﹑北京国际风能展全球风能报告

Beijing|Brussels|WashingtonWindPower–theNewWorldBeijing

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17October2018Beijing|Brussels|WashingtonBenBackwell,CEOofGWECandauthorofWindPower,theStruggleforControlofaNewGlobalIndustry(TaylorandFrancis,2017),formerenergyjournalistandanalyst,including10yearscoveringoilandgasBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonCOMembersC1,C2andC3MembersAssociationsGWEC–UnitingtheglobalwindindustryanditsrepresentativeassociationsBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonCumulativeMarkets2017growth:11%3.5%Offshore17yrg.growth:22.6%Beijing|Brussels|WashingtonAnnualMarkets2017growth:-3.8%8.2%Offshore(20%EU)17yrg.growth:19%Beijing|Brussels|WashingtonBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonWindisnowcheaperthanfossilfuelgenerationinmostmarketsaroundtheworldBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonEconomicsisdrivingthewindmarketforwardAndevenExxonisbuyingWindPowerBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonLCOEhasfallendramaticallyforonshoreandoffshorewindSource:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonWhatisdrivingcostreduction?Constanttechnologicalimprovement,inparticularbiggerblades,leadingtoimprovementsincapacityfactorsacrosstheworld.TurbinesarebingmoreefficientandabletoproducemoreMWhsperMWinstalled.Thisisduetotechnologicalprogressandsmarterturbinemanagement.Lowertechnologyriskwhichlowersthecostoffinanceovertime.Equityreturnratesareassumedtoconvergeto5%plusinflationanddebtratestoinflationplus2.75%by2030.Gearingratiosconvergeto70%thesameyear.Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonManufacturing–theexperiencecurveAlsomoreefficiencyinmanufacturingenabledbyexperienceanddrivenbyconsolidationandgreaterscaleOnshorewindturbinecostdecreasesby10.7%andcapexby7.1%foreverydoublingofcapacitybecauseofongoingdeclineinequipmentcostsduetomanufacturingexperience.Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonTurbinepricesfell52%since1H2009,from$1.83millionpermegawattto$0.88millionin1H2018.Turbineplatformsizecontinuestoincreaseasturbinemanufacturerslaunchthenextweofnewequipment.erageturbinecapacityfordeliveryin1H2018is3.5MW.Historically,pricinghasbeendrivenbyregionaldifferences,butnowpricesinLatinAmerica,NorthAmericaandWesternEuropeareconvergingastheindustrybesglobalandregionalturbinesuppliersgetpushedoutofthemarketthroughconsolidationandpricepetition.Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonAuctioningisthedriverforLCOEreductionsAndallthisbeingdrivenbypetitivepressure,mainlyduetothespreadofpetitiveauctioningacrosstheworld,whichhasreplacedpreviousfeedintariff(FiT)mechanisms.2018willbeanotherrecord-breakingyearforauctions:Thevolumeofcontractsauctionedhasgrownfasterthanrenewablesinstallations.Indeed,2018isalreadyontracktoexceedlastyear’stotalof58GW,providedalloftheannouncedauctionsgoaheadasplanned.China’sswitchtoauctionswillmake2019anotherrecordyear.Beijing|Brussels|Washington2014Walneyextension2015RaceBank2015EastAnglia2015BorkumRiffgrund2015HornsRevIII2016BorsseleI&II2016KrigersFlak2016BorsseleIII&IV2017Cluster12017TritonKnoll2017HornseaII2017MorayBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonAndCorporatePPAsalsodrivingpetitionpanieshepurchased8.3GWofcleanenergythroughPPAsyear-to-datein2018,beatingtherecord5.4GWsignedthroughallof2017.Facebookhassignedcontractsforjustunder2GWofrenewablessince2008,placingitsecondonlytoGoogle(3GW)forcumulativecorporatecleanenergypurchasesButwhatisinterestingisthattherangeofpaniesbybothsizeandtypeisincreasingallthetimeSource:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonNonEuropeanOffshoreMarketstodayUSAJAPANKOREBRAZILChina2,788INDIACHINAATAIWAVIETNAMNPHILIPPINESJapan65Korea38AUSTRALIAVietnam99USA30Taiwan8Total3,028(16%)Beijing|Brussels|WashingtonBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonSource:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceGlobalprojectionBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonGWStronggrowthinestablishedandnewoffshorewindpowermarketsAmericasAsiaEuropecontinuestogrow,inmorecountriesAsiaexpandsrapidly,especiallyChinaEuropeTotalinvestmentto2030of$500bnSource:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceBeijing|Brussels|WashingtonInvestmentfromIOCsstillsmallerthanutilitiesbuttickingupwardsShell’scapexplansarethemostambitious,buteven$1-2billionperyeartargetforNewEnergiesdivisionissignificantlylessthancapexplansofEnel,Iberdrola,EON–ormorerecentlyEDF–inrenewablesalone.Howeverwhileutilitieshebeenfirstmoversinmoveintorenewables,oilmajorscouldoutspendincumbentsifandwhentheymoveinfullforce.Oilmajorsarelargerthanutilities:cleanenergyinvestmentsstillaccountforlessthan6%ofIOCsannualcapex.Beijing|Brussels|WashingtonSodoesallthismeanthatrenewableshewon?Ultimatelyyes,renewablesisthebiggestsourceofnewgeneration,butwearestillaverysmallpartoftheglobalinstalledelectricitygenerationbaseandtheindustryfaceshugenewchallenges.Aswindgrowsandreacheshighlevelsofpenetration,howdowefitintothewholesystemandhelpcreatepowersystemsthatwork?HowdowegettherightkindofsystemdesignandhowdowerelatetosolarPVinparticular,butalsostorageanddemandresponse(DSR)?Ortoputitanotherway,howdowefitintothenewdigitalpowersystem,andhowdoweachievefullelectrificationandunlocknewdemandforwind?Howdowerelatetothenewworldofsubsidy-freepower?Beijing|Brussels|WashingtonTowardsanewtypeofwindbusinessBeingsuccessfulisgoingtorequireanewtypeofwindenergybusinessthatisagile,thatcanreachdowndirectlytothecustomer,andalsosidewaysintootheradjacentbusinessareas.Thiswillrequireaflexibleapproachtoprojectdevelopmentdependingontheparticularitiesofcountryregulationandmarketsandoftentheabilitiestobeablebineandstackrevenuesfromdifferentsales–Distributionpany,CorporatePPA,spotmarket,ancillaryservicesinsomemarkets.Needtobineandstackrevenuesfromdifferentt