高盛-中国：2026年第一季度贸易概览：进出口量增速均加快-China：Trade Dashboard 2026Q1：Both export and import volume growth accelerated-20260501

Eco

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ntsi:c/s/wse.vaaruhelist1May2026|7:40AMHKT

China:TradeDashboard2026Q1:Bothexportandimportvolumegrowthaccelerated

n

n

n

Exports:ChineseexportgrowthacceleratedinQ1,registering14.1%yoygrowthinrealterms(vs.7.2%yoyinQ4lastyear).Thepricedragwasfading—export

pricesdippedonly0.4%yoyinthefirstquarter,comparedto-3.5%inQ4last

year.Chinesenominalexportsgrew13.7%yoyinQ1(vs.3.7%yoyinQ4last

year).1ExportpricesofelectricalequipmentincreasedthemostinQ1(+8.3%

yoy),whileexportpricesofmineralsdroppedthemost(-5.9%yoy).Inrealterms,exportsoftransportationequipment(mostlyautos)increasedthemost(+26.7%yoy),followedbyelectricalmachinery(whichincludessemiconductors).By

destination(innominalterms),ChineseexportstoAfricaincreasedthemost

year-over-yearinQ1(+32.1%yoy).Incontrast,China’sUS-boundexportsfromChinatotheUSexperiencedthelargestdecline,falling16.4%yoyinQ1.2

Imports:Chinesenominalimportsrose20.5%yoyinQ1(vs.+4.3%yoyinQ4lastyear),mostlydrivenbyincreasingimportvolumes.Involumeterms,imports

increased15.7%yoyinQ1(vs.0.7%yoyinQ4lastyear),withrealgrowththe

strongestforelectricalmachineryandweakestfortransportationequipment.Importpricesofstone/glass/metalsincreasedthemostinQ1(+29.3%yoy),

refiectinghighergold(+70%yoy)andcopper(+37%yoy)prices,whileimportpricesofleather/wood/paperdroppedthemost(-2.9%yoy).Byorigin,ChinesenominalimportsfromtheUSfell17.9%yoyinQ1,whileimportsfrom“other

countries”(e.g.,Switzerland)grew71.2%yoy.3Overall,whileexportgrowth

strengthwaswidespreadacrossproductsandcountries,importgrowthshowedmorevariationacrossdi仟erentsectors.

Outlookforcurrentaccount:Whiletradegrowthwasexceptionallystrongin

Q1,weexpectittomoderateinthecomingquartersduetocontinuedtrade

disruptionsintheMiddleEastand

lowerdemand

fromlow-incomeoil-importingtradingpartners.BasedonthestrongQ1data,weraiseour2026totalgoods

exportvolumegrowthforecastto7.2%(upfrom5.3%previously)andimportvolumegrowthto6.8%(upfrom1.5%previously).Higherenergyprices,drivenbytheMiddleEastconfiict,shouldpushyear-over-yeargrowthofimportandexportpricesto7.6%and2.9%respectivelyin2026,upfromourprevious

YutingYang

+852-2978-7283|

yuting.y.yang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

1Hereweusetheloggrowthratetonormalizevolatilityandfacilitatemulti-periodcomparisons.

2PartofthedeclineindirectUS-boundexportscouldbeattributedtoreroutingthroughEMs,most

notablyASEANeconomies.Therefore,onavalue-addedbasis,totalUSimportsfromChinadidnotdropasmuchasthebilateraltradevaluedatasuggest.

3WeestimatethatChina’simportsfromSwitzerlandcontributed32.4percentagepointstothe71.2%year-over-yeargrowthinthe‘others’categoryduringQ1.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachs

.

China

expectationsof4.0%and1.9%.Takentogether,China’sgoodstradesurplusislikelytodecreaseslightlyto5.5%ofGDPin2026(vs.6.0%in2025).

4

GiventhatChina’sinboundtourism

gatheredpace

witheasedvisapoliciesandtaxrefundrules,we

expecttheservicestradedeficittonarrowmarginallyin2026.Combiningthe

narrowergoodstradesurplusandservicestradedeficit,weexpectChina’soverallcurrentaccountsurplustodecreasemodestlyto3.4%ofGDPin2026from3.7%in2025beforerisingagainin2027onlowerimportprices.OurforecastforChina’s

2026currentaccountsurplusremainsaboveBloombergconsensusexpectationsof3.0%ofGDP.

4ThesearebasedonBOPdefinitions;thegoodstradesurpluswouldbe4.9%ofGDPin2026(vs.5.4%in2025)basedontheCustomsdefinition.

1May20262

GoldmanSachs

.

