德银 -中国公用事业行业-上调AI用电需求预测 Raising Al power demand forecasts(Monthly - May 2026)

DeutscheBank

Research

Asia

China

HongKong

Utilities

Utilities

Industry

ChinaUtilitiesSector

RaisingAlpowerdemandforecasts

(Monthly-May2026)

Alpowerdemandsustainshighgrowth

China'sAl-relatedpowerdemandsawstronggrowthinApril2026,drivenbycontinuedexpansionindatacentresanddigitalinfrastructure.Overallelectricityconsumptionrose6.0%YoY,butthetertiarysector-whereITservicessit-outpacedthisat+8.9%YoY.Withinthis,internetanddataservicesrecordedasharp42.8%YoYincreaseinpowerconsumption,extendinganaccelerationtrendfrom>30%in2025.Thissustainedstep-upcloselytracksasharpaccelerationindatacentredeployment.AccordingtoMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology,China'sdatacentrecapacityexpandedfrom9.00mnstandardracksin2024to12.50mnin2025andfurtherto14.45mnby1Q26,withgrowthacceleratingto39%YoYinboth2025and1Q26(vs.11%in2024).

Date

27May2026

IndustryUpdate

GaryZhou,CFA

ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5889

Figure2:Chinadatacentrecapacitybystandardracks

Figure1:Powerconsumptiongrowthfrominternetandrelatedservicesectors(YoY)

50%

45%

40%

35%

(YoY)

30%

20%

15%

10%

20.5%

2024

27.4%

1H25

DCcapacitybystandardracks(mn)

202420251026

16.0014.0012.0010.008.006.00

0.00

39%40%

35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%

46.2%

(inmillionsofstandard

42.8%

40.1%

YoY)

30.7%

2025Apr-26

Source:Nationa/EnergyAdministration(NEA)Source:MinistryofindustryandInformationTechnology

Reflectingthisfaster-than-expectedramp-up,wehaveupdatedourpreviousforecasts(2026outlookreport)withthelatestcapacityandpowerdemanddata.Weraiseour2030datacentrepowerdemandestimateby46%to805bnkWh,implying~6%ofChina'stotalelectricityconsumption(from～4.1%previously;vs.<2%in2025),incorporatingthelatestaccelerationinbothcapacitybuild-outandpowerdemandgrowth.ThisisinlinewiththelatestremarksthisweekbyWangHongzhi,headoftheNationalEnergyAdministration(NEA),indicatingannualincrementaldatacentrepowerdemandcouldexceed100bnkWhtill2030.

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoes

andseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmay

haveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasingle

factorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.THECONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDINTHEPEOPLE"SREPUBLICOFF

CHINA("THEPRC")(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCEWITHTHEAPPLICABLELAWSANDREGULATIONSOFPRC),EXCLUDING

SPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAU.

27May2026Utilities

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Figure3:China'sAl-relatedpowerdemandforecasts

(kWh)

Powerconsumptionbydatacenters

As%ofChina'stotalpowerconsumption

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

2030E

2.5%

270

2026E

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

1.9%

196

2025

1.2%1.3%

656

6.0%

2020

2022

2023

2024

3.2%

4.2%

1.7%

5.1%

1.6%

1.5%

375

508

805

Source:ChinaAcademyofInformationandCommunicationTechnology/CAICT,DeutscheBankestimates

Solarinstallationstaysmuted

China'ssolarnewinstallationsslowedsharplyinApril2026to9.5GW,down79%YoYversus45.2GWinApril2025,butthemagnitudeofthedeclineisheavilyskewedbylastyear'spolicy-drivenhighbase-installationswerepulledforwardaheadofanend-Maydeadline,whichdroveanunusuallylargespikeinApril-May2025.OnaYTDbasis,4M26additions(51GW)declinedc.51%YoY.TheYoYdeclineshouldmoderateinto2H26onalowerbase,andourfull-yearestimateremainsunchangedat215GW,implyinga32%YoYdecline.

