伯恩斯坦-人工智能：AI数据中心连接领域争夺战内幕-ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE：INSIDE THE WAR FOR AI DATA CENTER CONNECTIVITY-20260510

on10-May-2026

MAY2026

ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE:INSIDETHEWARFORAIDATACENTER

CONNECTIVITY

FromPCBtocoppertoopticallinks,connectivityisthebackboneofAIperformance.

Connectivityisthenewbottleneckandbattleground.AIdatacentersareshiftingfromcompute-boundtoconnectivity-boundarchitectures,elevatingthestrategicimportanceofelectricalandopticalinterconnectsacrossbothscale-upandscale-outnetworks.

AIconnectivityliftsboard,substrate,andmaterialscontent.Higherspeedsanddensitiesaredrivingstructuralgrowthinmulti-layerprintedcircuitboard,HDI,andABFsubstrates,whiletightsupplyofcriticalmaterialsreinforcesnear-termearningsmomentumdespitecompetitivepressuresbeyond2026.

CPO’spromiseisclearandwillstartfromscale-out.Co-packagedoptics(CPO)deliversuperiorpowerefficiencyandsignalintegrity,yetfacecost,yield,andserviceabilityhurdles.Weseescale-outdeploymentsfrom2H26,withcopperremainingdominantinscale-upoverthenextthreeyears.

Valuecreationspansacomplex,evolvingsupplychain.Thetransitiontowardadvancedconnectivityreshapeseconomicsacrossopticalengines,lasers,fiberarrayunits,PCBs,andtestingequipment,favoringtechnologyleaderswithmanufacturingdepthandecosystemcontrol.

SeeDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications

Published:08May202620:05UTC|Revised08May202620:05UTC

on10-May-2026

on10-May-2026

BERNSTEINlsocIeTecENeRAlECROUP

OVERVIEW

AIdatacentersarenolongerconstrainedbycomputepoweralone;datamovementwithinandbetweenrackshasbecometheprimarybottleneck.Connectivityisnowakeyperformanceandinvestmentfrontieracrossbothelectricalandopticaldomains.NVIDIA’sroadmapconfirmsthatcopperandopticalinterconnectswillcoexist,eachoptimizedfordifferentdistanceandpowerneeds.Forinvestors,thefocusisnotwhichtechnologywins,buthoweachcapturesvalueacrossthesupplychainandoverwhattimeline.ThisWhitebookoutlinesthekeytechnologytrends,economics,andsupplierpositioningshapingscale-upandscale-outconnectivity.

Chapterstitled“Co-PackagedOptics:InsidetheWarforDataCenterConnectivity”and“MappingtheCPOValueChain”ofthisWhitebookexplorethestrategicvalue,adoptionschedule,andsupplychainofco-packagedoptics(CPO).CPOintegratesopticalengines(OEs)closertoswitch/AIchips,improvingpowerefficiencyandsignalintegrity.But,adoptionfaceschallengesinserviceability,manufacturingyield,testingcomplexity,andsupplierconcentration.Weexpectsmall-volumeCPOdeploymentinscale-outnetworksstarting2H26,withcopperremainingmainstreamforscale-upover2026-27.Also,CPOcostislikely~10%overpluggableopticsaftersystemmargins.CPOmanufacturingandtestingarechallenging,favoringtechnologyleaders.

WebelieveTSMC’sCOmpactUniversalPhotonicEngine(COUPE)willbecomethemainplatform.ThetransitiontoCPOwilllikelybenefitOE,laser,fiberarrayunit,andequipmentvendors(suchasChroma).Forscale-upsolutions,copperwilllikelyremainthemainstreamover2026-28,andco-packagedcopper(CPC)islikelytoextenditslifecycle,benefitingplayerssuchasLuxshare.

