摩根大通-中国贸易：韧性尚存静待特朗普-习近平峰会-China：Trade resilience awaits Trump-Xi summit-20280510

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China:TraderesilienceawaitsTrump-Xisummit

•Exportsreboundedmorethanexpectedby6.7%m/msainApril,thereboundwasbroad-based,withstrongexportrecoverytomajortradingpartners.

•Exportstructurecontinuestoimprove,withmechanical/electricalandhigh-techproductsreboundingwhilelow-endconsumergoodsrecovered.

•Importsslowedto2.7%m/msa,maintainingahealthypace,onlowerenergyandcommodityimports(e.g.,coal,crude/oilproducts,steel/ironore).

•ExportsremainamaingrowthdriverevenastheStraitofHormuzcontinuestobeclosed.AlleyesareontheTrump-Xisummit,withexpectationsthatitwillbringmoreclaritytobilateraltradeandaresolutionoftheMiddleEastconflict.

Aprilexportsrecordedastronger-than-expectedrebound,reversingasizeablepullbackinthepreviousmonth.Thereboundwasbroad-basedacrossmajordestinations,withexportsofmechanical/electricalandhigh-techproductsgrowingapace,followedbyasizeablerecoveryinlow-endconsumergoodsexports.Importscontinuedtogrowatahealthypace,albeitslowingpartlyonlowerenergyandcommodityimports.ADPandelectronicintegratedcircuit(IC)exportsremainedstrong,consistentwithstatesupportforpriorityindustriesandreflectingtheregionalAItechcycleupswing.Goingforward,tradeuncertaintiesremainheightened,butthe

mid-MayTrump-Xisummit

couldbringsomeclarity.

Headlineexportsrose6.7%m/msainApril,reversingthesizeableMarchpullback(-19.5%m/m).Annualgrowthrecoveredto14.1%oya(vs.JPM:9.2%,marketconsensus:8.4%),thoughthetrendpaceslowedto57.2%3m/3msaar.Importsslowedto2.7%m/msabutstillgrewatahealthypace,rising25.3%oya(vs.JPM:22.0%,marketconsensus:20.0%oya).Bydestination,exportsreboundedacrossallmajormarketsexceptJapan,ledbyLatinAmerica(12.8%m/msa,apaceofabouthalfofFebruary’ssurge),theUS(9.2%),Africa(5.4),EU(4.5%),EmergingAsia(4.6%,ledbyASEAN5.6%andHongKongSAR+1.3%,butnotTaiwan-2.1%)andRussia(1.1%).Product-wise,low-endconsumergoods(textiles,garments,toys,etc.)recovered15.7%m/msa(thoughcontracting1.8%oya),whilemechanicalandelectricalproductsandandhigh-techexportsrose5.4%and4.2%,respectively.TheupgradingofChina’sexportstructurecontinued,ledbythecontinuedexpansionofautomaticdataprocessingmachines(ADP4.4%m/msa)andelectronicICs(10.5%).

Importscontinuedtoexpandbutgrewat2.7%m/m(25.3%oya),theslowestmonthlypacethisyear,withtrendgrowthedgingupto69.2%3m/3msaar.Byorigin,theUnitedStates(12.8%),Brazil(11.5%)andEmergingAsia(5.9%,drivenbyKorea9.3%andASEAN5.9%)ledtheexpansion;importsfromJapan(1.3%)andtheEU(0.9%)grewmoderately,butfell8.7%fromAustralia,likelyreflectingweakironore/coal/basemetalsimports.Byproduct,soybeans(25.5%m/msa)andcopper(11.5%)postedsolidgains,high-tech(7.8%)andmechanicalandelectrical(6.4%)importscontinuedtorise,whilecrudeandoilproducts,coalandsteelproductsfellsharply.

Seepage7foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

EmergingMarketsAsia,EconomicandPolicyResearch

FengZhu

(852)28001745

feng.zhu@

TingtingGe

(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiayiLi

(852)2800-5229

jiayi.c.li@

TongfangYuan

(852)2800-0085

tongfang.yuan@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch

2

FengZhu

(852)28001745

feng.zhu@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

10May2026

Resiliencetoenergyshocks,alleyesonTrump-Xisummit

TheStraitofHormuzhasbeenclosedforovertwomonths,globalenergypriceshavestayedatelevatedlevelsandbothoilsupplyanddemandhavedeclinedsignificantly,yettheChineseeconomy,especiallytheexternalsector,hasshownremarkableresilience,withtheindustryandtradestructureimproving,consistentwiththebroadpictureofChinesemanufacturingupgradingtowardsthehigh-techsector.Chinahasapparentlybecomemorerelaxedaboutenergyexports.Chinaexported3.119milliontonsofrefinedoilproductsinApril(vs.4.601milliontonsinMarch),andlargestate-ownedrefinersarereportedlyapplyingforgovernmentpermitsandplantoresumefuelexportsassoonasMay.Inthelast10daysofApril,pricesofgasoline(-9.1%),diesel(-7.3%)andLPG(-2.8%)continuedtofall,comparedwiththeprevious10days.

