2026年高电压：全球工业电气化潜力报告（英文版）

ENVIRONMENTALCHANGEINSTITUTE•UNIVERSITYOFOXFORD

HighVoltage

Theglobalpotentialforindustrialelectrification

CassandraEtter-WenzelandJanRosenowApril2026

Partners:EMBER;EnergyInnovationPolicy&TechnologyLLC;NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil

C

2

Contents

Executivesummary

Introduction

6

1

Whyindustrialelectrification?

8

2

Theglobalpotentialofelectrification

10

2.1

Meta-reviewofexistingbottom-upstudies

10

2.2

Globalpotentialfromclimatemodels(1,600+scenarios)

11

3

Impactoncarbonemissionsreduction

18

4

Frompotentialtopractice

20

4.1

Keybarriers

20

4.2

Policyprioritiestounlockhighelectrificationpotential

22

Conclusions

23

Annex:Methodology

25

1

Overview

25

2

Scenariodataandsources

25

3

Variableselectionandharmonization

26

4

ConstructionofElectrificationShares

27

5

Limitationsandnextsteps

28

References

29

C

WHYTHISMATTERSNOW

Industrialenergysecurityinaneraofrepeatedpriceshocks

Globalindustryisoperatinginanenvironmentofrecurringfossilfuelpriceshocks.The2022gascrisisforcedfactoryclosuresandproductionshiftsacrossEuropeandbeyond,withmanyenergy-intensivesectorsyettofullyrecover.Morerecently,tensionsaroundtheStraitofHormuzhaveagainpushedupoilandgasprices,renewingpressureonindustrialproducers.

Theimpactofthesepriceshocksisglobal.Whilstthe2022crisiswasfeltmostsharplyinEurope,Asiaexperiencedasurgeinliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)pricesthatledtofactoryshutdownsinPakistanandBangladeshandraisedinputcostsformanufacturersinJapanandSouthKorea.TheeffectsofthecurrentenergycrisisaremostpronouncedwhenitcomestotheAsianeconomyandindustrialbase.ThelatestpriceincreaseslinkedtoHormuzareonceagainfeedingthroughintoindustrialenergycostsacrossenergy-importingeconomies.

Theseepisodesarenotisolatedeventsbutreflectastructuralfeatureoffossilfuelmarkets:exposuretogeopoliticaldisruptionandpricevolatility.Industry—whichstillreliespredominantlyonfossilfuelsforprocessheat—isparticularlyexposed.

Electrificationoffersastructuralresponsetothisrisk.Byshiftingindustrialenergydemandfrominternationallytradedfossilfuelstodomesticallygener-atedelectricity,itcanreduceexposuretopriceshockswhileenablingdeepemissionsreductions.

Executivesummary

buthowfast.

Industrystandsataturningpoint.Thequestionisnotwhethertoelectrify—

KEYMETRICS

90%

Technicalceilingfromengineeringstudies

Ofindustrialenergydemand

couldtheoreticallybeelectrifiedwithexistingandemergingtech-nologies.

51%

Medianforhigh-

ambitionpathways

Medianoutcomeacrosshigh-electrificationscenarios—

achievablewithstrongpolicy.

84%

Upper-boundpotentialby2050

Underthemostambitiouspolicyscenariosfromtheglobalmodelsensemble.

Industrialelectrificationcanreshapeindustrialemis-sionstrajectories,reduceenergyimportdependencyandimproveresiliencetoenergypricevolatility.En-gineeringstudiesshowthatupto90%ofindustrialenergydemandcouldultimatelybeelectrifiedwithexistingandemergingtechnologies.

Globalscenariomodellingcorroboratesthisceiling.Underthemostambitiousclimatepathways,indus-trialelectrificationreachesapproximately85%by2050—representingtheupperlimitofcurrentmod-ellingunderthemostenablingassumptions.Withtherightpolicysupportinplace,themedianofhigh-ambitionscenariospointstoaround51%by2050.Takentogether,twoindependentlinesofevidenceconvergeonthesameconclusion:thetechnicalpotentialforwidespreadindustrialelectri-ficationexists;thequestioniswhetherpolicyactsfastenoughtorealiseit.

