杰富瑞-美国清洁能源：从LNG到OMG-全球能源“替代方案”能否力挽狂澜？-From LNG to OMG-Will Global Energy'Alternatives'Save the Day-20260320

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FromLNGtoOMG—WillGlobalEnergylAlternativeslSavetheDay?

ThursdaylsstriketocriticalLNGenergyinfrastructureinQatarsentEUmarketslowergivenperceivedinflationrisks.TherealquestioniswhetherwewillseereactionaryfiscalstimulusintheEU/APACtosupportincrementalrenewablebuildsasadestabilizedenergysupply-chainheightensdesireforchange.WeviewtheUSassomewhatisolatedfromelevatedglobaloil/LNGpricesbutcautionthatcheaperUSlassociatedlgasprospectsmayimpedenewwind/solar.

WeseethebackdropassimilartothestartoftheUkrainewarinEuropein2022:willhigherenergypricesspurareinvigoratedcycleofdemand?WecautiononreadingtoofarintothisanalogyasEuropeangovernmentscouldbehesitanttoengageinfiscalstimulustoenablereinvigoratedrenewableadoption.SustainedLNGdisruptionraisestheprobabilitythatbothEU&APACfurtheracceleratecleanenergytransition.Elevatedenergypriceswillenableenergytransition&innovationcycles.DisruptionsfromtheStraitofHormuzandfragilityofenergyinfrastructureserveasaglobalreminderofthemeritsofenergysecurity.ExpectSolar&Nucleartobewellbidonthisthesisincomingweeks.

One-TwoPunchtoEuropeanPowerCosts.EuropeanbondandequitymarketssoldoffThursdayfollowingretaliatoryattacksonQatar丿sRasLaffancomplex丿theworld丿slargestliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)facilityandacriticalsourceofglobalsupply.Damagetothesitecouldtakemultipleyearstorepairandresultinanestimated~$20Bnoflostannualrevenue丿accordingtoQatarEnergy丿triggeringanimmediateshockacrossEuropeanandAsianenergymarketsreliantonMiddleEast(ME)supply.EUTTFnaturalgashasnearlydoubledto€60EUR/MWhsincetheconflictstarted.

WhatHappensNow.Thursday丿sreactionreflectsconcernoverstructurallyhigherEuropeanpowercostsamidincreasedrelianceonMiddleEasternenergyfollowingtheUkraine/Russiaconflict.WithcoreLNGinfrastructureimpairedandregionaloiltransportdisrupted丿focusshiftstowhereEuropecanreliablysourceenergytomitigateinflationarypressurethatmaypersistforyears.Whiletheshockhasimplicationsforglobalinflationandrates丿webelievereducedLNGavailabilitycouldincrementallyaccelerateEurope丿senergytransition丿supportingdemandforselectUScleanenergycompanieswithinternationalexposure.

SeeOpportunityinUSClean:ENPH/SEDGclearly,butalsoNXT/SHLS/FLNC.Inlightofthemulti-yearenergychallengesimpliedbytheescalation丿weseeaconstructivedemandtailwindforUScleanenergypeersbeyond2026.Nearterm丿residentialsolarisbestpositionedasEuropeanhouseholdscandeployrooftopsolarandstoragewithinmonthstooffsetrisingutilitycosts.WeareincrementallyconstructiveonENPHandSEDGgiventheirEuropeanexposure丿

underpinning

ourrecentSEDGupgrade

.Longerterm丿wearealsopositiveonNXT/SHLSasEUandAsialeansonutility-scalesolartoachieveenergyindependenceandavoidanaffordabilitycrisis.Watchfordatapointsaroundaccelerationinprocurementcycletocreateademandpullforward.WeexpectstoragetobenefitaswellandflagFLNC丿themostinternationally-exposedutility-scalenameat~42%of丿25revenue丿thoughwatchforpotentialsupply-chainriskifEVdemandacceleratesinparallel.

WatchingInterestRates.Aprolongeddisruptioncouldpressureinterestrates丿particularlyifenergy-driveninflationmaterializes.Risingratesareaclearcounterweighttoourcleanenergy

$/bbl

Exhibit1-CrudeOilFuturesApproaching10YearHigh

BrentCrudeOilFutures

$140

$0

Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26

BrentCrudeOilFuturesPromptMonth($/bbl)Average--mStdev.+1---Stdev.-1

Source:JEFResearch丿S&PCapIQ

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thesis,particularlyforcapital-intensivesolarandstorage.Thatsaid,incrementaldemandandvolumegrowthdrivenbyhigherEuropeanpowercostscouldpartiallyoffsetthisheadwind.