Chapterstitled“AIPCBPrimer:TechnologyandSupplyChain”and“AIPCBPrimer:Players,Positioning,andProfitability”ofthisWhitebookexploretheadvancementofprintedcircuitboard(PCB)andintegratedcircuit(IC)substratesectorsamidtheAIwave.WithinAIserverracks,connectivityadvancesalsohingeonboardsandsubstratesthatsustainhighersignalspeedsanddensities,liftingcontentvalueformulti-layerPCB,high-densityinterconnect(HDI)boards,andAjinomotoBuild-upFilm(ABF)substrates.CriticalmaterialssuchasT-glass,ABFfilm,high-endcopperfoil,andcopper-cladlaminates(CCLs)areshapingsupply-chaindynamics.Asof2025,AIserverdemandhasalreadyfueled50-100%revenuegrowthforseveralPCBandmaterialssuppliers.Marginexpansionmaymoderatefromlate2026amidintensifyingcompetition,capacityadditions,andrisingdepreciation.Nevertheless,newproductcycles(e.g.,midplanesandbackplanes),tightT-glasssupply,andgrowingApplication-specificIntegratedCircuit(ASIC)demandshouldsustainearningsmomentumfortechnologyleaders.

AlexWang

alex.wang@

+85221232613

StacyA.Rasgon,Ph.D.

stacy.rasgon@

+12135595917

MarkLi

mark.li@

+85221232645

DavidDai,CFA

david.dai@

+85229185704

EuanMcLeish

euan.mcleish@

+81359629611

ShirleyYang

shirley.yang@

+85221232660

EthanXu

ethan.xu@

+85221232634

May9,2026

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TABLEOFCONTENTS

CO-PACKAGEDOPTICS:INSIDETHEWARFORDATACENTERCONNECTIVITY5

MAPPINGTHECPOVALUECHAIN25

AIPCBPRIMER:TECHNOLOGYANDSUPPLYCHAIN43

AIPCBPRIMER:PLAYERS,POSITIONING,ANDPROFITABILITY63

INVESTMENTOUTLOOK85

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CO-PACKAGEDOPTICS:INSIDETHEWARFORDATACENTERCONNECTIVITY5

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CO-PACKAGEDOPTICS:INSIDETHEWARFORDATACENTERCONNECTIVITY

COPPERANDOPTICAL

TECHNOLOGIESEVOLVETOGETHERFORAIDATACENTERCONNECTIVITY

WhydoesCPOmatter?Byintegratingoptimalengines(OEs)withacceleratedprocessingunits(XPUs)orswitchchips,CPOofferssuperiorpowerefficiency,signalintegrity,andnetworkresiliencycomparedtopluggableopticaltransceivers.NVIDIAtargets3.5xmorepowerefficiencyand10xbetternetworkresiliencycomparedtopluggablesolutions,withinitialdeploymentguidedforlate2026withthreepartners.Broadcomisalreadyonitsthird-generationCPOswitchandLumentum(notcovered)hasconfirmedseveralhundredmilliondollarsofCPOproductordersforshipmentin2027.

CPOadoptionfacesmeaningfulobstacles,includingmanufacturingyield,testcomplexity,fibercoupling,andcloudserviceprovider(CSP)concernsaroundserviceabilityandvendorconcentration.NVIDIAandBroadcomareexpectedtouseTSMC’sCOUPEtechnologytobondelectronicandphotonicdies,withFAUsandmicro-opticspreciselyalignedontop.Comparedwithpluggableopticaltransceivers,thisapproachimprovesperformance,powerefficiency,bandwidthdensity,andreliability.However,failuresmayrequireswappinganentireswitch,increasingdowntimeandoperationalimpact.TheCPOmarketisalsolikelytobefarmoreconcentratedthantoday’spluggableopticsecosystem,reducingCSPbargainingpower.

MassadoptionofCPOwilllikelytaketime,startingwithscale-out.NVIDIA’s“CPO”architectureisclosertonear-packageoptics(NPO),whichusesdetachableOEstoimproveserviceability.Interimsolutionssuchaslinearpluggableoptics(LPO)cancutpowerconsumptionbyroughlytwo-thirdsversustraditionalpluggables,providingabridgewhileCPOmatures.WeexpectCPOandNPOtobeginshippinginsmallvolumesin2H26forscale-outapplications.Bycontrast,weremainmoreconservativeonscale-upadoption,astheindustryneedsadditionaltimetovalidateCPOreliabilityunderreal-worldconditionsbeforeintegratingitintohigh-valueXPUs.Thatsaid,weexpectincreasedvisibilityonCPOtechnologyprogressandcustomeradoptionplansoverthenext12months.

