摩根士丹利-亚太中国金融：应用人工智能助力提升中国企业整体竞争力-AI adoption to help improve overall competitiveness of Chinese companies-20260505

MorganstanleyRESEARCH

May5,202609:00AMGMT

ChinaFinancials|AsiaPacific

AladoptiontohelpimproveoverallcompetitivenessofChinesecompanies

ChinaIsbankshavemovedbeyond“Alasapilot”intoenterprise-scaledeployment)embeddingAlintoawiderangeofbusinessoperations.Thiswillhelpthemexpandintomoreefficient

financialservicestoimproveoverallcompetitivenessofChinesecompanieswhilemaintainingstableROE.

BroadbasedAIadoptionalready:China'sbanksarealreadydisclosinglarge-scaleAIrolloutsacrossfront,middle,andbackofficefunctions,withAIembeddedinto

marketing,wealthmanagement,creditapproval,operations,customerservice,

softwaredevelopment,andriskcontrol.BanksarebuildingenterpriseAIplatforms,internalknowledgebases,digitalassistants,andworkflowtoolsthatarebeingusedacrossmultiplebusinesslinesratherthaninisolatedpilots.Thissuggeststhat

China'sbankshavealreadyenteredaphaseofscaledimplementation,whereAIisbecomingpartofcorebankinginfrastructureratherthanamarginalexperiment.

AIadoptionhelpsChina'sbanksexpandintomoreefficientfinancialservices,

improvingoverallcompetitivenessofChinesecompanieswhilemaintaining

stableROE:AIishelpingbanksimproveproductivity,reducemanualworkload,

strengthenriskmonitoring,andsupportcustomerinteraction.ThishascontinuedtohelpChina'sbanksexpandfinancialservicestomorecorporateandretailclients

withoutexpandingtheworkforce.Inaddition,AIadoptionhashelpedoffset

pressureonChina'sbanksinalowrateenvironmentinrecentyears.WealsoexpectAItohelpbanksbetterlocateandsupportcredit/financingdemandinthereal

economy,especiallycompanies,alongChina'scomplicatedfullindustrialsupply

chainsandmillionsofnewstartupfirmseachyear–byloweringfrictionalfinancingcosts,reducinginformationasymmetry,andimprovingaccessibility.

LargebankshaveinvestedheavilyinAI;bankswithstrongestabilityforquickerAIconversionshouldseeearlieroutcomes:FourSOEbankshavelargeabsoluteamountsinAIinvestment–Rmb25bn+ITexpenseseachin2025–around3-4%oftotalrevenue.However,webelievebanksthatgobeyondspendingandtranslateAIinvestmentintobroadinternaladoptionandmeasurableworkflowchangeswill

standout.WeseeICBC(601398.SS/1398.HK),CCB(601939.SS/0939.HK),andCMB(600036.SS/3968.HK)ascurrentleaders,pairinglargetechnologycommitment

withstrongexecutiondiscipline.WebelieveBankofNingbo(002142.SZ)willshowmorerevenuebenefitfromAIinvestment,supportingcontinuedmarketsharegains.Bankswithmoremeaningfulprogressinspecializedareasarecleardifferentiators–BOC(601988.SS/3988.HK)(AIassistantandRoboticProcessAutomation),BoCom(601328.SS/3328.HK)(supply-chainfinancingusecases),andSPDB(600000.SS)(AI-enabledSMEduediligence).

IDEA

MoRGANSTANLEyAsiALimiTED+RichardXu,CFA

EquityAnalyst

Richard.Xu@

+8522848-6729

BerylYang

ResearchAssociate

Beryl.Yang@

+8523963-2224

ChiyaoHuang

EquityAnalyst

Chiyao.Huang@

+8523963-4624

ChenqianLiu

ResearchAssociate

Chenqian.Liu@

+8523963-0359

CHiNAFiNANciALs

AsiaPacific

IndustryViewAttracti∨e

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson

communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

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Alhelpsbanksachievehigherefficiency,betterriskcontrol,andsuperiorservicequality

China'sbankshavebeenadoptingAIoverthepastseveralyears,withincreasingtechinvestment(around3-5%asapercentageoftotalrevenueforbankswe

cover)andstrategicdevelopmentinAI-enabledfunctionsacrossbusinesslines.WeidentifythreekeybenefitsfromAIadoptioninbanks'dailyoperationsinthenearterm,namely:

1.Efficiencyimprovement,

2.Riskcontrolenhancement,and

3.Servicequalityimprovement.

