2026年中宏观策略更新：从“过弯加油”到“入轨稳油”-中银国际

wan.zhang@bocigroup从“过弯加油”到“入轨稳From“AccelerationPost-turn”to“SteadyThrottleo增速同步加快，市场对宏观经济的乐观情绪持续重塑，经济基本面修复逻辑得到场信心改善有助于稳定人民币汇率，预计人民币汇率延续温和升值，年末汇率在n随着通胀水平的回升和出口增长表现强劲，预计货币政策在年内降息降准的概率胀复苏仍具有结构性特征，供强需弱困难突出，预计货币政策不会因为输入性通n经济结构转型期间财政政策在拉动内需中发挥了较为关键的增量作用。2026年3往的是，今年物价水平回升有望带动税收收入增长超明显分化：新经济板块一季度净利润同比增长22%，与全年盈利预测完全一致；传统行业净利润同比增长8%。我们认为，这种结构性分化伴随着3.家庭部门的消费信心和支出水平的恢复相对缓慢，居民资产负债表修复需要时间；在这一过程中，保持就业/收入的稳定依然是恢复消费的基本盘，但资本市而传导至消费的“新传导机制”正在稳步践行。于人工智能、先进制造业等战略赛道，同时强化资本市场的直接融资功能，以产业升级驱动长期增长。在新的宏观调控思路下，货币政策和财政政策虽然将继续(年末)至今，全球主要水道霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁，造成全球石油、天然气和化工产品供应铁、煤炭等行业价格跌幅收窄。四是居民消费支出转型但与此同时，由于房地产市场持续低迷，生猪需求回暖信号趋于明确，将直接激发企业扩产与研发积极性，进而带动就业岗位增消费与权益资产配置的动力将增强，有助于推动资金从沉淀状态转向流通状态。日本2020202120222023202420254M26(百分点)3.53.02.52.00.50.0(0.5)(1.0)食品居住医疗保健与文教娱乐交通和通信其他03/2012/2009/2106/2203/2312/2309/2406/2503/2612/26(2)(15)CPI-PPI(右轴)CPI(左轴)PPI(右轴)(同比%)50(10)(同比%)642007/207/2104/2207/2210/2204/2307/2310/2304/2407/2410/2404/2507/2510/2504/2660504030200(10)(20)(30)20002002200420062008200020022004200620082020202220242026252050(10)(15)(20)(25)PPI进口价格指数 2026-新86420GDP平减指数(右轴)CPI(左轴)PPI(左轴)(%)8642003/9309/9403/9603/9309/9403/9609/9703/9909/0003/0209/0303/0509/0603/0809/0903/2009/2103/2309/2403/264030200(10)(20)GDP:现价税收收入6.05.9(6.8)3..5.9(6.8)3..4.55.04.54.73Q203Q213Q223Q233Q243Q253Q26f4.82050(10)实际GDP当季同比增速平均增速07/2004/2110/2206/2303/2412/2408/2505/26(指数)7.47.27.06.86.6956.4906.2856.080美元兑人民币(左轴)美元指数(右轴)名义GDP增速(%)3Q224Q222Q233Q23 2Q26f3Q26f4Q26f25205005/2009/2105/2209/2305/2409/2505/266.06.87.07.27.4上证综合指数(左轴)美元兑人民币(右轴)(指数)5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,500尽管企业和政府部门均出现了明显的收入改善迹象，但家庭部门的消费信心和支出水07/2007/2102/2208/2202/2308/2302/2408/2403/2509/2503/26958565消费者信心指数:就业消费者信心指数:收入62.573.074.175.675.376.776.674.875.975.576.676.274.964.664.564.062.655.457.157.357.759.058.958.262.573.074.175.675.376.776.674.875.975.576.676.274.964.664.564.062.655.457.157.357.759.058.958.22020202120222023202420252026城镇家庭农村家庭8065605550中，和房地产相关的家电、家具、建筑装修材料等零售额与补贴退坡明显的汽车零售消费和信贷数据显示，尽管广义通胀水平回升，但由于居民资产结构仍以房地产为主，居民资产负债表修复需要时间；在这一过程中，保持就业/收入的稳定依然是恢消费的“新传导机制”正在稳步践行。对于宏观政策而言，这也意味着政策重心切03/2404/2405/2403/2404/2405/2406/2407/2408/2409/2410/2412/2402/2503/2504/2505/2506/2507/2508/2509/2510/2512/2502/2603/2604/2686420服务零售额商品零售04/2010/2004/2104/2210/2204/2310/2304/2410/2404/2510/2504/26过去12个月累计(2021.12=100)9585家用电器类家具类建筑及装潢材料类07/2007/2106/2212/2206/2305/2405/2510/2504/26过去12个月累计(2021.12=100)908060日用品类中西药品类食品饮料02/2008/2007/2106/2212/2206/2312/2305/2405/2510/2504/2630200(10)(20)(30)(40)(50)(60)商品房销售面积房屋新开工面积房地产开发投资07/2007/2106/2212/2206/2305/2405/2510/2504/26过去12个月累计(2021.12=100)908060文化办公用品类通讯器材类汽车类07/2007/2106/2212/2206/2305/2405/2510/2504/26过去12个月累计(2021.12=100)908060服装鞋帽针纺织品类化妆品类金银珠宝类04/0903/2006/2109/2202/2504/26(万亿人民币)200500居民户人民币存款余额(左轴)居民存款余额占总存款的比重(右轴)53514947454341393735个人住房贷款/GDP住户经营贷/GDP住户其他消费贷/GDP33.325.9403530252050三年来首次盈利修复，行业结构性分化显著。