StockRecommendations

WithinChinautilities,ourtoppicksareChinaResourcesPower(0836.HK),ChinaYangtzePower(600900.SS)andChinaGas(0384.HK),withafocusondividendvisibilityandresilientcashflowsamidamixedsectorbackdrop.ChinaResourcesPowerissupportedbyanabove-power-peerdividendyield(>5%),withadditionalupsidepotentialfromAl-relatedloadgrowthasdatacentreexpansionliftspowerdemand.ChinaYangtzePoweroffersstableearningsandpayoutvisibilitygivenitshydroprofile,withthekeynear-termvariablebeingsummerwaterinflowsduringthepeakseason.ChinaGashasthehighestdividendyield(~7%)amongutilitiesunderourcoverage,anditsnewlyproposedshareoptionschemehasa～15%annualprofitgrowthtargetthroughFY31,wellabovecurrentmarketexpectations.

Figure4:ChinaUtilitiesSector-Valuationcomparison

CompanyBBGticker

MarketCapRating(USDMN)

TP

(LC)

Price

(LC)

U/D

2026E

P/E(x)

2027E

2028E

2026E

P/B(x)

2027E

2028E

2026E

ROE(%)2027E

2028E

Divyield2026E2027E

(%)

2028E

EPSCAGR

2025-27E

Cleanenergyoperators

ChinaYangtzePower600900CH

CRPower836HK

LongyuanPower916HK

Gasdistributors

97,967Buy

36.00

27.14

33%

17.4

16.5

15.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

16.4

16.4

16.4

4.14.3

4.5

7%

13,544Buy

23.00

20.36

13%

8.1

7.2

6.6

0.9

0.8

0.8

11.3

11.8

12.0

5.35.6

6.1

0%

15,876Buy

8.10

6.42

26%

9.4

8.8

7.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

6.4

6.6

7.3

3.23.4

4.0

7%

ChinaGasHoldngs384HK

4,944Buy

10.00

7.33

36%

12.3

11.7

11.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

6.0

6.3

6.3

6.76.7

6.7

6%

ENNEnergy2688HK

7,981Buy

75.00

56.50

33%

8.4

8.1

8.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

13.3

13.0

12.1

5.45.7

5.8

8%

ChinaResourcesGas1193HKHKUtilities

5,387Hold

18.50

18.61

-1%

12.1

11.8

11.2

0.9

0.9

0.9

7.8

7.8

8.0

5.15.3

5.5

1%

CKInfrastructur038HK

19,695Buy

82.00

61.75

33%

52

18.7

18.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

19.3

5.4

5.5

4.14.1

4.2

3%

HKElectric2638HK

7,071Hold

7.00

6.25

12%

17.0

16.5

16.3

1.1

1.1

1.1

6.7

6.8

6.8

5.05.0

5.0

4%

Source:DeutscheBankestimates/Pr

icesasof26May202

6)

Previousissues:March2025,April2025,May2025,June2025,July2025,August

2025,September2025,October2025,November2025,December2025,January2026,March2026

Page2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

27May2026Utilities

ChinaUtilitiesSector

TableOfContents

PowerandAI 4

PowerandAI 5

PowerdemandgrowthinApril 6

Powersupply-hydromomentumremainsinthenearterm 7

Powerutilization 8

Powercapacitiesadditions 9

Powertariffsandcoalprices 10

Valuationcomparison-renewableoperators 1

Renewableoperators-one-year-forwardP/Bhistory 12

Renewableoperators-dividendyieldhistory 13

Gasdemandtrendingweaker 14

ChinaGas-newshareoptionschemeproposed 15

Valuationcomparison-gasutilities 16

Gasutilities-one-year-forwardP/Ehistory 17

Gasutilities-Dividendyieldhistory 18

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage3

300

656

Figure5:China'spowerconsumptionbydatacenters

800

700

600

Powerconsumptionbydatacenters

6.0%

7.0%

☆As%ofChina'stotalpowerconsumption

4.2%

5.1%

6.0%

5.0%

3.2%

4.0%

400

200

100

2.5%

1.2%1.3%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.9%

270

375

508

305

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Source:ChinaAcademyofInformationandCommunicationTechnology(CA/CT),DeutscheBankestimates

