2026年全球人工智能扩散的现状 Global AI Difusion Q1 2026 Trends and Insights

GlobalAIDiffusion

Q12026TrendsandInsights

May,2026

⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

ExecutiveSummary

Theglobaladoptionofartificialintelligencecontinuedto

riseinthefirstquarterof2026.Duringthequarter,AIusageincreasedby1.5percentagepointsfrom16.3%to17.8%

oftheworld’sworkingagepopulation.Intensityofuse

amongeconomieswiththehighestratesofAIdiffusionalsoincreased,with26economiesnowexceeding30%ofthe

workingagepopulationusingAI.

AtthetopofMicrosoft’sNationalAILeaderboard,theUAEcontinuedtoleadglobalAIdiffusionat70.1%.TheUnited

Statesfinallystartedtomoveupthenationalrankings,albeitonlyfrom24thto21stbasedona31.3%usageratebytheworkingagepopulation.

Notabledevelopmentsinthequarterincludedaccelerating

AIadoptioninAsiadriveninpartbyimprovingAIcapabilitiesinAsianlanguages.SouthKorea,Thailand,andJapansaw

thegreatestmovement.Morebroadly,thequarterbroughtcontinuedwideningoftheAIgapbetweentheGlobalNorthandSouth,withusagenowat27.5%intheNorthand15.4%intheSouth.Thesetrendsarediscussedbelow,includingadeeperdiveonthepositiveimpactofenhancedmultilingualAIcapabilitiesinJapan.

AIdiffusionbyeconomy,March2026

AIusershare

10%20%30%Insufficientdata

Norway

48.6%

Ireland

48.4%

France

47.8%

UAE

70.1%

Singapore

63.4%

2

⃞MicrosoftlAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

3

Totrackallthesetrends,wecontinuetomeasureAIdiffusionastheshareofpeopleworldwidebetweenagesof15

and64whohaveusedagenerativeAIproductduringthereportedperiod.ThismeasureisderivedfromaggregatedandanonymizedMicrosofttelemetryandadjustedto

reflectdifferencesinOSanddevice-marketshare,internetpenetration,andcountrypopulation.AdditionaldetailsonthemethodologyareavailableinourAIDiffusiontechnicalpaper.[

1

]

Nosinglemetricisperfect,andthisoneisnoexception.ThroughtheMicrosoftAIEconomyInstitute,wecontinuetorefinehowwemeasureAIdiffusionglobally,includinghowadoptionvariesacrosscountriesinwaysthat

bestadvanceprioritiessuchasscientificdiscoveryand

productivitygains.Forthisreport,werelyonthestrongestcross-countrymeasureavailabletoday,andweexpecttocomplementitovertimewithadditionalindicatorsastheyemergeandmature.

Sectorally,thequartersawstrengthenedAIcoding

capabilitiesleadingtoadramaticincreaseinproduction

ofsoftwarecode.Thiswasreflectedinproductionby

Anthropic’sClaudeCode,theOpenAI’sCodex,and

Microsoft’sGitHubCopilot.Gitpushes–throughwhich

softwaredevelopersputcodingchangesonline–increased78%yearoveryearglobally.

Interestingly,thequarterbroughtaddedevidencethat,

atleastfornow,AIcodingcapabilitiesmaybeincreasing

demandfortheemploymentofsoftwaredevelopers.

Asdiscussedinmoredetailbelow,whendeveloper

productivityincreases,thecostofbuildingsoftware

declines.Ifdemandforsoftwareiselastic,organizations

canrespondbybuildingmoresoftwareacrossawider

rangeofusecases,includingacrossbroadereconomic

sectors.Itisstilltooearlytoknowthefulllabor-market

impactofAI-assistedcoding,andthismaychangeover

time.Buttheavailabledatashowsthatin2025,totalU.S.

softwaredeveloperemploymentreachedapproximately

2.2million,rising8.5%yearoveryearandmarkingarecordhighfortheprofession.Earlydataforthefirstquarterof

2026showsthatsoftwaredeveloperemploymentinMarch2026wasabout4%higherthaninMarch2025.

⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

4

Aldiffusionovertimebyeconomy

1UnitedArabEmirates

2Singapore

3Norway

4Ireland

5France

6Spain

7NewZealand

8UnitedKingdom

9Netherlands

10Qatar

11Australia

12Belgium

13Israel

14Switzerland

15Canada

16SouthKorea

17Sweden

18Austria

19Hungary

20Taiwan

21UnitedStates

22Denmark

23Germany

24Poland

25Italy

70.1%6.1%

63.4%2.5%

48.6%2.2%

48.4%3.8%

47.8%3.8%

44.2%2.4%

43.0%2.5%

42.2%3.3%

42.1%3.2%

41.8%3.5%

39.5%2.6%

39.0%3.0%

38.1%2.0%

37.8%3.0%

37.3%2.3%

37.1%6.4%

36.1%2.8%

34.1%2.7%

32.2%2.4%

31.8%3.4%

31.3%3.0%

31.2%2.5%

31.1%2.5%

31.0%2.5%

30.2%2.4%

H22025AIdiffusionQ12026AIdiffusion

1UnitedArabEmirates64.0%

2Singapore60.9%

3Norway46.4%

4Ireland44.6%

5France44.0%

6Spain41.8%

7NewZealand40.5%

8UnitedKingdom38.9%

9Netherlands38.9%

10Qatar38.3%

11Australia36.9%

12Israel36.1%

13Belgium36.0%

14Canada35.0%

15Switzerland34.8%

16Sweden33.3%

17Austria31.4%

18SouthKorea30.7%

19Hungary29.8%

20Denmark28.7%

21Germany28.6%

22Poland28.5%

23Taiwan28.4%

24UnitedStates28.3%

25Italy27.8%

⃞MicrosoftlAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

5

AIadoptionintheGlobalNorthoutpacestheGlobalSouth

Atthesametime,thegapbetweentheGlobalNorthand

GlobalSouthcontinuestowiden,withadoptionintheGlobalNorthgrowingmorethantwiceasfastasintheGlobalSouth.Inthefirstquarterof2026,27.5percentofthepopulationintheGlobalNorthusedgenerativeAI,upfrom24.7percentinthesecondhalfof2025,againof2.8percentagepoints.In

theGlobalSouth,usagereached15.4percent,upfrom14.1percent,againof1.3percentagepoints.

ThiswideningdividereflectsthesystemicchallengesfacingtheGlobalSouth,wherelimitedaccesstoreliableelectricity,internetconnectivity,anddigitalskillscontinuestoconstrainadoption.Untilthesefoundationalgapsareaddressed,thebenefitsofgenerativeAIwillremainunevenlydistributed,

riskingadeepeningofexistingglobalinequalities.

Region

H12025AIDiffusion

H22025AIDiffusion

Q12026AIDiffusion

Change

GlobalNorth

22.9%

24.7%

27.5%

+2.8

GlobalSouth

13.1%

14.1%

15.4%

+1.3

World

15.1%

16.3%

17.8%

+1.5

GapbetweenGlobalNorthandGlobalSouth

9.8%

10.6%

12.1%

GlobalNorthGlobalSouth

27.5%

AIUserShare15.4%

%DigitalSkills

70.1%

48.2%

%DigitalSkills

90.1%

65.7%

%InternetAccess%InternetAccess

98.1%

100.0%

88.9%

%ElectricityAccess%ElectricityAccess

100.0%

PopulationPopulation

Sources:WorldBankTotalPopulation2024[

4

];Shareofthepopulationwithaccesstoelectricity,OurWorldinData[

5

];IndividualsusingtheInternet2024,ITU[

6

];Internetuserswithbasicinformationanddataliteracyskills,ITU[

7

].

⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

ANewGrowthWaveinAsia

InadditiontorisingAIdiffusionamongtheworld’stopeconomies,Asiaisexperiencingabroadergrowthwave.Twelveofthefifteenfastest-growingeconomiessince

June2025areinAsia,andeachhasatleast25%moreAIusersthaninJune2025.GrowthhasbeenledbySouthKorea(+43%),Thailand(+36%),andJapan(+34%),with

similarlystronggainsinMongolia,Iran,Laos,andTurkey

(all30%+).Thepatternspansbothadvancedandemergingeconomies,includingKazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Uzbekistan,Vietnam,andCambodia.

6

FastestgrowingeconomiessinceJune2025

%increaseinAIusershare,Q12026vs.H12025

0%10%20%30%40%

SouthKorea

Thailand

Japan

Mongolia

Iran

Laos

Turkey

Belarus

ElSalvador

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

Cambodia

Russia

+43.2%

+36.4%

+34.1%

+32.3%

+31.4%

+31.2%

+30.3%

+27.6%

+25.7%

+25.6%

+25.5%

+25.5%

+24.9%

+24.8%

+24.6%

*ItalicizedeconomiesareoutsideAsia.