China

1May20263

1.ChineseexportvolumegrowthacceleratedinQ1

40yoy,percentchangeyoy,percentchang0

30Seafreightvolume30Airfreightvolume

2020

1010

00

-10-10

-20-2019941997200020032006200920122015201820212024

Exhibit1:GlobalAir/Seavolumegrowthacceleratedto2.6%/4.8%yoyinQ1from1.9%/4.6%yoyinQ4lastyear

TheAir&Seavolumeindexesarebasedonfreightvolumeofexportsand

importsinmajorportsandairports,includingbothinternationalanddomestictradefiows.

Source:Portauthorities,Companydata,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:China’sexportvolumegrowthacceleratedinQ1

yoy,percentyoy,percent

5050

TradeindexbreakdownforquarterlyChinaexports

4040

3030

2020

1010

00

-10-10

Volume

-20-20

Price

-30Value-30

-40-40

2006200920122015201820212024

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit2:ChineseexportsalonecontributedroughlyhalfoftheheadlinerealGDPgrowthinQ1

-8-8030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Spilloverstoexport-relatedmanufacturinginvestmentContributionfromdomesticvalue-addedofexports

ChinarealGDPyear-on-yeargrowth

Percent

20

16

12

8

4

0

-4

Percent

20

16

12

8

4

0

-4

Source:HaverAnalytics,CEIC,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:MainlandChina’snominalexportstotheUSfellthemostinQ1

0102030405060708090100

CumulativeShareofExportsWeexcludeHongKongandMacauinouranalysis.

yoy,percentchangeChinaexportgrowthin2026Q1bydestination

UK,

Japan,Canada,Korea&Australia&TaiwanNew

Zealand

Latam

yoy,percentchange

Africa

Others

MiddleEast

US

30

15

0

-15

-30

45

30

15

0

-15

-30

Russia

EU

ASEAN

Source:DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics

GoldmanSachs

.

China

1May20264

Exhibit5:Exportvolumeincreasedforallmajorcategories

/rubber

yoy,percentchange

30

yoy,percentchange30

Transportation25

Chinaexportvolumegrowthin2026Q1bygoods

25

Agriculturalproducts

20

20

Chemicals

/plastics

Electricalequipment

Leather/wood/paper

15

15

Minerals

Mechanicalmachinery

10

10

Stone /glass/metals

Textile/apparel

Others

5

5

0

0

90100

01020304050607080

CumulativeShareofExports

Source:CEIC,datacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit7:China’sexportscontinuedtolosemarketshareintheUS

Percent

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Percent

35

China

enteredWTO

30

25

20

15

Shareofnon-commodityimportsfromChina:

EuroArea

US

LargeEMs*

10

5

0

Japan

1012

0002040608

141618202224

26

0

*LargeEMsinclude:India,Indonesia,Brazil,Turkey,Russia,SaudiArabiaandMexico

NotethatsomeexportspreviouslyshippeddirectlytotheUSmaynowgoviaotherEMeconomies.ThelatestimportdataisavailablethroughQ1forJapanandQ4lastyearforallothercountries.

Source:CEIC,HaverAnalytics,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:Exportpricesofelectricalequipmentrosethemost,whilethatofmineralsfellthemost

yoy,percentchangeChinaexportpricechangesin2026Q1bygoods

yoy,percentchange

15

15

10

10

Stone /glass/metals

Electricalequipment

Mechanicalmachinery

Leather

5

5

Transportation

/wood/paper

0

0

Chemicals

-5

-5

Others

Textile

/apparelAgricultural

/plastics

/rubber

-10

-10

products

Minerals

-15

-15

3040506070

8090100

01020

CumulativeShareofExports

Source:CEIC,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:Newexportorderssub-indicesoftheofficialandnon-officialmanufacturingPMIsremainedsolidinrecentmonthsdespitetheglobalenergyshock

Index

60

60

IndexNewexportorderssub-indexofmanufacturingPMI

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

35

40

NBS

35

RatingDog

3030

2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Aprilisthelatestdataavailable.

Source:NBS,S&PGlobal

GoldmanSachs

.