PowerandAl

■During2020-25,China'sdatacentrepowerconsumptiongrewata16%CAGR,significantlyoutpacingoverallpowerdemandgrowthof6%overthesameperiod.By2025,theindustryconsumed196bnkWhofelectricityannually,accountingfor1.9%ofChina'stotalpowerdemand.

■By1Q26,China'soperatingdatacentrecapacityreached14.45mnstandardracks,up39%YoY,markingaclearaccelerationfromlow-teensgrowthin2024anda23%CAGRover2019-24.Atthesametime,IT-relatedpowerdemandgrowthpickedupfrom2H25,withmonthlygrowthat18-21%YoYfrom2H25through4M26,versus15%in1H25.

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Figure6:CAGRcomparison-datacenterpowerdemandvs.totalpowerdemand

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

■Powerconsumptionbydatacenters

■China'stotalpowerconsumption

15.9%

6.3%

26.6%

4.5%

2020-25Source:CA/CT,DeutscheBankestimates

2025-30E

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

(mn)

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-Feb25

Mar-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

25%

20%

21%

20249%4898°%192949%18299

12%3%2%1%

15%

10%

10%8%

5%

0%

14.45

39%

27%30%9.00

25%8.1Q4%

5.20

3.154.01

5%

0%

2019202020212022202320242025

16.0014.0012.0010.00

8.006.004.002.00

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

10%

2.26

2018

1026

Apr-25

Source:MinistryofindustryandInformationTechnology(MIT)

Source:WIND

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage5

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

PowerandAl

■In2025-30E,weexpectChina'sdatacentrepowerconsumptionCAGRtoaccelerateto27%,upfrom16%in2020-25.By2030,weestimatedemandtoreach805bnkWh,accountingfor6.0%ofChina'stotalpowerconsumption,representinganeartriplingfromthe2025level.

Figure9:Chinapowerconsumptionforecastmodelfordatacenters

(bnkWh)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Powerconsumptionbydatacenters

94

112

130

150

166

196

270

375

508

656

805

-YoY

14.0%

18.8%

16.5%

15.4%

10.7%

18.1%

37.8%

38.7%

35.7%

29.0%

22.8%

China'stotalpowerconsumption

7,626

8,377

8,637

9,224

9,852

10,368

10,956

11,547

12,169

12,809

13,479

-YoY

4.1%

9.8%

3.1%

6.8%

6.8%

5.2%

5.7%

5.4%

5.4%

5.3%

5.2%

DCpowerconsumptionas%ofChina'stotalpowerconsumption

1.2%

1.3%

1.5%

1.6%

1.7%

1.9%

2.5%

3.2%

4.2%

5.1%

6.0%

Keyassumptions:

Year-enddatacentercapacitybypowercapacity(MW)

10,025

13,000

16,300

20,250

22,500

31,250

42,188

56,953

74,039

92,549

111,059

-YoY

27%

30%

25%

24%

11%

39%

35%

35%

30%

25%

20%

Time-weighteddatacentercapacitybypowercapacity(MW)

8,950

11,513

14,650

18,275

21,375

26,875

36,719

49,570

65,496

83,294

101,804

-YoY

n.a.

