中信证券业绩新高彰显龙头实力

图表1：中信证券各业务净收入结构图经纪 投行 资管 投资 利息 其他100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025注：投资类收入=投资净收益+公允价值变动净收益-对联营企业和合营企业的投资收益公司公告图表2A股可比公司PE、PB一致预期EPSBPSPEPB机构代码(2026E)（2026E)（2026E)（2026E)广发证券000776CH2.0520.1190.90600999CH1.5916.67100.91中国银河601881CH1.4612.7891.03中位数90.91平均数90.95注：股价取自2026年3月26日，EPS、BPS来自 一致预期图表3：H股可比公司PE、PB一致预期EPSBPSPEPB机构代码(2026E)（2026E)（2026E)（2026E)广发证券1776HK2.0520.1160.656099HK1.5916.6770.69中国银河6881HK1.4612.7850.60中位数60.65平均数60.65注：股价取自2026年3月26日，EPS、BPS来自 一致预期图表4：季度经营情况总结1Q25A2Q25A3Q25A4Q25AYoYQoQ2025AYoY营业收入Rmbmn17,76115,27822,77519,04019%-16%74,85429%经纪净收入Rmbmn3,3253,0774,5373,8147%-16%14,75338%投资银行净收入Rmbmn9761,1221,5912,64797%66%6,33652%资产管理净收入Rmbmn2,5632,8803,2593,47415%7%12,17616%利息净收入Rmbmn-202424542866427%60%1,63050%投资类收入Rmbmn8,86210,19012,5507,00250%-44%38,60447%营业支出Rmbmn9,5415,81710,1489,182-18%-10%34,689-2%管理费用Rmbmn7,6387,6869,0208,770-12%-3%33,11410%营业利润Rmbmn8,2209,46112,6279,85752%-22%40,16541%所得税Rmbmn1,5362,0642,8592,35774%-18%8,81651%归母净利润Rmbmn6,5457,1749,4406,91741%-27%30,07639%净利润(扣非)Rmbmn6,4377,1349,4297,30251%-23%30,30241%EPSRmb0.440.480.640.4742%-27%2.0339%EPS(扣非)Rmb0.430.480.640.4951%-23%2.0441%全市场股基日均成交额Rmbmn1,746,4601,565,5192,675,3252,432,22918%-9%2,053,81370%全市场融资融券日均余额Rmbmn1,874,9541,818,5132,109,3002,489,74040%18%2,079,28833%融出资金Rmbmn149,777143,169191,709207,65250%8%207,65250%IPO规模Rmbmn1,2612,6182,80416,060167%473%22,74371%再融资规模Rmbmn33,214125,93425,70319,206-56%-25%204,057152%债券承销规模Rmbmn450,446603,083606,760460,153-19%-24%2,120,4420.2%金融投资Rmbmn922,798882,630932,012958,32511%3%958,32511%公司公告图表5：季度经营情况与预测值对比运营数据概览2025Q4YoY2025Q4EAvsE全市场股基日均成交额Rmbmn2,432,22918%2,109,30015%全市场融资融券日均余额Rmbmn2,489,74040%2,400,0004%融出资金Rmbmn207,65250%218,130-5%IPO规模Rmbmn16,060167%3,000435%再融资规模Rmbmn19,206-56%68,544-72%债券承销规模Rmbmn460,153-19%622,322-26%财报数据总结营业收入Rmbmn19,04019%19,886-4%经纪净收入Rmbmn3,8147%4,749-20%投资银行净收入Rmbmn2,64797%979170%资产管理净收入Rmbmn3,47415%2,71528%利息净收入Rmbmn866427%55955%投资类收入Rmbmn7,00250%10,116-31%营业支出Rmbmn9,182-18%8,9493%管理费用Rmbmn8,770-12%7,95410%营业利润Rmbmn9,85752%10,937-10%所得税Rmbmn2,35774%2,496-6%归母净利润Rmbmn6,91741%8,303-17%EPSRmb/sh0.4742%0.56-16%公司公告 预测图表6：年度核心假设和财务预测驱动概览(Driver)2024A2025A2026E2027E2028E全市场股基日均成交额 Rmbmn1,210,1872,053,8132,500,0002,600,0002,800,000全市场融资融券日均余额 Rmbmn1,567,0702,079,2882,570,3412,700,0002,900,000运营数据概览(Operationalresultssummary)融资融券余额 Rmbmn135,400190,300208,000238,000264,000融资融券市占率 %7.267.498.008.508.80测算融资融券利率 %5.274.324.324.324.32IPO规模 Rmbmn13,10021,90028,47034,16437,580IPO规模增速-74%67%30%20%10%再融资规模 Rmbmn57,300248,800447,840671,760806,112再融资规模增速-75%334%80%50%20%债券承销规模 Rmbmn2,091,2002,209,5002,319,9752,435,9742,557,772债券承销规模增速9%6%5%5%5%金融投资 Rmbmn861,700958,3001,054,4501,120,2861,176,300金融投资规模增速20%11%10%6%5%资产管理规模 Rmbmn1,542,4001,761,6001,937,1092,068,7002,161,162资产管理综合费率 %0.150.160.160.160.15核心财务指标(corefinancialindicators)分红比例36%34%34%34%34%归母净资产 Rmbmn293,109319,930345,034373,910405,669归母净利润 Rmbmn21,70430,07638,32044,07948,479EPS