高盛-中国：中国经济三大要点-China：Three things in China-20260419

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ntsi:c/s/wse.vaaruhelist

19April2026|10:49PMHKT

China:ThreethingsinChina

ThreequickhighlightsfromChina:

nQ1GDPbeat:China’srealGDPgrew5.0%yoyinQ1,outpacingtheconsensusforecastof4.8%.Industrialproductionrose5.7%inMarch,exceeding

expectationsof5.3%.However,bothretailsalesandfixedassetinvestmentfellshort.InQ1,exportvalueinUSDtermssurged14.7%yoy,whileretailsales

increased2.4%,andfixedassetinvestmentgrewjust1.7%.ThisindicatesthatthestrongGDPgrowthwasprimarilydrivenbyexportsratherthandomesticdemand.

HuiShan

+

852-2978-6634|hui.shan@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

Q1GDPandMarchactivitydataunderscorestillweakdomesticdemand

PercentyoyPercentyoy

66

ChinaQ1GDPand

5Marchactivitydata5

4BloombergConsensusActual4

33

22

11

00

GDPIPRetailsalesFAI(ytd)

Source:Bloomberg,NBS

nMarchexportmissnottooconcerning:ExportvaluegrowthinUSDterms

droppedsharplyfrom21.8%yoyinJanuary-Februaryto2.5%yoyinMarch,

missingmarketexpectations.However,wearenotoverlyconcernedaboutthisslowdown.OurestimatesindicatethatthelaterLunarNewYearthisyearboostedJanuary-Februaryexportgrowthbyabout10ppbutreducedMarchexport

growthby8pp.Weestimatethatslowergrowthexpectedforlow-income

oil-importingcountriesafterthebreakoutoftheIranwarmaydragChina’stotalexportvolumedownby2ppthisyear.Overall,riskstoour5%exportvolume

growthforecastfor2026remainskewedtotheupside.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachs

.

China

Chineseexportscontinuedtogrowdespitemonthlyvolatility

ChineseexportstotheUS/EU/Japan/ASEAN/LatAm/Africawerearound14.7%/14.4%/4.3%/16.4%/7.7%/5.0%oftotalexports.Overalltheyaccountedfor63%ofChineseexports.

Source:ChinaCustoms,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

nIncreasedinterbankliquidity:China’sinterbankliquidityhasbeenmorethanampleinrecentweeks.7-dayreporateshavefallenbelowthePBOC’spolicyrateof1.4%.Webelieveincreasedexporterrepatriationisthemaindriveroftheincreased

liquidity.Additionally,theMiddleEastconfiictandvolatileglobalmarketshave

promptedtheChinesecentralbanktomaintainabundantliquidityforrisk

management.Inthenearterm,astheexporterconversionrateremainshighanduncertaintyovertheMiddleEastconfiictpersists,weexpectthePBOCtocontinueallowingampleinterbankliquiditywhichsupportsChineseriskassets.

7-dayreporateshavefallenbelowthepolicyrateinrecentweeks

Source:Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

RecentGSChinamacroresearch

Power,exports,CIOtourtakeaways,andpropertymarket:

19April20262

GoldmanSachs

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China

19April20263

ChinaDataInsights:PowerConsumptionaBetterCyclicalSignalThanPowerGeneration,17April2026

AsiainFocus:ChinaExportsUnderEnergyShock:DemandDrag,GreenUpside,FadingDisinfiation,14April2026

China:MacroCIOTourTakeaways,13April2026

AsiainFocus:LessonsofHongKong’sPropertyMarketStabilizationforMainlandTier-1-Cities,9April2026

Datacommentsandtrackers:

ChinaEconomicActivityandPolicyTracker:April17,17April2026

China:70-cityaverageprimarypropertypricedeclinenarrowedinMarch,16April2026

China:Q1GDPandMarchindustrialproductionaboveexpectations,whileretailsalesmissed,16April2026

China:SAFEdatasuggestsmallFXoutfiowsinMarch,15April2026

China:Later-than-usualLunarNewYearweighedonMarchexportgrowth,14April2026

China:MoneyandcreditdatasurprisedtothedownsideinMarch,13April2026

China:Year-over-yearPPIinfiationturnedpositiveinMarchforthefirsttimesincelate2022,10April2026

Teampresentationmaterialsandwebinarreplays:

Macro&Strategy|GlobalMacro,Property,MarketViews(inMandarin),13April2026GSChinaEconomicOutlook:March2026[Presentation],26March2026

TheChinaEconomicsTeam

AndrewTilton

+852-2978-1802

andrew.tilton@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

XinquanChen

+852-2978-2418

xinquan.chen@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

HuiShan

+852-2978-6634

hui.shan@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

ChelseaSong

+852-2978-0106

chelsea.song@

YutingYang

+852-2978-7283

yuting.y.yang@

LishengWang

+852-3966-4004

lisheng.wang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GoldmanSachs

.

China

19April20264

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

I,HuiShan,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyrefiectmypersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfiuencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.ContributingAuthors:HuiShanGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C..

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedintheContributingAuthorsdisclosureofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublico仟eringsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconfiictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,

professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficer

ordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubject

company,publicappearancesandtradinginsecuritiescoveredbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedby

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advice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.Acopyofcertain

GoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicy

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/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:Disclosureinformation

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primarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,o仟eringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof

securitiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunder

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SachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:Furtherinformationonthe

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onthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,Research

Analyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,10thFloor,Ascent-Worli,SudamKaluAhireMarg,Worli,Mumbai-400025,India,Corporate

IdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreof

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/worldwide/india/documents/Grievance-Redressal-and-Escalation-Matrix.pdf

,andacopyoftheannualaudit

compliancereportcanbefoundatthislink:

/content/site/india-annual-compliance-report.html.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:

Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,

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fromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaffiliatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asdefinedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor

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AustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html

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ResearchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasdefinedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoa

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research,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsarethe

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GoldmanSachs

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China

19April20265

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EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)

(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationis

implementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestment

recommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsofconfiictsofinterestisavailableat

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fi

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