摩根大通-AI服务器ODM：主要市场动态与竞争亮点-AI Server ODMs：Key Market Dynamics and Competitive Highlights-20280422

AsiaPacificE

hqtutiys:R/e/swewr.ch

22April2026

AIServerODMs

KeyMarketDynamicsandCompetitiveHighlights

Inthisnote,weprovideanupdateontheAIserverODMsystemandmodulemarketsharematrix.Assystemintegrators,ODMsarekeyenablersforCSPAIinfrastructuredevelopment.ServerODMmarginsmaymoderateovertimeassiliconASPsrise,butprofitdollarsshouldclimbwithvolumeandMVAgrowth.Complexdesigncapabilitiesandfrequentproductupgradeskeepthecompetitivelandscapeconcentratedamongafewmajorplayers.NewAIarchitectures—suchasLPU,CPX,andVeraCPUrack—raisethebarforinnovationandexecution.HonHaiandQuantastandoutaspreferredpicksintheNVL72supplychain,whileCelesticaandWiwynnleadamongASICplays.WeexpecttheseODMstocaptureprofitgrowththroughscaleanddesignleadership.Keycatalystsincludeearningsprints,bettervisiblityintothe2027capexcycle,andhighercomplexityofserverarchitecture.

•UpsiderisktoUSCSPcapexgrowthin2026:Top-4CSPcapexguidanceimpliesUS$650+bnthisyearvs.~US$415bnin2025,andwebelievetheincremental~US$245bnislargelyfundinghigherGPUandmemorycontent.WithNVL72rackshipmentslikelyrisingto~65–70kunits(vs.~25–27klastyear)andAIASICservervolumesalsoexpanding,weexpectcapexbudgetstoberevisedhigheroverthenextfewquarters,potentiallyconvergingtowardstheimpliedFCF“ceiling”of~US$750–800bn.IncrementalcapexshouldbesupportiveofadvancedservermoduledemandandcontinuedAIinfrastructureinnovation.

•NvidiaGPUsupplychaindynamicsremainstable,withpotentialshareupsideforWiwynn:HonHaiandQuantaaretheprimaryNVL72racksuppliersformajorCSPs(~40–45%and~25–30%share,respectively),whileWiwynnisengagingOracleandMetaasapotential2ndsourceforVR200.WistronremainsheavilyleveragedtoDell,whereDellislookingtoaddCompalasanincrementalsupplier.OnGPUmodules,Nvidiacontinuestodual-sourceprimarilywithHonHaiandWistrongivendesignknow-howandexecution,andweseehighbarriersfornewentrantsgiventhecomplexityofmoduledesign.

•TPU/TrilliumandT3remainkeybrightspotsintheASICsupplychain:ASICserversarestructurallymorecustomized,which(alongsidelowersiliconASPs)tendstobemargin-supportiveforODMs.WealsoseelowODMswitchingriskatCSPsgivenlong-tenuredNPIpartnershipsandtheiterativenatureofeachplatformgeneration,whichhelpspreservedesigncontinuityandacceleratetime-to-market.Asvolumesscale,manufacturingmaybroadentosecond/thirdsources,butweexpecttheeconomicstoremainanchoredwiththeleadODMthatownsthedesignandNPI—keepingdesignleadershipandsupply-chainflexibilitycentraltocapturingincrementalupside.

Technology-Hardware

AlbertHungAC

(886-2)2725-9875

albert.hung@

J.P.MorganSecurities(Taiwan)Limited/J.P.

MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

SamikChatterjee,CFAAC

(1-212)622-0798

samik.x.chatterjee@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

GokulHariharanAC

(852)2800-8564

gokul.hariharan@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

AnthonyLeng

(886-2)2725-9240

anthony.leng@

J.P.MorganSecurities(Taiwan)Limited

Seepage4foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon.USanalystdisclosures.

2

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22April2026

Figure1:Top4USCSPtotalcapex

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

62%65%59%

34%33%

18%

-1%

20192020202120222023202420252026

Top4USCSPtotalcapex(US$bn)YoY

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Companydata.2026U.S.CSPcapexbasedoncompanyguidance.

