瑞银-印尼金属行业：镍板块年初至今硫磺供应明显偏紧-Indonesian Metals Sector Nickel：Tight sulphur supply evident YTD-20260420

a§ YTDsulphurinflowsdownYoY(MarchupMoM)withObiIslanda§2Apr-23Aug-23Apr-23Aug-23Mar-24Apr-24Aug-24Mar-25Apr-25Mar-262502000Apr-23Aug-23Mar-24Apr-23Aug-23Mar-24Apr-24Aug-24Mar-25Apr-25Mar-2645454050Apr-23Aug-23Mar-24Apr-23Aug-23Mar-24Apr-24Aug-24Mar-25Apr-25Mar-26400Mar-24Apr-24May-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Aug-24Oct-24Mar-25Apr-25May-25Aug-25Oct-25Mar-26Dieselinflowfromlocalports(kt)200080400Apr-25Apr-26Apr-23Aug-23Mar-24Apr-24Aug-24Mar-25Apr-25Apr-23Aug-23Mar-24Apr-24Aug-24Mar-25Apr-25Mar-264.0AugAug-25400婚§3Volume(ktNi)Volume(ktNi)MonthlyMar-25Apr-25May-25Aug-25Oct-25Nov-25Mar-26Monthlychange(Mar-26)15-Apr-26MTD15-Mar-26%MoM15-Apr-26YTD15-Apr-25%YoY%MoM%YoY15-Apr-25%YoYRefinednickel31.831.620.430.429.834.828.621.136.542.031.924.8-22%3%8.321%-39%84.229%Kolonodale-42%-63%6.264%682%36.248.4-25%Weda65.363.438.673.762.471.655.562.562.381.960.361.778.953.641.467.463%-9%32.331.62%29.79%207.2-6%Molawe23.924.022.626.126.923.127.325.420.226.926.323.126.627.023.123.31%-11%-17%8%84.786.4-2%Laiwui22.524.524.732.226.727.030.532.524.034.232.724.438.557%20%6%-30%93.416%Samarinda-2.40.8-100%4%-6.1-79%-0.80.60.8-100%Jeneponto0.8--100%--3.0-100%Pomalaa---Malili-26%4%-2.9-100%2.2-100%20.1-31%Totalrefinednickel178.3168.9123.8179.5154.4167.1151.7173.6161.9201.1171.9150.2200.0165.5139.0165.619%-8%78.877.42%78.21%548.9549.6-0%89.298.593.990.620%-11%54.856.3-3%50.88%354.8378.1-6%TotalNiMatte23.220.720.127.834.429.527.286%43%8.765%-23%85.759.943%37.034.033.922.034.328.330.136.340.329.526.031.631.931.725.5-19%-25%7.7-34%7.53%96.999.2-2%0.4--0.4-66%o/w:NPI/FeNi3.996%-15%0.6125%31%-1%7.19.8-20%-11%6.7-24%6.2-19%38.844.2-12%Kolonodale-42%-63%6.264%682%36.248.4-25%Weda41.939.725.945.944.052.041.844.536.854.440.734.650.330.828.643.452%-5%-12%-4%-8%Molawe23.924.022.626.126.923.127.325.420.226.926.323.126.627.023.123.31%-11%-17%8%84.786.4-2%Laiwui20.521.626.166%27%9.07.717%-41%72.958.325%Samarinda-2.40.8-100%4%-6.1-79%-0.80.60.8-100%Jeneponto0.8--100%--3.0-100%Pomalaa---TotalNPI/FeNi119.6110.789.2122.0115.6112.5107.8121.898.5135.8119.393.9130.3100.490.6109.020%-11%54.856.3-3%50.88%354.8378.1-6%Ofrefinednickelo/w:NiMatte67%66%72%68%75%67%71%70%61%68%69%62%65%61%65%66%7%11%70%73%-3%65%5%65%69%-4%Malili-26%4%-2.9-100%2.2-100%20.1-31%Weda7.9166%4%104%9.228%46.739.817%7.3252%2.6-7.3-65%25.3-TotalNiMatte17.719.612.419.113.516.312.218.323.220.720.127.834.429.514.627.286%43%14.48.765%18.8-23%85.759.943%Ofrefinednickelo/w:NiMHP10%12%10%11%9%10%8%11%14%10%12%19%17%18%11%16%-2%-5%18%11%7%24%-6%16%11%5%Weda8.07.49.327%-32%3.56.5-45%2.920%28.236.6-23%4.94.320.77.7-56%-41%20%2.8-31%44.238.714%Laiwui8.67.08.525%19%2.33.7-38%27%24.524.02%TotalNiMHP37.034.019.533.922.034.328.330.136.340.329.526.031.631.931.725.5-19%-25%7.711.8-34%7.53%96.999.2-2%Ofrefinednickelo/w:NiMSP21%20%16%19%14%21%19%17%22%20%17%17%16%19%23%15%-4%-4%10%15%-5%10%0%18%18%-0%0.4--0.4-66%TotalNiMSP0.4--0.4-66%Ofrefinednickelo/w:NiSulfate1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%--%1%0%1%0%1%0%0%-0%Laiwui3.996%-15%0.6125%31%-1%TotalNiSulfate3.996%-15%0.6125%31%11.011.2-1%Ofrefinednickel2%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%2%0%-2%2%1%1%1%0%2%2%-0%婚§4MonthlyMonthlyMonthlyMonthlychange(Mar-26)MTDYTDDec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26%MoM%YoY15-Apr-2615-Apr-25%YoY15-Mar-26%MoM15-Apr-2615-Apr-25%YoYSulfurelementalSulfurelementalinflow(kt)57.9-21% 67.0-39%57.9-21% 67.0-39% 361%-15%72%-100%52.4-13%-22%261.7 521.4268.0 45.5-4%10%-9%-100%398.8-34%11%-21%34%Kolonodale--------52.140.755.0469.5338.552.140.755.0469.5338.57.5-Laiwui-105.0143.590.093.5106.089.136.798.6165.6108.790.580.073.747.681.7Jeneponto---7.5--Malili22.0-----24.2-----36.8---32%-1%141.2104.535%124.913%1,079.61,214.3-11%Total32%-1%141.2104.535%124.913%1,079.61,214.3-11%Sulfuricacidinflow(kt)45.18.8100%Laiwui91.4--28.5-2%47.9-TotalSulfuricacidinflow45.118.88.8--19.016.3-19.6110.3--28.519.4-19.02%47.918.8155%婚§5婚§6 12-MonthRatingDefinition254%24%40%21%6%21%婚§7 12-monthratingAmmanMineralInternasional28,20MerdekaBatteryMaterials20PricePriceTarget(Rp)StockPrice(Rp)160012008004000Buy NeutralNoRating-婚§8PricePriceTarget(Rp)StockPrice(Rp)2000160012008004000BuyNoRating-婚§9 PricePriceTarget(Rp)StockPrice(Rp)600048003600240012000BuyNeutral 婚§10PriceTarget(Rp)StockPrice(Rp)1000080006000400020000BuyNeutral 婚§11PricePriceTarget(Rp)StockPrice(Rp)1600012000800040000Buy NeutralNoRating-婚§12 relevanttoCreditSuisseWea婚§13 a§ a§ a§ a§