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MorganstanleyRESEARCH
May6,202609:00PMGMT
GreaterChinaTechnologyHardware|AsiaPacific
ThermalSolutions–2Q26
ModelTransitionlmpactBeganinApril
Earlier-than-expectedGBrelatedmodeltransitionin2Qcreatesanear-termheadwindbutimplieslikelysooner-than-expectedVRrelatedcontributionfrom3Q26.Thus,wesuggestrevisit
timingafter5-10%sharepricepullbacks,ifany.WestayOWonAVCandFositek,andEWonAurasandSunonwealth.
KeyTakeaways
AVCAprilrevenueofNT$15,631mn(-13%MoM,+72%YoY)was13%belowMSe,reflectingslowerpull-inforGB300coldplatemodules.
AurasAprilrevenueofNT$2,842mn(-15%MoM,+41%YoY)was15%belowMSe;itcitedholidayimpactatitsThailandsite.
FositekAprilrevenueofNT$1,353mn(-15%MoM,+59%YoY)wasinlinewithMSeassmartphonehingeshipmentsenteredthelateproductlifecycle.
SunonwealthAprilrevenueofNT$1,871mn(-2%MoM,+15%YoY)wasinlinewithMSe.
Modeltransitionimpactworthmonitoringbutnotseensignificant:GB300
relatedshipmentslowdownwasthekeydragforthethermalsupplychaininAprilandrecent2Q26outlookdownwardrevisions.However,wenowseeearlierandfasterrampsofVRrelatedshipmentslikelyfrom3Q26,inadditiontonewAIASICprojectrolloutsforAWSTrainium3inJuneandTPUadditionin2H26.
AsiaVitalComponents(AVC,3017.TW)–MarginuptrendboostsPTtoNT
$2,950:Although2Q26revenuemighttrendlowerthanthepriorguidedestimateatflattoslightupQoQ,weseeproductionyieldimprovementandfavorablemix
shiftdrivingprofithigher,especiallyaftervariousnewAIASICprojectrolloutsfrom2H26onward.Welowerour2026EPSestimatesfractionallybutraise2027and
2028by7%each.Ourpricetargetalsorises7%,toNT$2,950,implying23x2027eP/E.
Auras(3324.TWO)–Awaitingnewprojectwins;tweakPTtoNT$1,025:1Q26
earningsresultswereinlinewithourexpectationsformarginexpansionon
favorablemixandscalebenefits.However,weawaitfurtherconfirmationofnewVRrelatedprojectwins(coldplatemodule,manifold,etc.)thatcouldactaskeydriversforitsbusinessstrengthfrom2H26onward.Wereduceour2026earningsestimateby7%,and2027and2028by4%each.Ourpricetargetfalls5%toNT$1,025,
implying16x2027eP/E.
IDEA
MoRGANSTANLEyTAiwANLimiTEd+SharonShih
EquityAnalyst
Sharon.Shih@
+88622730-2865
SamanthaChenResearchAssociate
Samantha.Chen@
+88622730-2876
GREATERCHıNATEcHNoLoGyHARDwARE
AsiaPacific
IndustryViewın.Line
WHAT’sCHANGED
AsiaVitalComponentsCo.
Ltd.(3017.TW)
From
To
PriceTarget
NT$2,750.00
NT$2,950.00
AurasTechnologyCoLtd
(3324.TWO)
From
To
PriceTarget
NT$1,080.00
NT$1,025.00
MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith
companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley
Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley
Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.
+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson
communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.
2
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
CatalystEventReaction
Company/CatalystDate
Impacttothesis
Catalystversusexpectation
AurasTechnologyCoLtd3324.TWO
1Q26results06May2026
Takeaways:
Unchanged
In-line
•1Q26resultsin-line.
Aprilrevenueresults06May2026
Takeaways:
Unchanged
Meaningfuldownsidesurprise
•Aprilrevenuewas15%belowMSe.