Table1:JPMestimateNVL72rackshipments

GB200+300

Jan

Feb

Mar

1Q25

Apr

May

Jun

2Q25

Jul

Aug

Sep

3Q25

Oct

Nov

Dec

4Q25

Jan

Feb

Mar

1Q26

2025

2026

Honhai

50

100

250

400

450

500

550

1,500

1,100

1,450

1,650

4,200

1,800

1,900

2,100

5,800

2,000

1,900

2,800

6,700

11,900

28,900

Quanta

10

50

90

150

300

400

700

1,400

450

400

750

1,600

750

950

1,600

3,300

1,300

1,300

2,400

5,000

6,450

18,000

Wistron

100

40

10

150

150

950

700

1,800

550

200

600

1,350

300

1,300

900

2,500

950

1,500

1,550

4,000

5,800

14,000

Others

200

50

200

50

300

850

1,700

2,300

3,050

7,600

Total

900

5,000

8,000

13,300

18,000

27,200

68,500

Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Companydata.

Table2:AIserverODMmatrix-GPUmodule

GPUmodule

Major

Secondary

NvidiaOAM

HonHai

Wistron

NvidiaUBB

Wistron

HonHai

NvidiaLPU

HonHai

AMDMI300

OAM/UBB:Wistron

AMDMI400

OAM:Wistron

UBB:Sanmina

Source:J.P.Morganestimates.

Table3:AIserverODMmatrix-Nvidia’sGPUsystem

NvidiaNVL72

GB200

GB300

VR200

Major

Secondary

Major

Secondary

Major

Secondary

Microsoft

HonHai

Quanta

HonHai

Quanta

HonHai

Quanta

Meta

Quanta

HonHai

Quanta

HonHai

Quanta

HonHai,(Wiwynn)

Amazon

Quanta

HonHai

Quanta

HonHai,Jabil

Quanta

HonHai,Jabil

Google

Quanta

Quanta

HonHai

Quanta

Oracle

HonHai

Quanta,Wiwynn,SMCI,Dell

HonHai

Quanta,SMCI

Quanta

HonHai,Wiwynn,(SMCI),(Dell),(Inventec)

Dell

Wistron(L10)

Wistron(L10)

Wistron(L10)

(Compal)

Source:J.P.Morganestimates.

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Table4:AIserverODMmatrix-AMD’sGPUsystem

AMDGPUservers

MI300

MajorSecondary

MI400

MajorSecondary

Microsoft

ZTSystems

Quanta

Meta

Wiwynn

Wiwynn

Oracle

HonHai

HonHai

Source:J.P.Morganestimates.Note:Flex/InventecalsosuppliesCPUboardsfortheMI300/400system.

Table5:AIserverODMmatrix-ASICsystem

ASICservers

AI

CPU

Microsoft

Quanta

HonHai

Meta

Quanta

Amazon

T2:Wiwynn

T3:Wiwynn,Jabil,(HonHai)

HonHai,Jabil,Inventec(board)

Google

Celestica(L6-L11),Flex(L6-L11),HonHai(L10.5),Inventec(L6)

HonHai(L10),Inventec(CPUboard)

OpenAI

Celestica

Source:J.P.Morganestimates.

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CompaniesDiscussedinThisReport(allpricesinthisreportasofmarketcloseon22April2026,unlessotherwiseindicated)Celestica(CLS/$403.03[21April2026]/OW),HonHaiPrecision(2317.TW/NT$221.00/OW),QuantaComputerInc.(2382.TW/NT$335.00/OW),WiwynnCorp(6669.TW/NT$4,350.00/OW)

AnalystCertification:TheResearchAnalyst(s)denotedbyan“AC”onthecoverofthisreportcertifies(or,wheremultipleResearchAnalystsareprimarilyresponsibleforthisreport,theResearchAnalystdenotedbyan“AC”onthecoverorwithinthedocumentindividuallycertifies,

withrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheResearchAnalystcoversinthisresearch)that:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisreport

accuratelyreflecttheResearchAnalyst’spersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuers;and(2)nopartofanyofthe

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AllauthorsnamedwithinthisreportareResearchAnalystswhoproduceindependentresearchunlessotherwisespecified.InEurope,SectorSpecialists(SalesandTrading)maybeshownonthisreportascontactsbutarenotauthorsofthereportorpartoftheResearchDepartment.

