2026年全球能源和材料展望

GlobalEnergy&MaterialsOutlook2026

Modelinggrowth,buildrates,andresourceconstraintshelpsshedlightontheopportunitiesandrisksahead.

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BAIN&COMPANY

Report

GlobalEnergyandMaterialsOutlook2026

Modelinggrowth,buildrates,andresourceconstraintshelpsshedlightontheopportunitiesandrisksahead.

ByAlasdairRobbie,GrantDougans,BrianMurphy,DayleNel,KateRamsey,PeterMeijer,andJamesNixon

19minread

AtaGlance

.Threescenariosfor2040,groundedineconomic,physical,and

engineeringrealities,helpexecutivesidentifyrisks,opportunities,andno-regretsmoves.

.Bain’sIntersectSMmodelshowselectricitydemandandrenewablesrisewhilefossilfuelspersist.Theworldwarms2.1degreesCelsiusto2.9

degreesCelsiusby2100.

.Supplyofgas/liquefiednaturalgas,nuclear,minerals,andsustainablefuelswilldependonregion,policy,andcost,withbigswingspossible.

.Understandinglocalmarkets,planningforadaptability,andbuildingresiliencewillhelpcompaniesfindopportunitiesandnavigatewithconvictioninanuncertainfuture.

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Thefundamentalsendure

Thepastfiveyearshavetestedassumptionsaboutglobalenergyandmaterialsmarkets.Supplychainshocks,ashiftingESGmovement,andtwowarswith

significantimpactonenergyflowshaveheighteneduncertaintyfor

executives:Howfastaremarketsgrowing,andhowispolicyshapingthem?Wherearedemandandmarginpoolsmoving?Whatsupplybottleneckswillshapenewdevelopments?Wheretoinvest,andwhen?

ThatuncertaintyonlyreaffirmsBain’slong-standingviewofthe

fundamentals:EnergydemandriseswithGDP,populationgrowth,and

industrialactivity.Thesystem’sabilitytomeetdemandisconstrainedbythephysicalandengineeringrealitiesofwhatcanbebuilt,howfastitcanbebuilt,andtheavailabilityofmaterials,capital,andenergyresources.Policymakersaimtoimprovestandardsofliving,butlowestcostremainsthedeciding

factor,makingsustainedinvestmentmoredifficult.

Thosefundamentalsmeaneffortstosolvethe

dualchallenge

—theworld

needsmoreenergyevenasittransitionstoalowercarbonfootprint—willbeunevenand,insomescenarios,messy.Acrossindustries,thebestdecisionsaboutenergytransitionpathwaysandvaluecreationwillbebasedon

plausibleoutcomesthataregroundedinmarketdata,physicalrealities,technologydevelopment,andtradedynamics.

2040:Threefuturesforthetransition

Wemaintainthreestandingglobalscenariosthrough2040,modeledand

refreshedregularlyusingIntersect℠,Bain’sproprietaryeconomicmodelingcapability.Eachscenariodescribesarealisticanddistinctpathfromtoday,excludingthestill-unfoldingeffectsfromthewarinIran.

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Totalenergydemandin2040andthemostpragmaticsupplymixthatcan

deliveritofferafirstreadoneachofthesethreefutures.Beyondthat,acloserlookshowswhatremainsconsistentacrossscenariosandwherethepaths

diverge,sometimessharply,shapingwhereopportunityandriskwillconcentrate.

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Acrossallthreescenarios,industryandbuildingsaccountformorethan60%ofthetotaldemandthrough2040.Primaryenergysupplycontinuestogrowtomeetthisdemandunderthefirsttwoscenarios,butitstallsinthelow-carbonscalescenario.

•Perpetuatepresentdynamics:Fossilsupplyremains72%ofglobalenergysupplyby2040.

•Divergentpathways:Fossilsupplydeclinesto67%by2040.

•Low-carbonscale:Fossilsupplyfallsto52%by2040.

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Ineverycase,fossilsupplyremainsasignificantshareoftotalsupply,growingundertheperpetuatepresentdynamicsanddivergentpathwaysscenarios.Itsshareoftotalsupplydeclinessharplyonlyinthelow-carbonscalescenarioasaresultofgreaterelectrificationandhigherlevelsofefficiency.

Areasofconviction

Ouranalysisfindsthatcertainoutcomesholdineveryscenario:continued

warming,surgingelectricitydemand,andresilientfossilfueldemandevenasrenewablesgainshare.Forexecutives,theseconsistenciespointtono-regretsmovesthatshouldpayoffregardlessofwhichversionofthefuture

materializes.

Worldwarms2.1degreesCelsiusto2.9degreesCelsiusby2100.Eveninthemostcoordinateddecarbonizationscenario,climateimpactsaresevereand

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demandthatcompaniesallocatecapitaltoresiliencestrategies.Theeconomicandphysicalconsequencesineverycaseareserious:higherfrequencyof

extremeheat,peakloadstressontransmissionanddistributionsystemsduringthoseperiods,increasedwaterstress,infrastructureexposure,anddamagetohumanhealthandqualityoflife.

