2026年247可再生能源：可靠太阳能和风能的经济学报告（英文版）

24/7

RENEWABLES

THEECONOMICSOFFIRMSOLARANDWIND

©IRENA2026

Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.

ISBN:978-92-9260-736-4

Citation:IRENA(2026),24/7renewables:Theeconomicsoffirmsolarandwind,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

AboutIRENA

TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)isanintergovernmentalorganisationthatsupportscountriesintheirtransitiontoasustainableenergyfutureandservesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,andarepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledgeonrenewableenergy.IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwasauthoredbySaiedDardour,DeborahAyresandLourdesZamora,undertheguidanceofNorelaConstantinescu.

TheauthorsaregratefulforthevaluablecontributionsofIRENAcolleaguesFranciscoGafaro,AdrianGonzalez,BilalHussain,GayathriNair,DanialSaleem,HimalayaBirShrestha,BinuParthanandYasuhiroSakumainthepreparationofthisstudy.

Thereportbenefitedfrompeerreviewandcommentsby:A.Andrade(Directorate-GeneralforEnergyandGeology,Portugal);M.B.BenTichaandY.Li(InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency);R.Bhattacharyya(BARC);M.BianciottoandR.Ellis(InternationalHydropowerAssociation);T.Bjøndal(Ørsted);S.Cathalau(consultant);Y.Chen(consultant);K.Daly(EnergyTag);

A.Das(consultant);K.Das(TechnicalUniversityofDenmark);M.del’ÉpineandD.Mugnier(IEAPhotovoltaicPowerSystemsProgramme);P.González,F.LaverónSimavillaandI.NanclaresGutiérrez(Iberdrola);A.Jaeger-WaldauandC.Kirchsteiger(EuropeanCommissionJointResearchCentre);G.Kaur(InternationalSolarAlliance);M.D.KristiansenandC.Wolter(DanishEnergyAgency);J.Lee,T.SinghandF.Zhao(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil);G.Masson(BecquerelInstitute);S.PellandandY.Poissant(NaturalResourcesCanada);F.Perdu(FrenchAlternativeEnergiesandAtomicEnergyCommission);R.Perez(StateUniversityofNewYork);F.B.Quansah(consultant):M.Quero(Sunntics);K.Rangelova(Ember);J.Seel(LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory);J.Souder(LongDurationEnergyStorageCouncil);I.Suarez(TransitionZero);M.Taylor(consultant);H.Turton(KingAbdullahPetroleumStudiesandResearchCentre);S.Urquhart(AegirInsights);andY.XieandX.Zhou(ChinaRenewableEnergyEngineeringInstitute).TechnicalreviewwasprovidedbyPaulKomor(IRENA).

EditingandproductionweremanagedbyFrancisFieldwiththesupportofStephanieClarke.ThereportwaseditedbyJonathanGorvettandLisaMastny,withgraphicdesignbyNachoSanz.CommunicationsandadditionalsupportwereprovidedbyDariaGazzola,NicoleBockstallerandLingLingFederhen.