29%

27%

25%

17%

26%

37%

35%

32%

27%

22%

Utilizationrate

74%

71%

67%

63%

61%

58%

60%

63%

66%

68%

69%

PUE(PowerUsageEffectiveness)

1.62

1.55

1.52

1.48

1.46

1.43

1.40

1.37

1.34

1.32

1.30

Powerconsumptionbyservers(bnkWh)

58

72

86

101

114

137

193

273

379

497

619

Powerconsumptionbycoolingsystemandothers(bnkWh)

36

40

44

49

52

59

77

101

129

159

186

Source:CAICT,MIT,DeutscheBankestimaes

PowerdemandgrowthinApril

ReYidnentilo26erdemiantdindicatescontinuedgrowthtrajectory,risingby5.3%/8.9%/6.0%YoY,respectively.Agriculturalpowerdemandeasedto+2.0%

(sameas2H25).

YoYinApril²026.Withintheserviceindustry,theInformationTechnology(T)sector'spowerdemandexhibitedrobustgrowthof19%YoYinApril2026

Residintia²6.China'spoweirconsumptionrecordeda6.0%YoY,anotableacelerationcomparedtothe+3.5%YoYinMarch2025.Industria/Servicel

Figure10:China-monthlytotalpowerconsumption(YoY)

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-Feb25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

10.4%

8.9%8.5%8.6%8.6%8.6%

282204.79%.4%5%%

12.0%11.0%

10.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

es74.8%

2.8%

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration

Figure12:China-powerconsumptionbreakdown(Apr2026)

ResidentialPrimary

12%(Agricultural)1%

Tertiary

(Service)

19%

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

Secondary

(Industrial)

68%

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-Feb25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

Figure11:China-monthlypowerconsumptionbyenduser(YoY)

——Primary(Agricultural)—Secondary(Industrial)

30.0%——Residential

20.0%10.0%0.0%

-10.0%

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration

Figure13:PowerconsumptionfromITsector-YoY

25%20%

15%12%13%2%1%

10%5%

0%

20%19%18>8%

.24

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Powersupply-hydromomentumremainsinthenearterm

■China'stotalpowergenerationvolumeincreasedby2.6%YoYto744bnkWhinApr2026,acceleratingfromthe1.4%YoYgrowthobservedinMar2026.

ThermaloutputexperiencedaslowerbutstillpositiveYoYincreaseof3.1%(vs.4.2%YoYinMar2026).Hydrooutputcontinuedtosurgeby12.2%YoY(vs.10.8%YoYinMar2026).

■Solarpoweroutputmoderatedtoa7.1%YoYinApr2026(comparedwith+10%YoYinMar2026).Windpoweroutputexperiencedalessseveredecreaseof5%YoYinApr2026(vs.-17.3%inMarch2026).Nuclearpoweroutputsawalesspronounceddropof8.7%YoYinApr2026(vs.11.8%YoYdecreaseinMarch2026).

Figure14:China-monthlytotalpowergenerationvolume(YoY)

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Jan-Feb25g

Mar-25o%

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

8.3%

5.8%6.0%3.1%2.3%

2.3%|2.5%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.7%

4.1%

2.6%

3.1%

7.9%

1.8%

0.19%

Source:NationalBureauofStatistics

Figure16:China-powergenerationoutputbreakdown(Apr2026)

Figure15:China-monthlypowergenerationvolumebyfueltype(YoY)

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-Feb25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

GZ-Inr

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

Source:Nationa/BureauofStatistics

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Solar

Wind

12%

6%

Nuclear5%

Hydro

11%Thermal

66%

Page8DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Powerutilization

■Thermal.Wecalculatethatthermalutilizationhoursdecreased3.3%YoYnApril2026,largelysimilartothe2.6%YoYdeclinesrecordedinMarch2026.

■Hydro.Wecalculatethathydroutilizationhoursincreasedby8.9%YoYinApril2026.

■Wind/solar/Nuclear.InApril2026,Nuclear/Windutilizationdecreasedby16.1%/18.1%YoY,whileSolarutilizationincreasedby1.1%YoY,respectively,asperourcalculations.