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PMSummary

Thursday’sstrikeoncriticalenergyinfrastructureinQatar,alongsiderisingtensionsattheStraitofHormuz,underscoresrenewedglobalenergysecurityrisk.Europe—andtoalesserextentAsia—appearsmostexposedneartermgivengrowingrelianceonLNGimportsfromRasLaffan,theworld’slargestLNGfacility,astheUkraine/Russiawarcontinuestoconstrainpipelinesupply.WithrepairspotentiallyspanningthreetofiveyearsperQatarEnergy,webelieveescalatingMiddleEasttensionscouldaccelerateEurope’senergytransitionandcatalyzearenewedcleanenergyequipmentprocurementcycle.

WhileEuropebearsthebruntofthedisruption,UScleanenergymanufacturerscouldbenefitiftheregionincrementallyaccelerateswindandsolardeployment.Nearterm,residentialsolarisbestpositionedintheEUgivenrapidinstallationtimelinesandthedirectoffsettorisingelectricityprices.Overtime,utility-scalesolarmaybenefitregardlessofconflictduration.Storageshouldseeincrementaldemandasapairedresource,thougharesurgenceinEVdemandcouldpressureongoingpricedeflationiflithium-ioncellsupplyisreallocated.Wealsoseeemergingoptionalityinnuclear,whereenergysecurityconcernsandreliabilityadvantagescoulddrivegovernmentsupportforfirst-of-a-kindSMRdeploymentsintothe2030s.

Thisremainsanevolvingsituation,thoughwearesurprisedbythemutedreactionincleanenergyequitieswithfavorableexposure.Regardlessofoutcome,Thursday’sstrikereinforcesthestrategicrelevanceofenergyindependence.

Watchforescalation.IranhasthreatenedfurtherattacksonoilandgasinfrastructureacrossQatar,SaudiArabia,andtheUAE,raisingtheriskofadditionalsupplyshocks.ArenewedsurgeinoilandgaspriceswouldexacerbateaffordabilitychallengesacrossEuropeandbeyond,evenasIsraelhassignaledrestraintaroundIran’senergyassets.

StocksWeAreWatching:

WeseeENPH&SEDGasclearestwinnersgivenhistoricallysharpinflectioninEuropetosales,especiallyofflowexpectations.SeeFLNCasanother'lowbar'withsizableexposuretointernationalsalesoftheirstorageproducts.Finally,NXThasbeenuniquelyfocusedoninternationalpivot:shouldaccruetoARRY/SHLStoo.Watchforbacklogopportunitiesabroad.

•SEDG—VolumeandrevenueshouldbenefitfromheighteneddemandinEUmarketsforresidentialsolar,moresothanENPHgivenclosercostproximitytoChinesecompetitors.Expectincrementalbenefittomarginsgiven45xqualificationonshippedproduct

•ENPH—SimilarthesisasSEDG,toalesserextentgivenhighercostmicroinverterproduct.ElevatedEUdemand,evenifmoremodestvs.SEDG,ispositiveandincrementaltotopline,potentiallyassoonas2026/2027.Dual45xbenefitsimilartoSEDG

•NXT—ClearexposureacrosstheEUandMiddleEastlandscapeasamarketleaderandarrayofproductstooffer.WhileexposuretotheMiddleEastcouldseesomeimpactsfromdelayedprojects,watchforglobalexpansion.Recentmgmtmeetingshasshownemphaticpivottowardsdecliningcoststructureandeffortstoexpandglobalcompetitiveness.Thisaccentuatestheongoingglobalpivotunderway.

•SHLS—Withastrongbacklogalreadyinplace,watchformaterialgrowthinternationallyoffasmallbasecurrently(~3%),particularlyEUandAfrica.Weperceivethiswillfeaturemoreprominentlyinitsupdatein2H25.Recentshiftinstrategytowardslowermarginproductscouldyetexpandits

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Ehibit3-CdOilFtAhi10YHih

Jefferies

CleanEnergyEquityResearchMarch20,2026

•FLNC—Notasobviousofanupliftassolar,butmayseeincrementalvolumeifpairedwithutility-scalewind/solarinEurope.However,risingdemandforEVsinEUcouldhaveanoppositeeffectiflithiumproductionisreallocatedtowardautosattheexpenseofstorage

Exhibit2-USCleanStockswithInternationalExposureMayBenefitIfEU/APACMarketsAccelerateWind/SolarDevelopment

Basedoncompany'sfiscalyear

Intl.%ofrevenuemix

RblIilE

enewaenternatonaxposure75%

58%

42%41%

36%

30%

26%

19%

FLNCENPH

FY23FY24

32%32%31%

NXTFY25

39%

SEDG

26%

19%

ARRY

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

0%3%

SHLS

30%

Source:JEFResearch,Companyfilings

*SHLSisbasedonmanagement'scommentary

OngoingMiddleEastconflicthasdrivenasharp+50%increaseinCrudeOilfuturesinashort3-weekwindow,drivingaripplingeffectacrosstheglobalenergylandscape.Therecentescalationdrovepricescloserto$120/bbl,beforeeventuallyclosinglowerafterPresidentTrumppromisedthattheconflictwillbeoversoon.

