高盛-中国房地产：提前布局（之二）：股价反弹-当前已计入多少预期-CHINA PROPERTY Positioning ahead(No.2)：Share rally-whats priced in-20260529

htEtqpi:t/wse.arvauhelist

29May2026|3:36PMCST

CHINAPROPERTY

Positioningahead(No.2):Sharerally-what’spricedin

Inprevioushousingcycles,equitymarketshaveconsistentlyactedasleading

indicators:UShomebuilderstockstypicallybottomedout1-2quartersaheadofpropertypriceinfiections,whileJapanesedevelopersanticipatedrecoveriesbyseveralyears.Duringsuchrecoveryperiods,sharepricesralliedsignificantlyfromtroughtopeak,drivenbyrisingROEscoupledwithcompressingcostofequity.

Today,withpropertypricesshowingencouragingsignsofstabilizationinChina’s

top-tiercities,ourcoverageuniversehasgained6%onaveragefromtheirlastlowssinceendMar-26,withstrongerSOEdevelopersonaverageup17%andCOLIand

CRLand’ssharepricesupc.30%(asof5/27/2026).Suchrallysuggeststhatthe

marketmighthavestartedtopriceinabroaderrecoverythanourbaselineviewthat-ShanghaiandShenzhenwillleadthecurrentinfiection.Totestwhethercurrent

valuationsarejustifiableunderamoreoptimisticmarketview,wefirstlyapplyour“Four-PillarRecoveryFramework”—evaluatingdemographics,income,a仟ordability,andsupply—acrossallTier-1and2citiestoidentifythenextcohortthatislikelytofollowtheSH/SZrecoverytrajectory,thenweassesstheimpactondevelopers’

earnings/ROE/valuationifpropertypriceforthiscohortinfiectsin2027:

nWeselectanother15citiesontopofSZ/SH,formingthe‘leadingcities’camp

whichoverallaccountedfor1)40%+ofnationalpropertysalesvalueandFAI,

andnearly55%oftotalhometransactions;2)30%oftotalGDP/retailsales,

nearly20%ofpopulationandover90%oflistcomarketcap(basedon

headquarterlocations);and3)c.30%ofhouseholdincome/debt/savingandover55%ofurbanhousingasset.Meanwhile,weestimatethatourcoveredstrongerSOEsonaveragehavehalf/two-thirdsoftheirend-25landbank/saleable

resourceslocatedintheleadingcities.

nShouldpropertypriceinfiectinthese15cities,i.e.matchingthe15%upside

projectedforSHandSZbyyear-end2028(optimisticscenario),weselectCOLIandCRL(twobettershareperformersinthisrally)asexamples,toexaminewhathasbeenpricedinandwhatcouldbethepotentialupsidefromnowon.Our

analysissuggeststhat:1)COLI,whichisDP-focusedwithitssector-leading

saleableexposure(80%+)totheleadingcities,wouldbethekeybeneficiaryintermsofcontractsalesupside;2)CRLand,onthetopofleveragingDPrecoverytailwinds,mightalsobenefitfrommallperformanceandrentalincome

YiWang,CFA

+86(21)2401-8930|

yi.wang@

GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimited

ShiXu

+86(21)2401-8929|

shi.x.xu@

GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimited

KaiyanJing

+86(21)2411-8092|

kaiyan.jing@

GoldmanSachs(China)SecuritiesCompanyLimited

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconfiictofinterestthatcoulda仟ecttheobjectivityofthisreport.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/quali

fiedasresearch

analystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachs

http

h:/in/awoperty

TableofContents

Keythesisincharts4

Learnedfromoverseas:amoresustainedphysicalmarketrecoverykeytodriveextendedshareupside

6

Selectsecondbatchcities(15intotal);possibly4-5monthslagtoSH/SZ’srecovery(in2027）

10

What’spricedinforCOLI&CRL:PotentialROEexpansionunderoptimisticscenario,butnotmultiplenormalization

16

PriceTargetRisks&Methodology

23

DisclosureAppendix

24

29May20262

GoldmanSachs

http

h:/in/awoperty

29May20263

improvementonthebackofproperty-price-drivenwealthe仟ect.Ouroptimistic

scenarioanalysispointstoover30%/50%cashprofitexpansionby2028Evs.2026Eforthetwocompanies,respectively.

nAssuch,cashROEimpliedsharepriceupsidesunderouroptimisticscenariosuggestthatthesharerallyforCOLIandCRLandsinceendMarchcouldbelargelyjustified.Onthetopofthat,ourSOTPvaluation,whichfurthercapturespotentialgrowth

visibilityimprovementandthusmultipleexpansions(underouroptimisticscenario),implyover50%/70%upsidesforCOLIandCRLandagainstMay27thclosingprice.