Figure18:ThermalpowermonthlyutilizationhoursandYoYchanges

Figure17:UtilizationhoursYoYchangebyfueltypeinApr2026(DBe)

15.0%

10.0%

8.9%

5.0%

1.1%

0.0%

-5.0%-3.3%

-10.0%

-15.0%

-20.0%

-16.1%

-18.1%

Source:DeutscheBankestimates

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-Feb25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

Hydro

NuclearWindSolar

Thermal

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

-15.0%

Utilizationhours——YoYchange

900

800

500

400

300

200

100

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration,DeutscheBankestimates

Figure20:Wind/solarmonthlyutilizationhours(YoY)

Utilizationhours——YoYchange60.0%

30.0%

0.0%-30.0%

600

400

200

0

Figure19:HydropowermonthlyutilizationhoursandYoYchanges

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-Feb25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

Jan-Feb24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-Feb25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Ju-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-Feb26

Mar-26

Apr-26

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

-30.0%

-40.0%

Source:Nationa/EnergyAdministration,DeutscheBankestimates

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration,DeutscheBankestimates

DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Powercapacitiesadditions

■Solar.Chinaadded9.5GWofnewsolarpowercapacityinApril2026,down79%YoY.For2026,weestimatefull-yearsolarinstallationsat215GW,downa32%YoY.

■Wind.Chinaadded5.5GWofwindpowercapacityinApil2026,markinga3%YoYincrease.WeestimateChinatoadd110GWand120GWofwindpowercapacitiesin2026Eand2027E,respectively(vs.119GWin2025).

■Thermal/hydro/nuclear.InApril2026,Chinaadded4.0GWofnewthermalpowercapacity,up6.4%YoY.Forhydro,1.0GWwasaddedinApril2026,up

98.1%YoY.Fornuclear,2.4GWwasadded.

Figure21:China-monthlysolarinstallations

Figure22:China-annualsolarinstallationdemandestimates

(GW)

(GW)

■2025

40.2

32.5

22.0

14.4

10.00.0

OctNovDec

100.090.080.070.060.050.040.030.0

■2026

45.2

20.2

39.5

11.0

May

Jan-Feb

92.9

Aug

9.5

Apr

Sep

Jul

Jun

7.4

Chinademand

278

148%

217215

100%

59%5512%

-50%

300

250

200

150

100

50

200%

150%

7%0%

50%

240

280

260

0

(M9)

Source:Nationa/EnergyAdministration

Figure23:China-monthlywindinstallations

40.0

35.030.025.020.015.0

9.371.010.0

5.34.75.0

0.0

Jan-Feb

36.8

■2025■2026

26.3

12.5

5.35.5

5.1

4.2

3.3

2.3

Sep

JunJulAug

Apr

May

NovDec

Source:Nationa/EnergyAdministration

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration,DeutscheBankestimate

Figure24:China-power

capacity

additionbreakdown

(GW)

60.0

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

28.0

4.0

1.02.5

2.43.6

21.3

5.5

50.9

9.5

Thermal

Source:NationalEnergyAdministration

Hydro

NuclearWind

Solar

Page10DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Powertariffsandcoalprices

■Thermalmarket-basedtariffs.Theaveragemarket-basedtariffforJanuary-May2026(basedonvolumesprocuredbypowergridenterprisesaspurchasingagents)declinedby9-13%YoY,indicatingcontinuedweaknessdespitetherecentreboundincoalprices.

■Coalprice.Amidstconsiderableglobalenergypricehikes,China'sQinhuangdaospotthermalcoalprice(5,500kcal)roseby15%sincelateFebruary(or23%YTDin2026).Theaveragespotpricein5M26was5%higherthan5M25.