AsiaVitalComponentsCo.Ltd.3017.TW
Aprilrevenueresults06May2026
Takeaways:
Unchanged
Meaningfuldownsidesurprise
•Aprilrevenuewas13%belowMSe.
FositekCorp6805.TW
Aprilrevenueresults06May2026
Takeaways:
Unchanged
In-line
•Aprilrevenuecameinin-linewithMSe.
SunonwealthElectricMachineIndustryCo2421
.TW
Aprilrevenueresults06May2026
Takeaways:
Unchanged
In-line
•Aprilrevenuecameinin-linewithMSe.
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–AsiaVitalComponentsCo.Ltd.(3017.TW)
CompleteproductofferingtocaptureAItrend
PRICETARGETNT$2,950.00
Basecase,derivedfromourmulti-stageresidualincome(RI)valuationmodel,similartotherestofourtechhardwarecoverageuniverse.Weassumeacostofequityof10%,amedium-termgrowthrateof13%andaterminalgrowthrateof3%.
NT$3,151.75
ConsensusPriceTargetDistribution
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
NT$2,150.00◆令NT$3,610.00
MSPT
MeanMorganStanleyEstimates
RISKREWARDCHART
NT$4,126.00(+69.45%)
NT$2,950.00(+21.15%)
NT$1,774.00(-27.15%)
0
MAY'25NOV'25MAY'26MAY'27
TWD
4000
3000
2000
1000
NT$2,435.00
Key:HistoricalStockPerformanceCurrentStockPricePriceTarget
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
OVERWEIGHTTHESIS
.WeexpectAVCtobenefitfromAIserverandliquidcoolingupgradesinviewof
theincreasingcontentvalueofthermalmodules.
.Weviewmarketconcernsaboutorderchangeimpactasoverdoneandseeprofitgrowthpotentialfromitsleadership
positioninserverthermalcomponents(2.5D/3DVCandcoldplatemodules).
.PotentialstandardizeddesignforVera
RubincomputingtrayslikelybodeswellforAVCasadirectconsignedNVIDIAvendor.
.Ourpricetargetimpliesthat2026eP/Eexpandsto31x,vs.itsone-yearaverageof21x.
ConsensusRatingDistribution
100%Overweight
0%
Equal-weight
0%
Underweight
MSRating
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
RiskRewardThemes
SecularGrowth:Positive
Self-help:Positive
ViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshere
BULLCASENT$4,126.00
44x2026ebase-caseEPS
Fastergrowthfromserver/datacenter
businesswithmarginexpansion:1)Faster-than-expectedthermaldesignupgradesfordatacenters,includingserversandswitchdesigns.2)Accelerating5Gnetwork
deploymentmomentum.3)Fastermarginexpansionfrombetterproductmix.
BASECASENT$2,950.00
31x2026ebase-caseEPS
Growthinliquidcoolingbusiness:1)Serverupgradesandsharegainstodriveserverbusinessrevenuegrowth.2)Dominant
supplyofcoldplatemodulesforNVIDIAserverracksandASICAIservers.3)2026revenueandgrossmarginareexpectedtogrowquarterbyquarterfrom1Q26.