YetaswiftandlastingresolutionoftheMiddleEastconflictandthereopeningoftheStraitofHormuzareimportanttosupportChina’stradegrowth.FollowingIranianForeignMinisterAbbasAraghchi’svisittoBeijingonMay6,nowalleyesareontheplannedvisitbyPresidentTrumponMay14-15.Thisfollowsthe2-1decisionbytheU.S.CourtofInternationalTradeonMay7thatthe10%globaltariffsimposedbytheTrumpadministrationunderSection122oftheTradeActof1974wereunlawful.Asuccessfulsummitthatproducesacceptablecompromisesontrade,onrestrictionsontechnologyandcriticalminerals,andonIranandTaiwanwouldsignificantlyreducetradeandgeopoliticaluncertainties,pavingthewayforfurthertradeexpansion.

Merchandisetrade

US$billionandpercentchange

2025

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

Exports

$billion

3770.6

356.7

299.8

321.0

359.4

%oya

5.4

10.0

39.6

2.5

14.1

%m/m,saImports

4.2

21.3

-18.9

6.7

$billion

2585.5

234.2

209.0

269.9

274.6

%oya

0.0

25.7

13.9

27.8

25.3

%m/m,sa

Tradebalance

5.9

3.3

5.3

2.7

$billion

1185.1

122.4

90.8

51.1

84.8

Source:CustomsStatistics,J.P.Morgan

Exportsvolumevs.price(US$)

%oya,3mma

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

Volume

Price

17181920212223242526

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

Automaticdataprocessingmachines&unit

%3m/3msaar

500

400Imports

300

Exports

200

100

0

-100

201620182020202220242026

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

10May2026

FengZhu

(852)28001745

feng.zhu@

3

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Source:CEIC,J.P.Morgan.*EstimatesatHS4-digitlevel

%3m/3msaar

200

150

100

50

0

-50

ChinabatteryandsolarPVexports

SolarPV*

Batteries

ChinaexportstoUSandRoW

$bnsa,chgfromJan2024level

ChinaexportstoRoW

ChinaexportstoUS

Jan24Jul24Jan25Jul25Jan26

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

Chinaexports-all

Exportsbydestination

Index,Dec2023=100

ASEANexportstoUS

CNexportstoASEAN

CNexportstoUS

Jan24Jul24Jan25Jul25Jan26

Source:NationalSources,J.P.Morgan

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

China'shigh-techexports

USDbn,sa

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

ICTproductsElectronicICsOthers

-30

151617181920212223242526

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

%oya

60

45

30

15

0

-15

Chinamerchandisetradegrowth

ExportsImports

China'stradewithGCC-shareoftotal

%oftotalChinaex/imports,12mma

9

8ExportstoGCC

7ImportsfromGCC

6

5

4

3

2

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

4

2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan

China'stradewithGCC-growthrate

%oya,12mma

ExportstoGCC

ImportsfromGCC

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

China'sexportsbydestination

Russia,AfricaandLatinAmerica

G3

2020202120222023202420252026

300

250

200

150

100

50

Index,sa,2019=100

ASEAN

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan.Note:In2019,China'sexportstoG3accountedfor39.6%ofitstotalexports,ASEAN14.4%,andRussia+Africa+LatinAmerica12.6%.

0

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Source:ChinaCustoms,CensusBureau,J.P.Morgan

ChinareportedexportstoUS

USreportedimportsfromChina

US$bn

60

50

40

30

20

10

ChinaexportstoUSvs.USimportsfromChina

China:Majorexportcategories

%3m/3msaar

125

100

75

50

25

0

-25

-50

-75

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Source:ChinaCustoms;J.P.Morgan