Figure25:China'saveragemonthlymarket-basedpowertariffs

1000

Figure26:Qinhuangdao5500kcalspotthermalcoalprice

(RMB/MWh)

Jan-24

eb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Jul-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

May-26

(Rmb/tonne)

900

800

700

600

500

Source:BloombergFinanceLP

■Averagetariff

392391395398400

395393973938s2383639

362361

-8%

342343

-10%

-12%

-14%

440

400

380

360

340

320

300

0%

-2%

4%

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage11

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Valuationcomparison-renewableoperators

■AmongChinarenewableoperators,welikeChinaResourcesPower(0836.HK)andChinaYangtzePower(600900.SS).

■ChinaResourcesPowerissupportedbyanabove-power-peerdividendyield(>5%),withadditionalupsidepotentialfromAl-relatedloadgrowthasdatacentreexpansionliftspowerdemand.

■ChinaYangtzePoweroffersstableearningsandpayoutvisibilitygivenitshydroprofile,withthekeynear-termvariablebeingsummerwaterinflowsduringthepeakseason.ThestocktradesataFY26Edividendyieldof~4%ora~230bpspremiumtoChina's10-yeargovernmentbondyield(closetopast-five-yearpeak;vs.historicalaveragepremiumof110bps).

■Keyrisksare1)worse-than-expectedrenewablepowertariffs,2)weaker-than-expectedpowerdemand,3)higher-than-expectedinterestrate/financecost.

Figure27:Valuationcomparison-renewableoperators

CompanyBBGticker

MarketCap

(USDMN)

Rating

TP

(LC)

Price

(LC)

U/D

P/E(x)

P/B(x)

ROE(%)

Divyield(%)

2026E2027E2028E

EPSCAGR

2025-27E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2026E

2027E

2028E

Cleanenergyoperators

ChinaYangtzePower600900CH

97,967

Buy

36.00

27.14

33%

17.4

16.5

15.6

2.8

2.6

2.5

16.4

16.4

16.4

4.14.34.5

7%

CRPower836HK

13,544

Buy

23.00

20.36

13%

8.1

7.2

6.6

0.9

0.8

0.8

11.2

11.8

12.0

5.35.66.1

0%

LongyuanPower916HK

15,876

Buy

8.10

6.42

26%

9.4

8.8

7.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

6.4

6.6

7.3

3.23.44.0

7%

Source:DeutscheBankestimates/Pricesasof26May2026)

Page12DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Renewableoperators-one-year-forwardP/Bhistory

Figure29:LongyuanPower(0916.HK)-one-year-forwardP/Bhistory

Figure28:ChinaYangtzePower(600900.SS)-one-year-forwardP/Bhistory

这

3.5

3.0

区2.5

2.0

1.5

Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankestimates

Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankestimates

Figure30:ChinaResourcesPower(0836.HK)-one-year-forwardP/Bhistory

1.6

1.4

1.2 1.0区0.8 0.6 0.4 0.20.0

Jan-20

Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankestimates

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage13

ChinaUtilitiesSector

27May2026

Utilities

Renewableoperators-dividendyieldhistory

Figure32:LongyuanPower(0916.HK)-dividendyieldhistory

Figure31:ChinaYangtzePower(600900.SS)-dividendyieldhistory

6.05.04.03.02.01.0

0.0

Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

4.6

4.4

4.24.03.83.63.43.23.0

Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankestimates

Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankestimates

Figure33:ChinaResourcesPower(0836.HK)-dividendyieldhistory

(%)

9.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.0

0.0

Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25Jan-26

Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankestimates

Gasdemandtrendingweaker

■NationaldemanddataforApril2026hasyettobereleased.InMarch2026,mainlandChina'sgasconsumptiondeclined4.8%YoYto34.1bncubicmetres.

Meanwhile,accordingtoHongKong'sCensusandStatisticsDepartment,HongKong'sgasconsumptionfell5.9%YoYinMarch2026.