NT$1,774.00
BEARCASE
19x2026ebase-caseEPS
Slowergrowthfromdatacenter/5G
businesswithmargincontraction:1)Slower-than-expectedthermaldesignupgradesfordatacenters,includingserversandswitchdesigns.2)Decelerating5Gnetwork
deploymentmomentum.3)Margin
contractionfromaworseningproductmix.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH3
4
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–AsiaVitalComponentsCo.Ltd.(3017.TW)
KEYEARNINGSINPUTS
Drivers
Telecomrevenuecontribution(%)
2025
5.3
2026e
2.1
2027e
1.7
2028e
1.4
Server/datacenterrevenuecontribution(%)
39.4
42.7
46.4
50.7
BlendedthermalASP(%)
97.3
36.8
(4.0)
8.2
INVESTMENTDRIVERS
·Serverdemand/sharegains
·Accelerating5Ginfrastructureconstruction·Marginexpansion
,Newcustomersandprojectwins
GLOBALREVENUEEXPOSURE
APAC,exJapan,Mainland
0-10%
10-20%
20-30%
30-40%
Chinaandlndia
EuropeexUK
NorthAmericaMainlandChina
Source:MorganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshere
MSALPHAMODELS
1/53MonthMOSTHorizon
Source:Refinitiv,FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch;1isthehighestfavoredQuintileand5istheleastfavoredQuintile
RISKSTOPT/RATING
RISKSTOUPSIDE
·Faster-than-expectedthermalupgrade
trendfordatacenters,includingserverandswitchdesigns
·Accelerating5Gnetworkdeploymentmomentum
·Better-than-expectedPC/NBdemandorsharegains
RISKSTODOWNSIDE
·Slower-than-expectedthermaldesigntrendfordatacenters,includingserverandswitch
designs
·Decelerating5Gnetworkdeploymentmomentum
·Intensifyingindustrycompetition
OWNERSHIPPOSITIONING
Inst.Owners,%Active53.5%Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
MSESTIMATESVS.CONSENSUS
FYDec2026e
Sales/Revenue
(NT$,mn)
214,483
236丿924
225,475
Netincome
(NT$,mn)
31丿389
36,911
35,860
38丿719
EPS
(NT$)
80.28
94.60
91.33
99.23
ROE
(%)
43.8
73.0
57.9
MeanMorganStanleyEstimatesSource:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH5
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–AurasTechnologyCoLtd(3324.TWO)
Benefitsfromliquidcoolingtrend,butfairlyvalued
PRICETARGETNT$1,025.00
Basecase,derivedfromamulti-stageresidualincome(RI)valuationmodel,similartotherestofourtechhardwarecoverageuniverse.Weassumeacostofequityof10%,amedium-termgrowthrateof12.5%andaterminalgrowthrateof3%.
NT$1,364.08
ConsensusPriceTargetDistribution
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
NT$1,025.00◆NT$1,740.00
MSPT
MeanMorganStanleyEstimates
RISKREWARDCHART
1200
NT$1,105.00
NT$1,025.00(-7.24%)900
600
NT$577.00(-47.78%)300
0
MAY'25NOV'25MAY'26MAY'27
NT$1,416.00(+28.14%)
TWD
Key:HistoricalStockPerformanceCurrentStockPricePriceTarget
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
EQUAL-WEIGHTTHESIS
.WethinkAuraswillbenefitfromserverspecupgradesandlong-termAIthermaldemand.
.2026revenueisexpectedtorise50%YoY,drivenmainlybytheliquidcoolingofferingincrease.
.WestayEWasweawaitliquidcoolingprojectkickofftimingandcontribution.
ConsensusRatingDistribution
75%Overweight25%Equal-weight
0%UnderweightMSRating
Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
RiskRewardThemes
PricingPower:Negative
SecularGrowth:Positive
Self-help:Positive
ViewdescriptionsofRiskRewardsThemeshere
NT$1,416.00
BULLCASE
24x2026ebase-caseEPS
Fasterheatpipe/VCadoptiondrivingASP
upside:Weassume:1)faster-than-expectedthermaldesignupgradesfordatacenters,includingbothserverandswitchdesigns;2)ASPupgradesinNB/PCandVGAthermalmodules;and3)increasingpenetrationofvaporchambersinsmartphones.
NT$1,025.00
BASECASE
18x2026ebase-caseEPS
2026revenuetogrow>50%YoYforliquidcoolingofferings:Weexpectserverbusinessandliquidcoolingtocontinuetobethe
majordriverin2026.Grossmarginis
indicatedbymanagementtowidenfurtherYoY,thankstoafavorableproductmix.