⃞MicrosoftlAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

7

LocalLanguageandMultimodalCapability

Oneofthekeydriversofthesurgeappearstobethe

strongersupportforlocallanguagesandmultimodal

interactionthathasexpandedtherelevanceofAIacrossdiverseusergroups.Improvementsinnon-English

languageperformance,asmeasuredbymultilingualbenchmarkssuchasMMMLU[

8

]whichassessthe

sameknowledgetasksacross14languages(Arabic,Bengali,German,Spanish,French,Hindi,Indonesian,

Italian,Japanese,Korean,Portuguese,Swahili,Yoruba,andChinese),havemadeAItoolsincreasinglycapableofhandlingmultilingualtasks,makingthemmore

accessibleforeverydayusecasessuchasmessaging,search,learning,andcontentcreation.Combinedwithwidespreadsmartphoneadoptionandhighlevelsofdigitalengagement,[

9

]thesefactorshaveenabled

fasterdiffusionacrossbothadvancedandemergingeconomiesintheregion.

HowLLMsperform:Englishcomparedto14languages

95%

90%

85%

80%

Aug’24Nov’24Feb’25May’25Aug’25Nov’25Feb’26May’26

English(MMLU)14languages(MMMLU)

Source:

MMMLULeaderboard

.

⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

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StrongDemandandRapidScaling

Highuserdemandandarapidshiftfromexperimentationtoreal-worldusagearereinforcingthisgrowth.ResearchfromMcKinsey[

10

]showsthatAIadoptioninSoutheastAsiais

growingfasterthantheglobalaverage,withasignificantshareoforganizationsmovingbeyondpilotusecasestoscaleddeployment.Atthesametime,theStanfordHAIAIIndex[

11

]reportsstrongpositivesentimenttowardAIinmarketssuchasThailandandTurkey,indicatingsustainedopennessanddemand.Thesefactorsenableadoptiontotranslatequicklyintowidespread,repeateduse.

JapanAccelerates

Japan’spositionintheglobalAIdiffusionrankingimprovedfrom56thinH12025to48thinQ12026.

Overthepastquarter,adoptioninJapanincreased3.4

percentagepoints,whichismorethanthreetimesfaster

thantheglobalaverage.Thisaccelerationindiffusionis

consistentwithimprovementsinmodelcapabilitiesandtheemergenceofamorediversifiedAIecosystem,alongside

theimplementationofnationalpoliciescomingintoeffect.

PerformanceonJapaneseprofessionalexamshasimprovedmarkedlyacrosssuccessivemodelgenerations,increasingfromapproximately50.8%accuracyinearliermodels

toover90%inrecentsystems.Thisrepresentsastep

changeintheabilityofAIsystemstohandlecomplex,

domain-specifictasksinJapanese.[

12

][

13

][

14

][

15

]TheseimprovementsarealsoreflectedinstandardizedJapaneselanguagebenchmarks.OntheMassiveMultitaskLanguageUnderstanding(MMLU)benchmark,Japaneseaccuracy

increasedfromapproximately50percentonGPT-3.5

Turbotoaround80percentonGPT-4o,reducingthegapwithEnglishperformancefrom20percentagepointsto9.OnthemorechallengingMMLU-Probenchmark,GPT-5

reached87percentinJapanese,exceedingits85percent

Alusershare(3-monthaverage,%)

WorldJapan

4oimagegenerationGPT-4.5release

25%

20%

15%

10%

Dec’24Mar’25Jun’25Sep’25Dec’25Mar’26

OpenAIo3releaseGPT-5releaseGPT-5.2release

Source:MicrosoftAIforGoodLab,OpenAI.

⃞MicrosoftlAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

9

Englishscore.[

16

][

17

][

18

][

19

]Ashighlightedinthe

2025AIDiffusionReport,[

20

]AIadoptioninSouthKoreaincreasedaboutfivepercentagepointsinthesecond

halfoftheyearafterChatGPTusagesurgedafterGPT-5,substantiallybetterinKorean,wasreleased.

TheimprovementsinJapanese-languageAImodels

arealsoshowingupinhowdeveloperswork.InJapan,

developersuploaded129%morecodechangestoGitHubthanayearearlier,comparedwith78%growthglobally.

BetterJapanesecapabilityishelpingdriveAIdiffusioninJapan

EnglishJapanese

MMLU

70%

50%

GPT-3.5TurboMar2023

MMLU-Pro

89%

75%

80%

69%

100%

75%

50%

25%

GPT-4o

Aug2024

GPT-4o

Aug2024

GPT-5

Aug2025

87%

85%

Source:Benchmarksresultscompiledfrom[

16

]-[

19

].