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3

CONTENTS

Figures,

tablesandboxes 4

Abbreviations 5

EXECUTIVESUMMARY 6

01

THERISEOFROUND-THE-CLOCKRENEWABLEPOWER 18

1.1BeyondLCOE:Whyasystemperspectivematters 20

1.2Fromsystemmodelstoproject-levelbenchmarks 23

02

THEECONOMICSOFFIRMRENEWABLEPOWER 24

2.1Measuringthecostoffirmrenewablepower:thefirmLCOE 24

2.2Howfirmrenewablecostscompareacrossmarkets 27

2.3Competitivenesswithfossil-fuelgeneration 33

2.4Whatdrivesthecostoffirmrenewableelectricity? 35

03

FROMCOSTCOMPETITIVENESSTODEPLOYMENTATSCALE 44

3.1Technologylearning:aself-reinforcingcostreductiondynamic 44

3.2Matchingtechnologytocontext 45

3.3Enablingdeployment:thedecisiveroleofpolicy 46

3.4Lookingahead 48

REFERENCES 49

ANNEXES 51

AMethodologicalframeworkforestimatingfirmLCOE 51

BCapitalexpenditureassumptions 55

COperatingexpenditureassumptions 58

DProjecttimelineandfinancingassumptions 59

4

FIGURES

Figure1ConceptualframeworkoffirmLCOE 8

Figure2FirmLCOEtrajectoryforsolarPV

andBESSat95%reliability,

2020-2035 10

Figure3ShareofsolarPVprojectsinChina

withfirmLCOEbelowUSD100/MWh

(modelled) 11

Figure4LCOEandfirmLCOEat95%reliability

forselectedsolarPVsites,

2025and2030 12

Figure5Impactofhybridisationstrategies

onthefirmLCOEofonshorewind

withBESS 13

Figure6Resource-relateddriversofthe

firmingpremiumforsolarPV 15

Figure7Impactofdecliningtechnologycosts

onthefirmLCOEofsolarPV

andBESS 16

Figure8LCOEcapturesplant-levelcosts–

butnotthefullsystempicture 21

Figure9FirmLCOEversusreliabilitytargetfor

asolarPVprojectwithBESS

(LasVegas,UnitedStates) 25

Figure10ProjecteddeclineinfirmLCOEfor

solarPVandBESS(LasVegas,

UnitedStates) 26

Figure11FirmLCOEtrajectoryforselected

solarPVsites,2020-2035 28

Figure12FirmLCOEtrajectoryforselected

onshorewindsites,2020-2035 29

Figure13ShareofsolarPVprojects

deliveringfirmelectricitybelow

USD100/MWh–China 30

Figure14Shareofonshorewindprojects

deliveringfirmelectricitybelow

USD100/MWh–China 31

Figure15LCOEandfirmLCOEforselected

solarPVsites,2025and2030 32

Figure16LCOEandfirmLCOEforselected

onshorewindsites,2025and2030 32

Figure17ImpactofdecliningCAPEXonthe

firmLCOEofonshorewind

andBESS 38

Figure18Resource-relateddriversofthe

firmingpremium–solarPV 40

Figure19Resource-relateddriversofthe

firmingpremium–onshorewind 41

Figure20Impactofhybridisationstrategies

onthefirmLCOEofonshorewind

withBESS 43

Figure21Buildingblocksanddataflows

oftheproject-levelfirming

optimisationmodel 51

Figure22Illustrativeexampleofhourly

dispatchcalculations 52

TABLES

Table1FirmLCOEbreakdownfora

solarPVprojectwithBESS

(LasVegas,UnitedStates) 26

Table2Technologytrends,costtrendsand

costdrivers–solarPV 35

Table3Technologytrends,costtrendsand

costdrivers–onshorewind 36

FIGURES,TABLES,BOXESANDABBREVIATIONS

Table4Technologytrends,costtrendsand

costdrivers–BESS 37

Table5Renewables.ninjaAPIinputs 54

Table6AssumedsolarPVtotalinstalled

costscurves 56

Table7Assumedonshorewindtotalinstalled

costscurves 56

Table8SystemboundariesforsolarPVand

onshorewind 56

Table9Keyassumptionsunderlyingcost

trajectoriesforvariablerenewable

technologies 57

Table10AssumedBESStotalinstalledcosts

curves 57

BOXES

Box1Project-levelfirmingisalreadytaking

shapeinpractice 19

Box2Thecapacityrace:speedandreliability

asthenewdifferentiators 19

Box3Accountingreformmeetsmarket

reality 20

ABBREVIATIONS

ACalternatingcurrent

AIartificialintelligence

BESSbatteryenergystoragesystem

BNEFBloombergNEF

BOSbalance-of-system

CAPEXcapitalexpenditure

DCdirectcurrent

ELCCeffectiveloadcarryingcapability

EMSenergymanagementsystem

EPCengineering,procurementandconstruction

EUEuropeanUnion

F-LCOEfirmlevelisedcostofelectricity

GHGgreenhousegas

GWgigawatt

GWhgigawatthour

HJTheterojunctiontechnology

IEAInternationalEnergyAgency

IRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency

kWkilowatt

kWhkilowatthour

LCOElevelisedcostofelectricity