$/bbl

$140

$120

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

$0

Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-23Mar-24Mar-25Mar-26

BrentCrudeOilFuturesPromptMonth($/bbl)AverageStdev.+1Stdev.-1

xrueuurespproacngearg

BrentCrudeOilFutures

Source:JEFResearch,S&PCapIQ

SouthParsandNorthFieldareoneoftheworld'slargestgasfieldreserve,with51trillioncubicmetersofnaturalgas.Qatar'sRasLaffancomplexhashistoricallysupported~20%oftheworld'sLNGsupply.Europe'sgaspricesjumped35%aftertheinitialattack.NatgasfuturesinEuropeareup~100%sincetheconflictbegan,tonowover€60EUR/MWh.

Exhibit4-Natgasfuturesexceeding€60/MWh

EUR/mwh

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

DutchTTFGasMonthly(EUR/mwh)65.0

60.0

55.0

50.0

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

Source:JEFResearch,FactSet

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WhatHappensNext?PositiveImplicationsforUSCleanStocks

ThreatofEUPowerInflationLoomsAfterRasLaffanStrike

FollowingtheretaliatorystrikeonQatarEnergy’sRasLaffancomplex,globalsovereignyieldsmovedhigheramidrenewedinflationconcerns.FederalReserveChairJeromePowellwarnedthattheMiddleEastoilcrisiscouldintensifyUSinflationwhileleavingratesunchangedatWednesday’sFOMCmeeting.TheBankofEnglandsimilarlyheldratessteadyat3.75%Thursday,citinga“clearrisk”ofinflationremainingaboveits2%target.

Theriskofhigherinflation—andbyextensionhigherinterestrates—intheUSshouldnotbeunderstated.Thatsaid,weviewThursday’sstrikeasincrementallymorenegativeforEuropeanmarkets,reflectedintheStoxxEurope600down~2%onthedayversustheS&P500downjust~25bps.WhileEuropeangovernmentsmayhesitatetoadvancefiscalstimulustosupportrenewablesadoption,privatemarketsmayprovemorereceptive,potentiallyinitiatingacleanenergyprocurementcycleasadefensiveresponse.

CreatingAnOpportunityforSolar

WhilemarketscontinuetodigestThursday’sstrike,webelieveresidentialandutility-scalesolarcouldbenefit,particularlyUSsolarequipmentmanufacturerswithanestablishedpresenceinEurope.Residentialsolarappearsfavorablypositionedrelativetoothersubsegmentsgiveninstallationtimelinesmeasuredinmonthsratherthanyears.Overthemediumtolongterm—andassumingtheconflictprovesmoreprolongedthancurrentlyexpected—Europemayincrementallyaccelerateitsenergytransitionandexpandwindandsolardeployment.

ResidentialSolar:

ResidentialSolarPositionedtoBenefitinEurope.Thedurationoftheconflictandriskoffurtherescalationremainkeysensitivities,butweexpectresidentialsolartobeanetbeneficiaryinEurope,helpingtostabilizeanEUresidentialmarketthathasbeenindownturnforseveralyears.Residentialsolarandstorageareaccessibleandfast-acting,offeringadefensivemoatagainstrisingEuropeanpowerrates.ComparedtotheUS,homesolarandstorageareconsiderablycheaperforEuropeanconsumersgiventheavailabilityoflower-costChineseequipmentthatisnotconstrainedbyprotectionistpolicyorinflatedbydomesticsubsidies.TheaddressablemarketisalsolargerintheEU,whereapartmentdwellerscandeploysmaller-scale,“plug-and-play”balconysolar—unliketheUS,wherepermittingrequirementsremainmorerigidacrossmoststates.