Year-over-yeargrowthinGitpushes

129%78%

0%50%100%150%

Japan

Global

Source:GitHub.

⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

10

NewAICodingmodelsaredrivingastep-changeinGitHubcodeproduction

In2025,AnthropicandOpenAIdeliveredsignificant

advancementsinAI-poweredcodingtools,withbothcompaniesreleasingmodelspurpose-builtfortacklingcomplexsoftwareprojectsfromstarttofinish.

AnthropiclaunchedClaudeOpus4.5onNovember

24,2025,describingitasstateoftheartonreal-world

softwareengineeringtasks.OpenAIlaunchedthree

successiveCodexreleasesinrapidsuccession:GPT-5.1-

Codex-Max(November19),GPT-5.2-Codex(December18),andGPT-5.3-Codex(February2026).

Thesetoolsaredesignedtosupportincreasinglycomplexsoftwareengineeringtasks,showingstrongperformanceonstandardizedbenchmarksandagrowingabilityto

handlereal-worlddevelopmentworkflows.[

2

][

21

]For

example,GPT-5.3-Codexachievedstate-of-the-artresultsonSWE-BenchProandperformedstronglyonagentic

evaluations,includingapproximately77%accuracyonTerminal-Benchandaround65%onOSWorld.[

22

]

Atthesametime,GitHubCopilotevolvedfromacode

suggestiontoolintoabroaderAIcodingplatform.It

introducedsupportformultiplemodels,enabledcoding

agentsthatcancompletetasksandgeneratepullrequests,expandedintothecommandline,andintegratedwith

collaborationandprojectmanagementtools.This

positionedCopilotasanactiveparticipantacrossthe

softwaredevelopmentlifecycleratherthanatoolusedonlywithintheeditor.

CountofGitpushesglobally

Q12025

213MGitpushes

Agentic

workflow

adoptionaccelerates

0

2020202120222023202420252026

300M

200M

100M

Q12026

380MGitpushes

+78%YoY

Source:GitHub.

⃞MicrosoftlAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

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Beyondbenchmarks,thesetoolsarechanginghow

softwaregetsbuiltandwhocanbuildit.Theycantake

onmultistepdevelopmenttaskswithlittlehumaninput,handlingeverythingfromwritinganddebuggingcode

totestingandrefininguserinterfaces.Theyarealso

increasinglyabletocoordinateotheragentstomanage

complexdevelopmentworkflows,makingitpossiblefor

individualsandteamstoaccomplishfarmorethanbefore.

Asaresult,therehasbeenanexpected,butdramatic,increaseincodeuploads(“Gitpushes”)inGitHub.Gitpushesincreased78%yearoveryearglobally.

Inthesametimeperiod,thenumberofnewGit

repositoriesincreased45%comparedwithQ12025.

ThistrendalignswiththeemergenceofAI-assisted

developmentpracticesinwhichcodecontributionscanscalewithoutaproportionalincreaseinhumaneffort.

Developersandnon-developersare“vibecoding,”

expressingtheirideasinnaturallanguageandthen

refiningtheresultthroughrepeatedreviews,edits,andcodeuploads.[

23

]

ThisshiftisalreadyshowingupclearlyinAI-assisted

workflows:mergedGitHubpullrequests,whichmeasurehowoftencodeorupdatesaredownloadedfroma

sharedrepository,havegrownmorethan28xsince

June2025forinteractionsassociatedwithAIcodingagents.WhilethiscapturesonlyafractionoftotalAI-augmentedactivity,itprovidesausefulproxyfortherapidexpansionofAI-drivencodingworkflows.

Newrepositoriescreated

Q12026

21.3Mnewrepositories

+45%YoY

Q12025

14.7Mnewrepositories

202320242025

20M

15M

10M

5M

2021

Agentic

workflow

adoptionaccelerates

2026

2022

Source:GitHub.

⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

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Thistrendwillcontinuetomakesoftwaredevelopment

moredynamic.Itisreducingthetimetomarketfornew

applicationsandnewfeatures,andmakingiteasierto

iteratebasedonperformanceanduserfeedback.Therateatwhichnewideascanbetranslatedintoshippablecodehasneverbeenfaster.

Thatimprovementinproductivitycould,ofcourse,haveeffectsonthelabormarket.