LCOSlevelisedcostofstorage

LDESlong-durationenergystorage

LFPlithiumironphosphate

LNGliquefiednaturalgas

MWhmegawatthour

MWmegawatt

NCAnickelcobaltaluminiumoxideNetCONEnetcostofnewentry

NMCnickelmanganesecobaltoxide

OECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operation

andDevelopment

O&Moperationandmaintenance

PCSpowerconversionsystem

PVphotovoltaics

TOPContunneloxidepassivatedcontact

TWhterawatthour

USDUnitedStatesdollar

VPPvirtualpowerplant

VREvariablerenewableenergy

WACCweightedaveragecostofcapital

5

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Solarandwindhavebecomethecheapestsourcesofnewelectricitygenerationworldwide,reliablydeliveringlargevolumesofcleanenergyovertime.Asrenewablepenetrationrises,however,thecentralchallengeoftheenergytransitionisincreasinglyoneofadequacyandflexibility:ensuringthatcleanelectricityisavailablewheneverandwhereveritisneeded,notonlywhenconditionsarefavourable.Becausesolarandwindoutputvarieswithweatherandtimeofday,deliveringpoweraroundtheclockrequiresadditionalinvestmentsinstorage,generationoverbuildandsystemflexibility.Understandingthecostofthis“firming”–i.e.transformingvariablerenewableoutputintoacontinuous,dependablesupply1–isthereforecriticalforassessingthefulleconomicsofrenewablesincurrentandfutureelectricitysystems.

Thisreportapproachesthatquestionfromthe“bottomup”,assessingfirmingcostsattheassetlevelratherthanthroughsystem-widemodelsofflexibilityneedsandtheircostimplications.Itindicatesthatco-locatedsolarphotovoltaics(PV)andonshorewindsystemswithbatteryenergystoragesystems(BESS)canreliablyandcost-effectivelyprovideround-the-clockelectricityinfavourableresourceconditions.Inhigh-qualitysolarandwindzones,optimallyconfiguredsystemscanalreadydeliverround-the-clockelectricityatcostsbelowtypicalfossilfuelbenchmarks–andatpricesthat,oncetheplantisbuilt,arelargelyinsulatedfromthefuelcostvolatilityandsupplydisruptions,suchasthemostrecentshockstoglobalfossilfuelmarketscausedbydisruptionstoshippingintheStraitofHormuz.

Theinterpretationoftheseresultsissubjecttotwoimportantcaveats.First,thisreportdoesnotadvocatefirm,continuoussupplyasauniversalobjective.Reliabilityisachievedthroughdiverseresources–storage,dispatchablegeneration,transmissionanddemand-sideflexibility–andnopowersystemneedseverygeneratortobefirm.Second,theflatoutputprofileunderpinningthiscostmetricisamodellingassumptionchosenforcomparabilityandtransparency–notaprescriptionforhowrenewableprojectsshouldbedesignedorhowpowersystemsshouldbeoperated.

1Inthisreport,“firmrenewablepower”referstoelectricitydeliveredbyacombinationofrenewablegenerationandstoragethatmeetsaspecifiedshareofdemandonacontinuous,hourlybasis.

6

EXEcUTIVESUmmARy

HYBRIDSOLAR,WINDANDBESSASANEMERGINGASSETCLASS

SolarandwindareincreasinglypairedwithBESSinco-locatedhybridconfigurations.2Thesesystemsoptimisetheuseofconstrainedgridconnections,shiftelectricityproductiontohigher-valuehoursandreduceexposuretopricevolatility.Co-locatedsolarPV,windandBESSarealsowellpositionedtoservethemostdemandingelectricityusers–includingdatacentres,artificialintelligenceworkloadsandadvancedmanufacturing–thatrequireuninterrupted,high-qualitypowerandforwhichacontinuous,firmsupplyisoftentherelevantcommercialbenchmark.

Largeprojectsarealreadydemonstratingthetechnicalandcommercialfeasibilityofthisapproach.TheUnitedArabEmirates’AlDhafracomplex,forexample,willcombine5.2gigawatts(GW)ofsolarPVwith19gigawatthours(GWh)ofbatterystoragetodeliverafirm1GWofcleanelectricity–equivalenttoalargethermalpowerplant–atanestimatedfirmcostofUSD70/megawatthour(MWh).3AcrosstheUnitedStates,co-locatedsolar-plus-storagehasshiftedfromanexceptiontoanincreasinglystandardprojectconfiguration,withthepairedshareofnewutility-scalesolargrowingrapidlyandprojectedtorepresentthemajorityofadditionswithinthisdecade,accordingtoindustryanalysts.Projectsofthiskindillustratehowhybridrenewablesystemsarenowabletoprovideservicesonceassociatedexclusivelywithconventionalgeneration.

