基础化工行业点评报告：2025年化工板块营收延续增长2026Q1板块盈利能力改善明显

目 录12026Q130010.79%30019.2542、基础化工：2026Q1业绩同比上行明显，2025年胶黏剂及胶带、农药等板块盈利增速领先 6、板块总览：营收延续增长，2025年归母净利润增速转正，2026Q1业绩同比上行明显 7、子行业分析：2025年胶黏剂及胶带、农药等板块盈利增速领先 83、石油石化：2026Q1，石油石化板块盈利能力改善，炼油化工利润同比增速领先 、板块总览：2026Q1，石油石化板块利润同环比增长明显 、子行业分析：2026Q1，油气开采、油田服务营收同比增长；炼油化工利润同比增速领先 1342025年，亚钾国际、三美股份等营收同比增速居前，2026Q1多数龙头公司归母净利润同比增长145、盈利预测及投资建议 176、风险提示 18图表目录图1：2025年基础化工行业指数跑赢沪深300指数15.62%，石油石化行业指数跑输沪深300指数5.95% 4图2：2026Q1，CCPI指数上涨37.05% 4图3：截至2026年3月31日，基础化工行业PE为32.23倍、历史分位77.9%（2010年以来） 5图4：截至2026年3月31日，基础化工行业PB为2.4倍、历史分位50.14%（2010年以来） 5图5：2025年，基础化工行业涨跌幅+33.29%、石油石化行业涨跌幅+11.71% 5图6：2026Q1，基础化工行业涨跌幅+6.91%、石油石化行业涨跌幅+15.36% 5图7：2025年，国内化学原料及化学制品制造业营收累计同比+0.50% 6图8：2025年，国内化学原料及化学制品制造业固定资产投资完成额累计同比6图9：2026年以来，国际油价波动剧烈 6图10：2026年4月29日,国内天然气价格较年初+71% 6图基础化工板块经营情况：营收延续增长，2025年归母净利润增速转正，2026Q1业绩同比上行明显 7图12：基础化工板块资本开支及现金流：2025年，资本性支出2298.1亿元，同比-6.0%；经营性现金流净额2829.1亿元，同比+9.9% 7图13：基础化工子行业经营情况：2025年胶黏剂及胶带、农药等板块盈利增速领先 8图14：基础化工子行业盈利能力：2025年钾肥、食品及饲料添加剂、氟化工等板块归母净利率排名靠前 9图15：基础化工子行业资本开支及现金流：2025年无机盐、纯碱、氟化工等资本性支出同比增速领先 1016202574523.3亿元，同比-6%3292亿元，同比-11.5%（包括中国石油、中国石化） 图17：石油石化板块资本开支及现金流：2025年，经营性现金流净额9299.6亿元，同比+4%（包括中国石油、中国石化） 1818042.71400.9-10.8%（剔除中国石油、中国石化） 12图19：石油石化板块资本开支及现金流：2025年，经营性现金流净额3549.6亿元，同比+4.9%（剔除中国石油、中国石化） 13图20：石油石化子行业经营情况：2026Q1，油气开采、油田服务营收同比增长（剔除中国石油、中国石化） 13图21：石油石化子行业盈利能力：2025年，油气开采、油品石化贸易等子行业盈利能力较强（剔除中国石油、中国石化） 图22：石油石化子行业资本开支及现金流：2025年，油品石化贸易板块在建工程下降明显（剔除中国石油、中国石化）..........................................................................................................................................................................................................14图23：化工龙头白马经营情况：2026Q1多数龙头公司归母净利润同比增长 15图24：化工龙头白马盈利能力：2026Q1多数龙头公司销售净利率实现同环比提升 15图25：化工龙头白马资本开支及现金流：2025年，龙头公司经营性现金流净额整体增长 16图26：化工龙头白马资本开支及现金流：2026Q1，龙头公司在建工程规模整体下降 16表1：重点跟踪公司盈利预测与估值 171、行业总览：2026Q1基础化工行业指数跑赢沪深300指数10.79%，石油石化行业指数跑赢沪深300指数19.25%行业指数：截至2025年12月31日，3968.8（20250101日3351.818.41%3004629.94372.42586.711.71%；CCPI（）39308.75%（20250101日-202512313003005.95%2026年03313891.9（202601013968.8点下跌1.9304450.13.8474.42984.2（538637.05%（20260101日-2026033130010.79%30019.25%。行业估值水平：据数据，20251231日，30.18，市净率PB2.238.12%;行业市盈率PE为21151.93PB为1.39318%（201020260331PE32.23史分位779PB为245014石油石化行业市盈率PE为24.1286.4%；市净率PB1.5840.25%（2010。图1：2025年基础化工行业指数跑赢沪深300指数15.62%，石油石化行业指数跑输沪深300指数5.95%6,0005,0004,0003,000

图2：2026Q1，CCPI指数上涨37.05%7,0006,0005,0004,0000石化

0格指数）图2026331PE32.23倍、历史分位77.9%（2010年以来）

图4：截至2026年3月31日，基础化工行业PB为2.4倍、历史分位50.14%（2010年以来）9080706050403020100市盈率PE:基础化工 市盈率PE:石油石化