NT$577.00
BEARCASE
10x2026ebase-caseEPS
SlowerPC/NBandVGAdemandrecovery,whileindustrycompetitionintensifies:Weassume:1)slower-than-expectedthermaldesignupgradesfordatacenters,includingbothserverandswitchdesign;2)severepricingpressurefromintensifiedindustrycompetition;and3)aslowdowninPCorVGA/graphiccardmarkets.
6
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
RiskReward–AurasTechnologyCoLtd(3324.TWO)
KEYEARNINGSINPUTS
Drivers
Smartphonerevenuecontribution(%)
2025
1.2
2026e
0.4
2027e
0.4
2028e
0.3
BlendedASPYoY(%)
63.7
88.9
11.3
7.1
INVESTMENTDRIVERS
·Heatpipe/VCadoptioninsmartphones·Serverdemand/sharegains
·GamingPC/NBdemandstrength·Newcustomersandprojectwins
EuropeexUK
NorthAmerica
APAC,exJapan,Mainland
GLOBALREVENUEEXPOSURE
Chinaandlndia
MainlandChina
0-10%0-10%
20-30%50-60%
Source:MorganStanleyResearchEstimateViewexplanationofregionalhierarchieshere
MSALPHAMODELS
3/53MonthMOSTHorizon
Source:Refinitiv,FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch;1isthehighestfavoredQuintileand5istheleastfavoredQuintile
FYDec2026e
Sales/Revenue
(NT$,mn)
38,920
34,18140,729
35,925
Netincome
(NT$,mn)
5,407
4,5935,714
5,213
EPS
(NT$)
50.30
58.09
56.90
62.42
ROE
(%)
35.4
41.8
47.0
47.3
RISKSTOPT/RATING
RISKSTOUPSIDE
·Faster-than-expectedthermaldesignupgradesfordatacenters,includingbothserverand
switchdesigns.
·ASPupgradesinNB/PCandVGAthermalmodules.
·lncreasingpenetrationofvaporchambersinsmartphones.
RISKSTODOWNSIDE
·Slower-than-expectedthermaldesignupgradesfordatacenters.
·Severepricingpressurefromintensifiedindustrycompetition.
,AslowdowninPCorVGA/graphiccardmarket.
OWNERSHIPPOSITIONING
Inst.Owners,%Active49.1%Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
MSESTIMATESVS.CONSENSUS
MeanMorganStanleyEstimatesSource:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH7
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
AVC:EstimateChanges
Our2026earningsestimatefallsfractionally,while2027and2028rise7%eachduetohighergrossmarginassumptionsonabetterproductmix.
Exhibit1:AVC:Estimatechanges
NT$mn
2026eEarningsEstimates
2027eEarningsEstimates
2028eEarningsEstimates
New
Old
Variance
New
Old
Variance
New
Old
Variance
Netsales
214,483
220,065
-3%
270,597
267,246
1%
333,193
329,717
1%
COGS
-150,671
-155,208
-3%
-185,899
-185,596
0%
-224,212
-225,185
0%
Grossprofit
63,812
64,857
-2%
84,698
81,650
4%
108,981
104,532
4%
Operatingexpenses
-11,011
-11,826
-7%
-12,639
-13,827
-9%
-14,693
-16,105
-9%
Operatingincome
52,801
53,031
0%
72,059
67,823
6%
94,288
88,427
7%
Non-operatingincome
675
675
0%
675
675
0%
675
675
0%
Pre-taxincome
53,476
53,706
0%
72,734
68,498
6%
94,963
89,102
7%
Incometax
-14,425
-14,498
-1%
-19,664
-18,522
6%
-25,664
-24,080
7%
Netincome
36,911
37,068
0%
50,502
47,408
7%
66,217
61,941
7%
EPS(NT$)
94.60
95.00
0%
129.43
121.50
7%
169.71
158.75
7%
Margins(%)
ppt
ppt
ppt
Grossmargin
29.8%
29.5%
0.3
31.3%
30.6%
0.7
32.7%
31.7%
1.0
Operatingmargin
24.6%
24.1%
0.5
26.6%
25.4%
1.3
28.3%
26.8%
1.5
Pre-taxmargin
24.9%
24.4%
0.5
26.9%
25.6%
1.2
28.5%
27.0%
1.5
Netmargin
17.2%
16.8%
0.4
18.7%
17.7%
0.9
19.9%
18.8%
1.1
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
PriceTargetandValuationMethodology
WeraiseourpricetargetforAVCfromNT$2,750toNT$2,950(+7%),reflectingour
estimaterevisionsfor2026-28.Ourpricetargetisourbasecasescenariovaluederivedfromaresidualincome(RI)model,similartotherestofourtechhardwarecoverage
universe.