ImportantDisclosures

·MarketMaker:J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofCelesticaorrelatedentities.

·MarketMaker/LiquidityProvider:J.P.Morganisamarketmakerand/orliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsof/relatedtoCelestica,HonHaiPrecision,QuantaComputerInc.,WiwynnCorporrelatedentities.

·ManagerorCo-manager:J.P.Morganactedasmanagerorco-managerinapublicofferingofsecuritiesorfinancialinstruments(assuchtermisdefinedinDirective2014/65/EU)of/forWiwynnCorporrelatedentitieswithinthepast12months.

BeneficialOwnership(1%ormore):J.P.Morganbeneficiallyowns1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofWiwynnCorporrelatedentities.

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s

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r

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DateRatingPrice($)PriceTarget

($)

125.0280.5692.14160.10173.37242.68301.82

381.94

166

105

115

170

225

295

360

410

OW

OW

OW

OW

OW

OW

OW

OW

21-Feb-2517-Apr-2525-Apr-2517-Jul-2529-Jul-2508-Sep-2528-Oct-2516-Apr-26

Date

Rating

Price(NT$)PriceTarget

(NT$)

12-May-23

OW

105.00

115

15-Aug-23

OW

110.00

120

15-Mar-24

OW

121.00

140

27-Mar-24

OW

142.00

170

15-May-24

OW

172.00

200

09-Jul-24

OW

226.50

260

14-Aug-24

OW

181.00

250

16-Mar-25

OW

170.00

225

15-May-25

OW

163.00

210

08-Aug-25

OW

194.50

230

15-Aug-25

OW

199.50

240

30-Sep-25

OW

219.50

270

13-Nov-25

OW

251.00

285

17-Mar-26

OW

216.50

270

Date

Rating

Price(NT$)PriceTarget

(NT$)

08-May-23

OW

89.60

106

11-May-23

OW

91.70

112

21-Jun-23

OW

145.00

170

13-Aug-23

OW

223.50

280

12-Nov-23

N

213.50

210

16-Mar-24

N

257.50

230

16-May-24

N

287.00

260

09-Jul-24

OW

319.50

380

28-Feb-25

OW

250.50

370

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DateRatingPrice(NT$)PriceTarget

10-May-2318-Jul-2308-Aug-2328-Feb-2408-May-2409-Jan-25

09-Aug-2516-Oct-2510-Dec-25

(NT$)

N

1115.00

1,135

N

1870.00

2,000

OW

1665.00

2,100

OW

2120.00

2,400

OW

2345.00

2,850

OW

2755.00

3,300

OW

2890.00

3,500

OW

3795.00

5,000

OW

4520.00

5,900

Thechart(s)showJ.P.Morgan'scontinuingcoverageofthestocks;thecurrentanalystsmayormaynothavecovereditovertheentireperiod.

J.P.Morganratingsordesignations:OW=Overweight,N=Neutral,UW=Underweight,NR=NotRated

ExplanationofEquityResearchRatings,DesignationsandAnalyst(s)CoverageUniverse:

J.P.Morganusesthefollowingratingsystem:Overweight(overthedurationofthepricetargetindicatedinthisreport,weexpectthisstockwilloutperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst’s,ortheResearchAnalyst’steam’s,coverageuniverse);Neutral(overthedurationofthepricetargetindicatedinthisreport,weexpectthisstockwillperforminlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst’s,ortheResearchAnalyst’steam’s,coverageuniverse);andUnderweight(overthedurationofthepricetargetindicatedin

thisreport,weexpectthisstockwillunderperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst’s,ortheResearchAnalyst’s

team’s,coverageuniverse.NRisNotRated.Inthiscase,J.P.Morganhasremovedtheratingand,ifapplicable,thepricetarget,forthisstock

becauseofeitheralackofasufficientfundamentalbasisorforlegal,regulatoryorpolicyreasons.Thepreviousratingand,ifapplicable,the