6.05.04.03.02.01.00.0市净率PB:基础化工 市净率PB:石油石化行业涨跌幅：据 据，2025年01月01日-2025年12月31日间个二级子行业中有29>203329、819202601月01日2026年03月1311>20<，其中基础化工行业涨跌幅为6.91%615.36%、2图5：2025+33.29%行业涨跌幅

图6：2026Q1，基础化工行业涨跌幅+6.91%、石油石化跌幅+15.36%33.3%11.7%33.3%11.7%80.0%60.0%

20.0%15.4%15.0%15.4%10.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%有色金属有色金属房地产交煤炭

0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%房地产计算机美容2025年01月01日-2025年12月31日期间涨跌幅 2026年01月01日-2026年03月31日期间涨跌幅2025年化学原料及化学制品制造业营收增长，固定资产投资完成额累计同比8025343.8亿元3766.2,成本端026年以来国油价震荡走带动国内然气价格较年初+0.5无烟煤价格较年初+5.71%。据 和川孚据，2025，OPEC子原油均价69.61美元桶同+14.86%，内然均价4328.27元/同+6.6%，国893.61元/+18.44%20260429日,OPEC112.83/+85.09%6229元+70.56%，国内无烟煤参考价格944元/吨、较年初+5.71%。图7：2025年，国内化学原料及化学制品制造业营收累计同比+0.50%

图8：2025年，国内化学原料及化学制品制造业固定资产投资完成额累计同比-8%100.0%

100%80.0%60.0%40.0%

80%60%20.0%0.0%

40%-20.0%-40.0%2012-062012-122013-062012-062012-122013-062013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-062023-122024-062024-122025-062025-12-80.0%2017-122018-122019-122020-122021-122022-122023-122024-122025-12

-20%:营业收入:累计同比中国:利润总额:化学原料和化学制品制造业:

-40%

中国:固定资产投资完成额:制造业:化学原料及化学制品制造业:累计同比国家统计局 国家统计局图9：2026年以来，国际油价动剧烈 图10：2026年4月29日国内然气价格较年初+71%国际原油现货价（美元/桶）2000