1)Efficiencyimprovementviareplacementorcompressionofmanualwork,notnecessarilyheadcountcuts

Inourview,themostdefiniteandeasy-to-achievefunctionofAIisimprovingefficiency

withthereplacementofrepetitiveandroutinemanualwork.SeveralbankshavealreadyquantifiedAIinlabor-equivalentorworkflowtermsintheirannualreports.Forexample,intheir2025annualreports:

•ICBCstatesthatitsAIdigitalworkforcehandledworkequivalentto55,000person-years;

•CMBsaysAIadoptionsaved15.56millionlaborhours;

•CCBreportsthatitsAI-enabledcreditapprovalworkflowreducedaveragenetapprovaltimebymorethan30%;

•BOCsaysitsenterpriseRoboticProcessAutomation("RPA")platformexecutescloseto300,000taskspermonth.

Thisenablesbankstocontinuetoexpandfinancialserviceswitharelativelystableworkforceratherthanasharpcutintotalstaffingatastill-earlystageofAI

investment:BanksareusingAItoabsorbrisingbusinesscomplexityandvolumewithoutmatchinggrowthinmanualstaffing.AIadoptioncouldeffectivelyresultinfewermanualtouchespertransactionandshorterprocessingtimeforthesameworkload,thusless

needtoaddincrementaloperationsstaffasvolumegrows.Forexample,PSBCindicatedsomedata-querytaskswerecompressedtothreeminutesandreportgenerationto20minutes,whichisadirectreductioninback-officeeffortperworkflow.Itcouldalsosparetimeforemployeeshandlinghuman-relatedbusinesswhichcannoteasilybereplacedbyAI,suchasrelationshipmanagersandservicestaff.

WhilethetotalnumberofemployeesinChina'sbanksremainedlargelystabledespitecontinuedAIinvestment,themixhasshiftedsomewhattowardstech-orAI-relatedstaff,whichaccountsfor6-13%oftotalstaffforsomebanks.Inaddition,professionalsare

essentialtoensureasmoothtransitionorleverageofAIacrossthebanks.

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Exhibit1:China'sbanks–TechinvestmentsChinabankstechinvestments

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Techinvestments(Rmbmn)%revenue

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit2:China'sbanks–totalemployeesandTechstaff%(2020vs2025)

500,000

450,000

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

16.0%

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

20202025Techstaff%(2025)

#totalemployees

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

2)EnhancedriskcontrolwithAIembeddedacrossthewholelendingprocess

China'sbanksaredeployingAIincreditscreening,frauddetection,AML,documentreview,post-loanmonitoring,remote-videoriskchecksandsmartapprovalprocesses.For

example,

•ICBCsaysitsenterpriseintelligentriskplatformalreadycoversnearly300risk-decisionscenarios;

•BoComhasbuiltarisktaglibrarywith25,000variablesand100+models;

•CCB’sAI-enabledcreditapprovalworkflowcanauto-generatelargeportionsofreviewreports;

•PABhasembeddedAIintoriskmiddleplatforms,auditsandfraudmonitoring.

WebelievetherelativelystableassetqualityofmostofChina'sbanks–regardlessof

differentcreditcyclesinrecentyears–canalsobepartlyattributedtotheleverageofAIforenhancedriskidentification.

3)Servicequalityimprovementandconversionboost,whichiskeyforcustomerretentionforbanks

Theofferingof24/7digitalservicing,lowerturnaroundtime,andbetterpersonalizationviaAIsupportindeedimprovescustomerexperiencewithtimelyresponseandcalibratedproduct/serviceoffering.Thiscouldhelpbankstocapturedemandandbusiness

opportunitieswhichusedtobeneglectowingtothelimitationofhumanforces.

•ICBChighlightsremote-bankandservice-assistantupgrades;

•BoComdeployedover2,500AIassistants,coveringretailandinclusivefinance,risk-basedcreditapproval,customerserviceandR&D.Itlaunchedintelligent

servicetoolsinmobileandcorporatebanking;

•IndustrialBanksaysitsAIcustomerservicehandledaround55millioncustomerinteractionsacross13channeltypesin2025;

•PSBCreportsthatitsdigitalemployeesnowcovercoremobile-bankingand

interactive-teller-machinescenarios,improvingofflineefficiencybyabout40%;

•BOCandABCemphasizeAI-enabledknowledgebasesandcustomersupport

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automation.