Relatedresearch

ChinaProperty:PositioningaheadofTier-1citiesturnaround

ChinaProperty:2026Outlook:Newuncertaintiesfromcontinuedweakhousingmarket

ChinaProperty:Housingtrade-inprogramrefinedinShanghai,moree仟ectivelysupportingupgradedemand

ChinaProperty:Potentialhousingprovidentfund(HPF)reformmighthelptostabilizemarket

ChinaProperty:Potentialnewroundofpolicystimuluswouldbepositiveonbothhousingmarketandconsumption

ChinaProperty:Improvinglandinvestmentefficiencytoliftmargin/ROEandsupport-furthervaluationrecovery

29May20264

Keythesisincharts

Exhibit1:Leadingcitiesoverallaccountedfor1)40%+ofnationalpropertysalesvalueandFAI,andnearly55%oftotalhometransactionvalue;2)30%oftotalGDP/retailsales,nearly20%ofpopulationandover90%oflistcomarketcap(basedonheadquarterlocations);and3)c.30%ofhouseholdincome/debt/savingandover55%ofurbanhousingasset

Summaryoftheshareofleadingcitiesamongnationaltotal

Asof2024,exceptforGDPandretailsales(2025)andlistcomarketcap(Apr-26).Forlistcomarketcap,weuseaggregatemarketcapoflistedcompanieswhoseheadquartersarebasedinleadingcities/totalAsharemarketcap.

Source:CREIS,Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit2:Meanwhile,weestimatethat45%/55%ofend-25landbank/saleableresourcesofourcovereddevelopersaveragearelocatedintheleadingcities,andtheseratiosrisetooverhalf/two-thirdsforourcoveredstrongerSOEs.Correspondingly,leadingcitiespotentiallycontributedtoaverage35%/54%oftotalprofitforourcovered

average/strongerSOEsaveragein2028E

Breakdownofleadingcities’exposure/contributiontocovereddevelopers’landbank,saleableresourcesandgrossprofit

*Saleablelandbankunlessn.a.,underwhichweusetotallandbank;**ContributionofDPgrossprofitinleadingcitiesvs.totalgrossprofit

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May20265

Exhibit3:CashROEimpliedsharepriceupsidesunderouroptimisticscenariosuggestthatsharepricegainforCOLIandCRLandsinceend-Marlowcouldbelargelyjustified.Ontopofthat,ourSOTPvaluationsuggestsfurtherupsides

SummaryofderivationforpotentialsharepriceupsideforCOLIandCRLand

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May20266

Learnedfromoverseas:amoresustainedphysicalmarketrecoverykeytodriveextendedshareupside

OverseasexperiencessuggesttopositionaheadofconcretephysicalmarketinfiectionInprevioushousingcycles,equitymarketshaveconsistentlyactedasleadingindicators:UShomebuilderstockstypicallybottomedout1-2quartersaheadofpropertyprice

infiections,whileJapanesedevelopersanticipatedrecoveriesbyseveralyears.Duringsuchrecoveryperiods,sharepricesralliedsignificantlyfromtroughtopeak,drivenbyrisingROEscoupledwithcompressingcostofequity.