国内煤炭/天然气参考价格（元/吨）3,0000

10,0009,008,007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000OPEC:一揽子原油价格 现货价:原油(阿联酋迪拜) 中国:参考价格:无烟煤 中国:参考价格:动力煤现货价:原油(布伦特):FOB欧洲 现货价:原油(WTI):FOB库欣 中国:参考价格:炼焦煤 中国:参考价格:天然气（右轴）、百川盈孚2、基础化工：2026Q1业绩同比上行明显，2025年胶黏剂及胶带、农药等板块盈利增速领先我们选取基础化工板块8家沪深两市A（剔除S、*，并对29、板块总览：营收延续增长，2025年归母净利润增速转正，2026Q1业绩同比上行明显24743.6128.6+.4202Q663.5.环比+1.4%；实现归母净利润153.5亿元，同比-15.0%、环比-60.6%。2026Q1，实现营收63847+104+.344.1+5.3、环比+187.3%。盈利能力：202517.1%+0.38pcts54+0.1c202Q416.8+0.9pc0.35c；2.4%-0.55pcts-4.2pcts。2026Q117.8%，同比+0.74pcts+1.08pcts6.9%+4.2pcts+4.5pcts。期间费用：20252361.8+5%+0.14pcts684.9+13.5%+14.1%；10.8%+0.89pcts+1.9pcts2026Q1594-13.3%9.3%+0.45pcts-1.46pcts。2298.1-6%20253115.9-20.8%15586.9+13.4%。现金流：20252829.1+9.9%。图11：基础化工板块经营情况：营收延续增长，2025年归母净利润增速转正，2026Q1业绩同比上行明显基础化工当期值（亿元）同比变化（pcts）环比变化（pcts）2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2025Q42026Q12020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2025Q42026Q12025Q42026Q1营业收入15256.616113.221156.324380.023130.223914.124743.66363.56384.75.6%31.3%15.2%-5.1%3.4%3.5%4.2%10.4%1.4%0.3%营业成本11978.712779.016276.019459.219175.319919.920515.95297.05245.66.7%27.4%19.6%-1.5%3.9%3.0%3.4%9.4%1.9%-1.0%毛利3277.93334.24880.34920.93954.93994.24227.71066.51139.21.7%46.4%0.8%-19.6%1.0%5.8%8.0%15.2%-1.3%6.8%期间费用：1987.51833.71958.31999.92113.02248.32361.8684.9594.0-7.7%6.8%2.1%5.7%6.4%5.0%13.5%16.1%14.1%-13.3%其中：销售费用727.5514.5426.1446.7473.6491.9507.4139.4125.9-29.3%-17.2%4.8%6.0%3.9%3.1%4.7%8.9%9.8%-9.7%管理费用646.9661.2763.2824.9846.5879.9914.2271.7217.72.2%15.4%8.08%2.6%3.9%3.9%8.4%4.0%22.9%-19.9%研发费用340.3380.2515.3590.3619.0654.8689.2191.1154.611.7%35.5%14.6%4.9%5.8%5.3%8.7%6.8%6.8%-19.1%财务费用272.8277.8253.6137.9173.9221.6251.082.795.71.8%-8.7%-45.6%26.1%27.5%13.2%89.5%128.6%13.3%15.7%归母净利润528.51117.52314.02234.01325.01260.31328.6153.5441.1111.5%107.1%-3.5%-40.7%-4.9%5.4%-15.0%15.3%-60.6%187.3%销售毛利率21.5%20.7%23.1%20.2%17.1%16.7%17.1%16.8%17.8%-0.792.38-2.88-3.09-0.400.380.590.74-0.351.08期间费用率13.0%11.4%9.3%8.2%9.1%9.4%9.5%10.8%9.3%-1.65-2.12-1.050.930.270.140.890.451.91-1.46其中：%2.1%2.2%2.0%-1.58-1.18-0.180.220.01-0.010.01-0.030.19-0.22%3.7%4.3%3.4%-0.14-0.50-0.220.280.020.020.16-0.210.65-0.86研发费用率2.2%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.7%2.7%2.8%3.0%2.4%0.130.08-0.010.250.060.050.13-0.080.50-0.58财务费用率1.8%1.7%1.2%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.0%1.3%1.5%-0.06-0.52-0.630.190.180.090.590.770.580.20归母净利率3.5%6.9%10.9%9.2%5.7%5.3%5.4%2.4%6.9%3.474.00-1.77-3.43-0.460.10-0.550.29-4.204.50图12：基础化工板块资本开支及现金流：2025年，资本性支出2298.1亿元，同比-6.0%；经营性现金流净额2829.1亿元，同比+9.9%基础化工当期值/期末值（亿元）同比变化2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2026Q12020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y在建工程1510.41727.32193.13208.63628.23934.23115.93146.514.4%27.0%46.3%13.1%8.4%-20.8%固定资产7263.17939.58785.010223.412232.413748.015586.97789.89.3%10.7%16.4%19.7%12.4%13.4%资本性支出1340.71507.92104.22744.32911.52443.62298.1490.912.5%39.6%30.4%6.1%-16.1%-6.0%经营性.52908.82406.62574.32829.1256.21.8%34.4%12.3%-17.3%7.0%9.9%2025年胶黏剂及胶带、农药等板块盈利增速领先20252918(10.4%)2026Q12925收同比增长，有4个子行业营收同比下降。营收同比增速前十名的子行业分别是：钾肥(72.2%)、非金属材料、聚氨酯、氟化工、纺织化学制品、轮胎、膜材料、复合肥、氮肥、涤纶(14.6%)。