瑞银-全球策略：新兴市场概览-Global Strategy Around Emerging Markets-20260505

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FoodweightinweightinCPIFoodtradebalance(%tradebalanceFertilizerConsumption(kgperhectareofarableland)consumptionFertilizerConsumptionas%ofproductionconsumptionas%ofproductionAveragerankPhilippines35%2-2.7%1945933.8Malaysia29%41.8%389225686.5Thailand40%16.1%287642347.0India35%30.2%67.3China17%-0.9%33941927.5Colombia14%0.5%373341258.5Mexico26%50.4%89440668.8Turkey23%60.4%999.015%6.3%344471819.3Indonesia23%72.2%31159.517%-0.4%431279.8SouthAfrica18%91.8%491220%85.2%2508Korea13%-1.5%2262714%-0.2%514%0.3%79817%2.1%90Hungary18%1.4%9010.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%婚§8 a§9ChinahasseensteadyROICimprovementvsEM40.0-10.00.88262020 0.88262020 TWI*by5%4.3010%12%14%16%18%a§●●●●Weequivalentto100%oftheircurrentmar45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%than2025ModifiedBasicBalance,%ofGDP9.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.00.0-1.00.505.00-0.50ModifiedOutflowsModifiedBBModifiedOutflowsa§%420-10-12-14-1680.980.9%40.0%32.4%22.6%22.40.0%32.4%22.6%22.1%15.3%8.9%4.1%3.3%3.0%1.4%0.6%0.4%n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.n.m.UBSidentifiedAI-beneficiarystocksas%MSCIindex a§●●●●6.0IndiaCAbalance,%ofGDPOilabove100$/bblscenario4.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.01011121314151617181920212223(Rolling12Mtrajectory,indexweighted) a§IncreaseIncreaseinsubsidizedprice50%40%30%20%10%0%Oilpriceassumption$70$80$90$100$110$120$130%ofGDP-0.9%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.2%0.0%-0.5%-0.3%-0.1%0.0%0.2%0.4%-0.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.1%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.0%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.8%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.0%2.2%●Weratiovs.MonthlyImports)9750708091011121314151617181920212223242526 a§●1y1yfwd:2.2%abovemid05/1905/2005/2105/2205/2305/2405/2505/26%7.06.04.03.02.00.0-1.0-2.00607080910111213%3.02.00.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0 a§●We2012=1001401351301251202012=10014013513012512011511010510095901.101.051.000.9511121314151617181920212223242526weakperiod-NetUSDsupply,rolling3m(fromspot+forwardreserves)50 a§●2026●●●Weexpectedtoremaininade%%ofGDP4.03.02.01.00.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0-6.0CurrentAccountas%ofGDP201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025E2026ERemittancesbyregionOthersMiddleEastMiddleEast27%18%16%Americas16%36%3% a§●We●●●●●●bpsWhat'spricedinfront-endrates0-6m6m-12m1y-20-6m6m-12m1y-2yCumulativepricingovernext12m75250-25-50thantwoyears%ofGDPMalaysiabasicbalance(4Qrollingas%ofGDP)7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%09/1509/1609/1709/1809/1909/2009/2109/2209/2309/2409/25 婚§18 a§4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%3002502003002502000-5020212022202320242025202620272028 a§Imamogluelections4030200-10-20Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25Apr-26400-10-202026$100/bbl)2019202020212022202320242026$100/bbl)$86/bbl) a§4.543.532.5210.50GrossEUfundinflows,%ofGDP20212022202120222026E2027EAgricultureOtherRRFCohesionandstructuralfundsAgricultureOther0 a§5%2.50%4% Currentaccount(last)4%3%2%0.5% EUfundsdelta**2%0.5%Sum 0.7%1%1.7% -0.7%1.7%0%-0.7%-0.5%-0.7%-0.5%-0.7%-1%-0.5%-0.7%-0.9%-1.7%-0.9%-2% -0.5%-2%-0.1%-0.1% a§24.4824.4824.4524.3024.4724.4724.5024.4524.4024.3524.3024.2524.2024.4724.4424.4530%20%10%0%-10%a§Bennettcamp**Bennettcamp**0a§120001000080006000400020000confclitApr-16Apr-18Apr-20Apr-22Apr-24Apr-26ActualModel*a§84%84%83%100%80%96%91%BahrainKuwaitOmanQatarKSAUAE2Q263Q264Q262Q-4Qavg.120%100%80%60%40%20%0%2024202520261233.36.02.6-Kuwait0.02.0-2.3-1.00.00.0-4.7-9.5-8.03.0-0.535.626.329.129.0-37.5-68.9-129.6UAE**-9.4-14.2-18.038.956.948.551.526.6 ab a§4.54.04.984.984.880 12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%BrazilPercentilesince2011:85%ileEM(GBIweighted)Percentilesince2011:98%ilea§50504.834.832012201420162018202020224.04.0 CB's3%target,+/-1% a§50 2.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%2.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%-4.0%-5.0%a§49004700450043004100411541155 8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%ColombiaPercentilesince2011:86%ileEM(GBIweighted)Percentilesince2011:77%ilea§8642086420CheapCheap.4.2620122014201620182020202228.06.04.02.00.08.06.04.02.00.0 a§AnordinalrankingofvaluationinEMduration(lowerscores=greatervalue)RealratesadjustedforcreditproxyNominalCouponInflationValuationDeviationofrealyieldfromMBS-predictedvalue*RealspreadtoDM(percentileover10y)**NominalYieldNominalspreadoverDM(percentileover10y)level***(%)2s10s***(percentileover10y)10yyield-12mvulnerabilityrankInflationvulnerabilityrankBondYld(percentileMexicoIndiaColombiaTurkeyIndonesiaHungarySingaporeTaiwanThailandMalaysia20%10%10%10%5%5%15%10%10%5%4100%4.977%69%3989%296%79%25%97%641%13%93%56%68%65%57%683%341%11%65%624%743%24%53%4.8450%583%93%-0.81%4.097%46%31.899%-6.126%-6.61100%47%4.024%19%4.77242%87%8%33%214%54%6%32%543%76%50%24%153%123%1%63%4.691%24%3%9%54%917%2%26%889%23%8%73%8%3%1%66%4.478%0%1%17%4.338%9.59.7**Realyieldsarecalculate***Duetodatalimitations,2yswapsareinsteadoTaiwan23%49%-0.8%97.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%7Mexico4%87%1.0%5.5%3.8%-0.1%0.1%1%65%1.2%2.4%2.7%-0.1%0.1%28%93%1.5%99.6%-0.5%0.0%-0.2%4-1%20%2.4%33.9%0.2%-0.1%0.1%914%93%2.4%5.9%-2.2%-0.1%0.1%1-3%18%0.3%73.7%8.4%-0.2%0.0%Malaysia4%68%-0.3%27.2%-1.1%-0.3%0.4%3Thailand7%84%-1.5%28.9%-1.8%-0.1%0.6%83%100%2.9%57.3%-0.4%-0.1%0.0%5%18%-0.6%32.2%-1.8%-2.0%-0.3%-4%62%3.6%99.2%8.3%0.0%0.1%6Turkey-6%63%0.9%63.7%30.7%-0.1%0.4%-2%1%1.9%48.5%-1.2%-0.5%-0.3%Hungary3%99%2.7%73.8%2.2%-0.1%0.0%3%100%1.8%44.3%0.1%-0.2%0.1%5-4%27%-0.5%32.2%3.0%0.0%0.7%-5%100%3.3%71.7%2.1%0.0%0.0%-5%43%1.3%32.4%1.5%-0.1%0.0%-3%1%-1.0%21.6%1.4%-0.1%0.3%a§ 4 7.97.97.87.57.3 14.4 7.97.97.87.57.3 11.611.411.411.313.213.012.4 12.012.011.913.012.410.610.610.510.410.310.110.09.79.19.08.48.2 6.9 6.0 4.5 2.1 SouthAfricaColombiaArgentinaSouthAfricaColombiaArgentina1614121086420婚§35 Mar-26Nov-25Oct-25Aug-25May-25Apr-25Mar-25Nov-24Oct-24MXMYTW56297888873695872710977560415576388697244299248452318