Thismattersbecauseindustryaccountsfor~30%ofglobalCO2emissions,andcombustionforpro-cessheatremainsthedominantsource,stillrelyingmostlyonfossilfuels.Electrificationreplacesfossil

fuelswithzeroandlow-carbonelectricity,unlockingdeeperdecarbonisationpathways.

TheongoingenergycrisisthatstartedinFebruary2026demonstrateshowrelyingonfossilfuelsforindustrialprocessesisariskystrategyleavingindus-trialfacilitiesexposedtointernationalenergypricevolatilityandsupplyconstraints.Electrificationcanimproveindustrialenergysecurity.

Thisreportisnotaforecastofwhatwillhappenautomatically.Itisanassessmentofwhatisdemon-strablyachievablewithincurrentmodellingframe-worksandemergingtechnologiesunderconditionsofstrongclimateambition,rapidpower-sectordecar-bonisation,andsustainedpolicysupport.

Thecorepolicymessageisthatwemustactnowtoensurewemeettheseemissionsreductiongoals.Intheglobalscenarioensembles,theelectri-ficationlevelsofambitiouspathwaysin2050reachamedianof~51%andamuchhigheruppertail.Thatspreadreflectsenablingconditions,nottechnicalceilings.Scenariosattheupperendconsistentlycombineearlyandlarge-scaleinfrastructureinvest-ment,rapiddeploymentofelectricprocesstechnolo-

HighVoltageExecutivesummary

3

gies(includinghigh-temperatureapplications),andpolicyframeworksthatreduceriskoverlongindus-trialassetlifetimes.

Crucially,thepathwaytoveryhighelectrifica-tionisshapedbymid-century.By2050,high-electrificationscenariosarealreadyfaraheadoftheglobalmedian,indicatingthatdecisionstakeninthe2020sand2030songrids,electricitypricing,industrialretrofits,andearlydeploymentslargelydeterminewhetherindustryapproachesthe~90%electrificationceilinglaterinthecentury.Highelectri-ficationisthereforebestunderstoodastheoutcomeofdeliberate,cumulativepolicyaction,notalate-centuryadjustment.

Thisreportassessesthemaximumplausibleglobalpotentialforindustrialelectrification.It

doesnotpredictthemostlikelypathway;butidenti-fiesanupperboundthatisdemonstrablyachievablebasedoncurrentglobalmodellingandrecentbottom-upengineeringevidence,underconditionsofstrongclimateambition,rapidpower-sectordecarbonisa-tion,andsupportiveindustrialpolicy.Theanalysissynthesisestwocomplementaryevidencestreams:

1.bottom-upengineeringandsectorstudiesthatestimatetechnicalandtechno-economicelectrifi-cationpotentialacrossregionsandsubsectors;and

2.anensembleof1,600+globalmitigationsce-nariosfromintegratedassessmentandenergy-systemmodelsthatreportindustrialfinalenergyuse.

KEYINSIGHT

Thecorepolicymessageisthatwemustactnowtoensurewemeettheseemissionsreductiongoals.Intheglobalscenarioensembles,theelectrificationlevelsofambitiouspathwaysin2050reachamedianof~51%andamuchhigheruppertail.Thatspreadreflectsenablingconditions,nottechnicalceilings.Scenariosattheupperendconsistentlycombineearlyandlarge-scaleinfras-tructureinvestment,rapiddeploymentofelectricprocesstechnologies(includinghigh-temperatureapplications),andpolicyframeworksthatreduceriskoverlongindustrialassetlifetimes.

Keyfindingsinclude:

•Existingtechnologiescandelivermeaningfulelectrificationnow.Industrialheatpumps,elec-tricboilers,andresistanceheatingarecommer-ciallyavailabletodayandcanaddresslargesharesoflow-andmedium-temperatureheatdemand—thelow-hangingfruitofindustrialelectrification.Scalingtheserequirespolicydirection,notnewinventions.Acrossglobalmitigationscenarios,asubsetofpathwaysalreadyreach85%by2050,demonstratingthathighelectrificationiswithinto-day'smodelledfeasibilityspace.