Exhibit4:InpriorpropertycyclesintheUS,weobservethat1)homebuilders’stockpricesbottomedoutbyaround1-2quartersaheadofpropertypriceinfiections,and2)substantialpricegainpotentialinpropertypriceupcycles

ComparisonofUShomebuilders’stockpriceperformanceagainsthousingprice

HomebuildernamesthatweusedincludeD.R.HortonInc.(DHI),PulteGroupInc.(PHM),LennarCorp.(LEN),TollBrothersInc.(TOLL),KBHome(KBH)andMeritageHomesCorp.(MTH).“Topperformance

Source:FRED,Datastream,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit5:WealsoseehugesharepriceexpansionsinJapanaheadofpropertypricestabilization

ComparisonofJapanhomebuilders’stockpriceperformanceagainsthousingprice

MitsubishiEstate(8802.T),MitsuiFudosan(8801.T),SumitomoCorporation(8053.T)andTokyoTatemonoCo.(8804.T)

Source:Wind,Datastream,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May20267

Exhibit6:PastexperiencessuggestedP/Bvaluationon

averagedoubledforUShomebuildersduringhousingpricerecoverycyclessince1993...

ComparisonofUShomebuilders’P/Bagainsthousingprice

UShomebuildershereincludeD.R.HortonInc.(DHI),PulteGroupInc.(PHM)andLennarCorp.(LEN);indexedtoJan-1993=100.

Source:FRED,Datastream,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit7:...andexpandednearly90%onaverageforJapanhomebuilderssince2000

ComparisonofJapanhomebuilders’P/Bagainsthousingprice

JapanhomebuildersincludeMitsubishiEstate(8802.T),MitsuiFudosan(8801.T)andSumitomoCorporation(8053.T);indexedto2015=100.

Source:Wind,Datastream,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:SampleUSandJapandeveloperssuggestP/BmovingintandemwithROEramp-upduringearlyrecoveryphases

Comparisonofsampleoverseasdevelopers’ROE,COEandP/Btrends

Source:Datastream,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Sincethisdownturn,ourcoverageuniversehadseveralrallies,withthemajoronesintherangeof11%-61%.Short-livedphysicalmarketrecoveryand/orpolicystimulusarethemajordriversfortheserallies,inourview.Whilethistime,therallyseemsdrivenmorebyfundamentalimprovementwithincreasingsignsofpropertypricestabilizationintop

cities,althoughsustainabilityremainstobeseen.

29May20268

Exhibit9:Amoresustainedpropertymarketrecovery(leadingtopropertypriceincrease)willlikelyextendthesharepricerally

SummaryofaveragesharepriceperformanceofourcoveredStrongerSOEdevelopers,vs.majorpro-propertypolicies,nationwidepropertysalesvolumeandTier-1citieshousingpriceindex

Sharepriceasof5/25/2026

Source:Governmentannouncement,NBS,Datastream,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May20269

Exhibit10:Thistimetherallyseemsdrivenmorebyfundamentalimprovementwithincreasingsignsofpropertypricestabilizationintopcities,althoughsustainabilityremainstobeseen.

70citiesprimaryandsecondaryASPindexperformancesince2023

Source:NBS,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May202610

Selectsecondbatchcities(15intotal);possibly4-5monthslagtoSH/SZ’srecovery(in2027）

SelectionofcitiesbasedonFour-PillarRecoveryFramework

AdoptingourFour-PillarRecoveryFramework(demographics,income,a仟ordability,andsupply),weassesswhichcitiescouldfollowSH/SZ’spropertyrecoveryearlierthanrestofChina.Ouranalysisplacesparticularemphasisonincomedynamics,specificallythestructuralcompositionoflocaleconomies,evaluatedthroughthreedimensions:

nNeweconomypresenceincludingtechnology,AI,advancedmanufacturing,and

greenenergythatprovidesustainablegrowthpotentialastraditionalproperty-andinfrastructure-leddriversmoderate;

nSalesandprofitgrowthoflocalenterprise,drivenbybothscalingupofneweconomyortailwindsfromtraditionalindustries;

nHiringandwagetrends,wherebyfirmswithstrongfinancialperformanceexpandheadcountandliftpercapitaincomes.

Forconsistencyinreporting,weproxythesetrendsusingdatafrompubliclylisted

companiesheadquarteredineachcityfortheperiods2010-2015and2020-2025:1)

Neweconomypresence:MeasuredbytheaggregatemarketcapitalizationandrevenueoflocallyheadquarteredfirmsdesignatedasHigh-TechEnterprises(“高新技术企业”),

SpecializedandInnovative(“专精特新企业”),orclassifiedunderStrategicEmerging

Industries(“战略新兴产业”),expressedasapercentageoflocalGDP;2)Salesandprofitgrowth:Assessedonacomparablebasisacrossalllocallyheadquarteredlistedfirms,

excludingthee仟ectsofnewlistingsordelistings;3)Hiringandwagetrendsalsoevaluatedsimilarlyonacomparablebasis.