Rmb1.462.032.592.973.27BVPS Rmb19.7821.5923.2825.2327.37公司公告 预测图表7：年度经营情况与预测值对比运营数据概览2024A2025AYoY2025EAvsE融资融券余额 Rmbmn135,400190,30041%182,7904%融资融券市占率 %7.267.490.23pct7.260.23pct测算融资融券利率 %5.274.32-0.95pct5.27-0.95pctIPO规模 Rmbmn13,10021,90067%17,03029%再融资规模 Rmbmn57,300248,800334%80,220210%债券承销规模 Rmbmn2,091,2002,209,5006%2,195,7601%金融投资 Rmbmn861,700958,30011%1,045,214-8%资产管理规模 Rmbmn1,542,4001,761,60014%1,636,6808%资产管理综合费率 %0.150.160.01pct0.150.01pct财报数据总结营业收入 Rmbmn63,78974,85429%75,701-1%经纪净收入 Rmbmn10,71314,75338%15,688-6%投资银行净收入 Rmbmn4,1596,33652%4,66836%资产管理净收入 Rmbmn10,50612,17716%11,4177%利息净收入 Rmbmn1,0841,63050%1,32323%投资类收入 Rmbmn26,34538,60447%41,718-7%营业支出 Rmbmn35,28334,689-2%34,4811%管理费用 Rmbmn30,08433,11410%33,308-1%营业利润 Rmbmn28,50640,16541%41,219-3%所得税 Rmbmn5,8298,81651%8,3575%归母净利润 Rmbmn21,70430,07639%31,462-4%归母净资产 Rmbmn293,109319,9309%312,9672%EPS Rmb/sh1.462.0339%2.12-4%BVPS Rmb/sh19.7821.599%21.122%DPS Rmb/sh0.520.735%0.782904183-11%分红比例35.5%34.5%-1.0pct36.9%-2.4pct公司公告 预测图表8：中信证券单季度盈利预测百万元2024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42026Q1E总收入137551642915958176481776115278227751904020413经纪244224382275355833253077453738143952全市场股基日均成交额1021664948237804560206837717464601565519267532524322292800000投行869866108413409761122159126472912IPO规模5066021876024126126182804160601800再融资规模13,0259,73213,92744,13133,21412593425703192062500债券承销规模419,107519,032612,163565,747450,446603083606760460153473958资管235825562564302725632880325934743648利息325791-197164-202424542866901利息收入518751374421519647574748508756436006全市场融资融券日均余额154736915246561419430178168118749541818513210930024897402650000融出资金114280113359113408138332149777143169191709207652221018利息支出/收入94%85%104%97%104%91%89%85%85%投资54606271993346818862101901255070029000其他2300350729948752237-241529612371418其他/营业收入17%21%2%28%13%-16%1%6%6%营业收入同比增速-10%2%12%24%29%-7%43%8%15%经纪-6%-10%-11%49%36%26%99%99%19%投行-56%-53%-24%30%12%30%47%47%198%资管-6%3%6%23%9%13%27%27%42%利息-44%-49%-117%-78%-162%-46%376%376%546%投资-17%27%134%-23%62%63%26%26%2%营业收入环比增速-4%19%-3%11%1%-14%49%49%7%经纪2%0%-7%56%-7%-7%47%47%4%投行-16%0%25%24%-27%15%42%42%10%资管-4%8%0%18%-15%12%13%13%5%利息-57%143%-125%184%-223%310%28%28%4%投资-10%15%58%-53%89%15%23%23%29%费用率52%55%50%63%54%38%45%48%48%-管理费率45%44%42%56%43%50%40%46%46%费用率同比变动-0.5pct+3.2pct-3.2pct-6.6pct+2pct-16.8pct-5.5pct-15pct-5.5pct-管理费率-2.8pct+1.9pct-6.7pct+1.1pct-1.9pct+5.9pct-2.1pct-10.3pct+3.1pct费用率环比变动-18.1pct+3.1pct-4.9pct+13.2pct-9.5pct-15.7pct+6.5pct+3.7pct0pct-管理费率-10.3pct-0.5pct-2.7pct+14.6pct-13.4pct+7.3pct-10.7pct+6.5pct0pct归母净利润495956116229490565457174944069178000归母净利润(同比)-8%-5%22%48%32%28%52%41%22%归母净利润(环比)50%13%11%-21%33%10%32%-27%16%净利率36%34%39%28%37%47%41%36%39%归母净利润率(同比)+0.8pct-2.3pct+3.3pct+4.6pct+0.8pct+12.8pct+2.4pct+8.5pct+2.3pct归母净利润率(环比)+12.9pct-1.9pct+4.9pct-11.2pct+9.1pct+10.1pct-5.5pct-5.1pct+2.9pctEPS0.330.380.420.330.440.480.640.470.54公司公告预测风险提示业务开展不及预期：如财富管理转型、投资业务开展、国际化业务拓展等不及预期；图表9：中信证券PE-Bands 图表10：中信证券PB-Bands(人民币)50

