2026年全球房地产展望：引领房地产行业复苏之路研究报告（英文版）-

2026REALESTATEOUTLOOK

Navigatingthe

realestateresurgence

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

NOTFDICINSURED|NOBANKGUARANTEE|MAYLOSEVALUE

Thepainfulresetofprivate

realestateseemstobeinthe

rearviewmirror,andweexpect2026tobeagoodvintagefor

realestateinvestment.Values

havestabilized,totalreturns

arepositiveinmostmarkets

andlimitednewconstruction

activitybodeswellformedium-termfundamentals.Shiftsin

geopolitics,trade,monetary

andfiscalpolicyaroundthe

globemaycreateheadwindsandtailwindsforvarioussectorsandgeographies,butthemegatrendsthatunderpinourinvestmentswillplayoutoverdecades.

Ridingtherealestaterecovery

Realestateturnedthecornerin2025,andweexpecttherecoverytocontinue

Globalreal

estatevalueshavebeenconsistentlynudginghigher

sincetheendof2024.

buildingmomentumin2026.Anupswinginvalues,afalloffinnewsupply(whichbodeswellforfundamentals)andincreasingdealvelocityareallcontributingtoabrighteryearahead.

Globalrealestatevalueshavebeenconsistentlynudginghighersincetheendof

2024,afterhavingreset16.2%frompeaktotrough1,andtotalreturnshavebeenpositiveforevenlongerthankstotheconsistentincomerealestateproduces

(Figure1).Thosepositivetotalreturnshavebeenexceptionallybroad-based—all21countriesintheMSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndexgeneratedpositivetotalreturnsineachavailablequarterof2025data(Figure2).

Overthecourseof2025,realestatetransactionvolumesbegantoreboundineachregion.Throughthethirdquarter,rollingannualtransactionvolumewasup16%inAsiaPacific,19%inEurope,and21%intheU.S.Forthefirsttimesince2022,

institutionalinvestorsineachglobalregionarebelowtheirtargetallocationtorealestate,providingadditionaldrypowderforacapitalmarketsrecovery.IntheU.S.,asofOctober,transactionpriceshadincreased4.2%year-over-yearwithallmajorpropertytypesexperiencingtransactionpricegainsoverthepriormonth,quarterandyear.Whiletherehasbeenaconsistentuptickincapitalmarketsactivity,bothpricingandtransactionsbroadlyremainbelowpre-correctionlevels,andweexpecttoseefurthergainstowardsnormalizationin2026.

Afalloffinconstructionactivityimprovestheoutlookfurther.Constructioncosts

remainelevatedthankstoaconfluenceofhighmaterialprices,expensivelaborandelevatedconstructionfinancingrates.Thesefactorshavesignificantlytemperednewconstructionstarts(Figure3),whichmeansinvestmentpropertieswillhaveless

competitionfromnewassetsintheyearsahead.Thisbodeswellforoccupancyandrentgainsoverthemedium-term,whichshouldfurtherbenefittheassetclass.

Unexpectedchallengescouldariseasaresultofanuncertaingeopoliticaland

economicbackdrop,butthisisnotnew.Asanassetclass,realestatehasbeen

substantiallyde-riskedduetothevaluecorrectionexperiencedbetween2022-

2024.Thisdoesnotmeanrealestateiswithoutrisk,butinvestorsshouldconsiderreallocatingtotheassetclassin2026iftheyhavenotalreadydoneso.Giventhebackdrop,however,webelievethereshouldbeafocusonnecessityrealestatewithmoreresilientdemographicallydrivendemanddrivers.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES

INTHEENDNOTES.1

Figure1:Globalquarterlytotalreturnshavebeenpositiveforsixquarters

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

-4%

-5%

IncomereturnCapitalgrowthTotalreturn

21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3

Source:MSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndex(Q32025dataasof5Dec2025);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

Figure2:Totalreturnsarepositiveglobally

IncomereturnCapitalgrowthTotalreturn

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

Luxembourg

Canada

Germany

CzechRepublic

U.S.

Poland

Finland

Belgium

Ireland

Sweden

U.K.