WeexpectCSPstofavorpluggableopticaltransceiversoverCPOinthenexttwotothreeyears.Whileinvestorsworryaboutthelong-termroleofpluggablevendors,newtechnologiesintheAIdatacenter,suchashigh-voltagedirectcurrent(HVDC)power,PCBbackplanes,Chip-on-Wafer-on-Panel(CoWoP),andmicro-channellid,haveconsistentlytakentimetomature.Thisisbecausereliabilityandsupply-chainrobustnessmatterasmuchasthetheoreticalbenefitsofnewdesigns.Forscale-upsolution,copperwilllikelyremainthemainstreamover2026-27,andCPCislikelytoextenditslifecycle,benefitingplayerssuchasLuxshare(Outperform).

MAINSTREAMCONNECTIONSOLUTIONSINAIDC

COPPERANDOPTICSARETHEInrecentyears,AIadvancementhascloselyfollowedthescalinglaw:increasingcomputepower,trainingdata,andmodelparametersgenerallyleadstobetterperformance.Consequently,AIinfrastructurehasexpandedrapidlythroughtwodistinctmodels—scale-upandscale-out.Scale-upreferstoaddingresourceswithinasinglesystem,suchasinstallingmoreAI

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acceleratorswithinarackornodetoboostperformance.Scale-out,bycontrast,expandscapacitybyconnectingmorerackstoformlargerclustersinanartificialintelligencedatacenter(AIDC).

Thisexponentialgrowthincomputingpowerhasdrivenunprecedenteddemandforinterconnectbandwidth.Scale-uparchitectures,inparticular,requiremuchhigherbandwidththanscale-outsystemsbecauselarge-language-model(LLM)trainingdependsonparallelcomputingmethodssuchastensorandexpertparallelism—bothofwhichinvolveintensivedataexchangewithintightlycoupledscale-uppods.

Currently,copperandopticsrepresentthetwoprimaryconnectionmethodsinAIdatacenters.Copperinterconnectsareprimarilyutilizedforintra-rackconnectivityinscale-upscenarios.Ontheotherhand,opticallinksdeliverhighbandwidth(≥224Gbps)andlongreach(≥10meters)withlowattenuationandterabitscalability.Therefore,theyserveasthemainstreamsolutionforinter-racklinksinscale-outarchitectures.InNVIDIA’sGB300,forexample,communicationbetweentheSuperchip(GPU+CPU)andtheswitchchipreliesoncopperlinks,whiletheConnectXnetworkinterfacecard(NIC)onthecomputetrayconnectsto800Gb/sopticaltransceivers.ThesetransceiversconvertelectricalsignalsintoopticalsignalsandlinkthesystemtoeitherQuantum-XInfiniBandorSpectrum-XEthernetfabricsforscale-outconnectivity.

Over2000-25,switchcapacitygrewat40%ayearwithnosignofdecelerationamidtherapidevolutionofAIacceleratorsandthesurgeindatamovement.Serializer-Deserializer(SerDes)drivesshort-reachelectricaltracesorcablesintoanopticalmodulethatthenconvertselectricalsignalstoopticalsignalsforlonger-distancelinks.SerDesper-laneI/Obandwidthhasincreasedmuchmoreslowlythanoverallswitchthroughput,forcingvendorstoaddmorelanesperswitch.Asaresult,thenumberofopticallinksandmodulesgrowsevenfasterthanswitchshipmentsthemselves.Annualshipmentsof800Gmoduleshit10millionby2025,markinganewrecord,comparedtoadecadefor100Gmodules.With1.6Ttransceiversnowinmassproduction,Coherent(COHR,notcovered)andLightCountingexpectitwilltakeonlyfouryearstoreach10millionunitssales,creatingmeaningfulrevenueupsideforopticalcomponentsuppliersby2026(Exhibit1).