基础化工子行业归母净利润增速：2025291316(476.4%)(9.8%)。291712(275.2%)(32.6%)。图13：基础化工子行业经营情况：2025年胶黏剂及胶带、农药等板块盈利增速领先项目营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）基础化工子行业2025Y同比增速2026Q1同比增速环比增速2025Y同比增速2026Q1同比增速环比增速纯碱399.9-13.5%93.7-4.8%-9.6%-1.9-106.3%2.5-20.9%121.9%氯碱1249.6-1.8%311.52.3%-1.4%31.4282.8%8.0-31.2%1671.3%无机盐355.3-3.4%84.3-0.6%-13.2%19.1-29.9%2.6-48.6%-45.7%煤化工1479.410.4%384.39.3%8.3%125.025.1%45.846.1%133.9%钛白粉438.4-4.3%120.10.3%9.9%9.9-64.2%3.2-62.1%142.3%涂料油墨163.9-7.0%39.70.9%8.5%7.9-19.3%2.1-27.2%312.7%民爆制品745.415.8%158.412.2%-26.1%40.0-4.4%8.323.1%70.7%纺织化学制品301.9-8.4%86.521.6%6.6%27.79.8%9.071.1%5.9%氟化工757.516.3%194.722.7%-0.2%85.3138.2%27.464.3%79.6%聚氨酯2171.410.6%576.424.4%-8.1%129.1-4.6%38.319.7%14.0%食品及饲料添加剂1143.72.2%297.24.8%1.8%149.213.1%28.6-41.6%36.5%有机硅385.1-15.7%99.52.2%1.4%-20.1-166.9%5.3-9.6%120.6%胶黏剂及胶带177.716.4%41.813.6%-13.0%4.6476.4%1.235.2%173.1%涤纶927.55.4%223.114.6%-12.8%23.2-0.3%6.7-3.6%304.1%粘胶144.317.3%38.013.1%-1.2%2.2-29.3%1.5202.9%166.7%氨纶277.9-9.9%78.26.1%12.5%19.0-17.8%6.832.7%70.9%锦纶295.6-21.1%70.5-9.9%4.7%1.1-87.6%0.2-83.9%122.3%改性塑料1309.38.1%317.96.0%-5.3%31.635.7%8.918.8%144.1%合成树脂334.19.9%77.02.7%-12.2%27.64.3%3.5-44.6%-40.9%膜材料367.41.0%100.220.1%4.2%5.0-21.7%9.4275.2%407.1%炭黑219.2-7.3%51.5-4.1%-7.8%4.9-56.6%0.7-72.4%174.6%橡胶助剂68.72.6%19.111.0%7.9%7.67.2%2.48.8%128.6%轮胎1611.611.0%456.121.3%10.8%119.8-14.3%31.7-0.2%51.8%199.016.8%5.3%29.3-29.1%11.9104.8%341.3%磷肥及磷化工1210.9-6.0%297.40.4%8.9%77.2-9.1%20.812.3%2019.9%钾肥292.812.1%100.572.2%18.1%152.173.6%55.3123.0%-3.9%17.0%7.5%51.328.2%15.413.7%24.7%农药1811.74.6%468.66.2%7.9%41.1416.9%30.132.6%632.9%非金属材料231.622.3%61.424.9%-5.9%14.68.4%4.71.8%220.8%20252918(55.2%)(20.2%)1613(63.2%)(20.1%)。20252918(51.9%)(6.4%)2026Q1291316(55.1%)工(7%)。图142025项目销售毛利率（pcts）归母净利率（pcts）基础化工子行业2025Y同比2026Q1同比环比2025Y同比2026Q1同比环比纯碱18.5%-5.6017.2%-0.680.78-0.5%-7.172.7%-0.5513.79氯碱15.2%2.3613.8%-2.27-0.332.5%1.872.6%-1.262.74无机盐20.2%-3.1817.4%-2.42-1.675.4%-2.033.1%-2.88-1.85煤化工17.8%1.4020.0%2.574.478.4%1.0011.9%3.006.40钛白粉16.0%-3.6913.1%-4.520.322.3%-3.782.7%-4.369.55涂料油墨23.5%0.6622.2%-1.07-0.224.8%-0.745.2%-2.027.92民爆制品24.7%0.1922.0%0.52-4.865.4%-1.135.3%0.472.99纺织化学制品24.4%1.1327.5%3.942.089.2%1.5210.4%3.00-0.06氟化工25.7%7.8829.4%4.534.1711.3%5.7614.1%3.576.26聚氨酯13.6%-2.3514.6%-0.920.725.9%-0.946.6%-0.271.29食品及饲料添加剂26.6%0.0822.8%-7.270.0913.0%1.269.6%-7.622.44有机硅12.7%-6.8220.1%3.968.60-5.2%-11.815.4%-0.7031.84胶黏剂及胶带12.5%0.7513.0%0.86-0.092.6%2.052.8%0.461.94涤纶7.4%0.099.0%0.582.762.5%-0.143.0%-0.562.35粘胶11.1%-1.7113.1%2.162.441.6%-1.023.9%2.452.46氨纶13.6%-0.4818.4%4.407.816.8%-0.658.8%1.762.99锦纶8.2%-2.019.1%-0.781.810.4%-2.050.3%-1.411.76改性塑料13.1%1.4213.0%0.76-2.202.4%0.492.8%0.301.72合成树脂20.6%1.1919.7%-0.26-1.038.3%-0.444.5%-3.87-2.20膜材料15.8%0.8818.2%2.043.541.4%-0.399.4%6.3812.58炭黑9.2%-1.347.7%-2.920.572.3%-2.561.4%-3.453.13橡胶助剂20.8%-0.6520.2%-1.610.1711.1%0.4812.7%-0.266.71轮胎19.4%-2.1721.9%3.112.417.4%-2.206.9%-1.501.8815.5%4.150.593.8%-1.776.0%2.564.54磷肥及磷化工17.7%0.8616.2%1.74-1.276.4%-0.227.0%0.746.63钾肥55.2%8.5063.2%11.6310.0851.9%18.4155.1%12.54-12.65-0.36-0.503.9%0.524.0%-0.120.56农药21.6%2.3622.4%0.42-0.372.3%3.026.4%1.287.72非金属材料18.3%1.3715.8%-5.24-2.186.3%-0.807.6%-1.725.3620259112175(61.6%)品(33.1%)2545(32.8%)(24.2%)（3）202512175(237.7%)(31.2%)。