SouthKorea

Norway

Portugal

France

Italy

Australia

Japan

Netherlands

Spain

Denmark

Source:MSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndex(Q32025dataasof5Dec2025);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

2OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.3

Figure3:Quarterlydeliveriesasapercentofexistingstock(Q12017–Q42026)

HistoryForecast

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

17192123251719212325171921232517192123251719212325

MultifamilyIndustrialMedicalOfficeOfficeRetail

Source:CoStar(Q32025);Revista(Q32025),NuveenRealEstateResearch.

Globalopportunities

Globalrealestateappearstobeturningacorner.Inthethirdquarterof2025,all

49of49marketsproducedapositivetotalreturn2(Figure4).Theofficesector

remainedthemostchallengedglobally,butwecontinuetoseesignificantdispersionacrossgeographies.Betweenthethirdquarterin2024and2025,thetotalreturn

forGermanOfficewasnegative(-0.9%),whilethetotalreturnforNordicOfficewaspositive(7.6%),aspreadof850points.SouthKorea’slargestmarket,Seoul,hadavacancyrateofjust4.8%andrentalgrowthat6.7%year-over-yearasofthethirdquarter3.Thisexampledemonstratesthatrealestateisnotmonolithic;eachregion,countryandpropertysectorpresentsopportunitiesforinvestors.

Innovationcandriverealestatereturns

Weexpectsectorselectiontocontributelesstoperformancethanwehaveseenin

thepastcycle,soassetselectionandassetmanagementbecomemoresignificant

driversofreturn.Withthisinmind,artificialintelligence(AI)andenergytransitiontechnologiesareemergingaspowerfulcatalystsforrealestateperformancein2026.AIistransformingpropertyoperationsthroughbuildingautomation,enhanced

tenantexperiencesandunprecedenteddatacenterdemand,enablingcompressedoperatingcosts,morepredictableNOIandopportunitiesforoutperformance.

Meanwhile,theenergytransitioncreatesinvestmentopportunitiesasover10,900companieswithscience-basedtargetsdrivestrongoccupierdemandforgreen

buildings(Figure5),particularlyinEuropewheretherearerentalpremiumsof5-10%incertainmarkets.Thesetechnologicalinnovationsaren’tjustoperationalimprovements—they’rebecomingfrontlinedriversofvaluethatseparate

efficiencyleadersfromlaggardsacrossrealestateportfolios.

Weexpect

sectorselectiontocontributelesstoperformancethanwehaveseenin

thepastcycle,soassetselectionandassetmanagementbecomemore

significantdriversofreturn.

Figure4:Totalreturnsarepositiveinallmarketsegments

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

ResidentialIndustrialOfficeRetail

SouthKorea

Canada

U.S.

U.K.

Belgium/Lux

Canada

Japan

Germany

Germany

SouthernEurope

Canada

France

U.K.

U.S.

Netherlands

Germany

U.S.

Germany

Ireland

Cent/EEurope

Nordic

Ireland

Netherlands

Belgium/Lux

Belgium/Lux

France

Ireland

U.S.

SouthernEurope

France

Nordic

Canada

U.K.

France

Australia

Nordic

SouthernEurope

Cent/EEurope

Netherlands

Japan

Australia

Nordic

U.K.

Ireland

Australia

Singapore

SouthernEurope

Netherlands

Japan

Source:MSCIGlobalQuarterlyPropertyIndex(Q32025dataasof8Dec2025);NuveenRealEstateResearch.

Figure5:Sciencebasedtargetsinitiativealignedcompanies

10,949

9875

6957

4230

2253

746

1106

515

203

116

332

20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:SBTiTrendTracker,August2025.

PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

4OPINIONPIECE.

Sixpicksfor‘26’

Compellinginvestmentopportunities

persistacrossregionsandrisktolerances.Inthenear-term,webelieveinvestors

cancapitalizeonthefollowingsegmentsofthemarket.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.5

1

Lendershaveasolidfoundation

Thevaluationcorrectionandloan-to-value(LTV)reset

presentsanattractiveentrypointforinvestors.CREdebt

offersportfoliosriskmitigationbenefits,alignedwithits

positionatthebottomofthecapitalstack.CurrentCREdebtconditionsarecreatingnewopportunitiesforinvestorsto

furtherdiversifyfrompublicmarketuncertaintyandintoprivatemarkets.