•Highelectrificationoutcomescoincidewithhighdecarbonisationambition.Scenariosthatachieveveryhighindustrialelectrificationaredis-proportionatelyconcentratedinstringentclimate-targetcategories.Thisindicatesthatextensivein-dustrialelectrificationisadefiningfeatureofpath-waysthatapproachtheupperboundsofglobaldecarbonisation,ratherthanamarginalornicheoption.

•Mid-centuryoutcomesshape,butdonotcap,end-of-centurypotential.By2050,medianelec-trificationreachesone-third,whilethemedianofhigh-ambitionscenariosis51%andthehighest

electrificationpathwaysapproach~85%,followedbystrongpost-2050acceleration.Whilethesedif-ferencesarevisibleby2050,substantialpost-2050accelerationremainspossibleformanyscenarioswhereenablingconditionsareinplace.

•Bottom-upstudiescorroboratetheupper-boundpotential.Manyfind~90%ofindustrialenergydemandcouldbeelectrifiedastechnolo-giesmatureandcleanelectricitybecomeswidelyavailable.

•Lowerelectrificationscenariosreflectassump-tions,nottechnicallimits.Low-electrificationscenariostypicallyassumeconstrainedelectric-itysupply,relianceonCCSoverprocesschange,slowcapitalstockturnover,orweakerpolicysig-nals.

•Subsectordifferencesmatter:Modelledelec-trificationsharesforsteelandcementaretypi-callylowerandmoreuncertainthaneconomy-wideaverages.Thisreflectstheneedforveryhigh-temperatureheat,theneedtoreduceironoretometallicironinprimarysteelmaking,anddiffer-encesinhowmodelsrepresentindustrialtech-nologies.

4

Policyimplications

C

Reachingthehigh-electrificationfrontierrequiresacoordinatedpackagethatreducesexposuretofossilfuelvolatilityintheneartermwhilebuildingtheconditionsforlarge-scalecleanelectricity—generatedfromsolar,wind,andothernon-emittingsourcesinthelongterm.Thedirectionforpolicyisclear:makeelectrificationthelower-risk,morestablechoiceforindustrytoday,whilescalingthesystemthatallowsittodominateovertime.Governmentscanactimmediatelytoshieldindustryfrompriceshocksandacceleratedeploymentofproventechnologies,whileputtinginplacethestructuralchangesneededtoenablegrowthto2050.

Near-termpriorities:reduceexposuretopriceshocks(0-5years)

01Makeelectricitythesafer,morestableoptionforindustry

Industrialfirmsarecurrentlyexposedtovolatileglobalgasandoilprices,whileelectricitycanincreasinglybegenerateddomesticallyfromrenewables.Governmentsshouldensurethatelectricityisnotartificiallymoreexpensivethanfossilfuelsbyremovingleviesandchargesthatdisproportionatelyfallonpower.Thegoalisnotperfectpricing,buttoensureelectrificationisthelower-risk,morestableoptionbasedondomesticallyproducedenergy.

02Scalewhatalreadyworks–now

Formaturetechnologiessuchasheatpumps,electro-thermalstorage,electricboilers,andresistanceheating,themainbarrierisoftennottechnicalfeasibilitybutoperatingcosts.Thesetechnologiescanalreadyreplacelargesharesoffossilfueldemandforlow-andmedium-temperatureheat.Governmentsshouldusetime-limitedcontractsfordifference,operatinggrants,orcleanheatpremiumstobridgethepricegapforeligibleindustrialprocesses.Thatreducesexposuretogaspricespikeswhilegivingfirmsaviablebusinesscasetoswitchatspeedandscale.

03Fast-trackindustrialelectrificationprojects

Aprojectthatcannotgetagridconnectionisnotaproject.Governmentsshouldprioritiseindustrialelectrificationinconnectionqueues,streamlinepermitting,andallowanticipatorygridinvestmentwhereindustrialloadgrowthisclearlyexpected.Thismattersmostinindustrialclusters,whereelectrificationcanberolledoutatscale.Governmentsshouldtreatindustrialelectrificationascriticalinfrastructure,prioritisinggridaccess,acceleratingapprovals,andremovingadministrativebottleneckssoprojectscanproceedoninvestment-relevanttimelines.