2026年一季度市场迎来三年以来首次整体盈利回暖，但板块表现出现明显分化：新经济板块一季度净利润同比增长22%，与全年盈利预测完全一致；传统行业净的产业升级信号，而非风险警示。确认今年是“拉估值+拼利润”的一年，新旧动能(倍)(亿元)(亿元)(倍)(倍)(亿元)(倍)45344061796919389-862同意共同构建建设性战略稳定关系，并达成经贸协议，双边关税税率预计保持稳定并受益于中美经贸关系稳定的窗口期和中国较强的电力和制造业供应能备的零附件、集成电路、机电产品、高技术产品出口同比分别高增141.7%、衰退，那么我们预计出口将同时受益于出口价格增速回升和数量稳定而延续较快增同比(%3个月移动平均)同比(%3个月移动平均)06/0708/0809/0906/0708/0809/0910/2012/2202/2403/2504/26,4030200(10)(20)06/0708/0809/0906/0708/0809/0910/2012/2202/2403/2504/26同比(%,3个月移动平均)4030200(10)(20)进口价格(人民币计价）进口价格(美元计价）进口数量04/2207/2210/2204/2307/2310/2304/2407/2410/2404/2507/2510/2504/2630200(10)(20)(30)04/2204/2207/2210/2204/2307/2310/2304/2407/2410/2404/2507/2510/2504/26,504030200(10)(20)25025083.775.868.2AI+新三样+交运设备83.754.147.635.431.425.621.135.431.47.75.24.74.2 (0.9)(1.3)(4.0)铜及铜材锂电池高新技术产品机电产品铝及铝材笔记本电脑通用设备旅行箱包钢材平板电脑入与爆发将成为拉动中国新经济利润的核心引擎。中国将以AI为收入陷阱，驱动科创与资产价值稳步提升。美国以AI为核心催化剂拉动制造业回参照通信、互联网行业长达十余年的长周期发展路径，全球人工智能产业格分化。国内AI产业加速崛起，海外相关无论从估值、现金流、业务采用与上量来看，AI整体没有泡沫；AI商政策重心切换：定力与转型并重在新的宏观调控思路下，货币政策和财政政策虽然将继续支持经济的稳定增长，但也会更加关注与经济的结构性转型需求相适配，一底以保证经济增长、社会就业和金融市场的基本稳定，但另一方面则会避免大水漫灌因此，随着通胀水平的回升和出口增长的强劲下降，央行在2026年5月发布的《第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》中，删除了或暗示短期内进一步宽松的紧迫性有所下降入性通胀不会改变以我为主的货币政策总基调。由于当前通胀复苏仍具有结构性特征，供强需弱的困难依然突出，预计货币政策也不会因为输入性通胀压力而明显收紧，而是继续保持相对宽松的流动性环境，但可能会更加我们认为，降息的信号效应太强，因此政策制定者可能更倾向“只动款”。现在的最优策略也是正在实施的策略是，是随着存款成本逐渐下行，银行净息差将被动修复，有助于防范金融风险。二是因为下行，有助于引导存款从银行搬家去消费、权益投资、实体投资。反之，如果直接降在企业部门，企业压力是缺少订单（需求），而不是“便宜的钱”（融资成本-扩张意愿）。企业不扩产、不投资，根本不是贷款利率5%还是4%的游需求，投了就产能过剩、亏钱。利率再低，企业也不会为了赚一点利息差，去在居民部门，家庭缺的是就业和收入信心，而不是融资的渠道。居民不消费，不买房，核心是缺乏收入预期和信心，焦虑资产缩水的风险。在这一背景下，房贷利率再降，只要预期房价不涨，家庭部门整体就缺乏加杠杆买房的动力；消费贷利率再低，），躺赢，私人部门倾向于延迟消费、延迟投资。相反，着持续贬值，居民会倾向把钱从银行存款里挪出来用于消费或投资；企业会加快采购、扩大产能，避免原材料涨价带来的成本上升。因此，通胀改变了货币的持有收益第二层，股市财富效应是最强的消费与投资催化剂（Mobility精髓）。财富效应下，首先是股市上涨带来居民股票、基金资产增值，账面财富明显增加。其次，财富效应中，居民一旦感觉自己变富，边际消费意愿提升，敢于消费和加杠杆。业股权估值提升，融资成本大幅下降，叠加居民部门需求回升，企更关键的是流动性变化打通了经济循环。银行存款是静止的财富因此，降息改变资金的成本，但股市和通胀改变的是所有人的财富总量与预期（焦），型与再平衡中，宏观政策已经在沿着上述思路调整，主要表现为一是不再执着于连续财政政策的协同，配合财政刺激，拉动需求，慢慢修复通胀，让资金从存款里动起由于经济结构转型期间，私人部门内生动力偏弱，财关键的增量作用。但随着经济增长和预期企稳，在财政预算安排上，2026年政府债专项债和特别国债的发行。