Drivenbysurgingshipmentvolumeandaveragesellingprice(ASP)tailwindthankstothemigrationtohigh-speedmodules,theopticaltransceivermarketisexperiencingrapidgrowth.LightCountingestimatesthesalesofopticaltransceiversandrelatedproductsexceeded$23Bnin2025,up50%from2024.Currently,thescale-outnetworkmarketisprimarilydominatedbytwocompetingtechnologies:InfiniBand(knownforsuperiorperformanceandledbyNVIDIA’sMellanox)andEthernet(offeringanopenecosystemandsignificantcostadvantages,ledbyBroadcom).LightCountingestimatedEthernetopticaltransceiversmadeup~74%ofthetotalin2025,reaching$17Bnandup60%YoY.Additionally,LightCountingforecaststhattheEthernetopticaltransceivermarketwillgrowata59%CAGRin2024-26,thendecelerateto15%in2026-30(Exhibit2).

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EXHIBIT1:Opticalinterconnectsproductmixwilllikelyshifttowardhigherrates

DatacenteropticalinterconnectsSAM

bydatarate

US$B

46%

12%

2028E

<=100G200G400G800G1.6T3.2T

35%

42%

2024

20

15

10

5

0

30

25

Note:ForecastfromCoherentandLightCounting;SAMreferstoCoherent'sServiceAddressableMarket.

Source:Coherent,LightCounting,Bernsteinanalysis

EXHIBIT2:Ethernetopticaltransceivermarketis

projectedtogrowata59%CAGRover2024-26,thendeceleratetoa15%CAGRover2026-30

US$B

GlobalEthernetOpticalTransceiverMarketSize

15%

CAGR

59%

CAGR

20242026E2028E2030E

NonAIAIscaleoutAIscaleup

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Source:LightCountingdataandestimates,Bernsteinanalysis

WHYDOWENEEDCPO?Forpluggableopticaltransceivers,thetransceivercagemountedonthefrontpanelofaswitch

orcomputetrayistypicallypositioned15-30cmawayfromXPUsorswitchchips.Therefore,adigitalsignalprocessor(DSP)isneededtorecoverandconditionthesignal.However,thisperformancecomesatthecostofhigherpowerusage.NVIDIAestimatesthata1.6Tbpsmodulemayconsume~30watts,withtheDSPaccountingformorethanhalfofthat.

1

Traditionalpluggablesolutionsrelyonlabor-intensiveassemblyandexpensivecomponentssuchasDSPs,retimers,andelectro-absorptionmodulatedlaser(EML)devices,whichdriveupbillofmaterials(BOM)costsandconstrainscalability.

Additionally,opticalmodulestypicallyhaveahardfailurerateof~100FIT(failureintime),whichequatestoaboutninefailuresayearper10,000opticalmodules.Softfailurescausedbydustcontaminationorconnectorandinterfacesensitivitywilllikelycreatefurtheruptimeandreliabilityissuesthatrequiremanualintervention.Theselimitationsintraditionalpluggableopticsarepushingtheindustry’sshifttowardnext-generationconnectivitysolutionsforAIdatacenters.

Toboostpowerandthermalefficiency,theindustryismovingtowardCPOsolutions.

Underthisnewpackagingtechnique,opticalenginesareintegratedalongsidechipsonthesamesubstrate,whichenhancessignalintegrityandtherebyeliminatesDSPs,enablingdatatransmissionvialower-powerSerDesinstead.NVIDIAclaimsthatitsCPO-basedswitchesdeliver

3.5xmorepowerefficiency,63xgreatersignalintegrity,10xbetternetworkresiliencyatscale,and1.3xfasterdeployment,comparedtotraditionalopticaltransceivers(

Link

2

).Broadcom

1ANewErainDataCenterNetworkingwithNVIDIASiliconPhotonics-basedNetworkSwitching|NVIDIATechnicalBlog.

