数据、模型与决策（第12版）课件 第1章管理科学

Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ManagementScienceChapter1Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ChapterTopicsTheManagementScienceApproachtoProblemSolvingManagementScienceandBusinessAnalyticsModelBuilding:Break-EvenAnalysisComputerSolutionManagementScienceModelingTechniquesBusinessUsageofManagementScienceTechniquesManagementScienceModelsinDecisionSupportSystemsCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.TheManagementScienceApproachManagementscienceisascientificapproachtosolvingmanagementproblems.Itisusedinavarietyoforganizationstosolvemanydifferenttypesofproblems.Itencompassesalogicalmathematicalapproachtoproblemsolving.Managementscience,alsoknownasoperationsresearch,quantitativemethods,businessanalytics,etc.,involvesaphilosophyofproblemsolvinginalogicalmanner.Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.TheManagementScienceProcessFigure1.1ThemanagementscienceprocessCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.StepsintheManagementScienceProcessObservation-Identificationofaproblemthatexists(ormayoccursoon)inasystemororganization.ProblemDefinition-Theproblemmustbeclearlyandconsistentlydefined,showingitsboundariesandinteractionswiththeobjectivesoftheorganization.ModelConstruction-Developmentofthefunctionalmathematicalrelationshipsthatdescribethedecisionvariables,objectivefunctionandconstraintsoftheproblem.ModelSolution-Modelssolvedusingmanagementsciencetechniques.ModelImplementation-Actualuseofthemodeloritssolution.Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.InformationandData:BusinessfirmmakesandsellsasteelproductProductcosts$5toproduceProductsellsfor$20Productrequires4poundsofsteeltomakeFirmhas100poundsofsteelBusinessProblem:Determinethenumberofunitstoproducetomakethemostprofit,giventhelimitedamountofsteelavailable.ExampleofModelConstruction(1of3)Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Variables: x=#unitstoproduce(decisionvariable) Z=totalprofit(in$)Model: Z=$20x-$5x(objectivefunction) 4x=100lbofsteel(resourceconstraint)Parameters: $20,$5,4lbs,100lbs(knownvalues)FormalSpecificationofModel:

maximizeZ=$20x-$5x subjectto4x=100ExampleofModelConstruction(2of3)Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ExampleofModelConstruction(3of3)Solvetheconstraintequation: 4x=100 (4x)/4=(100)/4

x=25unitsSubstitutethisvalueintotheprofitfunction: Z=$20x-$5x=(20)(25)–(5)(25) =$375(Produce25units,toyieldaprofitof$375)ModelSolution:ManagementScience

andBusinessAnalyticsBusinessanalyticsuseslargeamountsofdatawithmanagementsciencetechniquestohelpmanagersmakedecisionsBringstogetherinformationtechnology,statistics,managementscience,andmathematicalmodelingBigdataCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelBuilding:Break-EvenAnalysis(1of9)Usedtodeterminethenumberofunitsofaproducttosellorproducethatwillequatetotalrevenuewithtotalcost.Thevolumeatwhichtotalrevenueequalstotalcostiscalledthebreak-evenpoint.Profitatbreak-evenpointiszero.Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelComponentsFixedCost(cf)-coststhatremainconstantregardlessofnumberofunitsproduced.VariableCost(cv)-unitproductioncostofproduct.Volume(v)–thenumberofunitsproducedorsoldTotalvariablecost(vcv)-functionofvolume(v)andunitvariablecost.ModelBuilding:

Break-EvenAnalysis(2of9)Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelComponentsTotalCost(TC)-totalfixedcostplustotalvariablecost.Profit(Z)-differencebetweentotalrevenuevp(p=unitprice)andtotalcost,i.e.ModelBuilding:

Break-EvenAnalysis(3of9)Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelBuilding:

Break-EvenAnalysis(4of9)ComputingtheBreak-EvenPoint Thebreak-evenpointisthatvolumeatwhichtotalrevenueequalstotalcostandprofitiszero:

Thebreak-evenpointCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelBuilding:Break-EvenAnalysis(5of9)Example:

WesternClothingCompany

FixedCosts:cf=$10000 VariableCosts:cv=$8perpair Price:p=$23perpair

TheBreak-EvenPointis: v=(10,000)/(23-8) =666.7pairsofjeansCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelBuilding:Break-EvenAnalysis(6of9)Figure1.2Break-evenmodelCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelBuilding:Break-EvenAnalysis(7of9)Figure1.3Break-evenmodelwithanincreaseinpriceCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelBuilding:Break-EvenAnalysis(8of9)Figure1.4Break-evenmodelwithanincreaseinvariablecostCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.ModelBuilding:Break-EvenAnalysis(9of9)Figure1.5Break-evenmodelwithachangeinfixedcostCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Break-EvenAnalysis:ExcelSolution(1of4)Exhibit1.1Formulaforv,break-evenpoint,=D4/(D8-D6)Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Break-EvenAnalysis:ExcelQMSolution(2of4)

EntermodelparametersincellsB10:B13Clickon“ExcelQM,”thenonAlphabetical”listofmodelsandselect“BreakevenAnalysis”Exhibit1.2Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Exhibit1.3WesternClothingCompanyinQMBreak-EvenAnalysis:ExcelQMSolution(3of4)

Copyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Break-EvenAnalysis:QMSolution(4of4)Exhibit1.4QMbreak-evengraphforWesternClothingCompanyCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure1.6Classificationofmanagementsciencetechniques

ClassificationofManagementScienceTechniquesCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.LinearMathematicalProgramming-

clearobjective;restrictionsonresourcesandrequirements;parametersknownwithcertainty.(Chap2-6,9)ProbabilisticTechniques-

resultscontainuncertainty.(Chap11-13)NetworkTechniques-modeloftenformulatedasdiagram;deterministicorprobabilistic.(Chap7-8)OtherTechniques-varietyofdeterministicandprobabilisticmethodsforspecifictypesofproblemsincludingforecasting,inventory,simulation,multicriteria,AHP(analytichierarchyprocess),etc.(Chap9,14-16)CharacteristicsofModelingTechniquesCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc.Someapplicationareas: -ProjectPlanning -CapitalBudgeting -InventoryAnalysis -ProductionPlanning -SchedulingInterfaces-ApplicationsjournalpublishedbyInstituteforOperationsResearchandManagementSciences(INFORMS)BusinessUsageofManagementScienceCopyright©2016PearsonEducation,Inc. Adecisionsupportsystemisacomputer-basedsystemthathelpsdecisionmakersaddresscomplexproblemsthatcutacrossdifferentpartsofanorganiza