小米集团-W2026投资者日：加大AI投入穿越行业周期

图表1：大模型综合能力榜单：小米排名第六ArtificialAnalysis图表2：小米AI发展历程小米2026投资者日图表3：小米MiMo-V2.5系列适配多家主流推理芯片小米2026投资者日图表4：小米首代机器人VLA大模型2026投资者日图表5MiClaw界面2026投资者日图表6：围绕人车家全生态建设应用AI大模型与Agent技术小米2026投资者日图表7：小米汽车交付量上升小米2026投资者日SOTP432026PE。维持“买入”评级。17.72026基于除智能电动汽车投资以外的净利润，对应每股.8港币（我们目标估值的%，相比一致预期可（17.62026PE）AI时代价值。2.52026PS17.2港币（我们目标估值的%，估值倍数高出一致预期可比公司均值（7倍6年预测，主要2026SU7Ultra销售的成功体现出公司在豪华车水平的能力，我们认为公司“人-车-家”图表8：分部估值表人民币百万收入净利率净利润估值方法估值倍数估值手机&IoT&互联网（2026E）352,8549.6%33,722P/E17.7596,885汽车业务（2026E）156,599--P/S2.5398,388总计市值995,272发行股数26,025价格（人民币元）38.2价格（港币元）43.0注：汇率为HKD1=RMB0.89预测图表9：可比公司估值表收盘价 总市值（亿 EPS（元） PE(x) PS证券代码 可比公司 交易货币 （元） 元） 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E智能手机AAPLUS苹果(APPLE)USD271.0639794.709.279.2729.2429.24688036CH传音控股HKD57.8665.383.434.7516.8512.17603486CH67.80392.514.264.2615.0015.92688169CH石头科技CNY118.68307.5110.2910.2911.5411.54600690CH海尔智家CNY20.521924.292.272.499.028.250700HK腾讯控股HKD478.6043675.1127.2330.2318.6215.839988HK阿里巴巴-WHKD130.2024988.495.175.6723.0022.9517.6116.56智能汽车9868HK小鹏集团-WHKD64.201229.080.371.80171.8935.621.060.852015HK理想汽车-WHKD69.701507.981.032.6367.7026.520.990.839866HK蔚来-SWHKD50.151242.33-1.050.23-47.80221.410.860.700.970.79注：数据截至2026/4/27，预测数据来自 一致预期风险提示汽车进展不及预期。小米当前汽车进展顺利，市场预期较高，但竞争激烈。若汽车工厂产能落地或销售不及预期可能带来下行风险。智能手机进展不及预期。当前全球智能手机需求较弱，且竞争激烈，整体地缘政治对品牌展业也有影响，如市占率提升不及预期可能带来下行风险。宏观经济下行。若宏观经济波动影响公司终端硬件业务需求，或软件业务客户广告投放意愿，可能对公司盈利预测产生下行风险。图表10：小米集团-WPE-Bands 图表11：小米集团-WPB-Bands(港币)108

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4.4x0Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25

0Apr-23Oct-23Apr-24Oct-24Apr-25Oct-25S&P、华泰研究 S&P、华泰研究盈利预测利润表现金流量表会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E营业收入365,906457,287509,453620,621824,281EBITDA31,62356,35146,89660,03376,606销售成本(289,346)(355,481)(398,694)(480,499)(636,816)融资成本(3,624)(1,746)(710.00)(780.00)(858.00)毛利润76,560101,806110,759140,122187,465营运资本变动6,586(11,338)4,364(3,728)(6,236)销售及分销成本(25,390)(33,214)(35,152)(42,823)(56,875)税费(4,548)(8,080)(6,178)(8,073)(10,354)管理费用(5,601)(6,653)(6,623)(8,068)(10,716)其他9,259(1,045)(12,018)(14,954)(19,080)其他收入/支出(24,050)(33,132)(39,737)(48,408)(65,118)经营活动现金流39,29634,14232,35432,49840,078财务成本净额3,6241,746710.00780.00858.00CAPEX(7,297)(18,157)(11,000)(12,000)(13,000)应占联营公司利润及亏损(100.00)(112.00)1,0001,2001,500其他投资活动(28,089)(53,522)0.000.000.00税前利润28,12749,64737,95649,60363,614投资活动现金流(35,386)(71,679)(11,000)(12,000)(13,000)税费开支(4,548)(8,080)(6,178)(8,073)(10,354)债务增加量4,2560.000.000.000.00少数股东损益(1,706)(20,885)(6,868)(8,458)(13,020)权益增加量84.000.000.000.000.00归母净利润27,31439,24334,52245,37457,104派发股息0.000.000.000.000.00折旧和摊销(6,318)(8,757)(3,079)(4,524)(6,089)其他融资活动现金流(8,339)30,766709.00780.00858.00EBITDA31,62356,35146,89660,03376,606融资活动现金流(3,999)30,766709.00780.00858.00EPS(人民币，基本)1.051.511.331.742.19现金变动(90.00)(6,770)22,06321,27827,936年初现金33,63133,66126,91448,97770,255汇率波动影响120.0023.000.000.000.00资产负债表年末现金33,66126,91448,97770,25598,192会计年度(人民币百万)202420252026E2027E2028E存货62,51080,98980,47296,983128,534应收账款和票据14,58915,24016,61620,24126,884现金及现金等价物33,66126,91448,97770,25598,192其他流动资产34,57638,30539,57647,21261,203总流动资产225,709254,811279,002328,054408,174业绩指标固定资产18,08827,95045,53065,55588,144会计年度(倍)202420252026E2027E2028E无形资产21,5698,3194,8191,3182,183增长率(%)其他长期资产137,789217,016217,016217,015212,650营业收入35.0424.9711.4121.8232.82总长期资产177,446253,285267,365283,888302,977毛利润33.2032.988.7926.5133.79总资产403,155508,096546,367611,942711,151营业利润53.4433.871.5339.5834.13应付账款104,205117,348123,841147,887193,835净利润41.7143.67(12.03)31.4425.85短期借款13,32713,20213,20213,20213,202EPS41.7143.67(12.03)31.4425.85其他负债57,85361,85561,85561,85561,855盈利能力比率(%)总流动负债175,385192,405198,898222,944268,892毛利润率20.9222.2621.7422.5822.74长期债务17,27622,92122,92122,92122,921EBITDA8.6412.329.219.679.29其他长期债务21,28926,44626,44626,44626,446净利润率7.468.586.787.316.93总长期负债38,56549,36749,36749,36749,367ROE15.4917.2512.2414.2315.60股本0.000.000.000.000.00ROA7.518.616.557.838.63储备/其他项目188,738266,219297,997339,526392,787偿债能力(倍)股东权益188,738266,219297,997339,526392,787净负债比率(%)(1.62)3.46(4.31)(10.05)(15.80)少数股东权益467.00105.00105.00105.00105.00流动比率1.291.321.401.471.52总权益189,205266,324298,102339,631392,892速动比率0.930.901.001.041.04营运能力(天)总资产周转率(次)1.011.000.971.071.25估值指标应收账款周转天数13.1511.7411.2610.6910.29会计年度(倍)202420252026E2027E2028E应付账款周转天数105.63112.18108.89101.7996.59PE27.2618.0520.5215.6112.41存货周转天数66.5272.6672.9066.48