Thisdeploymentmomentumisbeingreinforcedbyaparalleltransformationinhowcleanelectricityismeasuredandvalued.Annualmatching–longthestandardforcorporatecleanenergyclaims–isincreasinglyrecognisedasinadequate,asitallowscompaniestoreportnear-zeroelectricityemissionsregardlessofwhenorwheregenerationoccurred.TheongoingrevisionoftheGHGProtocolScope2Guidanceproposeshourlyandlocation-matchedcertificatesasthebasisformarket-basedemissionsclaims,ashiftalreadyreflectedintheEuropeanUnion’srenewablehydrogencertificationrulesandCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism,aswellasGranularCertificateframeworksemergingacrossothermarkets.4Thesedevelopmentsarecreatingpricesignalsthatrewardreliabilityandflexibility,strengtheningtheinvestmentcaseforstorage,hybridportfoliosandround-the-clockcleanelectricitysupply.

2Throughoutthisreport,“solar”referstoutility-scalesolarPVtechnology.“Wind”referstoutility-scaleonshorewind.“Storage”

referstoutility-scalebatteryenergystoragesystems(BESS).Batterystorageismodelledasafour-hourlithium-ionsystemtoreflectprevailingutility-scaledeploymentandtoensurecomparabilityacrossprojectsandregions.“Hybridsystems”referstoco-located

combinationsofsolarPV,onshorewindandstorage.Theseconventionsapplythroughoutunlessexplicitlystatedotherwise.

3IRENAestimatebasedonkeyassumptions:USD5.94billioncapitalexpenditure(CAPEX),a5%discountrateanda20-yearlifetime.

4Thisconvergencetowardstemporalandlocationalmatchingextendsbeyondcorporateaccountingframeworks.UnderArticle6.4oftheParisAgreement,internationallytransferredmitigationoutcomesarealsosubjecttocorrespondingadjustmentrequirementsthatsimilarlyrewardtheverifiable,time-specificdeliveryofcleanenergy.

7

24/7RENEWABLES:THEECONOMICSOFFIRMSOLARANDWIND

APROJECT-LEVELMETRICFORFIRMRENEWABLEELECTRICITY:FIRMLCOE

Thisreportintroducesthefirmlevelisedcostofelectricity(F-LCOE)asaproject-levelbenchmarkforassessingtheeconomicsofflat,firmround-the-clockrenewablepower.UnliketheconventionalLCOE–whichcapturesonlyplant-levelgenerationcosts–thefirmLCOEaccountsfortheadditionalcapitalrequiredtoachieveaspecifiedreliabilitytarget(Figure1)viastorage,generationoverbuildandcomplementaryrenewables.

Figure1ConceptualframeworkoffirmLCOE

Complement

OverbuildBatteries

·>Flat,firm

·>

>

Variable

Firmingoption

Complement

OverbuildBatteries

>Variable

·>

Firmingoption·>Flat,firm

LCOEFirmingpremiumFirmLCOE

Note:VariablesolarPVandwindgeneration(left)istransformedintoaflat,firmoutput(right)throughacombinationofgenerationoverbuild,complementaryrenewablegenerationandBESS.Theflatoutputprofileiscalibratedtoconservethetotalannual

generationvolumeoftheoriginalvariableasset,ensuringthatthefirmLCOEreflectsonlytheadditionalcostofreshapingtheoutputprofile,notofincreasingtotalenergyproduction.ThefirmLCOEisthesumofthestandaloneLCOEandthefirming

premium,accountingfortheadditionalexpenditureassociatedwiththefirmingoptionrequiredtoachieveaspecifiedreliabilitytarget(setbydefaultto95%,unlessotherwisestated).

Inthisstudy,reliabilityisdefinedattheassetlevelinsimplified,energy-basedtermsastheshareofannualelectricitydemandthatcanbemetbyrenewablegenerationandstoragewithinthemodelledconfiguration.Thisdefinitiondiffersfromstandardconceptsofpowersystemreliability.Inpowersystemengineering,reliabilitytypicallycoversadequacy–theabilitytomeetpeakdemand–andsecurity,whichreferstoresilienceagainstsuddendisturbancessuchasgeneratoroutagesortransmissionfailures.