Ourpricetargetimplies29x2026eP/E.WeexpectAVCtobeoneofthedirectconsignedcoldplatemodulesuppliersforNVIDIA'sRubinplatform.
Ourkeyassumptionsareunchangedatacostofequityof10%(betaof1.3,equityriskpremiumof8%,andrisk-freerateof0.5%),medium-termgrowthrateof13%,and
terminalgrowthrateof3%.
Ourbullandbearcasevaluesrise7%each,toNT$4,126andNT$1,774,inlinewiththeincreaseinourbasecasevalue.
Exhibit2:AVC:ResidualIncome(RI)Model
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates
8
RESEARCH
Morganstanley
Financialsummary
Exhibit3:AVC:FinancialsummaryIncomeStatement
NT$mn;FYEndDec
2025
2026E
2027E
2028E
Netsales
139,639
214,483
270,597
333,193
COGS
-103,605
-150,671
-185,899
-224,212
Grossprofit
36,034
63,812
84,698
108,981
Operatingexpenses
-8,292
-10,916
-12,544
-14,598
-Promotion
-1,589
-2,197
-2,467
-2,769
-ADM
-1,311
-1,637
-1,919
-2,214
-R&D
-5,392
-7,082
-8,158
-9,615
Operatingincome
27,742
52,896
72,154
94,383
Non-operatingincome
1173
675
675
675
Interestincome
153
475
475
475
Investmentincome
0
0
0
0
Disposalofinvestment
11
0
0
0
Disposaloffixedassets
-384
0
0
0
Exchangegain
723
0
0
0
Other
670
200
200
200
Pre-taxincome
28,916
53,571
72,829
95,058
Incometax
-9,787
-16,660
-22,326
-28,840
Netincome
19,129
36,911
50,502
66,217
EPS(NT$)
49.03
94.60
129.43
169.71
DilutedEPS(NT$)
48.86
94.29
129.01
169.15
BalanceSheet
NT$mn
2025
2026E
2027E
2028E
Cash
58,530
79,325
102,942
138,108
Mktsecurities
1,912
1,912
1,912
1,912
Accounts/Notesreceivables
12,133
18,636
23,511
28,950
Inventory
49,572
72,092
88,947
107,279
Othercurrentassets
4,029
4,029
4,029
4,029
CurrentAssets
126,176
175,994
221,342
280,279
Long-terminvestments
986
986
986
986
Fixedassets
17,849
29,603
43,357
57,111
Otherassets
15,125
15,125
15,125
15,125
TotalAssets
160,137
221,708
280,810
353,501
S/Tborrowings
15,111
15,111
15,111
15,111
AP/NP
48,109
69,964
86,322
104,113
OtherSTliabilities
34,275
44,513
51,095
59,399
Otherliabilities
5,128
5,128
5,128
5,128
L/Tdebt
6,949
6,949
6,949
6,949
TotalLiabilities
109,572
141,664
164,605
190,699
Commonshares
3,907
3,983
3,983
3,983
CapitalCollection
76
0
0
0
APIC
2,728
2,728
2,728
2,728
Retainedearnings
35,417
64,896
101,057
147,654
TreasuryStock
0
0
0
0
Othershareholders'equity
8437
8437
8437
8437
Shareholders'equity
50,565
80,043
116,205
162,802
TotalLiab./Shrhldr'sEquity