DoubleWinforSEDG/ENPH—RevenueandMarginUpliftvia45x.WeviewSEDGandENPHasfavorablyexposedtorisingEuropeanpowerprices,supportedbyinternationalrevenueexposureof~39%forSEDGand~19%forENPH(FY25).SEDGmayfarebettergivenitshigherinternationalmixandthecostadvantageofitsstringinverters,whichcompetemoreeffectivelyalongsideChineseproductsintheEUmarket.WhileENPHhasbeenslowtorecoverinEuropewithitspremiummicroinverteroffering,westillseepotentialforincrementalvolumeupsidein2026–27thatisnotreflectedincurrentsharevaluation.Bothcompaniesalsobenefitfrom45xeligibility,drivingnotonlyrevenueupsidefromincrementalvolumebutalsomarginupliftoninvertersshippedintoEurope,as45xisearnedondomesticallymanufacturedproductregardlessofcustomerdomicile.

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ENPHandSEDGsawapositiveupliftinEuropean/non-USsalesin2022-2023partiallyinresponsetothebeginningoftheUkrainewar.However,weworrythatthelatestpivottowardscleanenergycouldwellbedis-intermediatedbycheaperChinesealternatives'thistime'.Thiscouldstillverymuchimpacttheadoptionofcleanenergyalternativesin2025.

Notclearyetonanewcycle...butataminitwouldappearalowpricedupswing.

Exhibit5-AreWeEnteringaNewProcurementCycleforResidentialSolar?

Revenue-$Mn

-

202020212022202320242025

ENPHSEDG

$3,500

$3,000

$2,500

$2,000

$1,500

$1,000

$500

Ehibilifldi'ikiS

r

Source:Companydocumentsandfilings

Exhibit6-Procurementcyclesin2022/2023reflectedinENPH'suptickinnon-USrevenuemix

ENPHRevenueMix%

82%80%

20202021

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

81%

2025

76%

2022

70%

2024

64%

2023

USInternational

100%

Source:Companydocumentsandfilings

xt7-Procurementcycesn2022/2023reectenSEDGsuptcnnon-Uevenuemix

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

SEDGRevenueMix%

43%

45%

54%

64%

27%36%

42%

40%

36%

26%

61%42%

202020212022202320242025

USEuropeInternational

Source:Companydocumentsandfilings

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UtilityScaleSolar:

EnergyIndependenceANDAffordability=AccelerationinUtility-ScaleSolar.WithgaspricesinEuropenowexceeding€60/MWh,wecouldseeaclearincentivetoleaninonutility-scalesolarmoremeaningfullytosolvebothenergyindependenceandaffordabilityissuesbyacceleratingdevelopmentcycle.Currentmarketestimatescallforover60GWofannualinstallationsintheEU.Withgaspricesmovingsignificantlyhigher,wecouldseepositiverevisionstocurrentestimateswritlarge.ConsideringbuildcyclesintheUSareatleasttwotothreeyears(notaccountingforpermittingconstraints)andthattheEUmarkethassimilarpermittingbottlenecks,wecouldseeanaccelerationinsolarequipmentprocurementcyclestodriveupsidetodeploymentsin2029/30andbeyond.Whileaslowermovingpiecethanresi,watchforincreasingrelianceonutility-scaletoaddincrementalwattstothegrid.

Exhibit8-EUAnnualInstallationExpectedToBe>60GWThrough2030

GW

201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

EuropeAnnualSolarPVInstallation(GW)

42

29

21

6665

6159

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

58

64

67

64

61

17

4

Source:JEFResearch,SolarPowerEurope

NXT,ARRY&SHLSWellPositioned.Amongtheutility-scalesolarplayers,NXT,ARRYandSHLShad31%,19%and3%revenuefrominternationalmarketsinFY25,respectively.NXTdominatesoutsideofUSaswell,withleadingmarketshareinAustraliaandEUandmorerecentlyrampingmeaningfullyinSaudiArabiathroughitsJVpartnershipwithAbunayyanHoldings.GivenitsmarketpositioninEUandMiddleEastmarkets,wheretheeffectofapotentialenergycrisisislikelytobemorepronounced,asteptowardsenergyindependenceisapositivetailwindforNXTwithitsdiversesetoftechsolutions(trackers,foundations,inverter,frames,eBOSandsoftware/services).Secondly,whilethemixofinternationalrevenueasapercentageoftotalforARRYhasbeenonadecline,andmanagementhasbecomemoreconservativewithlimitedinclusionofinternationalprojectsinitsbacklog,thecompanystillremainspositivelypositionedgivenexposuretotheEU(whichisrelativelymoreexposed).Lastly,whileonly~3%ofSHLSrevenueinFY25wasoutsidetheUS,with12%ofcurrentbacklog(BLAO)ininternational,wecouldseeinternationalrevenuesbecomemuchmoremeaningfulfromhere,withfocusonSpain,AustraliaandAfricaaskeymarkets.