8

EXEcUTIVESUmmARy

Thereliabilitymetricusedherethereforedescribesthedeliverycertaintyofanindividualrenewableassetorhybridconfiguration,ratherthantheadequacyorsecurityofthepowersystem.Inthecontextofhourlycleanenergyaccounting,thismetriciscloselyrelatedto“cleanmatchingscore”or“hourlymatchingrate”

–theshareofdemandmetbycleansourcesineachhour–althoughappliedheretoprojecteconomicsratherthantoemissionsaccounting.

Themodellingframeworkassumesaflathourlyoutputprofileovertheyear.Thisassumptionshouldbeunderstoodasaproxyforround-the-clocksupplycommitments–suchasthoseusedbydatacentresorround-the-clockindustrialoff-takers–whereaconstantandcontinuoussupplyistherelevantcommercialbenchmark.Itdoesnotrepresentanoptimaldispatchpatternforreal-worldelectricitysystems,whichtypicallyrelyonacombinationofflexiblegeneration,transmission,storageanddemandresponsetobalancesupplyanddemand.FirmLCOEshouldthereforebeinterpretedasaconservative,project-levelbackstopcostfordeliveringreliablerenewableelectricityingrid-constrainedorislandedcontexts.

Becausesystem-levelintegration–throughaggregationacrossmultipleresources,transmissionnetworksandflexibilitymeasures–typicallyreducesthecostofachievingcomparablereliability,thefirmLCOEshouldbeviewedasanupperboundontheprofilecostsassociatedwithvariablerenewables.Usedinthisway,itcomplementssystem-widepowersectormodelsbyofferinginvestorsanddevelopersatransparent,replicablebenchmarkforassessingtheeconomicsofhybridrenewableassetsattheprojectlevel.

WhilethisanalysisfocusesonsolarPV,onshorewind,andlithium-ionbatterystorage,thefindingsdonotimplythatthesearetheonly–ornecessarilytheoptimal–pathwaystofirmrenewablepowerinallcontexts.Long-durationenergystorage,concentratedsolarpower,geothermalenergyandcross-borderinterconnectionareallviablecontributorstosystemreliability,althoughtheyfalloutsidethescopeofthecurrentmodellingframework.Furtherdeploymentoftheseoptionsisexpectedtoputadditionaldownwardpressureonthecostoffirmrenewableelectricitythroughlearningcurveeffectsandeconomiesofscale.

COSTCOMPETITIVENESSOFROUND-THE-CLOCKRENEWABLEELECTRICITY

IRENAmodellingshowsthatthecostofdeliveringfirmrenewableelectricityhasdeclinedrapidly,drivenbyfallingcostsforsolarPV,windpowerandBESS.5Between2010and2024,totalinstalledcostsdeclinedby87%forsolarPV–reachingUSD708/kilowatt(kW)6–andby55%foronshorewind,reachingUSD1066/kW.BESScostsfellevenmoresharply,decliningby93%fromUSD2634perkilowatthour(kWh)in2010toUSD197/kWhin2024.Recentindustrysurveysindicatethatthisdeclineacceleratedfurtherin2025,withturnkeysystempricesfallingbyaround30%inasingleyear,reachingtheirlowestrecordedlevel.Continuedtechnologylearning,manufacturingscaleandsupplychainmaturationareexpectedtodrivefurthercostreductionsacrossallthreetechnologiesoverthenextfivetotenyears.

5Allcosttrajectoriespresentedinthisreportshouldbeinterpretedasscenario-basedestimatesunderstatedtechnology,financing,anddeploymentassumptions,ratherthanasforecastsoffuturemarketoutcomes.

6Unlessotherwisestated,allcostfiguresinthisreportareexpressedinrealUnitedStatesdollarsat2025prices(USD2025).Whereapriceyearisshownexplicitly–forexample,USD2024–thefigureisexpressedinthepricesofthatreferenceyear,asreportedintheoriginalsource,andhasnotbeendeflatedoradjustedto2025prices.