Figure34:Chinamonthlynaturalgasdemand(YoY)

20.0%

14.8%

15.0%11.8%12.8.9%

10.0%

5.1%

1.9%

-1.6%-1.3%-0.9%

6.4%s8%657272825.0%

0.5%0.1%

0.0%

-0.5%

-5.0%

-10.0%

-2.0%

-4.8%

-3.4%

Mar-25

Mar-26

0Jan-Feb26

Mar-24Dec-24

Jan-Feb24

Source:NDRC

Figure36:HongKongmonthlygasdemand(YoY)

Figure35:Chinaannualgasdemand

448

15.0%

325

10.0%

250

5.0%

3.0—3.0%0.0%

50

-5.0%

■Chinatotalgasdemand

426427395

YoY

439

200

100

450

400

18.3%

一

Source:NDRC

Page14DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

10.0%

7.5%

8.1%

6.7%

8.0%

4.5%

6.0%

2.3%

0.7%0.8%6.7%0.5°9.796.1%.3%.

-1.0%

8%-2.92.6%A2%8128%-3.3%-3.8%

4.0%

5%

2.0%

0.0%

-0.4%-0.3%

-2.0%

-2.2%

-5.9%-6.7%

4.0%-2.

-6.0%

-8.0%

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Ju-25

Aug-25

Sep-25

Oct-25

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Source:CensusandStatisticsDepartmentofHongKong

DeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage15

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

ChinaGas-newshareoptionschemeproposed

ChinaGasrecentlyproposedanew2026ShareAwarSchemewithaschememandatelimitofupto10%oftotalissuedshares(c.544.8mshares).Withinthis,thecompanyconditionallygranted462mawardsharestofiveexecutivedirectors(managementteam),subjecttoshareholderapprovalatanSGM.Theschemesetsthefollowingprofittargetsforvesting:

■≥15%annualprofitgrowthoverFY26-FY31

■≥101.14%cumulativeprofitgrowthoverFY26-FY31

Figure38:Profittargetsforvesting

SupplementalAnnouncement(10May2026)

AnnualTarget

Nolessthan15%YoYprofitincrement(FY2026-2031)

UltimateTarget

Nolessthan101.14%cumulativeprofitincreasebyFY2031(vs.FY2026)

Figure37:Granteesandnumberofawardshares

Name

PositionoftheBoard

Numberof

Award

Shares

Approximate%oftotal

issuedSharesatthedateof

thisannouncement

Mr.LIUMingHui

Chairman,presidentandexecutiveDirector

270,000,000

4.96%

Mr.HUANGYong

ExecutiveDirector

54,000,000

0.99%

Mr.ZHUWeiwei

ExecutiveDirector

48,000,000

0.88%

Dr.LIUChang

ExecutiveDirector

45,000,000

0.83%

Dr.LIUMingxing

ExecutiveDirector

45,000,000

0.83%

Others

Otheremployee

82,815,274

1.52%

Total

544,815,274

10.00%

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

Page16DeutscheBankAG/HongKong

ChinaUtilitiesSector

Utilities

27May2026

Valuationcomparison-gasutilities

■Ofthegasutilities,ChinaGasHoldings(0384.HK)iisourtoppick,mainlyonitsattractivedividendyield(6.7%FY26E),thehighestamonggaspeers(~5%)andalsooneofthehighestamongutilitiesstocksunderourcoverage.

Figure39:Valuationcomparison-gasutilities

CompanyBBGticker

MarketCapRating(USDMN)

TPPrice

(LC)(LC)U/D

P/E(x)

2026E2027E2028E

P/B(x)

2026E2027E2028E

ROE(%)

2026E2027E2028E

Divyield(%)

2026E2027E2028E

EPSCAGR

2025-27E

Gasdistributors

ChinaGasHoldings384HK

ENNEnergy2688HK

ChinaResourcesGas1193HKSource:DeutscheBankestimates/pricesasof

4,944Buy

7,981Buy

5,387Hold26May2026/

10.0075.00

18.50

7.3356.50

18.61

36%

33%

-1%

12.311.711.78.48.18.1

12.111.811.2

0.70.70.71.1