However,SolarisNOTInsulatedfromaGlobalCrisisEither.Wecouldseeasurgeininputcostforrenewablesasaresultoftheongoingcrisisaswell.Alikelyunderappreciatedcomponentofpotentialinflationishighercostofaluminum.Around9%ofworld'saluminumproductionsitsinthePersianGulf,andwiththerecentstrangulationoftheStraitofHormuz,wecouldseeawaveofaluminumsmeltersshutdown.Aluminumisakeystructuralcomponentinbothsolarandwind,particularlyPVframe,racking/mountingsystemandturbinenacelles.Couplethiswithhigheroilandgasprices,freightcostsforOEMscouldskyrocketglobally.USOEMshavealreadybeeninflictedwithsignificantharmin2025

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fromtariffvolatility.Layeringhigherrawmaterialpricesontopcouldeventuallydrivetheoverallsolarsystemcostmeaningfullyhigher.

Exhibit9-NXTwithleadingexposureamongUSutility-scaleOEMs

Intl.

revas%oftotal

Intl.Backlog

KeyMarkets

NXTARRY

SHLS

31%

19%

3%

Undisclosed

SaudiArabia,Australia,Spain,Brazil,India,Mexico&UAE

Undisclosed

Spain,Australia&Brazil

$90mn(12%)

Spain,Australia&Africa

Source:JEFResearch,Companyfilings

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Utility-ScaleStorage

SlightPositiveforStorage,withCaveats.Similartoutility-scalesolar,storagecouldemergeasalonger-termbeneficiaryinEuropeshouldanewequipmentprocurementcyclematerialize.Pairingstoragewithgrid-scalewindandsolarenhancescapacityfactors,reinforcesgridreliability,andcanreduceoverallsystempowercosts.Demandforutility-scalestorageinEuropehasalreadybeensupportedbyrenewabledeploymentandco-locationopportunities,andshouldwindandsolardevelopmentaccelerateincrementallyasaresultofMiddleEastdisruptions,storagewouldlikelybenefitbyextension.

Thatsaid,weseepotentialchallengesemerginginthelithiumironphosphate(LFP)supplychainifEuropeanelectricvehicle(EV)demandalsorisesinresponsetoelevatedoilandgasprices.AsustainedincreaseinEVadoptionwouldcompetedirectlywithgrid-scalestorageforlithium-ioncells—whethernickelmanganesecobalt(NMC)orLFP—promptingChinesemanufacturerstoreallocateproductioncapacitytowardEVsattheexpenseofstationarystorage.

PotentiallyPositiveforFLNC,butEVDemandIsKeytoWatch.Atfirstglance,tighterlithium-ionsupplyfromChinacouldappearconstructivefordomesticbatterypeerssuchasFLNC,EOSE,andTSLA.However,reducedavailabilityofLFPcellswouldnegativelyimpactFLNCandTSLAgiventheirrelianceonimportedcells—particularlyFLNC,asTSLAhasalreadymovedaggressivelytowardnon-Chinesesourcingandverticalintegration.Bottomline,theimpactondomesticLFP-basedstorageplayersismixedandhighlysensitivetohowEuropeanEVdemandevolves.EOSE,withitszinc-brominechemistry,couldbearelativebeneficiaryifEuropeanstoragedemandaccelerates,thoughweremaincautiousgivenitsdeminimisinternationalexposure.

Don'tForgetAboutCarbon-FreeBaseloadPower

Positiveimplicationsforbothnuclearandgeothermalinthelong-run,butopportunitysetremainsrestrictedtocommercializationtimelinesthatare5-10yearsoutfromtoday.

Nuclear

Givendisruptionstotheoilandgasmarket,wecouldalsoseecountriesleanonfirmsolutionslikenuclear.Nuclearoffersacompetitiveadvantagerelativetorenewablesgivendispatchablegeneration,lowfuelcostandde-riskingenergyrelianceonothercountries.Whilecostanddevelopmenttimelineareprotracted,seelatestenergycrisisasspurringmoredevelopment,particularlyinAPACwhichhasbeenexposedtooscillationsofenergypricesandhasatrackrecordofdevelopment.MorerecentlyGEVandHitachiMoUtoexploreBWRX-300SMRdeploymentopportunityinSouthEastAsiabodeswellwiththisthesis.However,weframenuclearasamuchmoreelongatedstory,givenbuildtimefornewnuclearcloseto2035,initialcapitalcostsasveryhigh(anddifficulttopredict)andglobalHALEUsupplyst