Notes:Carbondioxide(CO2)emissionsincludeemissionsfromfossilfuelcombustion,industrialprocesses,andflaring;warmingestimateisadirectionalindicationoftheglobalriseintemperatureby2100vs.preindustriallevels

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios,IPCCSixthAssessmentReport;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)

WorldEnergyOutlookandWorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Electricitydemandsurges.Underallthreescenarios,electricitydemand

rises40%to70%by2040,andelectricitybecomesalargershareoffinal

energyconsumption.Systemefficiencyimproves,buttotalelectricitydemandstillrisessubstantiallywithpopulationandGDPgrowth.

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Note:Electricitydemandreferstototalfinalconsumption

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

AIanddatacentersareattractingattentiontodayasarapidlygrowingsourceofelectricitydemand,buttheyrepresentonlyasmallportionoftotaldemandgrowthoverthisperiod.Transportelectrificationalsogrowsquickly,fromlessthan3%ofcurrentglobaldemandtodayto7%to9%by2040,dependingonthescenario.

Butthelargestcumulativeincreaseinelectricityconsumptionacrosssectorswon’tcomefromserversorcars;itwillcomefromhomes.Air-conditioning

loadinresidentialbuildingswillrisesharplyascoolingexpandsindevelopingcountries,whileheatpumpsreplacegasheating.Residentialbuildings—alongwithsteady,similarincreasesinindustrialdemand—accountforthelargest

shareofoverallgrowth.

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Note:Electricitydemandreferstototalfinalconsumption

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Renewablescontinuetoscale.Acrossallthreescenarios,solarandwindincreasetheirshareofthegenerationmixbythreetimestoseventimes,growingmuchfasterthanallothersourcesandbecomingthelowest-costoptioninmanymarkets.Inallthreescenarios,solarmakesupmostoftheincreaseinrenewableelectricitygeneration.

Renewablesalreadyarelikelytoovertakecoalbytheendofthisyearasthelargestsourceofelectricitygeneration,andinthedivergentpathways

scenario,renewablegenerationwillmakeupmorethan50%ofallpowerby2036.

Thecostofrenewablesandfirmingtechnologiessuchasbatterystoragewillcontinuetodecline.Whererenewablesareconstrainedfromscalingfurtherorfaster,theprimarybarriersarenottechnologicalviabilitybutinterconnectiondelays,dispatchabilityrequirements,transformerandtransmissionlead

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times,mineralsupplychains,capitalmobilization,andshortagesofskilledlabor.

Notes:Renewablegenerationincludessolar,wind,hydropower,bioenergy,andgeothermalenergy

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Oildemandholds.Noneofourscenariossuggestanendtooildemandasweknowittoday.Itgrowsto108millionbarrelsperday(Mb/d)by2040inour

perpetuatepresentdynamicsscenarioandplateausat97Mb/dindivergent

pathways.Onlyinourlow-carbonscalescenariodoesitdeclineto80Mb/d.Aselectricvehiclesflattenorslowroadfueldemand,thelong-termtrajectoryofoildemandwilldependonpetrochemicalsandheavytransport:

petrochemicalfeedstocks(16Mb/dto19Mb/d),aviation(8Mb/dto10Mb/d),shipping(2Mb/dto6Mb/d),andfreight.

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Coaldeclines.Ascheaperalternativesdisplaceagingcoalpowerfacilities,

thermalcoaldemanddeclinesacrossallthreeofourscenarios.ItcontinuestoplayaroleinkeyregionssuchasChinaandIndia.Demandformetallurgicalcoalforindustrialironandsteelproductionpersistsintothelongerterm.

China,currentlytheworld’slargestcoalconsumer,leadsthereductionincoaluseasitworkstoimproveairqualityandmeetemissionsgoals.Itwillaccountformorethan60%oftheglobaldeclineincoaluseby2040.

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Chinasetsthestage.Theworld’slargestemitterofgreenhousegasesisalsoitssinglelargestdecarbonizationengine,propelledbyenergysecurity,

industrialstrategy,andexecutionspeedasmuchasbyclimateambition.

Chinaleadsinlowest-costproductionofrenewables,andalthoughitscoalemissionswillremainsignificant,itislikelytoaccountforaboutmorethan30%ofglobalsolarandwindgenerationby2040.

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Areasofuncertainty

Ourmodelalsorevealsinconsistencies,dependingonhoweachscenario

balancespolicy,costs,macroeconomicassumptions,andtradedynamics.Forstrategicdecisionmakers,theseuncertaintiesrevealwherethebiggest

opportunities(orrisks)maybeconcentrated.