同时，我们认为，不同以往的是，今年物价水平回升有望带动税收收入增长超出年初预算安排，叠加增加国有企业利润上缴，盘活国有资20072008200920072008200920202021202220232024202520262321975大型银行法定存款准备金率中小型银行法定存款准备金率50201820192020202120222023202420252026社会融资存量银行业总资产M2M15.05.04.54.03.53.02.52.02017201820192020202120222023202420252026央行7天逆回购利率DR0075YLPR200(10)人民币贷款2025/122026/04信托贷款企业债券债券贷款2.03.93.04.04.02.03.93.04.04.02020202120222023202420252026预测预算一般财政赤字率广义财政赤字率987654321006/2012/2007/2107/2202/2308/2303/2409/2403/2510/2504/264030200(10)地方财政支出(一般公共预算+政府性基金)增速全国财政支出(一般公共预算+政府性基金)增速中央财政支出(一般公共预算+政府性基金)增速4.865.090.80.80.54.865.090.80.80.50.34.44.412.0611.893.340.723.99.06一般国债地方一般债特别国债补充资本金国债地方专项债追加2026年(8.0%GDP)2025年(8.6%GDP)2024年(6.7%GDP)(万亿元)252050(10)(15)(20)(25)2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月2023202420252026ImportantdisclosuresandcBOCISecuritiesisavailableelectronicallyonwww.bociAppendix|Macro&Strategy|ChinaEconomy2June2026macroeconomy:asprojectedinour2026outlook(publishedon12Jan,2026),“CPIandPPIaresettostageatrendreversalaroundmid-yeaconsensus”.In4M26,bothPPoptimismregardingthemacroecoofeconomicfundamentalsrecovery.Impshouldbewellusedtoguidetheexpectationandfuelfurtherinflation.isexpectedtoslowinthefourtratecutwoulddeliverlimitedimpact,whileposingchallexpectedtotightensignificantlyinresponsetoimpnDuringtheeconomicresttreasurybonds.Atthesametime,weinitialbudgetprojections,providingsupportforfuturewan.zhang@bocigroup2.In1Q26,A-sharelistedcowan.zhang@bocigroupechoingthedecade-longexpansiontrajectoprofitresilience,establishingarequirestime;duringthisprocess,maintainingstableemploymentandincomeremainsthefoundationforconsumptionrecovery,butthe“reservoir”functionofcapitalmarketswillbethekeyincrementalfactortobrea“newtransmissionmechanism”–wherestockthatsubsequentlyfeedsintoconsumption–issteadilytakingshape.Formacroeconomicpolicy,posubsidiestowardtargetedsupportforAI,advancedmanufacturingandcapitalmarketdevelopmentwhileoverallpolicystancestayingpatientandsteadfast.Policyresourcesaregraduallybeingwithdrawnfrombroad-basedcintelligenceandadvancedneedsoftheeconomy’sstructuraltransformaSource:WIND,BOCISecuritiesDOMESTICMARKETREVIEW:THETURNINGPOINTHASARRIVED,ANDTHEIMPACTISTAKINGHOLDInflationExpectationsReverseBenefitingfromthereboundinCpositivegrowthrangThereboundininflationstrongglobaldemandforAIcapitalexpendicircuits,electronicequipmeequipment.Third,theongoingdomesticpushtoinhouseholdconsumptionspendingcontinuewell;thegrowthmomentumofthemedicalservicesCPIanremainedsluggish,andthefoodCPIreturnedtodeflationaryterritoryinfearsandimprovingbusinessconxpectationsofarecofaccelerationof8.9pptscomparedtoMarch,whileindustrialefullyearof2025rosebyby3.9%YoY,acceleratingfromthe0.8%growthrecordedforthefspecifically,Aprilsawan8.2%increase,whichwmayseeitsgrowthmomentumsldecline.Wehaveraclearer,thiswilldirectlystimulateenterprises’enthusiasmforexpandingproductionandR&D,therebydrivingjobcreation.Forthexpectationof“dilutedputoshiftfundsfromastagnantstatedemonstratesthatthe“threatofpthan“suppressingrealinterestrates”instimulatinginvestmentandrate.WeexpecttheRMBtocontinueitsmoderateappreciUSD/RMBexchangeratehoveringaroundFigure2.ContributionsofDif2020202120222023202420254M26OtherHealthcare,cultural,edu.