04De-riskfirstmoversandunlockinvestment

Evenwhenelectrificationischeaperovertheassetlife,firmsfaceuncertaintyaroundupfrontcosts,futureprices,andpolicystabilityoverassetpaybackperiods.Fasterdepreciation,investmenttaxcredits,concessionalloans,andtargetedcapitalgrantscanreducerisksandunlockearlyprojects,especiallyforfirstmoversandsmallandmedium-sizedindustrialusers.

05Usepublicprocurementandanchordemandtocreatemarkets

Publicprocurementandlargeindustrialbuyerscancreatereliabledemandforelectrifiedheat,steam,andlow-carbonproducts.Long-termofftakecontracts,industrialclusteragreements,and“heat-as-a-service”modelscanreduceriskforprivateinvestorsandhelpearlyprojectsscale.Governmentscanalsodesignateelectricindustryclusterstogeographicallyanchordemand,whichstrengthensregionalresiliencetoenergyshocks.

Thesemeasurescanreduceimmediatecostpressureswhilebuildingmomentumforstructuralchange.Importantly,ratherthanwaitingforperfectsystemconditions,itallowsforscalingofavailabletechnologiestodeliverimmediateresiliencebenefitsandacceleratecostreductionstoday.

HighVoltageExecutivesummary

Structuralpriorities:enableelectrificationatscale(to2050)

06Makecleanelectricityabundantandaffordable.

Thelong-termsolutiontofossilfuelvolatilityistoreducerelianceoninternationallytradedfuels.Thisrequireslarge-scaleexpansionofrenewables,grids,andsystemflexibilitytoprovideindustrywithstable,domesticallysourcedenergy.

07Alignindustrialpolicywithelectrificationpathways

Industrialstrategy,infrastructureplanning,andenergypolicymustworktogether.Decisionsongrids,retrofits,andcapitalstockturnoverinthe2020sand2030swilldeterminewhetherindustrycanreachhighlevelsofelectrificationlaterinthecentury.Governmentscanencouragepower+industrycoordinationastheyplantheirtransitionpathways.Thisincludesbuildingandplanninggridsforindustrialdemandgrowth,includinganticipatoryinvestment,streamlinedpermitting,andaligningstandardsandprocurementaslong-termpolicysignals.

08Focustargetedinnovationwhereelectrificationishardest

Sectorssuchassteel,cement,andchemicalsrequirehigh-temperatureheatandprocesstransformation.Theseshouldbeaddressedthroughfocusedinnovationanddemonstration,withoutslowingprogressinareaswhereelectrificationisalreadyviable

Takentogether,theevidenceindicatesthathighlevelsofindustrialelectrificationareachievablebutnotinevitable.Theupperbound(85%)reflectswhatispossibleunderhighlyenablingconditions,whilethemedian(51%)reflectsmoremoderatepolicyaction.Whereindustryendsuponthisspectrumwillbedeterminedbydecisionstakenthisdecade.Bothengineeringevidenceandglobalmodellingpointtothesameconclusion:thepotentialisreal;theconstraintispolicy.Industrialelectrificationshouldthereforebeunderstoodnotonlyasadecarbonisationpathway,butasastrategytoreduceexposuretorecurringenergypriceshocks.

5

6

Introduction

Industrialelectrificationisnolongeranicheoption.Itisacoresystemsstrategylinkingindustrialcompetitiveness,energysecurityandlong-termdecarbonisation.

Industryaccountsfor29%ofglobalCO2emissions[

1

],withcombustionforprocessheatthedominantsourcerelyingmostlyonfossilfuels[

2

].Inthepast,industrialsectoremissionshaveoftenbeenclassi-fiedas`hard-to-abate',alabelthatcanbemisusedtodelaycarbonabatement[

3

].Recenttechnologicalandanalyticaladvances,however,havesubstan-tiallyimprovedunderstandingofdecarbonisationoptions.Industrialelectrificationhasemergedasacentralpillarofcrediblepathways,enablingthereplacementoffossilfuelswithrenewableandlow-carbonelectricity[

47

].Thisisbecausesubstitutingfossilfuelswithelectricitydirectlyreduceson-siteemissionsand,critically,allowsemissionstofallfur-theraspowersystemsdecarbonise.Inthissense,electrificationisbothanendinitselfandaleverthatbenefitsfromcontinueddeploymentofrenewablesandgridexpansion.Electrificationalsoofferssignifi-cantenergyefficiencyimprovementsintermsoffinalenergy[

8

,

9

]throughtechnologiessuchasindustrialheatpumps,electricboilers,andinductionheating.