29May202611

Exhibit11:Weidentifyacohortof“leadingcities”thatwebelievearebestpositionedtofollowShanghaiandShenzhen’seconomicrecoveryinthisroundbasedonourfour-pillarhousingrecoveryframework

Tier-1/2cities’fundamentalstrengthscorecardforthecurrentcycle

Source:NBS,Localgovernmentannouncments,CREIS,CRIC,Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit12:Weobservegreaterbifurcationacrossgroupsintermsofneweconomyexposure,contributingtowider

divergencesincorporateprofitability,hiringtrends,andwagedynamicsinthiscycleparticularlyastraditionalsectorsfaceheightenedpressures

Detailsoftheeconomicstructureandgrowthandhiring/wagetrendsbycitygroupsforthecurrentcycle

Tier-1citiesinclude2citiesinBatch1plusBeijingandGuangzhouinBatch2;leadingT-2citiesincluderestofcitiesinBatch2.

Source:Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

2014-2015cyclesuggested4-5monthslagbetweenbatch1andbatch2recovery

Withthesamefour-pillarhousingrecoveryframework,wealsoidentifiedacohortofTier-1and2citiesduringthe2014–15cycle(aggregatedinExhibit13andExhibit14).Webacktestedperformanceacrossthefullsetofcitiesduring2014-2015cycle.Citiesrankinghighestacrossthefourpillars(“leadingcities”)onaveragesawpositiveprice

infiectionsinbothprimaryandsecondarymarkets4monthsafterShenzhen/Shanghaipropertypricesbottomed.Incontrast,theremainderofthesamplerequiredan

29May202612

additional4-5months(primary)and1-2months(secondary)toexhibitrecovery.

Exhibit13:WealsoevaluatedandrankedthefundamentalstrengthofTier-1andTier-2citiesduringthe2014–15cycleusingthesamefour-pillarhousingrecoveryframeworktoarriveanothercohort...

Tier-1/2cities’fundamentalstrengthscorecardduringthe2014-2015downcycle

Source:NBS,Localgovernmentannouncments,CREIS,CRIC,Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit14:...focusingonthecontributionofnew-economysectorstoregionaleconomicstructureandgrowth,assessingwhetherthistranslatedintostrongersupportforlocalemploymentandincometrajectoriesthroughanexaminationoffinancialtrendsamonglocallylistedcompanies

Detailsoftheeconomicstructureandgrowthandhiring/wagetrendsbycitygroupsduringthe2014-2015downcycle

Source:Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May202613

Exhibit15:WefindthattheseleadingcitiesmuchmorecloselyfollowedSH/SZ’spropertypricerecovery

ASPmomtrendsbycitygroupsduring2014-2015downcycle

Source:NBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Housingsupplyratio,secondarylistingsupply,rentalyieldsanddevelopers’newinvestmentconcentration-additionaldriverstoconsiderinthiscycle

Onsupply-side:weexaminewhetherthereare1)easingtrendsofsecondarysupply

pressure,whichwebelieveareyettobeclearlyseeninsomeofourselectedcitiesasofApr-26(e.g.Nanjing,Jinan,ChengduandXiamen);2)stillinsufficientoverallhousing

supplyratiocomparedtothereasonablelevelof1.1XasobservedinDMs,whichisthecaseformostofselectedcities;and3)intensifieddevelopers’investmentssincethisdowncycle,whichshowcasedstrongerdevelopers’convictionsandenhancedland

supplyqualitiesinthesecities(intermsoflocation,plotratiorequirement,etc.),whichcorrespondinglyalsoresultedinnarrowerlocallandsalesdeclineandimprovedlandauctionsuccessrateslocally.

nWeestimatethatstrongerdevelopers’footprinthasbeenmuchmoreconcentratedintheseleadingcitiesvs.priorcyclesthatduring2024-2025,i)ourcoveredstrongerSOEdevelopersaccountedfornearly30%oflandsalesvalueinthesecities(Exhibit17),ii)leadingcitiesalsoaccountedfornearly90%and70%ofaggregateland

acquisitionvalue/volumemadebythesedevelopers(Exhibit18),andiii)average

overhalf/two-thirdsofend-25landbank/saleableresourcesofourcoveredstrongerSOEdevelopersarelocatedinleadingcities(Exhibit19).