2

/news/nvidia-spectrum-x-co-packaged-optics-networking-switches-ai-factories

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reportsthatitsCPOswitchdelivers40%loweropticscostperbit(

Link

3),likelyhelpedbyreducedcomponentcountandthereplacementofcostlyEMLlaserswithcontinuous-wave(CW)lasers,andamorestreamlinedsemiconductor-baseddesignandmanufacturingprocess.Meta’stestingresults4ofBroadcom’sBaillyCPOswitchsuggests500W+powersavingina51.2Tswitchsystem(

Exhibit3

and

Exhibit4

).

EXHIBIT3:Traditionalswitchwithpluggableopticaltransceivers

EXHIBIT4:CPOswitch

Source:Broadcom

Source:Broadcom

CPOINSCALE-OUTANDSCALE-UP

Basedontheindustryroadmap(Exhibit5),CPOadoptionwillstartinscale-out(switch),andmovetoscale-upconnectivity(XPU)overthelongterm.

CPOadoptioninscale-outnetworkwillstartlate2026,butlong-termTAMwilllikelyhingeonitsenergyandcostadvantages,systemreliability,andhowquicklypluggableopticscontinuetoimprove.AccordingtotheIEA,scale-outnetworkingaccountsforonlyabout5%oftotalclusterpower,whileserversconsumeroughly75%.Thismeansthatevenlargepower-efficiencygainsfromCPOswitcheswouldtranslateintoonlymodestreductionsintotaldatacenterpoweruse(Exhibit6).

OperationalreliabilityisanotherconcernforCSPs.Today,datacenteroperatorscanhot-swapfailedpluggabletransceiverswithoutaffectingotherports.Incontrast,ahighlyintegratedCPOpackage—wheresiliconchipsandopticalenginesarepackagedtogether—cannotbeeasilyseparatedforservicing,raisingmaintenanceanddowntimerisks.

Oncost,whileCPO-basedswitchesmayofferlowerBOMthroughsimplifieddesignandcheapercomponents,theyalsoshiftmorevalueupstreamtosemiconductorsuppliers,creatingamoreconsolidatedsupplychain.Theprofitabilityrequirementsofsemiconductorsuppliersandtransceivercompaniesarealsoverydifferent.Asaresult,early-stageCPOASPsarelikelytoexceedthoseofconventionalpluggablesolutions.Meanwhile,pluggableopticscontinuetoadvance,with3.2T-classmodulesexpectedtoarriveinthenearfuture.

Forscale-up,copperinterconnectsareexpectedtoreachperformancelimitsearlierthanpluggableopticaltransceivers,renderingscale-upamoreaddressablemarketforCPO.Limitedtransmitrangeandbandwidth-upgradeimpedimentsofcopperlinkshinderthefurtherexpansionofAIclusters,whichweelaborateoninthefollowingsection.Incontrast,CPOcouldmitigatethesebottlenecksbyextendingconnectivityrangesandofferingmorebandwidth,therebyenablingtherealizationofsuper-large-scaleclusterscomprisingover1,000XPUs.

3

/info/optics/cpo

4

EvaluationofCPOPerformanceandPluggableOpticsHealthforReliableAIInfrastructure.

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EXHIBIT5:Broadcom’sroadmapindicatesthatcopperstillconsumeslesspowerversustraditionalCPO,whileCPOmayexhibitbetterpowerefficiencyversuscopperandopticalsolutionsin2028-29

Source:Broadcom

EXHIBIT6:Networkonlymakesupasmallportionoftotalpowerconsumptionofhyperscaledatacenters

2024:Shareofelectricityconsumption

byequipmenttypeforhyperscaledata

center

ServerStorageNetworkCoolingOtherinfrastructure

Source:IEA,Bernsteinanalysis

INSIDENVIDIAAND

BROADCOM’SRACEFORTHECPOERA

NVIDIAandBroadcomaretheforerunnersintheCPOindustry.AttheGPUTechnologyConference(GTC)2025,NVIDIAexhibitedthreedistinctCPO-basedswitches,includingQuantumX800-Q3450(Exhibit7andExhibit8),Spectrum6810,andSpectrum6800.Inaddition,Broadcom,asoneofthefirstcompaniestoofferaCPO-enabledsystem,unveileditsfirst-generationCPOswitchHumboldtin2022,second-generationproductBaileyin2024,andexpectsitsnext-generationofferingDavissontoreachcommercialreadinessin2027.BroadcomshippeditsearlyCPOsystemstoTencentinsmallvolumes,whileitslatestproductshaveundergonetestingatMeta.