SomebanksalsoseemeaningfulbenefitsfromAIusageonwealthmanagement,retailengagementandSME/customeracquisition.

•PSBCreportedthatAI-poweredrecommendationmodelssupportedoverRmb6bnofpersonalcreditapprovalsandoverRmb1.4bnofwealth-productsales;

•ICBC,CITICandCMBalldescribeAIassistantsforwealth,marketingandcustomerinteraction.

Theimplicationsforindustryprofitabilityismeaningful:betterservicequalityimprovescustomerretention,supportswalletsharegrowth,andhelpsbanksdefendfeeincomeinanincreasinglycompetitivelandscape.

Whyhundredsofscenariosmatter?

China'sleadingbanksdisclosedhundredsofscenariocountsin

their2025annual

reports(seeExhibit3),coveringfront

office(i.e.,RM

coverage),middle

office(i.e.,approval

andreview),andbackoffice(i.e.,documentprocessing).We

believethemoreAI-embeddedscenariosareadded,themoresynergiescouldbe

achievedforabankasawhole–because

theyturnAIfrom

isolatedusecasesintoabank-wideoperating

Exhibit3:ChinabanksdisclosedhundredsofAIscenarios

Bank

AIscenarios

ICBC

500+AIapplicationsacross30+business

domains;Closeto300risk-decisionscenarios

CCB

398scaledscenarios

BOC

RPAcovers3,600+applicationscenarios;400+assistants

BoCom

2,500+AIagents

PSBC

260+large-modelscenarios

CMB

856scenariosand183domainmodels

SPDB

200+AIscenarios

CEB

1,700+RPAapplicationscenarios;880+modelscenarios

CITIC

120+large-modelscenarios

Industrial

260+AIapplicationscenarios

PAB

390+large-modelapplicationscenarios

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

platformthatcompoundsvalueacrosscustomerservice,risk,operations,development,andmanagement.

Inaddition,sharedplatformeconomicscouldbeachievedastheincrementalcostof

addinganotherscenarioismuchlower,leadingtohigherreturnsonfixedinvestmentincompute,dataandgovernance.Itcouldalsoleadtofasteradoptionandbehavioral

changesacrossthebanksandemployees.Thatiswherethelong-runefficiencygainsshouldcomefrom.

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AladoptionshouldhelpimproveoverallcompetitivenessofChinesecompanieswhilemaintainingstableROEforChina'sbanks

AIishelpingbankstoimproveproductivity,reducemanualworkload,strengthenriskmonitoring,andsupportcustomerinteraction.ThishascontinuedtohelpChina'sbanksexpandfinancialservicestomorecorporateandretailclientswithoutexpandingthe

workforce.

Inaddition,AIadoptionhashelpedtomaintainrelativelystablecost-incomeratio(CIR)forChina'sbanks,althoughtherehasnotyetbeenclearimprovementinCIR.Thiswas

achievedinlightofpressurefromalowrateenvironmentinrecentyearsbutincreasingcomplexityinproducts/servicesoffering.

Exhibit4:Banks'NIMcontinuedtodeclineinpastyears

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

2.20%

2.00%

1.80%

1.60%

1.40%

1.20%

BankingSectorNIM

Source:NFRA,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit5:Banks'cost-incomeratioremainedrelativelystablein2023-2025

AverageCIRforbankswecover

37.0%

36.0%

35.0%

34.0%

33.0%

32.0%

31.0%

30.0%

202020212022202320242025

Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch

Enhancementofbanks'capabilityinservingtherealeconomy,especiallycompaniesalongChina'sdecentralizedsupplychains

WealsoexpectAItohelpbankstobetterlocateandsupportcredit/financingdemandintherealeconomy,especiallycompaniesalongChina'scomplicatedfullindustrialsupplychainsandmillionsofnewstart-upfirmseachyear,withloweringfrictionalfinancing

costs,reducinginformationasymmetry,andimprovingaccessibility,notbymechanicallycuttingbenchmarkloanrates.