Ondemand-side:wegaugewhetherimprovingresidentialrentalyieldsinrecentyearshadreapedpositivecostofcarryasHKcurrentlyexperience.Weoverallfoundthattobestillnegativeformostofselectedcities,underperformingrestofTier-2cities,whichcouldbepartiallyjustifiedbypopulationgrowth

inthesecitiesvs.rest

tier-2ones

(Exhibit11)

29May202614

Exhibit16:Moredriverstoconsiderinthiscycle

Additionalsupplyanddemandmetricsofselectedleadingcities

*WeuseourcoveragestrongerSOEdevelopersasrepresentativeofdevelopers’landinvestmentpreferences.Consideringsubstantiallyhigherinvestment

concentrationinT1cities,weexcludedT1citiesfromthedemoninatorwhencalculatingthechangeofinvestmentsharesforeachindividualT2citiestobetterrefiectdevelopers’preferences.

Source:CRIC,Anjuke,NBS,Census,Wind,CREIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit17:During2025,ourcoveredstrongerSOE

developersaccountedfornearly30%oflandsalesvalueintheleadingcities,doubleofthelevelpriorto2022

MarketshareofcoveredstrongerSOEdevelopers’aggregatelandsalesbyvolumeandvalueinleadingcities

Source:CREIS,Companydata,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit18:Meanwhile,leadingcitiesaccountedfornearly90%and70%ofaggregatelandacquisition

values/volumesmadebythesedevelopersduring2024-25

ShareoflandacquisitioninleadingcitiesamongtotalinvestmentsofcoveredstrongerSOEdevelopers

Source:CREIS,Companydata,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May202615

Exhibit19:Weestimatethatonaverage45%/55%ofend-25landbank/saleableresourcesofourcovereddevelopersarelocatedinleadingcities,andtheseratiosrisetooverhalf/two-thirdsforourcoveredstrongerSOEdevelopers.

Correspondingly,leadingcitiespotentiallycontributedtoaverage35%/54%oftotalprofitforourcovered

average/strongerSOEsaveragein2028E

Breakdownofleadingcities’exposure/contributiontocovereddevelopers’landbank,saleableresourcesand2028Egrossprofit

*Saleablelandbankunlessnotavailable;**ContributionofDPgrossprofitintopcitiesvs.totalgrossprofit

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

29May202616

What’spricedinforCOLI&CRL:PotentialROEexpansionunderoptimisticscenario,butnotmultiplenormalization

GaugingupsidepotentialforCOLIandCRL

WezoominCOLIandCRLandastheyrecordedthestrongestgains(+32%forCOLIand25%forCRL)sincetherecentrallyamongststrongerSOEs(average17%sinceend-Mar),asof5/27/2026,andweasktwoquestions:1.Aretherecentsharepricegainsjustified,and2.Arethereanyfurtherupsides?

WeviewCOLIasthefirst-derivativebeneficiaryofimprovingpropertypricetrends.

GivenitssignificantconcentrationintheDPsegment,COLIremainshighlysensitiveto

ASPrecoveriesastrendsbroadenfromTier-1toleadingTier-2citiesthusleadSOE

peersinrefiectingpositiveDPsentiments.WhileCRLsharestheDPrecoverytailwinds,itsextensivemallportfolio(contributing~45%ofits2026E-28Ecoreprofits),iswell

positionedtocaptureareboundifpropertyinfiectioninleadingcitiestriggersapositive“wealthe仟ect”impactonconsumption(historicalcorrelationinExhibit20),drivingretailsalesgrowthandrentalincomerecoveryacrossCRL’scommercialassets.OurcashROEimpliedsharepriceupsidesunderouroptimisticscenario(Exhibit3)suggestthatsharepriceforCOLIandCRLandcouldgain26%/35%fromend-Marlow,meaningsharepricegainsofarcouldbelargelyjustifiedinthisscenario.WhileourSOTPvaluation(Exhibit21andExhibit22),whichcapturespotentialmultipleexpansionsnotrefiectedina