IntheU.S.,thecontinuationoftheU.S.FederalReserve’s

(Fed)currentinterestratecycleshouldincreaselendingforcommercialrealestateandfurthersupportpropertyvalues,drivingadditionaldebtandequityinvestmentactivity.Thesefactorsmeancommercialrealestateremainswellpositionedforsolidperformance,especiallyinsectors,marketsand

propertieslesssensitivetochangingpolicyandeconomicenvironments.

ConditionsinEuropearealsoprovidingattractive

opportunitiesforinvestors.Therepricinghasbeenadrivingforceforopportunitiesintheregion.Whileofficeshavefacedheadwinds,thesectormayhavereachedabottomwithearlystabilizationemerging.Industrialandlogisticsproperties

continuedemonstratingresilience,supportedbye-commercegrowthandsupplychainreconfiguration.Highstreetretailis

showingselectiverecoveryinprimelocationswithstrongfoottraffic.PrimeassetsacrossEuropehavecorrectedby20-25%.4Divergenceofassetperformancewithinsectorsiscreating

opportunitiesfordiscerninglenderswhocanidentifyqualityunderlyingassetsatfavorableentrypoints.

Realestatedebtnowdeliversyieldscomparabletohigh-yieldcorporatebondsbutwithsuperiorcollateralbackingthroughphysicalassets.Unliketherapidlygrowingprivatecorporatecreditmarket,whereU.S.defaultrateshaveclimbedto5.7%,5commercialrealestatedebtdemonstrateslowervolatility

whilemaintainingsimilarreturnstoriskierassetclasses.

Recoveryratesinrealestatedebtconsistentlyexceed80%,

evenduringmajormarketshocks(Figure6).6TheconditionsCREdebtareoperatingunderarecreatingnewopportunities,supportinginvestorsseekingtofurtherdiversifyawayfrom

publicmarketsuncertainty,whilealsoworkingtodiversify

allocationstoprivatemarkets.Theassetclassbenefitsfrom

lowcorrelationwithtraditionalinvestments,offeringeffectiveportfoliodiversification.Asbanksretreatfromlending

duetoBaselIIIregulations,alternativelenderscontinuetoexpandmarketshare,creatingadiverseandresilientlendingenvironment.

Figure6:Realestatehasshownresilienceacrossextrememarketconditions

PrivaterealestatedebtPrivatesmallenterprisedebt

86%

81%

82%

74%

69%

66%

73%

58%

Overall2000-2023Covid2020-2021GFC2008-2009Otheryears

Source:GCDBankdata,July2025

PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

6OPINIONPIECE.

2

Agingpopulationpropellinghealthcaredemand

Seniorsspend

threetimesmoreonhealthcarethanyoungercohorts,creatingsustainedtailwinds.

DemographicandstructuralshiftsaredrivingopportunitiesinU.S.healthcare

realestate.Demandformedicaloutpatientbuildings(MOBs)isaccelerating,withhealthcarespendingexceedingone-sixthofU.S.GDPandtheseniorpopulation

projectedtogrow68%by2040.7Seniorsspendthreetimesmoreonhealthcarethanyoungercohorts,8creatingsustainedtailwinds.

Afundamentalshiftfromhospitaltooutpatientcareisunderway;hospital

admissionshavedeclined10%whileoutpatientvisitssurged13%overthepast

decade(Figure7).9Unliketraditionalofficepropertiessufferingfromwork-from-hometrends,medicalvisitsremainnecessarilyin-person,withMOBvacancyratesat7.4%versus13.9%fortraditionaloffice,a650bpsspread.10

IntheAPACregion,Australiaisemergingaheadofbecomingasuper-agedsocietyby2035(20%+aged65+)11andJapan’sgrowingnumberofsingleelderlyhouseholdssupportsseniorlivingdemand.

Withmorethanaquarterofthepopulationaged75andaboveby2040,the

opportunitytoprovidewell-builtandmanagedseniorhousinghomesinJapanisimmense.Atlessthan4%fill-rate,demandwillcontinuetooutpacesupply,especiallyasthenumberofsingleelderlyhouseholdsalsocontinuestogrow.