Forsupply-chainenterprises,especiallySMEsandasset-lightfirms,themainproblemis

oftennotonlythecouponrate–itisslowapproval,missingcollateral,poordatavisibility,repeateddocumentation,andweakcreditrecognition.Asdiscussedabove,whereAIcouldhelpisinservingabroaderclientbasewithmarginalcostsandlessinvolvementofhumanefforts.

•BoComusesAItoanalyzesupply-chaindataandprovidedynamicsupply-chainfinancingandpersonalizedinclusive-financesolutions.

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•ABC’scorporate/inclusiveproductscombinedigitalworkflowswithAI-enabledlendingmodels.

•SPDBsaysitusesAIanddigitalcustomerprofilingacrossthefullSMEjourney.

MoreaccuratepricingandmoretimelyresponsetocorporaterequestsenablebankstobetterservethedevelopmentofChina'ssupplychains,throughmoreaccuratecredit

resourceallocation.Thedecentralizedsupplychain,dottedacrossChina,wasformedbybothbigandsmallindustrialcompaniesinthepursuitofgreaterefficiency.Notably,thenumberofindustrialenterpriseswithannualrevenue>Rmb20mn,whichisthethresholdtobeincludedintheNationalBureauofStatisticsdata,reached525,759asofend-2025,withgrowthpickingupnotablysince2021.

Exhibit6:Thenumberofindustrialenterpriseswithannualrevenue>Rmb20mnreached525,759asofend-2025,withgrowthpickingupsince2020

YoY

525,759

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%-20%-30%

-40%

#industrialenterprises

Source:NBS,CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch

Industrialcyclesbynaturearecomplicatedandvolatilebecauseoftheever-changing

productsandtechlandscapeintheindustrialsector,notablecyclesinglobalproduct

demand,andastillcapital-heavyinvestmentmodel.Thecoordinatedpolicysupportfortheindustrialsectorssupportsquickindustrialupgradesandcreatesgloballeaders–butitcouldalsoequallyleadtomorelower-qualityinvestmentsbyweakerfirms.

Inaddition,weareseeingmorediversifiedindustrialcyclesfordifferentsectorsnow(seeExhibit7).Hence,thefinancialsystemplaysanessentialroletosupporttheongoing

industrialsectorexpansion,especiallyforindividualsub-sectors,aswellasmanagerelatedcreditrisks,whichwillbekeyforthesustainabilityofthegrowthmodel.WebelieveAI

adoptioncouldhelpenhancethefinancialsystem'sabilitytoidentifyrisksatearlystagesandsolvemorecomplicatedcasesinamoreefficientmanner.

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Exhibit7:84.1%(intermsofliabilities)ofsectorsslowedcapexinMarch2026vs.1H24;47.6%ofsectorsshowedbetterprofittrendsinMarch2026[updatedtoMarch2026]

Source:NBS,CEIC,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:numberin()representstheirmixintotalmanufacturingliabilities.

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LargebanksareleadinginAlinvestments;BankofNingboshowsthebestresults

LargebankshaveinvestedheavilyontheAIfrontwithstrongabilityforquickerAIconversion

BigSOEbankshavethelargestabsoluteamountinAIandtechnologyinvestment.

Notably,ICBC,CCB,BOC,andABCdisclosedmorethanRmb25bnoftechnology

investmentin2025.Allofthisreflectsascaleadvantagethatsmallerpeerscannoteasilyreplicate,whichalsoenablesthemtobuildenterprise-gradeinfrastructuresuchas

proprietarylarge-modelplatforms,integratedknowledgebases,cloudanddistributed

computingarchitecture,andAIagentframeworks.Withbroadercustomerbases,more

complexoperatingsystems,andatremendousamountofinternalandexternalusercases,AIcouldbeeasilydeployedacrossbusinesslinesratherthanisolatedpilots,inourview.

WethinkICBC,CCB,andCMBarecurrentleadersthatcouldpairlargetechnology

commitmentwithstrongexecutiondiscipline.Specifically,ICBCsaidAIdigitalemployeesarealreadytakingonworkequivalentto55,000person-yearsannually,withclearuse

casesininvestmentresearch,wealthmanagement,creditrisk,andoperations.CCBstatedthatitsAI-enabledcreditapprovalworkflowisreducingaveragemanualapprovaltimesbymorethan30%whilegeneratingahighproportionofdraftreviewcontentautomatically.Amongshareholdingbanks,CMBstandsoutwith15.56mnlaborhoursavingsin2025

fromAIdrivenefficiencygains.