基础化工子行业现金流：20252916135(21591.3%)(103.4%)。图15：基础化工子行业资本开支及现金流：2025年无机盐、纯碱、氟化工等资本性支出同比增速领先项目在建工程（亿元）固定资产（亿元）资本性支出（亿元）经营性现金流净额（亿元）基础化工子行业2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速纯碱79.461.6%433.58.7%58.254.8%40.4-55.1%氯碱234.6-19.2%1308.65.6%113.0-26.6%148.217.3%无机盐46.733.8%265.73.7%96.3237.7%24.4-25.3%煤化工223.5-44.5%1210.124.2%147.8-23.5%246.727.9%钛白粉60.52.3%361.4-3.0%33.39.3%43.72.1%涂料油墨9.4-15.0%79.86.8%12.46.5%12.3-8.9%民爆制品25.633.1%322.921.4%34.710.7%59.2-10.3%纺织化学制品26.3-2.7%%14.3-8.6%72.4-29.9%氟化工196.722.4%457.014.5%115.034.7%113.1123.1%聚氨酯368.1-44.2%1654.631.0%316.3-14.2%342.111.6%食品及饲料添加剂133.830.6%764.25.9%146.312.2%207.7-1.0%有机硅343.6-7.3%408.3-2.1%25.0-64.2%56.9-12.5%胶黏剂及胶带11.1-29.3%61.818.2%13.2-21.4%5.9-60.2%涤纶22.9-69.3%427.128.3%86.14.6%68.9-13.5%粘胶6.9-41.7%155.48.1%9.0-27.9%6.021591.3%氨纶43.326.8%163.7-1.1%19.6-0.1%39.160.8%锦纶64.311.1%136.616.0%36.7-5.7%21.2103.4%改性塑料81.2-39.4%450.518.5%55.5-10.2%95.8109.8%合成树脂33.0-4.1%121.612.4%23.831.2%15.9-18.2%333.09.3%44.9-0.9%26.931.5%炭黑12.956.6%81.57.6%11.0-19.2%14.2102.3%橡胶助剂7.9-2.9%31.813.3%6.53.5%7.339.5%轮胎133.9-7.1%958.812.2%146.1-10.9%119.9-1.7%氮肥80.7-22.3%716.830.6%99.3-7.7%90.833.5%磷肥及磷化工119.514.8%752.41.9%86.833.0%133.3-13.7%钾肥23.8-61.9%249.332.8%38.70.7%169.351.9%4.6%53.5-3.8%90.6230.8%7.4%122.9-21.3%205.119.2%非金属材料26.213.1%132.63.0%14.7-14.5%16.3-27.3%3、石油石化：2026Q1，石油石化板块盈利能力改善，炼油化工利润同比增速领先我们选取石油石化板块43家沪深两市A（剔除ST、*ST，包括中国石油、中国石化，细分油气开采、油田服务、油气及炼化工程、油品石化贸易、62026Q1，石油石化板块利润同环比增长明显74523.3329218359.7-2.6%2.1613.638.222Q1744.32.9+2.19.3+158+9.7。-0.27pcts+0.79pcts+0.03pcts；3%-0.38pcts-2.39pcts。2026Q122.2%，同比+2.99pcts、环比+2.96pcts；归母净利率6.4%，同比+2.39pcts、环比+3.42pcts。期间费用：20253939.4530.2pc202Q413.2+1.1+72；+0.22pcts+1.3pcts929.45%+0.09pcts、环比-1.2pcts。资本开支：20256383.9-5.2%20256867.721483.8+7.7%。现金流：2025年，石油石化行业经营性现金流净额9299.6亿元，同比+4%。图1674523.33292（包括中国石油、中国石化）石油石化当期值（亿元）同比变化（pcts）环比变化（pcts）2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2025Q42026Q12020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2025Q42026Q12025Q42026Q1营业收入50451.367239.083548.181581.679316.374523.318359.718744.3-22.9%33.3%24.3%-2.4%-2.8%-6.0%-2.6%-2.9%-2.1%2.1%营业成本40746.153607.567894.165787.264166.360319.414830.114585.9-23.8%31.6%26.7%-3.1%-2.5%-6.0%-1.6%-6.5%-2.0%-1.6%毛利9705.213631.515654.115794.415149.914203.93529.64158.4-19.0%40.5%14.8%0.9%-4.1%-6.2%-6.4%12.3%-2.4%17.8%期间费用：3786.03659.63721.23949.43968.73939.41130.2929.4-1.0%-3.3%1.7%6.1%0.5%-0.7%1.1%-1.0%17.2%-17.8%其中：销售费用1423.21354.71342.41389.91320.91274.5341.4296.9-2.8%-4.8%-0.9%3.5%-5.0%-3.5%-2.5%-2.0%4.7%-13.1%管理费用1459.31395.91350.61435.21526.41541.6445.6358.4-1.0%-4.3%-3.24%6.3%6.4%1.0%-1.5%1.1%17.9%-19.6%研发费用352.9376.2450.6520.5583.1604.6618.7225.7152.86.6%19.8%15.5%12.0%3.7%2.3%8.0%12.8%67.1%-32.3%41.3516.8504.6117.5121.4-1.0%-13.1%10.8%6.6%-4.5%-2.4%10.4%-16.6%-5.8%3.3%归母净利润19800.52920.53809.83691.33720.83292.0546.01199.3-44.6%165.4%30.5%-3.1%0.8%-11.5%-13.6%15.8%-38.2%119.7%销售毛利率19.2%20.3%18.7%19.4%19.1%19.1%19.2%22.2%0.941.04-1.540.62-0.26-0.04-0.792.990.