Figure7:Outpatientcaresurgesashospitaladmissionsandsurgeriesdecline

HospitaladmissionsHospitalsurgeriesOutpatientvisitsOutpatientsurgeries

Index:Growthofhospitalsvs.outpatient:

admissions/visitsandsurgeries(1995=100)

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

1995200020052010201520202023

Source:NuveenRealEstate;AmericanHospitalAssociation,June2025

Note:Dataisupdatedthroughyear-end2023.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.7

8OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

3

Demographicshiftsmakelivingsectorfavorable

Europe’sliving

sectorisbuoyedbyrecordinvestmentandstrong

performance,ashousingprices

outpaceincomesandsupportrisingrentaldemand.

Thegloballivingsectorcontinuestodrawrobustinvestorinterest,withtheU.S.,EuropeandAPACfacinguniqueopportunitiesandchallenges.

U.S.apartmentsectorfundamentalsarestrengtheningasnewsupplygrowth

moderatesandpastpeakdeliveriesgivewaytoabsorption.Demandispositive

acrossmajormarkets,yethighersupplyinselectcitiesmaintainspressureonrentgrowth.Single-familyrentals,althoughseeingdeceleratedgrowthduetogreaterhousingstock,remainpositionedforexpansiondrivenbydemographics,ongoingsuburbanmigrationandmillennialrentersfacingaffordabilityconstraintsin

homeownership.Thesector’sresilienceandfutureoutlookareenhancedbylong-termdemandtailwinds,thoughnavigatingsupplydynamicsandrentpressurewillbeakeychallenge.

Europe’slivingsectorisbuoyedbyrecordinvestmentandstrongperformance,ashousingpricesoutpaceincomesandsupportrisingrentaldemand.SouthernandCentralnationslikePortugal,Spain,andEasternEuropeancountriesleadhousepriceincreases,whilerentalgrowthissupportedbyaffordabilitychallengesandpersistentsupplyshortage.Asconstructionandpermitactivitystartstorecover,near-termsupplyremainslimited,bolsteringrent.Structuraldivergencebetweenhouseandrentpricegrowthcreatesopportunitiesforbuild-to-rentstrategies.

Investorappetiteshowslittlesignsofslowing;thesectoraccountsforarisingshareofcommercialrealestateallocations.However,stretchedaffordabilityandtight

housingsupplypresentongoingrisksanddisruptionpotential.

APACmarketsdemonstratesteadyresilience,withTokyoattheforefrontdueto

strongdomesticandinternationalmigrationandrecreationaladvantages.Strong

leasedemandisdrivingrentshigher,promptingstrategicassetmanagementand

migrationtooutercitywards.Newenergystandardsandconstrainedmultifamilysupplyfurthersupportrentalgrowth.Australiafacessimilarsupplychallenges,

withresidentialapprovals24%belowtherequired20,000monthlyunitsneeded

fornationaltargets,ensuringalandlord-friendlyenvironmentdespitemoderatedrentalgrowth.InSouthKorea,ashiftfromJeonsedepositstomonthlyrentals

reflectschangingconsumerpreferences,expandingopportunitiesforwell-managedrentalassets.AcrossAPAC,affordability,supplyanddemandimbalancesand

regulatoryshiftscombinetosustainstrongrentaldemand.

Together,thesetrendspositionthelivingsectorforcontinuedglobal

growth,albeitwithregionalnuancesinsupplyconstraints,affordabilityandinvestmentmomentum.

4

EuropeandAPACprovideattractiveconditionsforstudentliving

Purpose-builtstudentaccommodation(PBSA)isfacingshiftingdynamicsacrossEuropeandAPAC,shapedbylongtermtrends.

InEurope,thelandscapeisevolvingrapidlyduetochangesininternationalstudentmobility.Overthepast18months,majoreducationdestinationssuchasCanada,

AustraliaandtheU.S.haveintroducedrestrictivevisaandimmigrationpolicies,

resultinginsignificantdeclinesininternationalstudentnumbers.Canadaandthe

U.S.sawstudentvisaissuanceplummetby47%and12%year-on-year.Yet,theU.K.rebounded,demonstratinga27%uptickasspecificrestrictionseased.Europehas

emergedastheprimarybeneficiaryofthesepolicyshifts,withcountriesincluding

Germany,Italy,theNetherlands,FranceandSwedennowabsorbingalargershareofinternationalenrolment.High-growthmarketssuchasFrance,Austria,IrelandandSpainareseeingyear-on-yearincreasesof20-30%ininternationalstudentinterest.