Nuclearmaintainsorgrowsshare.Nuclearcapacitygrowsacrossallofourscenariosandcompeteswithothergridfirmingtechnologies(batteries,

pumpedhydrostorage,gas).Formostcountries,existingnuclearistheleastexpensivesourceofpower.Newnuclearconstruction,bycontrast,isamongthemostexpensive,yetitstillcomparesfavorablywithmorevariable

renewableswhentheirsystemexpensesarefactoredintototalelectricitycost.Inaworldwithgrowingintermittentrenewables,nuclearoffersthegrida

dispatchable,low-carbonbaseload.

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Hereagain,thefundamentalsofregionaleconomics,policyprioritization,

technologydevelopment,andlowestcostwilldeterminehowmuchisbuilt.Ifsmallandadvancedmodularreactorsbecomelessexpensive,nuclearcouldtakesharefromotherfirmpowersources.Morethan30countrieshave

pledgedtotriplenuclearcapacityby2050,andglobalnuclearinvestmentisforecasttoreach$2.2trillionoverthenext25years,accordingtoMorgan

StanleyResearch.

Naturalgasisnotaguaranteedwinner.Gassitsattheheartofseveraltrade-offs:asaflexiblepowersource,anindustrialfuelandfeedstock,and,for

countriesdependentonliquefiednaturalgas(LNG),agrowingsecurity

exposure.Thatmakesgashighlysensitivetomacroconditions,national

policychoices,andthecostofalternativessuchasstorage-enabledrenewablesornuclear.Inourmodeling,gasdemandswingsbyroughly20%inboth

directionsacrossscenarios.Gasdemandgrowsinperpetuatepresent

dynamicsanddivergentpathways,inwhichgridsrelymoreongasfor

flexibilityasrenewablesplusstoragescaleslowly.Inlow-carbonscale,it

taperssoonerascleanfirmoptionsexpandandpolicytightens.Stricterpolicyalsoincreasestheriskofstrandedorunderutilizedassetsbywideningthe

spreadbetweenlower-cost,lower-emissionsgasandhigher-costsupply.

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Criticalmineralscreatesupplychainrisk.Cleanenergy,electricvehicles,anddefensesystemsalldependonmanyofthesamecriticalminerals.Whilecopper,iron,lithium,manganese,cobalt,graphite,andaluminumare

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plentiful,theyarehighlyconcentratedgeographically.Asaresult,refining,processing,andmanufacturingbecomechokepoints,andsupplychains

becomenationalsecurity,trade,andindustrialpolicyflashpoints,especiallyintheperpetuatepresentdynamicsordivergentpathwaysscenarios.Underourdivergentpathwaysscenarioinparticular,gapsbetweensupplyand

demandemergeinthecomingdecade.

•Globalcopperdemandgrowssteadily,butsupplycouldfallafter2030,creatingriskofgaps.

•Short-termgrowthinnickellimitssupplyriskuntilbatterydemandacceleratesafter2030.

•Rapidsupplygrowthinlithiumminimizesriskbutislikelytoplateau;electricvehiclescreatelong-termdemandshift.

•Incobalt,flatgrowthandstrongdemandcreatesupplyrisksthatmaybeoffsetasgeopoliticaluncertaintyandevolvingbatterychemistrylimituse.

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios,BainMiningPractice;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)World

EnergyOutlookandWorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios,BainMiningPractice;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)World

EnergyOutlookandWorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios,BainMiningPractice;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)World

EnergyOutlookandWorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

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Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios,BainMiningPractice;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)World

EnergyOutlookandWorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Sustainablefuelswillprevailinsomeregions.E-fueltargetsintheEUandshort-termbiofuelmandatesinIndiaareprovidingtailwindsforsustainablefueladoption.Yete-fuelsandbio-basedfuelsarelikelytoscalemorenarrowlythanexpectedaselectrificationmovesfasterinroadtransport.Theyremaincriticalfordecarbonizingaviationandmaritimeshipping,inwhich

electrificationpotentialislimited,butstillrequiresignificantdevelopmenttoreachscaleinthosesectors.

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Note:HistoricalsustainablefuelsdemandfortransportationreflectsbiofuelandwoodgivenH2’snascency

Sources:ProjectiondatabasedonBainIntersectscenarios;historicaldatabasedonIEAdatafromtheIEA(2025)WorldEnergyOutlookand

WorldEnergyBalances,

/data-and-statistics

,allrightsreserved,asmodifiedbyBain&Company

Preparenow,keeptesting

Evensmallshiftsinpolicy,capitalcosts,traderules,andtechnologyadoptioncanchangewhichcompaniesgrowandwhichassetsgetbuilt,getused,and

payoff.Eachcompanyneedstocontinuouslytestitsownpredictionsagainstmultiplefutures.Butacrossthethreescenarioswemodeled,fivelessons

emerge.

Getreadyforthebuild.Powerdemandwillrise,andelectrificationwill

reshapeend-usedemand.Thegridneeds