032.96期间费用率5.8%7.5%5.4%4.5%4.8%5.0%5.3%6.2%5.0%1.66-2.06-0.990.390.160.280.220.091.29-1.20其中：销售费用率2.2%2.8%2.0%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.9%1.6%0.58-0.81-0.410.10-0.040.040.000.010.29-0.28管理费用率2.3%2.9%2.1%1.6%1.8%1.9%2.1%2.4%1.9%0.64-0.82-0.460.140.170.140.030.070.59-0.51%1.2%0.8%0.21-0.08-0.050.090.050.070.120.110.53-0.41财务费用率%0.6%0.6%0.23-0.36-0.070.06-0.010.030.08-0.11-0.110.01归母净利率3.0%2.2%4.3%4.6%4.5%4.7%4.4%3.0%6.4%-0.852.160.22-0.040.17-0.27-0.381.03-2.393.42图17：石油石化板块资本开支及现金流：2025年，经营性现金流净额9299.6亿元，同比+4%（包括中国石油、中国石化）石油石化当期值/期末值（亿元）同比变化2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2026Q12020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y在建工程5234.64920.85974.35822.15304.47351.86867.77073.6-6.0%21.4%-2.5%-8.9%38.6%-6.6%固定资产17188.714607.815376.717367.419211.419946.121483.810764.6-15.0%5.3%12.9%10.6%3.8%7.7%资本性支出6584.05929.46523.56462.47198.16737.46383.91340.6-9.9%10.0%-0.9%11.4%-6.4%-5.2%经营性现金流净额6875.56528.78241.77940.09476.18941.39299.61368.5-5.0%26.2%-3.7%19.3%-5.6%4.0%18042.71400.9-10.8%。2025Q44706.2-4.8%、环比217.5-13%-42.1%4313.5-2.2%545.9+25.4%比+151%。盈利能力：202519.9%+0.32pcts-0.42pcts+0.1pcts-4.57pcts；-0.43pcts-5.25pcts+2.84pcts、环比+7.41pcts；归母净利率12.7%，同比+5.25pcts、环比+8.03pcts。期间费用：2025年，石油石化行业期间费用878.2亿元，同比+2.8%；期间费用4.9+042pc22544313+76.+04.；+4.22pcts+4.8pcts。2026Q1174-59.7%4%，同比-0.38pcts-5.13pcts。资本开支：2025年，石油石化行业资本性支出2119.8亿元，同比-8.6%。截至20252749.6-11.7%8501亿元，同比+6.6%。现金流：20253549.6亿元，同比+4.9%。图2251802.7614009108%（剔除中国石油、中国石化）石油石化当期值（亿元）同比变化（pcts）环比变化（pcts）2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2025Q42026Q12020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2025Q42026Q12025Q42026Q1营业收入10635.610053.113686.717974.819349.419190.818042.74706.24313.5-5.5%36.1%31.3%7.6%-0.8%-6.0%-4.8%-2.2%4.1%-8.3%营业成本8573.38298.910727.014421.115666.815424.714444.43893.33248.7-3.2%29.3%34.4%8.6%-1.5%-6.4%-4.9%-5.8%8.1%-16.6%毛利2062.31754.22959.73553.73682.53766.13598.4812.81064.8-14.9%68.7%20.1%3.6%2.3%-4.5%-4.3%10.5%-11.5%31.0%期间费用：493.1580.1674.1737.0799.5854.0878.2431.3174.017.6%16.2%9.3%8.5%6.8%2.8%76.3%-10.6%104.4%-59.7%其中：销售费用87.764.062.973.275.674.878.123.010.5-27.0%-1.8%16.4%3.3%-1.1%4.5%15.8%-45.1%23.5%-54.3%管理费用235.2243.2253.6273.3288.3296.0296.195.667.83.4%4.2%7.80%5.5%2.7%0.0%3.2%3.7%37.5%-29.2%研发费用102.3117.9168.5192.6223.8222.3224.575.243.515.2%42.9%14.3%16.2%-0.7%1.0%10.7%-5.6%43.8%-42.2%211.8261.0279.5237.552.3128.1%22.1%4.6%7.0%23.2%7.1%270.6%-18.5%236.9%-78.0%归母净利润475.21570.91400.9217.5545.9-39.0%121.4%28.5%-10.8%6.5%-10.8%-13.0%25.4%-42.1%151.0%销售毛利率19.4%17.4%21.6%19.8%19.0%19.6%19.9%17.3%24.7%-1.944.18-1.85-0.740.590.320.102.84-4.577.41期间费用率4.6%5.8%4.9%4.1%4.1%4.5%4.9%9.2%4.0%1.13-0.84-0.830.030.320.424.22-0.384.75-5.13其中：销售费用率0.8%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.2%-0.19-0.18-0.05-0.020.000.040.09-0.190.05-0.24管理费用率6%2.0%1.6%0.21-0.57-0.33-0.030.050.100.160.090.55-0.462%1.6%1.0%0.210.06-0.160.080.000.090.22-0.040.55-0.59财务费用率5%5.0%1.2%0.90-0.16-0.28-0.010.270.193.75-0.243.59-3.84归母净利率9.0%5.8%9.4%9.2%7.6%8.2%7.8%4.6%12.7%-3.173.62-0.21-1.570.56-0.42-0.432.79-5.258.03石油石化当期值/期末值（亿元）同比变化2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