Whendeveloperproductivityincreases,thecostofbuildingsoftwaredeclines.Ifdemandforsoftwareiselastic,

organizationscanrespondbybuildingmoresoftware

acrossawiderrangeofusecases.Economistsdescribethisdynamicthroughproductivityandreinstatementeffects:

technologycanincreaselabordemandwhenitexpands

outputandcreatesnewtasks.Insoftware,thismechanismisespeciallyplausiblebecauseAIcodingtoolsarealreadyincreasingdeveloperoutput,whileofficiallaborprojectionscontinuetoshowstronggrowthinsoftware-relatedroles.

Itisstilltooearlytoknowthefulllabor-marketimpact

ofAI-assistedcoding,buttheavailabledataisconsistentwiththistheory.In2025,totalsoftwaredeveloper

employmentreachedapproximately2.2million,rising8.5%yearoveryearandmarkingarecordhighfortheprofession.EarlyBLSdataalsoshowsthatsoftware

developeremploymentinMarch2026wasabout4%higherthaninMarch2025.[

24

]

CountofGitHubpullrequestsassociatedwithAlagents

0

May'25Aug'25Nov'25Feb'26

Mar2026

2.3Magenticpullrequests

28×in10months

2M

1.5M

1M

0.5M

May2025

83Kagenticpullrequests

Agenticworkflow

adoptionaccelerates

Source:GitHub.

⃞MicrosoftlAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

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Conclusion

AIadoptioncontinuedtoaccelerateinQ12026,butthebenefitsarespreadingunevenly.TheGlobalNorthis

pullingfurtheraheadoftheGlobalSouth,underscoringtheneedtoaddressfoundationalgapsinelectricity,

connectivity,digitalskills,andlocal-languageaccess.

Atthesametime,Asiaisemergingasamajorgrowth

engine,withJapan,SouthKorea,andseveralemergingeconomiesshowingrapidgainsasAItoolsbecome

moreusefulinlocallanguagesanddailyworkflows.TheclearestsignofAI’snear-termeconomicimpactisin

softwaredevelopment,wherenewcodingmodelsand

agentictoolsaredramaticallyincreasingcodeproduction,repositorycreation,andAI-assisteddevelopmentactivity.Together,thesetrendssuggestthatAIdiffusionisenteringanewphase:broader,faster,andmorepractical,butalsoonethatrequiresdeliberateactiontoensureitsbenefits

aresharedglobally.

⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

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Citationanddataavailability

Thisreportisbasedonthefollowingtechnicalpaper:

Misra,A.,Wang,J.,McCullers,S.,White,K.,&LavistaFerres,J.(2025).MeasuringAIDiffusion:APopulation-NormalizedMetricforTrackingGlobalAIUsage.

arXiv.

/10.48550/arXiv.2511.02781

Alsoavailableat:

https://aka.ms/AI_Diffusion_Technical_Report

Theunderlyingdatausedinthisreportispubliclyavailable:

AIDiffusiondataset(Q12026update):

/microsoft/ai-diffusion-

report/main/data/AI_Diffusion_Q12026_Update.csv

Whenusingthisdata,pleasecitethetechnicalpaperaboveandincludealinktothedatasettoensurereproducibility

andversiontransparency.

⃞MicrosoftlAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

15

Appendix

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/abs/2511.02781

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⃞MicrosoftIAIEconomyInstituteGlobalAIDiffusionQ12026TrendsandInsights

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[16]HuggingFace,“Llama-3.3-Swallow-70B-Instruct-v0.4.”

https://huggingface.co/tokyotech-llm/Llama-3.3-

Swallow-70B-Instruct-v0.4

[17]LLMStats,“MMLULeaderboard,”2026.

https://llm-

/benchmarks/mmlu

[18]OpenAI,“HelloGPT-4o,”2024.

/

index/hello-gpt-4o/

[19]SwallowProject,“SwallowLLMLeaderboard.”

https://

swallow-llm.github.io/leaderboard/about.en.html

[20]Microsoft.(2026).MicrosoftAIDiffusionReport2025H2.MicrosoftResearch.

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Microsoft-AI-Diffusion-Report-2025-H2.pdf

[21]OpenAI.(2025).Codexfor(almost)everything.

https://

/index/codex-for-almost-everything/

[22]OpenAI.“IntroducingGPT5.3Codex.”February5,

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/index/introducing-gpt-5-

3-codex/

[23]GitHubBlog.(2025).Octoverse:AnewdeveloperjoinsGitHubeverysecondasAIleadsTypeScriptto#1.

TheGitHubBlog.UpdatedFebruary28,2026.

https://

github.blog/news-insights/octoverse/octoverse-a-

new-developer-joins-github-every-second-as-ai-

leads-typescript-to-1/

[24]U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentPopulationSurvey(CPS).