pricetarget,nolongershouldbereliedupon.AnNRdesignationisnotarecommendationorarating.Somestocksundercoveragehavearatingbutnopricetarget;inthesecases,weexpectthestockwilloutperform/performinline/underperformtheaveragetotalreturnofthestocksintheResearchAnalyst’s,ortheResearchAnalyst’steam’s,coverageuniverseoftherelevantdurationoftheregion.InourAsia(ex-Australiaandex-India)andU.K.small-andmid-capEquityResearch,eachstock’sexpectedtotalreturniscomparedtotheexpectedtotalreturnofabenchmarkcountrymarketindex,nottothoseResearchAnalysts’coverageuniverse.IfitdoesnotappearintheImportantDisclosuressectionofthisreport,thecertifyingResearchAnalyst’scoverageuniversecanbefoundonJ.P.Morgan’sResearchwebsite,

.

CoverageUniverse:Hung,Albert:ASPEEDTechnologyInc.(5274.TWO),ASUSTekComputer(2357.TW),CompalElectronics,Inc.

(2324.TW),DeltaElectronics,Inc.(2308.TW),Inventec(2356.TW),LenovoGroupLimited(0992)(0992.HK),Lotes(3533.TW),Micro-StarInternationalCo.,Ltd.(2377.TW),PegatronCorp(4938.TW),QuantaComputerInc.(2382.TW),VNETGroup(VNET),WistronCorporation(3231.TW),WiwynnCorp(6669.TW)Chatterjee,Samik:Amphenol(APH),Apple(AAPL),Arista(ANET),CDW(CDW),Calix(CALX),Celestica(CLS),Ciena(CIEN),Cisco(CSCO),CoherentCorp(COHR),Corning(GLW),DellTechnologies(DELL),Everpure(P),F5Inc

(FFIV),Fabrinet(FN),FlexLtd(FLEX),HPInc(HPQ),HewlettPackardEnterprise(HPE),IngramMicro(INGM),JabilInc(JBL),KeysightTechnologies(KEYS),Lumentum(LITE),Mobileye(MBLY),NetApp,Inc.(NTAP),Nutanix(NTNX),Qualcomm(QCOM),Sanmina

(SANM),Seagate(STX),SuperMicro(SMCI),TEConnectivity(TEL),Teradyne(TER),VistanceNetworks(VISN),WesternDigital(WDC),WolfspeedInc(WOLF),XeroxHoldingsCorp(XRX)Hariharan,Gokul:ASETechnologyHoldingCoLtd(3711.TW),ASMPTLtd(0522)(0522.HK),AlchipTechnologies(3661.TW),ChipbondTechnology(6147.TWO),GDSHoldings(GDS),GUC(3443.TW),HonHaiPrecision(2317.TW),MediaTekInc.(2454.TW),NovatekMicroelectronicsCorp.(3034.TW),PowerchipSemiconductorManufacturingCorp.

(6770.TWO),SMIC(0981)(0981.HK),SiliconMotion(SIMO),TSMC(2330.TW),UMC(2303.TW),VanguardInternationalSemiconductorCorp.(5347.TWO),Xiaomi(1810)(1810.HK)

J.P.MorganEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofApril04,2026

Overweight

(buy)

Neutral

(hold)

Underweight

(sell)

J.P.MorganGlobalEquityResearchCoverage*

51%

37%

12%

IBclients**

83%

79%

74%

JPMSEquityResearchCoverage*

49%

39%

13%

IBclients**

94%

93%

85%

*Pleasenotethatthepercentagesmaynotaddto100%becauseofrounding.

**Percentageofsubjectcompanieswithineachofthe"buy,""hold"and"sell"categoriesforwhichJ.P.Morganhasprovided

7

investmentbankingserviceswithintheprevious12months.

ForpurposesofFINRAratingsdistributionrulesonly,ourOverweightratingfallsintoabuyratingcategory;ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory;andourUnderweightratingfallsintoasellratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Thisinformationiscurrentasoftheendofthemostrecentcalendarquarter.

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,

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