&recreationFood(ppt)3.53.02.52.00.50.0(0.5)(1.0)Transport&telecomResidenceSource:WIND,BOCISecurities03/2009/2106/2203/2309/2406/2503/26(2)(15)CPI-PPI(右轴)CPI(左轴)PPI(右轴)YoY(%)50(10)YoY(%)6420Source:WIND,BOCISecurities07/207/2104/2207/2210/2204/2307/2310/2304/2407/2410/2404/2507/2510/2504/2660504030200(10)(20)(30)Source:WIND,BOCISecurities20002002200420062008200020022004200620082020202220242026YoY(%)252050(10)(15)(20)(25)PPIImportpriceindexSource:WIND,BOCISecurities 2026Eold2026Enew88642086420GDPdeflator(RHS)CPI(LHS)PPI(LHS)03/9309/9403/9609/9703/9909/0003/0203/9309/9403/9609/9703/9909/0003/0209/0303/0509/0603/0809/0903/2009/2103/2309/2403/26YoYYoY(%,YTD)4030200(10)(20)NominalGDPgrowthTaxincomeSource:WIND,BOCISecurities6.06.04.55.04.54.73Q20(6.8)3Q213Q223Q233Q243Q253Q26f4.8GDPgrowthAveragegrowth2050(10)YoY(%)Source:WIND,BOCISecuritiesotes:2021and2023averagegrowthis2Yaverage,2022averagegrowthis3Yaveragegrowt07/2004/2106/2303/2412/2408/2505/26(Index)7.47.27.06.86.6956.4906.2856.080US$/RMB(LHS)US$index(RHS)Source:WIND,BOCISecurities3Q224Q222Q233Q23 2Q26f3Q26f4Q26f25252050USChinaSource:WIND,BOCISecurities05/2009/2105/2209/2305/2409/2505/265,0006.05,0006.24,5006.44,0003,5004,0003,5006.87.03,0007.22,5007.42,500Shanghaicompositeindex(LHS)US$/RMB(RHS)Source:WIND,BOCISecuritiesdown0.8pptsYoY.Specifically,inthefirstquarter,disposa07/2007/2102/2208/2202/2308/2302/2408/2403/2509/2503/26958565ConsumeremploymentconfidenceConsumerincomeconfidenceSource:WIND,BOCISecurities73.074.175.675.376.776.674.875.975.576.676.274.962.564.664.564.062.655.457.157.357.759.058.958.273.074.175.675.376.776.674.875.975.576.676.274.962.564.664.564.062.655.457.157.357.759.058.958.2202020212022202320242025202680757065605550UrbanhouseholdRuralhouseholdSource:WIND,BOCISecurities2.1pptslowerthanthegrowthrateforthewholeof202by0.1%YoYagainstahighbsales,whichweresignificantlyaffeccontinuedtoshowupwardfullyearof2025.DrivAprilacceleratedcomparedtothefirstquarloansincreasedbyRMB119.9forthefullyearoftherestorationofhouseholdbalancesheetswilltaketimebecausethestructsurplusesdrivenbyrisinghouseholdinWebelievethatalthoughthecurrentrecoveryincowhileoverallpolicystancestayin03/2404/2403/2404/2405/2406/2407/2408/2409/2402/2503/2504/2505/2506/2507/2508/2509/2502/2603/2604/26YoY(%,YTD)86420ServiceretailsalesCommodityretailsalesSource:WIND,BOCISecurities04/2004/2104/2204/2304/2404/2504/26Rollingsumofpast12months(2021.12=100)958575Householdelectric&videoapplianceFurnitureConstruction&decorationmaterialSource:WIND,BOCISecurities07/2007/2106/2206/2305/2405/2504/26Rollingsumofpast12months(2021.12=100)8060DailyusegoodsChinese&westernmedicineFood,beverage,tobacco&liquorSource:WIND,BOCISecurities02/2008/2007/2106/2206/2305/2405/2504/26YoY(%)30200(10)(20)(30)(40)(50)(60)GFAsoldGFAnewstartedPropertyInvestmentSource:WIND,BOCISecurities07/2007/2106/2212/2206/2305/2405/2510/2504/26Rollingsumofpast12months(2021.12=100)90807060Cultural&officegoodsCommunicationapplianceAutomobile07/2007/2106/2212/2206/2305/2405/2504/26RollingRollingsumofpast12months(2021.12=100)90807060Clothing,shoes,hats&textileCosmeticsGold,silverandjewelrySource:WIND,BOCISecurities04/0904/0903/2006/2109/2202/2504/26(RMBbn)200500Balanceofhouseholdsavings(LHS)Shareofhouseholdsavingsintotalsavings(RHS)53514947454341393735Source:WIND,BOCISecuritiesIndividualhomemortgageloans/GDPHouseholdoperatingloans/GDPHouseholdotherconsumptionloans/GDP33.325.94030200Source:WIND,BOCISecuritieslinewithourfull-yearestimate,versusan8%YoYexpansionfortraditionalWeregardthisstructuraldivergfireandhalfcoldwater,asconstructiveratherthandetrimentalisthisyearisoneof“boostingvaluationsanddrivingprofits”;thetransitionbecatalystforstimulA-totalAnnualiA-sharesAnnualiA-AnnualiA- netgrowthrate(%)458345401794691938886-58652728Source:WIND,BOCISecuritiesNote:Excludeslarge-capstocks:CATL,KweichowMoutai,Sinopec,PetroChina,CNOOC,ChinaUnicom,ChinaMobile,ChinaTelecomEXTERNALTHEME:GREATPOWERRIVALRYANDTECHNOLOGICALSYNERGY(suchassummitmeetings)wouldcontinuetoadvance,withareductions.AccordingtopayastatevisittotheUSincoordinationandmaintainoverallstabilityinChina-UBenefitingfromawindowofstabilityinUS-Chinaeconomicomparedtoa20%declineforthefullyearof2025.Exportsofg23.9pptscomparedtothefull-yeargrowthratesof202Lookingaheadto2H26,iYoY(%3MMA)YoY(%3MMA)06/0708/0809/0906/0708/0809/0902/2403/2504/26,4030200(10)(20)Exportprice(RMB)Exportprice(US$)ExportvolumeSource:WIND,BOCISecurities06/0708/0809/0906/0708/0809/0902/2403/2504/26YoY(%,3MMA)4030200(10)(20)Importprice(RMB)Importprice(US$)ImportvolumeSource:WIND,BOCISecurities04/2207/2204/2307/2304/2407/2404/2507/2510/2504/26YoY(%,3MMA)30200(10)(20)(30)USNon-USareaSource:WIND,BOCISecuritiesYoY(%,3MMA)04/2204/2207/2204/2307/2304/2407/2404/2507/2504/26504030200(10)(20)AfricaASEANSouthAmericaSource:WIND,BOCISecurities7550250(25)(50)YoY(%,YTD)7550250(25)(50)75.883.775.868.2Labourintensivegoods54.1+Transporation+Transporationequipment++Electronicsassembly35.435.431.425.65.24.74.2(0.9)(1.3)(4.0)(10.1)(10.1)(14.1)(15.0)IntegratedcircuitsElectricvehiclesCopperproductsAutoLithium-ionbatteriesSolarcellsHi-techproductsShipsMechanical& electricalproductsAluminumproductMedicalequipmentPlasticproductsAutopartsLaptopsGeneralequipmentHomeapplianceTextileproductsMachinetoolsFurnitureClothingMobilephonesTravelgoods,bags&similararticlesSteelproductsToysFlatpanelcomputersSource:WIND,BOCISecuritiesprofitsinChina’sneweconomy.ChinawillresilienceintechnologyandvaluaDrawingparallelswiththedecade-longdevelopmentcontinuetodiverge.ThedomesticAIindustryisacceleratsectorasawholeshowsnosignsofacommercialization,bothcountriespossessopportunitiesforcertaingroSource:WIND,Bloomberg,BOCISecuritiesSHIFTINPOLICYFOCUS:BALANCINGSTEADFASTNESSANDTRANSFORMATIONPolicyresourcesaregraduallymovingawadvancedmanufacturing.Atthesametime,thedirectfinancingfunctionofcapitalUnderthisnewmacroeconomicpolicyframeconomicheadwindsintensify,counter-cyclicalpolicieswiensureeconomicgrowth,socotherhand,theywillavoidtraditional“flood-style”stimulusmodels,placinggreateremphasisonmeetingthedevelopmentneedsoftConsequently,withtheresurgenceofinflationandrobustexpemployingavarietyofmonetarypolicytools."Thitheurgencyforfurthereasinginconditions.Asthecurrentiisnotexpectedtotightensignificantlyduetoimporplacegreateremphasisonguardingagainsttheriskofidlefunds.TcorrespondingtotheircurrentlWebelievethatthesignalingeffectproactivelyloweringMLForLPRFirst,asdepositcos“theeconomyisstrugglingandthecentralbankisforcedtoeaseaggressively.”investments,andreal-econofluctuationsinexchangerates,capitalflows,andchannels,therebycomplicatingmacroeconomApartfromtheaforementionedfactors,simplylowerilimitedeffectonstimulatingdomesticdemandatthethecurrentdemandshortfa”ratherthanexcessivelyhighfinancingcosts.Spressureonenterprisesstemsfromalackoforders(of“cheapmoney”(financingcostsversuswillingnesstoexpand).Thereasonsmallinterestmargin.CitdoesnotcreateexpectationsofinvestmenfamilieslackisconfidenceinemploymentaAgainstthisbackdrop,evenimarketandtheinterbankmarket,cigeneratingrealeconomicactivitthattrulydrivesthebehavioFirst,moderateinflationwilldirectlyaltedeflationaryenvironment,cashiskprivatesectortendstopostponeconsumptinflationaryenvironment,holdingcashimpliescontinuousdinvestment;businesseswillaccelerateprocurementandexpantheexpectedreturnsonholdingmoney,therebyforcingcapSecond,thestockmarket’swealtheffectismorewillingtospendandtakeondebt.Finally,ascorporateequityvagenerateeconomicactivity.Incontrast,thestockmarketrewealth,withdailyfluctuationsaandshiftingwealthdistribution.Thisvolatilitydirectlystirseveryinflationreshapetheaggregatewealthandexpectations(oranxipopulation;inthecurrentoexplainswhypolicyisincreasinglylea”approach.Webelievetmacroeconomicpoliciesarealreadyintwoways:first,ashiftawayfromanobtocomplementfisc