AIinvestmentshouldfurtherenhanceBankofNingbo'sabilitytogainmarketshare

BankofNingbocontinuestointegratetechnologywithitscorebusinessesviaits

'Technology+'strategy,whichallowsthebanktomaintainitscompetitiveadvantagein

digitaltransformationacrossfinancialproducts,servicechannels,marketingandcustomermanagementaswellasoperationalriskcontrolreflectedinbothbetterfinancialandnon-financialproductsandmuchquickerreactiontimetoclientneedsandmarketchangesinITupgrades.

TherisingAIinvestmentswillfurtherstrengthenthebank'sfinancialandnonfinancialproductsuiteanditsalreadymoreefficientworkforce,whichwillfurtherstrengthenitsabilitytoserviceandacquirenewclients.Specifically:

•Deploymentoftechnology,includingAIandlargemodels,intothebank's

digitalproductsviaitsuniqueplatforms:Thebankhasnotonlybuiltasuiteoffinancialservice-relateddigitalproducts,butalsodevelopedmorenon-financial

serviceplatformsinrecentyears,byaggregatingdata,marketintelandexternal

resourcesinascalableway,toempowerthedailyoperationofcorporateandSMEcustomers.Forexample,BoBoZhiliaoisaone-stopplatformavailabletothebank'sclientbaseaggregatingprofessionalservicescoveringlegalconsul,taxadvising,

import/exportdata,utilitiesbillmanagement,marketingcampaignsolutions.(Seeourreportof17March2026:

BankofNingboCo.Ltd:SmallGemShinesBigAgain).

Webelievecontinuedtechinvestment(~5%oftotalrevenue)willleadtoquicker

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serviceandproductupgradesoftheseplatforms,aswellasenhancedabilityindatacollectionandanalysis,thusbettercustomerexperienceandretention.

•Intelligentriskmanagementandongoingdevelopmentofnext_generationriskmanagementsystems:Thebankisadvancingitsbig_datariskcontrolplatformbyintegratinginternalandexternaldatasourcesandapplyingAItechnologies.For

example,thebankhasimprovedtheprecisionofriskidentification,theefficiencyofdecisionsupportandthecoordinationofmanagementprocessesontechnical

Interoperabilityofitsbusinessintelligencetools,indicatorlineagetrackingand

knowledgegraphs.Withitsexistinginfrastructure,thebankcontinuestodevelopanewgenerationofcreditriskmanagementsystems,strengtheningsupportfor

creditoperationsandimprovingfront_officeoperationalefficiency.

•Strengtheningcloudanddigitalinfrastructure:Leveragingthe“NingboBank

Cloud”platform,thebankhasupgradeditsclient_facingdigitalservicesolutions,withaparticularfocusonenhancedsecurityprotectionandmonitoringcapabilities.Thishasreinforcedthereliabilityandscalabilityofitsdigitalinfrastructure.

Bankswithmoremeaningfulprogressinspecializedareasareclearlystrengthened

BanksthatcouldleverageAIiknexistingareaswithcompetitiveadvantagescoulddifferentiatethemselvesfromothers.

Forexample,BOCispairingAIwithitscross-borderandcorporatebankingstrengths,includingAIassistantsandRoboticProcessAutomation(RPA).Incross-borderbusiness,BOCcontinuestooptimizeandenrichfunctionsonitsGlobalTransactionBanking

platform(iGTB),whilealsoimprovingBoCPay+andBoCBillapplicationscenarios.

BoComusesAIwithinabroadersupply-chainandecosystemfinancemodel,supportinggovernment,SME,industrialparkandtechnologyinnovation.Notably,itsopen-banking/onlinechain-financeservicesprovidedRmb350.9bnoffinancingwith97,600institutionalclientssignedcumulativelyin2025.BoComalsostatesthatAIisbeingusedtoparse

industrial-chaindataandprovidedynamicsupply-chainfinancingandpersonalizedinclusivefinancesolutions.

SPDBapplieslarge-modelAIandtraditionalmachinelearningforSMEduediligenceandcreditworkflowautomation.ItsaysAIhasbeenappliedacross11stagesinthelendingprocesstoSMEclientsandtheefficiencyofSMEpre-lendingduediligencereport

generationimprovedbyover60%.

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