160,137
221,708
280,810
353,501
IdeA
CashFlowStatement
NT$mn
2025
2026E
2027E
2028E
Cashflowfromoperations
39,415
43,227
54,958
71,788
NetProfits
20,951
36,911
50,502
66,217
Depreciation
3,246
3,246
3,246
3,246
Equityinvestmentlosses(income)
0
0
0
0
Otheradjustments
15,219
3,070
1,209
2,324
Cashflowfrominvesting
-13,336
-15,000
-17,000
-17,000
(Purchases)saleofFA(capex)
-7,264
-15,000
-17,000
-17,000
(Purchases)saleofL/Tinvestment
217
0
0
0
(Purchases)saleofS/Tinvestment
0
0
0
0
Otheradjustments
-6,289
0
0
0
Cashflowfromfinancing
2,620
-7,432
-14,340
-19,621
IncreaseinL/Tdebt
3,677
0
0
0
IncreaseinS/Tdebt
5,777
0
0
0
Issuanceofstock
0
0
0
0
Cashdividends
-3,877
-7,023
-13,552
-18,542
Dir.&Emp.Bonus
0
0
0
0
ChangesinTreasuryStocks
0
0
0
0
Otheradjustments
-2,672
0
0
0
Exchangerateadjustment
-93
0
0
0
Netchangeincash
28,606
20,795
23,617
35,166
FinancialRatios
2025
2026E
2027E
2028E
Margins
Grossmargin
25.8%
29.8%
31.3%
32.7%
Operatingmargin
19.9%
24.7%
26.7%
28.3%
Pretaxmargin
20.7%
25.0%
26.9%
28.5%
Netmargin
13.7%
17.2%
18.7%
19.9%
YoYgrowth
Sales
94.6%
53.6%
26.2%
23.1%
Operatingprofits
155.0%
90.7%
36.4%
30.8%
Pretaxprofits
145.3%
85.3%
35.9%
30.5%
Netprofits
153.2%
93.0%
36.8%
31.1%
EPS
150.0%
93.0%
36.8%
31.1%
NetDebt/Equity(Netofmktsecs.)
-76%
-74%
-71%
-72%
NetDebt/Equity
-72%
-72%
-70%
-71%
Liabilities/Equity
217%
177%
142%
117%
Liabilities/Assets
68%
64%
59%
54%
ROAE
45.5%
56.5%
51.5%
47.5%
ROAA
14.7%
19.3%
20.1%
20.9%
AR/NRTurnover(days)
26
26
28
29
AP/NPTurnover(days)
136
143
153
155
InventoryTurnover(days)
146
147
158
160
Cashconversioncycle(days)
37
31
33
33
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Exhibit4:AVC:Quarterlyfinancialsummary
NT$mn1Q26E2Q26E3Q26E4Q26E1Q27E2Q27E3Q27E4Q27E20252026E2027E
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH9
Sales
49,038
50,058
56,493
58,894
58,258
63,852
72,313
76,175
139,639
214,483
270,597
COGS
-34,738
-35,295
-39,685
-40,953
-40,540
-44,119
-49,340
-51,900
-103,605
-150,671
-185,899
Grossprofit
14,299
14,763
16,808
17,941
17,718
19,733
22,973
24,275
36,034
63,812
84,698
Operatingexpenses
-2,577
-2,619
-2,816
-2,999
-2,831
-2,972
-3,279
-3,557
-8,478
-11,011
-12,639
-Promotion
-524
-524
-562
-586
-568
-579
-643
-677
-1,589
-2,197
-2,467
-ADM
-387
-395
-415
-440
-426
-481
-496
-516
-1,311
-1,637