Lowendproducts

Hitechproducts

Merchandiseexportsbreakdown

Percentchange

2025Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26

EU%oya8.5

10.8

54.9

8.6

13.4

%m/m,sa

3.7

17.2

-14.3

4.5

US%oya-19.8

-23.0

9.7

-26.5

11.3

%m/m,sa

8.2

27.2

-24.9

9.2

Japan%oya3.6

-0.3

22.5

3.3

4.0

%m/m,sa

2.0

7.1

-2.3

-0.6

EMAsia%oya10.5

22.2

37.5

11.4

17.7

%m/m,sa

6.4

11.7

-9.8

4.6

Russia%oya-10.5

-0.9

59.0

20.6

25.7

%m/m,sa

-4.4

25.3

-8.4

1.1

Africa%oya25.7

23.4

97.5

3.1

17.3

%m/m,sa

-2.7

53.5

-33.8

5.4

LatAm%oya7.4

-0.6

44.1

-3.7

13.7

%m/m,sa

-1.9

25.2

-18.9

12.8

Mainexportproductcategories

Low-endconsumergoods

%oya-3.8

-7.1

69.0

-30.4

-1.8

%m/m,sa

2.8

35.9

-37.3

15.7

Mechanicalandelectricalproducts

%oya8.2

15.5

43.7

11.2

20.3

%m/m,sa

4.0

13.4

-10.8

5.4

Hi-techproducts

%oya7.3

24.0

30.2

31.4

39.2

%m/m,sa

6.9

6.4

3.4

4.2

Source:ChinaCustoms;J.P.Morgan

5

Merchandiseimportsbycountry

Percentchange

2025

Jan26

Feb26

Mar26

Apr26

EU

%oya

-0.4

27.5

-3.0

8.5

14.5

%m/m,sa

-1.0

-7.0

0.9

0.9

US

%oya

-14.9

-27.3

-26.3

1.0

9.0

%m/m,sa

-1.7

11.9

9.2

12.8

Japan

%oya

5.5

44.3

8.6

35.2

21.0

%m/m,sa

5.3

1.1

5.2

1.3

EMAsia

%oya

1.4

23.0

16.4

25.2

34.6

%m/m,sa

10.1

4.1

7.3

5.9

Brazil

%oya

4.5

51.5

20.9

39.0

38.1

%m/m,sa

-1.3

-4.1

-12.4

11.5

Australia

%oya

-1.7

28.9

41.6

87.6

31.5

%m/m,sa

9.4

2.2

20.1

-8.7

Source:ChinaCustoms;J.P.Morgan

Chinacommodityimportvolume

lndex,2010=100,sa,3mma

260

Ironore

210

160

110

1011121314151617181920212223242526

Source:GeneralAdministrationofCustoms,J.P.Morgan

Crudeandrefinedoil

Copper

60

Chinaimports

US$billion,sa,3mma

270

250

230

210

190

170

150

130

110

11121314151617181920212223242526

Source:ChinaCustoms,IMF,J.P.Morgan

Index,sa

250

200

150

100

50

CommodityPriceImports

Chinaautomobiletrade

Imports

1920212223242526

Exports

15161718

150

120

90

60

30

0

-30

-60

Source:ChinaCustoms,J.P.Morgan.

US$,%oya,3mma

China'sshareinglobalexports

%,sa

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

05060708091011121314151617181920212223242526

Source:WTO,J.P.Morgan

6

Majorcommodityimports(volume)

percentchange

2025Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26

CrudePetroleumOil

%oya4.6

18.8

12.6

-2.8

-20.0

%m/m,sa

-5.3

-0.5

0.2

-9.4

%m/m,nsa

-12.6

-1.7

4.0

-23.0

RefinedPetroleumProducts

%oya-12.9

35.2

49.8

19.3

-49.3

%m/m,sa

8.6

11.2

-25.3

-49.1

%m/m,nsa

6.8

12.2

-23.8

-50.3

NaturalGas-3.0

%oya

6.7

-10.6

-10.7

-12.9

%m/m,sa

-8.5

-10.7

-0.8

-1.1

%m/m,nsa

-14.6

-25.6

-4.2

2.9

Soybean

%oya6.5

-15.6

2.6

14.9

39.4

%m/m,sa

-5.3

17.4

-14.1

25.4

%m/m,nsa

-18.3

-9.0

-32.8

110.9

IronOre

%oya1.8

15.7

3.6

11.5

0.7

%m/m,sa

-2.4

-4.2

1.8

-1.0

%m/m,nsa

-6.1

-13.1

7.3

-0.8

Copper

%oya-6.2

-9.5

-23.8

-10.6

2.8

%m/m,sa

-4.7

-3.0

10.2

11.5

%m/m,nsa

-13.6

-15.8

31.3

7.7

Aluminum

%oya4.8

6.9

-9.4

5.9

%m/m,sa

9.0

15.1

2.0

%m/m,nsa

-3.1

-6.5

24.1

Coal

%oya-9.6

10.8

-10.0

0.9

-12.5

%m/m,sa

-10.5

-16.5

4.4

-17.8

%m/m,nsa

-21.0

-33.1

26.2

-15.3

SteelProducts

%oya-11.4

-8.0

-32.7

2.0

-10.6

%m/m,sa

-1.1

-12.2

18.0

-5.7

%m/m,nsa

-11.5

-19.6

37.8

-8.8

Mechanical&electricalproducts(value)

%oya5.0

29.5

17.5

25.9

33.5

%m/m,sa

8.7

0.9

5.0

6.4

%m/m,nsa

-9.3

-14.0

37.0

4.9

Hi-techproducts(value)