9

24/7RENEWABLES:THEECONOMICSOFFIRMSOLARANDWIND

Theimpactonfirmingcostshasbeensubstantial.AnalysisbyIRENAofsolar-plus-batteryconfigurationsacrossmultiplecountriesshowsthatfirmLCOEshavefallenfromaboveUSD100/MWhin2020toaroundUSD54-82/MWhby2025inhigh-irradiancesolarregionsandstrongwindcorridors.7Furthercostreductionsofroughly30%by2030andaround40%by2035areprojectedundercurrenttechnologyandcostassumptions,bringingfirmLCOEsbelowUSD50/MWhatthebest-performingsitesby2035.Figure2illustratesthistrend.Thesimulationsassumedareliabilitytargetof95%.

Figure2FirmLCOEtrajectoryforsolarPVandBESSat95%reliability,2020-2035

160

140

120

FirmLCOE(USD/MWh)

100

80

60

40

0

-31%

(2020-2025)

163

133

-32%

(2025-2030)

139

-48%

(2025-2035)

116

113

109

59

50

47

41

33

2020202520302035

AustraliaBrazilChinaIndiaOmanUnitedStatesSouthAfrica

7Thesetrajectories,basedonalearningcurveapproachtotechnologycostprojections,shouldbeinterpretedasscenariosratherthandeterministicforecasts.Incontextswherecostshaveplateauedor,insomecases,risen–asintheUnitedStatesinrecentyears–

thesetrajectoriesreflecttechnicalpotentialratherthannear-termdeliveryexpectations.

10

EXEcUTIVESUmmARy

Chinacurrentlydefinestheglobalcostfloorforfirmsolar-plus-storage.Simulationsappliedto252utility-scalesolarPVprojectscommissionedin2024showthatasignificantmajoritycandeliverfirmelectricitybelowUSD100/MWh(Figure3).TheminimumfirmLCOEsobservedintheprojectsampleareaslowasUSD30/MWhata90%reliabilitylevel,risingonlymodestlytoaroundUSD46/MWhat99%reliability,withmorethanhalfofthesampleremainingbelowtheUSD100/MWhbenchmarkevenatthehighestreliabilitytierconsidered.

Figure3ShareofsolarPVprojectsinChinawithfirmLCOEbelowUSD100/MWh(modelled)

34

USD/MWh

37

USD/MWh

46

USD/MWh

MinimumfirmLCOEobserved

>30

USD/MWh

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

95%

97%

99%

Witha99%reliabilitytarget,

almosthalfofthesample

hasfirmLCOEsbelow

USD100/MWh,

withminimumvalues

atUSD46/MWh.

90%

Witha90%reliabilitytarget,

nearlytheentiresample

hasfirmLCOEsbelow

USD100/MWh,

withminimumvalues

atUSD30/MWh.

Globally,firmLCOEsforsolar-plus-storageremainhigherthaninChinabutaredecliningrapidly.Acrossarangeofhigh-qualitysites–fromBahiaStateinBrazilandtheTharDesertinIndiatoSouthernQueenslandinAustraliaandtheNorthwestProvinceinSouthAfrica–firmLCOEsin2025rangedfromaroundUSD65toUSD82/MWh,withunfirmedLCOEsaslowasUSD29toUSD39/MWh.By2030,firmcostsareprojectedtofalltobetweenUSD44andUSD58/MWhatmostofthesesites,reflectingcontinueddeclinesinbothsolarPVandBESStotalinstalledcosts(Figure4).TheUnitedStatesisanexception:higherfinancingcosts,interconnectionchargesandpermittingcomplexityhavekeptcostselevated,andfirmsolar-plus-storageLCOEsremainhigherthaninotherregions.Acrossalllocations,thefirmingpremiumisnarrowing,highlightingthegrowingcompetitivenessofround-the-clocksolarpowerinhigh-resourceregionsworldwide.Themajorityoftheworld’spopulationliveswithinthesehigh-irradianceandstrongwindzones,makingthedecliningcostoffirmrenewablepoweradevelopmentopportunityofglobalsignificance.

11

24/7RENEWABLES:THEECONOMICSOFFIRMSOLARANDWIND

Figure4LCOEandfirmLCOEat95%reliabilityforselectedsolarPVsites,2025and2030

91

69

61

113

47

77

54

37

79

20252030

Ad-DakhiliyahRegion

CentralOman

20252030

54

20252030

TabernasDesert

20252030

Spain

20252030

Rajasthan’sTharDesert

India

HebeiProvince

Nevada

NorthernChina

UnitedStates

65

44

80

82

44

58

20252030

20252030

20252030

SouthernQueensland

Australia

BahiaState

Brazil

Northwes