-1,919
-R&D
-1,642
-1,676
-1,815
-1,949
-1,813
-1,888
-2,116
-2,341
-5,392
-7,082
-8,158
Operatingprofit
11,723
12,144
13,992
14,942
14,887
16,761
19,694
20,717
27,556
52,801
72,059
Non-operatingincome
169
169
169
169
169
169
169
169
1,173
675
675
Interestincome
119
119
119
119
119
119
119
119
153
475
475
Investmentincome
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Disposalofinvestment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
0
0
Disposaloffixedassets
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-384
0
0
Exchangegain
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
723
0
0
Other
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
670
200
200
Pre-taxprofit
11,892
12,313
14,161
15,111
15,055
16,930
19,863
20,886
28,729
53,476
72,734
Incometax
-2,858
-3,392
-3,976
-4,199
-3,618
-4,664
-5,578
-5,804
-7,836
-14,425
-19,664
Netprofit
8,664
8,583
9,500
10,164
10,993
11,861
13,464
14,185
19,129
36,911
50,502
Adj.wtd.avg.shrs(m)
390
390
390
390
390
390
390
390
390
390
390
EPS(NT$)
22.20
22.00
24.35
26.05
28.17
30.40
34.51
36.35
49.03
94.60
129.43
Margins
Grossmargin
29.2%
29.5%
29.8%
30.5%
30.4%
30.9%
31.8%
31.9%
25.8%
29.8%
31.3%
Operatingmargin
23.9%
24.3%
24.8%
25.4%
25.6%
26.2%
27.2%
27.2%
19.7%
24.6%
26.6%
Pre-taxmargin
24.2%
24.6%
25.1%
25.7%
25.8%
26.5%
27.5%
27.4%
20.6%
24.9%
26.9%
Netmargin
17.7%
17.1%
16.8%
17.3%
18.9%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
13.7%
17.2%
18.7%
QoQGrowth
Sales
2.6%
2.1%
12.9%
4.3%
-1.1%
9.6%
13.3%
5.3%
Grossprofit
13.4%
3.2%
13.9%
6.7%
-1.2%
11.4%
16.4%
5.7%
Operatingprofit
17.1%
3.6%
15.2%
6.8%
-0.4%
12.6%
17.5%
5.2%
Pre-taxprofit
18.3%
3.5%
15.0%
6.7%
-0.4%
12.4%
17.3%
5.2%
Netprofit
30.6%
-0.9%
10.7%
7.0%
8.2%
7.9%
13.5%
5.4%
YoYGrowth
Sales
110%
69%
45%
23%
19%
28%
28%
29%
95%
54%
26%
Grossprofit
137%
104%
65%
42%
24%
34%
37%
35%
114%
77%
33%
Operatingprofit
169%
138%
73%
49%
27%
38%
41%
39%
155%
92%
36%
Pre-taxprofit
157%
109%
72%
50%
27%
37%
40%
38%
145%
86%
36%
Netprofit
170%
115%
78%
53%
27%
38%
42%
40%
153%
93%
37%
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates.
10
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IDEA
Auras:EstimateChanges
Welowerour2026,2027and2028EPSestimatesby7%,4%and4%,respectively,reflectinglowerrevenueforecastsamidVeraRubinprojectuncertainty.
Exhibit5:Auras:Estimatechanges
NT$mn
2026eEarningsEstimates
2027e
EarningsEstimates
2028e
EarningsEstimates
New
Old
Variance
New
Old
Variance
New
Old
Variance
Netsales
38,920
40,729
-4%
44,479
45,989
-3%
51,893
53,924
-4%
COGS
-27,403
-28,681
-4%
-31,269
-32,301
-3%
-36,371
-37,762
-4%
Grossprofit
11,517
12,048
-4%
13,211
13,689
-3%
15,522
16,162
-4%
Operatingexpenses
-4,533
-4,929
-8%
-5,292
-5,845
-9%
-6,300
-6,990
-10%
Operatingincome
6,984
7,119
-2%
7,919
7,844
1%
9,222
9,172
1%
Non-operatingincome
148
130
14%
130
130
0%
130
130
0%
Pre-taxincome
7,132
7,249
-2%
8,049
7,973
1%
9,351
9,302
1%
Incometax
-1,319
-1,366
-3%
-1,495
-1,500
0%
-1,738
-1,752
-1%
Netincome
5,407
5,700
-5%
6,148
6,290
-2%
7,208
7,367
-2%
EPS(NT$)
58.09
62.42
-7%
66.06
68.89
-4%
77.44
80.68
-4%
Margins(%)
ppt
ppt
ppt
Grossmargin
29.6%
29.6%
0.0
29.7%
29.8%
-0.1
29.9%
30.0%
-0.1
Operatingmargin
17.9%
17.5%
0.5
17.8%
17.1%
0.7
17.8%
17.0%
0.8
Pre-taxmargin
18.3%
17.8%
0.5
18.1%
17.3%
0.8
18.0%
17.3%
0.8
Netmargin
13.9%
14.0%
-0.1
13.8%
13.7%
0.1
13.9%
13.7%
0.2
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.
PriceTargetandValuationMethodology
WelowerourpricetargetforAurasby5%,fromNT$1,080toNT$1,025,reflectingour
reducedearningsestimates.Ourpricetargetisourbasecasescenariovalue,derivedfromaresidualincome(RI)model,similartotherestofourtechhardwarecoverageuniverse.
Ourkeyassumptionsareunchanged:acostofequityof10%(betaof1.3,equityriskpremiumof8%,andrisk-freerateof0.5%),amedium-termgrowthrateof12.5%andaterminalgrowthrateof3%.
Ourpricetargetimplies18x2026eP/E,whichweviewasfairrelativetothestock’stradingaverageof19xsince2023.
Ourbullandbearcasevaluesfall5%each,toNT$1,416andNT$577,inlinewiththedecreaseinourbasecasevalue.
MoRGANSTANLEyREsEARcH11
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
IdeA
Exhibit6:Auras:Residualincome(RI)model
Source:MorganStanleyResearch.MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimates.
FinancialSummary
12
RESEARCH
Morganstanley
Exhibit7:Auras:FinancialsummaryIncomeStatement
NT$mn;FYEndDec
2025
2026E
2027E
2028E
Netsales
23,276
38,920
44,479
51,893
COGS
-16,904
-27,403
-31,269
-36,371
Grossprofit
6,372
11,517
13,211
15,522
Operatingexpenses
-3,111
-4,528
-5,292
-6,300
-Promotion
-827
-1,334
-1,435
-1,715
-ADM
-875
-1,102
-1,120
-1,223
-R&D
-1,410
-2,092
-2,737
-3,362
Operatingincome
3,261
6,989
7,919
9,222
Non-operatingincome
19
148
130
130
Interestincome
-30
-70
-70
-70
Investmentincome
41
0
0
0
Disposalofinvestment
0
0
0
0
Disposaloffixedassets
-20
0
0
0
Exchangegain
-148
0
0
0
Other
176
218
200
200
Pre-taxincome
3,279
7,137
8,049
9,351
Incometax
-707
-1,730
-1,900
-2,144
Netincome
2,572
5,407
6,148
7,208
EPS(NT$)
28.26
58.09
66.06
77.44
DilutedEPS(NT$)
26.84
55.24
62.81
73.64
BalanceSheet
NT$mn
2025
2026E
2027E
2028E
Cash
1,439
1,162
3,706
6,494
Mktsecurities
0
0
0
0
Accounts/Notesreceivables
10,068
16,835
19,240
22,447
Inventory
6,057
9,820
11,205
13,033
Othercurrentassets
1,023
1,023
1,023
1,023
CurrentAssets
18,587
28,840
35,174
42,996
Long-terminvestments
730
730
730
730
Fixedassets
6,150
5,978
5,806
5,634
Otherassets
657
657
657
657
TotalAssets
26,125
36,205
42,367
50,018
S/Tborrowings
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