WesummarizethekeymetricsofNVIDIA’sandBroadcom’sCPO-basedswitchesinExhibit9.

(1)NVIDIA’sCPOswitchfeaturesadetachableopticalengine,sotechnicallyit’sclosertoaNPOthantoatrueCPO.Thisapproachimprovesserviceabilitybyallowingeasierrepairsin

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thecaseofmalfunction.Incontrast,Broadcom’sBaileyintegratesitsopticalenginedirectly

ontothesubstrate,makingitnon-detachable.(2)It’salsonoteworthythatBroadcom’sHumbolt

andBailey(launchedin2022-24)arebasedonfan-outwafer-levelpackaging(FOWLP)from

SiliconwarePrecisionIndustriesCo.,Ltd.(SPIL)(notcovered),whilethecompanywilllikely

migratetoTSMC’sCPOplatformforfuturegenerations.

EXHIBIT7:NVIDIAQuantum-X800InfiniBandCPOswitch

Source:NVIDIA

EXHIBIT8:TheNVIDIAQuantum-X800InfiniBandCPOswitchcomprisessixopticalsubassemblies,witheachsubassemblyhousingthreeopticalengines

Source:NVIDIA

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EXHIBIT9:NVIDIAversusBroadcom:CPOswitchkeymetricscomparison

Nvidia

Broadcom

QuantumX800-

Q3450

Spectrum6810

Spectrum6800

TH4-HumboldtDR

TH5-BaillyFR4

TH6Davisson

PilotProductiondate

2H2025

2H2026

2H2026

2022

2024

2026

Networkingstandard

InfiniBand

Ethernet

Ethernet

Ethernet

Ethernet

Ethernet

SwitchASIC

Quantum-3

Spectrum-6

Spectrum-6

Tomahawk4

Tomahawk5

Tomahawk6

Throughputperpackage

28.8Tps

102.4Tps

102.4Tps

25.6Tbps

51.2Tbps

102.4Tbps

Numberofswitchpackage

4

1

4

1

1

1

SwitchAggregateBandwidth

115.2Tbps

102.4Tpbs

409.6Tbps

25.6Tbps

51.2Tbps

102.4Tbps

SerDesspeed(Gb/sunidi)

200G

200G

200G

100G

100G

200G

Opticalconnectivity

DRoptics

DRoptics

DRoptics

DRoptics

FRoptics

DR4optics

Source:NVIDIA,Broadcom,Bernsteinanalysis

MANUFACTURINGSTEPSOFTSMC’sCPOtechnologyasanexampleCPO

TherearemanyapproachestomanufactureCPO,andwesummarizeTSMC’sapproachinthissectionaswiththeadoptionbyNVIDIA,Broadcom,etc.,itislikelytobethemainstreamapproachformanyyearstocome.

Exhibit10showstheoveralladvancedpackagingplatformthatTSMCofferstoAIandhigh-performancecompute(HPC)applications,andTSMC’sCPOtechnologyispartofit.AttheheartofTSMC’sCPOtechnology,COUPEiswhatTSMCusestomanufactureanopticalengine(OE).AnOEiswhereopticalandelectricalsignalsconvertintoeachother.TSMCfirstproducesanEIC(electronicIC)onawafer(6nmprocessnow)andaPIC(photonicIC)onanother(65nmsilicon-on-insulator(SOI)processnow).TheEICwaferisthencutintodiesandtested.Thenaknowngooddie(KGD)ofEICwillbeflipped,andthenface-to-facebondedtothePICwaferusingbumplesshybridbonding(marketedasSoIC-XbyTSMC).ThePICwaferisthencutintodiestoo,sothateachPICdiewillhaveconnectionswithanEICdieonthetop(Exhibit11).Theconnectionsbetweenthemallowelectricalandopticalsignalstocoupleandconvertintoeachother,andtheuseofhybridbondingshortenstheconnectiondistance.Additionally,TSMCputssilicon-basedmicrolensesonthetopoftheOEandametalreflectoratthebottom(Exhibit12).These,togetherwiththeshortdistanceenabledbyhybridbonding,helpincreasetheconversionefficiencyoftheOE.