y2026Q12020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y在建工程1019.81451.02178.21892.91527.53114.62749.62880.442.3%50.1%-13.1%-19.3%103.9%-11.7%固定资产3930.54555.55199.16430.17620.67971.28501.05250.815.9%14.1%23.7%18.5%4.6%6.6%资本性支出1905.02050.22418.72299.62658.02318.82119.8506.87.6%18.0%-4.9%15.6%-12.8%-8.6%经营性现金流净额1745.21667.82575.22839.63295.43382.43549.6579.3-4.4%54.4%10.3%16.1%2.6%4.9%2026Q1工利润同比增速领先石油石化子行业营收增速：2025年，石油石化6个子行业中，有1个子行业营5(-15.4%)2026Q1，633(8.9%)(-18.2%)。2025624(57.5%)(-156%)63同比增长，有3个子行业归母净利润同比下降。归母净利润同比增速排名分别为：炼油化工(304.1%)、其他、油气开采、油田服务、油气及炼化工程、油品石化贸易(-42.2%)。图20：石油石化子行业经营情况：2026Q1，油气开采、油田服务营收同比增长（剔除中国石油、中国石化）项目营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）石油石化子行业2025Y同比增速2026Q1同比增速环比增速2025Y同比增速2026Q1同比增速环比增速油气开采4003.3-5.3%1165.68.5%35.2%1224.2-11.5%392.96.9%94.7%油402.41.0%-31.6%89.39.3%16.5-14.5%-4.7%油气及炼化工程1329.08.2%229.2-2.3%-57.2%22.1-18.4%5.8-25.8%4899.3%油品石化贸易401.3-15.4%92.8-18.2%-9.4%20.4-40.4%4.9-42.2%-14.0%炼油化工8684.5-8.6%1987.0-9.2%-8.1%51.357.5%106.8304.1%1569.0%其他1759.0-6.8%436.58.9%-4.6%-6.4-156.0%19.0236.0%237.5%项目销售毛利率（pcts）归母净利率（pcts）石油石化子行业2025Y同比2026Q1同比环比2025Y同比2026Q1同比环比油气开采51.4%-2.1751.1%-3.442.5330.6%-2.1533.7%-0.5010.31油田服务13.6%0.9213.5%0.640.894.8%0.424.1%-0.741.16油气及炼化工程9.2%-0.4710.7%1.022.091.7%-0.542.5%-0.802.51油品石化贸易19.1%0.0018.4%-1.10-7.635.1%-2.145.3%-2.20-0.28炼油化工11.5%1.5317.2%5.626.500.6%0.255.4%4.175.08其他4.9%-0.627.4%0.203.70-0.4%-0.984.4%2.947.3820256（1245(7.9%)(-43%)335(16.1%)(-2.1%)（3）2025245(3.9%)(-9.5%)。石油石化子行业现金流：2025年，石油石化6个子行业中，有3个子行业经营35(276.9%)(-12.6%)。图22：石油石化子行业资本开支及现金流：2025年，油品石化贸易板块在建工程下降明显（剔除中国石油、中国石化）项目在建工程（亿元）固定资产（亿元）资本性支出（亿元）经营性现金流净额（亿元）石油石2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速油.1%1123.2-9.5%2102.6-5.3%油田服务70.57.9%793.7-2.3%123.0-6.1%244.315.1%油气及炼化工程19.60.2%185.7-2.1%23.63.9%95.6276.9%油品石化贸易19.3-60.1%331.812.1%14.7-60.5%58.2-12.6%炼油化工993.9-16.1%6131.16.8%677.0-7.8%969.617.8%其他113.9-43.0%937.816.1%158.33.4%79.3-30.6%4、重点公司跟踪：2025年，亚钾国际、三美股份等营收同比增速居前，2026Q1多数龙头公司归母净利润同比增长我们选取万华化学、华鲁恒升、巨化股份、恒力石化等化工龙头上市公司进行分析，具体如下：证券简称营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）2025Y同比增速2026Q1同比增速环比增速2025Y同比增速2026Q1同比增速环比增速万华化学2,032.311.6%540.525.5%-8.4%125.3-3.9%37.220.6%10.3%盐湖股份155.02.4%64.394.9%46.5%84.881.8%30.3154.8%-23.8%恒力石化2,009.9-14.9%491.9-13.7%12.8%70.70.4%39.190.7%90.5%荣盛石化3,086.2-5.5%606.3-19.1%-25.0%8.517.1%28.2378.5%7114.1%新和成222.53.0%62.915.7%12.2%67.615.3%18.3-2.8%26.6%卫星化学460.70.9%126.82.8%12.2%53.1-12.5%21.235.0%36.1%巨化股份269.910.3%60.23.7%-8.8%37.894.3%11.745.9%119.2%东方盛虹1,255.9-8.8%320.25.7%-4.2%1.3105.8%14.3319.9%19430.6%华鲁恒升309.7-9.5%83.47.4%12.5%33.2-15.0%11.258.0%18.6%云天化484.1-21.5%119.8-8.1%10.8%51.6-3.4%14.210.4%233.5%华峰化学242.0-10.1%67.77.2%11.1%18.6-16.3%6.732.6%68.8%桐昆股份938.9-7.3%233.620.3%-11.8%20.369.1%19.0210.8%291.9%合盛硅业205.0-23.2%50.1-4.2%-5.4%-29.9-271.8%0.8-70.2%102.9%亚钾国际53.350.1%14.922.7%2.0%16.776.0%5.338.5%72.0%君正集团252.40.1%60.9-1.9%-7.0%33.218.3%7.2-28.8%38.1%昊华科技166.919.5%42.334.0%-3.6%14.437.1%3.166.7%44.7%金发科技654.08.1%155.9-0.5%-1.2%11.539.4%3.123.7%257.8%龙佰集团259.7-5.6%71.51.4%9.5%12.4-42.6%1.9-72.7%143.5%三美股份58.544.8%14.015.4%-1.6%20.6164