standardP/B-ROEframework,implya76%potentialupsidetoCRL’slatestclosingprice,comparedtoapotential52%upsideforCOLI(underouroptimisticscenario).Bydetails:

nCOLI:WeseeDPsideasthemajorcashROEdriver,giventheleadingcitiesrepresentover70%ofCOLI’ssaleablelandbankGFA,andweexpectprojectsinthesecitiestocontributeover80%of2026E-2028Econtractsalesbasedontheirsaleable

resourcesstructure.Underouroptimisticscenario,a15%increaseofproperty

pricesinthesecitiesbeforeend-2028coulddrive10%upsidetoour2028Econtractsalesestimate,or5%for2026E-28Eaverage.ThismeansRmb14.7bnnetprofitfortheDPsegmentin2028E,vs.Rmb10.3bnin2025andourbase-caseofRmb14.1bnin2028E.Factoringinretailsalesimprovementsinitsmallportfolio,contributing

Rmb0.5bnincrementalIPNOI(or6%higherthanourBasescenario),impliesa1ppimprovementinCOLI’s28EcashROEagainst26EcashROE,translatingto0.1XP/Bimprovementfromend-Marlevelsandimplying26%sharepriceupside(vs.32%

realizedasof5/27).OurSOTPanalysis,whichincorporatesDPP/Eexpansionto

mid-cyclelevelsandIPcapratesathigher-endofitsselffairvalueappraisals,resultsinHK$23.1/shareimpliedvaluationforCOLI,or52%potentialupsidefrom5/27

closingprice;

nCRL:WeseelikewisesubstantialDPbusinessexposuretoleadingcities(60%of

saleablelandbankGFAand70%+of2026E-28EsalesforCRL),whichcoulddrive8%upsidetoour2028Econtractsalesestimates,or4%foraverage2026E-28Eunderouroptimisticscenario.ThismeansRmb13.5bnnetprofitfortheDPsegmentin

2028E(vs.Rmb10.9bnin2025andourbase-caseofRmb13bnin2028E).

Furthermore,wethinktheboostonIPbusiness(includingcommercialPMs)wouldbemoresubstantial,givenleadingcitiesaccountfor48%ofCRL’sopenedmallsasof

29May202617

end-2025and82%ofitsnewmallpipelinein2026E-28E,andwethinkCRLis

best-positionedtocapitalizeonpotentialconsumptiontailwindsgivenitsresilient

rental/retailsalesgrowthamidstadverseconsumptionbackdrop,favorable

exposuretoleadingcitiesandvisibleoccupancycostupsides(detailsinExhibit23).Underouroptimisticscenario,wecalculate45%higherretailsalesby2028Eversus2025,driving18%CAGRinrentalincomeover2025-28E,resultinginRmb18.5bn

NOIby2028E(vs.Rmb10.8bnin2025andourbase-caseofRmb14.7bnin2028E),whilecommercialPMrevenuecouldgrowat22%2025-28ECAGRandincreasenetprofittoRmb4.8bnby2028E(vs.Rmb2.7bnin2025andRmb4.0bninourbase

case).Overall,ouroptimisticscenarioimplies3ppimprovementinCRL’s28Ecash

ROEagainst26EcashROE,translatingto0.3XP/Bimprovementfromend-Marlevelsandimplying35%sharepriceupside(vs.25%realizedasof5/27).OurSOTP

analysis,whichpricesinadditionalgrowthpremiumforPMbusinessalongsideDP/IPmultipleexpansions,resultsinaHK$61.4/shareimpliedvaluationforCRL,or76%

upsidefrom5/27closingprice.

Exhibit20:ShouldresidentialASPsinleadingcitiesrecover,weseeadditionalupsidetomalloperatorsifretailsalesandrentsfollow,asevidentbytheirhistoricallystrongcorrelation.However,atimelagislikely,mirroringthe2014-2015propertydownturnwhenresidentialASPsbottomed5–6monthsbeforeretailrents,refiectingsubstantialnegativehousing

wealthimpactonconsumerspendingwhichto