Europebenefitsfromredirectedinternationalstudentdemand,providingsignificanttailwindsforPBSAinvestmentandgrowthintheshort-to-mediumterm.Europeanmarketsarewell-positionedtocapitalizeonthesemacrochanges,althoughthefullimpactofrestrictiveglobalpoliciesisyettobeseen.

APACoffersacontrastingbutequallycompellingsetoffundamentals.Australia’sstudenthousingsectorstandsoutforitsresilience,markedbyan11%increaseininternationalstudentenrollmentyear-to-date.Thisdemandhaspromptednew

PBSAdevelopment,butscheduledsupplyinthenexttwoyearsremainsinsufficienttobridgethegap,especiallyincitieslikeSydneyandMelbourne,whereprovisionratesareexpectedtostaybelow45%.

Challengesinbothregionsincludemanagingregulatoryrisksandsupply

constraints.InEurope,themedium-termoutlookdependsonhownew

immigrationrulesevolve,whileAPACmustcopewithchronicundersupplydespiteinvestorappetite.

High-growth

marketssuchasFrance,Austria,IrelandandSpainareseeingyear-on-yearincreasesof20-30%in

international

studentinterest.

OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES

INTHEENDNOTES.9

10OPINIONPIECE.PLEASESEEIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESINTHEENDNOTES.

5

Necessityretailprovesresilient

Ourglobalresearchrevealsthreefundamentalcharacteristicsofsuccessfulnecessityretailinvestments:strategiclocationsindemographicallyfavorableareas,abilitytoattractbest-in-classtenantsandsustainabletrafficpatternsfrommarket

dominance.Post-pandemicshifts,includingsuburbanization,remoteworkadoptionandvalue-seekingbehavior,are

strengtheningneighborhoodcentersthatsupportfrequentvisitsandmulti-purposeshoppingtrips.

Marketfundamentalsremainrobustacrossregions.Inthe

U.S.,grocery-anchoredstripcentersmaintainoccupancyrates4%higherthannon-anchoredcounterparts,whilelimited

newsupply(just0.2%ofinventory)supportsrentgrowth.12

Europeanretailparksdeliver6%averageincomereturns

withdiversifiedtenantmixesspanninggrocery,homegoodsandessentialservices.13AsiaPacificmarkets,particularly

Australia’seastcoastcities,offercompellingyieldsof6-7%

supportedbystrongpopulationgrowthprojections.14

Thedigital-physicalintegrationhasevolvedfromthreatto

opportunity,withrisinge-commercefulfillmentcostsmaking

in-storecollectionincreasinglycost-effective.Combined

withminimaldevelopmentpipelinesglobally(Figure8),

attractiveyieldspreadsanddefensiveincomecharacteristics,necessityretailpresentscompellingrisk-adjustedreturnsforinstitutionalinvestors.

Figure8:Theretaildevelopmentpipelinehasneverbeenthismeasured

n

10-yearhistory(2015–2024)n5-yearhistory(2020–2024)n5-yearforecast(2025–2030)

25%

Retailsectordevelopment

(%ofinventory)

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

NeighborhoodPowerStripRetail

Park

HongTokyoKong

ShoppingSydneyMelbourneBrisbaneSingaporeCenter

UNITEDSTATESEUROPEASIA–PACIFICSHOPPINGCENTRE

Source:U.S.CoStar,dataasof4Q25.EuropePMA,datasetisPanEuropean16marketaverage&includesallpipelineunderconstructiondataasof4Q25.Asia-PacificJLL,CBRE,RatingandValuationDepartment,JapanCouncilofShoppingCenters,&NuveenRealEstate,dataasof4Q25.

6

Lightindustrialcapitalizesontailwinds

There-emergenceoftradebarriersandotherdisruptions

tointernationaltrademaysignificantlyaltertheindustria