.7%5.126.3%7.6%兴发集团293.03.2%74.53.1%35.0%14.9-6.8%2.6-17.4%47.8%博源化工120.7-9.0%27.2-5.2%-20.5%9.4-48.0%4.223.8%450.6%圣泉集团109.49.1%26.78.6%-6.7%10.116.0%1.8-14.2%-28.2%蓝晓科技27.99.1%6.15.2%-28.8%9.014.0%1.8-5.8%-25.9%新凤鸣715.66.7%175.320.4%-12.4%10.2-7.4%3.720.2%145.8%扬农化7.0%27.7%12.97.0%4.1-6.4%76.6%梅花生-4.5%-0.1%32.819.7%1.2-88.4%-53.9%图24：化工龙头白马盈利能力：2026Q1多数龙头公司销售净利率实现同环比提升证券简称销售毛利率（pcts）销售净利率（pcts）2025Y同比2026Q1同比环比2025Y同比2026Q1同比环比万华化学13.61%-2.5514.73%-0.980.706.91%-1.228.07%0.231.37盐湖股份57.86%6.0068.72%15.2814.2257.72%25.2554.26%13.85-39.36恒力石化13.14%3.2913.98%3.40%0.537.95%4.353.24荣盛石化12.22%0.7319.69%5.759.431.05%0.408.27%6.627.50新和成44.67%2.9042.88%-3.820.8030.57%3.2829.16%-5.543.35卫星化学22.31%-1.2524.34%2.66-2.9311.52%-1.7616.70%3.992.97巨化股份28.23%10.7334.39%5.978.0916.02%7.1221.62%6.1310.99东方盛虹10.77%2.3318.92%9.035.810.09%1.754.52%3.374.49华鲁恒升19.16%0.4422.28%5.930.6711.80%-0.4014.31%4.370.34云天化20.21%2.7119.56%2.331.5611.36%1.5412.54%1.809.03华峰化学13.19%-0.6518.46%4.997.967.73%-0.539.89%1.883.31桐昆股份5.51%0.879.09%1.384.342.19%0.988.15%4.996.30合盛硅业7.29%-13.2619.08%4.4614.39-14.78%-21.161.54%-3.3152.37亚钾国际58.57%9.1057.36%3.24-0.3031.34%5.5735.85%4.3714.78君正集团20.94%1.9219.82%-3.823.2313.28%1.8611.98%-4.494.01昊华科技25.25%3.5223.97%1.28-1.489.84%1.939.04%2.272.70金发科技13.33%2.0213.26%1.17-4.301.24%0.851.37%0.390.26龙佰集团21.05%-3.9614.75%-8.07-2.614.55%-3.592.94%-6.9210.60三美股6.733.2434.95%15.7635.74%2.913.07兴发集团17.96%-1.5613.67%0.74-9.375.50%-0.204.50%-0.121.86博源化工30.46%-10.4632.51%3.625.4512.24%-9.4220.12%2.9622.23圣泉集团25.18%1.5726.25%2.120.199.44%0.556.93%-1.86-1.82蓝晓科7.0832.41%1.3029.99%-3.901.19新凤鸣3.541.43%-0.222.10%-0.011.35扬农化工21.99%-1.1221.79%-2.851.0110.84%-0.6911.74%-1.683.24梅花生物19.00%-1.089.53%-15.07-2.5913.55%2.621.97%-14.28-2.30图25：化工龙头白马资本开支及现金流：2025年，龙头公司经营性现金流净额整体增长证券简称在建工程（亿元）固定资产（亿元）资本性支出（亿元）经营性现金流净额（亿元）2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速2025Y同比增速万华化学346.2-45.2%1,569.132.0%307.1-14.3%331.110.2%盐湖股份5.8-69.1%133.254.5%16.434.3%101.629.9%恒力石化291.6-24.1%1,472.60.2%71.1-67.4%311.236.9%荣盛石化378.5-14.0%2,546.79.5%426.835.1%454.131.2%新和成7.530.4%199.2-9.1%19.018.8%88.024.4%卫星化学39.841.1%247.3-8.3%26.6-15.3%96.1-9.3%巨化股份88.5238.4%110.0-6.9%56.2189.9%62.6126.4%东方盛虹128.0-48.9%1,394.69.6%86.6-31.8%160.553.3%华鲁恒升24.6-49.1%328.99.4%36.5-28.2%42.0-15.5%云天化25.415.6%201.5-2.3%22.829.8%90.9-15.5%华峰化学21.328.1%104.5-3.4%17.232.8%37.423.7%桐昆股份54.617.4%483.7-0.2%108.220.4%64.2-26.9%合盛硅业330.8-5.8%305.5-8.5%11.9-78.7%40.1-11.2%亚钾国际15.0-62.5%88.171.1%18.9-8.8%22.880.6%君正集团12.3-27.0%197.6-8.3%10.4-63.9%51.7111.0%昊华科技16.0-61.3%113.730.4%15.2-28.8%19.2160.5%金发科技26.9-63.0%252.518.9%23.3-2.3%59.0107.5%龙佰集团39.59.9%231.1-7.9%19.020.3%39.74.4%三美股份22.0225.8%12.010.6%13.684.2%21.6204.8%兴发集团32.830.1%306.01.0%22.549.6%16.21.7%博源化工45.1152.6%203.25.1%33.8152.8%25.6-43.2%圣泉集团15.212.7%56.211.9%8.8233.9%3.132.8%蓝晓科技3.7-0.5%8.016.3%1.2-35.4%7.97.3%新凤鸣9.1-86.0%340.335.4%74.15.0%47.2-30.5%扬农化工12.5-22.9%57.11.8%9.6-47.6%22.22.8%梅花生物3.4-52.8%124.19.5%20.94.0%40.1-13.3%图26：化工龙头白马资本开支及现金流：2026Q1，龙头公司在建工程规模整体下降证券简称在建工程（亿元）固定资产（亿元）资本性支出（亿元）经营性现金流净额（亿元）2026Q1同比增速2026Q1同比增速2026Q1同比增速2026Q1同比增速万华化学326.2-13.3%1,594.190.1%50.3-52.7%