011,200-3,755，国联民生证券研究所表11：历年前2月累计净金融债务增加（单位:亿元）年份居民贷款居民存款居民部门净融资对公社融融资对公存款对公部门净融资政府债券财政存款政府部门净融资非银贷款-非银存款20202,20941,200-38,99148,429-17,03565,4649,4374,2105,227-10,406202114,14847,400-33,25243,124-18,40161,5253,4543,221233-16,79220225,06051,177-46,11757,009-11,39268,4018,74811,851-3,103-11,69120234,65369,926-65,27369,39410,55158,84312,27811,386892-5,34920243,89457,300-53,40661,431-14,80676,2378,9584,8064,152-12,806202554761,300-60,75363,790-7,00070,79023,87215,9007,972-16,3642026-1,94252,400-54,34265,775-20065,97523,80012,00011,800-30,387同比多增-2,489-8,9006,4111,9856,800-4,815-72-3,9003,828-14,023，国联民生证券研究所图2：2026年2社融增量同比多增（亿元） 3,0000

1,469

1,972

24647

639

1,232

-181

37839-2,000-3,000

-2,903-4,000，国联民生证券研究所图3：2026年2信贷增量同比多增（亿元）5,0000

4,015

3,500

2,7001,9723092,7001,972309-1,100-665-2,043 -1,952 ，国联民生证券研究所图4：2026年2月存款增量同比多增（亿元）30,000新增人民币存款 居民+企业存款 新增居民存款 新增企业存款财政存款 非银金融机构存款新增人民币存款 居民+企业存款 新增居民存款 新增企业存款财政存款 非银金融机