%oya9.0

31.4

23.7

31.5

41.9

%m/m,sa

9.2

2.5

6.3

7.8

%m/m,nsa

-9.5

-13.1

41.3

4.5

Source:Customsstatistics,J.P.Morgan

7

FengZhu(852)28001745

feng.zhu@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchTingtingGe(852)2800-0143

tingting.ge@

JiayiLi(852)2800-5229

jiayi.c.li@

TongfangYuan(852)2800-0085

tongfang.yuan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

10May2026

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HongKong:J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited(CEnumberAAJ321)isregulatedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandthe

SecuritiesandFuturesCommissioninHongKong,andJ.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited(CEnumberAAB027)isregulatedbythe

SecuritiesandFuturesCommissioninHongKong.JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranch(CENumberAAL996)isregulatedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthorityandtheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission,isorganizedunderthelawsoftheUnitedStateswithlimited

liability.WherethedistributionofthismaterialisaregulatedactivityinHongKong,thematerialisdistributedinHongKongbyorthroughJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedand/orJ.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited.

India:J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimited(CorporateIdentityNumber-U67120MH1992FTC068724),havingitsregisteredofficeatJ.P.MorganTower,Off.C.S.T.Road,Kalina,Santacruz-East,Mumbai–400098,isregisteredwiththeSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(SEBI)asa‘ResearchAnalyst’havingregistrationnumberINH000001873.J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedisalsoregisteredwithSEBIasamemberoftheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimitedandtheBombayStockExchangeLimited(SEBIRegistrationNumber–INZ000239730)andasaMerchantBanker(SEBIRegistrationNumber-MB/INM000002970).Telephone:91-22-61573000,Facsimile:91-22-61573990andWebsite:

.

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.-MumbaiBranchislicensedbytheReserveBankofIndia(RBI)(LicenceNo.53/

LicenceNo.BY.4/94;SEBI-IN/CUS/014/CDSL:IN-DP-CDSL-444-2008/IN-DP-NSDL-285-2008/INBI00000984/INE231311239)asa

ScheduledCommercialBankinIndia,whichisitsprimarylicenseallowingittocarryonBankingbusinessinIndiaandotheractivities,whicha

BankbranchinIndiaarepermittedtoundertake.Fornon-localresearchmaterial,thismaterialisnotdistributedinIndiabyJ.P.MorganIndia

PrivateLimited.ComplianceOfficer:PrasannaBandal;

prasanna.bandal@;

+912261575159.GrievanceOfficer:RamprasadhK,

jpmipl.research.feedback@

;+912261573000.RegistrationgrantedbySEBIandcertificationfromNISMinnowayguarantee

performanceoftheintermediaryorprovideanyassuranceofreturnstoinvestors.Pleasevisit

TermsandConditionsandMostImportantTerms

andConditions(MITC).

TheannualComplianceauditreportisavailableat

/#research.

Indonesia:PTJ.P.MorganSekuritasIndonesiaisamemberoftheIndonesiaStockExchangeandisregisteredandsupervisedbytheOtoritasJasaKeuangan(OJK).

Korea:J.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranch,isamemberoftheKoreaExchange(KRX).JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,

SeoulBranch,islicensedasabranchofficeofforeignbank(JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.)inKorea.BothentitiesareregulatedbytheFinancialServicesCommission(FSC)andtheFinancialSupervisoryService(FSS).Fornon-macroresearchmaterial,thematerialisdistributedinKoreabyorthroughJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranch.

Japan:JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.andJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,TokyoBranchareregulatedbytheFinancialServicesAgencyinJapan.

Malaysia:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedinMalaysiabyJPMorganSecurities(Malaysia)SdnBhd(18146-X),whichisaParticipatingOrganizationofBursaMalaysiaBerhadandholdsaCapitalMarketsServicesLicenseissuedbytheSecuritiesCommissioninMalaysia.

Mexico:J.P.MorganCasadeBolsa,S.A.deC.V.andJ.P.MorganGrupoFinancieroaremembersoftheMexicanStockExchangeandareauthorizedtoactasabrokerdealerbytheNationalBankingandSecuritiesExchangeCommission.

NewZealand:ThismaterialisissuedanddistributedbyJPMSALinNewZealandonlyto"wholesaleclients"(asdefinedintheFinancialMarketsConductAct2013).JPMSALisregisteredasaFinancialServiceProviderundertheFinancialServiceproviders(RegistrationandDisputeResolution)Actof2008.

FengZhu(852)28001745

feng.zhu@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongBranchTingtingGe(852)2800-0143

JiayiLi(852)2800-5229

jiayi.c.li@

TongfangYuan(852)2800-0085

tongfang.yuan@

AsiaPacificEconomicResearch

10May2026