Despitegrowingevidence,acomprehensiveglobalassessmentofindustrialelectrificationpotentialre-mainslacking.Existingstudiesaretypicallylimitedtospecificregions,subsectors,ortechnologies,re-sultinginafragmentedevidencebase.Asystematicglobalsynthesisisthereforeneededtointegrateemergingtechnological,economic,andpolicyin-sights,identifyareasofhighestpotential,andinformcoordinatedinternationalstrategies.Giventhecen-tralroleofelectrificationinnet-zeroscenarios,suchsynthesisisnowcritical.

Thisreportfocusesexplicitlyontheupperendofin-dustrialelectrificationpotentialandmakes2050theanchorforpolicyrelevance.Ratherthanaskingwhat

levelofindustrialelectrificationismostlikelyundercurrenttrends,itasks:howfarcanindustrialelectri-ficationgounderfavourableconditions?Drawingonalargeensembleofglobalmitigationscenariosandrecentbottom-upevidence,thereportshowsthat

industrialelectrificationcanreachupto~85%by2050and~91%offinalenergydemandinthelongterm.

Thedivergencebetweenmoderateandhigh-electrificationpathwaysemergeswellbeforemid-century.By2050,high-electrificationscenariosarealreadysubstantiallyaheadoftheglobalmedian,reflectingearlydifferencesinelectricitypricing,gridinvestment,industrialretrofitrates,andtechnologydeployment.Thisindicatesthatindustrialelectrifi-cationoutcomesinthelong-termfuturearelargelylockedinbydecisionstakeninthe2020sand2030s,ratherthanbeingdeterminedbylate-centurytech-nologybreakthroughs.

Fromapolicyperspective,thisframinghasimportantimplications.Ifveryhighelectrificationistechnicallyandeconomicallyfeasible,thenlow-electrificationoutcomesshouldnotbeinterpretedasthebaseline,butastheresultofpolicy,infrastructure,andinvest-mentconstraints.Industrialelectrificationatscalethereforebecomesaquestionofsystemdesignandgovernance:howelectricitymarketsarestructured,howgridsareplannedandpermitted,howriskissharedinearlydeployments,andhowlong-termsignalsshapeindustrialinvestmentdecisions.

Thereportisstructuredtofirstestablishthefun-damentalquestionwhyindustrialelectrificationiscritical(Section1),buildingonthefoundationaleffi-ciencyanddecarbonisationbenefitsoutlinedabove.Wethenexaminetheglobalpotential(Section2)

HighVoltageIntroduction

7

forelectrificationacrossdiverseindustrialsubsec-torsglobally,detailingthetechnicalscaleoftheop-portunity.Followingthis,thereportquantifiestheexpectedemissionreductionpotential(Section3)ofwidespreadadoption,linkingelectrificationpath-waystoglobalnet-zeroclimategoals.Finally,wemovebeyondtechnicalfeasibilitytopresentpolicyrecommendations(Section4)outliningthecriticalpolicies,regulations,andinvestmentmechanismsrequiredtoacceleratedeploymentandovercomehurdles.

1

Electrificationismeasuredasfinalenergyelectric-ityshareinindustry,consistentwithstandardIIASA

definitionsandincludingelectricityassociatedwithfeedstockswherereported.Indirectelectrificationviaelectricity-basedhydrogenorsyntheticfuelsisnotquantified,meaningthetotalsystemroleofelec-tricityinindustrymaybeunderstated.Theanalysisfocusesonlong-termpotentialratherthanlikelihood,doesnotoptimiseacrossalldecarbonizationop-tions,anddoesnotassessspecificfeasibility,per-mitting,orsupply-chainconstraints.Accordingly,theresultsshouldbeinterpretedasdefiningtheenvelopofachievableindustrialelectrificationoutcomesun-derfavourableconditions,ratherthanasforecastsorprescriptivenationalroadmaps.

MEASUREMENTNOTE

Electrificationismeasuredasfinalenergyelectricityshareinindustry,consistentwithstandardIIASAdefinitionsandincludingelectricityassociatedwithfeedstockswherereported.Indirectelectrificationviaelectricity-basedhydrogenorsyntheticfuelsisnotquantified,meaningthetotalsystemroleofelectricityinindustrymaybeunderstated.Theanalysisfocusesonlong-termpotentialratherthanlikelihood,doesnotoptimiseacrossalldecarbonizationoptions,anddoesnotassessspecificfeasibility,permitting,orsupply-chainconstraints.Accordingly,theresultsshouldbeinterpretedasdefiningtheenvelopeofachievableindustrialelectrificationoutcomesunderfavourableconditions,ratherthanasforecastsorprescriptivenationalroadmaps.

1Industrialelectrificationsharereferstotheshareofindustrialfinalenergydeliveredaselectricity(directelectrification).Indirectelectrificationviaelectricity-derivedfuels(e.g.hydrogen,e-fuels)isdiscussedqualitativelywhererelevantbutnotcountedinthiselectricitysharemetricunlessexplicitlyincludedintheunderlyingdata.

8

1.Whyindustrialelectrification?

Efficiencygains,lowerfossil-fuelexposureandcleanerheatmakedirectelectrificationastructuralroutetoindustrialresilience,energysecurity,andindustrialsavings.

Thedecarbonisationoftheindustrialsectorpresentsoneofthemostcriticalchallengestoachievingglobalnet-zeroobjectives,primarilyduetotheper-vasiverelianceonfossil-fuelcombustionforprocessheatacrossawiderangeofmanufacturingactivities.Addressingthischallengerequiresafundamentaltransformationofindustrialenergysystemsratherthanincrementalefficiencyimprovementsalone.Inthiscontext,strategicindustrialelectrificationhasemergednotonlyasamitigationmeasure,butas

theprincipalandmosteconomicallyrobustpath-waytowardsamodern,resilient,andcompetitiveindustrialeconomy[

10

,

11

].Thenecessityofthisstrategyissupportedbyagrowingbodyofrobustanalysisdemonstratingtheconvergenceofthreereinforcingbenefits:deepemissionsabatement,en-hancedenergyefficiency,andimprovedoperationalresilience.Together,thesefactorsdistinguishelec-trificationfromalternativedecarbonisationoptionsthataddressonlysubsetsofthechallenge.

?

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up6(Em),Aba)

i

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up6(ss),tem)

i

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up6(ons),ent)

Electrificationenablesa

decouplingofindustrial

operationsfromfossilfuelinputs,withemissions

reductionscompoundingasgridsintegratemorerenewableenergy.

,

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up7(Ener),Effic)

i

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up7(g),e)

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up7(y),n)

cy

Electricprocessheating

systemsoperateathigh

efficiencies,delivering

substantiallymorethermalenergyperunitofinput

thanconventionalcombustion.

o

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up6(Ope),Res)

i

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up6(r),l)

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up6(at),ie)

i

EQ\*jc3\*hps23\o\al(\s\up6(ona),nce)

l

Transitioningtodomesticelectricitygeneration

mitigatesindustry’s

exposuretogeopolitical

risksandpricevolatilityofimportedfossilfuels.

Crucially,electrificationenablesastructuraldecou-plingofindustrialoperationsfromfossilfuelinputs.Electricprocessheatingsystems-particularlyin-dustrialheatpumps-operateathighefficiencies,deliveringsubstantiallymorethermalenergyperunitofelectricalinputthanisachievablethroughcon-ventionalcombustion[

12

,

13

].Thisinherentoper-ationalefficiencytranslatesdirectlyintoasubstan-tialreductioninfinalenergydemand.Importantly,electrificationcanalsodelivermeaningfulefficiencygainsatveryhightemperatures.Emergingtech-

nologiessuchasresistiveheating,induction,andplasma-basedsystemscanachievehigherconver-sionefficienciesthanconventionalfossil-fuel-basedfurnacesbyav