China

1May20265

2.ChineseimportvolumegrowthsurgedinQ1

Exhibit9:Electronicproductsandmineralfuelsaccountedfornearly40%ofChina’stotalimportsasof2026Q1

USDbillion

USDbillion800

800

Chinesequarterlyimportsbyproduct:Other

OthermachineryandtransportationequipmentElectronics(inclsemiconductors)

Manufacturedmaterials

600

Chemicals

Semiconductor

Crudematerials(excl.fuel)

Mineralfuel

Food/beverage/tobacco

300

400

Ironore

200

Oil

-200

0

200020032006200920122015201820212024

Source:NBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit11:MainlandChina’snominalimportsfromtheUSfellthemostinQ1

yoy,percentchangeyoy,percentchange

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

OthersChinaimportgrowthin2026Q1bydestination

UK,

Canada,

Australia

LatamJapan,Korea&Taiwan

&New

Zealand

Africa

EURussia

ASEAN

10

0

-10

MiddleEast

US

-20

-30

0102030405060708090100

CumulativeShareofImports

WeexcludeHongKongandMacauinouranalysis.

Source:HaverAnalytics,datacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit10:Year-on-yeargrowthofChineseimportvolumerosesharplyinQ1

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

60

yoy,percentyoy,percent

TradeindexbreakdownforquarterlyChinaimports

40

20

0

Volume

Price

-20

Value

-40

Mar-07Mar-11Mar-15Mar-19Mar-23

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit12:Involumeterms,Chinaimportedmore

electricalequipmentandlesstransportationproductsinQ1

yoy,percentchangeyoy,percentchange

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

Chinaimportvolumegrowthin2026Q1bygoods40

equipmentglass/Mechanical

ElectricalStone/30

metalsmachineryilr20

MineralsAoicduultal10

Others

0Chemicals/

prli/Leather/-10

wood/

paper-20-30

Transportation

-40

0102030405060708090100

CumulativeShareofImports

Source:CEIC,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit13:Importpricesofstone/glass/metalsrosethemost,whilethatofleather/wood/paperfellthemost

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

yoy,percentchangeyoy,percentchange

Stone/

glass/

metals

Chinaimportpricechangesin2026Q1bygoods

Textile/apparel

Chemicals/plastics/ rubber

Electricalequipment

Agriculturalproducts

Mechanicalmachinery

OthersTransportation

Minerals

Leather/wood/…

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

0102030405060708090100

CumulativeShareofImports

Source:CEIC,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachs

.

China

1May20266

3.OurChinaoutside-intradetrackerdivergedfromtheofficialtradegrowthrateinpartduetotheLNYdistortions

Exhibit14:OurChinaoutside-inexporttrackerslightlyunderperformedtheofficialexportgrowthdatainFebruary

Source:HaverAnalytics,CEIC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit15:OurChinaoutside-inimporttrackermovedlargelyinlinewiththeofficialimportgrowthdatainrecentmonths

Source:HaverAnalytics,CEIC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachs

.

China

1May20267

4.Weexpectthecurrentaccountsurplustonarrowmodestlyin2026

Exhibit16:Weexpectexportvolumetoslowmarginallyto7.2%in2026from8.8%yoyin2025

BreakdownofpriceandvolumecontributiontogoodsexportsExportprices(USDterms)

Goodsexportsvolume

Nominalgoodsexports

-10-10

15161718192021222324252627

40

30

20

10

0

40

30

20

10

0

yoy,percentchange

yoy,percentchange

GSe

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit18:Weexpectthecurrentaccountsurplustonarrowmodestlyin2026

-3-3

20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

China'scurrentaccount(shareofGDP,%)Goodstradebalance

Servicestradebalance

Incomeandtransfer

Currentaccountbalance

Percent

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Percent

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

GSe

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit17:Weexpectimportpricetoincreasesharplyin2026

yoy,percentchangeyoy,percentchange

4040Breakdownofpriceandvolumecontributiontogoodsimports

30Importprices(USDterms)GSe30Goodsimportsvolume

20Nominalgoodsimports20

1010

00

-10-10

-20-20

15161718192021222324252627

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachs

.

China

1May20268

TheChinaEconomicsTeam

AndrewTilton

+852-2978-1802

andrew.tilton@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

XinquanChen

+852-2978-2418

xinquan.chen@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

HuiShan

+852-2978-6634

hui.shan@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

ChelseaSong

+852-2978-0106

chelsea.song@

YutingYang

+852-2978-7283

yuting.y.yang@

LishengWang

+852-3966-4004

lisheng.wang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GoldmanSachs

.

China

1May20269

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

I,YutingYang,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyrefiectmypersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfiuencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.ContributingAuthors:YutingYangGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C..

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedintheContributingAuthorsdisclosureofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublico仟eringsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconfiictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,

professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficer

ordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubject

company,publicappearancesandtradinginsecuritiescoveredbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedby

thecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhasbeenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonanysuch

advice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.Acopyofcertain

GoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicy

Statementareavailableat:

/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html

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/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html

.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalyst

primarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,o仟eringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersof

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SachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliate