Ember：2026年全球电力评论报告（英文版）

EMB兰RGlobalElectricityReview2026SolarsurgehaltsfossilgenerationriseascleanpowermeetsalldemandgrowthandrenewablesovertakecoalNicolasFulghumWilmarSuarezKatyeAltieriKostantsaRangelovaEMB三R2AboutEmber’sseventhannualGlobalElectricityReviewprovidesthefirstcomprehensiveoverviewofchangesinglobalandcountry-levelelectricitygenerationin2025,basedonreporteddata.Itpresentscurrenttrendsandimplicationsforelectricitysourcesandpowersectoremissionsinthenearfuture.Withthereport,Emberisalsoreleasingthefirstcomprehensive,freedatasetofglobalelectricitygenerationin2025.Thereportanalyseselectricitydatafrom215countries,includingthelatest2025datafor91countriesrepresenting93%ofglobalelectricitydemand.Theanalysisalsoincludesdatafor13geographicandeconomicgroupings,suchasAfrica,Asia,LatinAmerica,theEUandtheG7.Italsodivesdeeperintothesevencountriesandregionswiththehighestelectricitydemand,whichaccountfor72%ofglobalelectricitydemand.Inadditiontoelectricitygenerationdata,thereportusesweatherandcapacitydatatouncovertheunderlyingtrendsshapingtheglobalpowersector.Wemakeallofthedatafreelyaccessibletoempowerotherstodotheirownanalysisandhelpspeeduptheswitchtocleanelectricity.ThisreportisthefirstinasequenceofannualglobalflagshipreportsfromEmber,includingtheChinaEnergyTransitionReview,ElectrotechRevolution,andourpartnershipintheEnergyInstituteStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy.Readthereportonlineat:Readthereportonlineat:/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/EMB三R3HighlightsShareofglobalelectricitydemandgrowthmetbysolarpowerin2025.33.8%Shareofrenewablesinglobalpowergenerationin2025–aboveathirdforthefirsttime,overtakingcoal.-0.2%Year-on-yearchangeinfossilgeneration.3.7Hydro723.8Coal75EMB三R4ContentsContents5Foreword6Executivesummary7Chapter1:2025inreview121.1Ledbysolarpower,cleanelectricitysourcesmetalldemandgrowthin2025121.2Recordsolarpowergrowthin2025141.3Globalfossilgenerationstagnates,drivenbyfallsinChinaandIndia171.4Renewablesovertakecoalforfirsttimeinthemodernera22Chapter2:GlobalElectricityInsights262.1Theeraofcleanpowergrowthishere272.1.1Howtheworldmovedfromfossil-fuelledgrowthtocleangrowth272.1.2Chinatipstheglobalbalanceawayfromfossilgrowth–Indiawon’treverseit292.1.3Cleanpowerisclosingthedoorforremainingfossilgrowth322.1.4Cleanpowerexpansioncanshiftfossilfuelsfromplateautodecline362.2Batteriesaremakingdaytimesolarintoanytimesolarandarereadytounlockthenext stageofsolarpowergrowth402.2.1Cheapdaytimesolarisalreadytransformingpowersystemsglobally402.2.2Batteriesarereadytobringaparadigmshiftandunlockthesecondstageofglobalsolargrowth44Chapter3:GlobalElectricityDemandandSupplyTrends503.1Globalelectricitydemand523.2Globalelectricitysupplyoverview563.3Solar583.4Wind623.5Gas663.6Nuclear69EMB三R5ContentsChapter4:AnalysisofMajorCountriesandRegions784.1China794.2UnitedStates844.3EuropeanUnion884.4India934.5Russia984.6Japan102Supportingmaterials113Methodology113Acknowledgements118EMB三R6ForewordTheglobalenergysystemisunderincreasingstrain.Recentyears,andindeedrecentmonths,havehighlightedtheinherentvulnerabilitiesofasystembuiltaroundfossilfuels—exposuretopricevolatility,geopoliticalriskandsupplydisruption.Thesepressuresarenottemporary;theyreflectstructuralcharacteristicsofhowthesystemoperatestoday.Thisyear’sGlobalElectricityReviewshowsthatanalternativeisnotonlyemergingbutscalingquickly,withcleanpowermeetingallgrowthinglobalelectricitydemand.Solarhasbecometheleadingsourceofnewgeneration,supportedbybatterystoragethatisbeginningtoprovidesystemflexibilityatscale.InmajoreconomiesincludingChinaandIndia,fossilgenerationdeclinedlastyearevenasdemandcontinuedtogrow.Thesedevelopmentspointtoashiftintheunderlyingdynamicsofthepowersystem:cleanelectricityisincreasinglymeetingdemandgrowth.Thistransitionremainsunevenandincomplete.Fossilfuelscontinuetoplayasignificantrole,andprogressvariesacrossregions.Butthedirectionoftravelisbecomingclearer,andthetechnologiesdrivingchangearescalingrapidly.AsEmberworkswiththeEnergyInstituteontheforthcomingStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,thereisanopportunitytobuildonthisperspectiveacrossthewiderenergysystem—combiningarobustglobalenergydatasetwithdeeperinsightintothestructuralchangesnowunderway.BaronessBryonyWorthingtonFounderandChairoftheBoard,EmberExecutivesummary7SolarsurgehaltsfossilgenerationriseasrenewablesovertakecoalRecordsolargrowthmeantcleanpowersourcesgrewfastenoughtomeetallnewelectricitydemandin2025,therebypreventinganincreaseinfossilgeneration.Thiswasthefirstyearsince2020withoutanincreaseinelectricitygenerationfromfossilfuelsandonlythefifthyearwithoutarisethiscentury.ChinaandIndia,historicallythelargestcontributorstotheglobalriseinfossilpower,bothrecordedafallinfossilgenerationin2025.Inbothcountries,recordcleanpoweradditionsoutpaceddemandgrowth.Thisbroughtglobalnetgrowthinfossilgenerationtoahalt.Solarpowercementeditsroleasthedominantdriverofchangeintheglobalpowersector,withitsrecordgrowthmeetingthree-quartersofthenetriseinelectricitydemandin2025.Solar’srisewas18timeslargerthanthatofgas,theonlyfossilfuelthatincreasedin2025.GlobalsolargenerationisnowthesamesizeasthetotalelectricitydemandoftheEU.Chinaonceagainledsolarbuild-out,recordingmorethanhalfoftheglobalincreaseinbothsolarcapacityandsolargenerationin2025.ThispushedtheshareofsolarandwindinChina’sgenerationmixto22%,surpassingtheOECDaverage(20%).Indiaalsorampedupcleanpowerdeployment.Renewablegenerationgrowthdoubleditspreviousrecord,andIndiainstalledmorenewsolarcapacitythantheUnitedStatesforthefirsttime.8Inanotherglobalmilestone,renewablesovertookcoalpowerin2025.Solar,wind,hydropowerandotherrenewablesourcestogethercontributedmorethanathirdofglobalelectricitygenerationforthefirsttimeinthemodernpowersystem.Conversely,theshareofcoalpowerfellbelowathirdforthefirsttimeinhistory.Theacceleratingbuild-outofsolarpowerisincreasinglytakingplacealongsidebatterystoragedeployment,enablingthenextparadigmshift–fromdaytimesolartoanytimesolar.Batterycostsfellsharplyforthesecondconsecutiveyear.In2024,batterycostsdropped20%.In2025,theyfellafurther45%,whiledeploymentgrew46%toanestimated250GWh.Asaresult,theworldinstalledenoughbatterycapacitytoshift14%ofthenewsolargenerationin2025frommiddaytootherhoursoftheday.Front-runnerssuchasChileandAustraliainstalledenoughgrid-levelstoragetoshiftover50%ofnewsolargenerationin2025andarealreadyseeingbenefitsinlowerpowerpricesandreducedcurtailment.9KeytakeawaysCleanpowermetallnewCleanpowermetallnewelectricitydemand,haltingfossilgenerationgrowthDrivenbyrecordsolargrowth,low-carbonpowergenerationincreasedby887TWhin2025,outpacingelectricitydemandgrowthof849TWh.Solarpoweralonemet75%ofthenetincreaseinelectricitydemand.Togetherwithwind,thetwosourcesmetalmostall(99%)demandgrowth.ForthefirsttimesincetheCovid-19pandemicin2020,andonlythefifthtimethiscentury,fossilgenerationdidnotrise,recordingasmallfallof38TWh(-0.2%).02Solargrowsathighestrateineightyearsasexponentialrisecontinues02Solarpowerincreasedbyarecord636TWhtoreach2,778TWhin2025,a30%increasefrom2024.Thisnewsolargenerationwouldbesufficienttodisplacegas-firedelectricityequivalenttoallLNGexportsthroughtheStraitofHormuzlastyear,estimatedat550TWh.Despitethemuchlargerabsoluteadditions,thiswasthehighestpercentagegrowthsolarhasrecordedineightyears,continuingitsexponentialrise.Solarhasbeendoublingroughlyeverythreeyears,risingfrom1,333TWhin2022.Ithasgrownmorethantenfoldinthedecadesince2015,whenglobalsolargenerationwasjust256TWh.Solarovertookwindpowerforthefirsttimegloballyin2025anddrewclosetonuclearpower.Bothsolarandwindareexpectedtoovertakenuclearin2026.03FossilgenerationfallsinChinaandIndiainhistoricreversal TheglobalfallinfossilgenerationwasdrivenbyahistoricreversalinfossiltrendsinChinaandIndia,thelargestandthird-largestfossilpowercountriesglobally.2025wasthefirstyearthiscenturywhenfossilgenerationfellinbothcountries.InChina,itfellby56TWh(-0.9%),markingthefirstdeclinesince2015.Recordcleanpoweradditions,predominantlyfromsolar,pushedgrowthinlow-carbonsourcesabovedemandgrowth.InIndia,arecordincreaseinbothsolarandwindgeneration,combinedwithstronghydrooutputandlower-than-averagedemandgrowth,ledtoadeclineinfossilgenerationof52TWh(-3.3%).ThiscameafterfouryearsofstrongfossilincreasesfollowingtheeconomicreboundfromtheCovid-19pandemic.04Renewablesovertakecoalforthefirsttimeinmodernera Forthefirsttimein100years,renewables(33.8%,10,730TWh)overtookcoalpower(33.0%,10,476TWh)intheglobalelectricitymixascontinuedrapidgrowthinsolarandwindpushedtheshareofrenewablesaboveathirdofglobalgeneration.Coalpowerdropped63TWh(-0.6%)in2025,markingthefirstfallsincetheCovid-19pandemicin2020.Combinedwithcontinuedelectricitydemandgrowth,thismeantcoalfellbelowathirdofglobalgenerationforthefirsttimeinhistory.Theworldisenteringaneraofcleangrowthandexitingtheeraoffossilgrowthinthepowersector.Abundantcleanelectricityisenablingtheelectrificationofothersectorssuchastransport,acceleratingthereductionoffossilfueldependenceacrosstheeconomy.]]Thisstructuralshiftishappeningatakeyjunctureintheglobalenergysystemastheworldreelsfromtwomajorfossilshocksinjustfouryears.First,Russia’sinvasionofUkraine,andmorerecently,theUS-IsraelwarwithIran,havelaidbarethevulnerabilityofaglobalenergysystemdependentonvolatilefossilfuelmarkets.Foremergingandmatureeconomiesalike,thismomentmakesthecaseforanchoringeconomicgrowthonasecure,domesticenergybase.Thosescalingcleanpowerthefastestwillbebestplacedtoreducefossilfueldependenceintheshorttermandsupporteconomicgrowthinthelongterm.Withsolar,windandbatterystoragenowcost-competitive,multipletechnologicaldevelopmentshaveconvergedatscaletofundamentallytransformtheglobalenergysystemandofferapermanentroutetoenergysecurity."Wehavefirmlyenteredtheeraofcleangrowth.Cleanenergyisnowscalingfast"enoughtoabsorbrisingglobalelectricitydemand,keepingfossilgenerationflatbeforeitsinevitabledecline.Themomentumweareseeingisnolongerjustanambition,itisbecomingastructuralreality.Solarhasbeenthedominantdriverofchangeintheglobalpowersystem,andalongwithbatterystorage,itisopeningapathtofast-scaling,round-the-clockcleanpower.Cleanenergyisrapidlyredefiningthefoundationofenergysecurityinavolatileworld.Itisalreadyhelpingcountriesreduceexposuretofossilfuelimportsandcostswhile"meetingrisingelectricitydemand.Thenextstepistomodernisegridsandregulatoryframeworkssopowersystemsarereadytohandlethisnewreality."AdityaLollaInterimManagingDirector,EmberEMB三R]2Chapter1:2025inreviewHistoricsolarpowerrisehaltsfossilgenerationgrowthascleansourcesmeetallnewelectricitydemandArecordincreaseinsolarpowergenerationmet75%oftheincreaseinglobalelectricitydemand.Combined,low-carbonpowersources–renewablesandnuclear–grewfasterthandemand,resultinginasmallfallinfossilgeneration.Renewablessurpassedone-thirdofglobalelectricitygeneration,overtakingcoalpowerforthefirsttimein100years.1.1Ledbysolarpower,cleanelectricitysourcesmetalldemandgrowthin2025Arecordincreaseinsolarpowermeantcleanelectricitygrowthwaslargeenoughtomeetalladditionalelectricitydemandgloballyin2025.Thisresultedinaslightdeclineinfossilgeneration.Solarpowerledbothgloballyandacrossmajoreconomies,cementingitsplaceasthefastest-growingelectricitysourceofalltime.Solarmetthree-quartersofglobalelectricitydemandgrowthasfossilfuelsstagnatedIn2025,solargenerationincreasedbyarecord636TWh(+30%),doublethetotalannualelectricitydemandoftheUnitedKingdom.Solaralonemet75%oftheincreaseinelectricitydemandof849TWh(+2.8%).China(+336TWh)contributedmorethanhalfoftheincreaseinsolargeneration,withtheUS(+85TWh)andEU(+60TWh)alsoaddingsubstantialsolaroutput.Windsawthesecond-largestincrease,growing205TWh(+8.2%).Thiswassimilartogrowthin2024(+190TWh,+8.2%).Althoughbelowtherecordincreaseof265TWhin2021,itwasstillequivalenttomorethanPoland’stotalelectricitydemand.Aswithsolar,Chinaalsomadeupthemajorityoftheglobalriseinwind,withanincreaseof138TWh(+14%),aheadofIndiaat22TWh(+28%).Combined,windandsolargrewby841TWh,meeting99%ofglobalelectricitydemandgrowth.Withnuclearandotherlow-carbonsourcesincreasingbyanadditional46TWh,allcleanpowersourcestogetherexceededthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemand,leadingtoasmallfallinfossilgenerationof38TWh(-0.2%).EMB三R]4Nuclearpowerrosemoderatelyby35TWh(+1.3%),largelydrivenbynewreactorscomingonlineinChina(+37TWh),aswellasincreasedoutputinFrance(+12TWh)andJapan(+9TWh).Conversely,reactorclosuresinBelgiumreducedoutputby7TWh.Hydropowerremainedsimilarto2024,increasingby3TWh(+0.1%).HydrooutputincreasedmostinChina(+45TWh),whilestrongmonsoonrainfallimprovedoutputinIndia(+21TWh).ThiswasbalancedoutbylargedeclinesinBrazil(-25TWh),Türkiye(-17TWh)andintheEU(-43TWh),wherealpineregionsofItaly,FranceandSwitzerlandwereparticularlyaffectedbylowerprecipitationfollowinggoodhydroconditionsin2024.ElectricitydemandgrewinlinewiththerecentaverageGlobalelectricitydemandgrewbyamoderate2.8%(+849TWh)in2025,significantlybelowthe4.3%growthin2024,butbroadlyinlinewiththeten-yearaverageannualincreaseof2.7%(2015to2024).Theincreasein2025stillrepresentsthesixth-largestabsoluteannualriseeverrecorded.In2024,exceptionallyhightemperaturescomparedto2023hadpusheddemandgrowthwellabovestructuraltrends.However,becauseconditionsin2025remainedsimilartothosein2024,weatherwasnotafactordrivingdemandgrowthatthegloballevelthisyear.Aslowdowninindustrialactivity,particularlyincountrieswithlargeindustrialdemandsuchasChina,alsocontributedtolowergrowthin2025.Incontrast,theelectrificationofothersectorssuchastransport,aswellasrisingdatacentredemandaredrivinghigherelectricityneeds(seemoreanalysisonfactorsaffectingdemandgrowthin2025inChapter3).1.2Recordsolarpowergrowthin2025Therecordincreaseinsolarpowerof636TWhwas33%higherthanthepreviousrecordsetin2024(+479TWh)andfourtimeslargerthantheincreasefiveyearsagoin2020(+155TWh).Solargenerationgrowthin2025representsthelargestannualincreaseofanyindividualelectricitysourceonrecord,withtheexceptionofthereboundincoalgeneration(+719TWh)aftertheCovid-19pandemicin2021.EMB三R]5SolarrecordsthelargeststructuralriseofanyelectricitysourceeverUnlikecoal’sincreasein2021,solaradditionsreflectstructuralcapacityexpansionratherthanfluctuationsindemand.Itwasonlythethirdtimeeverthatasourceincreasedbymorethan500TWhingenerationinasingleyear.Forthefourthyearrunning,solarrecordedthelargestabsolutegrowthofanyelectricitysource.Thecontinuedgrowthinsolargenerationwassupportedbyanewrecordforcapacityadditionsof647GWin2025.Globalsolarcapacityinstallationsincreasedby11%comparedto2024(+582GW),whichwillsupportsustainedgenerationgrowthwellinto2026.EMB三R]6Solar’sexponentialrisecontinuesasitovertakeswindSolarpowerincreasedfrom2,143TWhin2024to2,778TWhin2025,a30%increaseandthehighestgrowthrateineightyearsdespiteamuchhigherbase.Thisshowsthatsolar’sexponentialgrowthtrajectoryremainsintactevenatscale.GlobalsolaroutputisnowthesamesizeasthetotalelectricitydemandoftheEU-27.Overthelasttenyears,solargrewatanaveragerateof27%peryear,withtheannualgrowthrateneverdroppingbelow21%.Tenyearsago,in2015,solarpowergenerated256TWhglobally.Atthetime,nuclearpowerwastentimeslargerthansolar,andwindpowerwasthreetimeslarger.Sincethen,globalsolargenerationhasgrownmorethantenfold,overtakingwindpowerforthefirsttimeeverin2025andnearlydrawinglevelwithnuclearpower.DuringthesummerinthenorthernEMB三R]7hemisphereof2025–fromApriltoSeptember-solargeneratedmoreelectricitygloballythannuclearpower.Bothsolarandwindareexpectedtoovertakenuclearpowerin2026.Halfoftheincreaseinsolargenerationinthelastdecadewasachievedinjustthelastthreeyears,withoutputdoublingfrom1,333TWhin2022.Overthatperiod,solar’sincreaseinannualgenerationof1,445TWhmethalfoftheglobalincreaseinelectricitydemandof2,862TWh.Solarhasnowbeenthefastest-growingsourceglobally(inpercentageterms)for21consecutiveyears.1.3Globalfossilgenerationstagnates,drivenbyfallsinChinaandIndia2025markedthefirstyearsincetheCovid-19pandemicin2020withoutanincreaseinelectricitygenerationfromfossilfuelsandonlythefifthyearthishashappenedsincetheturnofthecentury.Previousfallsinglobalfossilgenerationoccurredonlyduringglobalrecessionsorexceptionallymildyears.Incontrast,theIMFexpectsglobaleconomicgrowthin2025of3.2%,inlinewiththeten-yearaverage(2015-2024)of3.1%.Equally,changesinweatherconditionshadnosignificantinfluenceonelectricitydemandgrowthatagloballevel.Inastarkdeparturefromhistoricaltrends,fossilgenerationfellinbothChina(-56TWh,-0.9%)andIndia(-52TWh,-3.3%),drivenbycontinuedrapidcleanpowerdeploymentandmoderatedemandgrowth.Combined,ChinaandIndiamadeup42%ofglobalfossilgenerationin2025.TheirfallsoffsetsmallincreasesintheUS,EUandothereconomies,leadingtoaminorfallinfossilgenerationatagloballevelof38TWh(-0.2%).Thenetchangeinglobalfossilgenerationwastheresultofacombinationofafallincoalgenerationof63TWh(-0.6%)andotherfossilgeneration(-12TWh,-1.4%),mostlyfromoil,andariseingasgenerationof36TWh(+0.5%).EMB三R]8ThiswasthefirstyearthiscenturythatfossilgenerationdeclinedsimultaneouslyinbothChinaandIndia,twooftheworld’sthreelargestpowersectoremitters(readmoreabouttheroleofChinaandIndiainChapter2).Asaresult,theircombinedpowersectoremissionsfellby79MtCO2ecomparedto2024–equivalenttotheannualpowersectoremissionsofBrazil–withChinadown37MtCO2e(-0.7%)andIndiadown42MtCO2e(-2.9%).Globally,powersectoremissionsin2025remainedalmostequalto2024levels(-6MtCO2e,-0.04%).In2024,emissionshadrisenby1.7%(+237MtCO2e).EMB三R]9China’sfossilgenerationfallsforfirsttimesince2015assolarpowerboomsChina’sfossilgenerationfellforthefirsttimesince2015,whenaneconomicdownturnledtothelowestelectricitydemandincreaseinChinathiscentury(+19TWh,+0.3%).Incontrast,thefallin2025occurreddespitecontinuedstronggrowthinelectricitydemandof503TWh(+5.0%),ascleangenerationgrewby561TWh(+15%).Solarandwindwerethelargestcontributors.Solargrewby336TWh,anastonishing40%risecomparedto2024output,whilewindincreasedby138TWh(+14%).Solaralonemettwo-thirdsoftheincreaseinChina’selectricitydemandin2025.AccordingtoChina’sNationalEnergyAdministration,renewablepowergenerationin2025exceededtheelectricitydemandofhouseholdsandtheservicesectorcombined.TherapidgrowthinsolarandwindgenerationreflectsChina’scontinuedworld-leadingpaceofcapacitydeployment.Asinpreviousyears,Chinamadeupmorethanhalfofnewsolarandwindcapacityaddedgloballyin2025.China’ssolarcapacitydeploymentof378GW(DC)in2025madeup58%ofglobalsolarinstallationsof647GW(DC)andexceededtheUnitedStates’totalsolarcapacityof274GW(DC)(seemethodologyforDCvs.ACreportingdifferences).China’swindinstallationsofEMB三R20119GWin2025werea50%increaseoverdeploymentin2024andaccountedforaremarkable72%ofglobaldeployment,whichreachedarecordhighof167GWin2025.China’swindcapacityadditionsin2025werelargerthanthetotalinstalledwindcapacityinGermany,theworld’sthirdlargestwindpowercountry(78GW).Asaresultofthefast-pacedcleanpowerdeployment,China’sconsistentriseinfossilgenerationhascometoahalt.Fossilpoweroutputhasbeenflatfornearlytwoyears,withfossilgenerationinthetwelvemonthstoDecember2025remainingatthesamelevelasinJanuary2024,thelongestsuchstreakinrecenthistory.India’sfossilgenerationdeclinesamidmildweatherconditionsandarenewablesurgeFossilgenerationinIndiarecordedanextraordinaryfallof52TWh(-3.3%)in2025.Renewablepowergenerationfromsol