AftertheOEisready,aFiberArrayUnit(FAU)(Exhibit17)holdingmanyopticalfiberstogether,willbeattachedtothetopoftheOE,sothatthelightbeamsfromthefibersafterfallingonamirrorwillbereflectedandshedontothemicrolensesprecisely(Exhibit13).

ThoughtheoutputoftheCOUPEprocessdescribed,intheory,canbealsoadoptedinDSPpluggableandotherconfigurations(Exhibit14),CPO,enabledbyTSMC’schip-on-wafer-on-substrate(CoWoS)technology,isclearlytheprimarytarget,sothattheOEandswitchchipsorXPUsareco-packagedtobecomeCPO.TSMCfurtherbreaksdowntheintegrationofCOUPEwithCoWoSintotwophases.ThefirstistopackagetheOEonthesubstrateoftheCoWoSstructure.ThismostlylikelywillbeoutsourcedtoASE(3711TT,notcovered)asTSMChasbeenoutsourcingmostofthe“oS”partoftheCoWoSproductiontoASE,andweexpectthepracticetocontinue.Inthesecondphase,theOEwillbeattachedonaninterposer.Forthisphase,TSMCwillmostlikelybehandlingtheattachmentasthecurrentpracticeisofTSMChandlingallofthe“CoW”partofCoWoSinternally.

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Alsonote,COUPEcanbeemployedregardlessoftheuseofCPO.Forexample,beforethe

integrationofCOUPEandCoWoSisproduction-ready,OEsmadeofCOUPEcanalsobe

packagedinapluggableformatandthenplacedonaPCB.ThisiscalledNPOoron-boardoptics

(OBO),andisanintermediatestepbeforeCPOisready.COUPE’stransitiontotheCPOformatcan

befurtherdividedintoputtingOEonsubstratefirst,likelyin2026,andthenoninterposerlater

asTSMCgraduallyovercomesthetechnologycomplexityandbringsOEsclosertoprocessor.

Intermsofcouplingtechnology,COUPEsupportsbothgratingcoupling(GC)andedgecoupling

(EC),butTSMCandNVIDIAcurrentlyfocusongratingcoupling.

Theroadmaps(Exhibit15andExhibit16)presentedbyTSMCinAugust2025showedthatits

CPOwillbefirstadoptedbyswitchchipswithOEonsubstrate,andthenbyXPUwithOEon

interposer.Anotherroadmap(Exhibit14)presentedinSeptember2025revealedthepossibility

ofhavingCPCbeforeCPOisadoptedbyswitchchips.

Competitively,IntelalsohassiliconphotonicandCPOtechnologies(

webpage

5).GlobalFoundries

offeredCPOservicestoAyarLabsearlier,butlostouttoTSMCinthethird-generationofAyar

Labs’products.ASEalsopackagedBroadcom’searlierCPOproducts.However,considering

theneedtointegratewithotheradvancedpackagingtechnologies(e.g.,CoWoS)andadvanced

front-endnode(e.g.,6nmforEICandabove),andthescaleandeconomyjointlyestablishedby

TSMCandNVIDIA,webelieveTSMC’sCPOofferingismorecompetitiveandwillsolidifyTSMC’s

positionasthedefaultmanufacturerofAIprocessorsandnetworkingchips.

EXHIBIT10:TSMC’sadvancedpackagingtechnologiesofferedforHPC/AIapplications,withCOUPEbeingpartofitandshownontheright

Source:TSMC

5

/content/www/us/en/products/details/network-io/silicon-photonics.html

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