━━━━━中信证券

(人民币)40

━━━━━中信证券38 25x 30 20x25 15x 2010x13 105x

1.4x0Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25Sep-25

0Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24Mar-25Sep-25、 、盈利预测损益表资产负债表会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E会计年度(人民币百万)20242025 2026E 2027E 2028E营业收入63,78974,85489,09199,024107,101总资产1,710,7112,081,9032,277,2252,505,1992,799,113手续费及佣金净收入26,08234,84842,05648,05952,628金融资产投资861,773958,3251,074,4501,140,2861,196,300经纪业务手续费净收入10,71314,75317,65120,01321,815融资融券135,400190,300208,000238,000264,000投资银行业务手续费净收入4,1596,3368,68210,90512,550买入返售金融资产44,26854,36295,340100,107资产管理业务手续费净收入10,50612,17713,81514,96115,875总负债1,411,9441,756,0801,925,8372,124,4032,417,880利息净收入1,0841,6302,2232,6923,176权益合计293,109319,930345,034373,910405,669投资净收益32,48640,27221,19922,61523,836对联营企业和合营企业的投资收益117.57509.62609.62709.62809.62公允价值变动净收益(6,023)(1,158)21,58923,40625,026汇兑净收益3,428(1,569)890.91990.241,071其他收益299.97204.81243.78270.95293.05其他业务收入6,437623.36890.91990.241,071营业支出35,28334,68938,03840,29942,515税金及附加318.62483.57575.576